经济学人 (The Economist)

本周世界 | 经济学人 (The world this week | The Economist)

本周封面故事 (This week’s covers)

我们眼中的世界 (How we saw the world)

人工智能能够改变医疗保健吗？这是本周由我们的健康编辑娜塔莎·洛德（Natasha Loder）撰写的《科技季刊》所关注的问题，我们在美国和亚洲的封面上也进行了报道。

Can artificial intelligence transform health care? That is the question at the heart of this week’s Technology Quarterly, written by our health editor, Natasha Loder, and which we featured on our cover in America and Asia.

我们最初的想法是用一个芯片作为背景来插图维特鲁威人。正如你所看到的，莱昂纳多·达·芬奇这周到处可见：他还是《蒙娜丽莎》的幕后创作者。

Our first idea was to illustrate the Vitruvian man with a chip in the background. As you can see, Leonardo da Vinci is all over this week’s paper: he was also the hand behind the Mona Lisa.

我们认为我们的封面应该与《科技季刊》有关。 人工智能正在引发世界范围内的兴奋和夸大，但在医疗保健方面，它有潜力带来变革。正如《科技季刊》所描述的，它承诺提供更好的诊断、为患者提供个性化支持、加快药物发现速度和提高效率。在欧洲，分析师预测人工智能每年可以拯救数十万人的生命。

We thought that our cover should refer to the TQ. Artificial intelligence is generating excitement and hyperbole everywhere, but in health care it has the potential to be transformational. As the TQ describes, it promises better diagnoses, personalised support for patients, faster drug discovery and greater efficiency. In Europe analysts predict that it could save hundreds of thousands of lives each year.

领导文章：AI医生最终会见到您 科技季刊：一个新处方

在本周的欧洲封面中，我们关注了对欧洲经济构成严重冲击，包括实际和潜在的冲击。部分原因是随着俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之后能源价格的飙升，欧盟的GDP在本十年仅增长了4%，而美国的增长率为8%。更糟糕的是，欧洲面临来自中国的廉价进口激增。在一年之内，唐纳德·特朗普可能回到白宫，对欧洲的出口征收大规模关税。

Leader: The AI doctor will see you…eventuallyTechnology Quarterly: A new prescription

我们最初的想法是用一个花瓣腐烂的花朵和一枚欧元硬币来插图即将到来的灾难。欧洲的不幸时运尤为不妙。美国对乌克兰的支持已经枯竭，而能源过渡还有很长的路要走。人口急剧老龄化、繁重的监管以及不充分的市场一体化继续阻碍着增长。幻灭的欧洲选民越来越倾向于支持德国的另类选择等极右翼政党。

On our cover in Europe this week we looked at three severe shocks, actual and potential, to the continent’s economy. Partly because of the jump in energy prices that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European Union’s GDP has grown by only 4% this decade, compared with 8% in America. As if that were not bad enough, Europe faces a surge of cheap imports from China. And within a year Donald Trump could be back in the White House, slapping huge tariffs on Europe’s exports.

但是这个画面暗示着我们正在写涉及欧元区20个国家的内容。而事实上，这种冲击威胁整个大陆，包括英国在内。

Our first idea was to illustrate the impending blight with a flower with rotting blue petals and a euro coin. Europe’s misfortune is particularly ill-timed. American support for Ukraine has dried up and the energy transition has much further to run. A fast-ageing population, overbearing regulators and inadequate market integration continue to hold back growth. Disillusioned European voters are increasingly liable to support hard-right parties such as the Alternative for Germany.

我们的第二个想法是插上皱巴巴的欧元纸币。但这个画面并不仅仅局限于货币联盟。相反，它隐含了我们希望在领导文章中成为核心部分的第四种危险。尽管欧洲面临的冲击是无法控制的，但欧洲政策制定者的错误可能会极大加剧损害。

But the image implies that we are writing about the 20 countries in the single currency. In reality, the shocks threaten the entire continent—including Britain.

我们还考虑过古典典故 —— 一个被红色箭头缠绕的向下指示的雕塑，是因为这些错误部分源于欧洲理解得到的但又望后疑前的强烈愿望，希望保存产业和就业岗位。

How about our second idea, a crumpled euro note? Somehow, the image is not limited to the currency union. Instead it hints at a fourth danger that we wanted to be a central part of our leader. Although the shocks facing Europe are outside its control, errors from Europe’s own policymakers could greatly aggravate the damage.

其中一个错误就是在经济政策在脆弱时过于紧缩来对抗通胀的上一场战争。如果中央银行在经济陷入停滞，阻止被裁员工人找到新工作的情况下，应对外部干扰将更容易。

We also thought about a classical allusion—a sculpture of a man with a red arrow wrapped around it, pointing downwards—because those errors stem partly from Europe’s understandable but backward-looking urge to preserve industries and jobs.

另一个错误将是效仿美国和中国的保护主义，给予受青睐产业大规模补贴。中国最近的经济困境展示了过度政府计划的弊端而非优点。

One error would be to fight the previous war against inflation by keeping economic policy too tight at a moment of vulnerability. It will be easier to cope with disruption from outside if central banks keep the economy out of a slump that would stop displaced workers finding new jobs.

不幸的是，看起来这个雕塑正与繁文缛节纠缠不清。古典意象很好，但我们想要更加精准的东西。

Another error would be to copy America’s and China’s protectionism by giving vast subsidies to favoured industries. China’s recent economic woes demonstrate the flaws, not the virtues, of excessive government planning.

当我们看到蒙娜·丽莎的画面时，我们知道我们找到了我们想要的东西。她不仅经历了一个恶劣的冲击；她还穿上了朋克风。这暗示着欧洲需要摒弃过去，制定属于自己的、与时俱进的经济政策。

Unfortunately, it looked as if the sculpture was grappling with red tape. Classical imagery was good, but we wanted something more precise.

即使美国对工业大肆投入公共资金，欧洲应该选择在基础设施、教育和研发上进行支出。与其效仿中国的干预主义，欧洲应该注意中国公司从庞大国内市场中获益的优点。整合欧洲服务市场，解决贸易仍然困难的问题，有助于企业增长，奖励创新，并填补部分失去的制造业岗位。

When we saw the image of Mona Lisa, we knew we had what we were after. She has not only received a nasty shock; she’s also gone punk. And that nods towards Europe’s need to junk the past and forge its own, up-to-the-moment economic policy.

这个激动人心的封面几乎完成了，但我们中的一些人想要将这三次冲击与我们现代版的蒙娜·丽莎联系起来。所以我们的设计师设计了一些火丸，漂浮在她的左肩上。人们常说，闪电不会两次劈中同一个地方。它却威胁着三次劈中欧洲。

Even as America showers industry with public money, Europe should instead spend on infrastructure, education, and research and development. Rather than emulate China’s interventionism, Europe should note the benefit Chinese firms derive from a vast domestic market. Integrating Europe’s market for services, where trade remains difficult, would help firms grow, reward innovation and replace some lost manufacturing jobs.

The hair-raising cover was almost ready, but some of us wanted to tie in the triple shock with our modern Mona Lisa. So our designers came up with some firebolts over her left shoulder. They say lightning never strikes twice. It threatens to strike Europe three times.

Leader: The triple shock facing Europe’s economyArticle: Europe’s economy is under attack from all sides

回到目录

这个星期的世界 (The world this week)

政治 (Politics)

一切都凝聚在象征意义上。 (It’s all about the symbolism)

武装分子袭击了莫斯科附近的一家音乐厅，造成至少139人丧生。这是自2004年别斯兰学校围困事件以来，俄罗斯发生的最为致命的恐怖袭击事件。中亚伊斯兰国附属组织声称对此负责。据称，四名被指控参与袭击的袭击者身受重伤，出庭接受恐怖主义指控。当局表示，这些人来自塔吉克斯坦。美国驻莫斯科大使馆在三月初曾提前警告可能发生的袭击，告诉其公民避免参加大型聚会。俄罗斯无视了这一警告。与此相反，弗拉基米尔·普京和俄罗斯媒体却公然试图将袭击事件与乌克兰联系起来。一家电视频道播放了一段乌克兰官员为此高兴的虚假视频片段。

Gunmen attacked a concert hall near Moscow, killing at least 139 people. It was Russia’s deadliest terrorist incident since the Beslan school siege in 2004. An affiliate of Islamic State in Central Asia claimed responsibility. Four of the alleged attackers appeared in court, severely bruised and beaten, to face charges of terrorism. The authorities say the men are from Tajikistan. The American embassy in Moscow had warned of an attack in early March, telling its citizens to avoid large gatherings. Russia ignored the warning. Vladimir Putin and Russian media have instead brazenly tried to link the attack to Ukraine. One television channel aired fake video clips of a Ukrainian official crowing over the incident.

乌克兰遭受了俄罗斯无人机和导弹的加剧攻击，这些攻击在莫斯科发生伊斯兰国袭击前不久升级。乌克兰首都基辅遭受打击，全国各地的能源基础设施遭到瞄准。当俄罗斯的导弹偏离轨道进入波兰空域时，波兰紧急出动战斗机。

Russia intensified its drone and missile assaults on Ukraine, stepping them up shortly before the IS attack in Moscow. Kyiv, the capital, was hit and energy infrastructure targeted across the country. Poland scrambled fighter jets when a Russian missile strayed into its air space.

保加利亚似乎正朝着召开另一次选举迈进，这将是该国三年来的第六次选举，因为该国政党未能就“团结”政府达成一致协议，这威胁着保加利亚计划于2025年初采用欧元作为货币。极右翼和亲俄兰党派正在壮大。

Bulgaria seemed to be heading towards another election, its sixth in three years, as the country’s political parties failed to agree on a “unity” government, threatening Bulgaria’s attempt to adopt the euro as its currency in early 2025. Far-right and pro-Russian parties are gaining ground.

西蒙·哈里斯被选为爱尔兰 Fine Gael党的新领袖，并有望在李奥·瓦拉德卡辞职后成为该国总理。37岁的哈里斯将成为担任该职位的最年轻人。

Simon Harris was chosen as the new leader of Fine Gael in Ireland and is set to become the country’s prime minister following the resignation of Leo Varadkar. Aged 37, Mr Harris will be the youngest person to hold the position.

联合国安理会通过决议要求以色列和哈马斯在接下来的斋月期间暂时停火，此举得到了美国的弃权支持，此前美国曾动用否决权阻止了三项呼吁停止加沙冲突的决议。由于对美国的弃权感到愤怒，以色列取消了代表团前往华盛顿的计划，并表示不会停止行动，因为哈马斯仍然控制着以色列人质。

The UN Security Council passed a resolution demanding a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas for the remainder of Ramadan, aided by the abstention of America, which had used its veto to block three earlier resolutions calling for a halt to the fighting in Gaza. Angered by America’s abstention, Israel cancelled a planned visit by a delegation to Washington and said it would not halt operations while Hamas still holds Israeli hostages.

塞内加尔的选民大规模投票选出了反对派候选人巴西鲁·迪奥迈耶·法耶为总统。现任总统麦基·萨尔曾试图推迟选举，导致一场持续的宪法危机。

Voters in Senegal turned out in large numbers to elect Bassirou Diomaye Faye, the opposition candidate, as president. Macky Sall, the outgoing president, had tried to postpone the election, causing a protracted constitutional crisis.

南非的一家法院裁定，由南非前总统雅各布·祖玛支持的一个政党可以参加定于五月底举行的大选。据最近的民意调查显示，乌姆孔托韦西兹韦党可能获得超过10％的选票，这可能导致执政的非洲人国民大会获得约40％的选票，迫使其寻求组建联合政府。

A court in South Africa ruled that a party backed by Jacob Zuma, a former president, can be on the ballot in the general election scheduled for the end of May. The uMkhonto we Sizwe party may get more than 10% of the vote, according to recent polls, which could push the ruling African National Congress to around 40%, forcing it to seek a coalition if it wishes to form a government.

美国、英国和新西兰指责中国发动了一个旨在监控各种目标的网络间谍活动，包括英国选举管理委员会、新西兰议会以及中国共产党的批评者。美国和英国对一家被指控是中国黑客组织一部门的公司实施了制裁。他们还对该组织成员中的两人实施制裁，美国对他们和其他五人提起了刑事指控。

America, Britain and New Zealand blamed China for a cyber-espionage campaign aimed at a variety of targets, including Britain’s Electoral Commission, New Zealand’s Parliament and critics of the Chinese Communist Party. America and Britain placed sanctions on an alleged front company for one group of Chinese hackers. They also placed sanctions on two alleged members of the group, while America brought criminal charges against them and five other men.

英国高等法院给予朱利安·阿桑奇更多时间来反对被引渡到美国面对间谍指控，裁定美国政府必须就在那里的审判公正性等问题提供更多保证。阿桑奇在他的维基解密网站上泄露了大量机密信息，美国称这些信息危及了人们的生命。

The High Court in Britain gave Julian Assange more time to fight against his extradition to America to face espionage charges, ruling that the American government had to provide more assurances about the fairness of a trial there, among other things. Mr Assange leaked a trove of classified information on his WikiLeaks site that the Americans say put lives in danger.

委内瑞拉主要反对派联盟的候选人因未能在七月的总统选举中注册而错失截至日期。在高级反对派人员被捕后，80岁的哲学家科琳娜·约里斯在最后一刻被征召参选。去年，玛利亚·科琳娜·马查多在反对派初选中以压倒性优势获胜，但被最高法院禁止参加竞选。

The candidate of Venezuela’s main opposition coalition was blocked from registering for July’s presidential election and missed the deadline. Corina Yoris, an 80-year-old philosopher, had been drafted in at the last minute following the arrest of senior opposition figures. María Corina Machado won the opposition primary last year by a landslide, but was prohibited from running by the Supreme Court.

美国国务院表示正在关注印度的法律进展，此前阿尔温德·凯杰瑞瓦尔，德里首席部长兼一名资深反对派政治人物被捕。凯杰瑞瓦尔的被捕发生在大选即将开始前几周。他因与德里的酒精政策有关的腐败案件接受询问，他表示这是“捏造”的。

America’s State Department said it was tracking legal developments in India after the arrest of Arvind Kejriwal, the chief minister of Delhi and a senior opposition politician. Mr Kejriwal’s arrest comes just weeks before the start of a general election. He was taken into custody for questioning over a corruption case relating to Delhi’s alcohol policy, which he says is “fabricated”.

美国和日本正准备加强两国的军事联盟，具体细节将在日本首相岸田文雄于4月10日访问白宫时宣布。该计划包括重组指挥链，从而促进国防规划。与此同时，日本内阁已敲定了与英国和意大利合作开发的战斗机向其他国家出售的协议，进一步侵蚀了日本的和平主义立场。

America and Japan are preparing to strengthen their military alliance, the details of which will be announced when Kishida Fumio, Japan’s prime minister, visits the White House on April 10th. The plan includes a restructuring of the command chain that will smooth defence planning. Meanwhile, the Japanese cabinet sealed a deal to sell fighter jets that are being developed with Britain and Italy to other countries, further eroding Japan’s pacifist stance.

泰国议会下议院以压倒性多数票通过了合法化同性婚姻以及在继承权等方面实现权利平等的法案。这项法案是政府的重点议程。如预期的那样，上议院和国王批准该法律后，法律将于年底生效，使泰国成为东南亚第一个合法化同性婚姻的国家。

The lower house of Thailand’s parliament voted overwhelmingly to legalise same-sex marriage and equalise rights on inheritance and so on. The bill is a priority for the government. If, as expected, the upper house and the king approve the law it will come into force by the end of the year, making Thailand the first country in South-East Asia to legalise gay nuptials.

乔·拜登签署了一项价值1.2万亿美元的支出法案，此举是为了避免政府关门而达成的共和党和民主党最后一刻的协议。这项立法本应在六个月前通过。在众议院不服从命令的共和党人再次提出罢免议长的可能性。

Joe Biden signed a $1.2trn package of spending measures into law, after Republicans and Democrats yet again reached a last-minute deal to avoid a government shutdown. The legislation should have been passed six months ago. Rebellious Republicans in the House of Representatives yet again raised the possibility of ousting the speaker.

The steel frame of the Francis Scott Key Bridge sits on top of the container ship Dali after the bridge collapsed, Baltimore, Maryland

巴尔的摩的法兰西斯·斯科特·基桥在一艘集装箱船与其支撑柱之一相撞后倒塌。六名在桥上工作的工人从桥上跌入水中丧生。作为美国东海岸贸易中心的巴尔的摩港口将受到数月的干扰。

The Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore collapsed after a container ship collided with one of its support columns. Six workers who were on the bridge died after falling into the water below. The port of Baltimore, a hub for trade on America’s east coast, will be disrupted for months.

上诉法院同意唐纳德·特朗普的请求，在一项民事诈骗审判中，他只需支付判给他的454百万美元的一部分罚款。法院告诉特朗普，他可以在上诉原判期间以175百万美元的保证金提出上诉。然而，特朗普的欣慰是短暂的。不久之后，一名法官认为他无权延迟他因对一名色情明星支付封口费用而被起诉的刑事审判。审判将于4月15日开始。

An appeals court agreed to Donald Trump’s request to pay just a portion of the $454m penalty awarded against him in a civil fraud trial. The court told Mr Trump he could post a bond of $175m while he appeals against the original judgment. Mr Trump’s relief was short-lived, however. Soon after, a judge denied his plea to delay his criminal trial over hush-money payments to a porn star. The trial starts on April 15th.

特朗普可能会通过在纳斯达克交易所出售他在社交媒体公司Truth Social的股票临时筹集一些现金。Truth Social的股价在首日交易中上涨了16％，使特朗普的股份价值约46亿美元。

Mr Trump may be able to scrape some cash from the sale of stock in his social-media company on the Nasdaq exchange. Truth Social’s share price rose by 16% on its first day of trading, making Mr Trump’s stake worth around $4.6bn.

回到目录

本周世界大事 (The world this week)

KAL的漫画 (KAL’s cartoon)

2024年3月30日本周世界大事。 (The world this week March 30th 2024)

深入了解本周漫画的主题：

Dig deeper into the subject of this week’s cartoon:

加沙正处于人为饥荒的边缘

Gaza is on the brink of a man-made famineAt a moment of military might, Israel looks deeply vulnerableHopes for a truce in Gaza give way to fears of a long stalemate

在军事力量的时刻，以色列看起来极为脆弱

加沙停火的希望被长期僵局的担忧所取代.

回到目录

本周世界大事 (The world this week)

商业 (Business)

被债务束缚 (Trussed up in debt)

波音管理层的高层人事调整引起了投资者对其客机安全检查的不安。今年一月，一架737 Max 9客机起飞后不久便掉落了一个舱盖板。此后发生了多起事故，包括一架777客机在起飞时失去了一根起落架轮胎。波音的安全问题已经成为TikTok上的一个梗。戴夫·卡尔霍恩将在今年年底辞去首席执行官职务，拉里·凯尔纳则离任董事长。商用飞机部门负责人立即被换掉。

The top ranks of Boeing’s management were overhauled amid investor unease about safety checks on its airliners. In January a panel fell from a 737 Max 9 passenger jet soon after take-off. Several incidents have been reported since then, including a 777 that lost a landing-gear tyre when it was taking off. Boeing safety has become a meme on TikTok. Dave Calhoun is to step down as chief executive by the end of the year and Larry Kellner departs as chairman. The head of the commercial-aircraft division has been replaced with immediate effect.

美国司法部对苹果提起了反垄断诉讼，指责这家科技巨头让顾客换手机变得更加困难，破坏应用创新，对开发者、企业和消费者施加了“非同寻常的成本”。这一指控实际上试图阻止苹果将用户锁定在其生态系统中。苹果表示该诉讼“威胁到了我们作为一家公司的本质”，并设立了“一种危险的先例，赋予政府在设计人们的技术方面发挥沉重作用的权力”。此案将花费数年时间在法庭上解决。

America’s Justice Department lodged an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, accusing the tech giant of making it harder for customers to switch phones, undermining innovation in apps, and imposing “extraordinary costs” on developers, businesses and consumers. The complaint in effect attempts to stop Apple locking users into its ecosystem. Apple said the suit “threatens who we are” as a company and sets “a dangerous precedent, empowering government to take a heavy hand in designing people’s technology”. The case will take years to wind its way through the courts.

