经济学人 (The Economist)

本周世界发生了 (The world this week)

政治 (Politics)

稳定的政府。 (Stable government)

伊朗对以色列发动了前所未有的直接袭击，以报复四月初遭到打击，导致驻叙利亚首都大马士革使馆区内两名将军丧生的事件。伊朗发射的300多架无人机和导弹几乎全被成功拦截。美国、英国、法国、约旦和其他阿拉伯国家为以色列的防御做出了贡献。以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡表示，他的国家决心保卫自己。美国总统乔·拜登敦促他表现克制，以避免地区升级。

Iran launched an unprecedented direct attack on Israel in retaliation for a strike at the beginning of April that killed two generals at its embassy compound in Damascus, Syria’s capital. Almost all of the more than 300 drones and missiles launched by Iran were successfully intercepted. America, Britain, France, Jordan and other Arab states contributed to Israel’s defence. Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, said his country was determined to defend itself. Joe Biden, America’s president, urged him to show restraint to avoid regional escalation.

当地官员称，在西岸，有四名巴勒斯坦人被以色列定居者杀害。这些事件发生在暴力事件中，当时一名以色列14岁男孩被杀，以色列军队称这是一起恐怖袭击。

Local officials said that four Palestinians were killed by Israeli settlers in the West Bank. Their deaths took place amid violence that erupted after the killing of a 14-year-old Israeli boy in what the Israeli army said was a terrorist attack.

海湾国家遭受暴风雨袭击，导致洪水，造成20人死亡。阿拉伯联合酋长国迎来了有史以来降雨最多的一次，这已有75年的记录。世界第二繁忙的迪拜机场告诉乘客远离。

Gulf states were battered by storms that caused floods leading to the deaths of 20 people. The United Arab Emirates saw its heaviest rainfall since records began 75 years ago. Dubai airport, the world’s second-busiest, told passengers to stay away.

捐助方承诺向苏丹提供大约21亿美元的人道主义援助，苏丹因为一年前爆发的内战正面临世界上最大的人道主义危机。专家警告称，该国正陷入饥荒的掌控之中，可能导致50万人死亡。

Donors pledged around $2.1bn to humanitarian relief in Sudan, which is facing the world’s largest humanitarian crisis because of a year-old civil war. Experts warn that the country is entering the grip of famine, which could lead to 500,000 deaths.

加纳未能与其债权人达成债务宽减协议，这阻碍了其摆脱违约和经济危机的努力。如果没有足够大规模的债务减免，该国将无法获得国际货币基金组织的30亿美元援助。

Ghana failed to reach a deal on debt forgiveness with its creditors, which holds up its efforts to emerge from default and an economic crisis. Without a sufficiently large write-off of debt it will be unable to access a $3bn bail-out from the IMF.

尼日利亚通货膨胀率上升至33.2%，达到28年来的最高水平，原因是其货币奈拉价值暴跌。尽管央行提高了利率，但由于经济改革，包括取消燃油补贴，物价仍在上涨。

Nigeria’s inflation rate climbed to 33.2%, a 28-year high, following a collapse in the value of its currency, the naira. Although the central bank has increased interest rates, prices have continued to rise because of economic reforms, including the removal of a fuel subsidy.

新加坡总理李显龙宣布将于5月15日卸任，任职20年后。在一场早有计划的交接中，李先生将权力交给副手、同时也是财政部长黄循财，黄先生将成为新加坡历史上第四位总理。李显龙的父亲李光耀在1959年至1990年担任过这一职务。

The prime minister of Singapore, Lee Hsien Loong, announced that he would step down on May 15th, after 20 years in office. In a long-planned succession Mr Lee is handing the reins to Lawrence Wong, his deputy, who is also the finance minister. Mr Wong will be only the fourth prime minister in the city-state. Mr Lee’s father, Lee Kuan Yew, held the job from 1959 to 1990.

两起暴力事件震惊了悉尼。一名男子刺死了五名女性和一名男性，然后被一名女警射杀。作案者有心理问题。警方称另一起袭击是恐怖袭击，一名16岁男孩在直播中，刺伤一个亚述正教堂主教。外界的一伙人在教堂外与警方发生冲突，当时该男孩正在被看守。

Two violent incidents shocked Sydney. A man stabbed five women and a man to death, before he was shot dead by a policewoman. The perpetrator had mental-health issues. And in what police described as a terrorist attack, a 16-year-old boy stabbed and injured a bishop at an Assyrian Orthodox church during a mass that was being streamed live. A mob confronted police outside the church, where the boy was being held for his own safety.

澳大利亚工党政府宣布计划未来十年增加500亿澳元（320亿美元）的国防开支。这将使国防开支从国内生产总值的2%上升到2.4%。澳大利亚、美国和英国已建立了AUKUS安全协议，以抵制中国在亚太地区的野心。

Australia’s Labor government announced plans to increase defence spending by A$50bn ($32bn) over the next decade. That would raise defence spending from 2% of GDP to 2.4%. Australia, America and Britain have created the AUKUS security pact to counter Chinese ambitions in Asia Pacific.

海地政府宣布任命一个过渡委员会的成员，在此期间，当爱里尔·亨利正式辞去总理职务时，这个委员会将统治该国两年。亨利辞职是希望平息由实际控制该国的帮派引起的暴力增加。问题仍未缓解，主要机场和航运港口仍然关闭。尚未宣布委员会何时开始工作。

The government of Haiti named the members of a transitional council that will rule the country for two years when Ariel Henry formally steps down as prime minister. Mr Henry is resigning in the hope of quelling an increase in violence by gangs that in effect control the country. The trouble hasn’t abated and the main airport and shipping ports remains closed. It has not been announced when the council will start work.

美国将对委内瑞拉重新实施石油制裁，因其未遵循一项允许自由公平总统选举的协议精神。委内瑞拉当局随后禁止了反对派最受欢迎的候选人。美国公司必须在五月底前停止在该国能源领域的业务，尽管一些现有的销售委内瑞拉石油的许可证，如准许雪佛龙公司的许可证，仍然有效。

America is to reimpose oil sanctions on Venezuela for failing to keep to the spirit of an agreement to allow a free and fair presidential election. The Venezuelan authorities have since barred the opposition’s most popular candidate. American firms have until the end of May to wind down their business in the country’s energy sector, although some existing licences to sell Venezuelan oil, such as the one granted to Chevron, will still be valid.

美国民主党控制的参议院迅速投票否决了亚历杭德罗·梅约卡斯（Alejandro Mayorkas）国土安全部部长的弹劾，驳回了共和党声称梅约卡斯故意忽视边境安全法的指控。

The Democratic-controlled Senate in America voted swiftly to toss out the impeachment of Alejandro Mayorkas, the homeland security secretary, dismissing the trial and rejecting claims by Republicans that Mr Mayorkas had wilfully ignored border-security law.

前总统唐纳德·特朗普在纽约曼哈顿刑事法庭开始审判之前等待启动

在纽约进行了特朗普的第一次刑事审判，这是美国历史上前所未有的，无论是前总统还是现任总统。特朗普面临着非法隐瞒向一名色情明星支付封口费的指控，他对此予以否认。在陪审团遴选过程中，许多潜在陪审员因无法承诺保持中立而被驳回。这场审判可能持续六到八周。

The first-ever criminal trial of an American president, former or sitting, got under way in New York. Donald Trump faces charges of illegally concealing hush-money payments to a porn star, which he denies. Dozens of potential jurors were dismissed during jury selection because they could not promise to be impartial. The trial could last six to eight weeks.

美国众议院议长迈克·约翰逊推动了一套复杂的法案，旨在向**乌克兰、以色列和其他盟国提供 **军事援助。参议院通过了一项单一法案，但在众议院遇到了阻力，尤其是来自特朗普支持者，他们抱怨要给乌克兰提供更多资金。

Mike Johnson, the speaker of America’s House of Representatives, pushed forward with a complex package of bills that would provide military aid to Ukraine, Israel and other allies. The Senate had passed a single bill, but it ran into opposition in the House, not least from supporters of Mr Trump, who gripe about giving more funding to Ukraine.

同时，乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基表示，他的军队无法阻止一次摧毁电厂的俄罗斯袭击，因为”我们的导弹用完了”。此外，俄罗斯对乌克兰北部城市切尔尼戈夫进行的导弹袭击造成18人死亡。

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, said his army had been unable to thwart a Russian attack that destroyed a power plant, because “We ran out of missiles.” Separately, a Russian missile attack on Chernihiv, in northern Ukraine, killed 18 people.

在德国，警方逮捕了两名德国-俄罗斯男子，涉嫌为俄罗斯从事间谍活动。其中一名男子被怀疑计划破坏拜仁州的一家美国设施，该设施用于培训乌克兰军队。据称，他还曾于2014年至2016年在乌克兰顿涅茨克地区为亲俄武装作战。

In Germany police arrested two German-Russian men for allegedly spying for Russia. One of the men is suspected of planning to sabotage an American facility in Bavaria that trains Ukrainian troops. He is also thought to have fought for pro-Russian forces in the Ukrainian region of Donetsk from 2014 to 2016.

塔比里斯（格鲁吉亚首都）上演了大规模示威，抗议一项提案，该提案要求从国外获得20%以上资助的非政府组织和媒体公司实际上注册为外国代理。抗议者称该立法为“俄罗斯法”，因其与俄罗斯规定的相似性。

Mass demonstrations took place in Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia, against a proposed bill that would require NGOs and media companies that receive more than 20% of their funding from abroad to register in effect as foreign agents. The protesters call the legislation “the Russian law”, because of its similarity to rules in Russia.

比利时总理亚历山大·德·克洛尖锐批评了布鲁塞尔地区市长埃米尔·基尔的决定，要求警方关闭欧洲国家保守派的会议，这是欧洲的一个新兴政治联盟。会议的发言人包括在英国倡导英国退欧的奈杰尔·法拉奇和匈牙利民粹主义总理维克托·奥尔班。社会党成员基尔表示，他想要关闭会议是因为抗议者将目标对准了会场（法院不同意，会议继续举行）。自由主义者德·克洛表示：“禁止政治会议是违宪的。断乎不行。”

The prime minister of Belgium, Alexander De Croo, sharply criticised the decision by a district mayor in Brussels, Emir Kir, to order police to shut down a conference being held by national conservatives, an emerging political alliance in Europe. The event’s speakers included Nigel Farage, who championed Brexit in Britain, and Viktor Orban, the populist prime minister of Hungary. Mr Kir, a Socialist, said he wanted to shut the conference because protesters were targeting the venue (the courts disagreed and the conference resumed). Mr De Croo, a liberal, said that “Banning political meetings is unconstitutional. Full stop.”

欧盟一名商务特使，他是由欧洲委员会主席乌苏拉·冯德莱恩亲自挑选担任该职务，就在他本应上任几小时前辞职了。马库斯·皮波尔与冯德莱恩同属德国同一政党，但他在竞聘该职位的测试中得分比其他候选人低。

An envoy for business in the EU who was controversially hand-picked for the role by Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, quit just hours before he was supposed to start the job. Markus Pieper, who comes from the same party in Germany as Mrs von der Leyen, had scored lower on a test for the position than other candidates.

英国计划禁止2008年后出生的人购买香烟的提案通过了第一个重要难关。首相里修·苏纳克在下议院以383比67的投票获得胜利。许多反对该法案的人来自他自己的保守党；没有反对票来源于反对党工党议员。该法案现在进入下一个阶段。如果实施，该禁令将成为世界上最严格的之一。新西兰在今年早些时候放弃了类似的计划。

Britain’s plan to ban anybody born after 2008 from ever buying cigarettes passed its first big hurdle. Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, easily won a vote in the House of Commons by 383 to 67. A significant number of those who voted against the bill came from his own Conservative Party; no opposition Labour MPs voted against it. The bill now moves to its next stages. If implemented, the ban would be among the strictest in the world. New Zealand scrapped a similar plan earlier this year.

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本周世界 (The world this week)

商业 (Business)

数字游戏 (The numbers game)

随着对其电动汽车需求放缓，特斯拉据传将裁减其全球范围内约14,000个职位，相当于全球员工总数的10%。除此之外，两名高级主管宣布将离开该公司。特斯拉在今年第一季度的交付量下降。随着其他汽车制造商，尤其是在中国，加大对电动车雄心的投入，特斯拉正面临其曾在几年前独霸的市场中激烈竞争。其股价今年已下跌了37%。今年1月，特斯拉要求股东在6月份的年度股东大会上重新确认马斯克先生的薪酬，此前特拉华州的一家法院已裁定取消该举措。

As it adjusts to slower demand for its electric vehicles, Tesla is reportedly set to shed 10% of its global workforce, or around 14,000 jobs. Adding to the woes of Elon Musk’s firm, two senior executives said they were leaving. Tesla’s deliveries fell in the first quarter of this year. As other carmakers, especially in China, step up their EV ambitions, Tesla is facing intense competition in markets that it used to have to itself a few years ago. Its share price is down by 37% this year. The company wants shareholders to reaffirm Mr Musk’s pay at its annual general meeting in June, after a court in Delaware struck it down in January.

最新的国际货币基金组织（IMF）的估算表明，全球GDP有望在今年增长3.2%。该基金表示，世界经济“仍然表现出了相当弹性”，而从疫情中造成的“经济创伤”将比其之前预计的要少。对其追踪的最大经济体的预测进行了最大程度的提升，其中包括美国，IMF现在认为美国的GDP将增长2.7%，以及俄罗斯，预计将增长3.2%。

The latest estimates from the IMF suggest that global GDP is on track to grow by 3.2% this year. The fund said the world economy “remains remarkably resilient” and that there would be “less economic scarring” than it had thought from the pandemic. The biggest upgrades to its forecasts for the largest economies it tracks were for America, where the IMF now thinks GDP will expand by 2.7%, and Russia, projected to grow by 3.2%.

2024年第一季度，中国经济同比增长5.3%，超出预期，得益于工业生产增长6.1%。其中大部分增长发生在1月和2月。而3月份零售销售陷入困境，水泥产量下降，凸显出困扰该国房地产市场的问题。

China’s economy grew by a better-than-expected 5.3% in the first quarter of 2024, year on year, helped by a 6.1% rise in industrial production. Much of the growth came in January and February. In March retail sales struggled, and the output of cement plummeted, highlighting the problems besetting the country’s property market.

美国零售销售迅速增长的数据让市场感到不安，这是经济依然“火热”的另一证据。投资者推迟了对美联储降息的押注。他们还对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔关于通胀“持续时间比预期长”的言论感到不安，他表示通胀降至央行2%的目标将需要更长时间。

Markets were rattled by figures that showed retail sales growing rapidly in America, more evidence that the economy remains red-hot. Investors pushed back their bets on an interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve. They were also perturbed by comments from Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chairman, about inflation taking “longer than expected” to fall to the central bank’s 2% target.

英国3月份的年度通胀率降至3.2%，低于2月份的3.4%。英国的通胀率现在低于美国的3.5%，但高于欧元区的2.4%。尽管如此，这些数据让交易员认为英国央行可能要等到9月或11月才会降息。

Britain’s annual inflation rate slowed to 3.2% in March, from 3.4% in February. Inflation is now lower in Britain than in America, where it is 3.5%, but higher than the euro area, where it stands at 2.4%. Still, the figures caused traders to think that the Bank of England might not reduce interest rates until September or November.

高盛集团发布了一组季度收益数据，这让投资者感到欣慰。第一季度净利润同比激增28%，达到41亿美元，其中投资银行收入增长32%，交易收入增长10%。这些结果减轻了首席执行官大卫·所罗门的一些压力，在即将到来的年度股东大会上，他面临一项股东提议反对其薪酬奖励。

Goldman Sachs released a set of quarterly earnings that at last delighted investors. Net profit surged by 28% in the first quarter, year on year, to $4.1bn, helped by a 32% jump in revenue from investment banking and a 10% rise in revenue from trading. The results take some of the pressure off David Solomon, the bank’s chief executive, who faces a shareholder proposal at the impending annual general meeting to vote against his pay award.

微软宣布向位于阿布扎比的人工智能技术公司G42投资15亿美元。该公司得到了拜登政府的支持，后者说服G42撤资于中国，专注于美国。

Microsoft announced a $1.5bn strategic investment in G42, a firm developing artificial-intelligence technology in Abu Dhabi, which is backed by the emirate’s government. The deal has the blessing of the Biden administration, which persuaded G42 to divest from China and focus on America.

当ASML报告季度销售额大幅下降时，这家欧洲市值最高的科技公司的魅力有所减退。该公司供应的光刻机是芯片制造中的重要组件，其订单簿价值在2023年第四季度的92亿欧元的基础上，在今年第一季度暴跌至36亿欧元。ASML预计下半年将更强劲，“与行业从芯片周期低谷中持续复苏相一致”。

A little of the shine came off ASML, Europe’s most valuable tech company, when it reported a big drop in quarterly sales. The value of the company’s order book for the lithography machines it supplies, which are an essential component in chip manufacturing, plunged to €3.6bn ($3.8bn) in the first quarter, from €9.2bn in the final quarter of 2023. ASML expects the second half of the year to be stronger “in line with the industry’s continued recovery from the downturn” in the chip cycle.

路易·威登集团（LVMH） 迎来自三年前疫情后的繁荣以来最疲软的销售增长季度。这家奢侈品公司在2024年首三个月的香槟和手表及珠宝销售收入大幅下降，尽管在日本的销售增长达到两位数，得益于日元贬值和中国游客的涌入。同时，LVMH的老板伯纳德·阿诺 (Bernard Arnault) 为加强继任计划，要求股东批准将其两位儿子加入董事会；他们加入了其他两位兄弟。

LVMH saw its weakest quarter for sales growth since the post-pandemic boom three years ago. The luxury-goods company recorded a big drop in revenue from champagne and watches and jewellery in the first three months of 2024, though sales in Japan grew by double digits, helped by the weak yen and an influx of Chinese shoppers. Meanwhile Bernard Arnault, LVMH’s boss, shored up his succession plan by asking shareholders to approve the addition of two of his sons to the board; they join two other siblings.

作为欧洲最有价值的科技公司，CVC 资本合伙公司宣布有意在阿姆斯特丹的欧洲交易所上市。CVC原计划在2022年进行首次公开募股，但随后遭遇了俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的挫折。该公司去年也曾考虑过上市，但在去年11月因市场不确定性而推迟。

CVC Capital Partners, one of Europe’s biggest private-equity firms, announced its intention to list shares on the Euronext exchange in Amsterdam. CVC had planned an IPO in 2022, which was upended by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It also considered a float last year, but postponed it in November amid market uncertainties.

在三十年来首次出现年度亏损之后，阿迪达斯在第一季度强劲销售的支持下，提高了全年利润指引。然而，出现了新的声誉问题，即英国首相里希·苏纳克喜欢其流行的Samba运动鞋的事实。一家报纸曾将苏纳克形容为“怪异的科技男”，最近他为降低这双鞋子的潮流感而幽默“诚恳”道歉，他表示自己已经“穿了很多年”这款鞋子。

Following its first annual loss in three decades, Adidas raised its profit guidance for the year on the back of strong sales in the first quarter. Adidas may face a new reputational problem, however, with the revelation that Rishi Sunak, Britain’s prime minister, has a penchant for its popular Samba trainers. Mr Sunak, whom one newspaper has described as a “geeky tech bro”, recently made a humorous “fulsome” apology for reducing the hip appeal of the shoes. I’ve worn them for “many, many years”, he said.

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本周世界大事 (The world this week)

KAL的漫画 (KAL’s cartoon)

2024年4月20日的本周世界大事。 (The world this week April 20th 2024)

深入探讨本周漫画的主题： 美国利率不太可能在今年下降 美国人何时会看到那些利率下调？美国的通胀困扰变得更加严重 [2022年6月]

Dig deeper into the subject of this week’s cartoon:America’s interest rates are unlikely to fall this year When will Americans see those interest-rate cuts?America’s inflation headache gets worse [June 2022]

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这周世界 (The world this week)

本周封面 (This week’s cover)

我们看待世界的方式 (How we saw the world)

本周的封面故事关注了对Z世代（即1997年至2012年之间出生的人群）感到乐观的原因。普遍看法认为智能手机让他们变得不快乐，并且他们的生活将比前辈更为黯淡。然而，这里有一个重要的遗漏：大约四分之四生活在新兴经济体中。他们比父母更富裕、更健康、更受教育；那些拥有智能手机的人则更加了解信息且联系更便利。

This week’s cover looks at reasons to feel optimistic about Generation Z, or the group of people born between 1997 and 2012. The popular view is that smartphones have made them miserable and they will live grimmer lives than their elders. However, this makes an important omission: roughly four-fifths live in emerging economies. They are richer, healthier and more educated than their parents were; those who have smartphones are better informed and connected.

在富裕世界，Z世代的工资增长速度要快得多，比老年工作者的增长速度要快，而富裕世界的青年失业率也达到了数十年来的最低水平。得益于Z世代的工资增长更强劲，房价与收入之比大致处于十年前千禧一代时的水平。

In the rich world, wages for Gen Z are rising at a much faster pace than they are for older workers, and the youth-unemployment rate across the rich world is at its lowest in decades. Thanks to Gen Z-ers’ stronger wage growth, house prices as a multiple of earnings are roughly where they were for millennials a decade ago.

老人担心年轻人是很自然的。Z世代一直处在技术革命的最前沿。社交媒体带来了利益，同时也带来了成本。如果对Z世代的处境的担忧能够导致更好的心理健康治疗，或减少对房屋建设的限制，那就太好了。但也要庆贺Z世代的机智和成就。

It is only natural for the old to worry about the young. Gen Z has been at the sharp end of a technological revolution. Social media have brought benefits—and costs. If worries about Gen Z’s lot lead to better mental-health treatment, or fewer restrictions on building homes, well and good. But celebrate Gen Z’s resourcefulness, and its successes, too.

导言： 对Z世代感到快乐的理由 金融与经济： Z世代的财富空前丰厚 科学与技术： 屏幕时间对儿童有何影响？

Leader: Reasons to be cheerful about Generation ZFinance & economics: Generation Z is unprecedently richScience & technology: What is screen time doing to children?

回到目录

领袖 | OK Zoomer (Leaders | OK Zoomer)

对Z世代感到高兴的理由 (Reasons to be cheerful about Generation Z)

他们不注定贫困和焦虑 (They are not doomed to be poor and anxious)

一个巨大的群体正进入青年时期。全球范围内，约有20亿人出生于1997年至2012年之间，因此属于“Z世代”。在美国和英国，这个群体占总人口的五分之一，与婴儿潮一代所占比例相当；在印度和尼日利亚，年轻人的数量远远超过老年人。对于每一代人，都存在一个简单的故事：比如说，婴儿潮一代受到战后繁荣的影响，或者千禧一代受到2007年至2009年的金融危机的影响。对于Z世代，普遍看法是智能手机让他们变得不快乐，并且他们将过着比长辈更加阴暗的生活。

A vast cohort is coming of age. Globally, some 2bn people were born between 1997 and 2012, and so are part of “Generation Z”. In America and Britain this group makes up a fifth of the population, rivalling the share of baby-boomers; in India and Nigeria the young far outnumber the old. For each generation there is a simple narrative: that boomers were shaped by post-war plenty, for example, or millennials by the financial crisis of 2007-09. For Gen Z the popular view is that smartphones have made them miserable and they will live grimmer lives than their elders.

在西方，越来越多的人告诉民意调查员，如今的孩子将比他们的父母更加不幸。年轻人们自己担心诸如购买房屋的困难以及气候变化带来的迫在眉睫的危险。社会科学家担心Z世代花费他们的成长时光在毒性信息的持续浏览并且遭受FOMO的困扰，如今正陷入焦虑和抑郁的流行潮。美国和英国的政治家们正在考虑禁止智能手机并限制未满16岁的青少年使用社交媒体；世界各地的父母和教师都在努力管理屏幕时间。

More and more people in the West tell pollsters that today’s children will be worse off than their parents. Youngsters themselves worry about everything from the difficulty of buying a home to the looming dangers from climate change. Social scientists fret that Gen Z-ers, having spent their formative years doomscrolling and suffering from FOMO, are now gripped by an epidemic of anxiety and depression. Politicians in America and Britain are mulling banning smartphones and restricting social media for the under-16s; parents and schoolteachers everywhere are trying to police screen time.

但所有这些可能让人难以对Z世代感到乐观。然而，当你环顾世界，以及更广泛的衡量标准时，Z世代远非一蹶不振。在许多方面，他们表现得相当不错。

More on this topic:Generation Z is unprecedentedly rich What is screen time doing to children?Why so many Chinese graduates cannot find work

首先，这个普遍看法忽略了一个重要的事实：生活在新兴经济体中的约四分之四的12至27岁人口。由于经济增长和技术的传播，像雅加达、孟买或内罗毕这样的地方的年轻人比他们的父母要富裕得多。他们更富有、更健康、更受教育；那些拥有智能手机的人信息更为丰富并且更加联络。难怪，在联合国2021年的一项调查中，新兴经济体的年轻人比富裕世界的年轻人更加乐观。

All this can make it hard to feel optimistic about Gen Z. But when you look around the world, and at a wider set of measures, the Zoomers are far from doomed. In many respects, they are doing rather well.

然而，在一些地方，人们担心近几十年的快速进展可能不会重演。这种担忧在中国中显而易见。由于经济不确定性以及高等教育过度强调数量而非质量，超过三分之一的持有学位的人可能失业。

For a start, the popular narrative makes an important omission: the roughly four-fifths of the world’s 12- to 27-year-olds who live in emerging economies. Thanks to growth and the spread of technology, youngsters in places like Jakarta, Mumbai or Nairobi are far better off than their parents were. They are richer, healthier and more educated; those who have smartphones are better informed and connected. Small wonder that, in a survey by the UN in 2021, the young in emerging economies were more optimistic than those in the rich world.

在富裕世界，情况比人们想象的要好。Z世代中工作的人——在美国，现在工作场所中的他们几乎和婴儿潮一代一样多——生活得不错。对工人的强烈需求有所帮助，另外Z世代正明智地习得有市场价值的技能。他们中间更多的人正在追求理科、工程和医学学位；人文学科已经不再那么受欢迎。

Yet in some places there is a fear that the rapid progress of recent decades might fail to repeat itself. That anxiety is evident in China. Thanks to economic uncertainty and an emphasis on quantity over quality in higher education, over a third of degree-holders there may be unemployed.

Z世代的工资上涨速度远远快于老年工作者，富裕世界范围内的青年失业率达到几十年来的最低水平。在美国，根据税收和转移支付进行调整后，Z世代平均收入在实际意义上明显超过了同龄的千禧一代或X世代。的确，自上世纪80年代以来，住房的可负担性恶化了。但由于Z世代工资增长更为强劲，房价与收入的比值大致与十年前的千禧一代相当。如今的年轻人至少能够将更多的工资存入储蓄。

In the rich world the picture is rosier than people think. Those of Gen Z who are in work—and in America there are nearly as many of them in workplaces now as there are boomers—are doing nicely. Red-hot demand for workers helps, as does the fact that Gen Z-ers are wisely acquiring marketable skills. More of them are pursuing science, engineering and medical degrees; the humanities have fallen out of favour.

Z世代已经开始改变职场。他们有谈判能力——而且他们知道。许多千禧一代是在全球金融危机的阴影中成长起来的；他们感到如此脆弱，以至于不敢要求加薪。Z世代似乎对于为更好的机会而辞职或慢慢享受生活并没有太多顾虑。老板们，不习惯处于被动地位，抱怨不已。但如果总体工资和福利有所提高，年长工作者们会默默感激的。

Wages for Gen Z are rising at a much faster pace than they are for older workers, and the youth-unemployment rate across the rich world is at its lowest in decades. In America the income of the average Zoomer, after adjusting for taxes and transfers, comfortably exceeds that of a millennial or a Gen X-er at the same age, in real terms. True, housing affordability has worsened since the 1980s. But, thanks to Gen Z-ers’ stronger wage growth, house prices as a multiple of earnings are roughly where they were for millennials a decade ago. And young people today are at least able to put more of their salaries into savings.

Z世代还将通过其他方式塑造社会。年轻人对气候变化的关注将在他们达到投票年龄时促使各国更有可能采取行动。更广泛地看，Z世代告诉民意调查员他们希望有更大的政府。当他们不得不支付更多税款时，他们可能会改变想法——或者不会。

Already Gen Z-ers are transforming the world of work. They have bargaining power—and they know it. Many millennials came of age in the shadow of the global financial crisis; they felt so precarious that they were afraid to ask for pay rises. Gen Z seems to have fewer qualms about quitting for a better opportunity, or taking things slowly and enjoying life. Bosses, unused to being on the back foot, complain. But older workers will be quietly thankful if overall pay and perks go up.

他们是一群认真的人，不太喜欢熬夜、酗酒和滥交，与他们的长辈相比。这其中也存在着一面暗淡的部分。他们现实生活中社交较少，性生活减少，更容易表示自己感到孤独。在西方许多地方，焦虑和抑郁的报告率正在上升。其中一些可能反映了对心理健康更大程度上开放的态度。但其他因素也在起作用。

Gen Z will shape society in other ways, too. Young people’s concern about climate change will, as they reach voting age, make states more likely to act. More broadly, Zoomers tell pollsters they want bigger government. They may change their minds when they have to pay more taxes—or they may not.

关于社交媒体在年轻人中引发心理困扰的程度存在激烈辩论。在西方，焦虑的增加与社交媒体的采用是同时发生的。然而，关于因果关系的确凿证据有限，大部分来自富裕世界成年人的研究。

They are a serious bunch, less given to late nights, binge drinking and promiscuity than their elders were. There is a dark side to this. They socialise in person less, have less sex, and are more likely to say they are lonely. Reported rates of anxiety and depression are rising in much of the West. Some of this probably reflects a greater willingness to open up about mental health. But other factors play a role.

清楚的是，Z 一代已经置身于技术革命的尖端。智能手机的普及速度，以及随后社交媒体应用的全球普及，使用户，尤其是年轻人，不得不争分夺秒地摸索如何最好地使用它们。社交媒体带来了好处，比如娱乐和联系，但也有成本。一些内容可能有害，而花在刷屏上的时间本可以用来学习或睡觉。

The extent to which social media fuel mental distress among the young is furiously debated. In the West the rise in anxiety coincides with the adoption of social media. However, hard evidence of causation is limited, and most of it comes from studies of adults in the rich world.

革命性技术往往会有不利影响。过去，人们已经适应过：想想那些让汽车更安全的安全带和规定。令人欣慰的是，有迹象显示社交媒体习惯已经在转变，用户在衡量成本和收益时。例如，许多人不再公开发帖，而是转向在消息传送应用上私下成立群组。到目前为止，并没有证据证明应该全面禁止年轻人使用智能手机，尽管学校可以自由地禁止他们带入教室，而家长有权限制孩子的屏幕时间。

What is clear is that Generation Z has been at the sharp end of a technological revolution. The speed with which smartphones and then social-media apps were adopted around the world left users, and young people in particular, scrambling to figure out how best to navigate them. Social media have brought benefits, such as entertainment and connectivity, but also costs. Some content may be harmful, and time spent scrolling could have been devoted to study or sleep.

老年人担心年轻人是很自然的。如果这导致更好的心理治疗，或者减少对建造更多住房的限制，那是好事。但也要庆祝 Z 一代的机智和成功。 ■

Transformative technologies often have downsides. In the past, people have adapted: think of the seat belts and regulations that made cars less deadly. Encouragingly, there are signs that social-media habits are already shifting as users weigh the costs and the benefits. Instead of posting about themselves publicly, for example, many are retreating to private groups on messaging apps. So far, the evidence that would justify a blanket ban on smartphones for the young does not exist, though schools should be free to bar them from classrooms, and parents are right to restrict screen time.

It is only natural for the old to worry about the young. If that leads to better mental-health treatment, or fewer restrictions on building more homes, well and good. But celebrate Gen Z’s resourcefulness, and its successes, too. ■

回到目录

领导人 | 莫迪的强势 (Leaders | The Modi juggernaut)

印度的民主需要更强大的反对派 (India’s democracy needs a stronger opposition)

国大党在世界最大选举中将会受挫。 (The Congress party is set for a drubbing in the world’s biggest election)

在接下来的六周里，将有近10亿印度人投票。如果民意调查是准确的，这次大选将是印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪的胜利。他的印度人民党（bjp）将获得另一个庞大的多数席位；他将连任第三届总理。对于反对派来说，灾难已经近在眼前。领导印度独立斗争并在之后数十年主导政治的国大党，将迎来第三次连败。幸运的话，这将是迫使其改革的舒->坡特瑞时刻：印度民主的健康取决于此。

Over the next six weeks nearly a billion Indians will cast their votes. If the polls are right, the general election will be a triumph for Narendra Modi, the prime minister. His Bharatiya Janata Party (bjp) will secure another big majority; he will serve a third term. For the opposition, disaster beckons. The Congress party, which led the struggle for Indian independence and dominated politics for decades afterwards, is headed for a third consecutive defeat. With luck, this will be a Schumpeterian moment that forces it to reform: the health of India’s democracy depends on it.

很难过高估国大党在现代印度中所扮演的角色。在圣雄甘地的领导下，该党组织了（主要是非暴力的）反抗英国帝国主义。在贾瓦哈拉尔·尼赫鲁及其继任者的领导下，该党统治印度54年，将自己定位为一个民族团结、多信仰、中左翼运动。

It is hard to overstate the role Congress has played in modern India. Under Mahatma Gandhi it marshalled (largely non-violent) resistance to British imperialism. Under Jawaharlal Nehru and his successors it ruled India for 54 years, positioning itself as a one-nation, multi-faith, left-of-centre movement.

阅读更多有关印度大选

Read more of our coverage of the Indian election

然而，它仍然是一个家族企业。尼赫鲁及其后代几乎自1947年独立以来，一直领导着该党、或者印度、或者两者。国大党当前的事实领袖是尼赫鲁的曾孙，拉胡尔·甘地（与圣雄甘地无关）。在他领导下，国大党不被期望能够在2019年的20%得票率上有所提高，而这已经从上世纪80年代的将近50%下降。这可能导致在议会中仅有10%甚至更少的席位。

Yet it remains a family firm. Nehru and his descendants have led the party, or India, or both almost continuously since independence in 1947. Congress’s current de facto leader is Nehru’s great-grandson, Rahul Gandhi (who is not related to the Mahatma). Under him, Congress is not expected to improve much on the 20% of the vote it won in 2019, down from nearly 50% in the 1980s. That could translate into a paltry 10% or less of seats in parliament.

国大党抱怨说比赛是被操纵的。莫迪压制了异议，威胁了媒体，骚扰了他的对手。另一反对派团体人民党的阿温德·凯杰里瓦尔最近成为第一位被逮捕的现任首席部长。去年，甘地因讽刺莫迪的名字而被认定为诽谤罪名（最高法院暂时执行了两年的监禁刑期）而被停止议会4个月。国大党的银行账户也被冻结。

Congress complains that the contest is rigged. Mr Modi has stifled dissent, cowed the media and harassed his opponents. Arvind Kejriwal of the Aam Aadmi Party, another opposition group, recently became the first sitting chief minister to be arrested. Last year Mr Gandhi was suspended from parliament for four months after being convicted of defamation for mocking Mr Modi’s name (the Supreme Court suspended a two-year jail sentence). Congress has had its bank accounts frozen.

但是，扭曲的比赛环境只是问题的一部分。莫迪是一位非常有才华的政治家。在一些民意调查中，他的支持率超过了75%。他那强硬的个性，将印度教的沙文主义和对穆斯林的攻击与对经济发展和国家复兴的强调相结合，吸引了许多印度人。他强有力的雄辩和作为茶贩之子的谦卑背景帮助他与普通民众建立联系。相比之下，拉胡尔·甘地容易被认为是一个领导着一个僵化党派的特权业余者，缺乏足够的才能或者治理世界上最人口稠密国家的想法。

But a skewed playing field is only part of the problem. Mr Modi is an exceptionally gifted politician. His approval rating, in some polls, is over 75%. His strongman persona, combining Hindu chauvinism and Muslim-bashing with an emphasis on economic development and national renewal, appeals to many Indians. His powerful oratory and humble roots as the son of a tea-seller help him connect with ordinary folk. By contrast, Rahul Gandhi is easy to dismiss as a privileged amateur leading an ossified party with neither the talent nor the ideas to govern the world’s most populous country.

一次重大的选举失败应该成为印度反对派的明晰时刻。寻求一种与bjp不同的选择是强烈的：超过一半的选民支持其他政党。麻烦的是，这些主要是一团无法合理期望取得全国权力的地区运动。国大党仍然是领导全国反对派的最好选择，但为了这样做，它必须改变。

A big electoral defeat should be a clarifying moment for India’s opposition. There is strong demand for an alternative to the bjp: more than half of voters support other parties. The trouble is, these are mostly a mosaic of regional movements that cannot plausibly aspire to national power. Congress is still the best bet to lead a national opposition, but to do so it must change.

首先，甘地家族及其周围的党内长老应让出位置，让年轻、更有活力的领导人来接替。其次，国大党必须转变其沟通方式，而不仅仅是抱怨媒体偏见和审查制度。正如我们对莫迪月度节目的分析所述，他已经掌握了利用技术与普通印度人沟通的方法，传播途径从YouTube到WhatsApp不等。国大党必须学会竞争。

First, the Gandhi family, and the party elders around them, should make way for younger, more dynamic leaders. Second, Congress must transform how it communicates, not just grumble about media bias and censorship. Mr Modi has mastered technology to reach ordinary Indians, as our analysis of his monthly show, relayed on everything from YouTube to WhatsApp, illustrates. Congress must learn to compete.

最后，国大党需要更好的想法，而不是过去福利主义的懦弱复刻，或抱怨bjp窃取了其更具创新性的政策，比如印度的数字身份计划。莫迪的经济管理能力一直很出色，但印度面临着诸多难题，从改善糟糕的学校到管理农村到城市的迁移。

Finally, Congress needs better ideas, rather than a timid reheating of the welfarism of the past or griping that the BJP has stolen its more innovative policies, such as India’s digital identity scheme. Mr Modi’s economic management has been competent, but India faces giant problems, from improving its dismal schools to managing migration from farms to cities.

为了避免滑入专制，印度需要一个严肃的反对派，即像bjp一样有能力但不那么分裂。如果国大党不作出改变，那么它那些年轻、想要改革的人应该分裂出去创立一个新的运动。莫迪已经改变了印度政治。是时候让反对派重塑自己了。■

To avoid sliding into autocracy, India needs a serious opposition, as capable as the BJP but less divisive. If Congress does not change, its young, would-be reformers should split and create a new movement. Mr Modi has remade Indian politics. Time for the opposition to remake itself.■

回到目录

领导者 | 中东陷入火海 (Leaders | The Middle East on fire)

以色列不应急于对伊朗展开报复 (Israel should not rush to strike back at Iran)

相反，应尝试对伊朗的导弹袭击作出新颖回应：保持克制 (Instead it should try a novel response to Iran’s missile attack: restraint)

以色列的战时内阁正在应对一个危险的决定：如何回应伊朗在4月13日发动的空袭和导弹袭击。幸运的是，在朋友和邻居的帮助下，这波袭击被挡住了。以色列应该像美国总统乔·拜登所敦促的那样“接受胜利”，让这种公然的战争行为不了了之吗？还是应该进行报复，冒险引发地区大火？

The war cabinet in Israel is grappling with a perilous decision: how to respond to Iran’s unprecedented drone and missile attack on April 13th. The barrage was, fortunately, blocked with help from friends and neighbours. Should Israel “take the win”, as President Joe Biden is urging, letting a blatant act of war go unanswered? Or should it retaliate and risk sparking a regional conflagration?

作为一个敌人众多的小国，以色列长期以来一直重视庞大—有人会说过度的—威慑力。为了粉碎哈马斯，它曾肆虐加沙，这个组织于10月7日屠杀了以色列平民。以色列对伊朗的报复似乎已经成为必然。但以色列政府应克制。

A small country with many enemies, Israel has long prized massive—some would say disproportionate—deterrence. It has wrecked Gaza in the attempt to crush Hamas, which massacred Israeli civilians on October 7th. Israeli retribution against Iran now seems inevitable. But Israel’s government should stay its hand.

1991年，伊拉克暴君萨达姆·侯赛因向以色列发射了数十枚“飞毛腿”导弹。他的目的是挑起以色列的报复，从而分裂一个旨在帮助美国驱逐其在科威特的部队的阿拉伯联盟。在美国的敦促下，以色列没有进行报复。如今，以色列的克制也可能使得更容易建立一个反对地区威胁——伊朗的联盟。但只有美国能够组建这样的联盟。

Read all our coverage of the war between Israel and Hamas

伊朗声称以色列通过对其大马士革外交使馆发动空袭，导致7名伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队成员（包括两名将军）丧生，招致了这次袭击。这种说法是站不住脚的。伊朗在1979年劫持美国外交官时对外交场所毫不关心，当其代理人或盟友在1983年炸毁了美国驻贝鲁特大使馆以及1992年炸毁了以色列大使馆时也是如此。不管怎样，伊朗最近的袭击是不成比例的。

There is a precedent. In 1991 Saddam Hussein, Iraq’s despot, hit Israel with dozens of Scud missiles. His aim was to provoke Israeli retaliation, and thus divide an Arab coalition poised to help America evict his forces from Kuwait. At America’s urging, Israel did not retaliate. Today, too, Israeli restraint could make it easier to build a coalition against a regional threat: Iran. But only America can muster such a coalition.

它发射了170架无人机和约120枚弹道导弹和30枚巡航导弹。这次袭击明确表明了它与以色列之间长期的隐秘战争，打破了相互公开攻击对方领土的禁忌。这次袭击也对美国构成了挑战。拜登多次警告伊朗及其盟友“不要这样做”，但他们置之不理。先是代理人开始向以色列开火；现在伊朗也加入了战斗。

Iran claims Israel invited the attack by killing seven members of its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (irgc), including two generals, with an air strike on its diplomatic compound in Damascus. This is cant. Iran cared little for diplomatic premises when it took American diplomats hostage in 1979, and when its agents or allies blew up the American embassy in Beirut in 1983 and the Israeli one in Buenos Aires in 1992. Regardless, Iran’s recent strike is disproportionate.

正如乌克兰战争所展示的那样，无人机和导弹有利于攻击者，因为击落它们很困难且成本高昂。但通过科技和协调可以阻止它们。美国、英国和法国的部队—以及更低调的约旦和可能沙特的部队—摧毁了许多伊朗弹头。剩下的几乎都被以色列摧毁了。少数击中目标的弹头造成了较小的破坏。

It fired 170 drones, and about 120 ballistic and 30 cruise missiles. It made overt the long covert war with Israel, breaking the taboo against openly attacking each other’s territory. The strike is a challenge to America, too. Mr Biden has repeatedly warned Iran and its allies “Don’t”. They ignored him. First proxies started shooting at Israel; now Iran has joined in.

这次袭击证实了伊朗日益狂热的统治者的威胁。它在黎巴嫩、也门、伊拉克和叙利亚的代理人空心化国家并使该地区不稳定。这个“抵抗轴心”不仅向以色列开火，还向沙特阿拉伯、阿拉伯联合酋长国和巴基斯坦开火。伊朗的武器也被用于对抗乌克兰，因为伊朗正在与俄罗斯、中国和朝鲜结盟。由于伊朗接近拥有核武器，危险变得更加严重。

As the war in Ukraine shows, drones and missiles favour the attacker because they are hard and costly to shoot down. But they can be thwarted by technology and co-ordination. American, British and French forces—and more quietly Jordanian and perhaps Saudi ones—took out many of the Iranian warheads. The rest were almost all destroyed by Israel. The few that got through did little damage.

尽管如此，以色列应该守望待旦。克制将有助于修复与美国在加沙战争行动上的分歧。这将使得类似的防空合作关系得以发展为更大更持久的联盟。以色列与志同道合的国家共同形成一致立场越多越好。协调的制裁、外交孤立、网络攻击以及对伊朗持不同政见者的支持—以及以色列与阿拉伯国家的和解—可能会比空袭更有效地遏制伊朗。如果以色列行事草率，邻国将为更广泛的地区战争付出沉重代价；美国和欧洲将被卷入战斗；油价将飙升；全球贸易将受到干扰。只有伊朗的“抵抗轴心”会欢迎混乱。伊朗自己可能会突破核门槛。

The attack proves the menace of Iran’s ever more zealous rulers. Its proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and Syria hollow out states and destabilise the region. This “axis of resistance” has fired drones and missiles not only at Israel but at Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Pakistan. Iran’s weapons are being used against Ukraine, too, as it aligns itself with Russia, China and North Korea. The danger is all the greater because Iran is alarmingly close to having nuclear arms.

美国对于建立一个遏制伊朗的联盟至关重要。美国和欧洲国家可以开始协调对伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队的制裁，并允许中止自2015年已废除的核协议下悬挂的联合国制裁的恢复。与伊朗进行直接或间接的外交旅程应该继续，但不能抱有幻想。美国和以色列—最好是其他国家—需要对伊朗进行一种调节但有信服力的军事行动威胁，以防止伊朗采取激进措施获得核武器。

Even so, Israel should bide its time. Restraint would help to heal the rift with America over the conduct of the war in Gaza. It would allow the budding air-defence partnership to grow into a bigger and more lasting coalition. The more Israel can create a common front with like-minded countries, the better. Co-ordinated sanctions, diplomatic isolation, cyber-attacks and support for Iranian dissidents—and rapprochement between Israel and Arab states—may prove better at containing Iran than strikes. If Israel acts rashly, its neighbours will bear a heavy cost in a wider regional war; America and Europe will be sucked into hostilities; oil prices will soar; and global trade will be disrupted. Only Iran’s “axis of resistance” would welcome chaos. Iran itself could cross the nuclear threshold.

然而，为了使所有这些成为可能，以色列需要结束在加沙的战争，从暂时停火和交换囚犯和人质开始。哈马斯对于煽动地区战争失去希望的可能性越大，他们就越有可能同意这样的交易。在经过改革的巴勒斯坦权力机构领导下朝着巴勒斯坦建国的进展将会打开大门，实现与沙特阿拉伯的正常化。

America would be vital to creating a coalition to contain Iran. America and European powers can start by co-ordinating sanctions on the irgc and allowing the “snapback” of un penalties suspended under a now-defunct nuclear deal from 2015. Diplomacy with Iran, direct or indirect, should continue but with no illusions. America and Israel—and ideally others—need to make a calibrated but credible threat of military action if Iran makes a dash to acquire nukes.

这些都不会轻而易举，也不是毫无风险的。但伊朗的袭击突显了在永无止境的战争中升级的危险。这也表明以色列单凭自身无法击败伊朗及其网络。为了对抗伊朗，以色列需要建立自己的网络——与美国、欧洲和新兴的阿拉伯朋友合作。建立一个温和派联盟是结束与巴勒斯坦人间那个滋养伊斯兰激进主义的永恒冲突、遏制伊朗的最可靠途径。 ■

To make all this possible, however, Israel needs to end the war in Gaza, starting with a temporary ceasefire and the exchange of prisoners and hostages. The more Hamas loses hope of fomenting a regional war, the likelier it is to agree to such a deal. Progress towards Palestinian statehood, under a reformed Palestinian Authority, would unlock the big prize—normalisation with Saudi Arabia.

None of this will be easy or without risks. But Iran’s attack highlights the dangers of escalation in a never-ending war. It also shows that Israel alone cannot defeat Iran and its network. To counter it, Israel needs its own network—with America, Europe and emerging Arab friends. A moderate coalition is the surest way to end the perpetual conflict with the Palestinians, which feeds Islamic radicalism, and to contain Iran. ■

回到目录

领袖 | 你的国家需要你(更多) (Leaders | Your country needs (more of) you)

如何吸引更多人穿上军装 (How to get more people into military uniforms)

为什么强制兵役对一些国家有意义，而对另一些国家则没有 (Why mandatory military service makes sense for some countries but not others)

强制性的军事服役再次在欧洲讨论。原因是什么呢？乌克兰的可能失败和未来唐纳德·特朗普总统放弃北约的威胁都仍然严峻。德国国防部长鲍里斯·皮斯托里乌斯表示，欧洲必须准备在本年代结束前迎战。他称2011年取消学校毕业生一年服役期为“一个错误”。英国陆军参谋长帕特里克·桑德斯将军则呼吁建立一个“公民军队”。

MANDATORY MILITARY service is under discussion once more in Europe. The reasons? The possibility of Ukraine’s defeat looms large, as does the threat of a future president Donald Trump abandoning nato. Boris Pistorius, Germany’s defence minister, says that Europe must be ready for war before the decade’s end. He describes dropping a one-year period of service for school-leavers in 2011 as “a mistake”. Britain’s army chief, General Patrick Sanders, has called for a “citizen army”.

强制性的军队服役形式多种多样，包括征召各个年龄段的平民、采用抽签召集以及年轻人离校后进行标准的军事服役。之所以在考虑实行强制性军役，是因为很多富裕国家很难为他们的全职专业部队吸引足够的人员。一些国家羡慕北约的北欧和波罗的海成员国，它们都实行某种形式的强制服役且受到公众支持。瑞典在2011年结束了强制服役，但在2018年重新实行。

Compulsory stints in the armed forces can take several forms, including the conscription of civilians of any age, call-ups using lotteries and a standard period of military service for young people after they leave school. Compulsion is being considered because many rich countries struggle to recruit enough people for their all-volunteer professional forces. Some countries look admiringly at NATO’s Nordic and Baltic members, all of which have some form of mandatory service which enjoys high levels of public support. Sweden ended it in 2011, only to resurrect it in 2018.

其他国家是否应该采取这种做法呢？简短的答案是还没有。军队应当根据地理位置和作战预期来设计。在人口相对较少且与俄罗斯接壤的国家，如爱沙尼亚和芬兰，公众接受征兵制度的程度很高，训练也使军队能够为对抗入侵者进行“箭猪式”防御做好准备。有一种共同的国家奋斗精神。出于类似原因，面临持续安全威胁的以色列的军事服役是不受争议的（除了对乌尔特正统派不服役的不满）。台湾和韩国也因为靠近好战的大国而实行征兵制度。

Is this an approach that other countries should follow? The short answer is not yet. Armies should be designed to reflect both geography and how they expect to fight. In countries with relatively small populations that have borders close to Russia, such as Estonia and Finland, public acceptance of conscription is high and training prepares forces for a “porcupine” defence against an invader. There is a strong sense of a shared national endeavour. For similar reasons, military service in Israel, which faces constant security threats, is uncontroversial (aside from resentment that the ultra-Orthodox do not have to serve). Taiwan and South Korea have conscription because they, too, are close to bellicose powers.

在大部分富裕世界的国家，公民并没有感受到即将到来的威胁。因此，要实行征兵制度，就需要明确和共识一致地理解为何这是必要的。就像在英国和法国等国家缺乏的那样，现代技术先进的军队里征兵者能够做什么并不明显。此外，“在危机时刻”，每个国家必须在需要时在30天内投入一个完整的师（拥有重型装备的3万人部队）以供北约使用。应对众多征兵者可能会分散注意力。

Citizens in most of the rest of the rich world do not yet feel an imminent threat. So for conscription to be workable, there would need to be a clear and shared understanding of why it was needed. That is lacking in countries such as Britain and France, where it is not obvious what conscripts could do in a modern, technologically sophisticated army. Besides, “in a crisis” each country must field a full division (30,000 troops with heavy equipment) within 30 days if needed by NATO. Dealing with lots of conscripts could be a distraction.