与此同时，欧盟就字母表、苹果涉及其应用商店的竞争做法，以及Meta在广告中使用个人信息展开了调查。这是欧盟的新数字市场法案下对科技公司的首次官方审查。欧盟反垄断专员表示，如果这些问题能够通过“纯粹的讨论解决，它们早就该解决了”。

Meanwhile, the European Union opened investigations into Alphabet and Apple over competition practices at their app stores, and Meta over its use of personal information in advertising. It is the first official scrutiny of tech companies under the EU’s new Digital Markets Act. Had the issues been resolved with the companies by “mere discussion, they would have been solved by now”, said the EU’s antitrust commissioner.

阿里巴巴取消了旗下物流部门原计划的首次公开募股（IPO），而是提议收购该业务的少数股东。一年前，这家中国科技巨头宣布了将分拆成六个部分，其中每个部分都有可能进行股票上市。但这个计划并没有激发投资者的兴趣。去年底，阿里巴巴决定不拆分其云计算部门，并暂停了其超市业务的首次公开募股。

Alibaba abandoned a planned IPO for its logistics division, instead offering to buy out minority shareholders in the business. A year ago the Chinese tech giant announced its intention to split into six parts, with the potential for each to pursue a stockmarket listing. But the plan hasn’t excited investors. Late last year Alibaba decided not to spin off its cloud unit and suspended the IPO of its supermarket arm.

Reddit的股价保持着在纽约证券交易所成功上市后获得的大部分涨幅。这家社交媒体平台的股价在首日交易中飙升了48%。

Reddit’s share price held on to most of the gains reaped from its successful flotation on the New York Stock Exchange. The social-media platform’s stock soared by 48% on the first day of trading.

日元兑美元跌至34年低点，引发了日本官员的警告，称他们可能会介入货币市场。日本央行最近自2007年以来首次提高了利率，这通常会导致日元走强，但其货币政策仍然相对宽松。

The yen fell to a 34-year low against the dollar, triggering warnings from Japanese officials that they might intervene in the currency markets. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates recently for the first time since 2007, which would normally cause the yen to strengthen, but its monetary policy remains comparatively loose.

华盛顿的无党派国会预算办公室主任再次警告称，美国面临着其联邦债务的严重危机，截至2023年底，债务规模达到了26万亿美元，占国内生产总值的97%。菲利普·斯瓦格尔提出可能会出现市场对美国偿还债务能力失去信心的情况，类似于英国政府在2022年10月面临的情况。今年早些时候，斯瓦格尔先生表示美国已经进入了“债务和同时债务支付不断增长的缓慢螺旋”。

The director of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office in Washington repeated his warning that America faced a looming crisis on its federal debt, which stood at $26trn, or 97% of GDP, at the end of 2023. Phillip Swagel raised the possibility that markets could lose confidence in America’s ability to repay debt, similar to the situation that the government of Liz Truss faced in Britain in October 2022. Earlier this year Mr Swagel said that America had entered “a slow spiral” of rising debt and concurrent debt payments.

土耳其央行出乎市场意料地将其主要利率上调了5个百分点，至50%。一年前，利率为8.5%。随着通胀率接近年度70%，该央行表示将会保持紧缩的货币政策，直到“价格上涨出现显著且持续的下降”。

Turkey’s central bank surprised markets by lifting its main interest rate by five percentage points, to 50%. The rate was 8.5% a year ago. With inflation nearing 70% on an annual basis, the bank said it would retain a tight monetary policy until a “significant and sustained decline” in price rises was observed.

英国政府不再是苏格兰皇家银行集团（NatWest Group）的控股股东，其持股比例已降至刚好低于定义其为控股股东的30%的阈值。在2008年的金融危机期间，英国政府紧急援救了皇家苏格兰银行以使其免于倒闭。2020年，苏格兰皇家银行更名为苏格兰皇家银行集团（旗下运营RBS和NatWest两大品牌的零售银行业务）。危机发生16年后，政府仍然不希望苏格兰皇家银行集团在2026年之前完全私有化。

The British government is no longer the controlling shareholder in NatWest Group, having reduced its stake to just below the 30% threshold that would define it as such. During the financial crisis of 2008 the government bailed out Royal Bank of Scotland to save it from collapse. In 2020 RBS was renamed NatWest Group (providing retail banking under the RBS and NatWest brands). Sixteen years after the crisis, the government still doesn’t expect NatWest Group to be fully private until 2026.

Visa和万事达卡同意限制美国信用卡刷卡费，结束了与零售商之间长达20年的争执，可能会在未来五年为商家节省300亿美元。该协议还允许商家收取顾客在收银台使用信用卡的费用，同时引导他们选择更便宜的支付方式。

Visa and Mastercard agreed to cap credit-card swipe fees in America, ending a two-decade battle with retailers and potentially saving merchants $30bn over five years. The deal also allows retailers to charge customers for using the credit cards at tills while guiding them towards cheaper options.

法官驳回了X对数字仇恨打击中心提起的诉讼，指控后者曾发起一场活动试图将广告商从该平台驱赶。数字仇恨打击中心发表了一份声称显示推特上仇恨言论增加的报告，其所有者埃隆·马斯克将其描述为危言耸听。但在一份严厉的判决中，法官认为此案实质上只是“为了惩罚被告的言论”。

A judge threw out a lawsuit brought by X against the Centre for Countering Digital Hate for allegedly conducting a campaign to drive advertisers away from the platform. CCDH published a report purporting to show a rise in hate speech on Twitter, as it then was, which Elon Musk, its owner, described as scaremongering. But in a scathing decision, the judge found that the case had been all about “punishing the defendants for their speech”.

回到目录

领导者 | 挤压、激增、打击 (Leaders | Squeeze, surge, slap)

欧洲经济面临的三重冲击 (The triple shock facing Europe’s economy)

能源危机之后，欧洲面临中国进口激增和特朗普关税威胁。 (After the energy crisis, Europe faces surging Chinese imports and the threat of Trump tariffs)

欧洲并非以其活力而闻名，但今天无论用何种标准看，它看起来都很停滞。受到2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后的能源冲击所困扰，欧洲联盟的经济自本年代初以来只增长了4%，而美国则为8%；自2022年年底以来，欧洲和英国都没有增长。如果这还不够糟糕，欧洲面临来自中国的廉价进口激增，尽管这会让消费者受益，但可能会伤害制造商，并加剧社会和工业冲突。而在一年内，唐纳德·特朗普可能再次入主白宫，对欧洲的出口征收巨额关税。

EUROPE IS not known for its dynamism, but today it looks stagnant by any standard. Frazzled by the energy shock that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the European Union’s economy has grown by only 4% this decade, compared with 8% in America; since the end of 2022, neither it nor Britain has grown at all. If that were not bad enough, Europe faces a surge of cheap imports from China which, while benefiting consumers, could harm manufacturers and increase social and industrial strife. And within a year Donald Trump could be back in the White House, slapping huge tariffs on Europe’s exports.

欧洲此时遭遇不幸确实是时候不对。大陆需要强劲增长来帮助筹措更多的国防开支，特别是因为美国对乌克兰的支持已经枯竭，并且要实现其绿色能源目标。其选民们日益感到幻灭，可能会支持像德国可供选择的党派这样的极右翼政党。而长期以来对增长的拖累——人口快速老龄化、繁琐的监管和市场整合不足——并未消失。

The timing of Europe’s misfortune is bad. The continent needs strong growth in order to help fund more defence spending, especially since American support for Ukraine has dried up, and to meet its green-energy goals. Its voters are increasingly disillusioned and liable to back hard-right parties such as the Alternative for Germany. And long-standing drags on growth—a fast-ageing population, overbearing regulators and inadequate market integration—have not gone away.

欧洲各国政府正在忙乱应对。他们必须小心。尽管欧洲面临的冲击源于国外，但欧洲自身政策制定者的错误可能会严重加剧损害。

There is a frenzy of activity in European capitals as governments try to respond. They must take care. Although the shocks facing Europe originate abroad, errors from Europe’s own policymakers could greatly aggravate the damage.

好消息是能源冲击的最痛苦时刻已经过去：天然气价格已大幅下跌离峰值。不幸的是，其他阴影刚刚开始出现。面对通缩减速，中国政府应该刺激该国微不足道的家庭消费，这样可以取代房地产投资作为需求的来源。相反，习近平主席正在利用补贴来加速中国制造业的增长，这已经占全球商品生产的约三分之一。他依赖外国消费者来支撑增长。

The good news is that the energy shock is past the moment of maximum pain: gas prices have fallen far from their peak. Unfortunately the others are just beginning. Faced with a deflationary slowdown, China’s government should be stimulating the country’s paltry household consumption, which could replace property investment as a source of demand. Instead President Xi Jinping is using subsidies to supercharge Chinese manufacturing, which already accounts for about a third of global goods production. He is relying on foreign consumers to prop up growth.

中国的重点是绿色商品，最重要的是电动汽车，到2030年，其在全球市场份额可能翻倍，达到三分之一。这将终结欧洲如大众和斯泰利安蒂斯（后者的最大股东埃克索，部分拥有《经济学人》的母公司）这样的国家巨头的主导地位。从风力发电机到铁路设备，欧洲的制造商正忧心忡忡地看向东方。

China’s focus is on green goods, most significantly electric vehicles, for which its global market share could double, to a third, by 2030. That would end the dominance of Europe’s national champions like Volkswagen and Stellantis (whose largest shareholder, Exor, part-owns The Economist’s parent company). From wind turbines to railway equipment, Europe’s manufacturers are nervously looking eastward.

11月之后，制造商们也可能会转向西方。上次特朗普在任时对钢铁和铝进口征收关税，最终包括来自欧洲的关税，导致欧盟对摩托车和威士忌进行报复，直到2021年拜登总统下达一项脆弱的休战协议。今天，特朗普威胁对所有进口征收10%的统一关税；他的顾问们谈及更进一步的措施。

After November manufacturers might look westward, too. Last time he was in office Mr Trump imposed tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, eventually including those from Europe, leading the EU to retaliate against motorbikes and whiskey until an uneasy truce was struck under President Joe Biden in 2021. Today Mr Trump threatens a 10% blanket tariff on all imports; his advisers talk of going further.

贸易战的另一轮威胁着欧洲的出口商，这些出口商在2023年在美国的销售额达到了5000亿欧元（5400亿美元）。特朗普先生痴迷于双边贸易平衡，意味着27个欧盟成员国中有20个拥有商品贸易顺差，是自然的打击目标。他的团队还对欧洲的数字税、碳边境税和增值税感到不满。

Another round of the trade war threatens Europe’s exporters, which had €500bn ($540bn) of sales in America in 2023. Mr Trump is obsessed with bilateral trade balances, meaning that the 20 (of 27) EU member states with a goods-trade surplus are natural targets. His team is also aggrieved by Europe’s digital levies, its carbon border tax and its value-added taxes.

欧洲应该怎么做呢？未来的道路上充满陷阱。一个错误将是在脆弱时刻保持经济政策过于紧缩——这是欧洲央行以前犯过的错误。近年来，该行通过提高利率正确地打击通货膨胀。但与挥霍的美国相比，欧洲政府正在平衡他们的预算，这应该会使经济降温，而廉价的中国商品将直接降低通货膨胀。这给了欧洲央行的余地来降低利率以支持增长。如果央行能保持经济不陷入低迷状态，那么处理外部冲击将更容易，这种低迷状态将阻碍被裁员的工人找到新工作。

What should Europe do? The path ahead is littered with traps. One error would be to keep economic policy too tight at a moment of vulnerability—a mistake the European Central Bank has made before. In recent years the bank has rightly fought inflation with interest-rate increases. But in contrast to free-spending America, Europe’s governments are bringing their budgets into better balance, which should cool the economy, while cheap Chinese goods will bring down inflation directly. That gives Europe’s central banks room to cut interest rates to support growth. It will be easier to cope with disruption from outside if central banks keep the economy out of a slump that would stop displaced workers finding new jobs.

另一个陷阱是效仿美国和中国的保护主义，向受欢迎的产业投放巨额补贴。补贴战是零和博弈，浪费了稀缺资源——在欧洲内部，各国已经开始了一场大陆内部的竞争。中国最近的经济困境展示了过度政府规划的缺陷，而美国的产业政策并没有让拜登总统希望的那样受到选民的青睐，关税造成的失业比创造的就业还多。

Another trap would be to copy America’s and China’s protectionism by unleashing vast subsidies on favoured industries. Subsidy wars are zero-sum and squander scarce resources—within Europe, countries have already started an intra-continental race to the bottom. China’s recent economic woes demonstrate the flaws, not the virtues, of excessive government planning; America’s industrial policy has not wowed voters in the way President Biden had hoped, and tariffs have cost more jobs than they have produced.

相比之下，即使是在其贸易伙伴实行保护主义的情况下，贸易也会让经济变得更加繁荣。美国制造业的繁荣是欧洲生产商为其提供零部件的机会；来自中国的廉价进口将使绿色能源转型更容易，并为在能源危机中受苦的消费者提供帮助。对保护主义采取选择性和成比例的报复可能是有道理的，以试图阻止美国和中国进一步扰乱全球贸易流动。但这将对欧洲经济和其预期目标造成损失。

By contrast, trade makes economies richer even when their trading partners are protectionist. A manufacturing boom in America is a chance for European producers to supply parts; cheap imports from China will make the green-energy transition easier and provide relief to consumers who suffered during the energy crisis. Selective and proportional retaliation against protectionism may be justified in an attempt to dissuade America and China from further disrupting global trade flows. But it would come at a cost to Europe’s economy, as well as hurting its intended targets.

相反，欧洲应该制定适合当下的自己的经济政策。当美国向产业大规模注资时，欧洲应该投资于基础设施、教育和研发。与效仿中国的干预主义不同，欧洲应该注意中国企业从庞大国内市场中获得的好处。整合欧洲的服务市场，贸易仍然困难，在那里，有助于公司发展、奖励创新并替代一些失去的制造业岗位。欧盟应改革其繁文缛节和分散的监管，这也阻碍了服务业的发展。统一资本市场，包括伦敦在内，会产生同样的效果。欧洲外交官应该签署凡是还有开放空间的贸易协议，而不是像最近几次谈判那样让农民拖后腿。连接电力网会增加经济对能源冲击的韧性，并促进绿色过渡。

Instead Europe should forge its own economic policy fit for the moment. As America showers industry with public money, Europe should spend on infrastructure, education, and research and development. Instead of emulating China’s interventionism, Europe should note the benefit Chinese firms derive from a vast domestic market. Integrating Europe’s market for services, where trade remains difficult, would help firms grow, reward innovation and replace some lost manufacturing jobs. The eu should reform its burdensome and fragmented regulation, which also holds back service industries. Unifying capital markets—including those in London—would have the same effect. European diplomats should sign trade deals wherever they are still on offer, rather than letting farmers hold them up, as in several recent negotiations. Linking electricity grids would make the economy more resilient to energy shocks and smooth the green transition.

在保护主义时代，如此开放的议程可能看起来很幼稚。但是深广的开放市场有潜力提振欧洲的增长，因为世界在改变。在冲击降临时，决策者必须坚持现实。 ■

Such an open agenda in a protectionist age may seem naive. But it is deep, open markets that have the potential to boost Europe’s growth as the world changes around it. As the shocks strike, policymakers must stay grounded in that reality. ■

回到目录

领袖 | 乌克兰战争 (Leaders | War in Ukraine)

俄罗斯正在准备沿着一个漫长的前线发起一场新的大规模攻势 (Russia is gearing up for a big new push along a long front line)

乌克兰必须做好准备。 (Ukraine must prepare)

乌克兰春天的到来给人们带来了两种慰藉。更暖和的天气意味着俄罗斯对电气和天然气基础设施的疯狂导弹和无人机袭击不再那么难以忍受。随着新的温暖到来，泥泞的季节将持续约一个月，这时军事行动变得更加困难。这将阻碍横穿乌克兰东部和南部的前线上俄罗斯攻击的浪潮。但这种情况不会持续太久。随着春天转为夏天，人们担心俄罗斯会发动一场新的大规模进攻，就像去年一样。而乌克兰此刻能够抵御这一次攻势的能力现在看起来远不如当时那样有把握。这就是为什么它迫切需要动员更多的部队并建立更加强大的前线防御设施。

THE ARRIVAL of spring in Ukraine brings two kinds of respite. Warmer weather means that Russia’s frenzied missile and drone attacks on electrical and gas infrastructure will not be quite so unbearable. And with new warmth comes mud, and a month or so in which military movement grows difficult. That should hinder the wave of Russian attacks along the front line that stretches across eastern and southern Ukraine. But it will not last. As spring turns to summer, the fear is that Russia will mount a big new offensive, as it did last year. And Ukraine’s ability to hold it off this time looks much less sure now than it did then. That is why it urgently needs to mobilise more troops and build more robust front-line defences.

可理解地，乌克兰人将自己的困境归咎于世界各国政客。忙于中东事务、即将举行的选举以及自身的经济困境，乌克兰的西方盟友分心了。正如我们报道的那样，国会中支持特朗普的共和党人阻止拜登政府提供给乌克兰的610亿美元军事援助方案正在在前线上和乌克兰的城市上方产生影响。乌克兰士兵被迫节约弹药，而俄罗斯在一些地方的火力优势达到了五比一。仅上周一晚就有150多架无人机和导弹袭击了乌克兰，但乌克兰的拦截器不够用了，特别是那些可以摧毁最致命侵犯者的拦截器。

Ukrainians understandably blame the world’s politicians for their plight. Busy with the Middle East, forthcoming elections and their own economic woes, Ukraine’s Western allies are distracted. As we report, the decision by Trump-supporting Republicans in Congress to block the Biden administration’s $61bn military package for Ukraine is having an effect at the front line and above Ukraine’s cities. Ukraine’s soldiers are being forced to ration their shells, while Russia outguns them in some places by five to one. More than 150 drones and missiles were launched against Ukraine on just one night last week, but Ukraine is running out of interceptors—especially the ones that can take out the deadliest intruders.

阅读更多我们最近对乌克兰战争的报道

Read more of our recent coverage of the Ukraine war

美国的僵局可能会让俄罗斯冲破乌克兰不足的防御线。然而，尽管法国总统马克龙口头上强硬表示俄罗斯必须被打败，但实际上却没有提供太多军事支持。而德国的总理奥拉夫·肖尔茨也不待见，拒绝提供强大的Taurus远程导弹。欧洲未能达到本月向乌克兰提供100万枚弹药的目标，尽管捷克一直在全球搜寻以弥补这一缺口。资金也是一个问题；欧洲也应该在这方面提供帮助。但波兰和法国等国正试图阻止乌克兰的重要农产品出口，以保护自己的农民。

America’s deadlock risks letting Russia break through Ukraine’s inadequate defensive lines. And the Europeans are not doing much better, despite fighting talk from France’s president, Emmanuel Macron—who insists that Russia must be defeated but sends little in the way of hardware to help that happen—or Germany’s lacklustre chancellor, Olaf Scholz, who is refusing to supply powerful Taurus long-range missiles. Europe has failed to meet its target of getting 1m shells to Ukraine by this month, though the Czechs have been scouring the world to make up the shortfall. Money is also a problem; Europe should be helping with that, too. But Poland and France, among others, are trying to block Ukraine’s vital agricultural exports so as to protect their own farmers.

然而，乌克兰不能简单地归咎于其盟友。它自己也犯过错误。其中之一是在人力资源上的失败。俄罗斯正在为下一波动员做准备，着眼于其下一波大动作。3月22日对莫斯科音乐厅的恐怖袭击实际上可能会让弗拉基米尔·普京更容易实行这一计划，他正借此声称俄罗斯需要在血腥的敌人面前变得更加强大。但在乌克兰，尽管法案已被议会提交，为政府提供更多动员所需的空间，但对于吸引新兵力的努力仍然陷入了民主程序的泥沼中；据报道，已有1000多项修正案被提交到议会的一项法案中。缺乏资金，又担心不受欢迎，总统沃洛迪米尔·泽连斯基并没有尽全力推动自己的意图。

Yet Ukraine cannot simply blame its allies. It is guilty of mistakes too. One has been its failure on manpower. Russia is gearing up for another wave of mobilisation, with an eye to its next big push. The terrorist attack on a Moscow concert hall on March 22nd may actually make this easier for Vladimir Putin, who is using it to claim that Russia needs to be strong in the face of bloodthirsty enemies. But in Ukraine attempts to raise fresh recruits are still stuck in the coils of the democratic process; more than 1,000 amendments have reportedly been tabled to a bill in Parliament that would give the government more scope to raise the army it needs. Short of cash and fearing unpopularity, President Volodymyr Zelensky has not tried hard enough to get his way.

乌克兰在加强自身防御阵地方面也来得很晚。从某种程度上说，这是可以理解的。政府仍然梦想着一场新的反攻，害怕当前的前线可能变得非常像一个边界，割掉该国五分之一的领土，并剥夺它的大部分海上通道。这条线可能成为未来和平谈判的基础，这正是泽连斯基先生想要避免的。但危险已经如此之大，以至于这是最不坏的选择。最近几周挖掘工开始行动起来，障碍物已经播种。但应该早就开始了。让我们祈祷不要太迟了。■

Ukraine has also been very late in reinforcing its own defensive positions. In a way, this is understandable. The government still dreams of a new counter-offensive, and dreads the idea that the current front line may harden into something very like a border, one that lops off a fifth of the country and deprives it of most of its sea access. The idea that this line might become the basis for a future peace negotiation is exactly what Mr Zelensky has wanted to avoid. But the dangers are now so great that it is the least bad option. In recent weeks the diggers have started moving, and the dragon’s teeth are being sown. It should have started much earlier. Pray that it is not too late. ■

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领导者 | 管理咨询 (Leaders | Management consulting)

对企业世界中那些自诩无所不知的人的一些建议 (Some advice to the corporate world’s know-it-alls)

随着增速放缓，像麦肯锡这样的咨询公司也需要一些自己的建议 (With growth slowing, consulting firms like McKinsey need some counsel of their own)

尊敬的首席战略架构师—作为世界一流咨询公司背后的企业哲学家，您深知近来生意有多困难。仅两年前，您还在追逐星辰大海。受到新冠疫情的冲击，客户们寻求您作为供应链专家和数字业务专家的帮助。对于环境、社会和治理（ESG）考虑的狂热推动了您的底线增长。遗憾的是，您进行了一轮大规模招聘。

Dear CHIEF STRATEGy ARCHITECT—As the corporate philosopher behind one of the world’s most illustrious consultancies, you well know how tough business has been lately. Only two years ago you were reaching for the stars. Clients jolted by the covid-19 pandemic sought you out as a supply-chain savant and a doyen of digital businesses. The craze over environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerations turbocharged your bottom line. Unfortunately, you went on a hiring binge.

现在，繁荣时光结束了。随着客户削减了耀眼的项目，增长放缓了。劳动力优化已经普遍进行，尽管至少您雇佣了额外的安保人员看着前员工离开办公场所！本月，一份匿名备忘录，据称是由麦肯锡的前合伙人撰写，指责公司“不受控制和未经管理的增长”以及“缺乏战略聚焦”。

Now the good times are over. Growth has slowed as clients have cut back on splashy projects. Workforce optimisation has been widespread—though at least you gave something back by hiring extra security staff to see the ex-partners off the premises! This month an anonymous memo, purportedly written by McKinsey ex-partners, scolded the Firm’s “unchecked and unmanaged growth” and “lack of strategic focus”.

这对于一个建立在告诉公司如何管理事务的企业来说是严厉的批评。您可能会说，顾问们需要一些明智的建议。这就是我的公司——全球咨询公司的首选顾问——介入的地方。我附上了一份367页幻灯片演示，详细说明了情况，但我的诊断很简单：您都太大了。在您所在行业的八家领先公司的综合收入现在是十年前的两倍。这在一定程度上反映了需求增长。但也是中年发福：你过于臃肿了，我的朋友。

Those are harsh words for a business built on telling companies how to manage their affairs. You might go so far as to say the consultants need some wise counsel. That is where my firm—the premier consultant to the world’s consultancies—comes in. I append a 367-slide presentation that goes into the detail, but my diagnosis is simple: you are all too big. The combined revenue of the eight leading firms in your industry is now double what it was a decade ago. Partly that reflects growing demand. But it is also middle-age spread: you are bloated, my friend.

您曾经是给建议的业务，但您已经失去了专注，战略对齐出现了问题。贝恩、BCG和麦肯锡，最优秀的策略顾问，越来越将指导合同拖延到数月甚至数年的工作中，帮助客户实施他们的聪明点子——这是让他们的建议更加难以理解的激励因素。“四大”会计巨头德勤、安永、毕马威和普华永道正将这一点推向更远，代表客户从供应链管理到网络安全运营活动。他们将此称为“托管服务”；对我来说，这似乎是外包的升级版，对你们并不是好事。

You used to be in the advice business, but you have lost your focus and your strategic alignment is out of kilter. Bain, BCG and McKinsey, the best-of-breed strategy advisers, increasingly string out a contract for guidance into months or years of work helping clients to implement their brainy ideas—an incentive to make their advice even harder to understand. The “big four” accounting giants, Deloitte, EY, KPMG and PwC, are taking this a step further by running activities from supply-chain management to cybersecurity on clients’ behalf. They call this “managed services”; to me it seems like outsourcing on steroids, and about as good for you.

到现在，您可能会抗议说您有充分的商业理由。我知道——我已经阅读了您的推销词。海量经验，以及在技术等领域的大规模经济效益，使您在许多方面比客户更有生产力。几十年来，公司一直在撤出像工资管理这样的后勤运营。

By now you’ll be protesting that you had a sound business case. I know—I have read your pitches. Oceans of experience, alongside massive economies of scale in areas like technology, make you more productive than your clients at many things. Companies have been backing out of back-office ops like payroll management for decades.

然而，在客户和顾问之间责任的模糊界限带来了一些尴尬的问题。顶级高薪执行团队已经无法制定出自己的战略时，情况已经够糟糕。现在他们已经委派管理业务了。还剩下什么要做呢？

Yet the blurring of responsibilities between client and consultant raises awkward questions. It was bad enough when a top-dollar executive team could not work out their own strategy. Now they have delegated running the business, too. What is left to do?

咨询的定义变得更加模糊也为你们带来了两个风险。第一是客户开始质疑你们为他们计费的所有那些二十来岁年轻人的价值（请放心，我们的团队全是经验丰富的五十多岁人）。第二是，在这个动荡时期，您忽视了您提供建议的核心业务。

A fuzzier definition of consulting also carries two risks for you. The first is that clients begin to question the value of all those pimply 20-somethings you are billing them for (be assured, our team is staffed exclusively with jaded 50-somethings). The second is that, at a time of disruption, you take your eyes off your core business of providing advice.

目前，人工智能看起来像是一个救星，客户再次寻求您的帮助。但随着时间的推移，它可能会颠覆您的行业。这就是为什么我们为像您公司这样的公司制定了一个新的转型计划。您知道这是如何运作的：在您签署合同之前，我不会告诉您它包括什么内容。但如果您承诺与我们合作几年，我确信您可以克服这些挑战。

For now, artificial intelligence looks like a godsend, as clients turn to you again for help. In time, it could up-end your industry. That is why we have a new transformation programme for firms like yours. You know how this works: I’m not going to tell you what it involves until you sign the contract. But if you commit to be with us for a few years, I am confident you can overcome these challenges.

此致，BILL FOLD。PDQ咨询公司首席增长黑客。■

Yours, BILL FOLD. Chief Growth Hacker, PDQ Consult. ■

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领导者 | 不仅仅是关于企鹅 (Leaders | It’s not just about the penguins)

来自南极洲的逼近威胁 (The looming threat from Antarctica)

一场大规模融冰将给世界其他地方带来意想不到的后果。 (A big thaw will have unexpected consequences for the rest of the world)

北极和南极可谓南辕北辙。前者是被大陆环绕的海洋，后者则是被海洋环绕的大陆。在前者，有土著人和移民社区；而在后者，只有暂住者，他们只在那里逗留一个或两个季节。自冷战以来，拥有核武器的大国一直在北极对峙；同样的冲突也促成了一项迄今为止在外交史上更为乌托邦的和平科学合作治理制度，在南极建立的这个协定在构思上胜过了外交史中的任何其他协议。北极拥有极地熊的壮丽景象，南极则有企鹅的悲情表现。这两极面临由于全球变暖而带来的深刻动荡。但与正在威胁南极的变化相比，北极的变化被大大低估了。

The Arctic and Antarctic are, fittingly, polar opposites. The first is an ocean surrounded by continents, the second a continent surrounded by an ocean. In the one, communities of indigenous people and settlers; in the other, only transients, there for a season or two. Nuclear-armed powers have faced off across the Arctic since the cold war; the same conflict saw a governance regime of peaceful scientific collaboration created for Antarctica that is more utopian in its conception than any other agreement in the annals of diplomacy. The north has the majesty of polar bears, the south the pathos of penguins. The two are united in facing profound upheaval because of global warming. But compared with the changes affecting the Arctic, those threatening the Antarctic are greatly underappreciated.

部分原因是由于人们对南极的忽视；那里最大的基地，美国的麦克默多基地，离最近的城市（新西兰的基督城）几乎有4000公里。大部分访问者主要是科学家、冒险家和支持人员。另一部分原因是，南极似乎处于静止状态。南极的变化不像阿拉斯加那样，那里融化的永久冻土使道路凸起，建筑物倒塌；或者像西伯利亚那样，那里燃烧苔原引发的烟雾弥漫天空，烧灼肺部。事实上，很长一段时间科学家们倾向于认为南极相对稳定，至少在短中期内是如此。是的，南极的冰层蕴含了足以使海平面上升60米的水—但任何倒塌都需要几个世纪的时间。

In part that lack of attention is because of Antarctica’s remoteness; the biggest base there, America’s McMurdo, is almost 4,000km from the nearest city (Christchurch, in New Zealand). Visits are for the most part made only by scientists, adventurers and support staff. In part, too, there is seeming stasis. Change in Antarctica is not like that in Alaska, where melting permafrost buckles roads and topples buildings; or in Siberia, where the smoke from burning tundra paints the skies and sears the lungs. Indeed, for a long time scientists tended to see Antarctica as relatively stable, at least over the short to medium term. Yes, its ice sheets contain enough water to raise the seas by 60 metres—but any collapse would take centuries.

现在看来，这种态度已经显得自满了。正如我们在本周的《经济学人》科技版块中描述的，地球上最大的冰箱正在显示出令人担忧的大规模融化迹象，这将对全球其他地区产生影响。像去年南半球冬天消失了一个与格陵兰岛面积相当的海冰区域这样的极端事件，是潜在不稳定性加剧的一个迹象。冰川学家谈及“制度性转变”。覆盖南极98%土地的巨大冰层的部分正在向海洋滑动。

That turns out to have been complacent. Earth’s largest refrigerator is, as we describe in this week’s Science and technology section, showing alarming signs of a big thaw, one which will have consequences for the rest of the planet. Extreme events like the disappearance of an area of sea ice the size of Greenland during last year’s austral winter are a symptom of a quickening underlying instability. Glaciologists are talking of a “regime shift”. Parts of one of the enormous ice sheets that cover 98% of the continent are sliding towards the seas.

20年前，来自南极大陆岩床的水向南部海洋流入，仅对全球海平面上升贡献了4%。如今，这一比例增至12%，并将在未来几十年内持续上升。这种影响有一个被低估的必然结果。随着南极融化，其不断缩小的冰的引力作用减弱。这导致其他地方的海平面上升速度更快。来自南极的海平面上升将影响澳大利亚和大洋洲，但也将不成比例地影响北美。

Water shifting from Antarctica’s continental bedrock into the Southern Ocean contributed just 4% to global sea-level rise 20 years ago. Today its share is 12%, and it will rise relentlessly in the decades ahead. This effect has an underappreciated corollary. As Antarctica melts, the gravitational attraction its shrinking ice exerts on the neighbouring seas weakens. That causes sea levels elsewhere to rise even faster. Sea-level rise originating from Antarctica will affect Australia and Oceania, but it will also disproportionately affect North America.

融化的冰层不仅会提高海平面。它们还会带来大气环流的变化，影响到赤道及以外地区的天气，改变萨赫勒地区和亚马逊地区的气候。而南部海洋是全球最大的碳汇之一，负责每年吸收全球气候变化的二氧化碳总量的40%。如果南极变暖，其吸收能力会减弱—当数万亿吨淡水从南极大陆流出并改变洋流时，这种效应可能会加剧。

Melting ice sheets do more than raise sea levels. They also bring shifts in atmospheric circulation that stretch to the equator and beyond, changing weather in the Sahel and Amazonia. And the Southern Ocean is one of the world’s largest carbon sinks, responsible for absorbing 40% of all the climate-changing carbon dioxide that the oceans as a whole suck up every year. If it warms, it will absorb less—an effect that may be aggravated when trillions of tonnes of fresh water come off the great frozen South and alter ocean currents.

尽管如此，一些国家正在削减南极研究的预算。这是违背理性的。冰层的测量和建模远远落后于大气和洋流的研究；如果要适当评估并为恶化情况做好规划，这方面需要迅速得到解决。

Despite all this, some countries are cutting their budgets for Antarctic research. This flies in the face of reason. The measurement and modelling of ice sheets lags well behind the study of the atmosphere and of ocean currents; if the implications of the worsening situation are to be properly appreciated and planned for, this needs fixing fast.

对于最紧迫需要做什么，以及如何最好地合作来完成这些任务的辩论，应该激励签署南极条约的56个国家。他们可能无法保护南极环境，尽管南极条约的环境议定书要求他们承担这一责任。但他们至少可以加大力度，了解对他们负有责任的这片空旷大陆施加的变化意味着全球的其他地区。 ■

Debates over what needs doing most urgently, and how best to co-operate to get it done, should be galvanising the 56 countries that are signatories to the Antarctic treaty. They may not be able to protect the Antarctic environment, a duty to which the treaty’s environmental protocol commits them. They can at least increase their efforts to learn what the changes being forced on the empty continent in their charge mean for the rest of the world.■

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领导者 | 健康技术 (Leaders | Health technology)

AI医生终将会见您 (The AI doctor will see you…eventually)

人工智能在医疗保健领域有着巨大的潜力。但它也面临着巨大的障碍。 (Artificial intelligence holds huge promise in health care. But it also faces massive barriers)

更好的诊断。个性化支持患者。更快的药物发现。更高的效率。人工智能（AI）正在各个领域引发兴奋和夸大，但在医疗领域，它有潜力带来变革。在欧洲，分析师预测，应用AI可能每年挽救数十万条生命；在美国，他们说，它也可以节省资金，从目前年度总医疗支出4.5万亿美元（占国内生产总值的17%）中削减2000亿至3600亿美元。从智能听诊器和机器人外科医生，到分析大型数据集或与带有人类面孔的医疗AI交流的能力，机会无限。

Better diagnoses. Personalised support for patients. Faster drug discovery. Greater efficiency. Artificial intelligence (AI) is generating excitement and hyperbole everywhere, but in the field of health care it has the potential to be transformational. In Europe analysts predict that deploying AI could save hundreds of thousands of lives each year; in America, they say, it could also save money, shaving $200bn-360bn from overall annual medical spending, now $4.5trn a year (or 17% of GDP). From smart stethoscopes and robot surgeons to the analysis of large data sets or the ability to chat to a medical AI with a human face, opportunities abound.

已经有证据表明，AI系统可以增强诊断准确性和疾病追踪，改善患者预后预测，并提出更好的治疗方案。它还可以通过承担诸如医疗转录和监测患者等任务以及简化行政工作，提高医院和手术室的效率。它可能已经在加速新药物到达临床试验的时间。新工具包括生成AI，可以加强这些能力。然而，正如本周我们的《科技季刊》显示的那样，尽管AI在医疗领域已经使用多年，但整合进展缓慢，结果往往平庸。

There is already evidence that AI systems can enhance diagnostic accuracy and disease tracking, improve the prediction of patients’ outcomes and suggest better treatments. It can also boost efficiency in hospitals and surgeries by taking on tasks such as medical transcription and monitoring patients, and by streamlining administration. It may already be speeding the time it takes for new drugs to reach clinical trials. New tools, including generative AI, could supercharge these abilities. Yet as our Technology Quarterly this week shows, although AI has been used in health care for many years, integration has been slow and the results have often been mediocre.

其中有好的原因，也有不好的原因。好的原因是，医疗领域在引入新工具时要求具有很高的证据门槛，以保护患者的安全。不好的原因涉及数据、监管和激励机制。克服这些困难可能为其他领域的AI提供启示。

There are good and bad reasons for this. The good reasons are that health care demands high evidentiary barriers when introducing new tools, to protect patients’ safety. The bad reasons involve data, regulation and incentives. Overcoming them could hold lessons for AI in other fields.

AI系统通过处理大量数据来学习，医疗保健提供者拥有大量这样的数据。但医疗数据高度碎片化；严格的规则控制其使用。政府意识到患者希望保护其医疗隐私。但患者也希望得到更好和更个性化的护理。每年大约有80万美国人患有医疗决策不良。

AI systems learn by processing huge volumes of data, something health-care providers have in abundance. But health data is highly fragmented; strict rules control its use. Governments recognise that patients want their medical privacy protected. But patients also want better and more personalised care. Each year roughly 800,000 Americans suffer from poor medical decision-making.

提高AI工具的准确性和减少偏见需要对其进行在反映患者多样性的大型数据集上进行训练。找到安全的方式让医疗数据更自由地流动将有助于。但这也可能使患者受益：他们应该有权以便携、数字化的格式访问自己的记录。消费者健康公司已经在利用可穿戴设备的数据，取得了不同程度的成功。患者便携的病历将使人们更充分地利用他们的数据，对自己的健康承担更多责任。

Improving accuracy and reducing bias in AI tools requires them to be trained on large data sets that reflect patients’ full diversity. Finding secure ways to allow health data to move more freely would help. But it could benefit patients, too: they should be given the right to access their own records in a portable, digital format. Consumer-health firms are already making use of data from wearables, with varying success. Portable patients’ records would let people make fuller use of their data and take more responsibility for their health.

另一个问题是管理和监管这些创新。在许多国家，AI在医疗领域的治理，如其他领域一样，难以跟上快速的创新步伐。监管机构可能会缓慢批准新的AI工具，或者可能缺乏能力和专业知识。政府需要装备监管机构评估新的AI工具。他们还需要填补监测不良事件监视和持续监测算法的监管空白，以确保其保持准确、安全、有效和透明。

Another problem is managing and regulating these innovations. In many countries the governance of AI in health, as in other areas, is struggling to keep up with the rapid pace of innovation. Regulatory authorities may be slow to approve new AI tools or may lack capacity and expertise. Governments need to equip regulators to assess new AI tools. They also need to fill regulatory gaps in the surveillance of adverse events, and in the continuous monitoring of algorithms to ensure they remain accurate, safe, effective and transparent.