因为强制服役年轻人严重侵犯他们的自由，因此这种政策需要公众支持。即使在面临生存危机的乌克兰，将征召年龄从27岁降低到25岁在本月也是政治上棘手的。毫无疑问，大部分欧洲国家的军队在招募常规士兵和建立熟练后备兵员方面面临着困难。但它们大多数可以通过其他方式解决。

Because conscripting young people infringes harshly on their liberty, the policy would need public support. Even Ukraine, in existential peril, found lowering the call-up age from 27 to 25 this month politically tricky. Undoubtedly the difficulties faced by most of Europe’s armed forces in recruiting regular soldiers and building proficient reserves need redress. But they can mostly be resolved by means other than compulsion.

首先，考虑提高士兵的薪水。年长者有时会抱怨那些导致年轻人不愿服役的所谓品质上的缺陷。但当求职者有其他选择时，薪酬和待遇不佳远远是招募的最大障碍。国防预算在增加，但需要更快速增长。北约成员国在国防方面支出占GDP的2%将不足以覆盖薪资增加和新设备采购。此外，还应有更多的尝试，例如进行可以与大学学习或其他培训相结合的一年服务试点。尽管讨论很多，很少有军队采取足够措施招募妇女并打击性骚扰。

First, consider raising soldiers’ salaries. Older folk sometimes grumble about the supposed character flaws that make young people unwilling to serve. But poor pay and conditions are by far the biggest obstacles to recruitment when job-seekers have other choices. Defence budgets are rising but will need to do so faster. NATO members’ target of spending 2% of GDP on defence will not be enough to cover both higher wages and new kit. There should also be more experimentation, for instance with one-year trials of service that can be combined with university studies or other training. And despite much discussion, few armies have done enough to recruit women and combat sexual harassment.

其次，需要更多的民间社会支持以吸引那些在紧急情况下所需的专业技能的人。除了吸引更多志愿者来增强常规部队外，军队还可以通过让离开军队的士兵同意直至40多岁时每年进行培训来增加后备力量。通过这种方式，英国如果需要的话可以召集多达30万这样的人。而在法国和德国这样拥有更大部队的国家，这个数字可能更高。

Second, more civil-society support is needed to attract those with the specialist skills required in emergencies. In addition to wooing more volunteers to augment regular forces, armies could swell reserves by making soldiers who leave the forces agree to annual training days until they reach their mid-40s. In this way Britain could mobilise as many as 300,000 such people if needed. The numbers might be even higher in France and Germany, as they have larger armies.

在这个紧张的时刻，各国仍然应该制定计划，以防最坏的情况发生时会发生更广泛的动员。为了威慑最危险的敌人，你必须为一场你不想打的战争做好准备。请问勇敢的乌克兰人吧。■

In these tense times countries should still maintain plans for how, if the worst came to the worst, a much wider mobilisation might occur. To deter the most dangerous enemies, you must be ready for a war that you do not want to fight. Just ask the courageous Ukrainians. ■

回到目录

领导者 | 鲍威尔第二次转向 (Leaders | The second Powell pivot)

美国的利率今年不太可能下降 (America’s interest rates are unlikely to fall this year)

这将对金融市场和世界经济造成挤压。 (That will squeeze financial markets and the world economy)

在大部分时间里，从股票挑选者和购房者到乔·拜登总统都寄希望于美联储很快会降低利率。然而在过去两周这些希望已经落空。

For most of the year everyone from stockpickers and homebuyers to President Joe Biden has banked on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates soon. Over the past two weeks those hopes have been dashed. Annual consumer price inflation in March, at 3.5%, was higher than expected for the third month in a row; retail sales grew by a boomy 0.7% on the previous month. On April 16th Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chairman, warned that the battle against inflation was taking “longer than expected”. Investors had begun 2024 pricing in more than 1.5 percentage points of interest-rate cuts over the course of the year. Today they expect rates to fall by only 0.5 points.

3月份的年度消费者价格通胀率为3.5%，连续第三个月高于预期；零售销售同比增长了0.7%。4月16日，美联储主席鲍威尔 (Jerome Powell) 警告称对抗通胀的努力“花费了比预期更长的时间”。投资者已经开始预计到2024年将会有超过1.5个百分点的利率降低。如今，他们预期利率将仅减少0.5个百分点。

Mr Powell has conducted a pivot upon a pivot. The euphoric expectations for rate cuts took on a life of their own after the Fed turned too doveish in December. That unduly stimulated the economy and will force the central bank to retrace its steps, and then some. The consequences of higher-for-longer interest rates will reverberate around America, financial markets and the world economy.

鲍威尔先生进行了一次又一次的转变。在美联储在去年12月变得过分鸽派之后，市场对利率下调的喜悦预期已经失去控制。那短暂刺激了经济增长的行动将迫使央行收回步伐，并且更进一步。低利率持续时间较长的后果将在美国、金融市场以及全球经济中回响。

America’s economy has demonstrated that it can withstand at least a temporary period of higher rates. On April 16th the IMF forecast that it would grow by 2.7% in 2024, up from the 2.1% it expected in January. Yet its resilience to prolonged exposure to high rates is less certain.

美国经济表现出它能够承受至少一段时间的较高利率。4月16日，国际货币基金组织预测美国经济将在2024年增长2.7%，高于一月份预期的2.1%。然而，它对长期暴露于高利率的韧性较不确定。

Many companies issued corporate debt during the pandemic when rates were much lower. That has helped them cope with high rates so far; but eventually they will have to refinance and pay up. Mortgage-interest rates of nearly 7% have frozen much of the housing market. America’s high and rapidly growing government debt is also becoming much more expensive to service: the yield on ten-year Treasury bonds has risen to about 4.6% from 4.2% at the end of March. Already the most recent forecasts, predicated on lower rates, saw net interest absorbing more of this year’s federal budget than defence.

许多公司在疫情期间发行了公司债券，当时利率要低得多。这帮助它们迄今已经应对了高利率；但最终它们将不得不进行再融资并付出代价。接近7%的按揭利率已经冻结了许多住房市场。美国的高额不断增长的政府债务支付成本也变得更加昂贵：十年期国债收益率从3月底的4.2%上升到约4.6%。已经可以看到，最近的预测，基于较低利率，认定利息支出将占去今年联邦预算的比例超过国防开支。

Financial markets will also feel the effects of continued high rates. The Fed’s doveishness in December propelled a stockmarket boom; though that recently lost steam, the S&P 500 index of stocks remains a fifth above its level at the end of October, when rates were last expected to stay higher for longer. Stocks now look vulnerable to a correction.

继续保持高利率对金融市场也会造成影响。美联储在去年12月变得过分鸽派推动了股市繁荣；尽管最近出现下跌，但股票的标普500指数仍比去年10月底预计高利率持续时间更长时的水平高出五分之一。目前股市看起来容易出现修正。

Moreover, the problems that high rates exposed in America’s banking system in 2023 still lurk. At the last count there were $478bn of unrealised losses on banks’ balance-sheets, much of which result from higher rates reducing the value of government and mortgage-backed bonds. That figure will have risen now that bond yields have shot up again.

此外，高利率在2023年揭示了美国银行系统存在的问题，这些问题依然未解决。最近统计显示，银行资产负债表上有4780亿美元的未实现损失，其中大部分是由于较高利率导致政府和按揭支持债券价值下降。随着债券收益率再次上升，这一数字将进一步上升。

The consequences of higher rates in America will also ripple out to the rest of the world. Though there are signs of somewhat sticky inflation elsewhere—Britain’s consumer price inflation was also higher than expected in March—no major economy is as hot as America’s. The IMF’s forecast for euro-zone growth this year, for example, is just 0.8%. The result is a strengthening dollar, which is up about 5% against its biggest trading partners this year. Strikingly, the Japanese yen has slipped to nearly 155 against the greenback, despite a historic (though modest) monetary tightening in March, prompting speculation that the government may intervene to defend the currency directly.

美国高利率的后果也会波及世界其他地区。尽管有迹象表明通胀在其他地方存在某种顽固性——英国的消费者价格通胀率也比预期高——但没有其他主要经济体像美国那样热烈。例如，国际货币基金组织对欧元区今年的增长预测仅为0.8%。其结果是美元走强，今年已对其最大贸易伙伴升值约5%。值得注意的是，尽管日本历史上实施了（尽管温和的）货币紧缩政策，但日元兑美元已接近155，引发了政府可能会直接干预来捍卫货币的猜测。

In theory a stronger dollar should help the rest of the world by making its exports more competitive, and growth in America should spill across borders as it sucks in imports. But a surging greenback can also disrupt trade and borrowing that is denominated in dollars. Economies that rely on commodity imports, such as Japan’s, face a double squeeze from a stronger greenback and a rising dollar price of oil, which is up by about 20% since early December and could rise a little further if strife in the Middle East worsens.

理论上，强劲美元应该帮助世界其他地区，使其出口更具竞争力，并且随着美国的增长吸引进口，这种增长将波及其他国家。但是，一个不断走强的绿皮书也可能扰乱以美元计价的贸易和借款。依赖商品进口的经济体，例如日本，将面对来自强劲绿皮书和油价上涨的压力的双重挤压，后者自去年12月初以来上涨约20%，如果中东动荡加剧，油价可能还会略有上涨。

If high interest rates in America end its enviable economic run, rate cuts will eventually follow. Until that time comes, America’s monetary policy will remain a problem for the rest of the world. ■

如果美国的高利率终结了其令人羡慕的经济繁荣，那么最终将会出现利率下调。在那之前，美国的货币政策将继续成为全球的问题。 ■

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领导者 | 错误的处方 (Leaders | Poor prescription)

美国针对中国生物科技的举措将伤害国内患者 (America’s moves against Chinese biotech will hurt patients at home)

“生物安全法案”背后的动机令人费解。 (The motives behind the BIOSECURE act are muddy)

美国对中国贸易的打击正在扩大。 在4月17日的竞选活动中，乔·拜登总统提议将对钢铁进口的关税翻番，援引中国的不公平贸易行为。在切断中国进入先进半导体并着手禁止抖音等中国社交媒体应用之后，立法者们将目光投向了一个新的目标：生物技术。《生物安全法案》在国会得到了两党的支持，拟议终止与将中国生物技术公司列为客户或供应商的公司的政府合同。美国官员先前表示他们希望用“高围栏”保护“小庭院”内的敏感技术。这项法案表明庭院范围正在扩大，对美国消费者造成了不幸后果。

America’s crackdown on Chinese trade is broadening. On the campaign trail on April 17th President Joe Biden proposed tripling tariffs on steel imports, citing China’s unfair trade practices. Having choked off China’s access to advanced semiconductors and moved to ban TikTok, a Chinese-owned social-media app, lawmakers are eyeing a new target: biotechnology. The biosecure act, which has bipartisan support in Congress, proposes to end government contracts for firms that count Chinese biotech companies as clients or suppliers. American officials have previously said they want to guard a “small yard” of sensitive technologies with a “high fence”. This bill illustrates that the yard is getting bigger, with sorry consequences for American consumers.

它利用终止有利可图的联邦合同的威胁来切断美国公司与中国基因测序仪、制造测序机器和制造大分子药物（如减肥注射剂）的公司的联系。它将禁令扩展到总部位于敌对国家的任何生物技术公司，并具体提及四家中国公司的名称。

It uses the threat of ending lucrative federal contracts to sever American firms’ ties with Chinese genomic sequencers, makers of sequencing machines and makers of large-molecule drugs such as weight-loss injectables. It extends the ban to any biotech firm with its headquarters in an adversary country, and mentions four Chinese companies by name.

其中一个目标是一家名为BGI（原名北京基因组学研究所）的测序公司。BGI是全球最大的人类DNA测序器，业务遍布100多个国家。它提供产前检测和新冠病毒等疾病的诊断拭子。和其竞争对手一样，该公司提供廉价的健康筛查服务，以换取保持患者匿名数据的许可。这些数据反过来被用于尖端药物研发。

One target is a sequencing firm called BGI, formerly known as Beijing Genomics Institute. BGI is the largest sequencer of human DNA in the world and operates in over 100 countries. It supplies prenatal tests and diagnostic swabs for covid-19 and other diseases. The firm, like its rivals, provides health screenings on the cheap in return for keeping its patients’ anonymised data. The data in turn are used in cutting-edge drug development.

立法者们声称BGI收集的数据可供研究的信息存储在中国共产党官员可接触的范围内。该公司表示敏感信息是私下存储的，其在美国的运营有限。但是立法者们不需要盲目相信BGI的言论。拜登总统曾在2月份禁止将健康数据出口至包括中国在内的敌对国家，与中国的控制措施相呼应。立法者们无需迈出更进一步的步伐。

Lawmakers allege that the data hoovered up by BGI are stored within reach of nosy Communist Party officials. The firm says sensitive information is stored privately and that its American operations are limited. But lawmakers need not take BGI’s word for it. In February President Joe Biden banned exports of health data to adversaries, including China, mirroring China’s own controls. Lawmakers did not need to go further.

此外，与对一个特定公司数据处理的合理担忧开始相比，该法案的起草者通过拉拢医疗设备和药物制造商，如无锡药明康德（Wuxi AppTec），将范围扩大得更为广泛。该公司进行研究并制造用于客户（包括全球最大制药公司）制药的化合物。无锡药明康德及其姊妹公司无锡生物制药按营收计，在全世界是最大的药物发现和制造合同提供商。尽管某种程度的摆脱对中国制造商的依赖可能是有道理的，但这并非该法案的阐明意图。无论如何，这项立法不仅会实行多元化，而且将实行全面脱钩。

Moreover, having begun with reasonable concerns about a specific firm’s handling of data, the authors of the bill have widened their scope much further, by bringing in the makers of medical equipment and drugs, such as Wuxi AppTec, which conducts research and manufactures compounds used to make drugs for clients including the world’s biggest pharma firms. WuXi AppTec and its sister firm, WuXi Biologics, are by revenue the world’s largest providers of contract drug discovery and manufacturing. While some diversification away from Chinese producers might have been justifiable, that is not the stated intention of the bill. In any case, the legislation would not merely enforce diversification, but wholesale decoupling.

立法者声称中国生物技术公司窃取了知识产权并与解放军和中国政府镇压维吾尔人有合作。无锡药明康德表示，公司不知情未经授权的知识产权转移。然而，在此处，生物安全法案也是一种过度反应。西方生物制药公司以保护自己的知识产权而著称，他们显然最有资格决定将药物配方交给谁信任。有军事或道德纠纷的中国企业应该以个体为目标，而不是因为其国籍或行业。

The lawmakers claim that Chinese biotech firms have stolen intellectual property (IP) and collaborated with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the Chinese government’s repression of Uyghurs. (WuXi AppTec says it is not aware of unauthorised transfers of IP.) Yet here too the biosecure act is an overreaction. Western biopharma firms are notoriously protective of their IP and are surely best placed to decide whom to trust with their drug recipes. Chinese firms that are militarily or morally compromised should be targeted on an individual basis, not by dint of their nationality or industry.

立法背后的动机看起来越模糊，就越难以摆脱旧式的保护主义行为。这就是问题所在，因为这意味着该法案将不当地伤害美国消费者，而不提供所谓的安全利益的任何好处。

The muddier the motivation behind the legislation seems, the harder it is to escape the conclusion that old-fashioned protectionism is at play. And that is a problem, because it means the bill would unduly hurt American consumers, without delivering any of the supposed security benefits.

如果该法案通过，那看起来是很可能的，可能会导致药物短缺和延迟的药品临床试验。每一家大型西方制药公司和许多小公司都将不得不放弃供应链，并寻找新的试验伙伴。尤其是生物技术初创公司依赖廉价的中国制造商将其产品推向市场。这将违背拜登政府的另一个宣布的意图：降低药物价格。■

If the legislation passes, as seems likely, drug shortages and delayed clinical trials for medicines would probably follow. Every large Western pharma firm and many small ones would have to abandon supply chains and find new partners for trials. Biotech startups in particular rely on cheap Chinese manufacturers to bring their products to market. And that would go against another stated intention of the Biden administration: to lower drug prices. ■

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中国 | 学位和难度 (China | Degrees and difficulty)

为什么这么多中国应届毕业生找不到工作 (Why so many Chinese graduates cannot find work)

我们的数据分析表明，他们的困境可能比以前认为的更严重。 (Our number-crunching suggests that their plight could be much worse than previously thought)

每年这个时候，公司会到中国的大学校园招聘潜在员工。今年的气氛很沉重。在武汉的一场招聘会上，一家公司正在寻找管理培训生，但他们只想要精英毕业生，并且只提供每月1000元（140美元）的工资，一篇在社交媒体上传播的帖子声称。吉林的一场招聘会上，一个即将毕业的学生在网上说，大多数广告职位要求有高级学位。“下次不要再邀请我们了。”另一个抱怨公司不招人。招聘流程“就是一场谎言”，她写道。

AROUND THIS time each year companies visit university campuses in China looking for potential employees. This year the mood is grim. At a job fair in Wuhan a firm was looking to hire management trainees—but it wanted only elite graduates and offered just 1,000 yuan ($140) per month, claimed a post that went viral on social media. At a fair in Jilin most of the advertised positions required advanced degrees, said a soon-to-be graduate online. “Next time don’t bother inviting us.” Another griped that firms are not hiring. The recruitment process is “a lie”, she wrote.

数据描绘了同样令人沮丧的景象。去年6月，城市16至24岁人群的失业率达到了创纪录的21.3%。这可能让政府感到尴尬，于是停止发布数据系列，重新调整计算方法，不再将正在求学的年轻人算在内（美国、英国和许多其他国家在计算失业率时包括这些学生）。新数据较低，但仍令人沮丧：今年3月，城市里有15.3%的年轻人失业。这几乎是总体失业率的三倍。

The data paint a similarly bleak picture. The unemployment rate for people aged 16 to 24 in cities reached a record high of 21.3% last June. That was perhaps too embarrassing for the government, so it stopped publishing the data series while it rejigged its calculation to exclude young people seeking jobs while studying. (America, Britain and many other countries include such students when calculating their rates.) The new numbers are lower, but still depressing: in March 15.3% of young people in cities were unemployed. That’s nearly three times the overall jobless rate.

对于年轻毕业生来说，情况可能更加严峻。中国不公布这个群体的失业率。但根据我们从中国每十年一次的人口普查和统计年鉴中整理的数据估算，截至2020年，即最近可获得普查数据的年份，16-24岁接受过大学教育的年轻人的失业率为25.2%。这比当时所有年轻人的失业率高出1.8倍。

For young graduates the situation is probably even more dire. China does not release an unemployment rate for this cohort. But we combed through data from the country’s decennial census and its statistical yearbooks in order to produce an estimate. By our calculations (including students who are seeking jobs), the unemployment rate for 16- to 24-year-olds with a university education was 25.2% in 2020, the last year for which census data are available. That was 1.8 times the unemployment rate for all young people at the time.

可能从2020年以来情况有所好转，或者影响我们计算的变量已以无法预测的方式改变。但情况也可能变得更糟。简化一下，如果我们假设2020年的比例关系仍然存在，超过三分之一的年轻毕业生可能今天处于失业状态。

It could be that things have got better since 2020 or that the variables affecting our calculations have changed in unpredictable ways. But it is also possible that things have got worse. To simplify, if we assume that the proportional relationship from 2020 still holds, over a third of young graduates might be unemployed today.

有理由相信情况没有得到改善的一个原因是，毕业生在失业青年中所占比例增长的速度比更广泛的人口统计趋势可以解释的要快（见图表1）。2022年，大学和职业技术学院毕业生占失业青年的70%，这一比例比20年前的9%高。作为青年人口的比例，这些毕业生在2020年占了47%。

One reason to believe that things are not improving is that graduates as a share of unemployed youth are increasing faster than might be explained by broader demographic trends (see chart 1). Graduates of universities and vocational and technical colleges accounted for 70% of the unemployed young in 2022, up from 9% two decades ago. As a percentage of the youth population, those graduates amounted to 47% in 2020.

中国疲软的经济至少部分原因是问题所在。对毕业生的需求停滞不前，而供应则在增长。今年，预计将有近1200万学生从高等教育机构毕业，比去年增长了2%。2000年至2024年间，中国每年的毕业生人数增长了十多倍。

China’s sluggish economy is at least partly to blame. Demand for graduates has stagnated. Meanwhile, the supply of them is growing. This year nearly 12m students are expected to graduate from higher-education institutions, an increase of 2% compared with last year. Between 2000 and 2024 the number of Chinese graduates per year grew more than tenfold (see chart 2).

这一趋势可以追溯至中国经济学家闵棠的建议，他提出扩大高等教育招生作为应对上世纪90年代亚洲金融危机的一种方式。这样的政策将推迟年轻人进入就业市场，并通过教育支出刺激经济，他说。政府采纳了他的计划，这与推动向同一方向发展的社会变革相吻合。按照中国的独生子女政策出生的孩子在1999年开始成年。由于家庭规模受限，家长有更多投资每个孩子的余地，也更有动机鼓励他们进修，因为这些孩子被期望在老年时养活父母。

The trend can be traced back to Min Tang, a Chinese economist who proposed expanding enrolment in higher education as a way of dealing with the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s. Such a policy would postpone young people’s entry into the job market and stimulate the economy by way of education spending, he said. The government adopted his plan, which coincided with societal changes that pushed in the same direction. Children born under China’s one-child policy began to come of age in 1999. With family size limited, parents had more to invest in each child—and more of an incentive to encourage their studies, since these children were expected to provide for their parents in old age.

随着需求增加，大学规模和数量也在增长。早在2000年代初，通过通过法律出台允许公司介入。这些名为“民办大学”的私立机构收取的费用远高于公立大学，他们有动机录取更多学生。这些学校的招生人数激增，2004年以来增长了560%。当时，十分之一的大学生在“民办大学”就读。现在，四分之一的学生是如此。

As demand for slots increased, universities grew in size and number. Laws passed in the early 2000s allowed companies to get in on the action. Privately run institutions, called minban daxue, charge substantially higher fees than public universities and have an incentive to admit ever more students. Enrolment at these schools has ballooned, increasing by 560% since 2004. Back then one in ten students in college or university studied at a minban da**xue. Now one in four does (see chart 3).

“民办大学”通常要求的中国高考分数比公立机构低。但所有学院和大学的录取率都在上升。1999年以前，不到四分之一的高考考生被这些机构录取。如今，大多数考生都被录取了。

Minban daxue tend to require lower scores on China’s university-entrance exam, the gaokao, than public institutions. But the acceptance rate at all colleges and universities has been rising. Before 1999 less than a quarter of gaokao-takers were accepted by these institutions. Today most make it in (see chart 4).

毕业生人数不断增长也许并非大问题，如果他们正在学习雇主所需的技能的话。但中国企业抱怨他们找不到符合开放职位要求的合格候选人。部分问题出在低质量的民办大学上。然而，技能匹配的问题延伸至整个高等教育体系。例如，尽管人文学科学生数量不断增长，但需求远低于其他领域专业人才的毕业生。

The rising number of graduates might not be such a problem if they were learning skills desired by employers. But Chinese companies complain that they cannot find qualified candidates for their open positions. Part of the problem are low-quality minban daxue. Yet the skills mismatch extends across higher education. For example, the number of students studying the humanities is growing even though demand for such graduates is much lower than that for specialists in other fields.

一些学生试图规避严苛的私营部门就业市场。2024年，参加中国公务员考试的人数创下230万的历史新高，同比增长48%。还有一些人选择攻读研究生。硕士和博士生的数量增长如此之快，以至于一些校园的住房已经不够。

Some students are trying to dodge the tough private-sector job market. The number of people sitting for China’s civil-service exam hit a record high of 2.3m in 2024, a 48% increase year on year. Others are pursuing postgraduate studies. The number of master’s and doctoral students has increased by so much that some campuses have run out of housing.

许多毕业生无法找到与其学位匹配的工作，只好接受送外卖等低技能工作。去年，温州某机场的备忘录指出，他们已经雇佣建筑师和工程师担任园艺保养员和防鸟人员。

Unable to find work befitting their degrees, a number of graduates are settling for low-skilled jobs, such as delivering food. Last year a memo from an airport in Wenzhou noted that it had hired architects and engineers to be its groundskeepers and bird-control personnel.

西安交通大学的李晓光和哥伦比亚大学的卢尧对中国的就业问题进行了研究。运用国家调查数据，他们发现，2021年，23至35岁之间的工作者中有25%的人在自己的工作中过于学历优秀，而这一比例在2015年为21%。卢女士表示，由于毕业生面临失业，他们别无选择，只能接受底层工作，这一问题可能会变得更加严重。

Xiaoguang Li of Xi’an Jiaotong University and Yao Lu of Columbia University have studied underemployment in China. Using national survey data, they found that 25% of workers between the ages of 23 and 35 were overqualified for their job in 2021, up from 21% in 2015. The problem is likely to get worse, says Ms Lu, as graduates facing unemployment have no choice but to accept menial work.

由于这一切，追求高等教育的回报似乎正在下降。根据去年发表的一份工作论文，在斯坦福大学埃里克·哈努谢克领导的研究人员发现，2007年至2018年，中国与高等教育相关的工资溢价从72%下降至34%，针对35岁以下人群。

As a result of all this, the returns from pursuing higher education seem to be falling. In a working paper published last year, researchers led by Eric Hanushek of Stanford University found that in China the wage premium associated with higher education dropped from 72% to 34% between 2007 and 2018 for those under the age of 35.

2008年，一位教育部官员似乎承认国家在扩大大学和高校招生规模时犯了错误。但教育部很快收回了这个说法。如今，政府似乎更关注教育体系的规模，而非其质量。去年中国新开设了61所大学。党的喉舌《人民日报》夸耀说：“我们的国家已经建立了全球最大的高等教育体系”。

In 2008 an official in the education ministry seemed to admit that the state had made a mistake in expanding college and university enrolment so quickly. But the ministry quickly backtracked. Today the government seems to care more about the size of the education system than the quality of it. Sixty-one new colleges and universities opened in China last year. “Our country has built the largest higher-education system in the world,” boasted the People’s Daily, a party mouthpiece.

上个月的国情咨文中，总理李强至少在口头上支持确保更多毕业生学到先进制造业和养老护理等行业所需技能的主张。但很多人将会继续发现，他们的学位并非通往好工作的敲门砖。多年来一直被告知高等教育是通往美好生活的阶梯，他们的 frustration**日益增长。■

In his state-of-the-nation speech last month Li Qiang, the prime minister, at least paid lip service to the idea of making sure more graduates were learning the skills needed in sectors such as advanced manufacturing and elderly care. But many will continue to find that their degree is not a ticket to a good job. Told for years that higher education was a ladder to a better life, their frustrations are growing. ■

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中国 | 一次会议和一则信息 (China | A meeting and a message)

中国正在与台湾新领导人交流，只是没有直接对话 (China is talking to Taiwan’s next leader, just not directly)

北京官员希望这个岛国的新总统更像过去的那位 (Officials in Beijing want the island’s new president to be more like one from the past)

在中国待了11天之后，期间与其最高领导人习近平见了面，马英九于本月回到了台湾带着一则讯息。这位台湾前总统在Facebook上发文称习近平向他“伸出橄榄枝”。马英九希望台湾下一任总统赖清德“以人民为重，务实回应”。

AFTER 11 days in China, during which time he was granted an audience with Xi Jinping, its supreme leader, Ma Ying-jeou came back to Taiwan this month with a message. The island’s former president, posting on Facebook, wrote that Mr Xi had “extended an olive branch to us”. Mr Ma hoped that Lai Ching-te, Taiwan’s next president, would “put the people first and respond pragmatically”.

自从2016年马英九卸任以来，追求与中国更紧密关系的做法已发生了很大变化。他的继任者蔡英文坚称台湾是一个主权、民主国家。赖清德则自称是“务实为台湾独立努力的工作者”。中国多年前冻结了与台湾的高层交往。在赖清德成功竞选总统期间，中国官员谴责他的党派是分裂分子，称选举是“战争和和平之间的选择”。

Much has changed since Mr Ma left office in 2016, having pursued closer relations with China. His successor, Tsai Ing-wen, has asserted Taiwan’s status as a sovereign, democratic country. Mr Lai has called himself a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence”. China froze high-level contacts with Taiwan years ago. During Mr Lai’s successful campaign for president, Chinese officials denounced his party as separatists and called the election a choice between “war and peace”.

因此，习近平所谓的橄榄枝是附带条件的毫无意外。马英九建议赖清德确认中国和台湾不是两个国家，并承诺他不会追求独立。对于这一切，预计不会有什么实际结果。中国忽视了赖清德的对话邀请，称其不诚实。

So it is no surprise that Mr Xi’s supposed olive branch comes with conditions. Mr Ma counselled Mr Lai to confirm that China and Taiwan are not two countries and to promise that he would not pursue independence. Little is expected to come of all that. China has ignored Mr Lai’s offers to talk, calling them insincere.

于是问题来了，为什么习近平会见身份已较黯淡、在台湾主流思想之外的马英九呢？例如，马英九认为台湾海峡两岸的人民具有共同的民族认同。然而，超过60%的台湾岛民表示他们是台湾人，不是中国人。在选举期间，马英九因表示台湾必须信任习近平而被自己的国民党排挤。少于10%的台湾人认为中国是一个值得信赖的国家。

The question, then, is why did Mr Xi even meet Mr Ma, a diminished figure whose views are outside the mainstream in Taiwan? Mr Ma, for example, believes that people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait share a common national identity. But more than 60% of those on the island say they are Taiwanese, not Chinese. During the election campaign Mr Ma was sidelined by his own Kuomintang (KMT) party after saying that Taiwan had to trust Mr Xi. Less than 10% of Taiwanese believe China is a trustworthy country.

尽管如此，中国仍认为拥抱马英九这样的人仍有好处。北京官员强调支持台湾的“爱国统一力量”的重要性。中国的台湾事务办公室接待了一系列由台湾宗教领袖、商人和学生组成的代表团。国民党副主席夏立言自2022年以来至少访华7次。中国领导人似乎相信，通过分裂岛屿，他们将有一天赢得这座岛屿。尽管赖清德取得胜利，但他的民进党在议会失去了多数席位，大多数台湾人支持更多的两岸交流。

China, though, thinks there is still a benefit to embracing people like Mr Ma. Officials in Beijing stress the importance of supporting Taiwan’s “patriotic unification forces”. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) receives a steady stream of delegations made up of Taiwanese religious leaders, businessmen and students. Andrew Hsia, the KMT’s vice-chairman, has visited China at least seven times since 2022. Chinese leaders seem to believe that by dividing the island now they may one day win it over. Even though Mr Lai was victorious, his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lost its majority in parliament and most Taiwanese back more cross-strait talking.

中国的战略也有国内因素。“北京正告诉本国民众，他们并没有失去对台湾问题的控制，还有时间实现统一，”智库“危机集团”的阿曼达·肖表示。中国与马英九的会议成为中国头条新闻，旨在强调这一点。肖女士表示，中国领导人可能希望在处理经济挑战并等待美国选举结果时，在台湾问题上给自己更多的“政治空间”。

There is also a domestic component to China’s strategy. “Beijing is telling its own people that it has not lost control over the Taiwan issue and that there is still time to achieve unification,” says Amanda Hsiao of Crisis Group, a think-tank. The Ma-Xi meeting, front-page news in China, aimed to make that point. China’s leaders may want to give themselves more “political space” on Taiwan, says Ms Hsiao, as they deal with economic challenges and await the outcome of America’s election.

但这并不意味着中国坐视不管。在拥抱所谓爱国人士的同时，它也对台湾施加压力。中国战机继续定期飞越台湾海峡的中线（事实上的海上边界）。2月1日，中国民航局改变了一个航线，允许中国民航飞机更靠近中线飞行。台湾回应称，中国试图“单方面改变现状”。2015年，中方当局曾计划类似举措，但在马英九政府投诉后妥协。如今，台湾事务办公室表示“中线并不存在”，因为台湾是中国的一部分。

But that does not mean China is sitting back. As it embraces so-called patriots, it is also exerting pressure on Taiwan. Chinese warplanes have continued to cross the Taiwan Strait’s median line (the de facto maritime border) on a regular basis. And on February 1st China’s Civil Aviation Administration changed a flight path to allow Chinese civilian planes to fly closer to the median line, too. Taiwan responded by accusing China of trying to “unilaterally alter the status quo”. In 2015 the Chinese authorities planned a similar move, only to compromise after Mr Ma’s administration complained. Now the TAO is saying there is “no such thing” as the median line because Taiwan is part of China.

在不久前的金门事件后，台湾周边群岛金门处于这一类事态中。2月14日，两名中国渔民在遭遇台湾海岸警卫队追赶时溺毙。台湾表示他们在“受限水域”中；而中国台湾事务办公室则表示“没有这回事”。不久后，中国海警登上并检查了一艘台湾游轮，这是史无前例的行动。他们还开始在金门附近巡逻，包围该岛并进入台湾视为受限的海域。

The TAO said something similar after a recent incident around Kinmen, an archipelago that is controlled by Taiwan but lies only 3km from China. On February 14th two Chinese fishermen drowned while being chased by Taiwan’s coastguard. Taiwan said they were in “prohibited waters”; the TAO said there is “no such thing”. Soon after, China’s coastguard boarded and inspected a Taiwanese tourist ship, an unprecedented move. It also began carrying out patrols close to Kinmen, encircling the island and entering waters that Taiwan deems restricted.

在空中和海上，中国的行动远未达到战争程度。但台湾的国防与安全研究机构的李俊毅表示，中国的行动宣示了在相关地区的主权权利。中国的信息表明：一个寻求更多台湾主权的总统将看到其减少；但若像马英九那样思考和行动，我们可以谈。 ■

In the air and on the sea, China’s manoeuvring falls well short of war. But its actions amount to claims of sovereignty in the affected areas, says Lee Jyun-yi of the Institute for National Defence and Security Research, a Taiwanese think-tank. The message from China seems clear: a president who seeks more sovereignty for Taiwan will see it diminish; but think and act like Mr Ma, and we can talk. ■

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中国 | 一篇软文 (China | A puff piece)

审视困扰中国北方的毛绒 (Examining the fluff that frustrates northern China)

一项改善环境的努力带来了意想不到的后果。 (An effort to improve the environment has had unintended consequences)

像大多数暴风雪一样，一开始只有几朵白色微风在空中打转。逐渐地，数量增加，这些东西开始在地面上积累。在最猛烈的降雪期间，空气中弥漫着如此厚重的东西，以至于影响了视线。但这不是冬季的景象。这是4月份中国北方大部分地区每年发生的事情，那时杨树开始飘出棉絮状的种子壳。

LIKE MOST blizzards, it begins with just a few white wisps swirling about. Gradually the volume increases and the stuff starts to accumulate on the ground. During the heaviest downfalls the air is so thick with it as to impair visibility. But this is no winter scene. It is what happens every April across much of northern China, when poplar trees start giving off their cotton-like seed-pods.

这种现象已经在北京开始了。4月8日，美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦在大使馆花园举行新闻发布会时，一团绒毛团团围绕着她飘荡。

The phenomenon has already begun in Beijing. On April 8th an eddy of fluff balls wafted around the American treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, as she held a press conference in an embassy garden.

称之为一种困扰简直太婉转了。这些绒毛触发许多人的过敏、哮喘和其他呼吸问题。专家表示，这些由树的雄蕊产生的白色团块本身并不会引起过敏，但它们会散播刺激性花粉。

To call this a nuisance is an understatement. In many people the fluff triggers allergies, asthma and other respiratory problems. Experts say the white balls—produced by the trees’ catkins—are not themselves allergenic, but that they distribute irritating pollen.

它们还会堵塞雨水槽、排水管道和汽车散热器。更糟糕的是，它们构成了火灾隐患。官员们警告说，这种绒毛团具有很低的点火点，要求吸烟者、焊工或任何有兴趣“出于好奇”燃烧它们的人务必极度小心。

They also clog rain gutters, drain pipes and car radiators. Worse, they pose a fire hazard. Officials have warned that the fuzz balls have a low ignition point and called for extreme caution on the part of smokers, welders or anyone inclined to burn them “out of curiosity”.

中国的飘絮问题是改善环境的旧努力带来的无意后果。自20世纪50年代开始，密集的树木种植旨在终结因来自贫瘠地区的风力引起的沙尘暴之苦。这些树木还旨在巩固土壤，减缓沙漠化。杨树和柳树之类富有被选中，因为它们价格便宜、生长迅速且耐旱。

China’s catkin problem is the unintended consequence of an old effort to improve the environment. Intensive tree planting began in the 1950s with the aim of ending the scourge of sandstorms caused by winds sweeping out of barren areas. The trees were also meant to firm up the soil and slow desertification. Poplar trees, along with willows, were selected because they are cheap, fast-growing and drought-resistant.

从某些方面来看，这个计划是成功的。如今的沙尘暴没有那么严重，沙漠化的威胁已经消退。但每年由飘絮引发的袭击是另一种遗产。母树是这些绒球的罪魁祸首。仅在北京市就有数百万（杨树和柳树）。

In some ways the plan worked. Today sandstorms are less severe and the threat of desertification has faded. But the annual onslaught from catkins is another legacy. Female trees are the cotton-ball culprits. There are millions of them (poplar and willow) in Beijing alone.

当局已经设法减轻这一问题。最简单的方法是喷水到树上，将蓬松的飘者变成潮湿的烟花。更先进的解决方案包括“避孕”，或者向母树注射抑制飘絮生产的化学物质。另一个选择是“性别转换手术”，即在母树上切割并用雄花嫁接替代分枝。

Authorities have sought to mitigate the mess. The simplest way is to spray water on the trees, turning the fluffy flyers into damp squibs. More advanced solutions involve “birth control”, or injecting female trees with chemicals that suppress catkin production. Another option is “gender-reassignment surgery”, in which branches on female trees are cut and replaced with male grafts.

但专家表示，这些努力需要时间。好消息是，杨树棉絮的飘舞只会持续几个星期。坏消息是柳树絮毛的飞舞随后将开始。■

But experts say that these efforts will take time. The good news is that the flurries of poplar fluff will only last for a few more weeks. The bad news is that wafts of willow fluff will then begin.■

回到目录

中国 | 茶馆 (China | Chaguan)

变老的阴暗面 (The dark side of growing old)

一波即将到来的老年痴呆症和其他形式的痴呆将考验中国的极限。 (A coming wave of Alzheimer’s and other forms of dementia will test China to its limits)

张先生在地球上度过了他的90岁。他被诊断出患有癌症两次。在最近一次病发期间，医生告诉他还有18个月可活。他幽默地回忆说：“那是16年前的事了。”身材苗条、头发雪白且精力充沛——他说关键在于“不锻炼”和“不抽烟”—这位退休经理穿着一件蓝色衬衣、绿色裤子和黑色棉拖鞋，焕发出青春活力。然而，在这个春日的下午，在杭州市，张先生害怕。不是害怕死亡，而是害怕老年痴呆症。在他年轻的时候，失去理智的老人被称为“疯子”。后来，中国人了解了一个被外国人命名的疾病：阿尔茨海默病。多年来他一直害怕这种病。他叹息地说，患重度老年痴呆的患者无法认出家人，因此总是感到孤单或麻木：“那是最可怕的事情。”悄悄地，他补充说自己开始遗忘事物。

Mr ZHANG HAS stared down death during his 90 years on Earth. He has been diagnosed with cancer twice. During his latest bout doctors gave him 18 months to live. “That was 16 years ago,” he recalls wryly. Trim, snowy-haired and energetic—the key is “no exercise” and “no smoking”, he says—the retired manager cuts a dash in a blue shirt, green trousers and black cotton slippers. Yet on this spring afternoon in the city of Hangzhou, Mr Zhang is afraid. Not of death, but of dementia. In his youth, the old who lost their faculties were called “crazy”. Later the Chinese learned about a disease named by foreigners: Alzheimer’s. He has feared it for years. Advanced sufferers cannot recognise their families and so always feel alone or numb, he sighs: “That is the most terrible thing.” Quietly he adds that he has begun to forget things.

张先生比许多人幸运。他与妻子（88岁）在自己的公寓中生活。杭州是中国最富有的城市之一。他的家庭所在的拱墅区是一个先锋，用来测试政府应对日益增长的老年痴呆症计划。

Mr Zhang is luckier than many. He lives in his own apartment with his wife (88). Hangzhou is one of China’s richest cities. His home district of Gongshu is a pioneer, used to test government plans for tackling dementia, a disease on the rise as China ages.

官方估计，有5300万中国人患有某种认知障碍，其中1000万患有阿尔茨海默病。随着中国人口的老龄化，这个数字将继续增长，因为75岁后患阿尔茨海默病的风险急剧上升。拱墅区已有1.6万名居民患有各种痴呆症。该区的居民年龄普遍较高，预期寿命为83岁，与日本相当，当地疾病控制中心的老年服务主管李秋阳解释说。李先生将早期发现痴呆症作为优先事项。他邀请专家在社区卫生中心举办门诊，并请大学教授进行科普讲座，努力克服普遍认为记忆力减退只是衰老的一部分的信念。

Officials estimate that 53m Chinese have some form of cognitive impairment, of whom 10m have Alzheimer’s. That number will grow as Chinese live longer, for the risk of Alzheimer’s soars after the age of 75. Various dementias already have 16,000 inhabitants of Gongshu in their grip. The district’s residents are older than the national average and enjoy a life expectancy of 83, similar to Japan’s, explains Li Qiuyang, who directs old-age services at the local Centre for Disease Control, a public-health agency. Mr Li has made early detection of dementia a priority. He invites specialists to hold clinics in neighbourhood health centres and asks university professors to give popular-science talks, working to overcome a pervasive belief that memory loss is just part of ageing.

Chaguan在一家由政府补贴、私人管理的社区中心遇到了张先生，该中心设有旨在减缓认知衰退的各种设计。这位90岁的老人来这里领取廉价理发劵，没有停留太久。同一中心提供住宿护理，每月收费约5000元（691美元）。在楼上，患有痴呆症的居民正得到帮助进行陶土和纸的拼贴。一个角落里摆放着文革时期的物品，这些物品可唤起曾经沉睡的记忆，从旧搪瓷杯到绿色帆布书包等等。周边社区也是一个试点计划，商店正面大型图形标识帮助患有痴呆症的人购买水果或找到药店。

Chaguan encounters Mr Zhang in a publicly subsidised, privately managed community centre full of features designed to slow cognitive decline. The 90-year-old has dropped in to collect a coupon for a cheap haircut and is not staying long. The same centre offers residential care, charging around 5,000 yuan ($691) a month. On an upper floor, residents with dementia are being helped to make clay-and-paper collages. A corner is filled with Mao-era items to stir long-dormant memories, from old enamel mugs to a green canvas satchel. The surrounding neighbourhood is a pilot scheme in its own right, with large graphic signs on shop fronts to help those with dementia buy fruit or find the pharmacy.

公立和私立医院正在扩大老年服务，为预计到本世纪中叶时，中国预计将有超过5亿60岁以上老年人的时候做准备。拱墅区的社区中心由乐骥（Lejoy）这家私营医疗公司运营。公司高管范一心表示，老年服务目前几乎没有盈利，部分原因在于今天的老年人对自身舒适度的期望较低，他们经历了文化大革命和其他灾难。她表示，在逐渐变老时，上世纪60年代出生的人将变得更加苛刻。当他们开始要求高质量服务时，“那将真正是一个机遇”。

Public and private hospitals are expanding old-age services, preparing for the time, around mid-century, when China expects to have more than 500m people over 60. The community centre in Gongshu is operated by Lejoy, a private health-care firm. A company executive, Fan Yixin, says that old-age services barely turn a profit for now, in part because today’s elderly have low expectations for their own comfort, after enduring the Cultural Revolution and other disasters. Those born in the 1960s will be more demanding as they age, she says. When they begin to ask for high-quality services “that will really be an opportunity for us.”

目前，拱墅区仍属于少数，而非常态。并不是每个地方都像杭州一样富裕，杭州是中央政府选定的50个试点城市之一，用来测试各种养老项目。尽管许多国家在经历人口老龄化时都面临挑战，但中国起点并不尽如人意。半数中国成年男性吸烟。高血压、抑郁症和糖尿病等慢性疾病普遍存在而且管理不善。所有这些都是痴呆症的风险因素。尽管中国拥有太空计划和航空母舰，但其初级卫生系统薄弱。许多社区医生只在医学院学了三年或更短的时间。因此，生病的城市居民纷纷涌入大型医院向专科医生求诊。许多农村患者从培训不良的乡村医生那里接受传统中医治疗。

For now Gongshu is an exception, not the norm. Few places are as prosperous as Hangzhou, one of 50 pilot cities chosen by the central government to test a range of elder-care programmes. And though lots of countries face challenges as they age, China starts with some disadvantages. Half of adult Chinese men smoke. Chronic conditions including high blood pressure, depression and diabetes are common and poorly managed. All those are risk factors for dementia. For a country boasting a space programme and aircraft-carriers, China has a weak primary health system. Many community doctors spend three years or less at medical school. As a result, sick city-dwellers crowd into large hospitals to seek care from specialists. Lots of rural patients receive traditional Chinese medicines from poorly trained village doctors.

保险覆盖不均。用于检测痴呆症的认知测试广泛可得，但用于确认阿尔茨海默病的脑部成像扫描对患者而言价格昂贵。今年1月，中国成为第三个批准lecanemab（一种新的阿尔茨海默病治疗药物）的国家，售价高达20万元人民币（2.8万美元）/年，大多数人支付不起。痴呆症并未被公共保险计划列为必须覆盖的慢性疾病之一。中国家庭已有高比率储蓄，担心遭遇毁灭性的健康危机。对痴呆症的更多了解将加强这种行为，打击消费需求。

Insurance coverage is patchy. Cognitive tests for detecting dementia are widely available, but brain-imaging scans—an important tool for confirming Alzheimer’s—are expensive for patients. This January China became the third country, after America and Japan, to approve lecanemab, a new treatment for Alzheimer’s. But at up to 200,000 yuan ($28,000) a year, it will be unaffordable for most. Dementia is not one of the chronic diseases that public insurance schemes must cover. Chinese families already save at high rates, fearing ruinous health crises. More awareness of dementia will reinforce that behaviour, sapping consumer demand.

**痴呆症有可能加剧城乡间的分歧。在中国，家庭必须自行承担住院长者护理的费用。最大的国营养老金计划面向城镇职工，退休人员平均每月可领取3600元。而农民工或农民可能每月只能领取200元的养老金，使养老院成为遥不可及的梦想。在农村地区，许多养老院都是荒凉之地，只留给那些无家庭支持的贫困人口。

Dementia threatens to widen rural-urban divides. In China families must fund residential elder care themselves. The largest state-run pension scheme, for salaried urban workers, pays retirees 3,600 yuan a month on average. Migrant workers or farmers may receive pensions of just 200 yuan a month, putting nursing homes out of reach. In rural areas, many of these homes are bleak places, reserved for the poor without families to support them.

通常，城市家庭依赖祖父母帮忙照顾孩子。而在乡村，老人们抚养留守儿童，而劳动年龄的成年人则在其他地方辛勤劳作。中国人结婚生子的年龄正在推迟，因此未来的祖父母将更年长，更容易患上痴呆症。女儿（以及儿媳）将面临辞职或返回乡村照料患病长者的压力。年轻女性已经不愿意生育。如果越来越多人不得不照顾生病的父母（通常没有兄弟姐妹伸出援手，多亏了一孩政策），情况将更加糟糕。

Typically, urban families rely on grandparents for child care. In villages the old raise left-behind children, while working-age adults toil elsewhere. The age at which Chinese marry and have children is rising, so future grandparents will be older and more prone to dementia. Daughters (and daughters-in-law) will face pressure to quit work or return to villages to care for stricken elders. Young women are already reluctant to have children. It cannot help if a growing number must look after sick parents (often with no siblings to lend a hand, thanks to the one-child policy).

中国领导人一直认为老年人和成年女儿以及儿媳会提供自由劳动。国家依赖家庭储蓄和各个经济实力不同的地方政府来资助卫生和社会服务。这已经导致了严重的不平等。痴呆症将对这一体系造成严峻考验。■**

China’s leaders have taken for granted free labour from the old and from adult daughters and daughters-in-law. The state relies on family savings and on local governments of very different means to fund health and social services. That already creates dramatic inequalities. Dementia will test that system to its limits. ■

Read more from Chaguan, our columnist on China:What Ramadan is like in Xinjiang (Apr 11th)China’s tin-eared approach to the world (Apr 4th)China’s low-fertility trap (Mar 21st)

回到目录

美国 | 脱衣舞时间 (United States | Burlesque hour)

唐纳德·特朗普的首次刑事审判将既具有重大意义又俗不可耐 (Donald Trump’s first criminal trial will be both momentous and tawdry)

但这真的重要吗？ (But will it even matter?)

曼哈顿人曾对唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）翻起白眼，之后又开始憎恨他。很快，12个陪审员将决定他是否犯有重罪。他的首次刑事审判的陪审员选拔过程已经加快进行；预计将历时长达八周的审判在一间破旧法庭中进行，检察官将在几天内阐明他们的案件。一位潜在的陪审员坦言，手头的任务使她彻夜难眠：“这在宏大事务中算是挺大的事情。”

Manhattanites once rolled their eyes at Donald Trump. Then they came to revile him. Soon 12 will decide if he is a felon. Jury selection in his first criminal trial, expected to last up to eight weeks in a shabby courtroom, has sped along; prosecutors will set out their case in a matter of days. One prospective juror confessed that the weight of the task at hand had kept her up at night: “This is, like, a big deal in the grand scheme of things.”

是的也不是。曼哈顿地区的检察官艾尔文·布拉格（Alvin Bragg）对前总统提出了首项刑事起诉，而这位前总统也正在再次竞选。但是重罪指控是低级的，案件细节却肮脏不堪。这个案件涉及性、金钱和勒索。特朗普的前律师和代办，他将对他作证，曾将涉及的行为描述为“政治上的肮脏和泥泞”，更直言不讳地称之为“狗屎三明治”。

Yes and no. Manhattan’s district attorney, Alvin Bragg, has brought the first criminal indictment against a former president, who also happens to be running again. But the felony charges are low-level and the details tawdry. The case is about sex, money and blackmail. Mr Trump’s former lawyer and fixer, who will testify against him, once described the conduct at issue as the “filth and muck of politics” and, less delicately, a “shit sandwich”.

随时关注我们的新的每日更新，美国简讯，以及我们的总统民意调查追踪器。

Stay up to date with our new daily update, The US in brief, and our presidential poll tracker.

阅读更多我们对2024年美国选举的报道。

Read more of our coverage of the US elections of 2024.

这些指控集中在特朗普试图收买前色情明星斯蒂芬妮·克利福德（Stephanie Clifford），更为人熟知的是“风暴丹尼尔斯”（Stormy Daniels）的沉默，这发生在2016年选举之前。检察官称这笔付款是为了保护他的候选人身份，因此构成了一笔未申报的竞选费用。特朗普被控伪造商业记录来掩盖这笔封口费。他否认有这样的计划。

The charges centre on Mr Trump’s efforts to buy the silence of Stephanie Clifford, a former porn star better known as Stormy Daniels, before the 2016 election. Prosecutors allege that the payment was made to protect his candidacy and thus amounted to an undeclared campaign expense. Mr Trump is accused of falsifying business records to hide the pay-off. He denies any such scheme.