这将很困难。一个解决方案是各国合作，互相学习，并制定最低全球标准。一个更简单的国际监管体系也将有助于创造一个小公司能够创新的市场。较不发达的国家，在医疗基础设施较不发达的情况下，引入新工具，如用于产科的AI动力便携式超声设备，可以获益良多。因为与AI工具相比，另一种选择通常是完全没有治疗，他们甚至可以跃迁超越富裕国家的扎根健康系统——尽管缺乏数据、联通性和计算能力将成为阻碍。

That will be hard. One solution would be for countries to work together, to learn from each other and create minimum global standards. A less complex international regulatory system would also help create a market in which small companies can innovate. Poorer countries, with less developed health infrastructure, have much to gain from introducing new tools, such as an AI-powered portable ultrasound device for obstetrics. Because the alternative to an AI tool is often no treatment at all, they may even be able to leapfrog the entrenched health systems of rich countries—though a lack of data, connectivity and computing power will get in the way.

最后一个问题涉及机构和激励机制。AI承诺通过协助或替代工人、改善生产力、减少错误、将支出变平或减少，同时提高护理，从而削减医疗成本。这是迫切需要的。到2030年，全球可能缺少1000万医护工作者，约占今天工作人群的15%。在2022年，行政工作在美国的医疗超支成本中占比约30%，这个数字与其他国家相比。

A final problem involves institutions and incentives. AI promises to cut medical costs by assisting or replacing workers, improving productivity, reducing errors and flattening or reducing spending, all while improving care. That is desperately needed. The world could lack 10m health-care workers by 2030, around 15% of today’s workforce. And administration accounted for about 30% of America’s excess health-care costs, compared with other countries, in 2022.

但是利用创新节省资金是棘手的。医疗体系设立的目的是利用它来改善护理，而不是降低成本。新技术可能导致医疗支出年度增长高达一半。增加新系统将增加成本和复杂性。但重新设计流程以充分利用AI可能会遭到患者和医生的抵制。虽然AI可能通过电话给他们分诊或提供常规结果，患者可能要求亲自就诊。

Yet saving money using innovation is tricky. Health systems are set up to use it to improve care, not cut costs. New technology may account for as much as half of the annual growth in health spending. Layering on new systems will increase costs and complexity. But redesigning processes to make efficient use of AI is likely to be resisted by patients and medics. Though AI may be able to triage them over the phone or provide routine results, patients may demand to be seen in person.

更糟糕的是，许多医疗体系，如美国的，被设立为奖励工作量。他们几乎没有理由采用可以减少就诊次数、检查或程序的技术。即使是公共运行的医疗体系，也可能缺乏采用旨在降低成本而非改善结果的技术的激励机制，也许是因为节约资金可能会导致明年的预算减少。除非政府能改变这些激励机制，让AI将更好的治疗与新效率相结合，否则创新将增加成本。因此，政府和卫生当局需要资助专门用于测试和部署新AI技术的计划。美国、英国和加拿大等国正在指明方向。

Worse, many health systems, such as America’s, are set up to reward the volume of work. They have little reason to adopt technologies that cut the number of visits, tests or procedures. And even publicly run health-care systems may lack incentives to adopt technologies that reduce costs rather than improve outcomes, perhaps because saving money may lead to a smaller budget next year. Unless governments can change these incentives, so that AI combines better treatment with new efficiencies, innovation will increase costs. Accordingly, governments and health authorities will need to fund schemes dedicated to testing and deploying new AI technologies. Countries including America, Britain and Canada are pointing the way.

促进医疗AI的很大责任落在政府和监管机构身上。然而，公司也有一定的作用要发挥。保险公司已经利用AI工具不公平地拒绝支付，公司已经过度销售或夸大医疗AI的能力；算法也产生了错误。公司有责任确保其产品安全、可靠和负责任，人类，无论有多大缺陷，仍然控制着局面。

Much of the burden for boosting AI in health care falls on governments and regulators. However, companies have a part to play, too. Insurers have already used AI tools to deny care unfairly; firms have mis-sold or overstated the abilities of health AI; algorithms have made mistakes. Firms have a duty to ensure that their products are safe, reliable and accountable, and that humans, however flawed, remain in control.

这些障碍是艰巨的，但在医疗保健中使用AI的潜在益处是如此巨大，以至于克服这些难题的必要性是显而易见的。如果AI在医学领域能够成功运行，它可能为其他领域的技术应用提供有效的方法。 ■

These obstacles are formidable but the potential benefits of using AI in health care are so vast that the case for overcoming them should be obvious. And if AI can be made to work in medicine, it could provide a prescription for the adoption of the technology in other fields. ■

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中国 | 不用刑杖？ (China | Spare the rod?)

一起恐怖谋杀引发了中国关于少年司法的讨论 (A gruesome murder sparks a debate about juvenile justice in China)

一个曾更加仁慈的制度正受到考验。 (A system that had become more merciful is being tested)

在一篇他被归因的最著名的评论中，孔子说他15岁时立志学习。在30、40、50和60岁时，他逐渐达到了不同的成熟和理解水平。但直到70岁，他才学会如何在不越界的情况下追随内心的渴望。自从这位伟大的圣人开启了演讲之后的2500年，中国社会仍在就对于青少年违法犯罪者之间恰当的宽大和问责之间的平衡而进行伦理问题的探讨。

IN ONE OF the best-known commentaries attributed to him, Confucius said that at the age of 15 he set his mind on studying. At the ages of 30, 40, 50 and 60 he reached successive new levels of maturity and understanding. But it was only at the age of 70 that he had learnt how to follow his heart’s desires without overstepping boundaries. Today, 2,500 years since the great sage held forth, Chinese society continues to grapple with ethical questions about the appropriate balance between leniency and accountability for juvenile transgressors of the law.

一起可怕的谋杀案激发了一轮新的关于如何对待年轻罪犯的辩论。这起案件涉及中国北方城市邯郸郊外的三名中学生。据称他们长时间欺负一个同学，然后在3月10日将其杀害。他们将受害者的尸体埋在了一个废弃的大棚里。一些中国媒体报道称，嫌疑人在谋杀前一天就开始挖坟，表明这是一起蓄意的犯罪。据说嫌疑凶手目前都被羁押。和受害者一样，他们都不满14岁。

A horrific murder has spurred a new round of debate about how to treat young criminals. The case involves three middle-school students in the rural outskirts of Handan, a city in northern China. They are alleged to have bullied a classmate over a long period of time. Then, on March 10th, they killed him. His body was buried in an abandoned greenhouse. Some Chinese media outlets are reporting that the suspects began digging the grave a day before the murder, indicating that the crime was premeditated. The alleged killers are all said to be in custody. Like the victim, they are all under the age of 14.

这一点很重要，因为中国在2021年修改了刑法，将谋杀嫌疑人可起诉的年龄从14岁降低到12岁。邯郸案似乎是新年龄标准适用的第一案。

That is significant because China amended its criminal code in 2021, lowering the age at which murder suspects can be prosecuted from 14 to 12. The Handan case appears to be the first in which the new age standards will apply.

中国司法系统整体上并不以宽大闻名——公正和独立也一样。警察、检察官和法官都受共产党控制。在刑事案件中很少会有无罪释放。但观察人士表示，在未成年人司法领域，中国一直朝着更加宽容的方向发展。14至18岁被定罪人数从2013年的55817人下降到2022年的27757人。约翰·卡姆，一位美国权利活动家表示，官员们越来越接受封存未成年人的刑事记录的想法，这样他们就不会在成年后困扰。他的基地位于旧金山的“对话基金会”已与中国官员合作，改善对年轻被羁押者的待遇。

The Chinese justice system does not, in general, have a reputation for leniency—or fairness and independence, for that matter. Police, prosecutors and judges are all controlled by the Communist Party. Acquittals in criminal cases are exceedingly rare. But in the field of juvenile justice, China has been moving in a more merciful direction, say observers. The number of convictions of those aged 14 to 18 fell from 55,817 in 2013 to 27,757 in 2022. Officials are also increasingly open to the idea of sealing the criminal records of juveniles so that they don’t haunt them in adulthood, says John Kamm, an American rights activist. His Dui Hua Foundation, based in San Francisco, has worked with Chinese officials to improve the treatment of young detainees.

然而，并不是所有人都对这些变化感到满意。“在中国，无论罪犯的年龄如何，你肯定会遇到‘作恶必被制裁’的态度，”卡姆先生说。对邯郸谋杀案的反应中已有类似观点被表达。一位专家告诉当地报纸《重庆日报》，这场血腥事件需要严厉回应以遏制“小恶魔”。著名法学家罗翔在网上发表了一份声明，称对案件的恰当处理“只能通过惩罚来实现”。

Not everyone is happy with these changes, though. “In China you certainly encounter a ‘do the crime, do the time’ sort of attitude, regardless of an offender’s age,” says Mr Kamm. Such opinions have been expressed in response to the murder in Handan. One expert told Chongqing Daily, a local newspaper, that the bloody episode demanded a harsh response in order to deter “little demons”. Luo Xiang, a well-known legal scholar, posted a statement online saying the appropriate handling of the case “could only be achieved through punishment”.

在今年早些时候的另一起可怕案件中，据报道，湖北省的一个未满12岁的男孩杀害了一名四岁的女孩。由于他的年龄，这名男孩无法被起诉，而是被转介接受精神治疗。但一些人在社交媒体上表达了愤怒。一位评论者表示，基于年龄的禁止刑事起诉仅令校园霸凌者感到得势，而这位加害者“不应被允许长大”。

In another grisly case from earlier this year a four-year-old girl was reportedly murdered by a boy under the age of 12 in the central province of Hubei. Because of his age, the boy could not be prosecuted and was instead referred for psychiatric treatment. But some expressed outrage on social media. One commenter said age-based prohibitions on criminal prosecutions only serve to embolden bullies and that the perpetrator “should not be allowed to grow up”.

邯郸案还有一个引发更多同情的方面。那就是“留守儿童”的困境，即那些父母离开村庄到城市打工的儿童。根据最近的人口普查，2020年中国有6700万左右这样的儿童（总人口14亿）。许多人生活在远离家乡的农村寄宿学校，这是政府试图提高农村教育水平的结果。与同龄人相比，这些男孩和女孩有更高的抑郁、药物滥用和不良行为率。

There is one facet of the Handan case that has elicited more sympathy. That is the plight of “left-behind children”, or those whose parents have left their villages to look for work in cities. According to the most recent census, in 2020, there are 67m such children in China (out of a total population of 1.4bn). Many live in rural boarding schools far from their homes, a result of the government’s attempt to improve educational standards in the countryside. These boys and girls have higher rates of depression, substance abuse and bad behaviour than their peers.

据报道，邯郸的受害者和凶手都是留守儿童。这引发了对学校和社区提供更好支持的呼吁。孔子曾强调良好家庭与善治国家之间的联系，他肯定会同意这一点。■

According to reports, the victim and the perpetrators in Handan were left-behind children. That has led to calls for better support in schools and communities. Confucius, who made much of the connection between well-managed families and well-governed states, would surely agree. ■

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中国 | 机器里的间谍 (China | Spooks in the machine)

如何看待中国庞大的网络间谍活动 (What to make of China’s massive cyber-espionage campaign)

美国等国家详细描述了中国间谍的所作所为 (America and others offer rich details of what Chinese spies are up to)

在批评中国时，西方政府有时候喜欢站在一起。 在3月25日和26日，美国、英国和新西兰协调一致，对中国的网络间谍活动进行了猛烈抨击。美国联邦检察官指控中国网络特工长年发动网络攻击，针对西方一系列目标，包括中国共产党的批评者。英国副首相奥利弗·道登表示，中国展示了“持续对我们共同民主进行敌对活动的模式”。新西兰将针对国家链接的中国黑客指责为发动了对该国议会的网络攻击。

When calling out China, Western governments sometimes like to stand together. On March 25th and 26th America, Britain and New Zealand did so in a co-ordinated blast against Chinese cyber-espionage. American federal prosecutors accused China’s cyber-spooks of waging a campaign for years against a wide range of targets in the West, including critics of the Chinese Communist Party. Britain’s deputy prime minister, Oliver Dowden, said China showed “ongoing patterns of hostile activity targeting our collective democracies”. New Zealand blamed state-linked hackers in China for a cyber-attack on the country’s parliament.

美国和英国对一组中国黑客的一家所谓前端公司，也就是APT31，采取了制裁措施。他们还对该组织中的两名成员实施了制裁，而美国则对他们和其他五名男子提出了刑事指控。这些行动不太可能对中国的努力产生太大影响。APT代表“高级持久性威胁”。这是指潜伏在目标网络中未被察觉的一种攻击的技术术语。这些字眼也碰巧传达了西方对中国网络进攻的悲观看法。

Both America and Britain placed sanctions on an alleged front company for one group of Chinese hackers, which they called APT31. They also imposed sanctions on two of the group’s alleged members, while America laid criminal charges against them and five other men. These actions are unlikely to have much impact on China’s efforts. The letters APT stand for “advanced persistent threat”. This is technical jargon for an attack that involves lurking undetected in a target’s network. The words also happen to convey the West’s gloomy view of China’s cyber-onslaught.

发现网络入侵，更别说确定责任人，可能需要花费很长时间。 这三个西方国家披露的事件大多发生在两三年前。道登告诉议会，“中国国家相关方”已经渗透到选举管理委员会的电子邮件和文件共享系统中。此次数据泄露首次于2023年8月公开宣布，当官员透露到可疑活动直到2022年10月才被发现——黑客入侵后超过一年的时间。肇事者将可以获取到英国选民的地址。道登并未具体指出参与那次攻击的组织。但他称APT31“几乎肯定”曾在2021年对国会议员的电子邮件进行“侦察活动”。受到针对的大多数人都是中国的著名批评者。

Spotting a cyber-intrusion, let alone identifying those responsible, can take time. The incidents revealed by the three Western countries mostly occurred two or three years ago. Mr Dowden told Parliament that “Chinese state-affiliated actors” had penetrated the Electoral Commission’s email and file-sharing systems in 2021. The breach was first publicly declared in August 2023, when officials revealed that suspicious activity had not been identified until October 2022—more than a year after the hackers had broken in. The perpetrators would have had access to the addresses of Britain’s voters. Mr Dowden did not specify the group involved in that attack. But he said APT31 was “almost certain” to have been behind “reconnaissance activity” aimed at MPs’ email accounts in 2021. Most of those targeted were prominent critics of China.

在纽约法院提交的针对APT31七名成员的起诉书详细描述了该团队的活动。 这份27页的文件说，该组织是在中国国家主要的文职间谍机构——国务院机密部门的湖北省分支下运作的。其前端公司武汉小睿智科技成立于2010年左右。自那时以来，他们据称已经瞄准成千上万的美国及其他地区的政治人物，以及学者、记者和亲民主活动人士。根据文件，他们还将目标对准了被认为对“国家重要性”的美国行业的人和公司，包括国防、信息技术和电信相关行业。

The indictment filed in a New York court against the alleged seven members of APT31 offered rich detail of this team’s activities. The 27-page document said the group operated under the Hubei provincial branch of China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS), the country’s main civilian spy agency. Its front company, Wuhan Xiaoruizhi Science & Technology, was set up around 2010. Since then it has allegedly targeted thousands of politicians in America and elsewhere, as well as academics, journalists and pro-democracy activists. According to the document, it has also taken aim at people and companies in American industries deemed of “national importance”, including those relating to defence, IT and telecommunications.

英国淡化了其发现的中国黑客活动的影响——没有选举受到影响，对议员的邮件的攻击被“议会的网络安全措施”阻止了。新西兰表示，另一家名为APT40的与国务院有关的组织，涉及了其议会在2021年的网络攻击，但这并没有造成敏感信息的泄露。然而，美国的起诉书指出，APT31的活动“导致了对数百万美国人工作和个人电子邮件账户、云存储账户和电话通话记录的证实和可能的妥协，其中至少有一些信息可能被释放，以支持对民主进程和机构的恶意影响”。

The British played down the impact of the Chinese hacking it had detected—no elections had been affected and the targeting of MPs’ emails had been “blocked by Parliament’s cyber-security measures”. New Zealand said another MSS-linked group, known as APT40, had been involved in the cyber-attack on its parliament in 2021, but this had not caused the leak of sensitive information. The American indictment, however, said APT31’s activities had “resulted in the confirmed and potential compromise of work and personal email accounts, cloud-storage accounts and telephone-call records belonging to millions of Americans, including at least some information that could be released in support of malign influence targeting democratic processes and institutions”.

网络安全公司Recorded Future的马克·凯利表示， 该公司了解到中国约有50个黑客组织，包括为国务院或人民解放军工作的私人公司。毫无疑问还有更多。凯利先生将中国的网络间谍活动描述为“数量级别”比俄罗斯或朝鲜规模更大。

Mark Kelly of Recorded Future, a cyber-security firm, says his company is aware of about 50 hacking groups in China, including private firms working for the MSS or People’s Liberation Army. There are undoubtedly many more. Mr Kelly describes China’s cyber-espionage efforts as “orders of magnitude” greater in scale than those mounted by Russia or North Korea.

正如起诉书所示，这些活动出人意料地分散。 英国前情报机构MI6的前副局长奈杰尔·英克斯特表示，其中一些团队专门从事对世界各地的监听工作。他表示，他们有很大的自由度去做他们想做的事情：“我甚至不确定是否存在任何一种正式的政治审批机制。”他们的许多工作被外包给私营企业。上个月，一家名为i-Soon的公司的大规模在线文件泄露显示其涉及代表各种政府机构进行大规模网络监听。

As the indictment shows, they are surprisingly devolved. Some of them specialise in spying on different parts of the world, says Nigel Inkster, a former deputy head of Britain’s spy agency, MI6. They have considerable leeway to do as they wish, he says: “I’m not even sure that there is any kind of formal political clearance mechanism.” Much of their work is subcontracted to private firms. Last month a huge online dump of documents from one such company, I-Soon, showed its involvement in large-scale cyber-snooping on behalf of a variety of government agencies.

西方对于盗窃企业数据等黑客行为的焦虑日益显现。 今年1月，美国联邦调查局局长克里斯托弗·雷表示，中国的国家赞助黑客数量比他的机构的网络人员要多“至少50倍”。他补充说，中国的黑客正在为可能对美国发动攻击做准备，“在美国基础设施中定位，准备制造混乱，对美国公民和社区造成真实世界的伤害。”

The West’s anxieties, not least about the hackers’ theft of corporate data, are becoming increasingly manifest. In January the head of the FBI, Christopher Wray, said that China’s state-sponsored hackers outnumbered his agency’s cyber-personnel by “at least 50 to one”. He added that China’s hackers are laying the groundwork for a possible Chinese strike, “positioning on American infrastructure in preparation to wreak havoc and cause real-world harm to American citizens and communities.”

中国外交官已经驳回了此类指责。 伦敦的中国大使馆发言人称英国的指控是“捏造和恶意中伤”。如果西方希望通过点名、羞辱和制裁来阻止中国间谍，那很可能会失望。正如英克斯特先生所说：“我认为北京对于被抓到手深蘸盗窃政治后果并不特别在意。” ■

Chinese diplomats have dismissed such accusations. A Chinese embassy spokesperson in London called Britain’s allegations “fabricated and malicious slanders”. If the West hopes that naming, shaming and sanctions will dissuade the Chinese spooks, it is likely to be disappointed. As Mr Inkster puts it: “I don’t think Beijing is particularly concerned about the political ramifications of getting caught with their fingers in the till any more.” ■

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中国 | 听从习近平之命的人 (China | The men with Xi’s ear)

中国经济团队中谁在位，谁失势 (Who is up and who is down on China’s economic team)

习近平主导一切。其他人需要重新排序。 (Xi Jinping is in charge. The rest need sorting)

经济学人 2027年政治人物“脸谱”：李克强和高峰

On March 27th, when Xi Jinping met American business executives in Beijing, it was a rare opportunity for these corporate bigwigs to interact with China’s leader on his home turf. The meeting followed the China Development Forum, an annual economic conference held amid the lakes and willows of a tranquil state guesthouse in the capital. The economic backdrop to the meeting was less serene, thanks to a faltering economy, depressed stockmarket and sporadic regulatory crackdowns. Foreign direct investment has slumped (see chart).