在他第一次竞选期间，特朗普会见了他的律师迈克尔·科恩（Michael Cohen）和他的友人大卫·佩克（David Pecker），当时后者是一个小报出版公司的老板。佩克同意充当特朗普的“耳目”——寻找有害报道并及时通知竞选团队。当一名前特朗普大厦看门人试图向小报出售有关特朗普生了一个私生子的虚假故事时，佩克警告了特朗普团队，后者指示他购买该故事的独家权利并将其埋藏，这种做法被称为“捉拿和消灭”。当前花花公子模特卡伦·麦克道加尔（Karen McDougal）出面声称她在2006年开始与特朗普有染时，也达成了类似的交易。

Early in his first campaign Mr Trump met his lawyer, Michael Cohen, and his friend David Pecker, then the boss of a tabloid publishing company. Mr Pecker agreed to be Mr Trump’s “eyes and ears”—to look out for damaging stories and alert the campaign to them. When a former Trump Tower doorman tried to sell a bogus story to tabloids about how Mr Trump had fathered an illegitimate child, Mr Pecker warned team Trump, which directed him to buy exclusive rights to the story and bury it, a practice known as “catch and kill”. A similar deal was struck when Karen McDougal, a former Playboy model, emerged from the woodwork to allege an affair with Mr Trump starting in 2006.

在选举前大约一个月，斯蒂芬妮·丹尼尔斯浮出水面，四处宣扬她与特朗普发生性关系的故事，同样是在2006年。当时“录影带中的好莱坞”播出，在录影带中特朗普吹嘘抚摸女性的敏感部位，差点使他的候选资格岌岌可危。竞选团队无法容忍关于他在妻子哺育他们的新生儿时与一名色情明星发生关系的头条新闻。这一次，科恩用自己的钱支付给了克利福德13万美元。

About a month before the election Ms Daniels surfaced, shopping around her story about a sexual encounter with Mr Trump, also in 2006. The “Access Hollywood” tape, in which Mr Trump bragged about grabbing women’s genitals, had just appeared in the press and nearly sunk his candidacy. The campaign could ill-afford headlines about how he had slept with a porn star while his wife was nursing their newborn son. This time Mr Cohen paid Ms Clifford $130,000 from his own pocket.

为了补偿科恩，特朗普据称同意按月支付给他，并将其误标为公司账目中的法律费用。因此，布拉格指控了34项重罪：11项涉及发票，12项涉及分类账目条目，11项涉及支票。通常这些将是轻罪。为了升级这些罪名，检察官必须证明这些记录是伪造的，目的是为了实施或掩饰另一项罪行。他们提出了几项可能性：封口费违反了联邦竞选资金规定，而且对偿还款项未正确缴纳税款。

To reimburse Mr Cohen, Mr Trump allegedly agreed to pay him in monthly instalments and mislabel them as legal expenses in the company’s accounts. Hence the 34 felonies alleged by Mr Bragg: 11 related to invoices, 12 to ledger entries and 11 to cheques. Normally these would be misdemeanours. To upgrade them, prosecutors must show that the records were falsified to commit or conceal another crime. They have suggested a few: that the hush money violated federal campaign-finance rules, and that tax wasn’t properly paid on the reimbursements.

一大批证人将加强检察官的案件。科恩和佩克将就特朗普据称涉入该计划作证。丰富的书面证据包括特朗普亲自签署的支票和他讨论支付麦克道加尔保密费的录音。

A parade of witnesses should bolster the prosecutors’ case. Mr Cohen and Mr Pecker will testify to Mr Trump’s alleged involvement in the scheme. There is an ample paper trail, including cheques that Mr Trump personally signed, and a recording of him discussing the payment for Ms McDougal’s silence.

特朗普的律师将辩称，封口费并没有违法：这笔款项纯粹是为了保护他的个人声誉，让妻子免于尴尬，而不是为了影响选举或绕过竞选资金规定。前民主党总统候选人约翰·爱德华兹（John Edwards）成功提出了这一论点，并被无罪释放，理由是他没有违反竞选资金规定，用于掩盖在2008年选举中一段婚外情和私生子的事实。但是，科恩在法庭上承认这是一种犯罪，这无济于事。2018年，他被判认罪（among other charges）事实未申报的竞选捐款，并入狱一年多。

Mr Trump’s lawyers, for their part, will contend that there was nothing illegal about the hush money: that it was paid purely to protect his personal reputation and spare his wife embarrassment, not to influence the vote or skirt campaign-finance rules. John Edwards, a former Democratic candidate for president, successfully made that argument and was acquitted of breaking campaign-finance laws to hide an affair and a child out of wedlock during the 2008 election. But it will not help that Mr Cohen has admitted in court that it was a crime. In 2018 he pleaded guilty to making an undeclared campaign contribution (among other charges) and spent just over a year in prison.

特朗普先生的主要策略将是质疑科恩先生的信誉，并将他描述为一个编故事者。的确，科恩先生在宣誓证词中撒谎的记录令人印象深刻，并且对他的前老板怀有公开表达的敌意，据报道，前老板喜欢对他恶言相待。如果特朗普先生被定罪，判刑将由法官胡安·默尔钦决定。对于第一次犯罪的白领罪犯来说，监禁似乎不太可能。没有强制的最低刑期。每项指控最高可能被判四年监禁。

Mr Trump’s principal strategy, then, will be to impugn Mr Cohen’s credibility and paint him as a fabulist. Indeed Mr Cohen has an impressive record of lying under oath and a well-documented animus towards his former boss, who reportedly relished treating him like garbage. If Mr Trump is convicted, sentencing will be decided by the judge, Juan Merchan. Jail time seems unlikely for a first-time, white-collar felon. There is no mandatory minimum sentence. Each count carries a maximum of four years in prison.

一个定罪会左右选民的倾向吗？特朗普先生希望他的乱搞不被公之于众既不奇怪也不是新闻；到目前为止，美国人已经习以为常于他的性丑闻。与他的其他指控相比，这算不上什么了不起。选民认为这个指控是四项指控中最不严重的，多数人认为有罪判决对他的政治生涯没有任何影响，根据YouGov的民意调查。无罪裁决将为特朗普先生声称自己是民主党地方检察官布雷格发起政治迫害的受害者提供辩护。

Would a conviction sway voters? That Mr Trump wanted his philandering kept quiet is neither surprising nor news; Americans are inured to his sex scandals by now. Compared with his other indictments this is small bore. Voters consider it the least serious of the four and a plurality thinks a guilty verdict will have no bearing on his political career, according to polling by YouGov. An acquittal would vindicate Mr Trump’s claim to be the victim of a political crusade by Mr Bragg, an elected district attorney who is a Democrat.

这项起诉遭到严厉批评，甚至连左翼律师中也有人批评。人们开始怀疑州检察官是否能提出一个建立在联邦竞选资金违规的案件，因为这本应由联邦检察官来处理。这些问题可能会在上诉中出现，但目前它们仅仅是理论问题：法官拒绝驳回本案。在特朗普先生面临的四项指控中，这或许是唯一一项可能在11月选举前获得判决的。其他更为严重的指控，涉及涉嫌干涉选举和处理机密文件不当的指控，因为一再拖延而受到影响。 ■

The indictment has come in for heavy criticism, even among lawyers on the left. There was doubt about whether state prosecutors could bring a case that rests on a federal campaign-finance violation, since that is the domain of federal prosecutors. Those questions might arise on appeal, but for now they are academic: judges have refused to toss the case out. Of the four indictments against Mr Trump, it may be the only one to produce a verdict before the election in November. The other, weightier charges, about alleged election interference and the mishandling of classified documents, are beset by delays. ■

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美国 | 破碎的信任 (United States | Busted trust)

美国对其机构的信任已经崩溃 (America’s trust in its institutions has collapsed)

后果是什么？ (What are the consequences?)

自刻板印象来看，美国人自信的国家性格长期以来一直是外国人眼中对美国人的定义特点。2006年，当盖洛普首次开始询问美国人对关键机构的信任时，美国在G7集团中排名第一，与英国并列第一。到了2023年，美国首次排在了最后一位。

AS FAR AS stereotypes go, brash national self-confidence has long been a defining feature of how Americans are viewed abroad. In 2006, when Gallup first started asking Americans about their trust in key institutions, the country ranked at the top of the G7 league table, tied with Britain. In 2023, for the first time, America came last.

盖洛普的新数据显示，美国人对几家国家机构的信任正在下降。考虑到国家政治的困境状态，这或许并不令人意外，但多年来的累积下滑令人震惊（见图表）。二十年前，美国人对国家政府的信心在G7国家中排名最高。而今，他们的信心水平最低。美国人与意大利人一样，在对司法系统的信任上居最低，对公正选举的信任也排在最后。甚至军队也受到了信任下降的影响。尽管信任度仍高达81％，但美国对其军队的信任已降至自2006年以来的最低点，甚至——哎呀——低于法国。

New data from Gallup, a pollster, show that American trust in several national institutions is on the decline. That may not be surprising, given the fraught state of the country’s politics, but the cumulative fall over the years is startling (see chart). Twenty years ago Americans had the highest confidence in their national government of people in any G7 country. Today they have the lowest. Americans are tied with Italians in having the lowest trust in their judicial system, and come last in faith in honest elections. Even the army is suffering from a dip. Although still high at 81%, American trust in its armed forces is now lower than at any point since 2006, and—gasp—lower than in France.

自称地球上最伟大的国家的信心危机的原因是多方面的。对政府（健康的）怀疑的根源可追溯到上世纪70年代的越战和水门事件。二战一代逐渐消亡，他们对机构的信任远高于后来的几代人，这也在一定程度上起到了作用。然而，最近的发展有助于解释过去几年信任急剧下降的原因。

The reasons behind this crisis of confidence in the self-declared greatest country on Earth are varied. The roots of a (healthy) scepticism of government can be traced back to the Vietnam war and the Watergate scandal of the early 1970s. The gradual dying-out of the second world war generation, which had significantly higher institutional trust than later generations, also plays a role. However, more recent developments help explain the sharp decline of the past years.

加州大学伯克利分校的亨利·布雷迪表示，唐纳德·特朗普对2020年总统选举提出的“持续强硬”的无根指责明显在美国人对选举制度的低信任度中起到了重要作用。这无疑也造成了对司法的日益不信任——就在上周，特朗普称对他在进行的刑事“封口费”审判是“一场共产主义的政治审判”。但似乎没有比美国最高法院在2022年推翻《罗伊诉韦德》判决更直接地侵蚀了对司法的信任。在这项取消了美国堕胎宪法权利的裁决之前，民主党人和共和党人对法院的信任水平大致相等；此后，民主党人的信心急剧下降。

Donald Trump’s “constant barrage” of unfounded accusations about the 2020 presidential election clearly plays a big role in Americans’ low trust in the electoral system, says Henry Brady of the University of California, Berkeley. This no doubt also contributes to growing distrust of the judiciary—just last week Mr Trump called the criminal “hush money” trial against him “a communist show trial”. But few things seem to have done more to directly erode trust in the judiciary than the Supreme Court’s decision in 2022 to overturn Roe v Wade. Before this ruling removing a constitutional right to abortion in America, Democrats and Republicans trusted the court in roughly equal measure; afterwards, confidence among Democrats dropped through the floor.

与英国的分歧尤为引人注目。尽管英国对该国司法和选举系统的信心处于调查历史上的最高水平，美国的情况却正好相反。如今，约70%的英国人称他们对选举的公正性有信心，而美国只有44%。

The divergence with Britain is especially striking. Whereas British confidence in the country’s judiciary and electoral system is higher than at any point in the history of the survey, America has moved in the opposite direction. Some 70% of Britons now say that they have confidence in the honesty of elections, compared with only 44% of Americans.

盖洛普的本尼迪克特·维格斯观察到：“像美国一样，英国对国家政府的信心出现了相当持续的下降，”“但民主制度的基础以及公正选举的信仰还是相当坚定的。” 现在却不能这样说美国。甚至在更广泛的大多富裕民主国家俱乐部，只有匈牙利、土耳其和哥伦比亚对选举的公正性信任更低。

“Like America, the UK has seen a pretty steady decline in confidence in national government,” observes Benedict Vigers, from Gallup, “but this more core belief in the foundation of the democratic system and in fair elections is still pretty strong.” The same cannot now be said about America. Even within the broader OECD club of mostly rich democracies, only Hungary, Turkey and Colombia have less trust in honest elections.

然而，与整体信任流失相比，真正令布雷迪担心的是美国信任的两极分化加剧。对一些民主党人更信任的机构（新闻业、高等教育、科学）以及对一些共和党人更信任的机构（宗教、武装部队和警察）是一个令人担忧的问题，特别是对于这些机构本身。当这些机构的工作人员日益同质化时，尤其是在主要是进步的高等教育领域以及主要是保守的军事服务领域，问题变得更加严峻。

Yet more than the loss of trust overall, what really worries Mr Brady is the increased polarisation of trust in America. Having some institutions that Democrats trust more (journalism, higher education, science) and others that Republicans trust more (religion, the armed forces and the police) is a matter of concern, particularly for the institutions themselves. The problem is even starker when the workforces of such institutions become increasingly homogenous, something that has happened in predominantly progressive higher education as well as in the predominantly conservative military services.

强大和可信的机构是国家长期稳定的最佳保障之一。广泛信任权威的人更有可能遵守政府的指令，例如报税。根据南安普敦大学的丹尼尔·德文和同事所做的元分析，疫情期间，对政府信任较高的人更有可能接种疫苗，并遵守关于封锁或社交隔离规定的公共卫生指导。盲目信任权威是危险的，一定程度的怀疑是健康的。但美国向着成为一个越来越不信任的地方的滑坡却带来了自身的危险。 ■

Strong and credible institutions count among the best guarantors of a country’s long-term stability. People who broadly trust authority are more likely to comply with government directives, such as filing their tax returns. During the pandemic, people who had high trust in government were more likely to get vaccinated and comply with public-health guidance on lockdowns or social-distancing rules, according to a meta-analysis by Daniel Devine of the University of Southampton and colleagues. Blind trust in authority is dangerous, and a degree of scepticism can be healthy. But America’s slide towards becoming an ever more distrusting place has perils of its own. ■

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美国 | 露天睡觉 (United States | Sleeping rough)

对无家可归的人下达罚单是残忍和不寻常的惩罚吗？ (Is ticketing homeless people a cruel and unusual punishment?)

这个问题让西方城市感到困惑。最高法院将会进行裁决。 (The question has confounded western cities. The Supreme Court will weigh in)

2013年，俄勒冈州格兰茨帕斯市的地方领导举行会议，集思广益，想方设法解决该市不断增加的“流浪问题”。会议记录显示，与会者建议“把常犯者赶出镇子，让他们自生自灭”，并为无家可归的人购买去任何其他地方的公交车票。市议会成员莉莉·摩根表示，“关键是要让他们在我们的市里感到不舒服，这样他们就会想继续上路。”

IN 2013 local leaders in Grants Pass, Oregon, held a meeting to brainstorm ideas for how to tackle the city’s growing “vagrancy problem”. A record of that meeting states that participants suggested “driving repeat offenders out of town and leaving them there”, and buying homeless people a bus ticket to anywhere else. “The point”, said Lily Morgan, a city-council member, “is to make it uncomfortable enough for them in our city so they will want to move on down the road.”

该市位于加利福尼亚边境以北的卡斯凯德和西斯基尤山之间，禁止在公共场所睡觉和露营。在接下来的几年里，俄勒冈法律服务中心的诉讼主任埃德·约翰逊开始收到来自格兰茨帕斯的无家可归者的消息。他回忆说，他们被警察叫醒，被处以无法支付的罚款并被投进监狱。2018年，约翰逊先生代表他的无家可归客户起诉了该市。4月22日，最高法院将听取《格兰茨帕斯诉约翰逊》的口头辩论。案件的核心问题是，当无家可归的人无处可去时，因露天睡觉而受罚是否构成残忍和不寻常的惩罚，而这种惩罚是被《宪法第八修正案》所禁止的。

The city, tucked between the Cascade and Siskiyou mountains north of the California border, banned sleeping and camping in public places. Over the next few years Ed Johnson, the director of litigation for the Oregon Law Centre, a legal charity, started to hear from homeless people in Grants Pass. They were woken by police, he recalls, slapped with fines they couldn’t pay and thrown in jail. In 2018 Mr Johnson sued the city on behalf of his homeless clients. On April 22nd the Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in Grants Pass v Johnson. The question at the heart of the case is whether penalising homeless people for sleeping outside when they have nowhere else to go counts as cruel and unusual punishment, which is banned by the Eighth Amendment.

两个案例将作为重要先例。1962年，最高法院在《罗宾逊诉加利福尼亚州》一案中裁定，加利福尼亚州的一项法律将药瘾定为非法，而不是药物的使用、购买或销售，这是违宪的。大法官波特·斯图尔特在他的多数意见中写道，单单监禁并不构成残忍和不寻常，但该法律定罪的是一种状态，而不是一种行为，“即使只有因得了感冒而被监禁一天，也会是一种残忍和不寻常的惩罚。”

Two cases will serve as important precedent. In 1962 the Supreme Court found in Robinson v California that a Golden State law making drug addiction illegal—rather than the use, purchase or sale of drugs—was unconstitutional. Jail time alone is not cruel and unusual, wrote Justice Potter Stewart, in his majority opinion. But the law criminalised a status rather than an act, and “even one day in prison would be a cruel and unusual punishment for the ‘crime’ of having a common cold.”

2018年，覆盖九个西部州的第九巡回上诉法院将《罗宾逊诉加利福尼亚州》中阐明的逻辑引申至无家可归者。在《马丁诉博伊西》一案中，法院裁定博伊西市不能因无庇护可寻而对露宿者处以罚款，因为这种处罚违反了第八修正案。最高法院于2019年拒绝审查该案。决定审理《格兰茨帕斯诉约翰逊》给了现在比五年前更为保守的法院再一次处理这个问题的机会。

In 2018 the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, which covers nine western states, applied the logic set out in Robinson v California to homelessness. In Martin v Boise the court held that the city of Boise could not penalise people for sleeping rough when no shelter was available to them, as such citations ran afoul of the Eighth Amendment. The Supreme Court declined to review the case in 2019. Deciding to hear Grants Pass v Johnson gives the court, now more conservative than it was five years ago, another crack at the issue.

西部政客们希望法院的裁决能为如何解决帐篷露营地的增加提供明确的指导。2020年至2023年间，美国无家可归人口增长的一半来自包括第九巡回法院在内的九个西部州。其中四分之一以上来自加利福尼亚州。为遵从博伊西和格兰茨帕斯的裁决而向城市提供建议的律师奥斯卡·雷声称，它们比许多人想象的要狭窄。“清场”或拆散露营地是允许的，只要城市不对无处可寻的无家可归者开出罚单。这种清场做法对活动人士来说是忌讳的，他们认为拆除帐篷是一种创伤，但这并不将无家可归罪化。

Western politicians are hoping the court’s ruling will offer clarity on how to tackle the proliferation of tent encampments. Half of the growth in America’s homeless population between 2020 and 2023 came from the nine western states that comprise the Ninth Circuit. More than a quarter came from California alone. Oskar Rey, a lawyer who advised cities on how to comply with the Boise and Grants Pass rulings, argues that they are narrower than many think. “Sweeping” or breaking up encampments is allowable so long as cities aren’t ticketing homeless people who have no other shelter, argues Mr Rey. Sweeping encampments is anathema to activists who argue that tearing down tents is traumatising, but doing so does not criminalise homelessness.

然而，一些政策制定者认为法院束缚了他们的手脚。在一些情况下，这是事实。2022年，一位联邦法官广泛解释了博伊西和约翰逊的裁决，并阻止了旧金山在没有其他庇护可寻时清场。政客们把责任归咎于法院还有另一个原因：抱怨法官比为失败的政策承担责任更容易。

Still, some policymakers argue that the courts have tied their hands. In some cases that is true. In 2022 a federal judge interpreted the Boise and Johnson rulings broadly, and blocked San Francisco from clearing encampments when there is no other shelter available. Politicians have another reason to blame the courts: it is easier to whine about judges than to shoulder the blame themselves for failed policies.

对《约翰逊》的兴趣也揭示了一个更大的趋势。甚至在新冠大流行的早期阶段，民主党人对清除露营地持谨慎态度。在西部的自由市长们如今大肆宣扬他们试图根除露营地的做法，这证明了他们的选民对洛杉矶、旧金山和波特兰的无家可归问题感到多么厌倦。帐篷已经成为混乱和失败政策的象征。难怪希望保住职位的政客们希望它们消失。 ■

The interest in Johnson is also revealing of a larger trend. As recently as the early part of the covid-19 pandemic, Democrats were leery of sweeping away encampments. That liberal mayors around the West are now trumpeting their attempts to eradicate them is testimony to how fed up their voters are with homelessness in Los Angeles, San Francisco and Portland. Tents have come to symbolise disorder and failed policies. No wonder politicians who hope to stay in office want them gone.■

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美国 | 拜登和学生贷款 (United States | Biden and student loans)

白宫公布了一对糟糕的政策来拉拢选民 (The White House unveils a pair of bad policies to woo voters)

钢铁工人征收关税，学生获得贷款宽免，两者皆属于逆向税。 (Tariffs for steelworkers and loan forgiveness for students are both regressive)

在选举年期间国会很少有所作为，这在华盛顿被视为司空见惯。这意味着那些拍马赞誉的政客，尤其是总统，需要发挥创造力。考虑一下乔·拜登总统最近为巩固传统上支持民主党的选民群体所做的两项举措。

It is a Washington truism that little gets done in Congress during an election year. This means that pandering politicians, and particularly the president, need to get creative. Consider two recent moves by President Joe Biden to shore up support among blocs traditionally supportive of the Democratic Party.

4月17日，拜登先生呼吁对中国钢铁和铝产品实行25%的关税；在某些情况下，这相当于将现有进口税增加到三倍以上。这是继前总统唐纳德·特朗普对一些产品征收关税之后的额外关税。拜登还告诉一家钢铁工人工会，他的政府将调查中国造船补贴，并与墨西哥合作阻止中国关税逃避。**

On April 17th Mr Biden called for a 25% tariff on certain Chinese steel and aluminium products; in some cases that amounts to more than tripling existing import taxes. This is in addition to tariffs put in place by Donald Trump on some products. Mr Biden also told a steelworkers’ union that his administration will investigate Chinese shipbuilding subsidies and work with Mexico to block Chinese tariff evasion.

在这些动态之前，教育部在关税公布前一天提出了一项规定，将免除那些学生贷款欠款高于最初借款额的美国人的未偿利息。约2500万选民可能会受益。该计划还将帮助200多万持有贷款至少20年以及另外200万符合现有援助计划资格但未注册的借款人。那些就读“低经济价值项目或机构”的人也可以得到救助。

Stay up to date with our new daily update, The US in brief, and our presidential poll tracker.

该规则将经历一个为期一个月的公开征求意见期，然后进行审查。政府希望在秋季实施这项新提议。所有这些都是在4月12日宣布另一波学生贷款宽减，共计740亿美元。教育部还在研究另一个提议，以帮助那些“在偿还贷款时遇到困难”的人。

Read more of our coverage of the US elections of 2024.

这些举措是白宫长期以来减轻数千亿美元学生贷款负担的最新行动。白宫估计已经批准了1530亿美元（占国内生产总值的0.6%）给400多万个借款人。负责任联邦预算委员会（CRFB）认为新政策开销为1470亿美元。面临困境而获得的减免金额可能介于1000亿美元和6000亿美元之间，具体取决于最终提议的严格程度。

The day before the tariff announcement, the Department of Education proposed a regulation that would forgive unpaid interest for Americans who owe more on their student loans than they originally borrowed. Around 25m voters could benefit. The plan would also help more than 2m borrowers who have held loans for at least 20 years and an additional 2m who qualified for existing assistance programmes but didn’t sign up. Those who attended “low-financial-value programmes or institutions” could get relief as well.

对于民主党来说，这可能是明智的政治举动，因为他们继续巩固受过大学教育的选民支持，并担心失去被特朗普的向他们伸出的橄榄枝所诱惑的普通工会成员。作为政策，这些举措是对受益群体的逆行安抚，却以牺牲其他美国人为代价。

The rule faces a month-long public-comment period, then a review. The administration hopes to implement the new proposal by the autumn. All this follows an announcement on April 12th of another student-loan cancellation for 277,000 borrowers that adds up to $7.4bn. The Education Department is working on yet another proposal to help those “experiencing hardship” repaying their loans.

钢铁和铝关税具有通货膨胀性，对低收入美国人更加不利。至于学生贷款宽减，帮助高违约风险借款人可能是进步的。但许多贷款人在相对良好的财务状况下背负债务，是因为他们选择只支付最低月供。一些选民可能会质疑，法学院毕业生是否真的比管道工需要更多联邦援助。

These moves are the latest in a long White House campaign to relieve hundreds of billions of dollars in student debt. The White House estimates that it already has approved $153bn (or 0.6% of GDP) for more than 4m borrowers. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) believes the new policies cost $147bn. The hardship cancellation could range between $100bn and $600bn, depending how stringent the final proposal is.

国会赋予总统很大但不是无限的权力来实施关税；拜登的学生贷款行动更加值得怀疑。最高法院曾驳回一项先前提议，该提议依赖于对允许在国家紧急情况下进行债务减免的法律过度宽泛的解读。CRFB的马克·戈德温对于新提议说：“这个目标更为具体，但如果你选择目标足够多，结果会类似。”

This is probably good politics for Mr Biden, as the Democratic Party continues to consolidate support among college-educated voters and worries about losing rank-and-file union members seduced by Mr Trump’s overtures towards them. As policies, they are retrograde bungs to favoured groups at the expense of other Americans.

两党均认为对拜登学生贷款努力的成本、合法性和公平性展开辩论具有价值。在此同时，这个国家正回避对过去几十年来使大学教育变得如此昂贵的更为严肃的讨论。而拜登的关税举措只是拥抱保护主义已经成为两党习惯的最新迹象。

The steel and aluminium tariffs are inflationary, which makes them worse for low-income Americans. As for student-loan forgiveness, helping borrowers at high default risk could be progressive. But many borrowers in relatively good financial health carry debt because they choose to cover only their minimum monthly payments. Some voters might wonder whether law-school graduates really need more federal help than plumbers.

Congress has given the presidency broad but not unlimited authority to enact tariffs; Mr Biden’s student-loan actions are more dubious. The Supreme Court struck down a previous proposal, which relied on an overly expansive reading of a law that allowed for debt forgiveness during national emergencies. “This one is a lot more targeted, but if you pick enough targets, you get to a similar place,” Marc Goldwein of the CRFB says of the new proposal.

Both parties see value in having a debate about the cost, legality and fairness of Mr Biden’s student-loan efforts. While that goes on, the country is avoiding a more serious conversation about what has made college so expensive in the past few decades. And Mr Biden’s tariff play is only the latest sign that embracing protectionism is now a bipartisan habit. ■

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美国 | 无法碰触这个 (United States | Can touch this)

许多州立法者相信与芬太尼接触会致命 (Lots of state legislators believe any contact with fentanyl is fatal)

（事实并非如此） ((It is not))

在警匪剧《蓝血亲情》中，侦探玛丽亚·巴埃兹触摸了覆盖着 芬太尼 的盘子，这是一种强大的合成阿片类药物。片刻之后，她被紧急送往医院，为生命而战。在现实世界中，病毒视频显示急救人员似乎受到了这种药物的伤害。在一个视频中，一名警官被警告不要靠近这个物质。几秒钟后，他踉跄后退，摔倒在地。他的同事们施用了 纳洛酮，这是一种能够逆转阿片类药物过量效应的药物，他慢慢恢复了意识。

In an episode of the cop drama “Blue Bloods”, Detective Maria Baez touches a dish covered in fentanyl, a powerful synthetic opioid. Moments later she is rushed to the hospital, fighting for her life. In the real world, viral videos show first responders seemingly harmed by the drug. In one, an officer is warned not to get too close to the substance. Within seconds he staggers back and falls to the ground. His peers administer naloxone, a drug that reverses the effects of opioid overdose, and he slowly regains consciousness.

这种恐惧是如此普遍，以至于佛罗里达州州长朗·德桑提斯于4月8号签署了一项法案，将通过“吸入” 芬太尼 或“皮肤吸收”而“导致过量或严重身体伤害”而对急救人员的生命造成危险判为重罪，刑罚是监禁。然而，没有记录显示这种情况发生过，医学研究人员称这种情况极其不太可能发生。“这项法律将对一种在科学上不可能发生且从未发生的事情进行重罪袭击指控。”克利夫兰医疗中心大学医院的毒理学家瑞安·马里诺说道。

The fear is so widespread that Florida’s governor, Ron DeSantis, even signed a bill on April 8th making it a felony, punishable with prison time, to recklessly endanger the life of a first responder by causing “inhalation” of fentanyl or “absorption through skin” which leads to “an overdose or serious bodily injury”. Yet there is no documented case of this taking place and medical researchers say it is extremely unlikely. “The law creates a felony assault charge for something that is scientifically impossible and has never happened,” says Ryan Marino, a toxicologist at University Hospitals Cleveland Medical Centre.

美国禁毒局于2017年的网页警告急救人员有关 芬太尼 的危险。“全国范围内的阿片类药物流行造成了混乱和悲痛……任何与 芬太尼 接触都可能导致无辜的执法人员、急救人员和公众死亡。” 芬太尼 确实是一种可怕的药物。它负责每年 70% 的药物过量死亡数量。执法工作也是一项艰难的工作。由于职责性质，警官们比一般公众面临更大的风险。

The Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) has a webpage from 2017 warning first responders about the dangers of fentanyl. “The opioid epidemic nationwide has caused havoc and heartbreak…Any fentanyl exposure can kill innocent law enforcement, first responders and the public.” Fentanyl is indeed a scary drug. It is responsible for 70% of drug-overdose deaths per year. And policing is also a tough job. By the nature of the role, officers are at greater risk than the general public.

但毒理学家表明这样的偶发暴露并不会造成伤害。美国医学毒理学学院和美国临床毒理学学院表示，“ 芬太尼 及其类似物是有效的阿片类受体激动剂，但急救人员发生临床上显著接触的风险极低。”根据疾病预防控制中心，没有执法人员在执行职务时因 芬太尼 暴露而死亡。

But toxicologists show that such incidental exposures are not harmful. The American College of Medical Toxicology and the American Academy of Clinical Toxicology say that “fentanyl and its analogs are potent opioid receptor agonists, but the risk of clinically significant exposure to emergency responders is extremely low.” According to the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, no law-enforcement officers have died from fentanyl exposure while performing their duties.

如果 芬太尼 确实像禁毒局等机构声称的那样有毒，那么每个人都会处于风险之中。研究人员在公共场所，如公共汽车上发现了微量的该药物。然而乘客和司机并没有死亡。护士和医生每天都会给药并治疗过量者。除非他们穿戴防护装备，“毒品贩子也会‘左死右死’”，多伦多大学的 大卫·尤尔林克 说道。但布朗大学的前警察局长和公共卫生教授布兰登·德尔波佐说，在涉及 芬太尼 的贩毒行动中，现场经常相当随意。“有人在看电视，有人在吃中餐外卖，另一人在桌子上切割 芬太尼，”他解释说。“他们没有穿防护服和防毒面具。”

If fentanyl were truly as toxic as claimed by agencies like the DEA, then everyone would be at risk. Researchers have found trace amounts of the drug in public spaces, such as buses. Yet passengers and drivers are not dying. Nurses and doctors administer the drug and treat overdose victims every day. Drug-dealers would also “be dropping dead left, right, and centre”, says David Juurlink of the University of Toronto, unless they wore protective equipment. But Brandon del Pozo, a former police chief and public-health professor at Brown University, says that during fentanyl-related drug busts, the scene was often quite casual. “There’s one guy watching TV, one guy eating Chinese takeout, another guy cutting fentanyl on the table,” he explains. “They are not wearing hazmat suits and gas masks.”

传播有关偶发伤害的神话使本来就艰难的工作变得更加困难。“想象一下成为一名警察，相信每次接近这些人，我都可能丧命，”德尔波佐博士说。“这是一种极不必要的压力来源。” 一些医疗专业人员表示，那些病毒视频中的警官可能真的有了真实的生理反应，但并不像阿片类药物过量的症状。一些人认为这些警官可能遭受了惊慌。

Perpetuating the myth of incidental harm makes an already tough job that much more fraught. “Imagine being a cop and believing that any time I go near these people, I could just die,” says Dr Del Pozo. “That is an incredibly needless source of stress.” Some medical professionals say that the officers in those viral videos probably had real physical reactions, but they do not resemble the symptoms of an opioid overdose. Some think the officers may have been stricken with panic instead.

对于 芬太尼 潜在毒性的困惑也可能对真正中毒的人造成后果。毒品使用者可能现在会因为害怕受到惩罚而犹豫为中毒者求助。如果急救人员花时间穿戴不必要的防护装备，中毒者可能会因此丧命。

Confusion about the potency of fentanyl could also have consequences for people who are actually overdosing. Drug users may now hesitate to call for help for an overdose victim for fear of punishment. If first responders take time donning unnecessary protective gear, the victim could die.

佛罗里达州的立法者仍然通过了这项法案。草案的主要赞助者，退伍特种部队绿扁帽军人和州参议员杰依·柯林斯对反对者毫不动摇。“我们必须确保保护并维护我们的执法人员，”他说。“我希望我们的执法人员清楚地知道，我们佛罗里达人始终支持他们。” ■

Lawmakers in Florida passed the bill anyway. Jay Collins, a Green Beret army veteran and state senator who sponsored it, is undeterred by the naysayers. “We have to make sure we protect and preserve our law enforcement,” he says. “I want our law enforcement to know that, unequivocally, we here in Florida have their back.”■

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美国 | 如果你建造它，他们会起诉 (United States | If you build it, they will sue)

两个德克萨斯州小镇如何成为美国的专利法中心 (How two small Texas towns became the patent-law centre of America)

企业家精神的法官是好还是坏？ (Are entrepreneurial judges a good or a bad thing?)

2019年，一位名为艾伦·奥尔布赖特（Alan Albright）的联邦法官向一群律师做演讲。他在德克萨斯州韦科市的法庭里是唯一的法官，该市附近有一家甜品店。这次演讲主题是“为什么你应该在‘嘿糖’对面提起你的下一个专利案件”。

In 2019 a federal judge named Alan Albright gave a presentation to a group of lawyers. His courthouse in Waco, Texas, where he is the only judge, sits near a sweet shop. The talk was called “Why You Should File Your Next Patent Case Across the Street from the ‘Hey Sugar’”.

听完他的演讲后，知识产权律师们显然被说服了。根据法律分析公司Lex Machina的数据，就在任命不到两年后，奥尔布赖特法官就处理了近20%的全国专利案件。到了2021年，这一比例已经增至23%。来自纽约和加利福尼亚的顶级律师团队代表着谷歌和英特尔等客户，纷纷涌入位于德克萨斯州中部、人口14万的韦科市，这个城市更广为人知的是可乐饮料“博士辣椒”（Dr Pepper）的发源地，这种饮料颇具争议。

The intellectual-property lawyers who heard his pitch were apparently persuaded. Less than two years after being appointed to the bench, Judge Albright had nearly 20% of the country’s patent cases, according to Lex Machina, a legal-analytics firm. By 2021, he had 23%. Trial teams of white-shoe attorneys from New York and California, representing clients such as Google and Intel, began streaming into Waco, a city of 140,000 people in central Texas more widely known for being the birthplace of Dr Pepper, a questionable fizzy drink.

地产开发商、韦科市本地人比尔·维特曼（Bill Wetterman）发现了一个商机。2021年，他开设了Legal Lawfts，这是一种可以租赁的办公室——在行话中称之为“作战室”，配备了安全摄像头、备用互联网，并且可以根据需求提供无麸质奥利奥饼干。

Bill Wetterman, a real-estate developer and Waco native, spotted a business opportunity. In 2021 he opened up Legal Lawfts, rentable offices—“war rooms”, in the parlance—that come outfitted with security cameras, back-up internet and, by request, gluten-free Oreos.

在韦科，维特曼先生的竞争对手包括Connect Litigation，这家公司在市中心运营着一些作战室。但是Connect的业务主要集中在东北方向约200英里。在马歇尔（Marshall），一个约有2.4万人口的陈旧但古雅的小镇，这里的“专利案件清单”是众所周知的名词，并且其约2000年至2020年间，联邦法院中提起的专利案件中有超过17%产生在德克萨斯州东区，大约有1.35万起。相比之下，在特拉华注册的大多数美国大公司少于1万起；而在大型科技公司位于的加利福尼亚北区则少于5,000起。

In Waco Mr Wetterman’s competitors include Connect Litigation, a firm that runs a few war rooms downtown. But Connect focuses its operations about 200 miles north-east. The “patent docket” is a familiar term in Marshall, a faded but quaint town of about 24,000 people near the Louisiana border. Between 2000 and 2020, more than 17% of all patent cases filed in federal court were in the Eastern District of Texas—roughly 13,500. By comparison Delaware, where most big American companies are incorporated, had fewer than 10,000 cases; the Northern District of California, where Big Tech firms are based, had fewer than 5,000.

从1999年至2011年担任马歇尔联邦法官的 T. John Ward 对该市的受欢迎程度负有责任。专利案件是技术性的。法官们必须裁定诸如公司敏感源代码共享之类的事项：原告认为这将证明他们的案件；被告则抵制，担心他们的机密将会泄霑。他们还必须解释一个专利的文字实际意义，这可能会“决定案件走向”，专利诉讼律师马克·西格蒙德（Mark Siegmund）说。专利案件有时需要数年才能进入审判阶段。

T. John Ward, Marshall’s federal judge from 1999 to 2011, is responsible for the town’s puzzling popularity. Patent cases are technical. Judges must referee the sharing of sensitive source code, for example: plaintiffs argue it will prove their case; defendants resist, fearing their secrets will leak. They also interpret what a patent’s words actually mean, which can be “outcome determinative”, says Mark Siegmund, a patent litigator in Waco. Cases can also take years to get to trial.

沃德先生得知加利福尼亚北部法院已实施地方规则，以在这些臃肿的案件中建立诸如律师所称的“确定性”——可预测的流程。他采纳类似的规则，并调整它们以优先速度。当事人在马歇尔面临审判的时间是加利福尼亚的一半。同时期，“也碰巧出现了专利流氓诉讼的激增，”指的是拥有糟糕专利并寻求快速低廉和解的原告，指出天普尔大学的保罗·古里乌扎（Paul Gugliuzza）。到2010年代中期，沃德的继任者罗德尼·吉尔斯特拉普（Rodney Gilstrap）管理着大约全国四分之一的专利案件。

Mr Ward learned that Northern California’s court had implemented local rules to build what lawyers call “certainty”—a predictable process—into the unwieldy cases. He adopted similar ones, tweaking them to prioritise speed. Litigants reached trial in half the time it took in California. Around the same period, “it also happened that there was an explosion of patent-troll litigation,” says Paul Gugliuzza of Temple University, referring to plaintiffs who own bad patents and seek quick and cheap settlements. By the mid-2010s Mr Ward’s successor, Rodney Gilstrap, had about a quarter of the country’s patent cases.

马歇尔的法院案件量使得市中心的业务繁荣。一家酒店购买了PACER的订阅，这是一个可用于法庭记录的在线数据库，以跟踪潜在的客户。为了让当地人（即：陪审团）更喜欢他们，频繁成为被告的三星赞助了法庭对面的溜冰场。TiVo在家畜拍卖会上花费了1万美元买下了一头冠军牛，并将其命名为TiVo。

The caseload in Marshall books up the courthouse and boosts businesses downtown. One hotel bought a subscription to PACER, an online database for court records, to keep track of potential clients. In an apparent bid to make locals (read: jurors) like it more, Samsung, a frequent defendant, sponsored an ice rink across from the courthouse. TiVo spent $10,000 on a champion steer at a livestock auction, and named it TiVo.

这种状况有些令人不适。联邦法官应该是通才，而法院不应该撑起当地的经济。德拉华州的专利诉讼律师安德鲁·拉塞尔（Andrew Russell）表示，规则“往往更有利于原告”。被告通常会试图将他们的案件转移到其他地方。然而，这在一定程度上是因为快速的步调对原告有利，深口袋的被告能够负担起拉长诉讼时间的费用。早期，东区的裁决是一边倒的，因为高档的辩护律师在陪审团面前“糟糕透了”，马歇尔长期专利诉讼律师迈克尔·史密斯（Michael Smith）表示。如今，根据Lex Machina的数据，在韦科，实际上被告赢得更多。

This sits uneasily with some. Federal judges are meant to be generalists, and courts are not supposed to power their local economies. And the rules “tend to be more plaintiff-friendly”, says Andrew Russell, a patent litigator in Delaware. Defendants often try to transfer their cases elsewhere. Yet that is partly because the speedy tempo suits plaintiffs, as deep-pocketed defendants can afford to drag out litigation. Early on, verdicts in the Eastern District were lopsided, because the posh defence lawyers were “terrible” at arguing before juries, says Michael Smith, a longtime patent litigator in Marshall. Verdicts in the Eastern District now conform to national averages: in Waco, defendants actually win more, according to Lex Machina.

但是，马歇尔的形象已经很糟糕，以至于2017年，最高法院通过要求被告在被起诉地区拥有“定期和稳定”业务，有效上降低了原告在那里提起诉讼的难度。苹果关闭了附近的商店。（三星没有关闭，尽管设立溜冰场，去年却在马歇尔遭到了3.03亿美元的陪审团裁决。）

But the optics in Marshall were sufficiently bad that in 2017 the Supreme Court made it harder, in effect, for plaintiffs to file lawsuits there, by requiring defendants to have “regular and established” business where they are sued. Apple shut down its nearby stores. (Samsung did not and, despite the ice-rink, was hit with a $303m jury verdict in Marshall last year.)

到了2021年，由于当地规则的原因，韦科的专利案件清单变得同样迅速，也开始受到关注。最高法院首席大法官约翰·罗伯茨（John Roberts）承认了参议员对那里“专利诉讼极度集中”的担忧。自2022年起，韦科的专利案件被要求通过抽签的方式分配，以便得到德克萨斯西区的12名法官中的任何一位。到2023年，总体提起的专利案件**数量减少，韦科看到了急剧下降的局面。

By 2021 Waco’s patent docket—similarly speedy, thanks to local rules—was attracting scrutiny, too. John Roberts, the chief justice of the Supreme Court, acknowledged senators’ concerns about the “extreme concentration of patent litigation” there. Starting in 2022 Waco patent cases were required to be put into a lottery, so that any of the Western District of Texas’s 12 judges could draw them. In 2023 fewer patent cases were filed overall, and Waco saw a steep drop-off.

专利诉讼可能合理地需要一个专门的法院，类似于美国处理破产案件的系统，由经验丰富的法官组成。德克萨斯大学的史蒂夫·弗拉德克说：“国会可能认为创立一个国家专利法院是明智的，有令人信服的理由。问题在于，决定这个问题的是国会，而不是得克萨斯州第37大城市的法官。” 实际上，韦科在该州排名第24位。马歇尔并列第138位。 ■

Patent litigation could reasonably warrant a specialised court, similar to the system America uses to handle bankruptcy cases, stacked with experienced judges. “There are compelling reasons why Congress might think it was wise to create a national patent court,” says Steve Vladeck of the University of Texas. “The problem is that it’s for Congress to decide, not the judge of the 37th-largest city in Texas.” Waco in fact ranks 24th in the state. Marshall is tied for 138th.■

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美国 | 莱克星敦 (United States | Lexington)

也是如何他动摇了美国人现实的令人不安的证据。 (And disturbing evidence of how he destabilises reality for Americans)

自唐纳德·特朗普的传媒公司于3月26日开始公开交易以来，股价已下滑超过一半，引发头条新闻，并有一些左翼人士为其下滑而欣喜。然而，仍然比起有人购买这些股票更不值得关注：即使每股价格约为26美元，投资者对特朗普的社交媒体平台”真相社交“的重视价值高得离谱，与其表现或潜在潜力相比。

Since shares in Donald Trump’s media firm began trading publicly on March 26th, their value has slid by more than half, prompting headlines, and some crowing from the left, about the decline. Which still seems less newsworthy than that anyone is buying at all: even at roughly $26 per share, investors are prizing Mr Trump’s social-media platform, Truth Social, at a heroic value relative to its performance or apparent potential.

我们必须写成”约”每股26美元，因为就连《华尔街日报》也很难确定有多少股份在外。投资者可能面临的其他潜在风险包括，公司的独立审计师于3月25日报告称其”运营亏损严重，对其继续作为持续经营单位表达疑虑”。在预测2023年销售额为1.44亿美元后，真相社交仅实际获得410万美元的收入，并亏损5,820万美元。

One must write “roughly” $26 per share because even the Wall Street Journal has struggled to ascertain just how many shares are outstanding. Other possible red flags for investors include the company’s independent auditor reported on March 25th that its “operating losses raise substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern”. After forecasting sales of $144m for 2023, Truth Social delivered just $4.1m, and a loss of $58.2m.

真相社交声称正在与Facebook和亚马逊等已经获得牢固立足的巨头竞争，但却没有披露其受众数量。在一份监管文件中，公司试图将此作为一种优点，并辩称”遵循传统的关键绩效指标”，如流量或广告结果——通常让媒体投资者着迷的那种结果——可能会”将注意力转移至业务的战略评估”。根据3月的数据，分析公司Similarweb发现真相社交约有770万独立访客，或者约占Facebook流量的0.05%。

Truth Social says it is contending with such entrenched giants as Facebook and Amazon, but it does not disclose its audience numbers. In a regulatory filing it tried to make a virtue of this by arguing that “adhering to traditional key performance indicators” such as traffic or advertising results—the sorts of results that typically obsess media investors—could “potentially divert its focus from strategic evaluation” of its business. For March, the analytics firm Similarweb found Truth Social had about 7.7m unique visitors, or roughly 0.05% of Facebook’s traffic.

也许这些现实情况将突然拖累股价。但要使其脱离信仰领域进入理性领域，还有很长的路要走。投资研究公司Morningstar的副总裁约翰·雷肯塞勒估计，如果人们像评估特斯拉、谷歌和Facebook等公司的首次公开募股一样来评估真相社交，那股价将只卖50美分。

Maybe such realities will suddenly drag down the stock. But it has a long way to fall to depart the reaches of faith for the realm of reason. John Rekenthaler, a vice-president of Morningstar, an investment research firm, has estimated that if people valued Truth Social as they did the initial offerings of such firms as Tesla, Google and Facebook, the shares would be selling for 50 cents.

与其他初创公司的投资者相比，真相社交的投资者显然不依赖于相同类型的分析，甚至不沉迷于同样类型的梦想。他们甚至不玩弄和推高像AMC和GameStop等模因股票一样被推高到不合理估值的那些在线投资者玩的同一场游戏。

Investors in Truth Social, compared with those in other startups, are clearly not relying upon the same sort of analysis or even indulging the same sort of dream. They are not even playing the same game as the very online investors who drove up such meme stocks as AMC and GameStop to irrational valuations that were also relative fractions of the paper value of Mr Trump’s company.

这里发生了其他事情，是市场逻辑的一种震荡，甚至是与常识的一种破裂。也许投资者相信特朗普将在11月获胜，并作为拥有自己社交平台的第一位总统，坚持在平台上发表所有言论。也许他们崇拜他，并希望他的财富翻番。无论是出于什么动机，特朗普的股票表现到目前为止代表了他不仅能够扭曲现实的力量，还能将错觉转化为现实——而且，也许，这反映了美国人如何开始混淆这两者。

Something else is happening here, a tremor in market logic, even a rupture with common sense. Maybe investors believe that Mr Trump will win in November and, as the first president with his own social platform, insist on making all his pronouncements upon it. Maybe they adore him and want to multiply his billions. Whatever their motives, the performance of Mr Trump’s stock so far represents the purest demonstration of his power not just to bend reality, but to convert illusion into reality—and also, maybe, of how Americans are coming to confuse the two.

多年来，特朗普利用他在虚拟世界中的精湛技术——他在线上制造的争议和刺激——提升他的政治权力。他在真相社交上拥有700万追随者，而在X上有8700万追随者。但通过亲自接管他擅长引发的虚拟事件，他创造了巨大的虚拟价值，并似乎正在将这种虚拟价值转化为真正的财富。特朗普持有公司的7,880万股，约占总股本的57%，如果股价维持在17.50美元以上直到4月底，他将获得另外3600万股。根据”封锁”协议，特朗普不能在六个月内出售股票，直到9月25日，除非公司的董事会解除了这一限制。

For years Mr Trump has used his mastery of the virtual world—the controversy and excitement he generates online—to increase his political power. He has just 7m followers on Truth Social, compared with 87m followers on X. But by taking ownership himself of the virtual events he is so skilled at provoking, he has created tremendous paper value, and he appears to be on his way to turning that virtual value into real wealth. Mr Trump holds 78.8m shares in the company, or about 57% of the total, and he is due to receive 36m more if the share price stays above $17.50 until late April. Under a “lockup” agreement Mr Trump cannot sell for six months, until September 25th, unless the company’s board releases him from the restriction.

特朗普所谓的”真实夸大”，其他人称之为谎言，一直是他成功的关键所在。当他建造特朗普大厦时，该大楼共58层，但在编号时跳过了十层，声称共有68层。这种策略有时会让他吃亏，最严重的一次是在2月份，纽约法官判定特朗普多年来为获取贷款和达成交易而说谎，对他处以3.55亿美元的罚款——比如将他的阁楼公寓的面积增至三倍，以及根据其佛罗里达马阿拉戈庄园的开发潜力估值，尽管他已放弃开发该庄园为住宅以外用途的权利。

What Mr Trump has called “truthful hyperbole”, and others call lying, has been central to his success. When he built Trump Tower it had 58 floors, but in numbering them he skipped ten to claim 68 instead. This tactic has occasionally caught up with him, most severely in the $355m penalty imposed on him in February after a New York judge found Mr Trump had lied for years to secure loans and make deals—trebling the size of his penthouse apartment, for example, and valuing his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida based on its potential for residential development, though he had surrendered the rights to develop it as anything but a club.

然而，特朗普标志性的夸大之词正是真相社交的基础。它的价值建立在他的参与上——他与公司达成的协议限制了他在其他地方发布内容——他的帖子充满夸张，如果不是谎言，无论是关于针对他的刑事案件、总统乔·拜登，还是国家的状况。这是一种欺诈吗？还是这就是在线生活，以及如何通过广告、股市或选票来最好地创造价值，然后用离线货币进行交换？

Yet Mr Trump’s trademark hyperbole is the very foundation of Truth Social. Its value rests on his participation—his agreement with the company constrains his posting elsewhere—and his posts are full of exaggerations if not lies, whether about the criminal cases against him, President Joe Biden, or the state of the country. Is that some sort of fraud? Or is it just life online, and how value is best created there, to be exchanged for an offline currency via advertising, the stockmarket or the ballot box?

虚拟现实似乎总是近在咫尺。像“第二人生”这样的替代数字世界并未流行起来，笨重的增强现实头戴设备被证明更令人反感而非沉浸。但美国人也许没有意识到，在线现实—对大多数人来说，在不久前根本不存在的现实—已经回溯到现实世界，扭曲了他们的政治、人际关系，以及他们对真相或价值的认识。统御这一切的规则已经改变，新规则并不清楚。特朗普先生等人仍在创造这些规则。

Virtual reality always seems to be a step away. Alternative digital worlds like “Second Life” have not caught on, and clunky AR headsets have proved more aversive than immersive. But Americans may not recognise the degree to which reality online—a reality that did not exist for most just a generation ago—has washed back into the real world, distorting their politics, their relationships, their apprehension of what is true or what has value. The rules governing all of this have changed, and it is not clear what the new rules are. Mr Trump and others are still inventing them.

乔治·W·布什总统政府的官员们曾嘲笑所谓的“现实主义社群”，并坚称他们可以“创造我们自己的现实”。与特朗普相比，他们只是小儿科。在2016年总统竞选期间，他将政治支持者称为“运动”似乎很荒谬。如今合理地说，他可称为自罗纳德·里根以来美国政治上最重要的人物。也许特朗普会在十一月的选举中失利，也许那会导致“真相之社”公司股价暴跌，如果不是在此之前就倒闭了。但现在还买几股似乎并非疯狂之举。 ■

Officials in the administration of President George W. Bush used to deride what they called the “reality-based community” and insist they could “create our own reality”. They were pikers compared with Mr Trump. It seemed like a joke, during his campaign for president in 2016, when he referred to his political following as a “movement”. Now it is reasonable to call him the most consequential figure in American politics since Ronald Reagan. Maybe Mr Trump will lose the election in November, and maybe that will cause stock in Truth Social to crash, if it does not collapse before then. But it does not seem like a crazy act to buy a few shares now, just in case. ■

阅读更多来自列克星敦的专栏文章：美国进步人士是否正在使自己悲伤？ (4月4日)Stormy Daniels案件与过去的丑闻如出一辙 (3月27日)本雅明·内塔尼亚胡正在疏远以色列最好的朋友 (3月18日)

Read more from Lexington, our columnist on American politics:Are American progressives making themselves sad? (Apr 4th)The case of Stormy Daniels echoes past scandals (Mar 27th)Binyamin Netanyahu is alienating Israel’s best friends (Mar 18th)

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商业 | 模仿游戏 (Business | The imitation game)

生成式人工智能是一种奇迹。它也是建立在盗窃之上吗？ (Generative AI is a marvel. Is it also built on theft?)

这项奇迹般的技术面临侵犯版权的指控。 (The wonder-technology faces accusations of copyright infringement)

足球运动员乍一看很真实，但仔细观察会发现有些不对劲。他们的脸部扭曲变形，四肢向着令人震惊的方向弯曲，球稍微呈椭圆形。最奇怪的是，有一个足球运动员的左腿上跑着一个幽灵般的水印：Getty Images。

THE FOOTBALLERS look realistic at first sight but, on closer inspection, something is wrong. Their faces are contorted, their limbs are bending in alarming directions, the ball is slightly egg-shaped. Strangest of all, running across one footballer’s left leg is the ghostly trace of a watermark: Getty Images.

生成人工智能（AI）引发了新书写、音乐、图像和视频的创造爆发。互联网充斥着AI生成的内容，而市场上也充满了AI激发的投资活力。OpenAI可能制造了最先进的生成AI模型，估值接近900亿美元；其合作伙伴微软已成为市值最高的公司，市值达到3.1万亿美元。

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) has caused a creative explosion of new writing, music, images and video. The internet is alive with AI-made content, while markets fizz with AI-inspired investment. OpenAI, which makes perhaps the most advanced generative-AI models, is valued at nearly $90bn; Microsoft, its partner, has become the world’s most valuable company, with a market capitalisation of $3.1trn.

但有人怀疑AI到底有多具创造性，以及那些从中获利的人是否公平补偿了训练模型所基于的工作的创作者。OpenAI制造的ChatGPT可以被诱使记述它好像已经记住的报纸文章。Anthropic制作的聊天机器人Claude可以被迫重复热门歌曲的歌词。Stability AI的Stable Diffusion在图像中再现了Getty的水印等特征，而该AI是在Getty的档案基础上训练出来的。

But some wonder how creative the AIs really are—and whether those cashing in have fairly compensated those on whose work the models were trained. ChatGPT, made by OpenAI, can be coaxed into regurgitating newspaper articles that it appears to have memorised. Claude, a chatbot made by Anthropic, can be made to repeat lyrics from hit songs. Stable Diffusion, from Stability AI, reproduces features of images, including the watermark of Getty, on whose archive it was trained.

对于拥有这些创意作品权利的人来说，生成AI是一种侵权行为，或许也是一次机会。像疯狂一般的诉讼和交易正在进行中，权利持有者争取获得提供AI创作动力的燃料的补偿。作为模型制造者，这是一个不安的时期，伦敦国王学院法律教授丹·亨特指出：“他们已经创造了一座建立在沙土之上的惊人建筑。”

To those who hold the rights to these creative works, generative AI is an outrage—and perhaps an opportunity. A frenzy of litigation and dealmaking is under way, as rights-holders angle for compensation for providing the fuel that powers the creation of AIs. For the model-makers it is an anxious period, notes Dan Hunter, a professor of law at King’s College London. “They have created an amazing edifice that’s built on a foundation of sand.”

AI们接受大量由人类制作的作品训练，从小说到照片和歌曲。这些训练数据被分解成“标记” - 文本、图像或声音片段的数字表示，并通过试错学习标记通常如何组合。在用户提示下，受过训练的模型可以创作出自己的作品。更多和更好的训练数据意味着更好的输出。

AIs are trained on vast quantities of human-made work, from novels to photos and songs. These training data are broken down into “tokens”—numerical representations of bits of text, image or sound—and the model learns by trial and error how tokens are normally combined. Following a prompt from a user, a trained model can then make creations of its own. More and better training data means better outputs.

许多AI公司对其模型所接受的数据变得隐晦起来，引用了竞争性保密（而据其批评者怀疑，还有法律诉讼的担忧）。但普遍认为，至少在早期阶段，许多公司获取了受版权保护的数据。OpenAI的过往披露显示，其GPT-3模型是基于Common Crawl等数据源训练的，后者是对开放互联网的抓取，其中包括大量受版权保护的数据。据认为，大多数竞争对手也采取了类似的做法。

Many AI companies have become cagey about what data their models are trained on, citing competitive confidentiality (and, their detractors suspect, fear of legal action). But it is widely acknowledged that, at least in their early stages, many hoovered up data that was subject to copyright. OpenAI’s past disclosures show that its GPT-3 model was trained on sources including the Common Crawl, a scraping of the open internet which includes masses of copyrighted data. Most of its rivals are thought to have taken a similar approach.

科技公司辩称，简单地使用他人的数据来训练他们的模型并没有错。吸收受版权保护的作品，然后创作原创作品，毕竟这就是人类所做的。拥有版权的人们看到了区别。“我摄取了所有这些令人难以置信的音乐然后进行创作，”作曲家、唱片学院首席执行官哈维·梅森表示，“但不同之处在于，我是一个人类，作为一个人类，我想要保护人类…我对双重标准没有问题。”康泰纳仕首席执行官罗杰·林奇在一月份的参议院听证会上表示，今天的生成AI工具“是建立在窃来的商品之上的”。AI公司“在芯片和能源上花费了数十亿美元，但他们不愿意对内容进行类似的投资，”Getty首席执行官克雷格·彼得斯抱怨道。

The tech firms argue there is nothing wrong with using others’ data simply to train their models. Absorbing copyrighted works and then creating original ones is, after all, what humans do. Those who own the rights see a difference. “I’ve ingested all this incredible music and then I create from it,” says Harvey Mason Jr, a songwriter and chief executive of the Recording Academy, which represents musicians. “But the difference is, I’m a human, and as a human, I want to protect humans…I have no problem with a little bit of a double standard.” Roger Lynch, chief executive of Condé Nast, which owns titles such as Vogue and the New Yorker, told a Senate hearing in January that today’s generative-AI tools were “built with stolen goods”. AI companies “are spending literally billions of dollars on computer chips and energy, but they’re unwilling to put a similar investment into content”, complains Craig Peters, chief executive of Getty.

媒体公司在互联网早期曾受到重创。出版商的广告收入被搜索引擎和社交网络蚕食，唱片公司的音乐被纳斯特等应用程序非法共享。内容制作者决心不再被抓个正着。出版商（包括《经济学人》）阻止AI公司的自动“爬虫”从其网站上抓取文字：根据牛津大学路透社研究所二月份的十个国家调查，近半最受欢迎的新闻网站屏蔽了OpenAI的机器人。唱片公司已告知音乐流媒体服务停止AI公司抓取他们的音乐。人们普遍感到恼火，科技公司再次寻求宽恕而不是许可。“900亿美元的估值为律师提供了大量资金，”亨特先生说，“这就是商业计划。”

Media companies were badly burned by an earlier era of the internet. Publishers’ advertising revenue drained away to search engines and social networks. Record labels’ music was illegally shared using applications like Napster. Content-makers are determined not to be caught out again. Publishers (including The Economist) are blocking AI companies’ automated “crawlers” from scraping words from their websites: nearly half of the most popular news websites block OpenAI’s bots, according to a ten-country survey by Oxford University’s Reuters Institute in February. Record companies have told music-streaming services to stop AI companies from scraping their tunes. There is widespread irritation that tech firms are again seeking forgiveness rather than permission. “A $90bn valuation pays for a lot of lawyering,” says Mr Hunter. “That’s the business plan.”

法律行动现在正在进行。New York Times，按订户数量计算是世界上最大的报纸，正在起诉 OpenAI 和 Microsoft 侵犯了其 300 万篇文章的版权。最大的唱片公司 Universal Music Group 正在起诉 Anthropic 未经允许使用其歌词。最大的图库之一 Getty 则起诉 Stability AI 抄袭其图片（以及滥用其商标）。这四家科技公司都否认有不当行为。

The lawyering is now happening. The biggest rights-holders are leading the charge. The New York Times, the world’s largest newspaper by number of subscribers, is suing OpenAI and Microsoft for infringing the copyright of 3m of its articles. Universal Music Group, the largest record company, is suing Anthropic for using its song lyrics without permission. Getty, one of the biggest image libraries, is suing Stability AI for copying its images (as well as misusing its trademark). All four tech firms deny wrongdoing.

在美国，模型制造商依赖公平使用的法律概念，这为其提供了对该国其他激烈版权法的广泛豁免。2015 年关于谷歌图书馆的裁决提供了一个鼓舞人心的先例。作者协会起诉搜索巨头谷歌未经许可扫描受版权保护的图书。但法庭裁定谷歌使用这些材料——使图书可搜索，但仅显示小节的内容——足够“具有变革性”，被认为是公平使用。生成式 AI 公司主张他们对受版权保护的材料的使用同样具有变革性。而版权持有者则寄希望于去年最高法院对一系列安迪·沃霍尔的艺术作品作出的裁决，这些作品是对流行巨星 Prince 的受版权照片进行改编的，判定这些作品变革不够，不构成公平使用。

In America the model-makers are relying on the legal concept of fair use, which provides broad exemptions from the country’s otherwise ferocious copyright laws. An encouraging precedent comes courtesy of a ruling on Google Books in 2015. The Authors Guild sued the search giant for scanning copyrighted books without permission. But a court found that Google’s use of the material—making books searchable, but showing only small extracts—was sufficiently “transformative” to be deemed fair use. Generative-AI firms argue that their use of copyrighted material is similarly transformative. Rights-holders, meanwhile, are pinning their hopes on a Supreme Court judgment last year that a series of artworks by Andy Warhol, which had altered a copyrighted photograph of Prince, a pop star, were insufficiently transformative to constitute fair use.

Abstract composition featuring a prominent copyright symbol positioned in the center.

在美国，并非所有媒体类型都享有同等保护。版权法涵盖创意表达，而非观念或信息。例如，亚特兰大埃默里大学的马修·萨格表示，计算机代码只受到薄薄的保护，因为它主要是功能性的而非表现性的。（一群程序员旨在通过法院测试此事实，声称微软的 GitHub Copilot 和 OpenAI 的 CodexComputer 通过基于其工作进行训练侵犯了他们的版权。）新闻同样难以保护：新闻爆料中的信息本身并不能受到版权保护。记者和作家杰夫·贾维斯指出，直到 1909 年前，美国的报纸根本不受版权保护，许多报社曾聘请“剪贴编辑”，从竞争对手的报纸上直接剪切粘贴。

Not all media types enjoy equal protection. Copyright law covers creative expression, not ideas or information. Computer code, for example, is only thinly protected, since it is mostly functional rather than expressive, says Matthew Sag of Emory University in Atlanta. (A group of programmers aim to test this in court, claiming that Microsoft’s GitHub Copilot and OpenAI’s CodexComputer infringed their copyright by training on their work.) News can likewise be tricky to protect: the information within a scoop cannot itself be copyrighted. Newspapers in America were not covered by copyright at all until 1909, notes Jeff Jarvis, a journalist and author. Before then, many employed a “scissors editor” to literally cut and paste from rival titles.

图片版权持有者受到更好的保护。AI 模型难以避免学习如何绘制可受版权保护的人物角色——萨格先生称之为“史努比问题”，指的是卡通狗狗史努比。模型制造商可以通过阻止特定提示来阻止他们的 AI 绘制侵权图片，但通常失败。经济学人的引导下，基于 OpenAI 的 Dall-E 的微软图像生成器高兴地绘制了“美国队长抽烟万宝路”和“小美人鱼喝健力士”的图片，尽管缺乏相关品牌的明确许可。（艺术家和机构可以通过在线表格报告任何顾虑，一位微软发言人表示。）音乐人在版权方面也站得相对坚实：美国的音乐版权受到严格执行，艺术家甚至在使用简短采样时也需要许可证。也许因此，许多 AI 公司在发布音乐制作模型时都比较谨慎。

Image-rights holders are better protected. AI models struggle to avoid learning how to draw copyrightable characters—the “Snoopy problem”, as Mr Sag calls it, referring to the cartoon beagle. Model-makers can try to stop their AIs drawing infringing images by blocking certain prompts, but they often fail. At The Economist’s prompting, Microsoft’s image creator, based on OpenAI’s Dall-E, happily drew images of “Captain America smoking a Marlboro” and “The Little Mermaid drinking Guinness”, despite lacking express permission from the brands in question. (Artists and organisations can report any concerns via an online form, says a Microsoft spokesman.) Musicians are also on relatively strong ground: music copyright in America is strictly enforced, with artists requiring licences even for short samples. Perhaps for this reason, many AI companies have been cautious in releasing their music-making models.

在美国以外，对于科技公司而言，法律环境大多更为严苛。欧盟是 Mistral 的所在地，一家炙手可热的法国人工智能公司，对于数据挖掘有一定的版权例外，但没有广泛的公平使用辩护。在英国也是如此，Getty 对位于伦敦的 Stability AI 提起了诉讼（后者原本希望在美国打官司）。一些司法管辖区提供更安全的避风港。例如，以色列和日本的版权法友善于 AI 训练。

Outside America, the legal climate is mostly harsher for tech firms. The European Union, home to Mistral, a hot French AI company, has a limited copyright exception for data-mining, but no broad fair-use defence. Much the same is true in Britain, where Getty has brought its case against Stability AI, which is based in London (and had hoped to fight the lawsuit in America). Some jurisdictions offer safer havens. Israel and Japan, for instance, have copyright laws that are friendly for AI training.

科技公司暗示，如果美国法院采取强硬立场，可能会对美国企业构成潜在威胁。OpenAI 对其与 New York Times 的争议表示，其对受版权保护的训练数据的使用对于美国的竞争力“至关重要”。

Tech companies hint at the potential threat to American business, should the country’s courts take a tough line. OpenAI says of its dispute with the New York Times that its use of copyrighted training data is “critical for US competitiveness”.

版权持有者对于要求美国降低保护水平以保留科技企业持反感；其中一位将其描述为不符合美国精神。但这也是为什么大案件最终可能会偏向 AI 公司的原因之一。萨格先生表示，法院可能会裁定模型不应该接受某些数据的训练，或者它们记忆了太多，“但我不相信任何美国法院会否定大公平使用的论点。部分原因是我认为这是一个很好的论点。另一部分原因是，如果他们这样做，我们只会把一个伟大的美国产业送到以色列、日本或欧盟去。”

Rights-holders bridle at the notion that America should reduce its protections to the level of other jurisdictions just to keep the tech business around; one describes it as unAmerican. But it is a reason why the big cases may end up being decided in favour of the AI firms. Courts may rule that models should not have trained on certain data, or that they committed too much to memory, says Mr Sag. “But I don’t believe any US court is going to reject the big fair-use argument. Partly because I think it’s a good argument. And partly because, if they do, we’re just sending a great American industry to Israel or Japan or the EU.”

当律师们准备充分以备辩护时，交易正在进行中。在某些情况下，起诉被用作筹码。“诉讼是通过其他方式进行谈判，”承认某个案件的一方。即使接受过训练，人工智能也需要持续接触人类制作的内容以保持最新状态，一些权利持有者已经达成交易，以确保它们能够持续提供新鲜的材料给人工智能。OpenAI表示已经达成大约十几项许可协议，还有“更多”的正在进行中。迄今为止的合作伙伴包括美联社、Bild 和 Politico 的所有者阿克塞尔·斯普林格、《世界报》和西班牙的普里萨传媒。

While the lawyers sharpen their arguments, deals are being done. In some cases, suing is being used as leverage. “Lawsuits are negotiation by other means,” admits a party to one case. Even once trained, AIs need ongoing access to human-made content to stay up-to-date, and some rights-holders have done deals to keep them supplied with fresh material. OpenAI says it has sealed about a dozen licensing deals, with “many more” in the works. Partners so far include the Associated Press, Axel Springer (owner of Bild and Politico), Le Monde and Spain’s Prisa Media.

拥有《华尔街日报》和《太阳报》等其他报纸的新闻集团（News Corp）在二月份表示正在与未透露的科技公司进行“高级谈判”。“求爱胜于法庭 —— 我们正在追求，而不是起诉，”其首席执行官罗伯特·汤普森（Robert Thompson）表示，并称赞了OpenAI的老板萨姆·奥尔特曼（Sam Altman）。照片库Shutterstock已经许可其档案给OpenAI和社交媒体帝国Meta，后者正在投入资源到人工智能。据报道，Reddit 和 Tumblr 这两个在线论坛也正在向人工智能公司许可其内容。（我们的母公司《经济学人集团》尚未就是否会许可我们的作品发表公开立场。）

News Corp, which owns the Wall Street Journal and Sun among other titles, said in February it was in “advanced negotiations” with unnamed tech firms. “Courtship is preferable to courtrooms—we are wooing, not suing,” said its chief executive, Robert Thompson, who praised Sam Altman, OpenAI’s boss. Shutterstock, a photo library, has licensed its archive to both OpenAI and Meta, the social-media empire that is pouring resources into AI. Reddit and Tumblr, two online forums, are reportedly licensing their content to AI firms as well. (The Economist Group, our parent company, has not taken a public position on whether it will license our work.)

大多数权利持有者私下里持消极态度。路透社研究所对56个国家的媒体高管进行的一项调查发现，48%的人预计AI许可交易中将获得“非常少”的资金。即使是最大的出版商也没能赚大钱。阿克塞尔·斯普林格去年的收入达到了39亿欧元（41亿美元），据报道，它将通过与OpenAI达成的为期三年的协议获得“数千万欧元”。

Most rights-holders are privately pessimistic. A survey of media executives in 56 countries by the Reuters Institute found that 48% expected there to be “very little” money from AI licensing deals. Even the biggest publishers have not made a fortune. Axel Springer, which had revenue of €3.9bn ($4.1bn) in 2022, will reportedly earn “tens of millions of euros” from its three-year deal with OpenAI.

“这并不是一个很大的许可机会。我认为[AI模型]的目标并不是提供新闻的替代品，”媒体研究公司Enders Analysis的爱丽丝·恩德斯（Alice Enders）表示。Mr.Peters表示，目前提供的许可协议“很微弱”。当公司表示，“我们不需要许可这些内容，我们有完全的刮取权利”时，我认为这确实减弱了它们走到一起协商公平经济的动机。

“There is not a big licensing opportunity. I don’t think the aim of [the AI models] is to provide alternatives to news,” says Alice Enders of Enders Analysis, a media-research firm. The licensing deals on offer are “anaemic”, says Mr Peters of Getty. “When companies are…saying, ‘We don’t need to license this content, we have full rights to scrape it,’ I think it definitely diminishes their motivations to come together and negotiate fair economics.”

因此，一些拥有版权材料的所有者正在单打独斗。去年，盖蒂（Getty）与芯片制造商英伟达（Nvidia）合作推出了自己的生成式人工智能。盖蒂的造像师只接受过盖蒂自己的图书馆训练，公司承诺这是“商业安全”和“无忧”。今年，该公司计划推出一个由英伟达和另一家人工智能公司Runway支持的视频制作工具。除了消除版权风险，盖蒂还清除了可能会让其客户陷入知识产权律师纠纷的其他内容：品牌、名人以及从纹身设计到烟火表演等不那么明显的内容。公司承认，到目前为止只有少数盖蒂的订阅者尝试过这些工具。但Peters希望，服务的持续收入最终将超过许可协议的“一次性版税风暴”。

Some owners of copyrighted material are therefore going it alone. Last year Getty launched its own generative AI, in partnership with Nvidia, a chipmaker. Getty’s image-maker has been trained only on Getty’s own library, making it “commercially safe” and “worry-free”, the company promises. It plans to launch a video-maker this year, powered by Nvidia and Runway, another AI firm. As well as removing copyright risk, Getty has weeded out anything else that could get its customers in trouble with IP lawyers: brands, personalities and less obvious things, from tattoo designs to firework displays. Only a small percentage of Getty’s subscribers have tried out the tools so far, the firm admits. But Mr Peters hopes that recurring revenue from the service will eventually exceed the “one-time royalty windfall” of a licensing deal.

许多新闻出版商也得出了类似的结论。彭博去年表示已经对其专有数据和文本进行了人工智能训练。挪威的大型出版商施比斯泰德（Schibsted）正在带头努力创建一个挪威语模型，利用其自身的内容以及其他媒体公司的内容。其他人已经建立了聊天机器人。上个月，《金融时报》推出了Ask FT，允许读者查询该报的存档。《旧金山纪事报》在二月份推出的Chowbot让读者可以根据该报的餐馆评论寻找该城市最好的玉米煮或蛤蛎浓汤。英国广播公司上个月表示正在探索开发围绕其100年档案的人工智能工具“合作或单方面展开”。大多数大型出版物，包括《经济学人》，都在幕后进行实验。

A number of news publishers have reached a similar conclusion. Bloomberg said last year that it had trained an AI on its proprietary data and text. Schibsted, a big Norwegian publisher, is leading an effort to create a Norwegian-language model, using its content and that of other media companies. Others have set up chatbots. Last month the Financial Times unveiled Ask FT, which lets readers interrogate the paper’s archive. The San Francisco Chronicle’s Chowbot, launched in February, lets readers seek out the city’s best tacos or clam chowder, based on the paper’s restaurant reviews. The BBC said last month that it was exploring developing AI tools around its 100-year archive “in partnership or unilaterally”. Most big publications, including The Economist, are experimenting behind the scenes.

目前尚不清楚观众是否会接受这种格式。专门的人工智能工具也可能难以与最优秀的通用模型竞争。据加拿大皇后大学和摩根大通银行去年发布的一篇论文称，OpenAI的ChatGPT在金融特定任务上甚至胜过彭博的人工智能。但康奈尔大学的詹姆斯·格雷默尔曼指出，将内容授权给科技公司也存在风险。权利持有者“必须认真考虑这种训练它们的替代品的程度”。

It is too early to say if audiences will take to such formats. Specialised AI tools may also find it difficult to compete with the best generalist models. OpenAI’s ChatGPT outperforms Bloomberg’s AI even on finance-specific tasks, according to a paper last year by researchers at Queen’s University, in Canada, and JPMorgan Chase, a bank. But licensing content to tech firms has its own risks, points out James Grimmelmann of Cornell University. Rights-holders “have to be thinking very hard about the degree to which this is being used to train their replacements”.

AI引发的新问题可能导致新的法律出台。格雷默尔曼表示，“我们正在尽最大努力调整现有法律以适应这一情况。”上个月，田纳西州通过了确保肖像、声音和形象安全（ELVIS）法案，禁止在该州未经授权的 深度伪造。但国会似乎更有可能让法庭解决。一些欧洲政治家希望加强法律以支持权利持有者；欧盟在2019年通过了数字版权指令，当时生成式人工智能还不存在。“欧洲不可能今天通过[此类指令]，”Sag先生表示。

The new questions raised by AI may lead to new laws. “We’re stretching current laws about as far as they can go to adapt to this,” says Mr Grimmelmann. Last month Tennessee passed the Ensuring Likeness Voice and Image Security (ELVIS) Act, banning unauthorised deepfakes in the state. But Congress seems more likely to let the courts sort it out. Some European politicians want to tighten up the law in favour of rights-holders; the eu’s directive on digital copyright was passed in 2019, when generative AI was not a thing. “There is no way the Europeans would pass [such a directive] today,” says Mr Sag.

另一个问题是，版权是否会延伸到由人工智能创作的内容。到目前为止，法官们认为由人工智能创作的作品不适用版权。今年八月，一家美国联邦法院裁定，“人类创作者是版权的基本要求”，驳回了一位计算机科学家要求对他使用人工智能创作的艺术作品进行版权保护的申请。随着人工智能创作出越来越多的内容，这种情况可能会改变。法院花了几十年的时间才承认，拍摄照片的人可以主张对照片的版权。

Another question is whether copyright will extend to AI-made content. So far judges have been of the view that works created by AI are not copyrightable. In August an American federal court ruled that “human authorship is a bedrock requirement of copyright”, dismissing a request by a computer scientist to copyright a work of art he had created using AI. This may change as AIs create a growing share of the world’s content. It took several decades of photography for courts to recognise that the person who took a picture could claim copyright over the image.

当前情况让人想起本世纪早些时候的另一起法律案例。一位野生动物摄影师试图主张对由猕猴自拍的照片拥有版权，这些照片是猴子们利用他在印尼丛林设置的相机自拍的。法官裁定，因为申诉人并没有亲自拍摄这些照片，所以没有人拥有版权。（一家动物权利组织提出将版权授予猴子的请愿被驳回。）国王学院的亨特表示，生成式人工智能承诺填充世界各地缺乏人类创作者和因此没有版权保护的内容，“我们即将进入无限猴子自拍时代。” ■

The current moment recalls a different legal case earlier this century. A wildlife photographer tried to claim copyright over photographs that macaque monkeys had taken of themselves, using a camera he had set up in an Indonesian jungle. A judge ruled that because the claimant had not taken the photos himself, no one owned the copyright. (A petition by an animal-rights group to grant the right to the monkeys was dismissed.) Generative AI promises to fill the world with content that lacks a human author, and therefore has no copyright protection, says Mr Hunter of King’s College. “We’re about to move into the infinite-monkey-selfie era.” ■

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商业 | 是哪只小狗穿着羊绒 (Business | Pups in cashmere)

谁将领导LVMH奢侈帝国? (Who will lead the LVMH luxury empire?)

伯纳德·阿诺预测他的接班人 (Bernard Arnault sizes up his heirs apparent)

伯纳德·阿尔诺喜欢将LVMH描述为une affaire de famille。这位世界上最富有的人称其为4000亿欧元（4250亿美元）的奢侈品帝国，他是首席执行官、董事长和控股股东，“一个家庭企业”既是一种虚伪谦逊又是事实。他的五个孩子都为他工作。在4月18日的LVMH年度股东大会上，阿尔诺将的两位儿子（亚历山大和弗雷德里克）有望加入董事会，他们将与阿尔诺第一次婚姻的长子女德尔芬和安托万一起。只有26岁的最小的让，目前还没有董事席位（但可能会有）。

BERNARD ARNAULT likes to describe LVMH as une affaire de famille. The world’s richest man calling the €400bn ($425bn) luxury empire, of which he is chief executive, chairman and controlling shareholder, “a family business” is both a humblebrag and true. All five of his children work for him. And at LVMH’s annual general meeting on April 18th, after we published this, two of his sons (Alexandre and Frédéric) are poised to join Delphine and Antoine, his eldest offspring from his first marriage, on its board. Only 26-year-old Jean, the youngest, does not have a board seat (yet).

阿尔诺·père可以再担任LVMH五年。在2022年，股东们相信当时73岁的他为他们和自己创造了财富（见图表），乐意修改公司的章程，将CEO的强制退休年龄从75岁提高到80岁。作为一个被称为羊绒外表下的狼，这位亿万富翁凭借他具有杀手般的交易本能，展现了不退缩的迹象。但董事会的重组和最近的其他职位变动表明，他对其狼群的继任计划已经有条不紊。

Arnault père can head LVMH for another five years. In 2022 shareholders, who credited the then-73-year-old with minting their fortunes as well as his own (see chart), happily amended the company’s by-laws to raise the mandatory retirement age for the CEO from 75 to 80. The wolf in cashmere, as the billionaire is known thanks to his killer dealmaking instincts, is showing no signs of letting up. But the boardroom reshuffle and other recent job moves suggest the succession plans for his lupine litter are well under way.

去年，德尔芬接任了标志性时尚品牌克里斯汀·迪奥的负责人，该品牌是LVMH第二大品牌（在彼特罗·比卡里领导下声名远播，他在五年内使销售额增长了四倍，最近被任命为该集团的皇冠珠宝品牌路易·威登的负责人）。安托万现在是控股LVMH的家族控股公司的首席执行官。亚历山大是蒂凡尼和公司的实际第二号人物，一个珠宝商。弗雷德里克和让在该集团的手表业务中担任高级职位。

Last year Delphine took over as head of Christian Dior, the iconic fashion house which is LVMH’s second-largest brand (and which had a sparkling run under Pietro Beccari, who quadrupled sales in five years and was recently put in charge of Louis Vuitton, the group’s crown jewel). Antoine is now chief executive of the family holding company which controls LVMH. Alexandre is the de facto number-two at Tiffany & Co, a jeweller. Frédéric and Jean have senior roles in the group’s watch business.

法国汇丰银行的埃尔万·兰保尔看到了三种可能的接班方案。一种是49岁的德尔芬，自2000年以来在迪奥和 Vuitton 工作，并逐步升至最高职位，从她父亲那里继承最高职位。另一种可能是31岁的亚历山大登基，他在力士添旺的老板表现出色，他说服父亲收购了这家德国行李箱制造商。现在他通过与比约兹、美国流行音乐偶像和Jay-Z、饶舌歌手等超级巨星合作，使蒂凡尼重新焕发活力，振兴其过时的形象。第三种可能是一种同事之间的方法，五个子女分别管理集团的五个部门。

Erwan Rambourg of hSBC, a bank, sees three possible succession scenarios. One is for the 49-year-old Delphine, who since 2000 has worked her way up through Dior and Vuitton, to inherit the top job from her father. Another is the enthronement of 31-year-old Alexandre, who did well as boss of Rimowa, a German luggage-maker that he persuaded his father to buy. He is now jazzing up Tiffany’s old-fashioned image through collaborations with superstars such as Beyoncé, an American pop icon, and Jay-Z, a rapper. The third is a collegial approach in which the five scions run five divisions of the group.

如果阿尔诺已经下定决心，他会将决定保密。无论哪种方式，他将交出一个令人羡慕的企业。诚然，在2023年取得辉煌成绩之后，销售额增长了9%，但在2024年第一季度，收入同比下降了2%，至210亿欧元，这主要是因为中国消费者对本国经济状况感到担忧，需求有所减弱。今年1月，阿尔诺通过谈论“正常化”来预示放缓，表明疫情后的报复性购物热潮已结束。

If Mr Arnault has made up his mind, he is keeping his decision to himself. Either way, he will hand over an enviable business. True, after a stellar 2023, when sales rose by 9%, revenues in the first quarter of 2024 did dip by 2% year on year, to €21bn, chiefly owing to softening demand from Chinese shoppers worried about their country’s economy. In January Mr Arnault foreshadowed the slowdown by talking of “normalisation” following a period of post-pandemic revenge shopping for bling.

这一季度的失望可能只是一个小插曲。阿尔诺的新常态仍然可能表现出健康的迹象。财富管理公司gAM的弗拉维奥·塞雷达预计全球奢侈品销售在未来几年将以每年6-7%的速度增长，并且LVMH将继续获得市场份额。这是一个整洁的遗产，无论哪位阿尔诺 fils或 fille 胜出。 ■

This first-quarter disappointment may, though, prove to be a blip. And Mr Arnault’s new normal could still mean rude health. Flavio Cereda of gAM, an asset manager, expects global luxury sales to expand by 6-7% annually in the next few years—and LVMH to keep gaining market share. A tidy inheritance, for whichever Arnault fils or fille prevails. ■

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商业 | 巴特尔比 (Business | Bartleby)

唤醒斯克拉布的教训 (The lessons of woke Scrabble)

当传统遇上创新。 (When heritage meets innovation)

4月9日，《每日邮报》网站的标题嘲笑称“THICK” ，以回应“文字游戏”Scrabble进行了全面改革的消息。在世界上一些地方，这款文字游戏已经重新推出了一款双面棋盘；现在的这个棋盘的一面展示了一种新的、更简单的设计，意在比原先更少让人感到威胁，更加包容。

“THICK”, scoffed the headline on the Daily Mail website on April 9th, in response to the news that Scrabble has had an overhaul. In some parts of the world the word-play game has been relaunched with a double-sided board; one side now shows a new, simpler design that is meant to be less intimidating and more inclusive than the original.

认为Scrabble需要变得不那么竞争，从而吸引Z世代，这一想法肯定会让某些人感到恼火。有一位典型的平衡读者评论写道：“接下来，他们会转向国际象棋，但每人只有一个棋子，棋盘上只有两个方格。” 忽略有关“snowflakes”（细心者）和觉醒运动的抱怨，Mattel在北美以外推出的这个游戏新版本看起来是一个解决常见战略问题的完全有效的方案：如何对备受喜爱的产品进行改动。

The idea that Scrabble needs to be made less competitive in order to be attractive to Gen Z was always going to make some people rather vexed (16 points). “Next, they’ll turn to chess, but with only one piece each and only two squares on the board,” ran one typically balanced reader comment. Rants about snowflakes and wokeness aside, the new version of the game, which Mattel is introducing outside North America, looks like a perfectly good solution to a common strategic problem: how to make changes to much-loved products.

大量创新研究都聚焦在管理者需要依靠多样化思维来源的需求。如果你对一群老面孔寻求新点子，就会限制突破的机会。以有关美国政治家的法庭裁决、财报电话会议和演讲的观点为例，斯坦福大学的保罗·维钱扎和合著者最近发表的一篇论文分析了明智观念的出现。研究发现，这类观念往往来自边缘。但根深蒂固的思维陷阱也适用于顾客。如果购买你产品和服务的顾客认为它们传统，他们就更有可能抵制变化。

Reams of innovation research focus on the need for managers to draw on diverse sources of thinking. The more you rely on a group of the same old faces for new ideas, the more you constrain the chances of breakthroughs. To take one example among many, a recent paper by Paul Vicinanza of Stanford University and his co-authors analysed the emergence of prescient ideas in court rulings, earnings calls and speeches by American politicians. It found that such ideas tended to come from the periphery. But the perils of entrenched thinking can also apply to customers. If the people who buy your products and services view them as traditional, they are more likely to resist changes.

对于历史悠久、拥有忠实粉丝的品牌来说，这种抵制显而易见。消费者喜欢长期稳定的概念。在巴塞罗那TBS商学院的法比安·佩科特和其他研究人员的研究中，作者向人们展示了一个陌生巧克力公司的两个商标，一个采用老式字体，配有一幅黑白建筑照片，另一个采用更现代的字体，搭配一张当代办公室图片。与传统公司的标志支付更多，表示愿意为这种含金量高的品牌多花钱。

Such resistance is most obvious for brands with a long heritage and a loyal following. Consumers like the notion of longevity. In a study by Fabien Pecot of TBS Business School Barcelona and fellow researchers, the authors showed people two logos for an unfamiliar chocolate company, one with an old-school font and a black-and-white photo of a building, the other with a more modern font and a picture of a contemporary office. Participants were willing to pay more for the brand that had apparently been around for aeons (five points but really handy if you have a lot of vowels).

但丰富的历史—即使是完全虚构的—也使改变变得更加困难。新加坡管理大学的韩敏珠和合著者进行的另一项研究中，人们被告知关于一个虚构化妆品公司的信息。部分人听说它成立于1917年，其他人则听说它成立在100年后。然后，每组人都测试了两款手霜，一款据称是按原始配方制作的，另一款是新开发的产品。即使在每个情况中霜都是一样的，认为公司成立于20世纪早期的人认为新产品比原产品差；而认为公司是最近成立的人给出了一样的评价。传统可以带来溢价，但也可能成为一种囚笼。

But a rich history—even an entirely fictional one—also makes it harder to make changes. In another study, by Minju Han of Singapore Management University and her co-authors, people were told about a made-up cosmetics company. Some heard it had been founded in 1917, others that it had been established 100 years later. Each group then tested two hand creams, one ostensibly made to the original formula and the other a newly developed product. Even though the cream was the same in every instance, people who thought the firm had been founded in the early 20th century rated the new product as inferior to the original; those who thought it had been established recently gave them the same ratings. Heritage can command a premium but it can also be a prison.

这些权衡也在威尼斯大学卡·福斯卡里大学的朱莉娅·坎切里埃和纽约大学的基诺·卡塔尼，以及博洛尼亚大学的西蒙·费里亚尼的一篇论文中可见，该论文审视了意大利歌剧院制片人的编程决策。这些文化机构的负责人必须在尊重传统典范与推出原创制作之间取得平衡；在管理术语中，他们必须在忠于他们的“qi”（这不是正确的单词，但它给了你11点，并且消除了那个落单的“q”）的同时进行创新。

These trade-offs are also visible in a paper by Giulia Cancellieri of Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Gino Cattani of New York University and Simone Ferriani of the University of Bologna, which looks at the programming decisions made by Italian opera houses. Directors of such cultural institutions have to balance respect for the traditional canon with a desire to put on original productions; in management terms, they have to innovate while being true to their qi (which is not the right word but does give you 11 points and gets rid of that stranded “q”).

研究人员特别考察了经典歌剧改编对观众数量的影响。根据改编的程度，他们将这些变化分为更为表面的（例如，“波西米亚人生”剧情不变，但发生在Dunkin’ Donuts店）和更为激进的（比如说，Mimi的手非常温暖）。他们发现歌剧观众喜欢新奇感，但他们对改变的程度有不同反应：更熟悉经典作品的季票持有人对激进变革较不宽容，而单次购票的访客更喜欢这种变化。进行创新的自由在一定程度上取决于你对忠实重复客户的依赖程度。

The researchers examined in particular how attendance was affected by reinterpretations of classic operas. They categorise these changes depending on whether they are more cosmetic (the plot of “La Bohème” remains unchanged, for example, but takes place in a Dunkin’ Donuts) or more radical (Mimi has incredibly warm hands, say). They find that opera-goers liked novelty but that they reacted differently depending on its extent: season-ticket holders, who were more familiar with the classics, were less tolerant of radical changes whereas single-ticket visitors were keener on them. Freedom to innovate depends in part on how much you depend on loyal, repeat customers.

鉴于所有这些陷阱，Mattel的创新效果不错。它允许传统玩家继续玩他们一直在使用的游戏，同时也允许一项试验，可能吸引新玩家。尽管有吵闹声和怒火，但这一切都相当优雅（这给你一个bingo，58分和全面、毁灭性的胜利）。

Given all these pitfalls, Mattel’s innovation works well. It allows traditionalists to play the game they grew up with while also permitting an experiment that might bring in new players. Despite the sound and fury, it is all rather elegant (which gives you a bingo, 58 points and total, annihilating victory). ■

Read more from Bartleby, our columnist on management and work:Productivity gurus through time: a match-up (Apr 11th)The six rules of fire drills (Apr 4th)The pros and cons of corporate uniforms (Mar 27th)

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商业 | 护理行业的激烈竞争 (Business | The health-care horserace)

美国针对中国生物技术及其本国制药商 (America hits Chinese biotech—and its own drugmakers)

国会中的一项全面法案可能让国内患者付出代价。 (A sweeping bill in Congress could cost patients at home)

美国的卫生保健费用高得离谱；随着治疗费用不断上涨，由于人口老龄化而需求激增，这些费用还在增长。中国的生物技术越来越精湛，并且随着公司规模的扩大，变得更加便宜。越来越多的美国药企，从初创公司到大型制药公司，都依赖于无锡药明生物科技（WuXi AppTec）和无锡生物制药（WuXi Biologics）这类公司，它们代表客户进行药物研究并生产用于药物制造的化合物。使用基因测序机的MGI Tech为美国医院提供了更便宜且运行成本仅为美国制造替代品的一半的试剂盒。这是天作之合吗？

AMERICAN HEALTH-CARE costs are sky-high; as treatments get pricier and the number of patients swells owing to an ageing population, they are getting higher. Chinese biotechnology is increasingly sophisticated and, as its companies gain scale, getting cheaper. A growing number of American drugmakers, from startups to big pharma, rely on firms like WuXi AppTec and WuXi Biologics, which conduct drug research on behalf of clients and manufacture compounds used in drugmaking. MGI Tech, a maker of gene-sequencing machines, is offering American hospitals kit that is cheaper to buy and half as expensive to run as American-made alternatives. A match made in heaven?

但美国国会并不这么认为。目前参议院正在审议一项法案，该法案将禁止联邦政府从与无锡姐妹公司和MGI Tech等合作伙伴有业务往来的公司购买医疗保健产品。众议院的一个跨党派立法者小组正在推动BIOSECURE法案，该法案将实施类似的措施。

Not to America’s Congress. A bill currently before the Senate would forbid the federal government from buying health-care products from companies that do business with partners like the WuXi sister firms and MGI Tech. A bipartisan group of lawmakers in the House of Representatives is pushing for the BIOSECURE act, which would do much the same.

政客们担心美国的健康数据落入中国当局手中。他们还担忧美国的知识产权（IP），比如大型制药公司与合同制造商分享的药物配方，可能流向中国竞争对手。他们还担心美国的资金流向与中国人民解放军（PLA）及中国政府对维吾尔族（一种少数民族）的镇压合作的中国公司。如果法案的发起者成功，美国的患者可能最终将承担部分费用。

The politicians worry about American health data falling into the hands of the Chinese authorities. They also fret about American intellectual property (IP), for example in the form of drug recipes that big pharma shares with contract manufacturers, flowing to Chinese rivals. And they are concerned about American money going to Chinese firms that collaborate with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and with the Chinese government’s repression of Uyghurs, an ethnic minority. Should the bills’ sponsors succeed, America’s patients may be left bearing some of the costs.

尽管在大多数其他问题上存在不可调和的分歧，但民主党和共和党在对中国的不满上是一致的。上个月，这项立法的参议院版本以11票对1票的结果通过了相关委员会。投资者似乎相信这项立法有望成为法律。自BIOSECURE法案于一月底在众议院提出以来，无锡药明生物科技的股价已下跌了40%（见图表）。销售额的三分之二来自美国的WuXi Biologics已经贬值超过50%。MGI Tech已经贬值超过三分之一。这三家公司从两个半月前开始已经共计损失了220亿美元的市值。

Despite irreconcilable differences on most other subjects, Democrats and Republicans are united in their dislike of China. Last month the Senate version of the legislation cleared the relevant committee by 11 votes to one. Investors seem to believe it has a good chance of becoming law. The share price of WuXi AppTec, which generates two-thirds of its revenues in America, has fallen by 40% since the BIOSECURE bill was introduced in the House in late January (see chart). WuXi Biologics, half of whose sales come from American customers, has lost more than 50% of its value. MGI Tech has lost more than a third. The three companies, which the House bill name-checks, have shed a combined $22bn in market capitalisation in the past two and a half months.

对于这些中国公司的美国客户而言，连锁反应也可能是深远的。先从合同制造商兼研究机构开始。对于大型制药公司来说，无锡就像台湾iPhone组装商富士康对苹果一样，是一家可信赖的高质量供应商，负责保密的知识产权。无锡表示，其客户包括全球最大的20家制药公司。数十家美国制药公司已经通知投资者，如果BIOSECURE法案通过，他们可能无法满足产品需求或按计划完成临床试验。无锡药明生物科技表示，该立法案“依赖于误导性指控和不准确的断言”。无锡生物制药则表示，“无锡未曾、目前也不会对美国或其他任何国家构成任何国家安全风险”。

The knock-on effects for the Chinese firms’ American customers are also likely to be profound. Start with the contract manufacturer-researchers. WuXi is to big pharma what Foxconn, the Taiwanese assembler of iPhones, is to Apple—a high-quality supplier entrusted with sensitive IP. It says its clients include the world’s 20 biggest drugmakers. Dozens of American pharma firms have notified investors that, should the BIOSECURE bill pass, they may be unable to meet demand for their products or to complete clinical trials on schedule. WuXi AppTec says that the proposed legislation “relies on misleading allegations and inaccurate assertions”. WuXi Biologics says it “has not, does not and will not pose any national-security risk to the US or any other country”.

生物技术合作伙伴关系专业律师Lila Hope表示，西方客户尚未与无锡公司断绝关系。一些制药公司据称正在寻找来自印度的替代供应商，印度是提供类似服务的主要提供国。但这将需要得到长期对印度公司的质量标准放松存在顾虑的美国监管机构的批准。

Western customers have not yet severed ties with the WuXi companies, says Lila Hope, a lawyer specialising in biotech partnerships at Cooley. Some drugmakers are reportedly sounding out alternative suppliers from India, a big provider of similar services. But that would require a thumbs-up from American regulators, who have longstanding concerns about Indian companies’ lax quality standards.

投资银行Jefferies认为，取代中国产能将使大型西方制药公司至少需要五年时间，并几乎肯定会导致成本上升。对于生物技术初创公司而言，他们倾向于依靠拥有良好记录的中国合作伙伴，以节省时间和研究及制造开支，因此BIOSECURE法案可能构成一种生存威胁。根据咨询公司BioCentury三月开展的一项调查，生物技术公司的老板和投资者预计，如果该法案通过，药物研发将会减速。

Jefferies, an investment bank, reckons that replacing Chinese capacity would take big Western drug firms at least five years and almost certainly end up costing more. For biotech startups, which tend to rely on Chinese partners with proven records to save time and money on research and manufacturing, the BIOSECURE bill could be an existential threat. According to a survey conducted in March by BioCentury, a consultancy, biotech bosses and their investors expect a slowdown in drug development in the event of its passage.

切断政客们第二个目标——中国基因组学产业——将对美国公司产生较小的立即影响。MGI Tech刚刚进入美国基因测序仪市场，在2022年与其更大的美国竞争对手Illumina 达成专利纠纷和解。比起其他公司，BGI Genomics，一个中国公司，产生的利润中仅有3%来自美国。但这两家中国公司都为高度集中的行业带来了受欢迎的竞争。尽管在2019年被反托拉斯局阻止收购竞争对手，Illumina 仍然掌握着高端基因测序仪全球市场的80%。

Cutting ties with the lawmakers’ second target—China’s genomics industry—would have a less immediate impact on American firms. MGI Tech is only just entering the American market for gene-sequencers, having settled a patent dispute with its bigger American rival, Illumina, in 2022. BGI Genomics, which sequences more human genomes than any other company (and is also named in the BIOSECURE bill), makes just 3% of its profits in America. But both Chinese firms bring welcome competition to a highly concentrated industry. Despite being blocked by trustbusters from acquiring a rival in 2019, Illumina has 80% of the global market for high-end gene-sequencers.

MGI Tech的美国子公司Complete Genomics表示“并非测序服务提供商，也无法访问、收集或保存基因数据”。该公司请来独立调查人员检查其测序仪，证实公司无法通过设备访问患者数据。BGI Group表示，《生物保障法案》对其提出的指控均属“虚假”，该公司无意搜集、储存或分析个人基因信息，更无意侵犯人权、支持对少数族裔的监视，也不受中国政府或解放军控制。

MGI Tech’s American subsidiary, Complete Genomics, says it “is not a sequencing-service provider and does not have access to, collect, or maintain genetic data”. Independent investigators it brought in to inspect its sequencers have confirmed that the company cannot access patient data through the devices. BGI Group says that the allegations made in the BIOSECURE bill that it collects, stores and analyses personal genetic information for the purpose of infringing human rights, that it supports the surveillance of minorities and that it is controlled by the Chinese government or the PLA are all “false”.

如果该法案通过，几乎可以肯定将面临来自中国公司以及其美国客户的法律挑战。尤其是一旦大型制药企业的游说者在国会山着手处理此事，可能会逐渐削弱该法案。但指导国会赞助者的反华情绪并未消失，即使这可能给美国医疗保健带来麻烦。 ■

The law, if passed, would almost certainly face legal challenges from the Chinese firms and, maybe, their American clients. It may be watered down, especially once big pharma’s lobbyists on Capitol Hill get to work on it. But the anti-Chinese sentiment guiding its congressional sponsors is not going away—even if that spells trouble for American health care. ■

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商业 | 熊彼特 (Business | Schumpeter)

本报告季使CEO们忧心忡忡的是什么？ (What is weighing on CEOs’ minds this earnings season?)

股东信函证明了它们的悲观预言。 (Shareholder letters are proving to be bleakly prophetic)

舒悦喜欢写信——并收到信函。去年，当他拿出钢笔给黑石集团老板拉里·芬克写信时，他向这位被动投资亿万富翁解释说，这样做是因为他相信他们有共同的兴趣：书信往来。专栏作家甚至引用了约翰·邓恩的一句话：“信件交融了灵魂”来引发回应。显然，不管在伊丽莎白时代的英格兰有什么优点，灵魂交融并不适用于哈德逊码头。芬克先生同意接受采访，但遗憾的是，并不同意书信往来。

Schumpeter likes to write—and receive—handwritten letters. When he got out his pen last year and wrote to Larry Fink, boss of BlackRock, he explained to the passive-investing billionaire that he was doing so because he believed they shared a mutual interest: letter-writing. Your columnist went so far as to use a John Donne quote, “letters mingle souls”, to elicit a response. Evidently soul-mingling, whatever its merits in Elizabethan England, is not the done thing in Hudson Yards. Mr Fink agreed to an interview but not, sadly, to an exchange of correspondence.

不过，个性化还并未完全消失。你可以从芬克先生最新给股东的信件，以及美国最负盛名的投资者沃伦·巴菲特和华尔街顶级银行家杰米·戴蒙的信件中看到这一点。芬克先生为了解释养老储蓄的重要性，讲述了关于他已故父母的励志故事。巴菲特先生则提到他理智（现在非常富有）的姐妹贝蒂。戴蒙先生虽然不太感情用事，但似乎肩负着世界的重担。最不个性化的是亚马逊的安迪·贾希，他在4月11日的股东信中表现得如同一个Amazon的人至骨髓。但无关紧要，信件发布当天，公司市值飙升了300亿美元，达到将近2万亿美元的历史最高点。这是一种墨水回报，每个字600万美元。对股东来说，这简直就是诗。

The personal touch is not quite dead, though. You can see that in Mr Fink’s latest letter to shareholders, as well as those of Warren Buffett, America’s most celebrated investor, and Jamie Dimon, Wall Street’s top banker. Mr Fink, to explain the importance of retirement savings, tells an uplifting story about his late mum and dad. Mr Buffett writes of his sensible (and now very rich) sister, Bertie. Mr Dimon, though hardly heart-on-sleeve, sounds like he carries the cares of the world on his shoulders. The least personal is Amazon’s Andy Jassy, who in a shareholder letter on April 11th came across as an Amazonian to the marrow of his bones. No matter. The day the letter was published his firm’s stockmarket value soared by $30bn to a record high of almost $2trn. That is an ROI—return on ink—of $6m a word. For shareholders, pure poetry.

这些信件背后还隐藏着更多内容。它们让人们感受到美国企业重要官员如何看待世界。杰米和贾希先生的两封信，在国家进入春季收益季之际尤为重要。在从1月到3月的三个金发女郎月份中，股市在通胀下降、利率下降和平稳着陆的希望推动下上涨，但他们的情绪并不如人们所期待的那样乐观。

There is more to these letters than self-publicity. They give a sense of how America’s corporate bigwigs see the world. Two letters, from Messrs Dimon and Jassy, are particularly relevant as the country enters the spring earnings season. After three Goldilocks months from January to March, when the stockmarket rallied on hopes of lower inflation, falling interest rates and a soft landing, they are less upbeat than you might expect.