3月27日，習近平在北京会见美国商界高管，对这些公司大佬来说，在中国领导人的故土上与其互动是一个罕见的机会。这次会晤是在一个宁静的国宾馆——琉璃晓庐的湖光柳影之中召开的年度经济论坛——中国发展高层论坛之后举行的。由于经济疲软、股市低迷和零星的监管风暴，这次会议的经济背景显得不那么宁静。外国直接投资已经大幅下滑。

In the past, such meetings were entrusted not to China’s president, but to its prime minister, who has traditionally held sway over economic policy. Li Qiang (pictured, right) was still new in the job when he met businessmen, including Tim Cook, the chief executive of Apple, on the sidelines of last year’s forum. Hoping to restore optimism after the pandemic, Mr Li urged his visitors to look up at the metaphorical rainbow after the rain, rather than down at the mud under their feet.

在过去，此类会议并非由中国国家主席负责，而是由传统上掌握经济政策的总理负责。李强（右图）在去年论坛期间与商界人士（包括苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克）会面时还是新手。为了在疫情之后重振乐观情绪，李先生敦促访客们抬头看着比喻性的彩虹，而不是低头看着自己脚下的泥潭。

This year, however, Mr Li’s thunder has been stolen by his boss. The prime minister also missed a high-profile chance to communicate to the outside world earlier this month, when the annual meeting of China’s parliament dispensed with his closing press conference.

然而，今年李总理的风头被他的老板抢去了。在本月初中国全国人大会议没有召开总理的闭幕记者会时，总理也错过了一个向外界传达信息的高调机会。

This reticence is becoming a pattern. Compared with his predecessor, Mr Li has held fewer meetings with foreign officials and business leaders in his first year: only two-thirds as many, according to the South China Morning Post in Hong Kong. He has travelled to only half as many meetings abroad. And when he has taken to the skies, he has flown on chartered flights rather than a government plane.

这种保持沉默变成了一种模式。据香港《南华早报》报道，与前任相比，李在首年的任期内与外国官员和商界领袖举行的会议数量减少了三分之一：只有两个三分之一。他参加国外会议的次数也少了一半。而且，即便他出访，也是乘坐包机，而不是政府专机。

There is a swirling debate inside China about what explains these changes. One view is that Mr Li is adroitly signalling his deference to Mr Xi, even as he retains substantial influence on policymaking. Another view is that he has been in effect demoted. Either way, the prime minister’s economic purview seems to have narrowed, focusing on new domestic growth engines not international exchanges. Mr Li has spent more time than his predecessor on inspection tours around the country, the Post points out. Economics has also lost ground to national security in the leadership’s priorities. Regardless of whether his influence has slipped, Mr Li holds sway over a diminished portfolio.

中国内部正在围绕这些变化展开激烈辩论。一种观点认为李总理巧妙地显示出对習的尊重，尽管他依然在政策制定方面有着相当大的影响力。另一种观点认为他实际上已经被降职。无论哪种观点成立，总理的经济职责似乎已经变窄，聚焦于新的国内增长引擎而非国际交流。《南华早报》指出，相比于前任，李在全国各地的视察工作上花费的时间更多。经济政策也在领导层的优先事项中失去了地位。无论他的影响力是否有所下降，李对一个被削弱的职责范围具有影响力。

The power of China’s leaders derives not from their position in the government, but from their standing in the Communist Party, including its 24-person Politburo. By the time the party picks its next Politburo in 2027, Mr Li will be above the customary retirement age of 68. He might then step down as prime minister after one term.

中国领导人的权力不仅来源于其在政府中的职位，还来源于其在共产党内部的地位，包括其24人的政治局常委。到2027年党选举产生新的政治局常委时，李将年满68岁的正常退休年龄。届时，他可能会在担任一届总理之后卸任。

If so, a plausible successor would be Ding Xuexiang. The youngest member of the Politburo’s seven-man Standing Committee, Mr Ding was a close aide to Mr Xi in Shanghai in 2007. He then followed him to Beijing and accompanied him on many of his foreign trips during his first term as president, including a visit to Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida.

如果是这样，一个合理的接班人选可能是丁学祥。作为政治局常委七人团队中最年轻的成员，丁学祥在2007年曾是習在上海的亲信。然后他跟随習到北京，并在習担任主席的第一任期期间陪同他进行了许多外交之旅，包括访问唐纳德·特朗普在佛罗里达州的马阿拉歌度假村。

Mr Ding is the highest-ranked of four deputy prime ministers on the State Council, China’s cabinet. But he does not hold a position on the most powerful party commission handling the economy: the sweeping Central Comprehensively Deepening Reforms Commission (known for its less-than-comprehensive reforms of everything from pensions to football).

丁目前是中国国务院副总理中地位最高的一人，但他没有在处理经济事务上最有权势的党委员会上担任职务：广泛深化改革委员会（号称对从养老金到足球等各方面的改革进行全面而不太有力的改革）。

Similar party commissions have proliferated under Mr Xi. Compared with government bodies, these groups have fewer constraints on their action and no awkward age limits on their members. A prominent example is the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission (CFEAC). One of its meetings in 2021 signalled the start of Mr Xi’s “common prosperity” campaign (which aimed to chasten billionaires and reduce inequality). A meeting in February gave the nod to China’s version of a “cash for clunkers” scheme, which provides households and firms an incentive to trade in old appliances and equipment for new gear. On economic policymaking, these commissions have crowded out the influence of the State Council. Since a tweak in rules last year, the council’s executives meet only two or three times a month, rather than every week.

在習的领导下，类似的党委员会不断增多。与政府机构相比，这些党组织在行动上限制较少，成员之间也没有尴尬的年龄限制。其中一个重要例子是中央财经委员会（CFEAC）。该委员会在2021年的一次会议中标志着習“共同繁荣”运动的开始（旨在惩治亿万富翁，减少不平等）。2月份的一次会议通过了中国版的“以旧换新”计划，该计划为家庭和企业提供换旧设备的激励措施。在经济政策制定上，这些委员会挤占了国务院的影响力。自从去年的规则微调后，国务院的高层领导每月只开展两到三次会议，而不再是每周一次。

If Mr Li has lost clout, who has gained it? The obvious answer is He Lifeng, another deputy prime minister, who has become Mr Xi’s economic tsar. Mr He (pictured, left) hails from the province of Fujian, where Mr Xi spent 17 years of his career. In Xiamen, a port city, they became friends and colleagues. Mr He was even a guest at the future president’s second wedding.

如果李失去了影响力，那么谁获得了权力呢？显而易见的答案是何立峰，另一位副总理，已成为習的经济领袖。何先生来自福建省，在那里度过了他事业的17年。他们在厦门这座港口城市成为了朋友和同事。何甚至是未来总统的第二次婚礼的嘉宾。

Mr He holds a position on three of the party’s financial commissions, notes Macropolo, a think-tank in America. He is the office director of CFEAC. He also sits on two lower commissions that oversee the financial system and its regulators. The commissions’ vision was summed up in an article in Qiushi, the party’s main theoretical journal, in December. It insisted that finance serve the “real” economy, warned about the dangers of “pseudo-innovation” in the sector, and emphasised that financial risks can be infectious, hidden and destructive. “Xi Jinping, at some level, does not like finance people with fancy suits and nice shoes,” says one economist.

据美国智库MacroPolo指出，何在三个党的金融委员会担任职务。他是CFEAC的办公室主任。他还在两个监管金融体系及其监管机构的下级委员会担任职务。党的主要理论刊物《求是》中的一篇文章总结了这些委员会的愿景。该文章坚持认为金融应服务“实体”经济，警告金融领域“伪创新”的危险，并强调金融风险可能具有传染性、隐性和破坏性。“習近平在某种程度上不喜欢穿着西装革履的金融人士，”一位经济学家说。

Mr He last year oversaw the appointment of Li Yunze as the head of China’s new financial super-regulator, which covers both banking and insurance. This new body has also taken on some of the supervisory responsibilities previously held by the People’s Bank of China. The central bank has never enjoyed the autonomy or stature granted to monetary authorities elsewhere. Its governor, Pan Gongsheng, holds a PhD and is probably a better economist than any of the policymakers above him. But the bank nonetheless appears to be losing staff and status.

去年，何监督了李云泽被任命为中国新的金融超级监管机构的负责人，该机构涵盖了银行和保险业务。这个新机构还接管了之前由中国人民银行担任的部分监管职责。中央银行从来没有得到其他地方货币当局所享受的自治权和地位。尽管该行长潘功胜持有博士学位，很可能是所有位于其上的决策者中最杰出的经济学家，但该银行似乎仍在流失员工和地位。

According to “Decoding Chinese Politics”, a project of the Asia Society Policy Institute, another think-tank in America, Mr He has personal links with officials across China’s economic-policymaking apparatus. Liu Kun, his classmate at Xiamen University in Fujian, served as finance minister until 2023 and helped pick the current holder of that office, Lan Fo’an. The head of China’s anti-monopoly agency, Luo Wen, spent a year as Mr He’s deputy when he was head of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s main planning agency.

根据美国亚洲协会政策研究所（Asia Society Policy Institute）的一个名为“解读中国政治”的项目，另一家美国智库称 ，何与中国各个经济政策制定机构的官员都有着私人联系。刘昆，他在福建厦门大学的同学，曾担任财政部长直至2023年，并帮助挑选了现任财政部长蓝佛安。中国反垄断机构的负责人罗文，曾在何担任国家发展和改革委员会主管（中国主要的计划机构）期间担任他的副手。

The current head of the NDRC, Zheng Shanjie, also comes from Fujian province and worked under Mr He in Xiamen. He once criticised local officials in another coastal city for their complacency. “If you don’t make progress, you are regressing; if you progress slowly, you are regressing.” His own progress has been impressive. In 1997, he was the manager of a cod-liver-oil factory, having risen up the ranks from a job in equipment maintenance.

当前国家发展和改革委员会主席郑山洁也来自福建省，曾在厦门跟随何工作。他曾批评另一个沿海城市的当地官员的自满态度。“如果你不进步，你就是在倒退；如果你进步缓慢，你也是在倒退。”他自己的进步令人印象深刻。在1997年，他是一家鱼肝油工厂的经理，已经从设备维护工作中升迁而来。

At this year’s China Development Forum, both Mr Zheng and his mentor, Mr He, urged foreign businesspeople to invest in China’s “new productive forces”, dangling the opportunities offered by the country’s vast market and ambitious programme of innovation. A smiling Mr He was pictured shaking hands with bosses from Blackstone, Pfizer, Corning and Siemens outside a guesthouse on the site, near where an emperor used to fish. If foreign businesses want to know what line China’s leaders are casting, Mr He is the person to see. Now, will they bite? ■

在今年的中国发展高层论坛上，无论是郑先生还是他的导师何先生都敦促外国商界投资于中国的“新生产力”，并展示了中国庞大市场和雄心勃勃的创新计划所提供的机遇。照片中，微笑着的何与来自黑石集团、辉瑞、康宁和西门子等公司的老板握手，站在一处原皇宫垂钓之地的客栈外。如果外国企业想要知道中国领导层意图，何先生将是他们需要联系的人。现在，他们会中招吗？ ■

回到目录

中国 | 三体羞辱 (China | Three-body shaming)

中国民族主义者对“三体问题”有意见 (Chinese nationalists have issues with “3 Body Problem”)

该节目在西方大受欢迎。但其历史教训并非适合所有人。 (The show is a hit in the West. But its history lesson is not for everyone)

这本书充满了技术行话，大量涉及粒子加速器和纳米技术的参考资料。故事背景是地球为迎接外星人入侵作准备，气氛阴郁。尽管如此，《三体问题》是由刘慈欣于2008年出版以来在中国取得了巨大的成功。该书在2014年被翻译成英文，很快在西方获得了奖项和粉丝。在2020年，美国流媒体巨头Netflix 宣布将该小说改编成一部高成本的电视剧后，大多数读者欣喜不已。

The book is full of technical jargon, with copious references to particle accelerators and nanotechnology. The story, about Earth preparing for an alien invasion, is dark. Nevertheless, “The Three-Body Problem” by Liu Cixin has been a huge hit in China since it was published in 2008. It was translated into English in 2014 and quickly gathered awards and fans in the West, too. Most readers rejoiced when Netflix, an American streaming giant, announced in 2020 that it was turning the novel into a big-budget television series.

这部名为“三体问题”的剧集于3月21日在美国上映，并获得了积极的评价。中国地区无法观看Netflix。但很多中国观众通过盗版网站或软件绕过官方互联网控制来观看该剧。它成为微博（一个社交媒体平台）上最热门的话题之一。许多评论者似乎喜欢这个版本（之前在中国有过一次改编）。然而，民族主义者并不认同。

The series, called “3 Body Problem”, launched on March 21st to positive reviews in America. Netflix is blocked in China. But many in the country managed to watch the show using pirate sites or software that can bypass official internet controls. It became one of the hottest-trending topics on Weibo, a social-media platform. Many commenters seemed to like this version (a previous adaptation was produced in China). Nationalists, however, did not.

民族主义者易生不满，因为Netflix删减了小说中的一些中国元素。在剧集中，大部分情节发生在伦敦和牛津，而在书中北京的戏份更多。同样，在剧中，一些中国角色被英语为主的西方角色取代了。

Quick to take offence, the nationalists were unhappy that Netflix dropped some of the Chinese elements of the novel. In the series, much of the action takes place in London and Oxford, whereas in the book Beijing features more heavily. Similarly, in the show some Chinese characters have been replaced with English-speaking Westerners.

然而，引起民族主义者不满的主要原因与Netflix在剧中保留的一个情节有关。第一集发生在上世纪60年代文化大革命期间。一个名为叶文洁（如图所示）的年轻人目睹了她的父亲，一位物理教授，被红卫兵（毛派的青年团伙）殴打致死，因为他拒绝放弃科学，赞成马克思主义。这一经历导致她对人类失去信心。

But the main reason nationalists are upset has to do with something that Netflix left in the show. The first episode begins in the 1960s, during the Cultural Revolution. A young character called Ye Wenjie (pictured) witnesses her father, a physics professor, getting beaten to death by Red Guards (Maoist youth gangs) for refusing to renounce science in favour of Marxism. The experience causes her to lose faith in humanity.

这一场景取材于严酷的历史事实——许多学者在那个时期被他们的学生杀害。这也是小说中的一个重要部分。刘慈欣不得不将这一情节藏在中部，以取悦中国审查机构。但它却出现在英文翻译的开头。民族主义者不在乎。“为什么中国的错误要被永远记住呢？”网友们一个人抱怨说。另一个人说Netflix“只是借故制造这些醋，”暗示这个系列节目只是为了贬低中国而制作的。

The scene is inspired by grim historical facts—many academics were killed by their students during that period. It is also an important part of the novel. Mr Liu had to bury it in the middle in order to placate Chinese censors. But it comes at the beginning of the English translation. The nationalists do not care. “Why should China’s mistakes be remembered for ever?” complained one online. Netflix “made a batch of dumplings just as an excuse for using this vinegar”, said another, suggesting that the series was produced only to make China look bad.

值得一提的是，中国的民族主义者并不反对对刘慈欣作品的所有改编。他们更倾向于喜欢2019年发布的中国语言电影《流浪地球》，该电影是根据另一部小说改编的。就像《三体问题》一样，故事情节非常紧凑。一群宇航员必须阻止地球与木星相撞。但是英雄都是中国人，电影设定在未来。 ■

China’s nationalists, mind you, are not opposed to all adaptations of Mr Liu’s work. They tended to like “The Wandering Earth”, a Chinese-language film released in 2019 that was based on a different novel. As in “3 Body Problem”, the stakes are high. A group of astronauts has to stop Earth from colliding with Jupiter. But the heroes are all Chinese and the film is set in the future. ■

回到目录

美国 | 双重反转 (United States | Double flip-flopping)

美国国会两院可能在十一月发生变化 (Both chambers of America’s Congress may flip in November)

一场具有重大影响的历史性事件即将发生 (A historic first is in the offing—with big consequences)

美国人将在11月选举471名联邦官员：众议院435名成员，34名参议员，一名副总统和一名总统。这些竞选活动被即将到来的乔·拜登总统和他的前任唐纳德·特朗普之间的再次对决所掩盖，这将被宣传为民主与专制之间的斗争（并且估计会被人提升到300亿美元的竞选支出）。七个月这样的战斗将会令人疲惫。

AMERICANS WILL elect 471 federal officials in November: 435 members of the House of Representatives, 34 senators, a vice-president and a president. These contests are overshadowed by the impending rematch between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump, his predecessor, which will be pitched as a struggle between democracy and autocracy (and amplified by a projected $3bn in campaign spending). Seven months of this promises to be wearing.

然而，如果你看着选票，可能会发现一些奇异的事情。目前，华盛顿被细微的边缘所分割。民主党仅以100个议席中的两个议席控制参议院。共和党以435个议席中的五个议席控制着众议院（马上迈克·加拉格尔退休后，这个边缘将缩小到四个）。

Cast your eye down the ballot, however, and something exotic is in the offing. At the moment, Washington is divided by the thinnest of margins. Democrats control the Senate by just two seats out of 100. Republicans control the House of Representatives by five out of 435 (a margin that will shrink to four once Mike Gallagher of Wisconsin retires next month).

在选举之后，两个议院的控制权可能会翻转。在参议院，今年参选的议席处于对共和党极为有利的州。相比之下，在众议院，民主党可能会通过对抗共和党领导混乱来夺回控制权。这种双重翻转将是一种政治上的高超技巧：这样的情况以前从未发生过。

Stay up to date with our new daily update, The US in brief, and our presidential poll tracker.

参议院任期六年，每两年只有三分之一的议席参选。今年的情况对民主党并不友好。西弗吉尼亚州参议员乔·曼钦，成功保住了他所在的疲惫的、支持特朗普的州的民主党代表席位，现在即将退休。他的席位几乎可以肯定会被共和党填补，使得竞选的起点实际上是50比50。

Read more of our coverage of the US elections of 2024.

本周始，共和党现任参议员们看起来很舒适。民主党唯一有可能战胜的两人是德克萨斯州的泰德·克鲁兹和佛罗里达州的里克·斯科特——两人都不代表拜登可能会认真对抗的州。综上所述，从数字上看，民主党情况不容乐观。他们将需要做好完美的防守才能达到50比50的参议院控制权（同时希望副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯继续为他们打破平局）。

After the election, control of both chambers could flip. In the Senate, the seats contested this year are in extremely favourable states for Republicans. In the House, by contrast, Democrats campaigning against the chaos of Republican leadership may wrest back control. A double flip would be quite a feat of political gymnastics: it has never happened before.

是的，民主党在2022年中期选举中成功实现了这一壮举（实际上在宾夕法尼亚州增加了一个席位）。他们预计能保持筹款优势。而在以往的选举中损害共和党的候选人素质问题可能会再次出现。例如，在亚利桑那州，2022年输给一位弱势民主党挑战者的选举否认狂狡辩者卡里·莱克，可能会成为该党的参议员候选人。在宾夕法尼亚州，戴夫·麦考密克，输给名人医生梅姆特·奥兹的共和党候选人，因其乘坐私人飞机前往康涅狄格州的别墅被指控投机生意，引起了关注。

Senate terms last six years, and only one-third are contested every two years. The mix this year is unkind to Democrats. Joe Manchin, the West Virginia senator who managed to remain the Democratic representative of his Trump-loving state, is retiring. His seat will almost certainly be filled by a Republican, leaving the starting-point for the race at, in essence, 50-50.

众议院选举对共和党并不像参议院选举对民主党那样不利。但与共和党保持下去相比，民主党更有可能控制众议院，原因有多个。

Of the seven competitive Senate races this cycle, all are now held by Democrats. Five are in presidential battleground states (Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin). They are winnable by Democrats, but none comfortably (see chart). In Montana and Ohio Mr Biden is likely to lose, but the incumbent Democratic senators, Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown, must prevail if the party is to retain control of the chamber. They are the last remaining Democrats holding statewide office in their respective states. Adding to the Democrats’ headaches, Larry Hogan, a popular Republican ex-governor of ordinarily deep-Democratic Maryland, plans to run for its Senate seat.

首先，共和党对众议院的管理一直混乱，即使按照国会的低标准来看也是如此。去年，共和党强硬派史无前例地罢免了议长。上周，他们中的一员玛乔瑞·泰勒·格林提出了弹劾现任议长的动议。更平常的力量也在反对共和党。人们预计民主党会比他们花更多的钱。且有十几名共和党人所代表的选区投票支持拜登；而支持特朗普的选区中只有五名民主党人。

Republican incumbents, meanwhile, look comfortable. The two that Democrats have the slightest chance of upsetting are Ted Cruz of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida—neither of whom represents states that Mr Biden will be seriously contesting. Overall, then, the maths look troubling for Democrats. They will need to play perfect defence to get to a 50-50 Senate (and hope that Kamala Harris remains vice-president to break ties in their favour).

参众两院的翻转可能看起来有些奇怪，因为当美国政治如此民族化和两极分化时。人们投票支持一党总统候选人和另一党的国会候选人的分票投票，从常见变成了例外。在1992年、1996年和2000年的总统选举年份举行的参议院选举中，大约有三分之一的情况是选民选择一党总统候选人和另一党参议员。而在2016年，没有这样的情况。并且在2020年的33场选举中，唯一的例外发生在缅因州。

True, the Democrats managed this feat in the midterms of 2022 (actually gaining one seat, in Pennsylvania). They expect to retain their fundraising advantages. And the candidate-quality issues that hurt Republicans in previous elections may recur. In Arizona, for example, Kari Lake, an election-denying demagogue who in 2022 lost her bid for governor against a weak Democratic challenger, will probably be the party’s Senate candidate. In Pennsylvania Dave McCormick, the presumptive Republican nominee who lost an expensive Senate primary in 2022 to a celebrity doctor, Mehmet Oz, is dogged by allegations of carpet-bagging over his private-jet travel to his mansion in Connecticut.

同时，共和党控制参议院将意味着如果特朗普重新夺回白宫，他将更容易确认他最古怪的潜在任命人选。而如果连任的话，拜登发现他提名填补司法职位的人选会遭到拒绝。

The House elections are not so tilted against the Republicans as the Senate elections are against the Democrats. But Democrats have a more credible case for taking the chamber than the Republicans do for keeping it, for a number of reasons.

对于国会山的竞争尚未引起很大的公众关注。也许应该引起关注。尽管美国人对下一任总统的问题给予了大量关注，但其实他是否能够在位上做出多少成绩，他们关注得并不多。■

First, Republican stewardship of the House has been chaotic, even by the low standards of Congress. Last year, for the first time in American history, Republican hardliners deposed their speaker. Last week one of their ranks, Marjorie Taylor Greene, introduced a motion to depose the current speaker. More ordinary forces also militate against Republicans. Democrats are expected to outspend them. And there are over a dozen Republicans in districts that voted for Mr Biden; there are only five Democrats in Trump-friendly districts.

The possible flip-flopping of the chambers may seem odd when American politics are so nationalised and polarised. Split-ticket voting—in which people vote for presidential candidates of one party and congressional candidates of another—has gone from common to exceptional. In roughly one-third of the Senate races held in the presidential-election years of 1992, 1996 and 2000, voters opted for a presidential candidate of one party and a senator of the other. In 2016 there were no such cases. And in the 33 elections held in 2020 the sole exception was in Maine.

Split congressional districts have also declined precipitously. Before 2000 well over 100 districts typically had representatives belonging to a different party from the voters’ presidential preference. By 2020 this had declined to a record low of 16.

But as American politics have calcified into two mutually loathing teams of nearly equal size, legislative majorities that were once enduring have become narrow and unstable. Between 1932 and 1994, Democrats controlled the House for all but four years. Since then the chamber has flipped party control five times. Minor fluctuations—small shifts in turnout, the entry of a third-party candidate—can be decisive.

A double flip would matter for more than just novelty. Republican control of the Senate would mean that Mr Trump, if he regains the White House, would have a far easier time confirming his most outlandish potential nominees. Mr Biden, if re-elected, could find that his nominees to fill judicial vacancies were refused.

Republican senators are, for the moment, more internationalist than their House colleagues, so aid for Ukraine could pass through a differently divided government. But on the whole, divided government tends to be inimical to serious legislating—as experienced in the tug-of-war between President Barack Obama and the Republican-controlled Senate after 2015.

The competition for Capitol Hill has not yet attracted a great deal of public interest. Perhaps it should. For all the attention that Americans pay to the question of their next president, they devote surprisingly little to whether or not he will be able to do much from his perch. ■

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美国 | 列克星敦 (United States | Lexington)

斯托米·丹尼尔斯案件呼应过去丑闻 (The case of Stormy Daniels echoes past scandals)

应促使所有参与者审视自身的正义。 (It should make all involved check their righteousness)

将近30年前的1994年5月，前阿肯色州办事员保拉·琼斯对总统比尔·克林顿提起性骚扰诉讼。她说，1991年，当时是阿肯色州州长的克林顿将她引诱到小石城的一家旅馆房间，拉下裤子并要求她进行性行为，但她拒绝了。

Almost 30 years ago, in May 1994, a former Arkansas state clerk, Paula Jones, filed a sexual-harassment suit against President Bill Clinton. She said that in 1991, as governor of Arkansas, he lured her to a hotel room in Little Rock, pushed down his trousers and urged her to perform a sex act, but she rebuffed him.

克林顿先生否认了这个故事，他的律师称他在任职期间对民事诉讼具有豁免权。一名联邦法官最终驳回了琼斯女士的诉讼，但在最高法院驳回克林顿对豁免权的争论之前，发现——令人发笑的是——这场诉讼只会是一个轻微的干扰。事实上，肯·斯塔尔进行的调查以及被称为“白水门”调查的独立检察官之间的消息是秘密交流的。

Mr Clinton denied the story, and his lawyers said he was immune to civil litigation while in office. A federal judge eventually threw out Ms Jones’s claim, but not before the Supreme Court rejected Mr Clinton’s argument about immunity, finding—hilariously—that the suit would be a minimal distraction. In fact, information was secretly passing between the investigation by Ken Starr, the independent counsel in the ever-branching inquiry known as Whitewater, and Ms Jones’s lawyers.

琼斯的律师在克林顿作证时询问他是否与白宫实习生莫妮卡·莱温斯基有染，而他的否认导致了关于伪证和妨碍司法的指控，共和党控制的众议院因此对他进行了弹劾。参议院在1999年以跨党派投票对他进行了无罪裁决。对于像列克星敦这样挺身经历那些年里的性、政治和法律泥潭，然后在2001年9月11日早晨望着明亮清澈的天空怀疑自己是否一直都把注意力集中在正确的地方的人来说，很难在看到关于史蒂芬妮·克利福德的新纪录片《风暴》时，不免有些似曾相识的感觉。

Those lawyers asked during Mr Clinton’s deposition in the Jones case whether he had been involved with a White House intern, Monica Lewinsky, and his denial led to the charges of perjury and obstruction for which the Republican House of Representatives impeached him. The Senate acquitted him in 1999 in a bipartisan vote. For anyone, like Lexington, who slogged through the sexual, political and legal muck of those years, then looked up on the bright clear morning of September 11th 2001 to wonder if they had always had their priorities just right, it is hard not to watch a new documentary about Stephanie Clifford, “Stormy”, without some sense of déjà vu.

克利福德女士，曾以脱衣舞女和色情演员的身份出演“风暴丹尼尔斯”一角，声称唐纳德·特朗普在2006年的一场名人高尔夫比赛中与她发生性关系。在2016年总统大选前夕，特朗普的律师迈克尔·科恩支付了13万美元给克利福德签署了一份禁言协议。特朗普先生否认了克利福德女士的说法，但承认他补偿了科恩先生，以扼杀她的“虚假和勒索的指控”。这笔补偿是即将展开的美国总统有史以来第一次刑事审判，如果下个月按计划开始的话。曼哈顿地方检察官艾尔文·布拉格指控特朗普出具虚假的商业记录，以实施他没有具体指定的另一项罪行，但这似乎涉嫌违反联邦选举法。

Ms Clifford, who performed under the name Stormy Daniels as a stripper and porn actress, has said Donald Trump had sex with her during a celebrity golf tournament in 2006. On the eve of the presidential election in 2016 Mr Trump’s lawyer, Michael Cohen, paid Ms Clifford $130,000 to sign a non-disclosure agreement. Mr Trump has denied Ms Clifford’s story but acknowledged he reimbursed Mr Cohen, to stifle her “false and extortionist accusations”. That reimbursement is the basis for what will be the first-ever criminal trial of an American president, if it starts as scheduled next month. The Manhattan district attorney, Alvin Bragg, has accused Mr Trump of falsifying business records in order to commit another crime he has not specified, but which appears to be violating federal election law.

也许是因为这一事件涉及特朗普先生，并且发生在社交媒体时代，这场戏看起来甚至比琼斯女士的传奇更肮脏，而中心人物所付出的代价似乎比琼斯更为巨大。克利福德现在欠特朗普先生超过60万美元，因为她在诽谤诉讼中败诉，并且需要支付他的律师费。她说她的律师违背了她的意愿提起了这起诉讼。

Probably because this episode involves Mr Trump and has played out in the social-media era, the drama seems even tawdrier and the price paid by the woman at the centre seems even greater than in the saga of Ms Jones. Ms Clifford now owes Mr Trump more than $600,000 because she lost a defamation suit against him and is liable for his lawyer’s fees. She has said her lawyer filed the suit against her wishes.

像琼斯女士一样，克利福德女士在路易斯安那州巴吞鲁日贫困长大，被攻击为“拖车妇女”、“拜金女”和“荡妇”。像琼斯女士一样，作为注册共和党人的克利福德女士表示她没有政治动机。两人都受到了某些看似盟友的剥削。克利福德女士也像琼斯女士一样，因她的新的名人身份而备受鼓舞（同时也受到抨击）。《华尔街日报在2018年1月披露了她关于特朗普先生的说法后，她开始了“让美国再次兴奋起来”的脱衣舞巡演，并发现老年妇女和同性恋男性争相涌向她的场所。“这将是我一生中最美好的一天”，她在《风暴》中泪流满面地说，当她准备出现在“周六夜现场”时。

Like Ms Jones, Ms Clifford, who grew up poor in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, was assailed as trailer trash, a gold-digger and a slut. Like Ms Jones, Ms Clifford, a registered Republican, said she had no political agenda. Both were exploited by some seeming allies. Also like Ms Jones, Ms Clifford was buoyed by (and attacked for) her new celebrity. After the Wall Street Journal revealed her claims about Mr Trump in January 2018, she embarked on a “Making America Horny Again” strip tour and discovered older women and gay men crowding her venues. “This is going to be the best day of my life,” she says in “Stormy”, with touching sincerity, as she prepares to appear on “Saturday Night Live”.

但是，这部纪录片中情况逐渐变暗。克利福德女士继续在路上不仅是为了支付账单，还为了保护她的女儿免受喧嚣的影响。她的婚姻破裂了。提起诽谤诉讼的律师迈克尔·阿维纳蒂事实证明曾经从她那里侵占资金（他因此对她和其他客户犯罪而被判19年徒刑）。她的书稿版税收入中断，因为粉丝意识到他们的钱可能会流向特朗普先生。然后布拉格提出了指控，社交媒体上的侮辱演变成了死亡威胁。克利福德女士被眼泪汪汪地展示出来，大声阅读一些：“去死吧”和“你刚刚签下了你的死刑”。

But the picture, never bright, steadily darkens during the documentary. Ms Clifford stays on the road not only to pay her bills but to protect her daughter from the uproar. Her marriage disintegrates. The lawyer who filed the defamation suit, Michael Avenatti, turns out to have embezzled from her (he is serving 19 years for crimes against her and other clients). Her book royalties dry up as fans realise their money might go to Mr Trump. Then Mr Bragg files his charges, and the insults on social media turn to death threats. Ms Clifford is shown, near tears, reading some aloud: “Kill yourself” and “You just signed your death warrant.”

对于右派来说，对于左派来说，似乎历史是从特朗普先生开始重新开始的。在纪录片中，克林顿时代的先例并未被探讨。这应该让几乎每个人感到不安。当年，建制派新闻媒体对琼斯女士的兴趣不及对克利福德女士的兴趣。当时，共和党人对总统感到震惊，而包括许多女权主义者在内的民主党人则对指控他的女性感到震惊。然后是一个保守派检察官似乎决心将一项民事投诉变成刑事指控；现在是一个进步检察官选择针对前总统测试一项新的法律理论，之前联邦检察官选择不追究类似案件。当年被控者声称自己是受害者，并将检察官的选择转化为了自己的政治优势。到目前为止，这段历史正在重演。

Not just for the right but for the left it can seem as if history started anew with Mr Trump. In the documentary the precedent of the Clinton era goes unexplored. It ought to make just about everyone squirm. The establishment news media was less fascinated by Ms Jones at first than it was by Ms Clifford. Back then it was Republicans who were scandalised by the president, while Democrats, including many feminists, were scandalised by the women who accused him. Then it was a conservative prosecutor who seemed determined to whipsaw a civil complaint into criminal charges; now it is a progressive prosecutor electing to test a novel legal theory against a former president, after federal prosecutors chose not to pursue a similar case. Back then the accused claimed to be the victim and turned the prosecutor’s choice to his political advantage. So far that history is repeating itself.

在《风暴》中，唯一有追问自己选择的人是克利福德女士。她说自己不是受害者，当特朗普先生在她原以为是晚餐预约时突然提出性要求时，她同意了。她说特朗普先生在臭名昭著的“通往好莱坞”的录音中被听到说“女人会让他做他想做的”。她在“风暴”中说：“所有这一切最困扰我的是我觉得我对每位可能在我之后出现的女性都负有部分责任。”这种残酷的自我反省的行为，希望在这个悲伤故事中的其他人也能做出。

Poignantly, the one person in “Stormy” heard questioning their choices is Ms Clifford. She has said she is not a victim, and that when Mr Trump surprised her by seeking sex during what she thought was an appointment for dinner, she complied. She says Mr Trump “wasn’t wrong” when he was overheard saying, on the infamous “Access Hollywood” tape, that women would let him do what he wanted. “The hardest part about all of this is I feel like I’m partially responsible for every woman that could have come after me,” she says, in an act of brutal self-examination one longs for others in this sad story to perform instead.

即使考虑到这部纪录片怀有同情的观点，克利福德的勇气是显而易见的。她说她不会放弃，“因为我在讲真话”。但她为那个耗尽她一生的骚动提供了一个毁灭性的结尾。“这一切都毫无意义，”她说。“我已经完全没有希望了。” ■

Even allowing for the documentary’s sympathetic viewpoint, Ms Clifford’s courage is unmistakable. She says she will not give up “because I’m telling the truth”. But she offers a devastating coda for the furore that has consumed her life. “This is just pointless,” she says. “I have no hope at all, any more.” ■

阅读更多关于美国政治的专栏文章：“拜尔金·内塔尼亚胡正在疏远以色列最好的朋友”（3月18日）《沙丘》是对政治英雄及其部族的警告（3月14日）罗恩·德桑提斯在佛罗里达州走得太远了吗？（3月7日）*

Read more from Lexington, our columnist on American politics:Binyamin Netanyahu is alienating Israel’s best friends (Mar 18th)“Dune” is a warning about political heroes and their tribes (Mar 14th)Has Ron DeSantis gone too far in Florida? (Mar 7th)

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美国 | 勉强接受并忍耐 (United States | Grin and bear it)

非法移民是否有权拥有枪支？ (Do undocumented immigrants have the right to own guns?)

芝加哥的一家联邦法院认定一些非法移民有这个权利。共和党人感到愤怒。 (A federal court in Chicago decides that some do. Republicans are outraged)

2020年6月1日晚上在芝加哥是一夜混乱之夜。 一周前，乔治·弗洛伊德被明尼阿波利斯警官谋杀，抗议警察暴行的活动在全世界蔓延。 前一天，当时的市长洛里·莱特芬特首次自1968年骚乱以来请求国民警卫队的帮助。 正是在这种情况下，当时28岁的木匠埃里伯托·卡瓦哈-弗洛雷斯借了一支枪，加入一群男子保卫里尔独立村的一个轮胎店，以防范潜在的掠夺者。 大约晚上11点，一台白色汽车飞驰而过， 摄像头清晰拍到，弗洛雷斯朝着那辆汽车朝着打了七枪。 40分钟后，他被逮捕。

The night of June 1st 2020 was a chaotic one in Chicago. A week earlier, George Floyd had been murdered by a Minneapolis police officer, and protests against police brutality had spread all over the world. A day before, the then mayor, Lori Lightfoot, had requested help from the National Guard for the first time since the riots of 1968. Such was the situation when Heriberto Carbajal-Flores, a then-28-year-old carpenter, borrowed a gun and joined a group of men defending a tyre shop in Little Village, a Mexican neighbourhood, from would-be looters. At around 11pm, in full view of a camera, Mr Carbajal-Flores shot seven times in the direction of a white car that was speeding past. Forty minutes later, he was arrested.

迄今为止，这只是在那个炎热的夏夜疯狂故事之一。 然而，卡瓦哈-弗洛雷斯对财产的相当鲁莽的防卫可能会改变美国。 今年三月初，芝加哥一位联邦法官驳回了最初对他提出的所有指控。 墨西哥公民卡瓦哈-弗洛雷斯于儿童时期非法抵达美国，被控违反禁止无证移民（以及持临时签证的外国人）携带枪支的联邦法律。法官沙龙·约翰逊·科尔曼裁定，对他来说，这项法律是违宪的。援引革命战争中被允许携枪的前英国拥护者的案例，她认为卡瓦哈-弗洛雷斯有权进行“个性化评估”，看他是否有拥有枪支的权利；就他的情况而言，他有这个权利。

So far, just another story of madness on that hot summer night. But Mr Carbajal-Flores’s rather reckless defence of property may yet change America. In early March the last of the charges originally filed against him was dismissed by a federal judge in Chicago. Mr Carbajal-Flores, a Mexican citizen who arrived illegally in America as a child, was accused of breaking the federal law which bans undocumented immigrants (as well as foreigners on temporary visas) from owning guns. The judge, Sharon Johnson Coleman, ruled that, as applied to him, the law was unconstitutional. Citing cases of former British loyalists in the revolutionary war who were allowed guns, she argued that Mr Carbajal-Flores was entitled to an “individualised assessment” about whether he had a right to own a gun; and in his case, he did.

事实上，科尔曼女士裁定，一些无证移民是允许拥有枪支的。 尽管这几乎肯定会上诉，该裁定已经在共和党人中引发了风暴。 佛罗里达州共和党参议员马可·鲁比奥怀疑这一裁决是否被“用来嘲讽枪支法律以及对美国公民身份价值的整体理解”。这显示了一个保守派的优先事项，即几乎没有限制地拥有枪支的权利，可能即将撞上另一个强烈的反对无证移民的立场。

In effect, Ms Coleman ruled that some undocumented immigrants are allowed to have guns. Though it will almost certainly be appealed, the ruling has already set off a storm among Republicans. Marco Rubio, a Republican senator from Florida, wondered if the ruling was “being done to sort of mock both gun laws and also the whole…understanding of the value of being a citizen of the United States”. It shows how one conservative priority, the right to gun ownership with few restrictions, may be about to crash into another: a strong dislike of undocumented migrants.