本次业绩结果中企业面临的主要压力将是证明自己的价值。受到利率下降预期的推动，最近的上涨提振了构成标准普尔500指数的大公司的股价。与过去五年的平均水平相比，该指数的市盈率看起来较高。然而，通胀并没有如人们所希望的那样下降，因此利率也没有下降。换句话说，为了证明这些高估值是合理的，利润必须增长。对于受益于人工智能（AI）繁荣的公司来说这应该相对容易 — 亚马逊和微软提供计算能力；英伟达为他们提供AI芯片；而元宇宙通过AI增强了他们的广告业务。对于不太懂技术的公司来说，情况就会更为艰难。除非它们也展现出强劲的盈利增长，否则市场情绪可能会变差。

The main pressure on companies in this round of results will be to prove their worth. Buoyed by expectations of lower interest rates, the recent rally has lifted the share prices of the big companies that make up the S&P 500 index. The index’s ratio of price to earnings looks high compared with the average of the past five years. Yet inflation has not fallen as fast as hoped—and therefore nor have rates. For the lofty valuations to be justified, in other words, earnings must rise. That should be easy enough for beneficiaries of the artificial-intelligence (AI) boom—Amazon and Microsoft, which provide the computing power; Nvidia, which supplies them with AI chips; and Meta, whose advertising business has been strengthened by AI. It will be harder for less techie firms. Unless they, too, show strong earnings growth, the market’s mood may sour.

在谈到人工智能时，收入呼叫中的最大问题是大型科技公司在人工智能基础设施和服务方面的投资到底在多大程度上带来了更高的收入。在他的信中，戴蒙先生煞有介事地炒作。他写道，AI可能像“印刷机、蒸汽机、电力、计算和互联网”一样具有革命性。但他也明确表示，现在仍处于早期阶段。他的JPMorgan Chase银行似乎正在尝试“生成式”AI，这种类型在过去17个月里引起了人们的注意，而非规模部署。贾希先生描述了亚马逊云计算部门AWS正在创建的三层构建块系统，以帮助客户训练生成式AI模型、将数据输入现有模型并开发与AI相关的应用。然而，要使这些服务创造出真正的利润，大型公司如JPMorgan Chase必须从试验过渡到部署。

When it comes to AI, the big question on earnings calls will be to what extent big tech’s investments in AI infrastructure and services are in fact generating higher revenues. In his letter, Mr Dimon indulges in the hype. AI, he writes, may be as transformational as “the printing press, the steam engine, electricity, computing and the internet”. But he also makes clear it is still early days. His bank, JPMorgan Chase, appears to be experimenting with “generative” AI, the type that has grabbed attention in the past 17 months, rather than deploying it at scale. Mr Jassy describes a three-layer system of building blocks that Amazon’s cloud-computing arm, AWS, is creating to help customers train generative-AI models, feed their data into existing ones and develop AI-related applications. For such services to make real money, however, big firms like JPMorgan Chase must move from experiments to deployment.

抛开由AI尾风推动的大型科技公司，高管们的主要关注点是商业周期。最近几周，对于平稳着陆的期望已经被“无着陆”的预期所取代：增长和通货膨胀继续保持较高水平，使得长期利率保持升高。如果这些预测成真，投资者将会问，收入和利润是否能够增长得足够快以抵消利率上升的拖累。如果不能，去年看似被消除的滞涨恐惧可能会再次出现。在这方面，戴蒙先生几乎预言了未来。他写道，消费支出和因此美国经济依然坚挺，部分要归功于政府的慷慨。但将大量公共资金投入清洁能源投资、军费支出等领域可能会使通货膨胀变得更为顽固 — 并保持高于市场预期的利率。另一个不确定因素是“自二战以来最危险的地缘政治时代”。

Look beyond big tech, propelled by the tailwinds of AI, and bosses’ main concern is the business cycle. In recent weeks expectations of a soft landing have given way to those of a “no landing”: growth and inflation staying higher for longer, keeping long-term interest rates elevated. If those forecasts come true, investors will be asking whether revenues and profits can grow fast enough to offset the drag of higher rates. If not, fears of stagflation, seemingly put to rest last year, may resurface. On this score, Mr Dimon sounds almost prophetic. Consumer spending, and thus the American economy, have remained resilient, he writes, partly thanks to government largesse. But sloshing buckets of public money into clean-energy investments, military spending and so on risks making inflation stickier—and keeping rates higher—than markets expect. Adding to the uncertainty is “one of the most treacherous geopolitical eras” since the second world war.

在戴蒙发布信函数天后，他的话语开始让他感到困扰。对长期较高利率的担忧导致了摩根大通股价在4月12日出现罕见的下跌，尽管第一季度的业绩不俗。与此同时，中东紧张局势对油价造成上升压力，进一步加剧了通胀的恐惧。贾西也暗示在通胀时期经济不确定性的存在。尽管消费者继续出手，他警告股东们，他们在谨慎地消费。为了省钱，人们只要有机会就会降低消费水平。

Days after Mr Dimon’s letter was published, his words came back to haunt him. Fears of a long spell of higher interest rates contributed to a rare slump in JPMorgan Chase’s share price on April 12th, decent first-quarter results notwithstanding. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East put upward pressure on oil prices, further stoking fears of inflation. Mr Jassy also alluded to economic uncertainty in inflationary times. Though consumers continue to spend, he warns shareholders, they are doing so carefully. To save money, people are trading down whenever they can.

戴蒙和贾西领导着庞大的公司。企业规模越大，往往从更快的经济增长中受益。企业越富有，就越不怕利率飙升可能会限制其融资渠道。其他大型、深腰包的公司，如石油生产商和肥胖药物销售商，可能会强化大科技和大银行对盈利的乐观叙述。如果它们的利息成本不降低，较小、负债较高的公司将会面临挑战。

Mr Dimon and Mr Jassy lead giant companies. The bigger a business, the more it tends to benefit from faster economic growth. The richer it is, the less it fears an interest-rate crunch that could curtail its access to capital. Other large, deep-pocketed firms, such as oil producers and obesity-drug sellers, may reinforce big tech’s and big banks’ hopeful earnings narrative. Smaller, more indebted ones will struggle if their interest costs do not fall.

在商业中，你的资产负债表越糟糕，利率风险就越高。这对整个社会也是如此。正如戴蒙所指出的，将近40%的美国人没有足够的储蓄（400美元）来应对医疗账单或汽车维修等紧急支出。他的信并不乐观，而是一封悲观但有力的信。■

In business, the worse your balance-sheet, the higher the interest-rate risk. That is true in society at large. As Mr Dimon points out, nearly 40% of Americans do not have $400 in savings to deal with emergency payments such as medical bills or car repairs. His was not a cheerful letter. It was a bleakly powerful one. ■

更多来自我们的专栏作家 - 瓦尔特·施皮特的文章：生成式人工智能面临的清洁能源问题（4月11日），为什么日本公司不再迷恋美国（4月2日），遇见挑战谷歌巨头的数字化“大卫”（3月27日）。

Read more from Schumpeter, our columnist on global business:Generative AI has a clean-energy problem (Apr 11th)Why Japan Inc is no longer in thrall to America (Apr 2nd)Meet the digital David taking on the Google Goliath (Mar 27th)

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国际 | 战争和征兵 (International | War and recruitment)

你愿意为国家献出生命吗？ (Would you really die for your country?)

富裕国家的征兵制度已经成为议程上的热门话题。 (Military conscription is on the agenda in the rich world)

趴在一片泥泥浊浊的荷兰森林中，Sabrina van den Goorbergh 从 Colt C7 突击步枪中打出空包弹。这位三年级的医学生正在参加Dienjaar（服务年）项目，这是一个新项目，让年轻的荷兰人可以报名参加为期一年的武装部队试用，而不是常规的四年入伍期。该项目取得了成功，每个名额吸引了三名申请者，并且政府计划明年将其规模从625扩大到1,000名实习生。

BELLY DOWN in a muddy Dutch forest, Sabrina van den Goorbergh fires blanks from a Colt C7 assault rifle. The third-year medical student is taking part in the Dienjaar (service-year), a new programme that lets young Dutch sign up for a year-long trial in the armed forces rather than the regular four-year enlistment term. The programme is a success, drawing three applicants for each spot, and the government plans to scale it up from 625 to 1,000 trainees next year.

然而，这几乎无法解决该国的征兵问题。荷兰武装部队的人数为49,000人，不到冷战期间规模的五分之一，十分之一的职位空缺。去年，常规征兵仅带来了3,600名新士兵，而原本希望招募5,000名。值此欧洲大陆自1945年以来最大规模的战争之际，许多欧洲国家实际上希望扩大武装力量，而不仅仅是维持现状。到2030年，德国希望将军队规模从182,000人增加到203,000人，法国则从240,000人增至275,000人。波兰计划在今年年底从197,000人增至220,000人，并最终扩编至300,000人。

Yet it can hardly begin to solve the country’s recruitment problems. The Dutch armed forces number 49,000, less than a fifth of their size during the cold war, and one in ten positions is vacant. Last year regular enlistment yielded just 3,600 of a hoped-for 5,000 new soldiers. This is at a moment when, in the face of the largest war on the continent since 1945, many European countries actually want to expand their armed forces, not just maintain them. By 2030 Germany hopes to raise its troop strength from 182,000 to 203,000, and France from 240,000 to 275,000 (see chart 1). Poland plans to go from 197,000 to 220,000 by the end of this year, and eventually to 300,000.

问题在于当今以事业为导向、个人主义的年轻人不愿加入。而不仅仅是欧洲在征兵方面遇到困难。在世界各地的冲突热点周围，如何让更多人穿上军装的问题至关重要。有些国家正在重新考虑一个古老的解决方案：强制年轻人（或年轻男性）进行兵役服役，通常是毕业生。术语有所不同。征兵通常意味着强迫平民入伍，而军队服役通常指的是令年轻人在军队服役一段时间。

The problem is that today’s career-oriented, individualistic young people are reluctant to join up. And it is not just Europe that is struggling with recruitment. In and around the world’s conflict hotspots the question of how to get more people into uniform is vital. Some countries are reconsidering an old solution: mandatory military service for young people (or young men), often for school-leavers. Terminology varies. Conscription typically means compelling civilians to enlist in the armed forces, whereas military service often refers to a subset of that—ordering young people to do a stint in the forces.

20世纪初，大约80%的国家采取某种形式的征兵；到2010年代中期，这个比例降至将近40%。这一实践在世界大战期间达到顶峰，许多国家在冷战期间继续依赖这一制度。之后，西方的关注重点转向高科技的反叛运动，例如在阿富汗和伊拉克的反恐行动。大规模征募的军队大多被规模较小的职业义务兵替代。自1995年以来，OECD的13个成员国，大多数是富裕国家，已经废除了征兵制度。联合国北约的32个成员国中除了八个外，其他国家都已经取消了征兵制度。但伊朗、朝鲜和俄罗斯等专制国家却在加强他们的强制征兵军队。

At the start of the 20th century around 80% of countries had some form of conscription; by the mid-2010s it was just under 40%. The practice reached its peak during the world wars, and many countries continued to rely on it throughout the cold war. Thereafter the West’s focus turned to high-tech counterinsurgency campaigns such as those in Afghanistan and Iraq. Mass-conscript armies were mostly replaced by smaller, professional volunteer forces. Since 1995, 13 members of the OECD, a club of mostly rich countries, have scrapped conscription. All but eight of NATO’s 32 members have done away with it. But authoritarian countries such as Iran, North Korea and Russia have doubled down on their press-ganged armies.

关于强制兵役和征兵的最紧迫讨论发生在那些面临严重战争威胁或已经处于战争状态的国家。以乌克兰为例。距离俄罗斯入侵已经两年多了，成千上万的男子在那里逃往全国各地，或者躲藏起来，以避免被征召入伍。4月2日，由于缺乏军队，乌克兰政府被迫将兵役最低年龄从27岁降低到25岁。俄罗斯已经将数十万被强制动员的男子投入到战争的火线。

The most urgent discussion around mandatory military service and conscription is in countries that face a serious threat of war, or are already in one. Take Ukraine. More than two years on from Russia’s invasion, thousands of men there are fleeing across the country’s borders, or hiding, to avoid being served enlistment papers. On April 2nd a lack of troops meant Ukraine’s government was forced to lower the minimum age of conscription from 27 to 25. Russia has thrown hundreds of thousands of forcibly mobilised men into the meat-grinder of its war.

在以色列，军事职责是公民身份的中心支柱。在10月7日的袭击事件后，约30万名以色列人离开平民生活，匆忙加入他们的单位。以色列希望延长男性兵役者的服役期至三年（目前年轻女性为24个月，年轻男性为32个月），并将预备役人员的召集年龄延长至45岁。同时，正统犹太人免于服役的问题引发了一场激烈的政治斗争。

In Israel, military duties are a central pillar of citizenship. After the October 7th attacks, some 300,000 Israelis left civilian life and rushed to join their units. Israel wants to lengthen male conscripts’ service to three years (young women currently serve for 24 months and young men for 32) and to extend the call-up age for reservists to 45. At the same time, ultra-Orthodox Jews’ exemption from service is the subject of a bitter political struggle.

与此同时，在亚洲，台湾正试图为可能发生的与中国的战争做准备，因为中美之间的紧张关系仍在继续。台湾在2022年将兵役从四个月延长至一年。但该岛仍然只有约169,000名现役士兵（中国大约有200万）。韩国，军队服役具有残酷声名的国家，正在努力使其更具吸引力。服役期已缩短至18个月，薪资正在上涨，严酷的军事教官已经减少。政府还希望招聘更多女性（男性强制征兵迫使男性产生反感和反女权主义政治）。

Meanwhile in Asia, Taiwan is trying to prepare for a possible war with China as Sino-American tensions persist. Taiwan extended military service in 2022, from four months to a year. But the island still boasts just 169,000 active soldiers (China has around 2m). South Korea, where military service has a brutish reputation, is trying to make it more appealing. Service has been shortened to 18 months, wages are rising and sadistic drill-sergeants have been pruned. The government also wants to hire more women (men-only conscription has fuelled male resentment and anti-feminist politics).

在许多地方，面对价值观的转变，武装部队的招募人员面临着困难：年轻人即使在防御性战争中也变得不愿意战斗。几十年来，世界价值调查（WVS），一项学术研究项目，一直在向世界各地的人们询问同一个问题：“您愿意为自己的国家而战吗？”在最近一轮调查中，即2017年至2022年间，只有36%的荷兰16至29岁青年表示愿意。**

In many places recruiters for the armed forces are struggling in the face of shifting values: young people have grown averse to fighting even in defensive wars. For decades the World Values Survey (WVS), an academic research project, has been asking people around the world the same question: “Would you be willing to fight for your country?” In the survey’s most recent round, between 2017 and 2022, just 36% of Dutch 16- to 29-year-olds said yes (see chart 2).

招募人员试图以爱国主义、自我实现和共同价值观的论调来应对；德国武装部队——联邦国防军的铿锵口号是Wir. Dienen. Deutschland.（我们。为德国。服务。）他们还在TikTok和Instagram上与意见领袖合作开展宣传活动。但这似乎不足以达到他们的目标。

Recruiters try to counter with the rhetoric of patriotism, self-fulfilment and shared values; the emphatic slogan of Germany’s armed forces, the Bundeswehr, is Wir. Dienen. Deutschland. (We. Serve. Germany.) They also run campaigns with influencers on TikTok and Instagram. But it does not seem to be enough to hit their targets.

这在一定程度上是可以预料到的。随着国家变得更加富裕，他们的公民往往不太愿意为国家而牺牲。德国政治科学家赫弗里德·门克勒将西方民主国家称为“后英雄”社会，其中“最高价值是人类生命的保护”和个人幸福。历史当然发挥了作用。二战失败国家（德国、意大利和日本）的人们不太愿意战斗。在西班牙和葡萄牙，数十年的军事独裁统治使许多公民对军队怀有怀疑。

This is partly to be expected. As countries get richer, their citizens tend to become less eager to sacrifice themselves for the nation. Herfried Münkler, a German political scientist, called Western democracies “post-heroic” societies, in which “the highest value is the preservation of human life” and personal well-being. History certainly plays a role. Willingness to fight is low in the countries that lost the second world war (Germany, Italy and Japan). In Spain and Portugal, decades of military dictatorship left many citizens suspicious of the armed forces.

但当冲突临近时，情况可能会改变。据阿姆斯特丹VU大学的沃尔夫冈·瓦格纳、亚历山大·索尔格以及鹿特丹伊拉斯谟大学的米哈尔·翁德尔科即将发表的一篇论文称，战争的接近使公民更愿意战斗。在欧洲，这有助于解释为什么那些靠近俄罗斯的国家不那么鸽派。

But things can change when conflicts draw near. According to a forthcoming paper by Wolfgang Wagner and Alexander Sorg of the VU University in Amsterdam and Michal Onderco of the Erasmus University in Rotterdam, proximity to war makes citizens more willing to fight. In Europe, this helps explain why countries close to Russia are less doveish.

政治取向并不是决定愿意拿起武器的一个好指标。“极右翼并不那么渴望战斗”，瓦格纳先生表示，至少在德国和荷兰是如此。去年，他和他的同事在这两个国家委托进行了一项研究，发现准备投票给极左派或极右派政党的人中很少愿意为国家而战。支持德国社民党和基督教民主联盟等中间派政党的人更愿意这样做。

Political alignment is a poor predictor of willingness to bear arms. “The radical right is not so eager to fight,” says Mr Wagner, at least in Germany and the Netherlands. Last year he and his colleagues commissioned a study in those countries which found that few people who planned to vote for either far-left or far-right parties were willing to fight for their country. Those who backed centrist parties, such as Germany’s Social Democrats and Christian Democrats, were more prepared to do so.

除了价值观的改变，军队招募人员还面临经济障碍：目前有许多雇主争相争夺年轻人的服务。在大多数富裕国家，Z世代有多种工作可供选择。去年，欧盟的15至24岁青年失业率为14.5%，较2015年的22.4%有所下降。在德国，这一比例仅为5.8%。在这样的紧缩劳动力市场条件下，军队很难与私营部门竞争。此外，坐在办公桌前要比在泥泞中爬行舒服得多。

Besides changing values, military recruiters face an economic hurdle: young people currently have lots of employers bidding for their services. In most wealthy countries, Generation Z has its pick of jobs. Unemployment among 15- to 24-year-olds in the European Union was 14.5% last year, down from 22.4% in 2015. In Germany it was just 5.8%. In such tight labour markets, armies have a hard time competing with the private sector. Besides, sitting at a desk is rather nicer than crawling through mud.

然而，在一些富裕国家，年轻人参军的意愿仍然很高。在法国，世界价值调查中有58%的人表示愿意。在新加坡、台湾和韩国，这一比例更高。在丹麦、芬兰、挪威和瑞典等全球最富裕最和平的四个国家，有三分之二或更多的公民表示他们愿意参军。（所有这些国家都靠近俄罗斯。）他们不断扩大的军队也没有找到士兵的困难：这四个国家都对年轻人实行义务兵役。

In some wealthy countries, however, young people’s willingness to fight remains high. In France the share is 58% in the WVS. The figure is higher still in Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea. In Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden, four of the wealthiest and most peaceful countries in the world, two-thirds or more of citizens say they are willing. (All are close to Russia.) Their expanding armed forces also have no trouble finding soldiers: all four have compulsory military service for young people.

实际上，瑞典在2011年取消了这一做法，但在2018年由于未能达到招募目标而恢复了。对其他国家来说，这是一个引人注目的案例研究。刚刚加入北约，它的部队规模从69,700扩大到96,300名士兵，这需要每年招募约10,000名新兵。该国的所有19岁青年（男性和女性）都必须填写服务调查问卷；不到三分之一符合条件，其中约十分之一最终被征召入伍。

Sweden actually eliminated the practice in 2011, but brought it back in 2018 after failing to meet recruiting targets. It is an intriguing case study for others. Having just joined NATO, it is scaling up from 69,700 to 96,300 soldiers, which requires about 10,000 recruits a year. All of the country’s 19-year-olds (men and women) must fill out service questionnaires; a bit under a third qualify, and a tenth are ultimately inducted.

与让年轻人对军队产生反感相反，在瑞典，强制服役似乎使他们更加热情。在他们的服役结束时的退出调查中，“约80%的新兵会建议其他年轻人进行兵役服务”，国防部长帕尔·约翰逊表示。大约有30%的人会重新报名成为现役或预备役士兵。由于符合条件的年轻人比所需人数多，只有最优秀的候选人才能加入，而且服役经历是一份良好的履历。

Rather than souring young people on the armed forces, in Sweden mandatory service seems to make them more enthusiastic. In exit surveys at the end of their stints, “about 80% of the conscripts would recommend other young people to do military service”, says Pal Jonson, the defence minister. Some 30% re-enlist as soldiers or reserves. Because more young people qualify than are needed, only the best candidates make it in, and military service looks good on one’s CV.

这种征兵制有助于保持北欧军队的不同阶层人员的多样性，并遏制政治分化。（自愿者往往倾向于右翼；在德国，新纳粹组织已经渗入了国防军。）在中东，许多国家也认为年轻人服兵役对社会具有粘合作用。阿拉伯联合酋长国在2014年引入了这一制度，部分是为了在年轻人中建立共同认同感。摩洛哥、约旦和科威特也纷纷效仿。

This kind of conscription helps keep Nordic armies a melting-pot for different classes, and discourages political polarisation. (Volunteers in armed forces tend to skew towards the right; in Germany neo-Nazi cells have been uncovered in the Bundeswehr.) In the Middle East too, many states see military service for young people as a social adhesive. The United Arab Emirates introduced it in 2014 partly to forge a sense of shared identity among its youth. Morocco, Jordan and Kuwait have followed suit.

许多民主国家部队的不足显示，更好的招募策略只能在一定程度上提高部队人数。很少有医学生像范德古尔贝格女士那样有动力在一边接受步兵训练。在自由社会中，社会大众中的大部分人已经认为在军队服役是别人的工作。重新实行对年轻人的强制性军事服务可能在政治上和实际上都行不通，原因是公民与军队感到疏远。

Shortfalls across many democratic states suggest that better recruitment strategies can do only so much to boost troop numbers. Few medical students have Ms Van den Goorbergh’s drive to take up infantry training on the side. In liberal societies, large segments of the population have come to see serving in the army as someone else’s job. Reintroducing obligatory military service for youngsters might be politically and practically unworkable for the same reason recruitment is falling short: citizens feel alienated from the armed forces.

然而，北欧模式似乎有助于弥合这一差距，确保军事服务仍然是社会生活的自然组成部分，并督促更多的中学毕业生考虑从事相关职业。其他年轻人在危机中可能仍会加入军队。“是恐惧促使你行动，”曾是电视制片人、如今在乌克兰东部作战的安德烈说。他在俄罗斯入侵后的第二天就加入了。大多数乌克兰人也从未相信他们会为国家而战。 ■

Yet the Nordic model seems to help bridge that gap, ensuring that military service remains a natural part of social life and nudging more school-leavers to consider a related career. Other youngsters may still only join up in a crisis. “It is fear that moves you to action,” says Andrei, a former television producer now fighting in eastern Ukraine. He signed up the day after Russia invaded. Most Ukrainians did not believe they would ever have to fight for their country, either. ■

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金融与经济 | 盈利能力 (Finance and economics | Earning power)

Z世代富有空前 (Generation Z is unprecedentedly rich)

千禧一代在这个阶段更加贫困。婴儿潮一代也是。 (Millennials were poorer at this stage in their lives. So were baby-boomers)

Z世代正在接管。在富裕世界，至少有2.5亿人出生于1997年至2012年之间。大约一半的人现在已经有了工作。在美国的普通工作场所中，全职工作的Z世代者（有时也被称为“千禧一代”）即将超过全职工作的婴儿潮一代，即出生于1945年至1964年之间，他们的职业生涯即将结束（见图表1）。美国现在有6000多名Z世代首席执行官和1000名Z世代政治家。随着这一代越发具有影响力，公司、政府和投资者都需要了解他们。

Generation Z is taking over. In the rich world there are at least 250m people born between 1997 and 2012. About half are now in a job. In the average American workplace, the number of Gen Z-ers (sometimes also known as “Zoomers”) working full-time is about to surpass the number of full-time baby-boomers, those born from 1945 to 1964, whose careers are winding down (see chart 1). America now has more than 6,000 Zoomer chief executives and 1,000 Zoomer politicians. As the generation becomes more influential, companies, governments and investors need to understand it.

评论家们在世代上制造了很多空泛之词。最近，薯片生产商弗瑞特-莱的“研究”发现Z世代者更倾向于选择“留在手指上的小吃”，例如奶酪粉。然而，不同的世代也展示出更深层次的差异，部分是由他们成长所处的经济背景所塑造的。在通货膨胀飙升的1920年代达到成年的德国人开始厌恶物价上涨。经历大萧条的美国人倾向于避免投资股市。

Pundits produce a lot of fluff about the cohort. Recent “research” from Frito-Lay, a crisp-maker, finds that Gen Z-ers have a strong preference for “snacks that leave remnants on their fingers”, such as cheese dust. Yet different generations also display deeper differences, in part shaped by the economic context in which they grow up. Germans who reached adulthood during the high-inflation 1920s came to detest rising prices. Americans who lived through the Depression tended to avoid investing in the stockmarket.

许多人认为Z世代的特点是焦虑。这些担忧者包括纽约大学社会心理学家乔纳森·海德特，他的新书《焦虑的一代》引起轰动。在某些方面，Z世代者很与众不同。当今年轻人比昔日更不易建立关系。他们更容易感到沮丧，或者说他们在出生时被分配了错误的性别。他们更不易喝酒、进行性行为、和谈恋爱——实际上做任何令人兴奋的事情。根据官方数据，美国15至24岁的人平均每天只花38分钟与他人社交，相比2000年代的将近一个小时，这是一个减少。海德特先生将责任归咎于智能手机以及它们所支持的社交媒体。

Many argue that Gen Z is defined by its anxiety. Such worriers include Jonathan Haidt, a social psychologist at New York University, whose new book, “The Anxious Generation”, is making waves. In some ways, Gen Z-ers are unusual. Young people today are less likely to form relationships than those of yesteryear. They are more likely to be depressed or say they were assigned the wrong sex at birth. They are less likely to drink, have sex, be in a relationship—indeed to do anything exciting. Americans aged between 15 and 24 spend just 38 minutes a day socialising in person on average, down from almost an hour in the 2000s, according to official data. Mr Haidt lays the blame on smartphones, and the social media they enable.

他的书引发了极大反响。4月10日，阿肯色州州长莎拉·哈克比·桑德斯在概述关于规管儿童使用智能手机和社交媒体的计划时，附和海德特先生的论点。英国政府正在考虑类似措施。但并非每个人都同意海德特先生的论点。而围绕Z世代者焦虑的争论已经掩盖了这一代独特之处的另一方面。在财务方面，Z世代的表现出色。这反过来正在改变他们与工作的关系。

His book has provoked an enormous reaction. On April 10th Sarah Huckabee Sanders, the governor of Arkansas, echoed Mr Haidt’s arguments as she outlined plans to regulate children’s use of smartphones and social media. Britain’s government is considering similar measures. But not everyone agrees with Mr Haidt’s thesis. And the pushing and shoving over Gen Z’s anxiety has obscured another way in which the cohort is distinct. In financial terms, Gen Z is doing extraordinarily well. This, in turn, is changing its relationship with work.

考虑到在Z世代之前的一群人：千禧一代，他们出生于1981年至1996年。许多人进入职场时世界正处于2007-2009年全球金融危机的冲击之中，而在这期间，年轻人遭受了严重打击。在2012-2014年，超过一半想要工作的西班牙年轻人找不到工作。希腊的青年失业率甚至更高。2013年发行的一首流行歌曲布兰妮·斯皮尔斯的《职场妹子》对年轻的千禧一代传达了一个坚决的信息：如果你想要美好的东西，你必须努力。

Consider the group that preceded Gen Z: millennials, who were born between 1981 and 1996. Many entered the workforce at a time when the world was reeling from the global financial crisis of 2007-09, during which young people suffered disproportionately. In 2012-14 more than half of Spanish youngsters who wanted a job could not find one. Greece’s youth-unemployment rate was even higher. Britney Spears’s “Work Bitch”, a popular song released in 2013, had an uncompromising message for young millennials: if you want good things, you have to slog.

已经离开教育体系的Z世代者面临着非常不同的环境。富裕世界范围内的青年失业率—大约为13%—自1991年以来尚未达到如此低点（见图表2）。希腊的青年失业率已经从最高点下降了一半。作为旅游胜地的卡拉马塔的酒店业者抱怨劳动力短缺，这在短短几年前还是不可想象的。流行歌曲反映了时代精神。2022年，碧昂丝歌曲中的主人公夸口说：“我刚辞职了。”受美国Z世代者喜爱的21岁歌手奥利维亚·罗德里戈抱怨前任恋人的“事业真的正在起飞”。

Gen Z-ers who have left education face very different circumstances. Youth unemployment across the rich world—at about 13%—has not been this low since 1991 (see chart 2). Greece’s youth-unemployment rate has fallen by half from its peak. Hoteliers in Kalamata, a tourist destination, complain about a labour shortage, something unthinkable just a few years ago. Popular songs reflect the zeitgeist. In 2022 the protagonist in a Beyoncé song boasted, “I just quit my job”. Olivia Rodrigo, a 21-year-old singer popular with American Gen Z-ers, complains that a former love interest’s “career is really taking off”.

许多人选择学习有助于他们找到工作的科目。在英国和美国，Z世代者正在避免人文学科，而是转而选择更明显有用的学科，如经济学和工程学。职业资格也越来越受欢迎。然后年轻人受惠于紧缩的劳动力市场。就像碧昂丝的主人公一样，他们可以辞职然后找到另一份更高薪的工作。

Many have chosen to study subjects that help them find work. In Britain and America Gen Z-ers are avoiding the humanities, and are going instead for more obviously useful things like economics and engineering. Vocational qualifications are also increasingly popular. Young people then go on to benefit from tight labour markets. Like Beyoncé’s protagonist, they can quit their job and find another one if they want more money.

在美国，小时工资增长中16至24岁人群最近一年达到13％，而25至54岁人群仅有6％。这是自有可靠数据以来“年轻人溢价”最高的时刻。在英国，年轻人的工资测量方式不同，去年18至21岁人群的平均小时工资惊人增长了15％，远远超过其他年龄组的工资涨幅。在新西兰，20至24岁人群的平均小时工资增长了10％，而整体平均工资涨幅只有6％。

In America hourly pay growth among 16- to 24-year-olds recently hit 13% year on year, compared with 6% for workers aged 25 to 54. This was the highest “young person premium” since reliable data began (see chart 3). In Britain, where youth pay is measured differently, the average hourly pay of people aged 18-21 rose by an astonishing 15% last year, outstripping pay rises among other age groups by an unusually wide margin. In New Zealand the average hourly pay of people aged 20-24 increased by 10%, compared with an average of 6%.

强劲的工资增长提升了家庭收入。美国企业研究所的凯文·科林斯和美联储的杰夫·拉里莫尔合作撰写的一篇新论文评估了美国各世代家庭收入，在扣除税收、政府转移支付和通货膨胀后（见图表4）。千禧一代在与1965至1980年出生的X世代人群同龄时略微更富裕。然而，Z世代比千禧一代在同龄时更富裕。典型的25岁Z世代人士的家庭年收入超过40,000美元，比同龄X世代高出50％以上。

Strong wage growth boosts family incomes. A new paper by Kevin Corinth of the American Enterprise Institute, a think-tank, and Jeff Larrimore of the Federal Reserve assesses Americans’ household income by generation, after accounting for taxes, government transfers and inflation (see chart 4). Millennials were somewhat better off than Gen X—those born between 1965 and 1980—when they were the same age. Zoomers, however, are much better off than millennials were at the same age. The typical 25-year-old Gen Z-er has an annual household income of over $40,000, more than 50% above baby-boomers at the same age.

Z世代的经济实力在最近一场纽约罗DRIGO小姐的演唱会上展示出来。大多数在场的少女和20多岁的年轻人们花数百美元买了门票。售卖50美元T恤的商品摊前的队列绵延整个竞技场。随着她的巡演横跨大西洋，罗DRIGO小姐在其他地方售卖商品毫无困难。这在一定程度上是因为Z世代进入工作岗位后在富裕世界的不俗收入。2007年，法国16-24岁人口的平均净收入为整体平均收入的87％。如今已提升至92％。在包括克罗地亚和斯洛文尼亚在内的少数地方，Z世代的收入现在已经与整体收入持平。

Gen Z’s economic power was on display at a recent concert by Ms Rodrigo in New York. The mostly female teenagers and 20-somethings in attendance had paid hundreds of dollars for a ticket. Queues for merchandise stalls, selling $50 t-shirts, stretched around the arena. Ms Rodrigo will have no trouble shifting merchandise in other parts of the world, as her tour moves across the Atlantic. That is in part because Gen Z-ers who have entered the workplace are earning good money throughout the rich world. In 2007 the average net income of French people aged 16-24 was 87% of the overall average. Now it is equal to 92%. In a few places, including Croatia and Slovenia, Gen Z-ers are now bringing in as much as the average.

一些Z世代抗议，声称较高收入是一种幻觉，因为并未考虑高昂的大学和住房成本。毕竟，全球房价接近历史最高水平，毕业生的债务比以往更多。然而，事实上，Z世代能够应对这一切是因为他们收入颇丰。2022年，25岁以下的美国人在住房和教育上花费的税后收入占比43％，包括大学债务利息在内，略低于1989年至2019年25岁以下人群的平均比例。在高收入的支持下，美国Z世代的住房拥有率高于同龄千禧一代（尽管低于之前的几代人）。

Some Gen Z-ers protest, claiming that higher incomes are a mirage because they do not account for the exploding cost of college and housing. After all, global house prices are near all-time highs, and graduates have more debt than before. In reality, though, Gen Z-ers are coping because they earn so much. In 2022 Americans under 25 spent 43% of their post-tax income on housing and education, including interest on debt from college—slightly below the average for under-25s from 1989 to 2019. Bolstered by high incomes, American Zoomers’ home-ownership rates are higher than millennials’ at the same age (even if they are lower than previous generations’).

这种财富意味着什么？似乎千禧一代成长过程中认为工作是一种特权，并相应地行事。他们尊敬老板，渴望讨好。相比之下，Z世代在成长过程中相信工作基本上是一种权利，这意味着他们对工作有着不同的态度。去年，Z世代吹嘘“低调辞职”，只付出足够努力以免被解雇。其他人谈论“最低限度星期一”。追求从盛气凌人的男性手中夺取企业控制权的“女老板”原型吸引了千禧一代女性。而Z世代更倾向于讨论“蜗牛女孩”的概念，他们从容从容，优先考虑自我关怀。

What does this wealth mean? It can seem as if millennials grew up thinking a job was a privilege, and acted accordingly. They are deferential to bosses and eager to please. Zoomers, by contrast, have grown up believing that a job is basically a right, meaning they have a different attitude to work. Last year Gen Z-ers boasted about “quiet quitting”, where they put in just enough effort not to be fired. Others talk of “bare minimum Monday”. The “girlboss” archetype, who seeks to wrestle corporate control away from domineering men, appeals to millennial women. Gen Z ones are more likely to discuss the idea of being “snail girls”, who take things slowly and prioritise self-care.

数据支持这些梗。2022年，15至24岁的美国人在“工作和与工作相关活动”上花费的时间比2007年少了25％。国际货币基金组织发表的一篇新论文分析了人们称希望工作的小时数。不久之前，年轻人希望工作的时间比老年人多得多。现在他们想要工作更少。根据圣迭戈州立大学的珍特溫格的分析，美国12年级学生（17或18岁）中将工作视为“生活的核心部分”的比例急剧下降。

The data support the memes. In 2022 Americans aged between 15 and 24 spent 25% less time on “working and work-related activities” than in 2007. A new paper published by the IMF analyses the number of hours that people say they would like to work. Not long ago young people wanted to work a lot more than older people. Now they want to work less. According to analysis by Jean Twenge of San Diego State University, the share of American 12th-graders (aged 17 or 18) who see work as a “central part of life” has dropped sharply.

另一个后果是Z世代更少涉及创业。我们估计欧盟20多岁人群中只有1.1％经营雇用他人的企业，近年来这一比例有所下降。在2000年代末，全球亿万富翁中超过1％的人是千禧一代。当时市场专家对超年轻的科技创始人非常着迷，比如马克·扎克伯格（Facebook）、帕特里克·科里森（Stripe）和埃文·斯皮格尔（Snapchat）。相比之下，如今《福布斯》名单上不到0.5％是Z世代。谁能说出一个著名的Z世代创业创始人？

Another consequence is that Gen Z-ers are less likely to be entrepreneurs. We estimate that just 1.1% of 20-somethings in the EU run a business that employs someone else—and in recent years the share has drifted down. In the late 2000s more than 1% of the world’s billionaires, as measured by Forbes, a magazine, were millennials. Back then pundits obsessed over ultra-young tech founders, such as Mark Zuckerberg (Facebook), Patrick Collison (Stripe) and Evan Spiegel (Snapchat). Today, by contrast, less than 0.5% on the Forbes list are Zoomers. Who can name a famous Gen Z startup founder?

Z世代也产生的创新较少。明尼苏达大学的罗素·冯克表示，年轻人提交专利的可能性不如近年来。或者考虑一下告示牌百强单曲榜，衡量了美国最受欢迎的歌曲。2008年，42％的热门歌曲是由千禧一代演唱的；15年后，只有29％是由Z世代演唱的。泰勒·斯威夫特，全球最受欢迎的创作歌手，以她的出生年份“1989”命名了她最著名的专辑。世界仍在等待有人制作“2004”。

Gen Z-ers are also producing fewer innovations. According to Russell Funk of the University of Minnesota, young people are less likely to file patents than they were in the recent past. Or consider the Billboard Hot 100, measuring America’s most popular songs. In 2008, 42% of hits were sung by millennials; 15 years later only 29% were sung by Gen Z-ers. Taylor Swift, the world’s most popular singer-songwriter, titled her most famous album “1989”, after the year of her birth. The world is still waiting for someone to produce “2004”.

Z 世代的经济优势能持续多久？经济衰退总是会更加严重地打击年轻人。即使 **人工智能** 可能会动摇全球经济，年轻人日后可能会更有利于从这种混乱中受益。然而，眼下，Z 世代有许多值得高兴的事情。在麦迪逊广场花园人潮涌动时，奥利维亚·罗德里戈坐在钢琴前，劝告她的粉丝要感恩他们所拥有的一切。她说：“成长真是特别棒”，“你有足够的时间来做你想做的事情。” 既有时间也有金钱。 ■

How long will Generation Z’s economic advantage last? A recession would hit young people harder than others, as recessions always do. Artificial intelligence could destabilise the global economy, even if youngsters may in time be better placed to benefit from the disruption. For now, though, Generation Z has a lot to be happy about. Between numbers at Madison Square Garden, Olivia Rodrigo sits at the piano and counsels her fans to be thankful for all that they have. “Growing up is fucking awesome,” she says. “You have all the time to do all the things you want to do.” The time and the money. ■

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金融与经济 | Buttonwood (Finance and economics | Buttonwood)

为何股市正在消失 (Why the stockmarket is disappearing)

字节跳动、OpenAI和Stripe等大公司选择保持私人所有制 (Large companies such as ByteDance, OpenAI and Stripe are staying private)

供给和需求法则是经济学学生学习的最初内容之一。当某物的价格上涨时，生产者会提供更多的产品到市场。那么，全球股市究竟发生了什么呢？

The law of supply and demand is one of the first things that students of economics learn. When the price of something goes up, producers bring more to market. What, then, is going on in global stockmarkets?

全球股价从未如此之高，过去一年上涨了14%。同时，股票供应在减少。正如摩根大通银行的分析师们所指出的那样，公司上市的速度今年比去年慢，而去年已经是不景气的一年。这意味着今年迄今为止，扣除股票回购后的股权发行已经是负数，达到了负1200亿美元——自1999年以来这一数字至少是最低的。包括字节跳动、OpenAI、Stripe和SpaceX在内的公司估值达到数千亿甚至数万亿美元，并且仍然是私有公司。

Global share prices have never been higher, having risen by 14% over the past year. At the same time, the supply of stocks is shrinking. As analysts at JPMorgan Chase, a bank, note, the pace of company listings is slower this year than last, and last year was already a slow one. This means that equity issuance net of stock buy-backs so far this year is already negative, at minus $120bn—the lowest such figure since at least 1999. Companies including ByteDance, OpenAI, Stripe and SpaceX have valuations in the tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars, and remain private.

摩根大通的老板杰米·戴蒙是其中一位表达担忧的人。他指出，对环境、社会和公司治理报告的需求以及季度盈利报告的压力部分解释了这一趋势。但在很大程度上，股市的萎缩是对公司创始人更多选择的一个副作用：他们现在有更多的选择。据咨询公司麦肯锡称，截至2023年中期，私募股权基金管理了8.2万亿美元，是2018年的两倍多。如果创始人不想上市，他们现在面临的压力更小。有许多愿意投资于他们的基金。

Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan’s boss, is among those to have voiced concern. He identifies demand for environmental, social and governance reporting and the pressure of quarterly earnings reports as part of the trend’s explanation. But for the most part, the disappearing stockmarket is a side-effect of something more positive for company founders: they simply have more options. Private-equity funds managed $8.2trn by the middle of 2023, according to McKinsey, a consultancy—more than twice the amount in 2018. If founders do not want to go public, they now face less pressure to do so. There are plenty of funds that are willing to invest in them regardless.

创始人有许多原因选择保持私有化。无形资产的崛起是其中一个重要因素。这些资产包括版权、软件和其他知识产权，以及品牌知名度。俄亥俄州立大学的雷内·斯图尔茨指出，对财务信息和战略披露的要求有利于拥有有形资产（如机械和房地产）的公司。当一家公司宣布拥有一栋建筑时，竞争对手几乎无法窃取这个资产。而当涉及到想法、研究和其他无形资产时，竞争对手所知道的越少，越好。如果一家公司试图在上市时隐瞒信息，那么它可能会被低估。更糟糕的是，可能会触犯法律。

Founders have many reasons to stay private. The rise of intangible assets is a big one. Such assets range from copyrights, software and other intellectual property to brand recognition. René Stulz of Ohio State University notes that requirements for disclosure of financial information and strategy favour companies with tangible assets, such as machinery and real estate. When a firm announces it owns a building, competitors can hardly steal the asset. When it comes to ideas, research and other intangibles, the less rival firms know, the better. If a company tries to withhold information when listing, it may be undervalued. Worse still, it may be breaking the law.

然而，除公司创始人外，其他人可能会担心这种趋势。公开市场比私人市场更加透明。因此，它们的减少重要性不仅影响投资者，还影响监测金融稳定性的监管机构和评估市场的分析师。股票仍然往往是不那么老练的散户投资者组合的基石。三位经济学家亚历山大·廖恩克维斯特、拉斯·佩尔松和乔阿辛·塔格建议，市场的消失可能会减少公众对亲商政策的支持，因为选民从公司利润获得的好处更少。

People other than company founders may be worried by the trend, however. Public markets are more transparent than private ones. Thus their reduced importance matters not just for investors, but for regulators monitoring financial stability and analysts assessing the market. Stocks also still tend to be the cornerstone of portfolios for less sophisticated retail investors. Alexander Ljungqvist, Lars Persson and Joacim Tag, three economists, suggest that the disappearance of markets may reduce public support for business-friendly government policies, as voters benefit less from corporate profits.

有没有可能采取措施来重振股市呢？机构投资者行为的变化可能会减弱一些趋势的破坏性后果。这些投资者对私募股权的配置在近年来有所增加，从5年前的6%上升到2023年的10%，与此同时，对上市股票的配置也下降了相近的比例。这将确保家庭通过他们的养老金和共同基金获得私有持有投资的曝光。

Might anything be done to revive stockmarkets? The changing behaviour of institutional investors may blunt some of the trend’s more damaging consequences. Allocations from such investors to private equity have grown in recent years, rising to 10% of their assets in 2023 from 6% five years earlier, at the same time as allocations to listed equities have dropped by a similar amount. This will provide households with exposure to privately held investments through their pension and mutual funds.

不过，机构投资者对提高私有市场的透明度做的事情很少。监管机构可能喜欢的一种选择是对选择不上市的大公司实施更严格的要求，以弥合公有和私有公司所面临的规则差距。一种不那么强制的选择是减少公司在上市时被迫分享的信息量。

But institutional investors will do little to improve transparency in private markets. One option that might appeal to regulators is to impose tighter requirements on large companies that choose not to list, in order to close the gap between the rules faced by public and private firms. A less coercive option would be to reduce the amount of information that companies are forced to share when they go public.

不幸的是，过去此类努力取得了参半的效果。美国于2012年引入的“创业公司启动法案”（JOBS法案）减少了对公有公司的披露要求。尽管2015年的评估显示，它使首次公开募股增加了25%，但2022年的另一项研究表明，它通过鼓励那些最终表现不佳的低质量项目来增加了首次公开募股。

Unfortunately, such efforts have produced mixed results in the past. The Jumpstart Our Business Startups (JOBS) Act, which was introduced in America in 2012, reduced disclosure requirements for public firms. Although an assessment in 2015 indicated that it had boosted initial public offerings by 25%, another in 2022 suggested that it had done so by encouraging low-quality offerings that ended up underperforming the market.

因此，股市最好的希望可能在于私募股权投资者的贪婪。公开市场仍然为那些希望将公司持有转化为现金的人提供无与伦比的退出途径。另一家咨询公司贝恩指出，私募股权基金目前持有3.2万亿美元的未出售资产。在某个时刻，最终投资者将希望拿回资金。但在那之前，戴蒙先生是正确的：不断萎缩的公开市场是令人担忧的事情。■

As a result, the best hope for stockmarkets may lie with the greed of private-equity investors. Public markets still provide an unparalleled exit route for those who would like to turn corporate holdings into ready cash. Bain, another consultancy, notes that private-equity funds are currently sitting on $3.2trn in unsold assets. At some point, end-investors will want the money back. But until then, Mr Dimon is right: shrinking public markets are cause for concern. ■

Read more from Buttonwood, our columnist on financial markets:What China’s central bank and Costco shoppers have in common (Apr 11th)How to build a global currency (Apr 4th)How the “Magnificent Seven” misleads (Mar 27th)

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金融和经济 | 制造业奇迹 (Finance and economics | Manufacturing miracles)

中国更好的经济增长掩盖了令人担忧的原因 (China’s better economic growth hides reasons to worry)

该国领导人对通缩过于自满。 (The country’s leaders are too complacent about deflation)

当中国领导人设定今年经济增长目标为“大约”5%时，这一目标被普遍认为是雄心勃勃的。如今，中国看起来越来越有可能实现这一目标。几家外国银行已经上调了他们的预测。4月16日发布的数据显示，今年第一季度经济同比增长了5.3%，比预期要快，也比目标要求的速度更快。

When China’s leaders set an economic-growth target of “around” 5% for this year, the goal was widely agreed to be ambitious. Now the country looks increasingly likely to meet it. Several foreign banks have raised their forecasts. Data released on April 16th show the economy grew by 5.3% in the first quarter, compared with a year earlier—quicker than expected and faster than the target requires.

这是如何发生的呢？处于中国这个发展阶段的国家通常会向服务业转变。然而，中国领导人对“硬”产出情有独钟。中国国家主席习近平将制造业视为繁荣和安全的源泉。他渴望官员所称的能够让中国摆脱对外国实力的依赖，获得关键技术输入的“完整”产业链。他最新的五年计划旨在阻止制造业在国内生产总值中份额稳步下降。

How is this happening? Countries at China’s stage of development often shift towards services. Yet China’s leaders have a soft spot for “hard” output. Xi Jinping, the country’s ruler, sees manufacturing as a source of both prosperity and security. He covets what officials call a “complete” industrial chain that would free China from reliance on foreign powers for vital technological inputs. His latest five-year plan aims to stop the steady decline in manufacturing’s share of GDP.

第一季度与该目标保持一致。制造业产出同比增长了6.7%，快于整体经济增长。高科技制造业表现得更好。中国领导人已经多次谈到了培育“新质量生产力”的需要，这一术语首次出现在月度统计新闻发布中。

The first quarter was consistent with that goal. Manufacturing output grew by 6.7% compared with a year ago, faster than the overall economy. High-tech manufacturing fared even better. China’s leaders have talked a lot about the need to cultivate “new quality productive forces”, buzzwords that appeared in the monthly statistical press release for the first time.

但即使中国摆脱了对外国供应商的依赖，它仍然依赖外国买家。据钟智伟表示，第一季度出口量同比增长了14%，价格下降和竞争性汇率均起到了帮助作用。美国劳工统计局认为，中国商品价格在第一季度同比下降了2.9%。这是历史第三大降幅。

But even as China weans itself off foreign suppliers, it remains reliant on foreign buyers. The volume of exports grew by 14% in the first quarter compared with a year earlier, according to Zhiwei Zhang of Pinpoint Asset Management. Falling prices and a competitive currency have helped. America’s Bureau of Labour Statistics reckons the price of goods from China fell by 2.9% year-on-year in the first quarter. That is the third-steepest drop on record.

中国在没有引起贸易伙伴对保护主义的强烈反弹之前不能长期依赖强劲的出口。德国总理奥拉夫·肖尔茨在4月16日与习近平在北京会面时提到了对中国产能过剩的担忧。德国曾经受益于中国的经济进步。它向中国销售复杂的工业产品，即使中国制造商征服了全球低端市场。如今，这两个国家在许多德国热衷的行业中已经变成了竞争对手，包括化工、机械和汽车。

China cannot rely on strong exports for long without provoking a protectionist backlash from its trading partners. Olaf Scholz, chancellor of Germany, raised fears about Chinese overcapacity when he met Mr Xi in Beijing on April 16th. Germany used to benefit from China’s economic progress. It sold sophisticated industrial goods to China, even as China’s manufacturers conquered lower-end markets around the world. Now the two countries have become rivals in many industries Germany holds dear, including chemicals, machinery and, of course, cars.

中国依赖海外市场反映出了国内一些持续存在的弱点。3月份零售销售状况出现意外不佳，消费者信心仍然不高。楼市困境持续存在。据路透社报道，中国70个最大城市的新建住宅平均价格与去年同期相比下降了2.2%，是自2015年以来的最大降幅。新建住宅销售额下降了五分之一以上。

China’s reliance on markets abroad reflects some enduring weaknesses at home. Retail sales were surprisingly poor in March. Consumer confidence remains low. And the property market’s misery continues. The price of new flats in 70 of China’s biggest cities fell by 2.2% on average in March compared with a year earlier, the steepest drop since 2015, according to Reuters, a news agency. Sales of newly built residential housing fell by over a fifth.

中国楼市的低迷导致了许多相关领域的价格下降，如建材和家电。这加深了通货紧缩对经济的影响。工业品出厂价格已经连续18个月下降。消费品价格通胀，在农历新年假期短暂反弹后，3月份保持在接近零的水平。如日本野村银行的卢廷所指出的那样，下降的价格是一把双刃剑。它提高了中国在海外的竞争力，这是中国出口意外强劲的原因之一。但如果通货紧缩持续下去，将可能侵蚀收入，使债务更难负担。这也可能迫使公司削减工资，这对恢复家庭士气和消费毫无裨益。

The slump in China’s property market has contributed to falling prices in many related parts of the economy, such as building materials and housing appliances. That has deepened deflation’s grip on the economy. Factory-gate prices have now fallen for 18 months in a row. Consumer price inflation, after a brief uptick during the lunar new year holiday in February, remained near zero in March. Declining prices are a double-edged sword, as Ting Lu of Nomura, a bank, has pointed out. They have increased China’s competitiveness abroad, which is one reason why the country’s exports have been surprisingly strong. But if deflation persists it could erode revenues, making debts harder to bear. It might also force companies to cut wages, which would do nothing to restore household morale or spending.