一个世代以前，一个非法在美国的墨西哥人有权携带枪支的宪法权利会被认为是荒谬的。然而，由于最高法院的保守派裁决，这个问题已经出现。 首先是2008年的《哥伦比亚特区诉赫勒案》，裁定该国首都禁止手枪是违宪的。 然后是2022年的《纽约州步枪与手枪协会诉布鲁恩案》，裁定要求个人出示“妥善理由”以获得隐蔽携带许可证也是违宪的，任何没有1791年类似法律的枪支管制法律也是如此。现在，按照克拉伦斯·托马斯大法官的话说，第二修正案不再是“一个由官员酌情授予的二等权利”。相反，它与第一修正案相当，保护言论和宗教自由。

A generation ago the idea that a Mexican illegally in America could have a constitutional right to carry a gun would have been considered absurd. Yet the question has arisen thanks to conservative rulings at the Supreme Court that have widened the scope of the Second Amendment, which gives Americans the right to bear arms.

然而，宪法规定，携带武器的权利是“人民”的权利，而不仅仅是公民的权利。卡瓦哈-弗洛雷斯的律师们主张，他们的客户通过与美国的联系而成为“人民”的一员。尽管他非法进入美国，但根据巴拉克·奥巴马签署生效的承诺行政命令，他有资格获得免遣返保护。他被捕后的周末，他与长期女友结了婚，她是美国公民。他的孩子是公民。他们还主张，他的武器特定使用，用来阻止掠夺者，恰恰是许多保守派钦佩的行为。卡瓦哈-弗洛雷斯表示，警方指示他携带武器，并且他开枪是作为警告。 卡瓦哈-弗洛雷斯的一名律师罗斯·卡辛汉姆说：“我们的客户是一个合法的英雄。他是俗称的手持枪支的好家伙。”

First, in 2008 there was District of Columbia v Heller, which ruled that a ban on handguns in the nation’s capital was unconstitutional. Then, in 2022, came New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. v Bruen, which ruled that requiring individuals to show “proper cause” to get a concealed-carry permit was also unconstitutional, along with any gun-control law lacking an analogue in 1791. Now the Second Amendment is, in the words of Justice Clarence Thomas, no longer “a second-class right” to be given at the discretion of officials. Rather, it is comparable to, say, the First Amendment, which protects freedom of speech and religion.

在上诉中，政府律师可能会持不同意见。 在回应辩护的第一项撤诉动议时，他们指出，卡瓦哈-弗洛雷斯在与警方交谈之前就携带了武器，并暗示他的枪击显然不仅仅是为了警告，因此他的行为不是合法的自卫。 他们还辩称，禁止无证移民拥有枪支的法律是合宪的，因为《赫勒》案仍允许政府限制人群持有枪支。他们辩称，对非公民的限制是合法的，基于已经违法进入该国的人不能信任拥有枪支。这个观点最初获得了认可。

Yet the constitution says that the right to bear arms is held by “the people”, and not merely by citizens. Mr Carbajal-Flores’s lawyers argue that their client is a member of “the people” by virtue of his ties to the United States. Though he entered America illegally, he is eligible for protection from deportation under daca, an executive order signed into effect by Barack Obama. The weekend after he was arrested he got married to his longtime girlfriend, who is an American citizen. His children are citizens. They also argue that his specific use of a weapon, to deter looters, was exactly the sort of behaviour that many conservatives admire. Mr Carbajal-Flores says he was instructed by the police to go armed, and the shots he fired were warning shots. “Our client is a legitimate hero,” says Ross Cassingham, one of Mr Carbajal-Flores’s lawyers. “He’s the proverbial good guy with a gun.”

但这是在《布鲁恩》案之前，该案实际上建立了一项测试，即枪支法必须符合早期共和国的法律。 因此，法官科尔曼考虑了革命战争后对英国亲王的待遇。 加州洛杉矶加州大学法学院的亚当·温克勒指出， 在18世纪末，非法移民的概念几乎不存在，因此，“人民”包括美国国内的每个人。 温克勒先生表示：“很明显，无证移民有言论和宗教自由的权利。 因此，为了保持一致，人们可以想象他们也会有第二修正案的权利。”

At appeal the government’s lawyers are likely to say otherwise. In their response to the defence’s first motion to dismiss, they noted that Mr Carbajal-Flores armed himself before he even spoke to the police and suggested his gunfire was not obviously intended only to warn, so he was not acting in legitimate self-defence. They also argued that the law banning undocumented migrants from owning guns is constitutional, on the basis that the Heller decision still allowed the government to restrict classes of people from owning firearms. And they contended that restrictions on non-citizens are legitimate, on the basis that people who have already broken the law in moving to the country cannot be trusted with firearms. That argument was initially accepted.

接下来会发生什么？ 很快，另一个最高法院案件将决定是否可以限制处于限制令下的家暴施暴者拥有枪支；这可能会给出一些关于卡瓦哈-弗洛雷斯案件可能如何解决的线索。最终的决定可能会产生重大影响。例如，目前，伊利诺伊州要求任何想要拥有枪支的人申请许可证，并禁止持有绿卡的外国人申请。 如果这个裁决得以维持，这可能迫使该州考虑几乎任何人。 因此像鲁比奥先生这样的人感到愤怒。

But that came before Bruen, which in effect established a test that gun laws must be in line with the laws of the early republic. Hence Judge Coleman’s consideration of how British loyalists were treated after the revolutionary war. In the late 18th century, notes Adam Winkler, of the University of California, Los Angeles, School of Law, the concept of illegal immigration hardly existed, and so “the people” included everybody inside the United States. “It is clear that undocumented immigrants have a right to free speech and free religion,” says Mr Winkler. “So for purposes of consistency, one would imagine they would have Second Amendment rights.”

然而，温克勒先生指出，这种强烈反应有一种讽刺意味。 保守派通常会争辩，枪支管制法律并不能阻止罪犯购买枪支。 但是当他们不喜欢的人开始行使这些权利时，保守派并不总是如此支持广泛的枪支权利。 1967年，加州禁止携带已装上子弹的枪支，试图解除携带步枪的黑豹党的武装力量。 签署这项法律的州长正是罗纳德·里根。 对枪支的看法可能会改变，即使是在共和党人中也是如此。 ■

What happens next? Another case in the Supreme Court will soon decide whether domestic abusers under restraining orders can be restricted from owning guns; that may give some hints as to how the Carbajal-Flores case could be resolved. A final decision could have big implications. At the moment, for example, the state of Illinois requires anyone who wants a gun to apply for a licence, and bans foreigners without green cards from applying. If upheld, this ruling could force the state to consider almost anyone. Hence the outrage of people like Mr Rubio.

Yet as Mr Winkler notes, there is an irony to the backlash. Conservatives usually argue that gun-control laws do not stop criminals from buying guns anyway. But then conservatives have not always been so keen on widespread gun rights—at least when people they dislike start exercising them. In 1967 California banned the carrying of loaded guns, in an attempt to disarm the rifle-carrying Black Panther Party. The governor who signed the law was none other than Ronald Reagan. Views on guns can change, even among Republicans. ■

回到目录

美国 | 拜登的强烈反对 (United States | Biden’s blacklash)

乔治亚州的黑人共和党人为2024年制定了一项作战计划 (Georgia’s black Republicans have a battle plan for 2024)

乔·拜登今年将不得不更加努力赢得该州的黑人选民。 (Joe Biden will have to work harder to win the state’s black voters this year)

在黑人历史月的最后一个星期日，亚特兰大的埃贝尼泽浸信会教堂里充满了真正的活力。在传唱的福音歌曲中，就连笔者这位不信教的特约通讯员也感受到了一丝宗教感动，教堂的一群孩子提醒教众该教堂在政治上的突出地位。马丁·路德·金（Martin Luther King）二世就是在那里受洗，并在那里传道直至去世。多年来，教堂成员中有些人成为了立法者，如今，一位小女孩笑着告诉会众，乔治亚州第一位黑人参议员就是他们的牧师。坐在她后面的拉斐尔·沃诺克是乔治亚州两位桃花州民主党人之一，他们在2021年初帮助扭转了参议院的控制权，他向前伸出拳头与教堂的座位上激动欢呼声中进行了碰拳。

On the last Sunday of Black History Month there was real energy in Atlanta’s Ebenezer Baptist Church. Between gospel songs that made even your agnostic correspondent feel something spiritual, a trio of children reminded the congregation of the church’s political prominence. Martin Luther King junior was baptised there and preached there until he died. Over the years church members became lawmakers, and today a little girl told parishioners, with a grin, that Georgia’s first black senator is their pastor. Sitting behind her Raphael Warnock, one of two Peach State Democrats who helped flip control of the Senate in early 2021, reached out for a fist-bump as cheers erupted in the pews.

前一天，一批截然不同的乔治亚州黑人聚集在一起。在一个改建成的市中心仓库里，乔治亚州黑人共和党委员会举办了有史以来第一次的化装舞会。农场主和代表们登台发表类似特朗普风格的演讲。穿着红色闪亮礼服和毛皮披肩的女士们一边品尝炸鸡，一边聊天讨论他们计划在11月说服朋友没有按照传统投票给共和党。

The night before a very different set of black Georgians had come together. In a converted downtown warehouse the Georgia Black Republican Council held its first-ever masquerade ball. Ranchers and representatives took to the stage to give Trumpian speeches. Women dressed in red sequinned gowns and fur stoles nibbled at fried chicken while chatting about their plans to get friends to break with tradition and vote Republican in November.

保持最新，欢迎关注我们的新的每日更新美国简报，以及我们的总统民意调查跟踪器。

Stay up to date with our new daily update, The US in brief, and our presidential poll tracker.

阅读更多我们对2024年美国大选的报道。

Read more of our coverage of the US elections of 2024.

乔治亚州拥有大约30%的黑人选民，这是所有争夺政权的州中黑人选民比例最高的。过去二十年里，黑人涌入亚特兰大都市区，让乔治亚成为唯一一个民主党可以竞争的南部州。2020年，乔·拜登成为自1992年以来首位在那里获胜的民主党总统候选人。但是随着拜登与特朗普的再次对决逼近，民主党担心他们正在失去最忠诚的选民群体。

At roughly 30%, Georgia has the highest share of black voters of any battleground state. Over the past two decades an influx of black people into metro-Atlanta made Georgia the only Deep South state that Democrats can compete in. In 2020 Joe Biden became the first Democratic presidential candidate to win there since 1992. But with a Biden-Trump rematch looming, Democrats fear they are losing ground with their most loyal voting bloc.

截至2023年，在全国范围内，将自己认同为民主党人的黑人男性比例从80%下降到了62%。对于女性而言，这一比例从84%下降至74%。对拜登并不感到特别热情的黑人年轻人。乔治亚州的共和党人看到了机会。2022年的州长竞选是首次两位候选人都积极追逐黑人选民。斯泰西·艾布拉姆斯（Stacey Abrams）花费了1亿美元来争取他们的支持，而最终击败她的布赖恩·坎普（Brian Kemp）则派出黑人代理人，到黑人拥有的企业竞选，强调他委任黑人法官的记录。去年12月，一群民主党策略家发布了一份警告报告，即即便今年黑人选民的投票率微降，也可能将乔治亚州的胜利交给唐纳德·特朗普。

In the decade to 2023 the share of black men who identified as Democrats fell from 80% to 62% nationwide. For women it dropped from 84% to 74%. Black youngsters are particularly unenthused about Mr Biden. Republicans in Georgia see an opportunity. The governor’s race in 2022 was the first time that both candidates actively chased black voters. Stacey Abrams spent $100m courting them while Brian Kemp, who ultimately beat her, deployed black surrogates, campaigned at black-owned businesses and stressed his record of appointing black judges. In December a group of Democratic strategists published a report warning that even the slightest drop in black turnout this year could hand Donald Trump a victory in the state.

乔治亚州的黑人共和党人认为三个问题可能会影响他们的同胞：教育、犯罪和移民。州代表梅莎·迈诺（Mesha Mainor）于去年7月离开民主党加入共和党，她表示黑人学生在公立学校中受挫最为严重。去年，亚特兰大的白人高中毕业率比黑人高出12个百分点。3月20日，州参议院通过了一项提供家庭6500美元私立学校学费券的法案。她认为共和党关于学校选择的奋斗应该有助于他们吸引到来自各种政治阵营的选民。

Georgia’s black Republicans think three issues can sway their brethren: education, crime and immigration. Mesha Mainor, a state representative who left the Democratic Party in July to become a Republican, says that black pupils suffer disproportionately from failing public schools. Last year Atlanta’s white high-school graduation rate was 12 percentage points above the black one. On March 20th the state Senate passed a bill to give families $6,500 vouchers for private-school tuition. She thinks Republicans’ crusade for school choice should help them pick up voters of all political stripes.

在犯罪问题上，黑人社区往往不赞成自由政策，并且乔治亚共和党计划利用这一点。过去一年，亚特兰大围绕着建造一座耗资900万美元的警察训练设施“警察城市”的计划一事产生了分歧。值得注意的是，一位黑人女市议员提出该提议，该市的黑人市长支持该计划，去年的一项埃默里大学调查发现，少数黑人居民反对该计划。来自乔治亚州奥尔巴尼市的副治安官和市委员贾伦·约翰逊（Jalen Johnson）表示，他几乎记不起向白人家庭递交过死亡通知的情况。他说，共和党强硬打击犯罪的政策在“总是黑人男孩被枪击”的情况下更具共鸣。他指出，在特朗普总统任内，监狱改革也取得了实质性进展。

On crime black communities tend not to favour liberal policies—and Georgia Republicans plan to capitalise on that. For the past year Atlanta has been divided over a plan to build a $90m police-training facility dubbed “cop city” by protesters. Notably, a black councilwoman proposed it, the city’s black mayor has endorsed it and an Emory University survey from last year found that a minority of black residents opposed it. Jalen Johnson, a deputy sheriff and city commissioner in Albany, Georgia, says he can’t remember a single time he has delivered a death notification to a white family. Republican tough-on-crime policies, he says, resonate more when it’s always “black boys getting shot”. He notes that during Mr Trump’s presidency there was also real progress on prison reform.

2月底，一名委内瑞拉移民因为在雅典杀害一名护理学生而被捕后，凯利·洛夫勒（Kelly Loeffler）在亚特兰大一家著名的灵魂食品餐厅召集了一次会议。在晚餐时，黑人专家们谈论了他们对拜登Mr Biden’s policies对非法穿越南部边境的人的政策感到愤怒。一位黑人表示，黑人乔治亚州人看着他们的亲人因为贩卖大麻而入狱，而非法潜入美国的移民可以逍遥法外，甚至还会得到政府和非营利组织的援助。他们希望在这一轮中引起黑人民主党选民同样的愤怒。

Days after a Venezuelan immigrant was arrested for killing a nursing student in Athens in late February, Kelly Loeffler, who lost her Senate seat to Mr Warnock three years ago, convened a meeting at a renowned Atlanta soul-food restaurant. Over dinner black panellists spoke about how resentful they feel about Mr Biden’s policies towards people who cross the southern border illegally. Black Georgians have watched loved ones go to jail for dealing marijuana, one said, while migrants who break the law by sneaking into America walk free and are even rewarded with government and non-profit aid. They hope to drum up that same anger in black Democrats in this cycle.

这个摇摆州的黑人选民仍然倾向于左翼。但年轻的转向保守力量的黑人乔治亚州人却决心传福音。化装舞会上的一群大学女生表示，他们将不再容忍候选人把他们的选票视作理所当然。对于一些人来说，是知名黑人民主党人斯泰西·艾布拉姆斯，曾两次竞选乔治亚州州长，教会了他们，他们也在政治中拥有一席之地。当他们深思熟虑后，意识到他们一直被自己的政党所愚弄。

The swing state’s black electorate still leans overwhelmingly left. But the young black Georgians who have converted to the conservative cause are bent on evangelising. A band of college women at the masquerade ball said they will no longer tolerate candidates taking their votes for granted. For some it was Ms Abrams, a prominent black Democrat who ran for Georgia’s governor twice, who taught them that they, too, have a voice in politics. When they thought about it, they realised they were being played by their party.

“很多时候，一开始是有一位兄弟出现，”25岁的米迦拉·蒙哥马利（Michaelah Montgomery）在奥巴马总统任内长大，现在是一家名为BLEXIT的组织在亚特兰大分部负责人。“我们都信任他，因为他看起来像我们，并在我们的教堂演讲。”但现在，这已经不再足够。如果有一件事是她和民主党策略家担心失去乔治亚州的共识，那就是拜登今年将不得不投入更大力量，更加努力争取黑人选票。虚情假意已经结束了。 ■

“A lot of times it started with a brother,” says Michaelah Montgomery, a 25-year-old who grew up during Barack Obama’s presidency and now runs the Atlanta chapter of an organisation called BLEXIT. “We all trusted him because he looked like us and spoke at our church.” But that is no longer enough. If there is one thing that she and the Democratic strategists worried about losing Georgia can agree on, it is that Mr Biden will have to spend bigger and work harder to get the black vote this year. The days of the token fish fry are over. ■

回到目录

美国 | 噢，你能看见吗 (United States | O say can you see)

巴尔的摩桥梁灾难的影响 (The impact of the Baltimore bridge disaster)

弗朗西斯·斯科特·基大桥的倒塌将伤及这座城市，但也突显了其韧性 (The collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge will hurt the city, but highlight its resilience, too)

编辑注（3月27日）： 马里兰州警方表示，Key Bridge倒塌后仍有六人失踪，现在被视为死亡。

Editor’s note (March 27th): Police in Maryland said that the six people who remain missing following the Key Bridge’s collapse are now presumed dead.

巴尔的摩弗朗西斯·斯科特·基大桥倒塌的录像画面令人震惊。3月26日凌晨1点30分左右，一艘集装箱货船撞上了其支撑柱之一，1.6英里（2.6公里）长的大桥中段坍塌到了下方的帕塔普斯科河中，导致人员和车辆坠入水中。维修路面坑洞的工人当时正在桥上。“你永远不会想到你会看到…Key Bridge那样倒塌，”巴尔的摩市长布兰登·斯科特告诉记者。“看起来像是动作电影中的一幕。”

THE VIDEO footage of the collapse of Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge was shocking. At around 1.30am on March 26th, when a container ship rammed into one of its support columns, the central section of the 1.6-mile (2.6km) structure collapsed into the Patapsco river below, sending people and vehicles into the water. Workers repairing potholes were on the bridge at the time. “Never would you think that you would see…the Key Bridge tumble down like that,” Baltimore’s mayor, Brandon Scott, told reporters. “It looked like something out of an action movie.”

马里兰州州长宣布进入紧急状态。据估计有六人可能已经遇难。除了人员伤亡外，立即出现的问题涉及此次灾难的原因和后果——根据美国土木工程师学会（ASCE）结构工程研究所所长杰瑞·哈杰尔的说法，这是美国几十年来最严重的灾难之一。联邦调查局称此事不太可能是恐怖主义所致。

Maryland’s governor declared a state of emergency. Six people are thought to have drowned. Beyond the human toll, the immediate questions concerned the causes and consequences of the disaster—one of the most significant in America for decades, according to Jerry Hajjar, president of the Structural Engineering Institute of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE). The FBI has said that terrorism was unlikely to have been behind it.

这艘名为Dali的300米长货船原定从巴尔的摩前往斯里兰卡的科伦坡，据网络安全与基础设施安全局的一份未公开报告显示，货船“失去推进力”。船员据报通知官员称可能会发生桥梁碰撞。目击者称货船在撞击前灯光闪烁。当地居民在深夜听到一声巨响。“房子开始摇晃，”洛卡斯特角居民赛勒斯·吉尔伯特说到。

The 300-metre-long ship, the Dali, was heading from Baltimore to Colombo, in Sri Lanka, when it “lost propulsion”, according to an unclassified Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency report. The crew reportedly notified officials that a bridge collision was likely. Eyewitnesses say the ship’s lights flickered just before impact. Locals heard a loud thunder-like rumble in the middle of the night. “The house started shaking,” says Cyrus Gilbert, a resident of Locust Point, directly across the harbour.