尽管中国领导人对通货紧缩的危险似乎有些偏执，但他们对此似乎过于自满。也许他们将其视为一时的波动，不应分散他们对长期目标的注意力，这些目标是加强中国以应对全球权力平衡中的变化，即习近平所称的“百年未有之大变局”。然而，贫穷的价格可能会将经济的短期衰退转化为持续的衰退。本周的数据显示，中国的GDP国内生产总值价格指数已经连续四个季度下滑。自1999年以来从未发生过这种情况。或者用习近平可能欣赏的说法，这是本世纪以来前所未见的变化。■

For all the paranoia of China’s leaders, they seem worryingly complacent about the danger of deflation. Perhaps they view it as a blip, which should not distract them from long-term aims to fortify China against shifts in the global balance of power—what Mr Xi calls “changes unseen in a century”. Falling prices can, though, turn a passing downturn into a protracted slump. This week’s figures showed that China’s GDP deflator, a broad measure of prices, has fallen for four quarters in a row. That has not happened since 1999. Or to put it in terms Mr Xi might appreciate, it is a change unseen this century. ■

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金融和经济 | 冲突融资 (Finance and economics | Conflict finance)

俄罗斯冻结的资产将很快为乌克兰的战争买单 (Frozen Russian assets will soon pay for Ukraine’s war)

而美国现在希望说服其他国家更好地利用这笔资金。 (And America now hopes to convince others to make better use of the stash)

俄罗斯在4月11日摧毁了Trypilska发电厂后，乌克兰指责缺乏反导弹弹药。该国领导人迫切需要更多财政支持。弹药和资金的两种短缺反映了乌克兰盟友之间不同的制约条件。弹药的短缺主要是由于工业能力有限，而资金短缺则是由政治意愿不足造成的。

After Russia destroyed the Trypilska power plant on April 11th, Ukraine blamed a lack of anti-missile ammunition. The country’s leaders are also desperate for more financial support. The two shortages—of ammunition and money—reflect different constraints among Ukraine’s allies. Whereas the lack of ammunition is mostly the product of limited industrial capacity, the lack of money is the product of limited political will.

然而在一个领域，展现出了一些进展迹象：对俄罗斯冻结资产的处理。在弗拉基米尔·普京入侵乌克兰之后，西方政府迅速冻结了价值2600亿欧元（2820亿美元）的俄罗斯资产，自那以后这些资产一直被冻结。关于如何处理这些资产的建议从激进（没收并移交给乌克兰）到创意（强制将它们再投资于乌克兰战争债券）不等而出。直到最近，没有一种得到西方政府的广泛支持。

In one area, though, there are signs of progress: over what to do with Russia’s frozen assets. After Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, Western governments quickly locked down €260bn-worth ($282bn) of Russian assets, which have remained frozen ever since. Proposals about what to do with them have ranged from the radical (seize them and hand them over to Ukraine) to the creative (force them to be reinvested in Ukrainian war bonds). Until recently, none has found widespread favour with Western governments.

4月10日，美国国家副安全顾问、国际经济事务代表戴利普·辛格宣布，拜登政府现在希望利用俄罗斯冻结资产的利息收入，以“最大限度地发挥这些收入的效益，无论是当前还是未来，都是为了今天造福乌克兰”。六天后，英国外交大臣戴维·卡梅伦也宣布支持：“有一种新兴一致意见认为，这些资产的利息可以被利用。”

Read more of our recent coverage of the Ukraine war

这种方法相当巧妙。从俄罗斯的海外资产获得的收入可以合法且实际地被没收。该国的许多债券已经到期。债券偿还的现金由目前持有的托管机构保管，按照托管机构的通常条款和条件，不向所有者支付利息。因此获得的任何利息都属于托管机构，除非国家决定对其征收接近100%的税率。

Could that soon change? On April 10th Daleep Singh, America’s deputy national security adviser for international economics, declared that the Biden administration now wanted to make use of interest income on frozen Russian assets in order to “maximise the impact of these revenues, both current and future, for the benefit of Ukraine today”. Six days later David Cameron, Britain’s foreign secretary, announced his support, too: “There is an emerging consensus that the interest on those assets can be used.”

接下来，根据《经济学人》在二月份的建议是将这些收入流的净现值转移给乌克兰。将俄罗斯的现金持有投资于五年期的德国国债，将每年收益33亿欧元，足以偿还同等期限的欧盟债务约1160亿欧元。其余的是金融管道：设立一个由G7担保的基金，接收托管机构对俄罗斯现金产生的收入，将该基金的债务发行给市场，然后将收益批量发送给乌克兰。

The approach is an elegant one. Income earned on Russia’s foreign holdings can be seized in a manner that is both legal and practical. Many of the country’s bonds have already matured. Cash from redemption of bonds is held by the depository in which it currently sits until it is withdrawn, paying no interest to the owner as per the depository’s usual terms and conditions. Any interest earned thus belongs to the depository—unless, that is, the state decides to tax it at a rate close to 100%.

尽管欧盟已同意没收托管机构的利润，但却没有同意随后的措施。根据该集团目前的计划，如果一切顺利，这些收益将用于7月支付乌克兰弹药，同时将一小部分留出以补偿托管机构因俄罗斯的法律诉讼或报复而产生的费用。但许多欧洲人对美国通过金融工程释放更多资金的欲望仍心存疑虑。4月17日，欧洲央行行长克里斯汀·拉加德表示，此类提议面临“非常严重的法律障碍”。

Next, as suggested by The Economist in February, would be to transfer the net present value of that income stream to Ukraine. Investing Russia’s cash holdings into five-year German bunds would yield €3.3bn a year, enough to service EU debt of about €116bn at the same maturity. The rest is financial plumbing: set up a G7-guaranteed fund that receives the depositories’ incomes on Russian cash, issue that fund’s debt to the markets and send the proceeds in bulk to Ukraine.

乌克兰将会欢迎资金的滴注，但对于美国提议中承诺的大笔资金，将是更为理想的。因此，欧洲政治家在白宫有新主人前就应谨慎考虑支持。■

Although the EU has agreed to seize profits from depositories, it has not agreed to the subsequent steps. Under the bloc’s current plans, the proceeds will be used to pay for Ukrainian ammunition by July if all goes well, with a small portion set aside to compensate depositories for any Russian legal action or retaliation. But many in Europe remain suspicious about America’s desire to unlock more money through financial engineering. On April 17th Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, suggested that such proposals face a “very serious legal obstacle”.

A drip of funds would be welcomed by Ukraine, but a big wodge of cash, as promised by America’s proposal, would be better still. European politicians would therefore be wise to sign up to it before there is a new occupant of the White House. ■

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金融和经济 | 爆炸性材料 (Finance and economics | Explosive material)

即使在海湾没有战争，更昂贵的汽油也会长期存在 (Even without war in the Gulf, pricier petrol is here to stay)

昂贵的石油可能让唐纳德·特朗普入主白宫。 (Expensive oil could put Donald Trump in the White House)

当伊朗的导弹在4月13日星期六朝着以色列发射时，石油市场关闭了。当它们在周一开市后，它们的反应是“无所谓”。全球基准布伦特原油跌破每桶90美元的关口。此后价格一直徘徊在这个水平附近（见图表）。

When Iran’s missiles whizzed towards Israel on Saturday April 13th, oil markets were closed. When they opened on Monday, their reaction was a loud “meh”. Brent crude, the global benchmark, dipped below $90 a barrel. It has since hovered around that level (see chart).

交易员们预料到会发生这种类型的袭击：足够引起担忧；明显到足以被挫败。他们现在在打赌，以色列不会做出过激反应。然而，即使油价没有激增，它们仍然处于尴尬的高位，并似乎在夏季进一步上涨的可能性很大，届时需求增加，而供应紧张可能会使市场陷入赤字。一群决策者——从央行行长到将于11月面临连任的总统乔·拜登——正焦急地注视着。

Traders had expected an attack of precisely this variety: big enough to cause concern; obvious enough to be foiled. They are now betting that Israel will avoid anything too rash in response. Yet even if oil prices do not surge, they remain uncomfortably elevated and seem likely to rise higher still in the summer, when increasing demand amid tight supply will probably tip the market into deficit. A cast of decision-makers—from central bankers to President Joe Biden, who faces re-election in November—is watching anxiously.

地缘政治风险在一定程度上解释了为何油价自去年12月以来上涨了四分之一。布伦特原油价格自4月1日以色列炸毁了伊朗驻大马士革领事馆后近六个月来首次突破90美元。供应中断发挥着更大的作用。墨西哥正在减少出口以在国内生产更多汽油。一根漏油的苏格兰输油管被迫关闭。利比亚动荡使产出中断；南苏丹的战争也可能产生同样的影响。

Geopolitical risk explains, in part, why oil prices have risen by a quarter since December. Brent passed $90 for the first time in nearly six months after Israel bombed Iran’s consulate in Damascus on April 1st. Supply disruptions are playing an even bigger role. Mexico is slashing shipments in order to produce more petrol at home. A leaky Scottish pipeline was forced to close. Turmoil in Libya is disrupting output; war in South Sudan could do the same.

与此同时，对俄罗斯更严厉的制裁导致更多俄罗斯石油受困。印度的炼油厂表示，自2022年以来成为俄罗斯第二大买家的国家，他们不再欢迎俄罗斯国有航运公司Sovcomflot旗下的油轮，以免遭到西方的报复。自10月以来，美国对大约40艘俄罗斯船只实施的制裁多数并未继续装载俄罗斯石油。对委内瑞拉重新实施制裁可能进一步削减供应。美国还可能决定加强对伊朗石油销售的禁运。

Meanwhile, tougher sanctions on Russia are leaving more of its oil stranded. In March refiners in India—Russia’s second-biggest buyer since 2022—said they would no longer welcome tankers owned by Sovcomflot, Russia’s state-owned shipping firm, for fear of Western retribution. Most of the 40-odd tankers subject to sanctions by America since October have not gone on to load Russian oil. The reimposition of sanctions on Venezuela could further dent supply. America may also decide to better police its embargo on Iran’s oil sales.

最大的供应中断是故意的。这来自石油输出国组织及其盟国（OPEC+）。去年11月，该组织承诺将减产每天220万桶，相当于全球产量的2%。大多数观察人士预期，在2024年油价可能会上涨的情况下，成员国将有机会削减减产。然而，今年3月，一些成员宣布将延长减产措施至6月底。俄罗斯甚至表示将再减产47.1万桶/日，将产量从战前的1080万桶/日降至900万桶/日。

The biggest supply disruption is deliberate. It is coming from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+). In November the group pledged to cut output by 2.2m barrels a day (b/d), or 2% of global production. Most observers had expected that, with prices likely to rise throughout 2024, members would take the chance to row back on the cuts. Instead, several announced in March that they would extend them until the end of June. Russia even said it would deepen its cuts by another 471,000 b/d, reducing output to 9m b/d, from 10.8m b/d pre-war.

去年，该卡特尔以外的成员的供应增长已经超过了需求的增长。今年非OPEC产量将再次增加——预计巴西和圭亚那将汲取创纪录的产量——但增长将放缓。全球石油库存已经在减少。今年夏天，随着美国度假者上路，库存将进一步减少。

Last year supply growth outside the cartel more than made up for the rise in demand. This year non-OPEC output will rise again—Brazil and Guyana are expected to pump record amounts—but growth will slow. Global oil stocks are already falling. They will shrink faster this summer, as holidaymakers in America take to the road.

在需求变得更加紧迫的同时，制造业活动的测量数据出乎意料地向好的美国、中国和欧洲使得官方预测机构国际能源署预计，今年全球原油需求将平均每日增加120万桶，高于其在10月份建议的每日90万桶。其他一些重要交易商和OPEC本身估计，需求增长可能接近或超过每天200万桶。

All this is happening at the same time as demand becomes more pressing. Measures of manufacturing activity in America, China and Europe have surprised on the upside, leading the International Energy Agency, an official forecaster, to predict that global crude demand will rise by an average of 1.2m b/d this year, up from the 900,000 b/d it suggested in October. Others, including some big traders and OPEC itself, reckon demand growth may near or surpass 2m b/d.

油价将何去何从？如果OPEC+保持减产不变，油价可能会在数月内达到100美元。但这并不是卡特尔真正希望出现的结果。许多成员国，尤其是沙特阿拉伯，担心油价的快速上涨可能摧毁需求。昂贵的原油正将美国汽油价格推高到每加仑3.60美元的水平，距离4美元更近了。摩根大通银行估计，价格飙升到这一点可能会在夏季减少每日20万桶的汽油需求。因此，OPEC+可能会在下次会议上表明其打算增加产量。前OPEC分析师、现任咨询公司Rystad Energy的Jorge León预计，今年第三季度原油平均价格将达到每桶90美元，第四季度为每桶89美元。期货市场更加乐观：购买12月交货的原油价格约为每桶85美元。

Where will the oil price go next? If OPEC+ keeps its cuts unchanged, it could reach $100 within months. But that is not an outcome the cartel really wants. Many members, not least Saudi Arabia, worry that a rapid rise in the oil price could destroy demand. Dearer crude is pushing American petrol prices, already at $3.60 a gallon, closer to $4. A surge past that point could shave 200,000 b/d off petrol demand over the summer, estimates JPMorgan Chase, a bank. Thus OPEC+ may signal its intention to produce more at its next meeting. Jorge León, a former OPEC analyst now at Rystad Energy, a consultancy, expects crude to average $90 a barrel in the third quarter of the year and $89 in the final quarter. Futures markets are even more sanguine: buying crude for delivery in December costs around $85 a barrel.

即使 以牙还牙 在以色列和伊朗之间升级，也不太可能有太大变化。伊朗出口的任何减少——在3月份价值160万桶/日——可能会被 欧佩克 其他成员更多地供油来平衡。在最坏的情况下，伊朗可能会决定关闭霍尔木兹海峡，这是一条连接海湾和印度洋的水路，全球30%的海运石油，几乎所有海湾地区的石油都必须通过这里。然而这样做会激怒该地区的几乎所有人，并使伊朗与其唯一的石油买家——中国脱离联系。尽管伊朗可以选择以不那么自损的方式制造麻烦，比如在海湾骚扰船只，但这可能影响不大。即使在20世纪80年代的油轮战争中——当时数百艘油轮遭到袭击——也未能持续提振价格。

Even if the tit-for-tat between Israel and Iran escalates, it is unlikely to change much. Any reduction in Iran’s exports—worth 1.6m b/d in March—might be balanced by more pumping from the rest of OPEC. In a worst-case scenario, Iran could decide to close the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that connects the Gulf to the Indian Ocean, through which 30% of the world’s seaborne oil, and nearly all of the Gulf’s, must pass. Yet doing so would anger just about everyone in the region, and cut off Iran from its sole oil buyer: China. Although Iran could opt to cause trouble in less self-harming ways, such as harassing ships in the Gulf, this may not have a big impact. Even the tanker war of the 1980s—when hundreds of tankers were attacked—failed to durably boost prices.

因此，最有可能的情景是，油价对全球经济仍然可以接受，大约在每桶85-90美元左右，同时让 欧佩克 成员赚取丰厚的利润。不过油价不太可能很快下跌。对于美国选民来说，是否能容忍这样的水平，他们每天在公路旁看到用大红数字广告的汽油价格，是完全另一回事。 ■

The most likely scenario, therefore, is that oil prices remain tolerable to the world economy, at somewhere in the region of $85-90 a barrel, while allowing OPEC members to earn juicy margins. Prices are unlikely to fall soon, though. And whether such a level is tolerable to American voters, who see gasoline prices advertised in big red numbers by the highway every day, is another matter entirely. ■

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金融和经济 | House of Fraser (Finance and economics | House of Fraser)

花旗集团，华尔街最大赔钱者，终于走好运了 (Citigroup, Wall Street’s biggest loser, is at last on the up)

简·弗雷泽的意外成功 (Jane Fraser’s unexpected success)

不可管理和不值得投资。长久以来，投资者一直把花旗银行视作如此。十多年来，这家曾经是美国最大和最有价值的银行已经陷入困境。它的价值是2006年的一半，是唯一一个比全球金融危机前估值低的美国大银行。无论从哪个角度看，花旗银行与其竞争对手相比都无疑处于垫底位置。这家公司的员工比美国银行还要多，但利润只有美国银行的三分之一。

Unmanageable and uninvestible. That is how investors have long considered Citigroup. For over a decade the bank, which was once the largest and most valuable in America, has been a basket case. It trades at half the value it did in 2006, making it the only big American bank to fetch a valuation lower than its peak before the global financial crisis. Pick any measure and Citi is invariably dead last compared with its rivals. The firm has more staff than Bank of America, yet makes only a third of the profit.

它饱受惨败的奖励并不是一个参与奖杯，而是监管机构颁发的一纸同意令，要求其改进内部监督，并改变风险衡量方式。2020年，该公司由于一次意外向濒临破产的露华浓公司债权人误转了8.94亿美元，导致它成为了华尔街的笑柄。简·弗雷泽在此次狼狈中成为第一位领导华尔街银行的女性，使得她的任命带上了一个星号。 “玻璃悬崖”是用来描述女性被任命到处于深度危机中公司高层岗位的现象。

Its prize for this miserable drubbing is not a participation trophy, but a consent order from regulators instructing it to improve internal oversight and change how it measures risk. The firm became the laughing-stock of Wall Street in 2020 when it accidentally wired $894m to creditors of Revlon, a failing company. That Jane Fraser became the first woman to run a Wall Street bank following the mess attached an asterisk to her appointment. “Glass cliff” is a term used to describe the phenomenon of women being appointed to top jobs at companies in deep crisis.

似乎弗雷泽注定要从悬崖上跌下来。一些花旗银行工作人员抱怨说她是一名顾问，而不是真正的银行家，因为她在2004年加入花旗银行之前曾在麦肯锡工作了十年。那些在2021年第一天购买她的股票的人到去年九月中旬已经吃下了年化回报率-15%的苦果。但是一个了不起的转变现在似乎已经开始。弗雷泽于9月13日宣布了一项重组计划。随后，她提出了在2026年底前裁减2万人的计划，其中已有7,000人被裁掉。投资者似乎重新开始对这家公司产生信心。花旗银行的股价在九月至三月间上涨超过50％，这意味着弗雷泽现在似乎正走上一条比“首位女性做某事”更难达到的道路。她可能会成为扭转花旗银行局面的银行家。

It seemed as if Ms Fraser was bound to fall from that cliff. Some Citi staff grumbled that she was a consultant, not a real banker, because she spent a decade at McKinsey before joining the firm in 2004. Those who bought shares on her first day in 2021 were choking down annualised returns of -15% by mid-September last year. But a remarkable turnaround now appears under way. On September 13th Ms Fraser announced a restructuring. She later laid out plans to sack 20,000 people by the end of 2026, some 7,000 of whom have already been shown the door. Investors seem to be rediscovering their faith in the firm. Citi’s share price rose by more than 50% between September and March, meaning that Ms Fraser now appears to be on the path to an accolade far more elusive than “first woman to do something”. She may become the banker who turned around Citi.

要理解这将是一个什么样的成就，请看一下1998年银行的创建。花旗银行的雄心壮志是要成为“每个人、到处的一切”，这是埃内斯托·托雷斯·坎图在这家银行工作了22年并负责其国际业务的记忆。这是桑迪·威尔（Sandy Weill）的雄心壮志，他曾是华尔街的传奇人物。威尔先生通过购并金融机构形成了“金融超市”。在2000年，花旗银行以其资本基础的规模而言是世界上最大的银行。

To understand what an achievement that would be, look to the bank’s creation in 1998. Citi was going to be “everything to everyone, everywhere”, recalls Ernesto Torres Cantú, who has worked at the bank for 22 years and runs its international business. That was its ambition under Sandy Weill, who was a legend on Wall Street. Mr Weill had bought and merged financial institutions to form a “financial supermarket”. In 2000 Citi was the largest bank in the world, as measured by its capital base.

事后缺陷显而易见。业务之间的协调从未实现。相反，花旗银行变得臃肿。复杂的管理层阻碍了事情的发生——在2000年代中期，发生了大量不良抵押贷款。在2008年，花旗银行需要的纾困资金比其他任何银行都要多。它裁员了75,000人，占员工总数四分之一。其股价从2007年的500美元以上跌至2009年的不到一美元。金融危机后，花旗银行的高管承诺简化公司。资产被出售。但是，“在这次之前的所有其他重组中，都有希望以某种方式保留‘在所有业务中涉足所有市场’的理念，”托雷斯·坎图说。

Flaws are clear in hindsight. Harmonies between businesses never materialised. Instead, Citi became bloated. Layers of management obscured what was happening—which was, in the mid-2000s, a vast amount of bad mortgage lending. In 2008 Citi required more bail-out money than any other bank. It laid off 75,000 people, a quarter of its workforce. Its share price, which at over $500 in 2007 had valued the firm at $270bn, had fallen to less than a dollar by 2009. After the financial crisis, Citi’s bosses promised to simplify the firm. Assets were sold. But “all of the other restructurings we have made, until this one, wanted to preserve that idea [of being in all businesses in all markets] in some way or another,” says Mr Torres Cantú.

弗雷泽已经一劳永逸地放弃了这个使命。她的第一个行动是概述出售13家消费者银行的计划。九家已经关闭，三家正在清理退市。只有在波兰的一个银行由于乌克兰战争而停滞，还未处理。

Ms Fraser has ditched the mission once and for all. Her first act was to outline plans to sell 13 consumer banks. Nine are gone; three are being wound down. Only one in Poland, where the process has stalled owing to war in Ukraine, remains.

这些裁员为下一阶段——重组铺平了道路。纷繁复杂的报告线路已被五个业务取代，并直接向弗雷泽汇报：市场部门，包括债务和股票交易；银行业务，包括投资银行；服务业务，包括财务管理和证券服务；财富管理；以及美国消费者银行和信用卡业务。花旗银行现在详细说明了分配给每项业务的资本及其回报，以及它们的收入和利润。

These cuts have paved the way for the next phase: restructuring. A tangled mess of reporting lines has been replaced by five businesses that report directly to Ms Fraser: markets, which includes debt and stock trading; banking, which houses investment banking; services, which is where Treasury management and securities services are located; wealth management; and the American consumer-bank and credit-card businesses. Citi now details the capital allocated to each of these and their returns, as well as their revenues and profits.

这次重新组织已经减少了繁文缛节。托雷斯·坎图说：“如果你想与客户做出决策，你需要得到公司银行链的批准，然后移交给地理管理的批准，然后你必须得到法人实体的批准，再从地区银行总裁那里得到批准。”这家公司裁减了数千个岗位。它还揭示了业绩。公司首席财务官马克·梅森说：“我们希望这些业务负责人相互竞争，以达到他们的回报目标。”“现在一切都是公开的。”显而易见的是，花旗银行拥有一颗明珠：其服务部门，其利用了公司资本六分之一，在过去一年中回报了20-25％的资本（不包括2023年第四季度），其他业务的回报则很差，最好也就是普通水平。

The reorganisation has cut red tape. Before, “if you wanted to get something done with a client, you had to get the approval of the corporate-bank chain, and then you would move to the approval from the geography management and then you had to get the approval from the legal entity, from the CEO of the regional bank,” says Mr Torres Cantú. It has cut thousands of jobs. And it has also shed light on performance. “We want these business heads to compete with one another to achieve their return targets,” says Mark Mason, chief financial officer at the firm. “Everything is out in the open now.” What has become clear is that Citi has a crown jewel: its services arm, which uses a sixth of the firm’s capital and has returned 20-25% on that capital over the past year (excluding the fourth quarter of 2023, which included significant restructuring costs). Other business returns are poor or, at best, average.

弗雷泽女士想要一颗更大的皇家珠宝。由于花旗银行是一家全球性银行，它在服务跨国公司客户时具有优势。如今，该银行希望获得更多的中小市场客户。弗雷泽女士还希望扭转两个不景气部门——银行业务和财富管理业务的局面，为此她引入了新鲜血液。在九月份，曾在美国银行负责财富管理的安迪·希格加入了花旗银行。而摩根大通投行业务主管维斯·拉加万则将在夏季加入。

Ms Fraser wants a bigger crown jewel. Because Citi is a global bank, it has an advantage with corporate clients that operate across borders. The bank now hopes to gain smaller mid-market customers. Ms Fraser would also like to turn around the two laggards—banking and wealth management—for which she has brought in new blood. Andy Sieg, who ran wealth management at Bank of America, joined in September. Vis Raghavan, the head of JPMorgan Chase’s investment-banking business, will join in the summer.

投资者们感到高兴。自九月份以来，花旗银行的股价上涨了几乎是美国其他大银行的两倍。但这些变革会带来好结果吗？花旗银行仍然受到监管审查。该公司于4月12日发布的第一季度业绩一般；其股价下跌。投资者现在可以看到财富管理和银行业务表现不佳，并不意味着这些业务会改善。而人才是昂贵的。在公司解雇了数千人的同时，希格先生在工作的头三个月就获得了1100万美元的报酬。

Investors are delighted. Citi’s share price has risen by almost twice as much as those of America’s other large banks since September. But will the changes produce the goods? Citi is still under regulatory scrutiny. The firm’s results from the first quarter, released on April 12th, were mediocre; its share price slipped. Just because investors can now see how poorly wealth management and banking are performing does not mean those businesses will improve. And talent is expensive. As the firm sacked thousands, Mr Sieg was paid $11m for his first three months of work.

尽管如此，人们感觉花旗银行终于在发生改变。公司运营长阿南德·塞尔瓦反思了该公司放弃全球零售银行业务的决定，回忆起“多年前我们与所有这些大型区域和全球银行竞争”。但随着监管的变化，许多银行收拾包袱离开了，留下了当地银行作为竞争对手。“你要决定在哪里集中精力…并建立规模，”他说。花旗银行将不再是到处都有的、面向所有人的一家银行。 ■

There is nevertheless a sense that Citi is at last changing. Reflecting on the firm’s decision to abandon its global consumer-banking businesses, Anand Selva, the firm’s chief operating officer, recalls how “years ago we were competing with all of these big regional and global banks”. But as regulations changed, many packed up, leaving just local banks as competitors. “You decide where you want to focus…and build scale,” he says. Citi will no longer be everything, to everyone, everywhere. ■

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金融与经济 | 自由交易 (Finance and economics | Free exchange)

IMF能解决贫困世界的债务危机吗? (Can the IMF solve the poor world’s debt crisis?)

如果需要为提供救济而排除中国，该基金将这样做。 (The fund will freeze out China if that is what it takes to offer relief)

距离第一个贫穷国家因新冠肺炎支出飙升和投资者将资本撤出风险市场而陷入违约已经有四年了。富裕世界的较高利率自两年前开始给财政困难的政府带来更大压力。但在本周在华盛顿特区举行的国际货币基金组织和世界银行的春季会议上，许多世界政策制定者似乎表现得好像自上世纪80年代以来，按照受影响世界人口的比例来看，自最糟债务危机已经结束。毕竟，世界上最贫穷的国家去年的经济增长率达到了体面的4%。一些国家，比如肯尼亚，甚至又开始从国际市场借贷。

It is now four years since the first poor countries were plunged into default because of spiralling costs from covid-19 spending and investors pulling capital from risky markets. It is two years since higher interest rates in the rich world began to put even more pressure on cash-strapped governments. But at the spring meetings of the IMF and the World Bank, held in Washington, DC, this week, many of the world’s policymakers were acting as if the worst debt crisis since the 1980s, by portion of world population affected, had come to an end. After all, the poorest countries in the world grew at a respectable 4% last year. Some, such as Kenya, are even borrowing from international markets again.

事实上，危机仍在持续。破产的政府仍未设法重组债务，并走出违约。因此，他们陷入了僵局。随着时间推移，更多、更大的国家可能加入进来。因此，在春季会议中举行大使晚宴和智囊团聚会之间，国际货币基金组织的董事会宣布了一项应对问题的激进新举措。

In reality, the crisis rolls on. The governments that went bust still have not managed to restructure their debts and dig out of default. As such, they are stuck in limbo. Over time more—and bigger—countries could join them. So in between the spring meetings’ embassy dinners and think-tank soirées, the IMF’s board announced a radical new step to deal with the problem.

解决债务危机困难的核心问题在于，与过去相比，债权人数量众多且彼此共同点较少。在70多年的债务重组中，西方国家和银行们形成了一种做事方式。现在，决策需要新一批债权人的同意，其中一些债权人认为没有理由配合。过程的每一部分，即使曾经是一句橡皮图章，也可能受到长时间的谈判。

The core of the difficulty in resolving debt crises has been that there are more creditors, with less in common, than in the past. Over 70 years of debt restructurings, Western countries and banks came to do things a certain way. Now decisions require the assent of a new group of lenders, some of which see no reason to comply. Each part of the process, even if it was once a rubber stamp, can be subject to a protracted negotiation.

新债权人中最为重要的是中国。尽管中国现在是世界上最大的双边债权人，但其尚未减记任何一笔贷款。印度将2012年到2022年间的年度海外放贷翻了一番；它在斯里兰卡陷入危机后不久即拨款33亿美元。阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯也在其中。两国向埃及提供的贷款总额已超过300亿美元。海湾国家偏好的方法是向接受方的中央银行存入美元——这种形式的放贷从未在进行负债重组之前实施过。

Chief among the new lenders is China. Even though the country is now the world’s biggest bilateral creditor, it has yet to write down a single loan. India has doubled its annual overseas lending from 2012 to 2022; it sent $3.3bn to Sri Lanka soon after the country was plunged into crisis. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are in the group, too. They have together lent more than $30bn to Egypt. The Gulf creditors’ preferred method is to deposit dollars at the recipient’s central bank—a form of lending so novel that it has never been subject to a debt restructuring before.

因此，自新冠疫情爆发以来寻求重组的七个国家至今无法就如何减少欠款达成协议。只有两个小国取得了进展：乍得延长了债务期限，而苏里南与所有债权人达成了协议，但最大的债权人中国除外。赞比亚已经等待了四年。由于没有任何债权人希望比其他人得到更糟的交易条件，四十年来最严重的债务危机期间基本没有本金减免。四年前，G20国家签署了《共同框架》协议，同意在重组过程中平等减少债务，但债权人在慷慨度问题上产生了分歧。

As a result, the seven countries that have sought restructuring since the start of the pandemic have been unable to strike a deal to whittle down what they owe. Only two small countries have made progress: Chad, which rescheduled rather than reduced debts, and Suriname, which reached a deal with all its creditors but the biggest, China. Zambia has waited four years for a deal. Since no creditor wants a worse bargain than any other, there has been next to no principal debt relief during the worst debt crisis in four decades. Four years ago G20 countries signed up to the Common Framework, an agreement to take equal cuts in restructurings, but creditors have split over the degree of generosity needed.

通常情况下不能向负债过高的国家提供贷款的国际货币基金组织一直束手无策。然而，4月16日它迈出了一步。它表示将向那些违约但尚未就重组所有债务达成协议的国家提供贷款。这项政策被称为“违约中贷款”。

The IMF, which usually cannot lend to countries with unsustainably high debts, has been unable to do much. Yet on April 16th it made a move. It said it would lend to countries that have defaulted on debts but have not negotiated a deal to restructure all their debts. The policy is known as “lending into arrears”.

过去，担心拿不回现金的基金很少会向违约中的国家提供贷款，而且只在仍在就重组进行斗争的债权人的允许下这样做。现在，它所要求的仅仅是借款国和愿意合作的债权人承诺，其现金注入不会用于偿还持有不同意见的债权人。国际货币基金组织的经济学家长期以来一直担心这一举措会激怒问题债权人，而这些债权人同时也是对该基金有利害关系的国家。看来基金的耐心已经耗尽：官员们希望推动债务重组进程。

In the past the fund, worried about getting its cash back, has lent into arrears sparingly and only with the permission of creditors still tussling over restructuring. Now all it is asking for is a promise from borrowing countries and co-operative creditors that its cash injections will not be used to pay off the holdouts. The imf’s economists have long feared that such a step would antagonise problem creditors, which are also countries with stakes in the fund itself. It seems the fund’s patience has run out: officials want to get debt restructuring moving.

这项新政策有潜力对持有人施加纪律。理论上，重组能够成功是因为减轻借款人的负担会最大程度地提高债权人获得部分资金甚至可能回收全部资金的机会。基金向违约中提供贷款会加强遵守规则的激励，因为拖延谈判的债权人面临得不到任何回报的风险。他们将成为僵局中的人，而其他人则达成协议并继续下去。此外，该政策还增强了债务人的议价能力。过去，他们可能担心与中国等国走开，后者在违约后仍是紧急资金的容易来源。如今，如果他们希望这样做，他们将有一个替代债权人，即国际货币基金组织。

The new policy has the potential to impose discipline on the holdouts. In theory, restructurings work because easing the burden on borrowers maximises creditors’ chances of getting some—perhaps most—of their money back. The fund lending into arrears sharpens the incentive to comply because lenders who hold up negotiations face the prospect of not getting anything. They would be the ones frozen in limbo, while everyone else strikes a deal and carries on. The policy also strengthens the hand of debtors. In the past they may have feared walking away from their debts to, say, China, which is an easy source of emergency cash even after a default. Now if they wish to do so, they will have an alternative lender in the form of the imf.

让现金流动肯定对那些饱受困扰国家的人口有好处。这样做也可能使得国际货币基金组织(IMF)保持诚实。其债务可持续性分析被用作重组的基准，因此可能会有倾向于对可持续性过于乐观，以避免将借款人推向重组的泥潭。在一个不依赖于淡化贫困国家问题以避免不可能的重组的过程中，该基金可能会成为更好的中介，区分哪些国家需要债务减记，哪些只需要更多的流动性来偿还下一笔款项。

Getting cash flowing would certainly be good for populations of the troubled countries. Doing so might also keep the fund honest. Its debt-sustainability analyses are used as a benchmark for restructurings, and it may have an incentive to be too optimistic about sustainability, to avoid pushing a borrower into restructuring limbo. In a process that does not depend on playing down poor countries’ problems so as to avoid impossible restructurings, the fund will probably become a better broker, distinguishing between countries that need debt write-downs and those that just need a little more liquidity to make their next payment.

问题在于国际货币基金组织是否能承受成本。其威胁只有在选择利用其新权力时才会让债权人屈服。但在华盛顿，官员们仍然担心激怒新债权人，特别是中国，基金看重与中国的关系。他们可能会完全抛弃合作性重组。一些借款人可能会远离国际货币基金组织，转而从其他地方寻求紧急援助。

The question is whether the IMF can stomach the costs. Its threat will only bring creditors into line if it chooses to make use of its new powers. But in Washington officials still worry about aggravating the newer creditors, particularly China, with which the fund prizes its relationship. They might turn their back on co-operative restructurings altogether. Some borrowers could walk away from the IMF and take bail-outs from elsewhere.

然而，最终，这个基金可能别无选择。太多国家处于危机之中。一些避免违约的大型发展中国家正逐渐接近悬崖边缘。为了避免数亿人受到灾难性影响，国际金融家需要一种办法让政府在埃及或巴基斯坦等国陷入破产之前摆脱违约。透支借款是目前最好的工具。■

In the end, though, the fund may have little choice. Too many countries are in crisis. A clutch of big developing countries that have avoided default are teetering closer than ever to the edge. To avoid a catastrophe for hundreds of millions of people, international financiers need a way to get governments out of default before a country like Egypt or Pakistan goes under. Lending into arrears is the best available tool. ■

更多精彩内容，关注我们的经济学专栏《自由交换》：如果技术解决了一切，人类会做些什么？（4月9日）丹尼尔·卡尼曼是戏弄问题的大师（4月4日）印度如何成为亚洲之虎（3月27日）*

Read more from Free exchange, our column on economics:What will humans do if technology solves everything? (Apr 9th)Daniel Kahneman was a master of teasing questions (Apr 4th)How India could become an Asian tiger (Mar 27th)

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科学技术 | AI的下一个超级模特 (Science and technology | AI’s next top model)

大型语言模型变得越来越庞大且效果更佳 (Large language models are getting bigger and better)

它们能永远保持进步吗？ (Can they keep improving forever?)

在人工智能领域，技术以光速从引人注目变为老生常谈。仅仅18个月前，OpenAI的聊天机器人ChatGPT发布时掀起了一场人工智能狂潮。但如今，它的功能已变得司空见惯。多家公司（如Anthropic、谷歌和Meta）随后推出了自己版本的模型（分别是克劳德、Gemini和Llama），在多个方面对ChatGPT进行了改进。

In AI-land, technologies move from remarkable to old hat at the speed of light. Only 18 months ago the release of ChatGPT, OpenAI’s chatbot, launched an AI frenzy. Today its powers have become commonplace. Several firms (such as Anthropic, Google and Meta) have since unveiled versions of their own models (Claude, Gemini and Llama), improving upon ChatGPT in a variety of ways.

这种对新技术的渴望只会加速发展。Anthropic在3月推出了克劳德 3，击败了OpenAI和谷歌之前的顶级模型，占据了各种榜单的榜首。4月9日，OpenAI通过调整其模型重新夺回了王冠（在某些指标上）。4月18日，Meta发布了Llama 3，初步结果表明这是迄今为止能力最强的开放模型。据传闻，OpenAI在今年某个时候发布GPT-5时将掀起轩然大波，该模型可能具有超越当前任何大型语言模型（LLM）的功能。如果传闻属实，下一代模型将更加引人瞩目，例如能够执行多步任务，而不仅仅是响应提示，或者仔细分析复杂问题，而不是机械地给出第一个可用的答案。

That hunger for the new has only accelerated. In March Anthropic launched Claude 3, which bested the previous top models from OpenAI and Google on various leaderboards. On April 9th OpenAI reclaimed the crown (on some measures) by tweaking its model. On April 18th Meta released Llama 3, which early results suggest is the most capable open model to date. OpenAI is likely to make a splash sometime this year when it releases GPT-5, which may have capabilities beyond any current large language model (LLM). If the rumours are to be believed, the next generation of models will be even more remarkable—able to perform multi-step tasks, for instance, rather than merely responding to prompts, or analysing complex questions carefully instead of blurting out the first algorithmically available answer.

对于那些认为这只是传统科技炒作的人来说，请考虑这一点：投资者对支持下一代模型是非常认真的。预计GPT-5和其他下一代模型的培训成本将达到数十亿美元。据报道，OpenAI还正在与科技巨头微软合作建设一个价值1000亿美元的新数据中心。仅从数字上看，未来似乎将拥有无限的指数增长。这与许多人工智能研究人员认为的“规模假设”一致，即当前LLM的架构正在实现惊人的进步。根据这个假设，要超越人类能力，需要的仅仅是更多的数据和更强大的电脑芯片。

For those who believe that this is the usual tech hype, consider this: investors are deadly serious about backing the next generation of models. GPT-5 and other next-gen models are expected to cost billions of dollars to train. OpenAI is also reportedly partnering with Microsoft, a tech giant, to build a new $100bn data centre. Based on the numbers alone, it seems as though the future will hold limitless exponential growth. This chimes with a view shared by many AI researchers called the “scaling hypothesis”, namely that the architecture of current LLMs is on the path to unlocking phenomenal progress. All that is needed to exceed human abilities, according to the hypothesis, is more data and more powerful computer chips.

然而，仔细观察技术前沿，一些艰巨的障碍变得明显。

Look closer at the technical frontier, however, and some daunting hurdles become evident.

数据很可能是最迫在眉睫的瓶颈。研究机构Epoch AI估计，公共互联网上的高质量文本数据将在2026年枯竭。这导致研究人员匆忙寻找思路。一些实验室正在转向私人互联网，购买数据经纪和新闻网站的数据。其他人则转向互联网上大量的音频和视觉数据，可以用来训练规模更大的模型数十年。视频在教授人工智能模型周围世界的物理原理方面特别有用。如果一个模型可以观察到球在空中飞行，它可能更容易地推断出描述抛体运动的数学方程。像GPT-4和Gemini这样的领先模型现在是“多模态”的，能够处理各种类型的数据。

Data may well present the most immediate bottleneck. Epoch AI, a research outfit, estimates the well of high-quality textual data on the public internet will run dry by 2026. This has left researchers scrambling for ideas. Some labs are turning to the private web, buying data from brokers and news websites. Others are turning to the internet’s vast quantities of audio and visual data, which could be used to train ever-bigger models for decades. Video can be particularly useful in teaching AI models about the physics of the world around them. If a model can observe a ball flying through the air, it might more easily work out the mathematical equation that describes the projectile’s motion. Leading models like GPT-4 and Gemini are now “multimodal”, capable of dealing with various types of data.

当数据无法找到时，就可以创造数据。像Scale AI和Surge AI这样的公司已建立了大量人员网络来生成和注释数据，包括解决数学或生物问题的博士研究者。一家领先人工智能初创公司的高管估计，这每年为人工智能实验室带来数亿美元的成本。一种更廉价的方法是生成“合成数据”，其中一个LLM制作了数十亿页的文本用于训练第二个模型。虽然这种方法可能会遇到困难：用这种方式训练的模型可能会丢失过去的知识并生成乏味的回答。训练人工智能模型在合成数据上的更有效方法是让它们通过合作或竞争学习。研究人员称之为“自博弈”。2017年，搜索巨头Google的人工智能实验室DeepMind开发了一个名为AlphaGo的模型，经过自我训练后，击败了围棋人类世界冠军。如今Google和其他公司在它们最新的LLM上使用类似的技术。

When data can no longer be found, it can be made. Companies like Scale AI and Surge AI have built large networks of people to generate and annotate data, including PhD researchers solving problems in maths or biology. One executive at a leading AI startup estimates this is costing AI labs hundreds of millions of dollars per year. A cheaper approach involves generating “synthetic data” in which one LLM makes billions of pages of text to train a second model. Though that method can run into trouble: models trained like this can lose past knowledge and generate uncreative responses. A more fruitful way to train AI models on synthetic data is to have them learn through collaboration or competition. Researchers call this “self-play”. In 2017 Google DeepMind, the search giant’s AI lab, developed a model called AlphaGo that, after training against itself, beat the human world champion in the game of Go. Google and other firms now use similar techniques on their latest LLMs.

将自博弈这样的思想拓展到新领域是研究的热点。但大多数现实世界的问题 — 从经营一家企业到成为一名出色的医生 — 都比游戏更为复杂，没有明确的获胜步骤。这就是为什么对于这些复杂领域，仍需要来自能区分优质和劣质回答的人群的训练模型数据。这反过来会减缓进展速度。

Extending ideas like self-play to new domains is hot topic of research. But most real-world problems—from running a business to being a good doctor—are more complex than a game, without clear-cut winning moves. This is why, for such complex domains, data to train models is still needed from people who can differentiate between good and bad quality responses. This in turn slows things down.

更好的硬件是实现更强大模型的另一途径。最初设计用于视频游戏的图形处理单元（GPU）如今已成为大多数人工智能程序员的首选芯片，因为它们能够并行运行高强度计算。解锁新能力的一种方式可能在于使用专门为人工智能模型设计的芯片。总部位于硅谷的芯片制造商Cerebras在三月推出了一个产品，其晶体管数量是最大GPU的50倍。模型构建通常受制于数据需要在训练过程中不断加载到GPU上。相比之下，Cerebras的巨大芯片内置了内存。

Better hardware is another route to more powerful models. Graphics-processing units (GPUs), originally designed for video-gaming, have become the go-to chip for most AI programmers thanks to their ability to run intensive calculations in parallel. One way to unlock new capabilities may lie in using chips designed specifically for AI models. Cerebras, a chipmaker based in Silicon Valley, released a product in March containing 50 times as many transistors as the largest GPU. Model-building is usually hampered by data needing to be continuously loaded on and off the GPUs as the model is trained. Cerebras’s giant chip, by contrast, has memory built in.

新模型可以利用这些进展，会更加可靠，更擅长处理用户提出的棘手请求。 通过扩大“上下文窗口”的方式，用户在提出请求时可以输入更多文本、图像或视频，从而更好地利用这些进展。将上下文窗口扩大以允许用户上传额外相关信息似乎也是遏制幻觉的有效方式，幻觉是指AI模型倾向于用虚构信息自信地回答问题。

New models that can take advantage of these advances will be more reliable and better at handling tricky requests from users. One way this may happen is through larger “context windows”, the amount of text, image or video that a user can feed into a model when making requests. Enlarging context windows to allow users to upload additional relevant information also seems to be an effective way of curbing hallucination, the tendency of AI models to confidently answer questions with made-up information.

然而，尽管一些模型制造商争相获取更多资源，另一些人看到了放大假设正遇到麻烦。 物理限制——比如内存不足、能源成本上升——对更大模型设计施加了实际限制。更令人担忧的是，扩大上下文窗口并不足以继续取得进展。Meta现任AI明星头脑Yann LeCun等许多人认为，当前AI模型的限制不能通过更多相同的东西修复。

But while some model-makers race for more resources, others see signs that the scaling hypothesis is running into trouble. Physical constraints—insufficient memory, say, or rising energy costs—place practical limitations on bigger model designs. More worrying, it is not clear that expanding context windows will be enough for continued progress. Yann LeCun, a star AI boffin now at Meta, is one of many who believe the limitations in the current AI models cannot be fixed with more of the same.

因此，一些科学家正转向人工智能领域一个久经考验的灵感源泉—人脑。 普通成年人的推理和规划能力远远优于最优秀的LLMs，尽管使用的功耗和数据远远少于后者。华盛顿大学的计算机科学家Pedro Domingos表示：“AI需要更好的学习算法，我们知道这是可能的，因为你的大脑具备这些能力。”

Some scientists are therefore turning to a long-standing source of inspiration in the field of AI—the human brain. The average adult can reason and plan far better than the best LLMs, despite using less power and much less data. “AI needs better learning algorithms, and we know they’re possible because your brain has them,” says Pedro Domingos, a computer scientist at the University of Washington.

他说，其中一个问题是LLMs用来学习的算法，称为反向传播。 所有LLMs都是排列成层的神经网络，它们接收输入并将其转化为预测输出。当LLM处于学习阶段时，它会将其预测与训练数据中的真实数据进行比较。如果二者有分歧，算法会对网络的每一层进行微小调整，以改进将来的预测。这使得计算密集且渐进式。

One problem, he says, is the algorithm by which LLMs learn, called backpropagation. All LLMs are neural networks arranged in layers, which receive inputs and transform them to predict outputs. When the LLM is in its learning phase, it compares its predictions against the version of reality available in its training data. If these diverge, the algorithm makes small tweaks to each layer of the network to improve future predictions. That makes it computationally intensive and incremental.

An image of an eye dissipating from a computer chip

今天的LLMs中的神经网络结构也是低效的。 自2017年以来，大多数AI模型使用一种被称为变压器的神经网络架构（GPT中的“T”），这使它们能够在数据集中远离位置之间建立关系。以前的方法很难建立这样的远程联系。例如，如果要求基于变压器的模型写一首歌的歌词，它可以在结尾部分即兴编排之前许多段落的内容，而更原始的模型在完成歌曲之前就已经忘记了开头部分。变压器还可以同时在许多处理器上运行，大大减少了训练时间。

The neural networks in today’s LLMs are also inefficiently structured. Since 2017 most AI models have used a type of neural-network architecture known as a transformer (the “T” in GPT), which allowed them to establish relationships between bits of data that are far apart within a data set. Previous approaches struggled to make such long-range connections. If a transformer-based model were asked to write the lyrics to a song, for example, it could, in its coda, riff on lines from many verses earlier, whereas a more primitive model would have forgotten all about the start by the time it had got to the end of the song. Transformers can also be run on many processors at once, significantly reducing the time it takes to train them.

然而，卡内基梅隆大学的计算机科学家Albert Gu仍认为变压器的时代可能很快结束。 扩大上下文窗口的计算效率非常低：输入加倍时，处理所需的计算量增加了四倍。与普林斯顿大学的Tri Dao一起，Gu博士提出了一种名为Mamba的另类架构。类比来说，如果变压器一次读完一本书的所有页面，那么Mamba会顺序地阅读，随着进展不断更新其世界观。这不仅更有效，还更接近人类理解工作的方式。

Albert Gu, a computer scientist at Carnegie Mellon University, nevertheless thinks the transformers’ time may soon be up. Scaling up their context windows is highly computationally inefficient: as the input doubles, the amount of computation required to process it quadruples. Alongside Tri Dao of Princeton University, Dr Gu has come up with an alternative architecture called Mamba. If, by analogy, a transformer reads all of a book’s pages at once, Mamba reads them sequentially, updating its worldview as it progresses. This is not only more efficient, but also more closely approximates the way human comprehension works.

LLMs还需要在推理和规划方面有所帮助。 OpenAI的研究员Andrej Karpathy在最近的一次演讲中解释说，当前的LLMs只能进行“系统1”思维。在人类中，这是涉及即时决策的自动思维模式。相比之下，“系统2”思维更为缓慢、更为有意识，涉及迭代。对于AI系统，这可能需要一种称为搜索的算法——一种能够在选择最佳行动之前概述和检查许多不同行动方案的能力。这在精神上与游戏AI模型探索多个选项后选择最佳移动的方式相似。

LLMs also need help getting better at reasoning and planning. Andrej Karpathy, a researcher formerly at OpenAI, explained in a recent talk that current LLMs are only capable of “system 1” thinking. In humans, this is the automatic mode of thought involved in snap decisions. In contrast, “system 2” thinking is slower, more conscious and involves iteration. For AI systems, that may require algorithms capable of something called search—an ability to outline and examine many different courses of action before selecting the best one. This would be similar in spirit to how game-playing AI models can choose the best moves after exploring several options.

通过搜索进行高级规划是目前的重点。 例如，Meta的LeCun博士正试图将推理和预测能力直接编程到AI系统中。在2022年，他提出了一个名为“联合嵌入预测架构”（JEPA）的框架，该框架经过训练能够一次预测比当前生成式AI模型更大的文本或图像块。这使其能够专注于数据集的全局特征。例如，在分析动物图像时，基于JEPA的模型可能更快地关注大小、形状和颜色，而不是个别毛发斑块。希望通过概括事物，JEPA能够更有效地学习，而生成式模型会被无关紧要的细节所分散注意力。

Advanced planning via search is the focus of much current effort. Meta’s Dr LeCun, for example, is trying to program the ability to reason and make predictions directly into an AI system. In 2022 he proposed a framework called “Joint Embedding Predictive Architecture” (JEPA), which is trained to predict larger chunks of text or images in a single step than current generative-AI models. That lets it focus on global features of a data set. When analysing animal images, for example, a JEPA-based model may more quickly focus on size, shape and colour rather than individual patches of fur. The hope is that by abstracting things out JEPA learns more efficiently than generative models, which get distracted by irrelevant details.

实验中使用 Mamba 或 JEPA 等方法仍然是个例外。在数据和计算能力成为不可逾越的障碍之前，基于transformer 模型将继续受到青睐。但随着工程师们将它们推向越来越复杂的应用，人类专业知识在数据标记中仍然至关重要。这可能意味着进展速度比以前慢。为了让一代新的 AI 模型像 2022 年的 ChatGPT 一样震撼世界，可能需要进行根本性的突破。 ■

Experiments with approaches like Mamba or JEPA remain the exception. Until data and computing power become insurmountable hurdles, transformer-based models will stay in favour. But as engineers push them into ever more complex applications, human expertise will remain essential in the labelling of data. This could mean slower progress than before. For a new generation of AI models to stun the world as ChatGPT did in 2022, fundamental breakthroughs may be needed. ■

回到目录

科学技术 | 你会找谁？ (Science and technology | Who you gonna call?)

赶走蝗虫的方式正迎来升级 (Locust-busting is getting a upgrade)

从农药到无人机，新技术正在帮助赢得一场古老的战斗。 (From pesticides to drones, new technologies are helping win an age-old battle)

在《出埃及记》中降于埃及人的灾祸清单上，仅有黑暗和死亡排名高于蝗虫。这一排名是恰当的。如今，被视为全球最危险的迁徙害虫的是Schistocerca gregaria，也被称为沙漠蝗虫。以所食植被的数量来衡量，一小群蝗虫在一天内可摧毁相当于3.5万人的食物。在食品安全脆弱的地区，影响可能是毁灭性的。爆发是令人遗憾地常见。截至2024年4月，粮食和农业组织（FAO）这一机构正在监测红海附近国家有五起S. gregaria的活跃爆发。

IN THE LIST of plagues inflicted upon the people of Egypt in the Book of Exodus, only darkness and death get higher billing than locusts. That ranking is apt. Today, Schistocerca gregaria, also known as the desert locust, is considered the most dangerous migratory pest in the world. Measured by the volume of foliage consumed, a small swarm can devour as much food in a single day as 35,000 people. In places with fragile food security, the effect can be devastating. Outbreaks are regrettably common. As of April 2024 the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), an agency, was monitoring five active outbreaks of S. gregaria in countries near the Red Sea.

问题在于蝗虫群迅速增长。在合适的条件下，1000只蝗虫在三个月内就能增长至20000只，一年内增至1.6亿只。上次规模较大的激增始于2018年的阿拉伯半岛，持续三年，影响到坦桑尼亚和伊朗等遥远国家。幸运的是，这次入侵也带来了对新的捕蝗工具的投资。其中一些现在开始见效。

The problem is that swarms grow fast. In the right conditions, 1,000 locusts can become 20,000 within three months, and 160m within a year. The last big upsurge, which began in the Arabian peninsula in 2018, lasted three years and affected countries as far afield as Tanzania and Iran. Fortunately, this invasion also drove investment into new locust-hunting tools. Some of this is now beginning to pay off.

沙漠蝗虫栖息在从非洲西海岸的毛里塔尼亚一直到印度的干旱地区。恶劣的环境条件，缺乏水源和植被，通常能控制它们的数量。但人类活动开始使它们的生存环境变得更加适宜。气候变化让沙漠降下更多暴雨，在意料之外的地方出现绿色植被。与此同时，一度太潮湿以至于蝗虫无法在其中产卵的森林环境正逐渐经过沙漠化转变为更加干燥的栖息地，这使蝗虫得以茁壮成长。亚利桑那州立大学的艾丽安·西斯称，加上气温升高，沙漠蝗虫的未来看起来乐观。

The desert locust lives in the belt of drylands that stretches from Mauritania, on the west coast of Africa, to India. The harsh conditions, low in water and vegetation, normally keep its numbers down. But human activity is starting to make their lives more comfortable. Climate change is bringing heavier storms to deserts, driving greenery in unexpected places. At the same time, forest environments that were once too damp for locusts to lay eggs in are being transformed through desertification into drier habitats where they can thrive. Add in hotter temperatures, says Arianne Cease of Arizona State University, and the future looks rosy for the desert locust.

控制这一害虫依赖于捕蝗者在沙漠中发现虫巢并及时清除。在雨后，这些侦查员巡逻已知热点地区，他们用手或卡车向较小的虫巢喷洒杀虫剂，通过飞机向较大的虫巢喷洒。但这项工作耗费时间和资源，而且很少是全面的，特别是在资源有限或持续冲突的国家。例如，2018年，一对旋风袭击了也门偏远沙漠地区。由于内战使政府无力和分心，三代沙漠蝗虫得以不受干扰地繁殖。它们的后代侵袭了12个国家。

Controlling this pest depends on locust hunters spotting dens in the desert and snuffing them out early. Patrolling known hotspots in the aftermath of rainstorms, these scouts spray pesticide on smaller dens by hand or truck, and douse larger ones by aeroplane. But this work burns up time and resources, and is rarely comprehensive—especially in countries with limited means or ongoing conflicts. In 2018, for example, a pair of cyclones lashed rain upon a remote Yemeni desert. As civil war had left the government powerless and distracted, three generations of desert locusts were left to breed unobserved. Their descendants invaded 12 countries.

结果灾难也促使了创新。FAO的基思·克雷斯曼估计在这一激增中产生了16项重要发展。其中包括利用数据使远征更加高效的工具。沙漠蝗虫是习性极强的生物：雌性蝗虫喜欢在湿润但不过湿的土壤中产卵，幼虫被包围着充足的植被更容易存活。遥感技术的进步意味着有些环境特征从太空中变得更容易侦测。

The resulting disaster also bred innovation. Keith Cressman of the FAO estimates 16 significant developments have resulted from the upsurge. Among them are tools that use data to make expeditions more efficient. Desert locusts are creatures of habit: females like to lay eggs in soil that is moist, but not sodden, and juveniles are more likely to survive if they are surrounded by ample foliage to eat. Advances in remote sensing mean that some of these environmental features are getting easier to detect from space.

通过将卫星读数与地面传感器和大量历史记录相结合，研究人员正在建立统计模型，以更好地预测哪些虫巢构成最大风险。FAO一个专门协调北非和西非十个国家沙漠蝗虫工作的委员会在2023年10月推出了这样一种模型。它为现场人员提供一个在线地图，完整显示在特定位置发现蝗虫的概率。这将帮助现场侦察员优先选择路线，节省金钱和时间。

By comparing satellite readings with massive data sets from ground sensors, as well as the ample historical record, researchers are building statistical models to better predict which nests pose the greatest risk. One such model was rolled out in October 2023 by an FAO commission co-ordinating desert-locust work in ten north and west African countries. It provides field officers with an online map complete with probabilities of finding locusts at specific locations. This will help field scouts prioritise routes, saving money and time.

无人机可以帮助他们覆盖更多地面。FAO和西班牙非营利组织Hemav Foundation联合设计了一种名为dLocust的便携式无人机，其外形像隐形轰炸机，通过弹弓发射。它被设计成飞行一个长达80公里的循环路线，自主拍摄可疑绿色植被的高分辨率图片。现场侦查员通过平板电脑或智能手机查看这些图片，并选择要访问的目标。目前有23台dLocust单元正在非洲大部分地区投入使用。

Drones can help them cover even more ground. The FAO and the Hemav Foundation, a Spanish non-profit, have jointly designed dLocust, a portable drone shaped like a Stealth bomber and launched by slingshot. It is designed to fly a loop up to 80km long, autonomously snapping high-resolution pictures of suspicious greenery. Field scouts review these by tablet or smartphone and choose which to visit. Twenty-three dLocust units are in field operation, mostly in Africa.

攻击无人机也在研发之中。肯尼亚的研究人员进行了实验，以确定无人机释放杀虫剂至其目标的最佳高度。（过高喷洒，风会威胁杀虫剂的扩散；过低喷洒，可能会浪费一些杀虫剂）。理想高度被确定为十米。

Attack drones are also in the works. Kenyan researchers have run experiments to determine the optimal height for a drone to unleash a pesticide over its hungry targets. (Spray it too high, and the wind dissipates the deadly mist; spray too low, and some may be wasted). The ideal height was found to be ten metres.

杀虫剂也需要进行更新。在最近的激增后的恐慌中，有些政府对地毯式喷洒了有机磷杀虫剂，这些化学品起到了蝗虫神经毒剂的作用。效果之快且令人满意。“你几乎可以看到蝗虫从天空中死落下来”，达喀尔的环境毒物学家Wim Mullié说。

Pesticides, too, are overdue for an upgrade. In the panic following the latest upsurge, some governments carpet-sprayed organophosphate pesticides, chemicals that serve as locust nerve agents. The effect was as satisfying as it was swift. “You could more or less see the insects falling dead from the sky,” said Wim Mullié, an environmental toxicologist in Dakar.

任何附近的人类也会感觉不适：由于对其他物种的毒性，这些化合物在欧盟已被禁止使用，Mullié博士表示。在埃塞俄比亚，农药可能已经杀死或吓跑了数十亿只蜜蜂。还存在更加有针对性的化学物质，包括Novacrid，这是一种基于真菌的生物杀虫剂，最早在1990年代开发出来。索马里在最近的蝗虫大爆发期间使用Novacrid，成功控制了其蝗虫问题。然而，问题在于它的成本高于竞争对手，并且需要三周的时间才能杀死昆虫。这让许多政府不愿依赖它。需要更好的化学药品。

Any humans nearby would have felt poorly too: such compounds are banned in the EU, Dr Mullié says, because of their toxicity to other species. In Ethiopia, pesticides may have killed or scared off billions of honeybees. More targeted chemicals do exist, including Novacrid, a fungus-based biopesticide first developed in the 1990s. Somalia, which used Novacrid throughout the latest upsurge, got its locust problem under control. The problem, however, is that it costs more than its competitors and takes three weeks to kill the insect. This has left many governments hesitant to rely on it. Better chemicals are needed.

这些技术进步本身并不能解决问题。蝗虫在冲突地区和资源匮乏的地区蓬勃发展；如果田野工作人员冒着被枪击的危险，或者设备运行不足，他们可能会选择留在家中不出门。在那里有死亡和黑暗的地方，蝗虫总是紧随其后。 ■

Such technological advances will not fix the problem on their own. Locusts thrive in conflict zones and under-resourced regions; field agents may well stay home if they risk being shot at, or if there is insufficient power to run their equipment. Where there is death and darkness, locusts remain close behind. ■

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科学技术 | 数字排毒 (Science and technology | Digital detoxes)

屏幕时间对儿童有何影响？ (What is screen time doing to children?)

两个月前，Daisy Greenwell和Clare Fernyhough建立了一个WhatsApp群，讨论如何阻止他们的小孩索要智能手机。在她们在Instagram上发帖后，其他家长也想加入进来。现在，他们的智能手机免费童年群拥有超过6万名关注者，讨论如何让孩子远离那些恶魔设备——自然地，这些讨论是在他们自己的智能手机上进行的。

Two months ago Daisy Greenwell and Clare Fernyhough set up a WhatsApp group to discuss how to stave off their young children’s demands for smartphones. After they posted about their plans on Instagram, other parents wanted in. Now their group, Smartphone-Free Childhood, has more than 60,000 followers debating how to keep their children away from the demon devices—a debate they are naturally conducting on smartphones of their own.

这个位于英国的群体不是唯一担心孩子屏幕时间的群体。上个月，佛罗里达州通过了一项禁止14岁以下儿童使用社交媒体的法律。英国政府据悉正在考虑禁止16岁以下青少年购买手机。最近由乔纳森·海德特（Jonathan Haidt）撰写的一本书《焦虑的一代》总结了这些担忧，该书认为智能手机，尤其是通过智能手机访问的社交网络，正在导致对儿童造成恶劣的“童年改变”。

This group, based in Britain, is not the only one worried about children’s screen time. Last month the state of Florida passed a law banning social media for under-14s. Britain’s government is reportedly considering a ban on mobile-phone sales to under-16s. The concerns are summed up by a recent book by Jonathan Haidt, “The Anxious Generation”, which argues that smartphones, and especially the social networks accessed through them, are causing a malign “rewiring of childhood”.

在一个有争议的辩论中，有两点是相当清楚的。首先，智能手机和社交媒体已经成为童年的重要组成部分。根据英国的研究，12岁时几乎每个孩子都有手机。一旦他们得到智能手机，社交媒体就是他们大部分屏幕时间的消耗方式。根据盖洛普的民意调查，美国青少年每天在社交应用上花费近五个小时。YouTube、TikTok和Instagram最受欢迎（全球最大的社交网络脸书排名第四）。

In a contentious debate two things are fairly clear. First, smartphones and social media have become a big part of childhood. By the age of 12 nearly every child has a phone, according to research in Britain. Once they get one, social media is how they spend most of their screen time. American teens spend nearly five hours a day on social apps, according to polls by Gallup. YouTube, TikTok and Instagram are most popular (Facebook, the world’s largest social network, is a distant fourth).

其次，大多数人认为，在富裕世界的大部分地区，年轻人的心理健康出现了下降。自2010年以来，报告在过去一年中至少发生一次“重度抑郁症发作”的美国青少年所占比例增加了150%以上。怀疑者认为，也许这些术语只是变得不再那么禁忌了。但情况不仅仅是口头上的。在17个主要富裕国家，青少女和年轻女性之间的自杀率大幅上升，尽管他们的自杀率仍然是任何一群中最低的（见图表）。

Second, most agree that in much of the rich world there has been a decline in mental health among the young. The share of American teenagers reporting at least one “major depressive episode” in the past year has increased by more than 150% since 2010. Perhaps such terms have simply become less taboo, sceptics suggest. But it is more than talk. Across 17 mostly rich countries, there has been a sharp rise in suicide among teenage girls and young women, though their suicide rate remains the lowest of any cohort (see chart).

这些现象是否有关联呢？时间上的一致性是令人联想的：正是在2010年代智能手机和社交应用兴起之际，心理健康开始下滑。一些研究也表明，花费更多时间在社交媒体上的孩子比轻度用户心理健康更差。但这种相关性并不能证明因果关系：比如，沮丧、孤独的孩子可能选择花更多时间沉迷于屏幕滚动而不是快乐的孩子。

Are the phenomena linked? The timing is suggestive: mental health began to slide just as smartphones and social apps took off, in the 2010s. Some studies also suggest that children who spend more time on social media have poorer mental health than lighter users. But such correlations do not prove causation: it may be, for instance, that depressed, lonely children choose to spend more time doom-scrolling than happy ones do.

一些随机实验性研究正在逐渐探讨这个因果问题。2017年，罗伯托·莫斯凯拉（Roberto Mosquera）及其美洲大学的同事们让一群美国Facebook用户停止使用这个平台一周。禁用者报告称自己感到比对照组更少抑郁，并参与了更多不同的活动；他们还消费了更少的新闻。

A small number of randomised experimental studies are chipping away at the causal question. In 2017 Roberto Mosquera of the Universidad de las Américas, and colleagues, got a group of Facebook users in America to stay off the platform for a week. The abstainers reported being less depressed than the control group and took part in more varied activities; they also consumed less news.

2018年，斯坦福大学和纽约大学的研究人员在美国进行了类似实验。在离开Facebook一个月后，他们的禁用者比对照组更快乐，花费更少的在线时间，更多时间与家人和朋友在一起，并且更少地受到政治上的极化影响。（同样，他们了解的新闻信息更少，花更多时间独自看电视。）这两个研究在幸福感上的影响都很微弱。

In 2018 researchers at Stanford and New York University did a similar experiment, again in America. After a month away from Facebook their detoxees felt happier than the control group, spent less time online, more time with family and friends and were less politically polarised. (Again, they knew less about the news, and spent more time watching television alone.) The effects on well-being in both studies were modest.

“我们目前具有的真正令人信服的因果证据是相当有限的，”2018年研究报告之一的作者之一，斯坦福大学的马修·根茨科夫（Matthew Gentzkow）承认说。但是他辩称，大多数情况指向了时间上的间接证据。“如果你把这一切放在一起，我认为可以说这个伤害是巨大且真实的可能性很大。”

“The really convincing causal evidence we have is quite limited,” admits Matthew Gentzkow of Stanford University, one of the authors of the 2018 study. But, he argues, most points in the same direction as the circumstantial evidence around timing. “If you put all that together, I think it’s enough to say there is a substantial probability that these harms are large and real.”

尚有许多不确定因素。最佳的随机实验是在成年人身上进行的，而不是关注的主要对象。大多数研究集中在脸书上，而如今脸书仅是青少年媒体消费的一小部分。这些研究大多集中在美国，这与世界上大多数青少年生活的国家并不相同。去年牛津大学互联网研究所进行的一项覆盖72个国家的研究发现，脸书的使用与年轻人心理健康略微有改善。与社交媒体的关系也难以分类。莫斯凯拉实验发现，尽管人们表示在不使用Facebook时更快乐，但他们仍然将其实用性价值定为每周67美元，并且在戒断一周后，禁用者更加珍视它。巴斯水疗大学的皮特·埃切尔斯（Pete Etchells）在他的著作《揭秘：关于屏幕时间的更乐观书籍》中辩称，问社交媒体对心理健康到底是好还是坏是错误的问题。也许更好的问题是：“为什么一些[孩子]在线上真的很活跃？另一些则很难应对？”

Much remains uncertain. The best randomised experiments have been done on adults, who are not the main objects of concern. Most studies focus on Facebook, which these days is a small part of teens’ media diet. And they are mostly in America, which is unlike the countries where most of the world’s teenagers live. A 72-country study last year by the Oxford Internet Institute found that Facebook adoption correlated with a small improvement in well-being among the young.

除非这个问题得到解答，否则他担心，禁止手机或社交媒体直到较大年龄之前只会推迟问题的出现。目前还不清楚这样一项禁令应该覆盖哪些内容。埃切尔士博士指出，社交媒体包括从Facebook到像“Fortnite”这样的游戏中的聊天功能的所有内容。支持一些社交媒体设定更高最低使用年龄的根茎博士警告说，不要对其进行全面限制。“与朋友进行的实际交流”——通过电话、短信或视频聊天—— “这些也许正是我们想要更多鼓励的事情，”他说。大多数社交App提供了各种功能，这些功能可能被人们享受或者被滥用。

People’s relationship with social media also defies categorisation. The Mosquera experiment found that, although people said they were happier when they didn’t use Facebook, they nonetheless valued its utility at $67 a week—and, after a week of abstinence, the detoxees valued it even more highly. Asking whether social media are good or bad for mental health is the wrong question, argues Pete Etchells of Bath Spa University, author of “Unlocked”, a somewhat more upbeat book about screen time. Perhaps a better question, he says, is: “Why is it that some [children] really thrive online? And why is it the case that others…really struggle?”

有一些迹象表明，尽管专家们在考虑如何遏制社交媒体的最坏部分，但普通用户正在想办法自己解决这个问题。在公开场合自我展示变得不那么常见：根据研究公司高德纳的数据，去年只有28%的美国人表示喜欢在网上记录自己的生活，而这一比例已从2020年的40% 下降。消息正在从公开网络转向私人聊天。据Instagram公司称，现在更多的照片是通过直接消息分享的，而不是在主要动态中分享的。随着中年人认识到，他们成长过程中社交网络存在的问题，年轻人可能已经在转变。

Unless that question is answered, banning phones or social media until a later age would simply delay the problem, he fears. It is also unclear what should be covered by such a ban. Social media include everything from Facebook to the chat function in games like “Fortnite”, points out Dr Etchells. Dr Gentzkow, who supports a higher minimum age for some social media, warns against limiting all of it. “Actual communication with your friends”—by phone, text or video chat—“those may well be things we want to encourage more of,” he says. Most social apps offer a mixture of functions, which can be enjoyed or misused.

There are some signs that, while experts ponder how to rein in the worst of social media, ordinary users are working out how to do so themselves. Posting about oneself in public is becoming less common: last year only 28% of Americans said they enjoyed documenting their life online, down from 40% in 2020, according to Gartner, a research firm. Messages are moving from open networks to private chats. On Instagram, more photos are now shared in direct messages than on the main feed, the company says. As middle-aged folk identify the problems with the social networks they grew up with, youngsters may already be moving on. ■

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亚洲 | 最后的甘地? (Asia | The last Gandhi?)

甘地vs莫迪：印度准备投票，国大党面临紧要关头 (Gandhi v Modi: crunch time for Congress as India prepares to vote)

《经济学人》加入最杰出的反对派政治人物竞选活动路径 (The Economist joins the most prominent opposition politician on the campaign trail)

拉胡尔·甘地现在看起来更加愤怒了。多年来，即使是亲密的朋友们也怀疑他是否有能力继承他父亲、祖母和曾祖父的衣钵，他们都曾是印度总理。当他在2014年领导国大党参加总选的失败竞选时，他的演讲经常是支吾其词的印地语，大多数时候都毫无声响。五年后，他又带领他的党蒙受另一次沉重的失败，甚至在长期家族据点阿梅蒂的议会议席上丢失了，不久之后辞去了党主席职务。

Rahul Gandhi seems angrier now. For years, even close friends wondered if he had the drive to follow in the footsteps of his father, grandmother and great-grandfather, all of whom were Indian prime ministers. When he fronted the Congress party’s ill-fated campaign for a general election in 2014, his speeches, often in faltering Hindi, mostly fell flat. Five years later, he led his party to another bruising defeat, even losing his own parliamentary seat in the long-time family stronghold of Amethi, in northern India. Soon afterwards he resigned as party chief.

然而，在即将于4月19日开始的总选前夕，甘地先生找到了他的斗志。当《经济学人》杂志加入他上月完成的跨越印度6300英里（10000公里）旅程的最后一段时，这成为了一个重要发现。在印度马哈拉施特拉邦各地的集会上，他谴责了总理纳兰德拉·莫迪，称其是对民主的威胁。他抨击主导其经济的大亨们。他谴责印度猖獗的不平等现象。“在这个国家里，没有你的空间，”他用（现在流利的）印地语对一群人说，“我不明白为什么你们对此无动于衷。”

And yet in the run-up to the general election, which starts on April 19th, Mr Gandhi has found the fire in his belly. That was one takeaway when The Economist joined the final leg of a 6,300-mile (10,000km) journey across India that he finished last month. In rallies across the state of Maharashtra he denounced Narendra Modi, the prime minister, as a threat to democracy. He castigated the tycoons who dominate its economy. And he deplored its rampant inequality. “There’s no space for you in this country,” he told one crowd in (now fluent) Hindi. “I don’t understand why you’re not doing anything about it.”

甘地先生这种新发现的热情几乎肯定来得太晚了，无法左右今年6月4日的结果。预计莫迪的印度人民党（或BJP）很可能会再次获胜。但国大党的忠实支持者希望，这将有助于在未来几年内振兴该党，并使甘地先生在2029年更有力地挑战。他们表示，届时，对失业和不平等的公众愤怒可能会削弱莫迪的人气。而甘地还有时间。53岁的他比莫迪年轻20年。

Read more of our coverage of the Indian election

因此，问题不再是甘地是否有参加斗争的勇气，而是剑桥大学毕业的、有意大利血统的政治世家的后裔是否是改革国大党的合适人选，即使一些盟友也认为该党类似于一个运作不善的家族企业。忠实支持者们认为，该党需要一个甘地来团结，并且拉胡尔已经在他的两阶段跨印度之旅中证明了自己，其中大部分路程他是步行完成的。但在一连串著名的叛逃事件之后，甚至一些支持者也开始怀疑，连续第三次在大选中失利是否应标志着甘地家族近80年来对该党的控制的结束。

Mr Gandhi’s newfound zeal has almost certainly come too late to swing this year’s result, due on June 4th. Mr Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (or BJP) is widely predicted to win again. But the hope among Congress loyalists is that it will help to revitalise the party in the years ahead and to position Mr Gandhi as a more serious challenger in 2029. By then, they say, public anger over unemployment and inequality may have dented Mr Modi’s popularity. And Mr Gandhi has time on his side. At 53, he is two decades younger than Mr Modi.

公平地说，最近情况对甘地先生并不利。莫迪削弱了媒体、法院和公民社会的独立性。他的税收和调查机构针对了数十名反对党政客，逮捕了两名该党领袖，并冻结了国大党的银行账户。甘地本人正受到涉嫌洗钱的调查（他否认有错），并因在2023年被判诽谤而被议会停职四个月，因嘲笑莫迪的名字而被判定有罪。竞选的不公平使得国大党领导人们讨论是否应抵制选举。

The question, then, is no longer if Mr Gandhi has the stomach for the fight. It is whether the Cambridge-educated, half-Italian scion of a political dynasty is the right person to overhaul a party that even some allies liken to a dysfunctional family business. Loyalists argue that the party needs a Gandhi to bind it together and that Rahul has proved his mettle on his two-stage trans-Indian tour, much of which he completed on foot. But after a series of prominent defections, even some supporters are starting to wonder if a third consecutive general-election loss should signal the end of the Gandhi family’s nearly eight-decade grip on the party.

尽管如此，国大党仍是除印度人民党之外唯一可行的全国性选择。尽管其全国选票份额在1984年的49%的高峰至2019年的20%间持续下滑（见图表1），但它在信奉世俗主义的印度人、穆斯林和其他少数群体中仍保持着坚定的支持，尤其是在南部。而要想重返全国执政，甘地需要应对三个紧迫挑战。

To be fair to Mr Gandhi, the odds have been stacked against him lately. Mr Modi has curbed the independence of the media, the courts and civil society. His tax and investigative agencies have targeted dozens of the opposition’s politicians, arrested two of its party leaders and frozen Congress bank accounts. Mr Gandhi himself is being probed for alleged money-laundering (he denies wrongdoing) and was suspended from parliament for four months in 2023 after being convicted of defamation for mocking Mr Modi’s name. So uneven is the contest that Congress leaders have discussed boycotting the poll.

第一个是意识形态。在过去的十年里，国大党一直在努力确定与印度人民党的印度教（印度民族主义）和发展相结合的一贯信息竞争。将莫迪称为对民主的威胁几乎没有动摇他优势地位的支持者，其中大部分崇拜他的强硬领导力（见图表2）。国大党领导人尝试过“软印度教”，与神圣的人交好并进行备受关注的寺庙之行。但这样做似乎只会激怒国大党的坚定支持者，而未能夺取许多印度人民党的选票。

Nonetheless Congress is still the only viable national alternative to the BJP. Although its national vote share has declined steadily from a peak of 49% in 1984 to 20% in 2019 (see chart 1) it retains a hard core of support among secular-minded Indians, Muslims and other minorities, especially in the south. And there is still a pathway back to national power—if Mr Gandhi can confront three urgent challenges that are within his purview.

最近，国会已将不平等视为其主要的竞选主题。4月5日发布的宣言（被莫迪先生指责为亲穆斯林）做出了承诺，包括确立学徒的法定权利、为农民确定最低支持价格、向贫困家庭提供10万卢比（1200美元）的现金转移以及设定每天400卢比的最低工资。该宣言承诺进行针对印度种姓制度中所有团体的全国人口普查，加强一项平权行动计划，并推翻几项它认为是反民主的印度人民党政策。

The first is ideological. In the past decade, Congress has struggled to identify a coherent message to compete with the BJP’s combination of Hindutva (Hindu nationalism) and development. Branding Mr Modi a threat to democracy hardly dents his support base in the Hindu majority, much of which admires his muscular leadership (see chart 2). Congress leaders have dabbled in “soft Hindutva”, schmoozing with holy men and making high-profile temple visits. But that seems only to anger Congress stalwarts, while failing to steal many BJP votes.

该宣言还承诺在制造业和矿业领域创造数百万个就业机会。但其着眼于政府干预和救助（却鲜有详细的融资方式）使其带有鲜明的左翼色彩。这在一定程度上反映了甘地先生的个人政治立场。他的同事表示，他更关心的不是促进经济增长，而是更均等地分配其好处。该党发言人贾伊拉姆·拉梅什说：“大多数印度政治家愿意接受不平等是快速经济增长的代价，而他（甘地）拒绝了。”

Recently Congress has made inequality its central campaign theme. A manifesto put out on April 5th (and denounced by Mr Modi as pro-Muslim) made commitments including a legal right to apprenticeship, a minimum support price for farmers, cash transfers of 100,000 rupees ($1,200) to poor families and a minimum wage of 400 rupees a day. It promised to carry out a nationwide census of all groups in the Hindu caste system, to strengthen an affirmative-action scheme and to reverse several BJP policies it considers anti-democratic.

甘地先生向左倾斜是有其逻辑的。为了对抗印度人民党的多数派主义，他试图动员占印度人口80%左右的下层种姓和少数民族。然而，作为富裕和特权阶层的一员，他的这一立场很难推广。相比之下，莫迪先生是一个茶贩之子，来自一个相对较低的种姓。通过扩大数字化福利，他赢得了许多贫困群众的选票。印度人民党在4月14日发布了自己的宣言，承诺提供更多的救助措施，但遭到了国大党的抨击，称其为“空洞的措辞耍花招”。

The manifesto has also pledged to create millions of jobs in manufacturing and mining. But the focus on government intervention and handouts (with few details of how to finance them) gives it a distinctly left-wing flavour. That partly reflects Mr Gandhi’s personal politics. Associates say he is less concerned about boosting economic growth than distributing its benefits more evenly. “Most Indian politicians would accept inequality as the price of rapid economic growth,” says Jairam Ramesh, a party spokesman. “He refuses.”

对国大党而言更为令人困扰的是，选民的日常关切与其政治选择之间存在明显脱节。虽然许多人关心失业问题，并希望进行种姓普查，但他们仍然支持莫迪。这表明许多选民不相信国大党能够兑现承诺，尤其是在就业方面，德里智库政策研究中心的拉胡尔·维尔马指出。该党也无法像莫迪能为古吉拉特邦2014年以前的情况做证明一样，引用最近改变的某个邦。“国大党的挑战更加艰巨，因为它掌权时间太长了，”维尔玛说，“这带来了负担。”

There is a logic to Mr Gandhi’s leftward tilt. To counter the BJP’s majoritarianism, he seeks to mobilise lower castes and minorities that represent around 80% of Indians. Still, it can be a hard sell coming from a product of wealth and privilege. Mr Modi, by contrast, is the son of a tea-seller, from a relatively low caste. He has won many votes among the poor by expanding digital welfare. And the BJP has pledged more handouts in its own manifesto, released on April 14th (and denounced by Congress as an “empty jugglery of words”).

甘地先生的第二个重大挑战是组织上的问题。印度人民党最近的选举成功在一定程度上取决于其高效的党务管理和信息传递。相比之下，国大党深受决策缓慢、不透明和有时不稳定的困扰。该党通常不愿放弃对甘地家族忠诚的候选人，即使他们在选举中落败。

More troubling still for Congress is the apparent disconnect between voters’ everyday concerns and their political choices. While many care about unemployment and want a caste census, they still back Mr Modi. That suggests that many voters do not trust Congress to deliver, especially on jobs, says Rahul Verma of the Centre for Policy Research, a Delhi-based think-tank. Nor can the party cite a state that it recently transformed, as Mr Modi could with Gujarat pre-2014. “The challenge is harder for Congress because it was in power for so long,” says Mr Verma. “It comes with baggage.”

其信息纪律也以混乱而闻名。高级国大党人经常公开不同意见或说出会让联盟伙伴不快的话。去年，该党在应对哈马斯袭击以色列的问题上反复无常。今年1月，国大党领导人就是否参加莫迪总理开设的一座引发争议的印度教寺庙的开放式仪式公开发生分歧。3月，一位国大党高级人物写了一封公开信，质疑其对种姓普查的支持。

Mr Gandhi’s second big challenge is with organisation. The BJP’s recent electoral success is based in part on its ruthlessly efficient party management and messaging. Congress, by contrast, is plagued by slow, opaque and sometimes erratic decision-making. It has often been reluctant to jettison candidates loyal to the Gandhi family, even after they have lost elections.

两年前，该党试图邀请普兰尚特·基沙尔，一名选举策略师，他曾协助印度人民党赢得2014年大选（现在正在创建一个新的政党）。他向甘地家族提出了一份详细的计划，以改革国大党的组织方式、选举候选人以及开展竞选活动。但他们拒绝了。基沙尔先生说：“他们还没有准备好承认存在问题并进行改变，他们仍然相信这只是一个暂时的阶段，迟早会过去，他们会重新掌权。”

Its message discipline is also notoriously sloppy. Senior Congress figures often disagree openly or say things that upset alliance partners. Last year the party flip-flopped over its response to the Hamas attacks on Israel. In January, Congress leaders split publicly over whether to attend Mr Modi’s opening of a controversial Hindu temple. And in March, one senior Congress figure wrote an open letter challenging its support for the caste census.

第三个困扰甘地先生的挑战是个人方面的。尽管现在更加充满活力，但他仍更倾向于政治的理论一面。虽然乐于深入讨论社会问题，但他不喜欢为管理党派而进行的交易。当他遇到阻力时，他对倡议的热情往往减退。他缺乏经验，从未领导过一个邦或一个部。一位前党内人士回忆说：“甘地家族只能成为总理”，因为在国大党执政时，有人建议甘地先生加入内阁，但遭到了拒绝。

Two years ago the party tried to enlist Prashant Kishor, an electoral strategist who helped engineer the BJP’s 2014 victory (and is now starting a new political party). He presented the Gandhis with a detailed plan to overhaul the way Congress organised itself, picked candidates and ran campaigns. They rejected it. “They are yet not ready to accept that there is a problem and they need to change,” says Mr Kishor. “They still believe that this is just a temporary phase, that it will blow over, and sooner or later they will be back.”

更令人担忧的是，甘地先生缺乏断然行动来控制他的党派。在21世纪初，他领导了一个引入新鲜血液的运动，他为青年团体举行公开选举并承诺为党的领导层做同样的事情。这带来了许多年轻人的加入。但在接下来的十年里，他们一再被国大党长者排斥，导致许多新星离开。自2019年以来，至少有25位知名人物背叛了国大党。不愿覆盖长者的决策是国大党去年在三个邦的选举中失败的原因之一。

The third challenge facing Mr Gandhi is personal. Although more energised now, he still prefers the intellectual side of politics. While relishing deep discussions on social issues, he dislikes the dealmaking needed to manage his party. His enthusiasm for initiatives often wanes when he meets resistance. And he lacks experience, having never run a state or a ministry. “Gandhis are only prime ministers,” one former party insider recalls being told, after proposing that Mr Gandhi join the cabinet when Congress was in power.

一些党内人士担心，甘地先生仍然处于悬而未决的境地，既不完全控制国大党，也不愿让其他人接管。在2019年辞去党领导人职务后，他的意大利出生的母亲索尼娅接替了他。2022年，国大党的一名资深领袖马利卡拉贾恩·卡尔格取代了她。但是现年81岁的卡尔格先生远不是莫迪先生的对手，决策仍然由甘地家族和一群家族忠实支持者主导。到目前为止，国大党还没有提名总理候选人，使莫迪先生没有直接竞争对手。

A bigger concern is that Mr Gandhi lacks the steeliness to grasp control of his party. In the 2000s he led a drive to introduce new blood by holding open elections for its youth wing and promising the same for the party leadership. That brought an influx of young talent. But over the next decade they were repeatedly sidelined by Congress elders, leading many rising stars to defect. Since 2019 at least 25 prominent figures have deserted Congress. Failure to overrule party elders contributed to its defeat in three state elections last year.

国大党官员表示，卡尔格先生的任命证明了党对精英管理的承诺。此外，他们补充说，这不是总统竞选；总理通常是在选举后选定的。尽管如此，甘地先生在党内模棱两可的角色使他容易受到指责，说他在回避与莫迪先生的正面较量。如果国大党在未来几年要扭转颓势，甘地先生将不得不做出选择：挺身而出还是退出舞台。 ■

Some party insiders worry that Mr Gandhi is still in limbo, neither fully in control of Congress nor willing to let others take charge. After resigning as party leader in 2019, he was replaced by his Italian-born mother, Sonia. In 2022, a Congress veteran, Mallikarjun Kharge, replaced her. But Mr Kharge, now 81, is no match for Mr Modi and decision-making is still dominated by the Gandhis and a cluster of family loyalists. So far the party has not nominated a prime ministerial candidate, leaving Mr Modi with no direct rival.

Congress officials say Mr Kharge’s appointment proves the party’s commitment to meritocracy. Besides, they add, this is not a presidential race; prime ministers are normally chosen after an election. Even so, Mr Gandhi’s ambiguous role in the party leaves him vulnerable to suggestions that he is shirking a head-on fight with Mr Modi. If Congress is to reverse its decline in the years ahead, Mr Gandhi will have to make a choice: step up or step aside. ■

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亚洲 | 海上演习 (Asia | Maritime manoeuvres)

中国与菲律宾之间的紧张局势加剧 (Tensions mount between China and the Philippines)

《红旗报》这份鲜为人知的共产主义报纸正在塑造日本的政治 (An obscure communist newspaper is shaping Japan’s politics)

《红旗报》的报道总是引人深思 (Stories by Shimbun Akahata consistently pack a punch)

自三个月前日本议会会期开始以来，有一个问题主导着议程：执政党自由民主党（LDP）内部的一个财务丑闻。去年年底，检察官对未能报告筹款活动收入、从而逃避税收的LDP派系展开了调查。与LDP有关联的几位人员，包括会计和议员，都已被起诉。去年十二月，四名内阁大臣和五名副大臣被解职。4月4日，首相 Kishida Fumio 要求其政党的两位重量级人物辞职，并惩罚了其他37名LDP成员。

Since Japan’s parliamentary session began three months ago, one issue has dominated the agenda: a financial scandal within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). At the end of last year, prosecutors launched an investigation into factions of the LDP which had failed to report revenue from fundraising events, thereby evading taxes. Several people linked to the LDP, including accountants and parliamentarians, have been indicted. In December four cabinet ministers and five vice-ministers were sacked. On April 4th Kishida Fumio, the prime minister, asked two of his party’s heavyweights to quit and punished 37 other LDP members.

也许令人惊讶的是，这场政治动荡可以追溯到《红旗报》（Shimbun Akahata），这是由日本共产党（JCP）经营的一个相对小众的报纸。它有85万订阅者，从1980年的大约350万高峰下降到目前。该报于2022年首次报道了资金不一致的问题。33岁的记者笹川神悠在仔细审查政府文件后首次报道了这一独家新闻。他与神脇浩教授（神戸学院大学的法学教授）合作，向检察官提出了刑事诉讼。

What is perhaps surprising is that this political turmoil can be traced back to Shimbun Akahata (“Red Flag Newspaper”), a relatively niche newspaper run by the Japan Communist Party (JCP). It is read by 850,000 subscribers, down from a peak of around 3.5m in 1980. It first reported on the funding discrepancies in 2022. “I didn’t expect things would blow up,” says Sasagawa Kamiyu, the 33-year-old journalist who first reported on the scoop after scrutinising government documents. He worked with Kamiwaki Hiroshi, a law professor at Kobe Gakuin University, who filed a criminal complaint with prosecutors.

这不是《红旗报》第一次力挺。2013年，该报首次揭发了“黑企业”（black kigyo），揭示了滥用工作场所的普遍存在，促使政府加强监管。2019年，他们报道了政客为持股者补助晚宴的事件。时任首相安倍晋三受到检察官的质询；尽管他未被起诉，但这一丑闻一直困扰着安倍，直到他于2020年8月辞职。美国罗格斯大学的尼克·卡普尔表示，该报报道了其他人“都害怕触及的问题”。

This is not the first time that Akahata has punched above its weight. In 2013 it led investigations on black kigyo (“black companies”), which shed light on the prevalence of abusive workplaces and pushed the government to introduce tighter regulation. In 2019 it reported on politicians subsidising dinners for supporters during an annual cherry-blossom-viewing party. Abe Shinzo, then prime minister, was questioned by prosecutors; though he was never charged, the scandal hounded Abe until his resignation in August 2020. The paper reports on issues “that everyone else is too afraid to touch”, says Nick Kapur at Rutgers University in America.

该报的动荡历史造就了它“勇于抗衡权力”的“坚强意志”，其主编古木藤洋二表示。《红旗报》成立于1928年，即日本共产党成立六年后。日本军国主义政权禁止共产党，认为它具有颠覆性。《红旗报》曾秘密制作和传播；警方逮捕并虐待那些阅读者。第二次世界大战后，美国占领军将共产党合法化，因为其声称促进民主和言论自由。

The paper’s tumultuous history contributes to its “strong will to stand up against power”, says Kogiso Yoji, its chief editor. Akahata was founded in 1928, six years after the JCP was established. Japan’s militarist regime banned the communist party because it was viewed as subversive. Akahata was produced and circulated underground; police arrested and tortured those reading it. After the second world war, American occupying forces made the JCP a legal party, as it claimed to promote democracy and free speech.

但《红旗报》的成就指向了一个尴尬的事实。传统媒体在日本仍然很强大。《读卖》和《朝日》是日本两家大报，在全球拥有庞大的发行量，分别每天印刷680万份和400万份。然而，这些主流媒体经常未能追究政客的责任。自我审查很普遍，因为记者与当局发展出紧密关系，试图避免激怒极端民族主义团体，据警方估计，这些团体的成员有数万人。这可能会成为公共生活中的一股令人望而生畏的力量。

But Akahata’s accomplishments point to an awkward truth. Traditional media remain powerful in Japan. Yomiuri and Asahi, two of Japan’s national newspapers, have some of the largest circulations in the world, printing 6.8m and 4m copies a day respectively. Yet such mainstream outlets often fail to hold politicians to account. Self-censorship is widespread as journalists develop close-knit ties with authorities and try to avoid upsetting ultra-nationalist groups, which the police estimate have tens of thousands of members. These can be an intimidating force in public life.

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亚洲 | 榕树 (Asia | Banyan)

Lawrence Wong将成为新加坡历史上仅有的第四位总理 (Lawrence Wong will be only the fourth PM in Singapore’s history)

下任领导者承诺延续和改变 (The next leader promises continuity and change)

在 新加坡 共和国的 59 年历史中，只有三位领导人。 5 月 15 日迎来第四位领导人，即 20 年任职的 72 岁总理 李显龙 退休，他的父亲 李光耀 统治了 31 年，以铁腕治国。在总统府举行的仪式上，现任财政部长 黄循财 将宣誓就职。他比李小二十岁。新加坡现在面临着未来在没有李掌舵的前景。

IN THE REPUBLIC’S 59-year history, Singapore has had only three leaders. On May 15th it gets its fourth, when the prime minister of 20 years, Lee Hsien Loong—who is 72 and whose father, Lee Kuan Yew, ruled with an iron will for 31 years—will resign. At a ceremony at the presidential palace, Lawrence Wong, the current finance minister, will be sworn in. He is Mr Lee’s junior by two decades. Singapore now faces the prospect of a future without a Lee at the helm.

就职典礼也意味着执政党人民行动党（PAP）将权力从“3G”（第三代）的高级党干将交接给选择黄的“4G”一代。黄随后将宣布一次可能在今年晚些时候举行的大选。PAP 一直确保不会输掉一场选举，黄肯定不会输掉。他有着足以让许多其他国家领导人垂泪的多数票。然而，永远不要认为对 PAP 来说选举无关紧要。背后的事情远不止表面看到的那些。

The investiture also marks when the ruling party, the People’s Action Party (PAP), passes the baton from a “3G” (third generation) of senior party cadres to the “4G” cohort who chose Mr Wong as their man. Mr Wong will then call a general election, likely sometime this year. The PAP has made sure never to lose one, and Mr Wong will certainly not lose his. He is guaranteed a majority to make the leaders of many other countries weep. Yet never think that elections do not matter to the PAP. More is at stake than meets the eye.

新加坡人不再仅仅根据 PAP 的传统重点评判，即提供经济增长，确保新加坡这个微不足道、多民族的繁荣小岛免受对其非凡成功和社会凝聚力的威胁。

Singaporeans no longer judge the PAP merely on its traditional emphasis of delivering economic growth and of keeping Singapore, a tiny, multi-ethnic dot of prosperity in a sea of troubles, safe from threats to its extraordinary success and social cohesion.

事实上，许多更年轻的新加坡人对等待分享增长的人的公平性有更高要求：他们认为，一个掌握着如此庞大财政储备的国家应更慷慨地支持福利。他们也希望政治更具参与性，而非过于从顶层指挥。对于在国家面前宣誓上任的黄来说，重要的不是他（和4G的）正式授权，而是道义合法性。

Indeed many younger Singaporeans, less respectful of hierarchy, want more fairness in terms of who shares in growth: they think that a country sitting on such gargantuan financial reserves should more generously support welfare. They also want politics to be more participatory rather than heavily directed from the top. At stake for Mr Wong, when he goes to the country, is not his (and the 4G’s) formal mandate but rather moral legitimacy.

政党喜欢尽量减少意外，变革之前有连续性。黄淡化了大选前的内阁大改组的预期。大选后，李会留任，就像他之前的父亲一样，担任高级部长（通常被称为 SM——该党热爱缩写）。至少一位老一辈重要成员 ** Shanmugam** 将继续留任。自 2008 年以来，他一直担任法律部长，并管理内政部。

The party likes to leave little to chance, and before change comes continuity. Mr Wong downplays expectations of major cabinet reshuffles before the election. After it, Mr Lee, as did his father before him, will stay on, as senior minister (more commonly called SM—the party loves initials). At least one key member of the old guard, K. Shanmugam, will stay in post. Since 2008 he has served as law minister and runs the home ministry, too.

** Shanmugam** 对新加坡面临的威胁持悲观看法。这些威胁涉及从主要穆斯林国家马来西亚和印度尼西亚蔓延的极端主义；外国国家的虚假信息宣传；到对新加坡的开放经济特别脆弱的大国竞争和其他对贸易构成威胁的因素。警惕是关键词。 PAP 还喜欢警告其他地方的民粹主义政治的危险；它表现为镇压挥霍。

Mr Shanmugam takes a bleak view of threats to Singapore. They range from extremism spilling over from majority-Muslim Malaysia and Indonesia; to disinformation campaigns by foreign states; to great-power rivalry and other trade-wrenching forces to which Singapore’s open economy is especially vulnerable. Vigilance is the watchword. The PAP also likes to warn of the dangers of populist politics elsewhere; it presents itself as the guard against profligacy.

然而，黄承诺与过去有所不同。本周，他描述了一个需要全新方法和准备“开创新局面”的“迅速变化的环境”。一些人认为他的议程将受到政治资本短缺的阻碍。他不是4G的首选。现任经济部长 王瑞璋 就是李指定的接班人，直到他在 2021 年突然退出。黄是一位非常有能力的前技术官僚，于2011年进入政界，是疫情期间行政管理的公众面孔。然而，在新加坡人中仍相对较为不知名。

Yet Mr Wong has promised a break from the past. This week he described a “rapidly changing environment” which demanded fresh approaches and a readiness “to break new ground”. Some think his agenda will be thwarted by a shortage of political capital. He was not the 4G’s first choice. Heng Swee Keat, currently the economy minister, was Mr Lee’s anointed successor until he suddenly withdrew in 2021. Mr Wong, a highly competent former technocrat who entered politics in 2011, was the public face of the administration during the pandemic. Still, he remains relatively unknown among Singaporeans.

事实上，成为妥协候选人也许并非坏事。4G成员中没有人可以像早期领导人那样具有魅力的权威统治。黄的领导极可能更具集体性，寻求共识，甚至包括外部党派。令人鼓舞的是，两年前，黄领导了一个名为“向前新加坡”的磋商倡议，旨在征求公民对提高富人税和加强社会福利等问题的意见。性格温和的黄比大多数执政精英更能引起新加坡人的共鸣。他是一个弹吉他、自诩书呆子，在东海岸住宅区长大，没有就读 PAP 高管经常借重的精英学校。许多人认为这是一大优点。

In reality, being the compromise candidate may be no bad thing. No 4G member can hope to rule with the charismatic authority of earlier leaders. Mr Wong’s is likely to be a more collective leadership, one that reaches for consensus—perhaps, even, including outside the party. Promisingly, two years ago Mr Wong led a consultative initiative, known as Forward Singapore, that sought opinions among citizens about such issues as raising taxes on the rich and strengthening social welfare. The mild-mannered Mr Wong is more relatable to Singaporeans than most of the governing elites. The guitar-strumming, self-confessed nerd brought up on an East Coast housing estate did not go to any of the elite schools that the PAP high-flyers often judge themselves by. To many, that is a plus.

因此，黄以一定程度的善意开始。然而，选举将是他的关键考验。 PAP 将因其强大的机构、对反对派的不懈攻击、驯服的媒体、良好的治理记录以及暗示的信息，即其存亡和新加坡的存亡是一致的，而取胜。然而，如果反对派获得目前拥有的 87 个席位中多于十个席位，那么这位改革候选人将一开始就处于不利地位。■

Mr Wong, then, kicks off with a degree of goodwill. Still, the election will be his key test. The PAP will win thanks to formidable organisation, unrelenting attacks on the opposition, a docile press, a record of good governance and a not always subliminal message that its survival and that of Singapore are synonymous. Yet if the opposition gets many more than the ten out of 87 elected seats it currently holds, the change candidate will start off on the back foot.■

Read more from Banyan, our columnist on Asia:Some Australians are increasingly sceptical of AUKUS (Apr 11th)For a glimpse at Japan’s future, look at its convenience stores (Apr 4th)Vietnam’s head of state leaves under a cloud (Mar 27th)

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文化 | 展示给我莫奈 (Culture | Show me the Monet)

在它150周年纪念之际，印象主义令人惊讶地具有现实意义 (On its 150th anniversary, Impressionism is surprisingly relevant)

这个曾经被嘲笑的运动揭示了当今艺术的真谛 (What the once-derided movement reveals about art today)

世界并非一直是Claude Monet的超级粉丝的舞台。”壁纸在其胚胎阶段比那幅海景更完美，”艺术评论家路易斯·勒罗伊在描述莫奈的《印象，日出》时嘲笑道。这幅描绘诺曼底一座朦胧港口的画作被挂在了由匿名画家、雕塑家和雕刻家协会于1874年4月15日开幕的展览中。一些有关莫奈及其一些同道“叛逆者”采用的潦草风格的评论如此尖刻，以至于听起来更像是社交媒体上的恶意评论，而不是专业艺术评论。另一位评论家在19世纪70年代描述这种新风格时称其为”人类虚荣到精神错乱的可怕景象”。

THE WORLD was not always an arena of Claude Monet superfans. “Wallpaper in its embryonic state is more finished than that seascape,” sneered Louis Leroy, an art critic, when describing Monet’s “Impression, Sunrise”. The painting of a hazy port in Normandy was hung in a show put on by the Anonymous Society of Painters, Sculptors and Engravers Etc that opened on April 15th 1874. Some of the comments about the sketchy style adopted by Monet and some of his fellow “rebels” were so acerbic that they sound more like put-downs from social-media trolls than professional art commentary. An “appalling spectacle of human vanity losing its way to the point of dementia” was how another critic in the 1870s described the new style.

匿名协会150年前的展览被认为是印象派运动的诞生之地；当时画家们被勒罗伊称为“印象派”，尽管这些艺术家在接下来的几年里才开始自称这样。（在1874年的画家术语中，印象是一种速写。）这次展览如今成为另一场展览的主题，“巴黎1874: 发明印象派”，最近在奥赛博物馆开幕。今年九月，展览将从巴黎前往华盛顿特区的国家美术馆。

The Anonymous Society’s show 150 years ago is remembered as the Impressionist movement’s birth; it was then that the painters were called “Impressionist” by Leroy, though the artists would not claim the label themselves for another couple of years. (An impression was a sketch, in the lingo of painters in 1874.) That show is now the subject of another exhibition, “Paris 1874: Inventing Impressionism”, which recently opened at the Musée d’Orsay. In September it will travel from Paris to the National Gallery in Washington, DC.

如今，印象派的画作已成为最具辨识度、最受喜爱且最有价值的之一，因此很容易忘记许多人首次面对这些作品时的震惊之情。这种惊讶的反应既是对主题的反应，也是对描绘自然光瞬息万变的粗糙笔触的反应。这些艺术家拒绝了传统绘画的焦点——古典神话、历史和理想化的肖像，转而选择描绘当代生活的场景，包括剧院和巴黎的大道。

Today Impressionist paintings are among the most recognisable, beloved and valuable, so it is easy to forget the shock many people felt when first confronted by them. The startled reaction was as much a result of the subject matter as it was the rough brushwork depicting the fleeting quality of natural light. The artists rejected the focus of traditional painting—classical myths, history and idealised portraits—in favour of scenes of contemporary life, including the theatre and Paris’s boulevards.

他们的行为是民主和资本主义的事业：参加匿名协会展览的31位艺术家希望能够选择展示哪些作品并直接出售。这是对由巴黎美术学院举办的政府赞助的沙龙的回应，该沙龙通过评审筛选绘画，并拥有保守的品味。仅有四幅画作在匿名协会展览期间售出；负责举办展览的公司在几个月内解散。

Theirs was a democratic and capitalist undertaking: the 31 artists who took part in the Anonymous Society’s show wanted to select which of their works to exhibit and to sell them directly. This was in response to a government-sponsored Salon put on by the Académie des Beaux-Arts, which screened paintings with a jury and had conservative taste. Only four paintings sold during the Anonymous Society’s exhibition; the company formed to put on the show dissolved within months.

观看这些过去的画作的观众可以看到与现在的一些类似之处。印象派描绘了自然世界的毁灭，环境被铁路和烟囱改变。他们还描绘了暴力和政治不确定性的阴影：在法国与普鲁士的战争中失败及随后的反政府起义（被称为巴黎公社）之后仅仅过了几年。艺术展览在奥赛博物馆的联合策展人安妮·罗宾斯表示，这些艺术家“有意或可能是无意地从画作中抹去了一切与战争有关的元素”，转而专注于“现代生活的幸福场景”，这“本身是令人着迷和有趣的”，她说。她认为这与人们急于摆脱covid-19所带来的动荡很相似。

Viewers regarding these paintings from the past can see some parallels with the present. The Impressionists evoked the destruction of the natural world, with a pure environment altered by railroads and smokestacks. They also painted in the shadows of violence and political uncertainty: only a few years after France’s defeat in a war with Prussia and a subsequent insurrection against the government, known as the Paris Commune. The way the artists “deliberately or maybe unconsciously erased anything having to do with war from the paintings”, focusing instead on “happy scenes of modern life”, is “in itself fascinating and intriguing”, says Anne Robbins, co-curator of the show at the Musée d’Orsay. She posits that this is not unlike how people are anxious to move on from dislocations wrought by covid-19.

印象派也是在对新技术做出反应，这些新技术影响了艺术创作，就像今天一样。由于可挎带式油漆管的发明，他们在室外而非在工作室创作。他们的画作受到另一项创新的影响：摄影。一些其他艺术家试图模仿摄影的清晰度。但是在印象派艺术家们浓密可见的笔触中，正如“他们几乎是在说，‘看，这是油漆。这不是摄影’”一样，作者菲利普·胡克在他的著作《The Ultimate Trophy》中说。

The Impressionists were also reacting to new technology, which influenced the creation of art, as it does today. They worked outdoors, rather than in studios, thanks to the invention of portable paint in tubes. Their pictures were influenced by another innovation: photography. Some other artists tried to emulate photography’s clarity. But with the Impressionists’ thick, visible brushstrokes, it is “almost as if they were saying, ‘Look, this is paint. This is not photography,’” says Philip Hook, author of “The Ultimate Trophy”, a history of Impressionism.

奥赛博物馆巧妙地利用创新技术展示这些作品，利用虚拟现实来想象1874年的展览可能会是什么样子。参观者可以戴上头盔进行一个逼真的导览。你几乎可以触及那些你当时可以用1000法郎买下的画作（可惜你没有！）。许多博物馆都试图利用技术来补充他们老式的展览，并吸引更年轻的观众；这是迄今为止最成功的尝试之一。

Fittingly, the Musée d’Orsay makes good use of innovative tech to present these works, harnessing virtual reality to imagine what the exhibition in 1874 might have looked like. Visitors can don a headset and go on a startlingly realistic guided tour. You can almost touch the paintings you could have bought back then for 1,000 francs (if only you had!). Many museums have tried to use tech to complement their old-fashioned shows and lure in younger audiences; this is one of the most successful attempts to date.

这次展览关于1874年的艺术世界，但它使人思考艺术当前的状态。它提出了今天前卫艺术家到底经历了什么。Hook先生说，印象派从震惊观众到获得广泛接受，奠定了“每一次新的现代艺术运动都会反复出现的模板”。在随后的几十年里，艺术家们通过风格、主题和形式的变化挑战观众，促使他们考虑艺术究竟是什么，从马塞尔·杜尚的小便池到特雷西·埃明的未铺床。

This exhibition is about the art world in 1874, but it makes you ponder art’s current state. It raises the question of what has happened to the avant-garde today. In going from shocking audiences to gaining broad acceptance, the Impressionists set a “template that has been repeated regularly with every new modernist art movement”, says Mr Hook. In subsequent decades artists played with style, subject matter and form, challenging viewers to consider what exactly art is, from Marcel Duchamp’s urinal to Tracey Emin’s unmade bed.

如今，革命性实验大为减少。“艺术家们挑战的空间如今较小，”一位艺术品交易商表示，他认为当代建筑更愿意打破规范。“在我以为更多艺术家会更加政治化的时刻，他们似乎更加保守地自我局限，”艺术顾问兼画廊老板乔什·贝尔表示。展现美感和个人身份认同如今是流行的艺术关注点。“我还以为我们会看到更具攻击性的作品，”贝尔先生补充道。

Today there is much less revolutionary experimentation. “Artists challenge much less today,” says one art dealer, who finds contemporary architecture more willing to break with norms. “In a moment when I thought more artists would be reaching out more politically, they seem to be reaching in more conservatively,” agrees Josh Baer, an art adviser and gallerist. Depicting beauty and personal identity are today’s popular artistic preoccupations. “I thought we’d be seeing something a little bit more aggressive,” Mr Baer adds.

今年的惠特尼双年展在纽约展出的作品精致而冒险性较小。将在4月20日开幕的威尼斯双年展将是另一个脉搏检测的机会。作为艺术界的奥林匹克，它常常捕捉到时代精神。今年的主题是“到处都是外国人”，聚焦于那些因身份和性向而成为局外人的艺术家。

This year’s Whitney Biennial in New York is a collection of sleek works that take little risk. The Venice Biennale, which opens on April 20th, will be another pulse-taking. With prizes and pavilions, it is often described as the Olympics of the art world, and it usually captures the zeitgeist. This year’s theme is “foreigners everywhere” and focuses on artists whose identity and sexuality make them outsiders.

许多人认为扼杀大学校园异议的政治正确已侵入艺术界，艺术家们变得害怕激怒人、违背共识。在如今的政治氛围中，博物馆“害怕”突破界限，Twentieth公司的艺术与慈善顾问莱斯利·拉莫斯表示：它们必须“觉醒但不要太过觉醒，有趣但不要太过学术化，价格不要太高不要太低。” 其他人则将问题归咎于互联网：现在更注重创作大幅、色彩鲜艳的画作，以在社交媒体上呈现出好效果。

Many feel the political correctness that has strangled dissent on college campuses has infected the art world, with artists becoming afraid to ruffle feathers and go against consensus. In today’s political climate museums are “terrified” to push the envelope, says Leslie Ramos of the Twentieth, a firm that advises on art and philanthropy: they have to be “woke but not too woke, interesting but not too scholarly, not too expensive but not too cheap”. Others blame the internet: a premium is now put on creating large, vibrant canvases that look good on social media.

这些由年轻艺术家创作的画作（根据研究机构Arts Economics的克莱尔·麦克安德鲁的说法，如今被称为“超当代”）可能以六位和七位数的价格售出。印象派画家也给人们提供了一个令人警醒的提示。1874年匿名社展示的31位艺术家中，如今还有不到十人被人记得。Musée d’Orsay的罗宾斯女士表示，其中有几位如此默默无闻，以至于策展人几乎找不到任何关于他们的信息。

Those paintings by young artists (called “ultra-contemporary” in today’s parlance, according to Clare McAndrew of Arts Economics, a research firm) can sell for six- and seven-figure sums. Here the Impressionists also offer a humbling reminder. Of the 31 artists who presented at the Anonymous Society’s show in 1874, fewer than ten are remembered today. A handful are so obscure that the curators could find virtually nothing about them, says Ms Robbins of the Musée d’Orsay.

可以预见，如今工作的艺术家中只有更少的一部分会在150年后被人们赞美。拍卖行苏富比的海伦娜·纽曼表达了这一点：“看看我们今天所看到的，我们心里清楚只有少部分会经得起时间的考验。”■

The odds are that an even smaller proportion of artists working now will be celebrated in 150 years. As Helena Newman of Sotheby’s, an auction house, puts it: “Look at what we see today, and we know in our bones that only a small amount will stand the test of time.” ■

图片来自Musée D’Orsay / Musée Marmottan Monet / Studio Christian Baraja SLB / National Gallery of Art, Washington / Dist. RMN-Grand Palais / Patrice Schmidt / RMN-Grand Palais / Hervé Lewandowski / 法国国家图书馆.

Images courtesy of Musée D’Orsay / Musée Marmottan Monet / Studio Christian Baraja SLB / National Gallery of Art, Washington / Dist. RMN-Grand Palais / Patrice Schmidt / RMN-Grand Palais / Hervé Lewandowski / Bibliothèque nationale de France.

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文化 | 播放 (Culture | Press play)

好莱坞是如何爱上视频游戏的 (How Hollywood fell in love with video games)

《辐射》是成功改编的最新作品。 (“Fallout” is the latest in a successful run of adaptations)

最近，“辐射”系列视频游戏的新作发布后受到了好评。评论家称这款后启示录冒险游戏为“稀有宝石”和“绝对乐趣”。在外观和感觉上，新的“Fallout”与以往版本非常相似。不同之处在于，最新的版本实际上并不是游戏，而是一部电视剧。

A new instalment of “Fallout”, a long-running series of video games, was released recently to rave reviews. Critics called the post-apocalyptic adventure a “rare gem” and an “absolute blast”. In its look and feel, the new “Fallout” is much like previous releases. The difference is that the latest iteration is not a game at all, but a television series.

将像素冒险转变为真人叙事长期以来一直让好莱坞编剧们望而却步，导致了像““街头霸王”（1994）和“毁灭战士”（2005）这样的失败作品。一款备受赞誉的游戏开发者透露，大约十年前其银幕改编版是他见过的最糟糕的电影。

Converting pixelated adventures to live-action narratives long defeated scriptwriters in Hollywood, resulting in turkeys like “Street Fighter” (1994) and “Doom” (2005). The developer of one celebrated game confides that its silver-screen adaptation around a decade ago was the worst movie he had ever seen.

但现在制片厂正在重新制作游戏，并获得商业和评论上的成功。去年，“超级马里奥兄弟”成为全球票房第二高的电影。一部基于PlayStation游戏的电视剧“The Last of Us”在一月份获得了一大批艾美奖。更多游戏改编作品正在制作中：娱乐网站IGN统计，目前有70多款游戏正在制作电影或电视剧，其中包括基于“古墓丽影”和“英雄联盟”的剧集，以及基于 “Zelda” 和“我的世界”的电影。

But now studios are reworking games and finding commercial and critical success. Last year “The Super Mario Bros” was the second-highest-grossing film at the worldwide box office. “The Last of Us”, a TV show based on a PlayStation game, won a haul of Emmy awards in January. More game adaptations are on the way: IGN, an entertainment website, counts more than 70 games in development for film or TV, including shows based on “Tomb Raider” and “League of Legends” and films based on “Zelda” and “Minecraft”.

是什么解释了这些游戏节目的热情？一个原因是，好莱坞最喜欢的创作素材——漫画书已经变得乏味。二十年来，超级英雄一直统治着票房。但最近，每部漫威电影似乎都没有上一部那么成功和受赞扬。去年十一月上映的“漫威传奇”，迄今为止是票房最低的。游戏提供了另一种选择：“各种品牌的宝藏、现成的观众群、多年的故事线索以及无尽的衍生产品可能性，”研究公司Ampere Analysis的弗雷德·布莱克表示。

What explains the enthusiasm for these game-shows? One reason is that Hollywood’s favourite source of creative material, comic books, is getting boring. For two decades the box office has been ruled by superheroes. But more recently each Marvel film has seemed to be less successful and lauded than the last. “The Marvels”, released in November, was the lowest-grossing so far. Games offer an alternative: “A deep well of franchises, a built-in audience, years of storylines and endless spin-off franchise possibilities,” says Fred Black of Ampere Analysis, a research firm.

新一波改编浪潮的先驱者是亚马逊Prime Video（委托制作了“Fallout”）和Netflix。这些流媒体公司是好莱坞相对新手，一直在不断委托制作以吸引订阅者。与拥有漫威的迪士尼等老牌竞争对手不同，它们拥有的知识产权档案有限。“大多数漫画系列已经被收购，所以他们需要找到其他东西，”布莱克表示。游戏成为了那个“其他东西”。他们的“吸血鬼杀手卡司尔维尼亚”（2017）和“巫师”（2019）等作品的成功引起了好莱坞制片厂的注意。

The pioneers of the new wave of adaptations have been Amazon Prime Video (which commissioned “Fallout”) and Netflix. These streaming companies, relative newcomers to Hollywood, have been on a commissioning binge to attract subscribers. Unlike older rivals such as Disney, which owns Marvel, they have a limited archive of intellectual property. “Most of the comic franchises were already owned, so they needed to find something else,” says Mr Black. Games were that something. Their success with titles like “Castlevania” (2017) and “The Witcher” (2019) got the attention of Hollywood studios.

游戏世界的变化也起到了帮助作用。由于智能手机（将迷你游戏机放入每个人口袋）和新冠疫情（通过纯粹的无聊，让数百万人变成了新的游戏玩家），游戏玩家数量大幅增加。例如“我的世界”等大作每个月有超过1亿人玩，为影视衍生品担保了庞大的潜在观众群。更广泛且老龄化的游戏玩家群体使得在好莱坞获得视频游戏项目的批准变得更容易。以前的制片人一头雾水于年轻人的游戏，而今的大亨们在玩游戏中长大。

Changes in the gaming world have also helped. The game-playing public has ballooned, thanks to smartphones (which put a miniature console in everyone’s pocket) and the covid-19 pandemic (which created millions of new gamers through sheer boredom). Big titles like “Minecraft” are played by more than 100m people each month, guaranteeing a large potential audience for film spin-offs. The broader and ageing pool of gamers makes it easier to get video-game projects greenlit in Hollywood. Previous generations of producers were befuddled by youngsters’ games; today’s moguls grew up playing them.

最重要的是，现代游戏比以前更适合改编。亚马逊的“Fallout”拥有精彩的剧本和强大的演员阵容。但其史诗、末日后的设定、扭曲情节和丰富背景故事都来自游戏。PlayStation版的“最后生还者”是如此电影化，以至于华纳公司的电视改编版的开场几乎没有改动。它的主要角色乔尔和艾莉已经生动形象，电视剧从游戏中借用了许多台词。

Most significant, modern games are better fodder for adaptation than their precursors. Amazon’s “Fallout” has a sharp script and a strong cast. But its epic, post-apocalyptic setting, twisting plot and rich back story all come from the game. The PlayStation version of “The Last of Us” was so cinematic that the opening scenes of Warner’s TV adaptation were barely changed. Its central characters, Joel and Ellie, were already vividly drawn; the TV series borrowed plenty of dialogue from the game.

尽管最近取得了成功，游戏改编作品并不像超级英雄那样可靠。派拉蒙的“光晕”和Netflix的“生化危机”都没有达到预期。布莱克表示，最大的成功往往要么是如此著名以至于即使非玩家也能认出品牌（想想“马里奥”、“索尼克”或“愤怒的小鸟”），要么是如此吸引人以至于他们的数字来源变得无关紧要（“最后生还者”或“Fallout”）。“Fallout”的爆炸性第一集标题为“结束”。对于屏幕上的游戏来说，这只是个开始。■

For all the recent hits, game adaptations are not yet such reliable performers as superheroes. Paramount’s “Halo” and Netflix’s “Resident Evil” did not live up to expectations. The biggest hits, says Mr Black, tend to be either so well known that even non-gamers recognise the brand (think “Mario”, “Sonic” or “Angry Birds”), or so engaging that their digital origin ceases to matter (“The Last of Us” or “Fallout”). The explosive first episode of “Fallout” is entitled, “The End”. For games on screen, it is just the beginning. ■

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文化 | 找出线索 (Culture | Get a clue)

一个构思纵横字谜的人的14个字母单词是什么？ (What is a 14-letter word for a constructor of crossword puzzles?)

一本新书探讨了由设计它的女性带来的纵横字谜的历史 (A new book looks at the history of the crossword through the women who designed it)

斯芬克斯的谜题。 安娜·薛特曼著。HarperOne；288页；售价29.99美元和22英镑

The Riddles of the Sphinx. ByAnna Shechtman. HarperOne; 288 pages; $29.99 and £22

什么三个字母的词意为“现代术语中指有礼貌、爱派对、自大的男性”？答案是：“Bro”。2014年，填字游戏设计师安娜·薛特曼引入这个线索到纽约时报的填字游戏中，读者们开始关注。Bro一词在传统上解释为“姐姐的兄弟”。薛特曼女士在现代化游戏的同时也捕捉到了时代精神。

What is a three-letter word for “preppy, party-loving, egotistical male, in modern lingo”? Answer: “Bro”. When Anna Shechtman, a cruciverbalist (crossword constructor), introduced this clue to the New York Times crossword puzzle in 2014, readers took notice. “Bro” was traditionally clued as “sibling for sis”. Ms Shechtman was modernising the puzzle and capturing the zeitgeist.

什么使一个词适合成为谜题？自1913年出现在纽约世界报的周日版中以来（如图），填字游戏已经帮助定义了常识领域。尽管由编辑亚瑟·温纳发明，但在早期，女性，特别是无聊的家庭主妇，是主要设计者和解密者。在《斯芬克斯的谜题》中，现在为纽约客创建填字游戏的薛特曼女士追溯了通过帮助创建填字游戏的女性而塑造出的美国填字游戏的历史。

What makes a word puzzle-worthy? Since its appearance in the Sunday edition of the New York World in 1913 (pictured), the crossword has helped define the canon of common knowledge. Though it was invented by Arthur Wynne, an editor,in its early days, women—especially bored housewives—were the primary constructors and solvers. In “The Riddles of the Sphinx”,Ms Shechtman, who now creates crosswords for the New Yorker, traces the history of the crossword in America through the women who helped create it.

20世纪20和30年代，报纸警告“填字游戏症”，他们声称这是一场“流行病”，正在耗尽美国的智慧，让妇女们分心，远离家务工作。但到了20世纪40年代，一直对填字游戏疯狂持保留态度的纽约时报也推出了填字游戏，部分原因是为了让读者从关于第二次世界大战的不间断新闻中得到放松。“在解决填字游戏时，你无法想到自己的烦恼，”其创始编辑玛格丽特·法拉写道。法拉女士直到1969年一直编辑时报的填字游戏，她坚持礼貌。对于那些不适合周日早餐的词和提示在方格中被删除。比如，“LSD”一词的提示是“英国货币”，而不是“致幻药”。

In the 1920s and 30s, newspapers warned of “crossword puzzleitis”, an “epidemic” they claimed was draining America’s brainpower and distracting women from their household duties. But by the 1940s, the New York Times, which had resisted the crossword craze, introduced the puzzle, partly to offer readers relief from unrelenting news about the second world war. “You can’t think of your troubles while solving a crossword,” wrote Margaret Farrar, its founding editor. Farrar, who edited the Times crossword until 1969, insisted on decorum. Words and clues too unsavoury for a morning breakfast on Sundays were stricken from the grid. The clue offered for “LSD”, for example, was “British currency” instead of “psychedelic drug”.

随着越来越多的妇女进入职场，制作填字游戏的人数在下降。 1989年，计算机科学家埃里克·阿尔伯特开发了填字软件，帮助设计者通过创建和管理单词列表来填满方格。填字游戏创作的世界开始变得更像是男性主导的科技行业。薛特曼女士将这个历史与她制作填字游戏和饮食障碍的回忆交织在一起（这反映了她在填字游戏刚性格式中看到的对掌控的需求）。在设计中，她思考文化代表性。填字游戏应该促使解密者扩展知识还是使他们感到舒适呢？

As more women entered the workforce, the number of them producing puzzles declined. In 1989 Eric Albert, a computer scientist, developed constructing software, which helped designers fill a grid by enabling them to create and manage word lists. The world of crossword creation began to look more like the heavily male tech industry. Ms Shechtman interweaves this history with a memoir of her puzzle-making and eating disorder (reflecting a need for control that she sees in the rigid format of the grid). In constructing, she thinks about cultural representation. Should crosswords push solvers to expand their knowledge or keep them comfortable?

自从新冠大流行以来，填字游戏和类似的在线游戏如“Wordle”的受欢迎程度只增加了。纽约时报在2021年收购了Wordle，在2023年，时报游戏应用的订阅量增至超过一百万，约占该报总订户的十分之一。游戏，现在是收入的主要来源，是一个五个字母的策略。■

Since the covid-19 pandemic, the popularity of the crossword and similar online games like Wordle has only increased. The New York Times acquired Wordle in 2021, and in 2023 subscriptions to the Times’sGames app climbed to over a million, around a tenth of the newspaper’s total subscriber base. Games, now a big driver of revenue, are a five-letter strategy. ■

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文化 | 登山运动 (Culture | Mountaineering)

攀登珠穆朗玛峰是当今最极限的运动 (Climbing Everest is the extreme sport du jour)

越来越多的人成功登顶，但也有更多的人在途中丧生。 (More people are reaching the summit, but more people are dying on the way, too)

珠穆朗玛峰探险公司 葛雷尔着。画廊出版社；352页；售价29.99美元和20英镑

Everest, Inc. By Will Cockrell. Gallery Books; 352 pages; $29.99 and £20

攀登珠穆朗玛峰曾经是一个需要惊人的勇气、耐力和技能的壮举。自1953年埃德蒙德·希拉里爵士和丹增诺盖首次登顶以来的40年里，平均每年有12人效仿其脚步。到了2023年，超过1200人尝试攀登，其中655人成功登顶。

Climbing Mount Everest used to be a feat of staggering bravery, endurance and skill. In the 40 years after Sir Edmund Hillary and Tenzing Norgay first reached the summit in 1953, an average of 12 people a year followed in their footsteps. In 2023 more than 1,200 people attempted the climb, with 655 making it to the top.

一度被视为“几乎肯定致命”的冒险，现在被威尔·科克雷尔，一位记者，在《珠穆朗玛峰探险公司》这本引人入胜的新书中称为“新铁人三项赛”。高科技装备和对高海拔生理影响的更好理解为珠穆朗玛峰吸引了新的渴望者。但珠穆朗玛峰征服者人数增加最大的原因是专业引导行业的建立。经验丰富的登山者会以高额费用——在35,000至110,000美元之间——让新手登上世界之巅。

What was once an “almost certainly fatal” endeavour is “the new Ironman triathlon”, argues Will Cockrell, a journalist, in “Everest, Inc”, a fascinating new book. High-tech equipment and better understanding of the physiological impact of high altitudes have brought new hopefuls to Everest. But the biggest reason for the rising number of Everest conquerors is the establishment of a professional guiding industry. For a hefty fee—between $35,000 and $110,000—experienced climbers will put novices on top of the world.

与许多极限运动一样，珠穆朗玛峰提供了一种考验。业余爱好者想知道自己是否能完成一项在身体和精神上都具有挑战性的事情。一些心理学家认为，人们进行大力壮举是为了否认自己的不朽性。科克雷尔先生认为，这有助于解释为什么有人报道登山的死亡后，对攀登珠穆朗玛峰的兴趣会增加：如果人们想起其危险性，他们就更容易被冒险吸引。

As with many extreme sports, Everest offers a test. Amateurs want to know if they can achieve something physically and mentally demanding. According to some psychologists, people undertake Herculean endeavours to deny their own mortality. Mr Cockrell believes this helps explain why interest in climbing Everest increases after deaths are reported: people are more attracted to the adventure if they are reminded of its dangers.

引导行业的存在在很大程度上是因为一个鲁莽却不可抗拒的人物迪克·巴斯。这位石油财富继承者拥有一个疯狂的想法，即要攀登七大洲的最高山峰。他花钱参加了三次不同的珠穆朗玛峰探险活动，在1985年，55岁的他成为最年长且经验最少的登山者登顶。一个普通人站在世界之巅的场景引发了媒体狂热，也带来了可以迎合新的旅游需求的公司的建立。

The guiding industry exists in large part because of a foolhardy but irresistible character called Dick Bass. The heir to an oil fortune, Bass had the lunatic idea of climbing the highest mountains on all seven continents. He bought his way onto three different Everest expeditions and, in 1985, aged 55, he became both the oldest and least experienced climber to reach the summit. The sight of an average Joe on top of the world generated a media frenzy—and the establishment of companies that could cater to the new demand for tours.

20世纪90年代早期的引导探险大多取得了成功。在1992年至1995年间，约有150人付费让人带领登山，其中三分之一成功登顶。但在1996年，美国作家乔恩·克拉考尔加入了两次同时进行的探险活动之一，情况出现了问题。一场风暴“像钢琴一样掉在登山者头上”。向顶峰进发的引导者延迟了让客户回头的决定。三名向导和两名登山者死亡。在畅销书《雪线之上》中，克拉考尔先生认为，珠穆朗玛峰已经变成高端旅游陷阱。他谴责了向导的判断和缺乏经验的登山者的自私行为。许多企业认为这本书会让他们垮掉。相反，对珠穆朗玛峰的兴趣飙升。

The early years of guided expeditions in the 1990s were mostly successful. In 1992-95, around 150 people paid to be led up the mountain, and a third succeeded. But in 1996, Jon Krakauer, an American writer, joined one of two simultaneous expeditions that went wrong. A storm “dropped down on the climbers like a piano on a cartoon character”. The guides, eager for their clients to reach the top, delayed turning them around. Three guides and two climbers died. In a bestselling book, “Into Thin Air”, Mr Krakauer argued that Everest had become a high-end tourist trap. He decried the judgment of the guides and the selfishness of inexperienced climbers. Many businesses assumed that the bookwould crush them. Instead, fascination with Everest soared.

这一行业依赖当地劳工。大量的尼泊尔人被西方公司聘用来安装绳索和为客户搬运装备。引导公司努力与尼泊尔地面团队建立持久关系。但科克雷尔先生指出，“西方人和夏尔巴人攀登山峰的原因差异很大。”

The industry has depended on local labour. Large numbers of Nepalis were hired by companies in the West to install ropes and carry equipment for clients. The guiding firms made efforts to build lasting relationships with their teams on the ground. But, Mr Cockrell notes, “The reasons Westerners and Sherpas were climbing mountains remained very different.”

2010年代发生了两起事故造成了改变。2014年，16名夏尔巴人在搬运客户装备时被掉落的冰雪埋葬。他们的同事罢工，迫使本季活动取消。然后，在2015年，一场雪崩造成了十名夏尔巴人和九名外国客户的死亡。事后，许多西方运营商对珠穆朗玛峰失去了热情；如今所有最大的引导公司都由尼泊尔人拥有。

Two accidents in the 2010s brought change. In 2014, 16 Sherpas were buried by falling ice while transporting clients’ gear. Their colleagues went on strike and forced the cancellation of the season. Then, in 2015, an avalanche killed ten Sherpas and nine foreign clients. In the aftermath, many Western operators lost their enthusiasm for Everest; today all the biggest guiding firms are Nepali-owned.

《珠穆朗玛峰探险公司》以一个令人困惑的音符结束。越来越多的人登顶，但在途中丧生的人也越来越多：2023年有18人死亡，这是有史以来最高的数字。尼泊尔当局表示气候变化导致了更加极端的天气。科克雷尔先生认为，公司并没有疏忽。他认为尼泊尔向导认为自己是后勤服务业者，通常将安全决策留给客户。

“Everest, Inc” ends on a confounding note. More people are reaching the summit, but more are dying en route, too: 18 people perished in 2023, the highest-ever number. Nepalese authorities say climate change has caused more extreme weather. Mr Cockrell argues that there was no negligence on the part of the firms. He suggests that Nepali guides consider themselves in the logistics business and generally leave decisions of safety to clients.

但业余登山者会做出糟糕的选择。1996年的灾难表明，即使是向导也会做出错误的决定。专家们比以往任何时候更了解如何安全通过珠穆朗玛峰。但这并不能让那里成为一个安全的地方。■

But amateur climbers make bad choices. The disaster in 1996 showed that even guides get these decisions wrong. Experts know more than ever about how to navigate Everest safely. But that does not make it a safe place. ■

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文化 | 东线的全部宁静 (Culture | All quiet about the Eastern Front)

大部分一战命运在东线决定 (Much of the Great War was decided in the east)

一部新历史认为东线备受忽视但具有重大影响。 (A new history argues the Eastern Front gets less attention but was hugely consequential)

东线。尼克·劳埃德（Nick Lloyd）著。北欧人出版社（Viking）；672页；30英镑。将于8月在美国由W·W·诺顿（W.W. Norton）出版；42美元

The Eastern Front. By Nick Lloyd. Viking; 672 pages; £30. To be published in America by W.W. Norton in August; $42

年仅29岁的卡尔一世急切地希望带领奥地利匈牙利走出第一次世界大战。在他的长期统治者大叔去世后（他长达68年统治），卡尔于1916年11月加冕为哈布斯堡皇帝。尽管帝国在弓手弗朗茨·斐迪南（Franz Ferdinand）于1914年6月被一名激进的塞尔维亚民族主义者暗杀后引发了冲突，但如今卡尔只能看到这场噩梦般的代价。奥地利匈牙利的愈发不堪一击、混杂着多种语言的军队在五个月前遭遇俄罗斯将军亚历克谢·布鲁西洛夫的毁灭性打击。为了运转，它依赖于盟友德国。维也纳正遭受饥荒。但秘密和谈毫无进展，奥地利匈牙利被拖入德国的灾难之中。

Just 29 years old, Karl I was desperate to lead Austria-Hungary out of the first world war. He was crowned as Habsburg emperor in November 1916 after the death of his great uncle, who had ruled for 68 years. Though the empire had been instrumental in starting the conflict following the assassination of its archduke, Franz Ferdinand, in June 1914 by a militant Serb nationalist, now Karl could see only the nightmarish cost. Austria-Hungary’s increasingly ramshackle, polyglot army had suffered devastating lossesat the hands of Aleksei Brusilov, a Russian general, five months earlier. To function it depended on its ally, Germany. Vienna was starving. But secret peace talks went nowhere, and Austria-Hungary was dragged limpingly along in Germany’s wake to disaster.

最终流亡到马德拉的卡尔于1922年死于肺炎。尽管失败，卡尔因其促和努力于82年后被教皇宣福。他是尼克·劳埃德在第一次世界大战东线叙事中少数几位备受同情的人物之一，也是少数几位对大战结局有所感知的人。然而，除了普通士兵的英勇和坚韧外，这是一个关于虚荣、愚昧、无能和冷酷的故事。

Karl, ultimately exiled in Madeira, died from pneumonia in 1922. Though unsuccessful, Karl was beatified by the pope 82 years later for his peacemaking efforts. He is one of a small number of sympathetic figures in Nick Lloyd’s superb history of the Eastern Front in the first world war and one of even fewer who had some inkling of how it might end. But apart from the heroism and resilience of the ordinary soldiers, this is a story of vainglory, cynicism, incompetence and callousness.

对于大战的迷恋依然存在。尽管后来发生了规模更大的冲突以及更多的死亡，但这个称号仍然留存。虽然有许多关于第一次世界大战西线的书籍，但对东线的叙述却几乎被忽视。伦敦国王学院（King’s College London）的现代战争教授劳埃德先生几乎50年来第一次创作了一部英文关于东线的主要历史著作。

Fascination with the Great War endures. The name has stuck despite the even larger conflict—and death toll—that came later. Though the books devoted to the first world war’s Western Front are extensive, the story of the Eastern Front has been mostly neglected. Mr Lloyd, a professor of modern warfare at King’s College London, has produced the first major history of the Eastern Front in English in nearly 50 years.

第一次世界大战牵涉到32个国家；其东线延伸超过900英里，“从波罗的海到阿尔卑斯山，从喀尔巴阡山脉到爱琴海沿岸”。一些最激烈的战斗发生在加利西亚，该地区今天包括了乌克兰西部。这与在西线上的战争迥然不同，在那里，双方军队除了在开头和结束阶段外，一直被局限在高度密集、战壕阻塞的僵局之中。而在东部，往往有空间和地形进行机动战和正面战斗，甚至有可能发生惊心动魄的骑兵冲破局势的情形。

The first world war drew in 32 countries; its Eastern Front stretched over 900 miles “from the Baltic to the Alps, from the peaks of the Carpathians to the shores of the Aegean”. Some of the fiercest fighting was in Galicia, a region that includes what is today western Ukraine. It was very different from the war on the Western Front where, other than in its opening and closing stages, the armies of both sides were locked into a highly concentrated, trench-bound stalemate. In the east, there was often the space and terrain for manoeuvre warfare and pitched battles—and even the potential for dramatic, cavalry-led breakthroughs.

尽管更为灵活，东线的致命性与其西部对应地一样高，这是由于现代炮兵和机枪的破坏力。劳埃德先生估计，两个注定失败的帝国——俄罗斯和奥地利匈牙利，分别损失了超过230万和120万人。大约有45万德国人可能在东线战场阵亡。由于战斗不那么静态，以及满腔族群仇恨，与西部相比，更多的平民在东线死亡或被迫流离失所。

Although more fluid, the Eastern Front was as lethal as its Western counterpart, due to the destructive power of modern artillery and the machine gun. Mr Lloyd estimates that the two doomed empires, Russia and Austria-Hungary, lost upwards of 2.3m and 1.2m men respectively. Some 450,000 Germans were probably killed on the Eastern Front. Because the fighting was less static but also because of simmering ethnic hatreds, many more civilians died or were displaced than in the west.

当温斯顿·丘吉尔在他关于第一次世界大战的第六卷也是最后一卷著作中，于1931年对东线述及时，将其描述为“历史上最伟大的战争”，也是自罗马帝国灭亡以来“降临人类最可怕不幸”。然而，这本书被称为“未知之战”。

When Winston Churchill wrote about the Eastern Front in his sixth and final volume on the Great War, published in 1931, he described it as both the “greatest war in history” and the “most frightful misfortune” to fall upon mankind since the destruction of the Roman Empire. Yet the book was called “The Unknown War”.

一些个别情节仍被记得，比如战争初期的坦能堡之战中俄国的失败，以及布鲁西洛夫的进攻，这是俄国最为重大且血腥的军事行动，导致双方在三个月内共有近250万人伤亡。但很多事情已经被人遗忘，包括在东线各战区的战事进程以及双方采取的战略。劳埃德先生在其引人入胜的细节中，重新唤起了这一切记忆。

Some individual episodes are still remembered, such as the Russian loss at Tannenberg early in the war and Brusilov’s offensive, which was Russia’s greatest and bloodiest feat of arms, resulting in nearly 2.5m casualties on both sides in three months. But so much has been forgotten, including the course of the war in the east across multiple theatres of operation and the strategies pursued by both sides. It is all this and more that Mr Lloyd has resurrected in compelling detail.

与如此庞大的对抗力量不同，所有三个主要交战国最终都成为失败者。俄国在1917年陷入混乱的革命；奥地利匈牙利苦苦挣扎的帝国在1919年正式解体；德国在西线遭遇了耻辱性的失败。

Unusually for such a vast confrontation of forces, all three major belligerents ended up as losers. Russia collapsed into chaotic revolution in 1917; Austria-Hungary’s stricken empire was formally dissolved in 1919; Germany met with humiliating defeat on the Western Front.

第一次世界大战重新绘制了世界地图。如今中东和乌克兰的冲突持续不断，一些人可能不愿意去探讨过去的残酷冲突，但这场具有极其重大后果的战争仍然需要被关注。正如德裔美国历史学家弗里茨·施特恩（Fritz Stern）悲痛地观察到的那样，这场冲突是“20世纪的第一场灾难，所有其他灾难由此而来”。未知的东线战争的灾难与随后发生的一切是密不可分的。 ■

The first world war redrew the world map. With conflict raging in the Middle East and Ukraine today, some might find the prospect of turning to a story of gruesome conflict from the past unattractive. But it was such a painfully consequential war that it continues to demand attention. As the German-American historian, Fritz Stern, ruefully observed, the conflict was “the first calamity of the 20th century, the calamity from which all other calamities sprang”. The calamity of the “unknown” Eastern Front is inseparable from everything that occurred afterwards. ■

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文化 | 背景故事 (Culture | Back Story)

萨尔曼·鲁什迪关于被刺事件的引人入胜叙述 (Salman Rushdie’s gripping take on being stabbed)

《刀》是关于2022年袭击的回忆录，同时也是一个爱情故事。 (“Knife” is a memoir about the attack in 2022 but also a love story)

在新回忆录《刀》中，萨尔曼·拉什迪写道，“三个重要的角色”，讲述了他在2022年8月被刺重伤以及艰难康复的经历。头两个角色是可预见的：作者和持刀袭击者。第三个角色将这个充满暴力的编年史变成了一个令人惊讶的温柔和救赎的故事。

There are, writes Sir Salman Rushdie, “three important characters” in “Knife”, a new memoir of his near-fatal stabbing in August 2022 and his arduous recovery. The first two are predictable: the author and his blade-wielding assailant. The third character turns this chronicle of violence into a surprisingly tender and redemptive story.

萨尔曼爵士正准备在纽约北部的一个节日上演讲时，一个身穿黑衣的男子冲向舞台。他的第一个念头是：“所以是你。你来了。”离伊朗的鲁霍拉·霍梅尼因他的小说《撒旦诗篇》中被指控亵渎而呼吁对他进行暗杀已经过去33年。自从在英国接受多年警察保护后，他已经移居美国20多年。现在，半期待、仍然令人惊讶的刺客逼近了他。“我举起左手进行自卫。他将刀插入我的左手。”

Sir Salman was about to speak at a festival in upstate New York when a black-clad man charged the stage. His first thought was: “So it’s you. Here you are.” It was 33 years since Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini of Iran had called for his death because of the alleged blasphemy of his novel, “The Satanic Verses”. It was more than 20 since he moved to America after years of police protection in Britain. Now the half-expected, still-astonishing assassin was upon him. “I raise my left hand in self-defence. He plunges the knife into it.”

以及插入他的颈部、面部、腹部和眼睛——在短短27秒的疯狂中造成了15处伤口。他指出，暴力对其受害者来说是令人困惑的：“现实消解了，被不可理解的事物所取代。” 但他足够警觉以认识到这是终结。在这本既富有激情又不幻想的书籍中，他明确表示并没有超然体验：“我的身体正在死去，而我也将随之而去。” 他看起来不太可能存活下来，但他接受了缝合和钉扎。他的失明眼睛从眼眶里凸出“像个大软煮蛋”。

And into his neck, face, abdomen and eye—15 wounds in a 27-second frenzy. Violence, he notes, is confounding to its victims: “Reality dissolves and is replaced by the incomprehensible.” But he was alert enough to think this was the end. In a book that is both passionate and illusionless, he is clear there was no out-of-body experience: “My body was dying and it was taking me with it.” He seemed unlikely to survive but was stitched and stapled together. His blinded eye bulged from its socket “like a large soft-boiled egg”.

只有几周后，萨尔曼爵士才在镜子中看到了他那张毁容的脸。当他离开医院时，还有更多的惊吓、治疗和噩梦。他梦到了《李尔王》中的格洛斯特的被致盲；他想到了《审判》里杀死卡夫卡的主人公的刀。在《刀》的配角中还有刀本身——既是一种冰冷、尖锐的物体，又是对仇恨、狂热和生活裂缝的隐喻。

Only after a few weeks did Sir Salman see his disfigured face in the mirror. When he left hospital there were more scares and treatments and nightmares. He dreamed of the blinding of Gloucester in “King Lear”; he thought of the knife that kills Kafka’s protagonist in “The Trial”. Among the supporting cast in “Knife” is the knife itself—at once a cold, sharp object and a metaphor for hatred, fanaticism and life’s ruptures.

他断断续续地想到第二个角色，那位年轻的黎巴嫩裔美国人，他对谋杀未遂和袭击的指控表示无罪，而且通常几乎没有打开《撒旦诗篇》。没有提及他的名字——他是“我的袭击者”，然后是“A”——萨尔曼爵士在是否想要面对他之间犹豫。相反，他编造了一个滑稽而认真的对话，探讨了想象中嫌疑人关于信仰、失败和孤独的事。“你没有能力理解我，”嫌疑人坚称。站在那位真实男子等待审判的监狱外面，萨尔曼爵士有了跳舞的冲动。

Intermittently he thinks of the second character, the young Lebanese-American who has pleaded not guilty to attempted murder and assault, and who, typically, had barely opened “The Satanic Verses”. Omitting his name—he is “My Assailant”, then “the A”—Sir Salman wavers over whether he wants to confront him. Instead he makes up a jokey-serious dialogue between them, probing the imaginary suspect about faith, failure and loneliness. “You aren’t capable of understanding me,” the suspect insists. Standing outside the jail where the real man was awaiting trial, Sir Salman had an urge to dance.

他所想要的只是成为一名小说家，但伊朗最高领袖和那把刀使他成为了全球自由言论的倡导者。他在这里重新肯定了言论自由的价值。“没有艺术，”他写道，“我们思考、看到新事物和更新世界的能力将枯萎而死。” 他谴责了“偏执者和独裁者”的“虚假叙事”，赞美开放和辩论。“语言就是我的刀，”他宣称，“是我用来重塑和夺回我的世界的工具。”

All he wanted was to be a novelist, but the ayatollah and the knife have made him a global champion of free speech. He reaffirms its value here. “Without art,” he writes, “our ability to think, to see freshly, and to renew our world would wither and die.” He decries the “false narratives” of bigots and autocrats and extols openness and debate. “Language was my knife,” he avers, “the tool I would use to remake and reclaim my world.”

然而，《刀》中对暴力的主要回应来自第三个主要角色：瑞秋·伊莉莎·格里菲斯，一个美国作家和摄影师，也是萨尔曼爵士的第五任妻子。他详细描述了让他们相遇并相爱的那些“抛硬币的时刻”，他的狂热迷恋和最终的求婚。所有这一切不仅仅是一篇热情洋溢的赞美诗：它对他潜在主题至关重要。

Yet the principal riposte to the brutality in “Knife” comes from its third main character: Rachel Eliza Griffiths, an American writer and photographer and Sir Salman’s fifth wife. In forensic detail, he recounts the “coin-toss moments” that led them to meet and fall in love, his giddy infatuation and eventual proposal. All this is more than a gushy ode: it is essential to his underlying themes.

其中一个主题是时间。在舞台上，他接下来的想法是：“为什么是现在？”那个持刀男子是“一个谋杀的鬼魂”，试图“把我拉回过去”。他发现，过去既不可逃脱又是固定不变的。他对袭击提出了许多问题和“如果”，包括为什么他“像个沙袋一样站在那里”。他几乎退出了讲演，但需要这笔费用来支付空调账单。然而，他知道，时间不允许后悔。由于瑞秋，他最终也不希望如此：“没有我们昨日的灾难，我们今天将不会是我们自己。”

One of those is time. His next thought, up on that stage, was: “Why now?” The knifeman was “a murderous ghost” seeking “to drag me back in time”. The past, he sees, is both inescapable and fixed. He poses lots of questions and what-ifs about the assault, including why he “just stood there like a piñata”. He nearly pulled out of the talk but needed the fee for an air-conditioning bill. He knows, though, that time allows no do-overs. Nor, because of Eliza, does he ultimately want it to: “We would not be who we are today without the calamities of our yesterdays.”

他的另一个深层主题是在一个暗淡世界中生存的挑战；或者说，人类本性的谜团。当看客们制服了他的袭击者并救了他的命时，他“经历了最糟和最好”两种情况。然而，最重要的是，对邪恶的抵制来自于瑞秋的爱和奉献，与她一起，萨尔曼重建了“一种受伤的幸福”。

His other deep theme is the challenge of living in a bleak world; or, to put it another way, the riddle of human nature. He “experienced both the worst and best” when onlookers tackled his attacker and saved his life. Above all, however, the counterbalance to evil is the love and devotion of Eliza, with whom Sir Salman salvaged “a wounded happiness”.

《刀》是关于被刺的爱情故事，这种矛盾体现在袭击和另一场中心场面之间的扭曲对称中。在遇见瑞秋的那个晚上，萨尔曼不小心撞进玻璃门；他躺在地板上，鲜血从脸上流下，直到她照顾了他。然后，他站了起来，胜利地，如今他再次站了起来。■

“Knife” is a love story about being stabbed, a paradox captured in the skewed symmetry between the attack and another central scene. On the night he met Eliza, Sir Salman walked klutzily into a glass door; he lay on the floor, blood streaming down his face, until she ministered to him. He got up then, and, triumphantly, he has risen again now. ■

阅读更多来自我们关于文化的专栏回顾：

Read more from Back Story, our column on culture:Kate Winslet explores how to be a good autocrat (Mar 19th)Infatuation, kids, adultery: marriage is the theme of the Oscars (Mar 7th)“The Picture of Dorian Gray” points to the future of theatre (Feb 29th)

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2024年4月20日的本周世界大事。 (The world this week April 20th 2024)

本周封面 (This week’s cover)

我们看待世界的方式 (How we saw the world)

对Z世代感到高兴的理由 (Reasons to be cheerful about Generation Z)

他们不注定贫困和焦虑 (They are not doomed to be poor and anxious)

印度的民主需要更强大的反对派 (India’s democracy needs a stronger opposition)

国大党在世界最大选举中将会受挫。 (The Congress party is set for a drubbing in the world’s biggest election)

以色列不应急于对伊朗展开报复 (Israel should not rush to strike back at Iran)

相反，应尝试对伊朗的导弹袭击作出新颖回应：保持克制 (Instead it should try a novel response to Iran’s missile attack: restraint)

如何吸引更多人穿上军装 (How to get more people into military uniforms)

为什么强制兵役对一些国家有意义，而对另一些国家则没有 (Why mandatory military service makes sense for some countries but not others)

美国的利率今年不太可能下降 (America’s interest rates are unlikely to fall this year)

这将对金融市场和世界经济造成挤压。 (That will squeeze financial markets and the world economy)

美国针对中国生物科技的举措将伤害国内患者 (America’s moves against Chinese biotech will hurt patients at home)

“生物安全法案”背后的动机令人费解。 (The motives behind the BIOSECURE act are muddy)

为什么这么多中国应届毕业生找不到工作 (Why so many Chinese graduates cannot find work)

我们的数据分析表明，他们的困境可能比以前认为的更严重。 (Our number-crunching suggests that their plight could be much worse than previously thought)

中国正在与台湾新领导人交流，只是没有直接对话 (China is talking to Taiwan’s next leader, just not directly)

北京官员希望这个岛国的新总统更像过去的那位 (Officials in Beijing want the island’s new president to be more like one from the past)

审视困扰中国北方的毛绒 (Examining the fluff that frustrates northern China)

一项改善环境的努力带来了意想不到的后果。 (An effort to improve the environment has had unintended consequences)

变老的阴暗面 (The dark side of growing old)

一波即将到来的老年痴呆症和其他形式的痴呆将考验中国的极限。 (A coming wave of Alzheimer’s and other forms of dementia will test China to its limits)

唐纳德·特朗普的首次刑事审判将既具有重大意义又俗不可耐 (Donald Trump’s first criminal trial will be both momentous and tawdry)

但这真的重要吗？ (But will it even matter?)

美国对其机构的信任已经崩溃 (America’s trust in its institutions has collapsed)

后果是什么？ (What are the consequences?)

对无家可归的人下达罚单是残忍和不寻常的惩罚吗？ (Is ticketing homeless people a cruel and unusual punishment?)

这个问题让西方城市感到困惑。最高法院将会进行裁决。 (The question has confounded western cities. The Supreme Court will weigh in)

白宫公布了一对糟糕的政策来拉拢选民 (The White House unveils a pair of bad policies to woo voters)

钢铁工人征收关税，学生获得贷款宽免，两者皆属于逆向税。 (Tariffs for steelworkers and loan forgiveness for students are both regressive)

许多州立法者相信与芬太尼接触会致命 (Lots of state legislators believe any contact with fentanyl is fatal)

（事实并非如此） ((It is not))

两个德克萨斯州小镇如何成为美国的专利法中心 (How two small Texas towns became the patent-law centre of America)

企业家精神的法官是好还是坏？ (Are entrepreneurial judges a good or a bad thing?)

真相社交对于唐纳德·特朗普来说是一个令人震惊的胜利 (Truth Social is a mind-bending win for Donald Trump)

也是如何他动摇了美国人现实的令人不安的证据。 (And disturbing evidence of how he destabilises reality for Americans)

生成式人工智能是一种奇迹。它也是建立在盗窃之上吗？ (Generative AI is a marvel. Is it also built on theft?)

这项奇迹般的技术面临侵犯版权的指控。 (The wonder-technology faces accusations of copyright infringement)

谁将领导LVMH奢侈帝国? (Who will lead the LVMH luxury empire?)

伯纳德·阿诺预测他的接班人 (Bernard Arnault sizes up his heirs apparent)

唤醒斯克拉布的教训 (The lessons of woke Scrabble)

当传统遇上创新。 (When heritage meets innovation)

美国针对中国生物技术及其本国制药商 (America hits Chinese biotech—and its own drugmakers)

国会中的一项全面法案可能让国内患者付出代价。 (A sweeping bill in Congress could cost patients at home)

本报告季使CEO们忧心忡忡的是什么？ (What is weighing on CEOs’ minds this earnings season?)

股东信函证明了它们的悲观预言。 (Shareholder letters are proving to be bleakly prophetic)

你愿意为国家献出生命吗？ (Would you really die for your country?)

富裕国家的征兵制度已经成为议程上的热门话题。 (Military conscription is on the agenda in the rich world)

Z世代富有空前 (Generation Z is unprecedentedly rich)

千禧一代在这个阶段更加贫困。婴儿潮一代也是。 (Millennials were poorer at this stage in their lives. So were baby-boomers)

为何股市正在消失 (Why the stockmarket is disappearing)

字节跳动、OpenAI和Stripe等大公司选择保持私人所有制 (Large companies such as ByteDance, OpenAI and Stripe are staying private)

中国更好的经济增长掩盖了令人担忧的原因 (China’s better economic growth hides reasons to worry)

该国领导人对通缩过于自满。 (The country’s leaders are too complacent about deflation)

俄罗斯冻结的资产将很快为乌克兰的战争买单 (Frozen Russian assets will soon pay for Ukraine’s war)

而美国现在希望说服其他国家更好地利用这笔资金。 (And America now hopes to convince others to make better use of the stash)

即使在海湾没有战争，更昂贵的汽油也会长期存在 (Even without war in the Gulf, pricier petrol is here to stay)

昂贵的石油可能让唐纳德·特朗普入主白宫。 (Expensive oil could put Donald Trump in the White House)

花旗集团，华尔街最大赔钱者，终于走好运了 (Citigroup, Wall Street’s biggest loser, is at last on the up)

简·弗雷泽的意外成功 (Jane Fraser’s unexpected success)

IMF能解决贫困世界的债务危机吗? (Can the IMF solve the poor world’s debt crisis?)

如果需要为提供救济而排除中国，该基金将这样做。 (The fund will freeze out China if that is what it takes to offer relief)

大型语言模型变得越来越庞大且效果更佳 (Large language models are getting bigger and better)