调查人员将会想知道Dali为何失去控制。东北大学的全球供应链专家娜达·桑德斯表示，这艘货船去年6月曾存在检查问题。根据船舶数据库Equasis，智利当局曾因推进和辅助机械问题对其进行了“缺陷”评定（尽管随后在纽约进行的复查未记录任何缺陷）。

Investigators will want to know why the Dali lost control. Nada Sanders of Northeastern University, an expert on the global supply chain, says that the ship had an inspection issue last June. According to Equasis, a shipping database, Chilean authorities gave it a “deficiency” for propulsion and auxiliary machinery (though no deficiencies were recorded in a follow-up inspection in New York).

大桥本可以是结构牢固的。ASCE的一份报告显示，2020年马里兰州的桥梁得到B级评定，港口得到B-级评定。 邓迪大学科学与工程学院的马苏德·哈亚德阿沃迪表示：“桥梁并非设计用于承受船只对其支柱的横向载荷。” “毫无疑问，这座桥会因为对支柱的撞击而倒塌。”

The bridge could have been structurally sound. A report by the ASCE gave Maryland a B for its bridges and a B- for ports in 2020. “Bridges are not designed to withstand lateral loads from ships on their columns,” said Masoud Hayatdavoodi, of the University of Dundee’s School of Science and Engineering. “There is no question that the bridge would collapse due to the impact on the columns.”

乔·拜登总统承诺承担费用，尽快重建大桥。但城市已经开始感受到影响。港口暂时关闭，导致波及港口之外。该港口支持超过15,000个直接就业岗位，大约有140,000个岗位与其相关。马里兰州陶森大学区域经济研究所的达赖厄斯·伊拉尼表示，仅港口关闭可能每天造成大约5000万美元的损失。

President Joe Biden promises to foot the bill to get the bridge rebuilt as soon as possible. But the impact on the city is already being felt. The port is closed until further notice, causing ripples beyond the harbour. The port supports over 15,000 direct jobs, and roughly 140,000 jobs are linked to it in some way. Daraius Irani, of the Regional Economic Studies Institute at Maryland’s Towson University, says the port closure alone will probably cost roughly $50m a day in lost activity.

该港口是美国供应链中的重要环节。每年有超过50家海洋运输公司进行近1800次访问。在汽车领域尤为重要。其私人和公共码头在2023年处理了近85万辆汽车和轻型卡车，是美国所有港口中最高的。它还在处理农用和建筑机械以及进口糖和石膏方面名列第一，并在煤炭出口方面排名第二。

The harbour is an important link in America’s supply chain. More than 50 ocean carriers make nearly 1,800 annual visits. It is especially important in the automotive world. Its private and public terminals handled nearly 850,000 cars and light trucks in 2023, the most of any American port. It also ranked first in the country in handling farm and construction machinery, as well as imported sugar and gypsum, and ranks second for coal exports.

如果其他港口出现问题（比如劳资纠纷或网络攻击），可能会对美国经济造成严重打击。不过目前，国家影响可能还是有限的。纽约-新泽西和弗吉尼亚等其他港口应该能够填补空缺。穆迪评级机构首席经济学家马克·赞迪表示，国家经济将不受影响，但巴尔的摩将承受损失。通勤者和卡车司机将面临中断。去年，该桥每天服务3.4万辆商用和乘用车辆，约占该地区交通量的15%。

If another port experienced a hiccup (because of labour disputes, say, or cyber-attacks), the toll on the American economy could be severe. For now, though, the national impact is likely to be limited. Other ports, such as New York-New Jersey and Virginia, should be able to pick up the slack. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, a ratings agency, says the national economy will be OK, but Baltimore will suffer. Commuters and lorry drivers will face disruption. Last year the bridge served 34,000 commercial and passenger vehicles a day, about 15% of traffic in the area.

港口长期以来一直是韧性的象征。在1812年对抗英国的战争中，美国人成功捍卫了巴尔的摩港的麦克亨利堡，这一事件被方西斯·斯科特·基在他的19世纪诗歌中永恒化，后来成为国歌。这场悲剧将给城市和港口创造一个实施升级的机会，而这在港口运营时将更为困难。巴尔的摩可能会拥有一座更好的桥梁和港口。■

The harbour has long been a symbol of resilience. In the war of 1812 against the British, the Americans successfully defended Fort McHenry in Baltimore Harbour, an event immortalised by Francis Scott Key in his 19th-century poem that became the national anthem. The tragedy will give the city and port time to implement upgrades that would be harder when the port is active. Baltimore may emerge with a better bridge and harbour. ■

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美国 | Glock，stock 和 barrel (United States | Glock, stock and barrel)

芝加哥希望阻止 Glock 手枪被改装成机关枪 (Chicago wants to stop Glock pistols being turned into machineguns)

该市正在起诉制造商。 (The city is suing the manufacturer)

“那个混混拿出一把格洛克手枪，”布鲁斯·威利斯在充满动作的1990年圣诞经典电影《虎胆龙威2》中的角色说。“你知道那是什么吗？”你很可能知道。警察腰间的那把枪？很可能就是奥地利制造商格洛克制造的手枪。约翰·威克（John Wick）手中的那把武器在一个惊心动魄的场景中的一部分？其中肯定有一把是格洛克。从执法到好莱坞的违法分子，格洛克手枪在流行文化中无处不在。它们也是真实生活中罪犯的首选枪支。这让它们如此容易被改装成冲锋枪变得更加令人担忧。

“THAT PUNK pulled a Glock,” says Bruce Willis’s character in the action-packed 1990s Christmas classic “Die Hard 2”. “You know what that is?” You may well do. That gun on the hip of a police officer? It’s probably a pistol made by Glock, an Austrian manufacturer. That weapon in John Wick’s hands during a heart-thumping scene? One of them is definitely a Glock. From law enforcement to Hollywood lawbreakers, Glocks are everywhere in pop culture. They are also the gun of choice for real-life criminals. Which makes the fact that they can so easily be turned into machineguns that much more worrying.

3月19日，芝加哥市对格洛克提起了诉讼。犯罪分子利用廉价的附件将格洛克手枪改装成冲锋枪。这种非法装置被称为自动助燃器，但也被称为“格洛克开关”，尽管格洛克并不制造它们。它们大约有一枚硬币那么大，可以以不到一本精装书的价格购买，或者由任何拥有3D打印机的人在家中制造得更便宜。

On March 19th the city of Chicago filed a lawsuit against Glock. Using cheap add-ons, criminals are transforming Glock pistols into machineguns. The illegal device is called an auto sear, but it is also known as a “Glock switch”, though Glock does not make them. They are the size of a large coin, and they can be bought for less than a hardback book, or made at home by anyone with a 3D printer for much less.

此起诉讼是与致力于枪支改革的诉讼律师团体Everytown Law共同提起的，声称格洛克明知这个问题却仍未加以阻止。“没有其他手枪设计如此容易变成冲锋枪，”Everytown Law的执行主任埃里克·提尔希韦尔（Eric Tirschwell）说。“那为什么他们不解决自己的问题呢？”

The lawsuit, filed together with Everytown Law, a group of litigators specialising in gun reform, claims that Glock knows about the problem but has failed to prevent it anyway. “No other pistol design is so easily converted to a machinegun,” says Eric Tirschwell, the executive director of Everytown Law. “So why haven’t they fixed theirs?”

芝加哥以其街头暴力而臭名昭著，疫情只让情况变得更糟。尽管2023年与2022年相比，枪击案件下降了13％，但该市仍面临枪支暴力的波澜。去年有600多人被谋杀，尽管不都是因枪支，还有超过2400起非致命枪击案。芝加哥市声称格洛克正在让糟糕的情况变得更糟。该诉讼称，在2021年至2023年间，芝加哥警方共没收了1100支改装过的格洛克手枪。

Chicago is notorious for its street violence, and the pandemic only made things worse. Though shootings fell by 13% in 2023 compared with 2022, the city is still facing a wave of gun violence. Last year more than 600 people were murdered, though not all by guns, and there were over 2,400 non-fatal shootings. The city of Chicago claims that Glock is making a bad situation worse. The lawsuit states that between 2021 and 2023, 1,100 modified Glocks were recovered by Chicago’s police.

美国枪 lobby 国家步枪协会不同意归咎于格洛克。“芝加哥应该关注犯罪分子，”该团体的代理首席执行官安德鲁·阿鲁兰安达姆（Andrew Arulanandam）说。“没有犯罪分子，犯罪就会减少。”

The National Rifle Association, America’s gun lobby, disagrees with blaming Glock. “Chicago’s focus ought to be on the criminals,” says Andrew Arulanandam, the group’s interim CEO. “Without criminals, there is less crime.”

芝加哥并不是面对这波子弹的唯一城市。哥伦比亚特区和其他城市也报告了这些非法附件的问题。芝加哥是第一个因这些设备而提起诉讼的城市。这起诉讼得益于伊利诺伊州枪支产业责任法案，这是去年通过的一项允许对枪支制造商提起公共危害诉讼的州法，但也基于一项禁止机关枪的联邦法。这场诉讼可能是其类别的第一起，但可能不会是最后一起。■”

The Windy City is not alone in facing a barrage of bullets. The District of Columbia and others have also reported problems with these illegal add-ons. Chicago is the first city to sue over the devices. The lawsuit is made possible by the Illinois Firearms Industry Responsibility Act, a state law passed last year that allows gun manufacturers to be sued for public harm, but it also rests on a federal law prohibiting machineguns. This suit may be the first of its kind, but it probably won’t be the last. ■

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商业 | 反垄断者与机器 (Business | Trustbusters v the machine)

监管机构正在迫使大科技公司重新思考其人工智能战略 (Regulators are forcing big tech to rethink its AI strategy)

初创公司的收购被雇佣潮和紧密合作取代 (Startup acquisitions have been replaced by hiring sprees and tight partnerships)

反垄断监管者将大科技公司视为目标。在3月25日，欧洲委员会对苹果、字母（谷歌的母公司）和Meta（即Facebook的母公司）展开了调查。布鲁塞尔的监管机构认为，这些美国科技巨头为遵守数字市场法而采取的措施，并未达到要求。 这是一项涵盖广泛的新法，旨在确保欧盟科技行业公平竞争。

Trustbusters have big tech in their sights. On March 25th the European Commission opened a probe into Apple, Alphabet (Google’s parent company) and Meta (which is Facebook’s). Regulators in Brussels think the measures which the American technology behemoths have put in place to comply with the Digital Markets Act, a sweeping new law meant to ensure fair competition in the EU’s tech industry, are not up to scratch.

几天前，美国司法部和16个州的总检察长针对苹果提起诉讼，这可能是自25年前司法部与微软对抗以来对美国科技领域提出的最有野心的案件。该诉状声称，苹果利用其在智能手机领域的垄断地位“扼杀”创新，扼制竞争对手，阻止用户购买竞争对手的设备。苹果否认有任何不当行为。

Days earlier America’s Department of Justice, along with attorneys-general from 16 states, sued Apple in what could be the most ambitious case brought against American tech since the DoJ battled Microsoft a quarter-century ago. It alleges that the iPhone-maker uses a monopoly position in smartphones to “thwart” innovation, “throttle” competitors and discourage users from buying rival devices. Apple denies wrongdoing.

所有这些审查都是面向过去的；这些案件涉及科技巨头现有的产品和商业模式。但正值它们试图从下一波技术颠覆中获利时，审查变得更加严厉——像ChatGPT这样的“生成式”人工智能。这也改变了科技巨头们面对挑战的方式。

All this scrutiny is, on its face, backward-looking; the cases concern the tech giants’ existing products and business models. But it is intensifying just as they try to position themselves to profit from the next wave of technological disruption—ChatGPT-like “generative” artificial intelligence (AI). And it is changing how the titans of tech approach the challenge.

在以往技术变革的浪潮中，大公司通常会收购新兴创新公司以保持领先地位。在另一起诉讼中，美国主要的反垄断机构——联邦贸易委员会（FTC）指控Meta通过各种手段购买Instagram和WhatsApp等两家新兴竞争对手，扼杀了社交媒体领域的竞争。无论FTC在法庭上是否得逞，并迫使Meta剥离其中一家或两家应用软件，今天类似的交易都将被美国和欧洲的监管机构视为不可行。

During previous waves of technological change large companies often bought upstart innovators to stay ahead. In another lawsuit the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), America’s main trustbusting agency, alleges that Meta stifled competition in social media by, among other things, buying Instagram and WhatsApp, two budding rivals. Whether or not the FTC has its way in court and forces Meta to divest one or both of the apps, any similar deal today would be a non-starter with regulators in America and Europe.

由于收购变得更加棘手，科技巨头们转而开始在有前景的初创公司中进行分散投资。据研究公司PitchBook的数据显示，2023年，约三分之二的募集资金（总额为270亿美元）来自字母、亚马逊和微软等大公司。其中包括微软对OpenAI的100亿美元投资，后者是ChatGPT的开发商，也是当今全球最炙手可热的人工智能初创企业，以及谷歌对Anthropic的20亿美元股权，Anthropic是另一家自信设“大型语言模型”的公司。 这些巨头正在分散这些较小的投注：微软支持了其他模型制造商，比如Mistral，这是一家成立一年的法国公司，试图在竞争中对OpenAI形成威胁。（这些初创公司也在使其融资多样化，除了谷歌的投资外，Anthropic还可能从亚马逊那里获得高达40亿美元的投资）。

With takeovers getting thornier, the tech giants have instead taken to investing piecemeal in promising startups. In 2023 about two-thirds of the $27bn raised by smaller AI companies came from Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft, according to data from PitchBook, a research firm. That includes Microsoft’s $10bn investment in OpenAI, maker of ChatGPT and the world’s hottest AI startup, and Google’s $2bn stake in Anthropic, another creator of clever “large language models”. The giants are spreading these smaller bets: Microsoft has backed other model-makers, such as Mistral, a year-old French firm trying to give OpenAI an run for its money. (The startups are diversifying their financing, too: besides Google’s investment, Anthropic may get up to $4bn from Amazon.)

这些交易往往涉及到除了成为初创公司股东外的其他条款。通常情况下，投资方将获得对较小公司的技术访问权，有时是独家的。微软努力强调其对OpenAI和Mistral的投资并不涉及拥有股权（尽管它不愿透露具体内容）

Such deals often involve terms other than getting onto a startup’s shareholder list. They often give the investor access to the smaller company’s technology, sometimes exclusively. Microsoft is at pains to point out that its investments in OpenAI and Mistral do not involve taking equity stakes (though it declines to divulge what they do involve, exactly).

一些人工智能交易可能涉及这些科技巨头之间的协议。据报道，苹果和字母正在讨论一项协议，可能导致一些iPhone功能由谷歌的生成式人工智能Gemini提供支持。

Some AI deals may involve arrangements between the behemoths themselves. Apple and Alphabet are reportedly discussing one that could result in some iPhone features being powered by Gemini, the search giant’s generative AI.

另一种方式是挖掘优秀的人工智能企业家和技术人才。据研究公司Live Data Technologies称，自2022年初以来，字母、亚马逊、苹果、Meta和微软共聘请了大约30名来自OpenAI、Anthropic和加拿大模型制造商Cohere的人工智能专家。3月19日，微软宣布将招募几乎整个Inflection AI的员工，后者是另一家开发尖端模型的公司，其中包括其联合创始人穆斯塔法·苏莱曼先生。（穆斯塔法·苏莱曼现为《经济学人》的母公司董事会成员）

Another approach is to poach star AI entrepreneurs and technologists. Since the start of 2022 Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta and Microsoft have collectively hired some 30 AI experts from OpenAI, Anthropic and Cohere, a Canadian model-maker, according to Live Data Technologies, a research firm. On March 19th Microsoft announced that it would recruit almost the entire workforce of Inflection AI, another builder of cutting-edge models, including its co-founder, Mustafa Suleyman. (Mr Suleyman sits on the board of The Economist’s parent company.)

反垄断监管者并不对这些发展视而不见。 大西洋两岸的监管机构已经开始调查一些不足以达到兼并的最近合作。苹果据称与谷歌之间的Gemini交易类似，该协议使谷歌成为苹果设备上的默认搜索引擎——该交易已经成为司法部对谷歌提起的另一项反垄断诉讼的中心。大科技公司在人工智能招聘实践上的做法很可能只是时间问题。 这些巨头可能期望在这些反垄断行动被追究甚至解决之前，他们将已经垄断了人工智能市场，就像他们对现在的数字业务所做的那样。即使这意味着反复进入法庭，也可以随后寻求宽恕。 ■

Trustbusters are not blind to these developments. Regulators on both sides of the Atlantic are already probing some of the recent tie-ups that fall short of full acquisitions. Apple’s rumoured Gemini deal with Google is modelled on a similar agreement that makes Google the default search engine on Apple’s devices—and that is already at the centre of another antitrust case that the DoJ has brought against Google. It is probably only a matter of time before they start looking into big tech’s AI-hiring practices.

The giants may be hoping that by the time these antitrust actions are pursued, let alone resolved, they will have cornered the AI market—as they have done with today’s digital businesses. Forgiveness can be sought later, even if that means repeated trips to the courtroom. ■

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商业 | 小心低空飞行的飞机制造商 (Business | Beware of low-flying aircraft-makers)

戴夫·卡尔霍恩卸任波音首席执行官 (Dave Calhoun bows out as chief executive of Boeing)

备受困扰的航空航天巨头宣布管理层重组。 (The beleaguered aerospace giant announces a management shake-up)

今年1月，一架波音737 MAX上的机身面板在俄勒冈州爆裂引发了“分水岭时刻”，戴夫·卡尔霍恩表示对于这家公司来说是如此。但这只是一连串事件中的最新事故，这些事件已经让这家曾经风光无限的航空巨头一蹶不振。在过去的四年里，卡尔霍恩先生试图努力——却未能成功——将公司重新扶正，3月25日，他宣布将在2024年底辞去首席执行官职务。尚未公布的继任者将在风雨飘摇的时刻接过控制权。 ■

The blowout of a fuselage panel from a Boeing 737 MAX over Oregon in January was a “watershed moment” for its maker, according to Dave Calhoun. But it was only the latest in a string of incidents that have brought the once high-flying aerospace giant low. After trying—and failing—to right the company over the past four years, on March 25th Mr Calhoun said he would step down as chief executive at the end of 2024. His as-yet-unannounced successor will take the yoke in the middle of a turbulent flight. ■

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商业 | 三道条纹，你就出局 (Business | Three stripes and you are out)

对耐克而言的市场胜利意味着阿迪达斯的商业成功 (A marketing victory for Nike is a business win for Adidas)

体育巨头之争愈发激烈。 (The contest of the sportswear giants heats up)

决定自2027年至2034年将阿迪达斯替换为耐克成为德国足球队装备供应商，纯粹是德国足球联合会（DFB）做出的商业决策。与此形成鲜明对比，德国人对这一结束了77年的纯德国合作伙伴关系的反应却带有极高的情感色彩。德国卫生部长卡尔·劳特巴赫用“Heimat**”这一德语词汇来表达他对这一商业行为的哀怨，这个词汇涵盖了家园、归属和地方的概念。经济部长罗伯特·哈贝克表示，他本希望看到更多“当地爱国主义”。巴伐利亚直率的首相马库斯·索德简单地称此举为“错误、遗憾和难以理解”。

The choice to replace Adidas with Nike as the supplier of kit for the German football team from 2027 to 2034 was a purely commercial decision by the German Football Federation (DFB). Germans’ reaction to the ending of a 77-year-old all-German partnership was, by contrast, highly emotional. Commerce is destroying a piece of Heimat, lamented Karl Lauterbach, the health minister, using the German word that evokes the idea of home, belonging and place. Robert Habeck, the economy minister, said that he would have hoped for a bit more “local patriotism”. Markus Söder, Bavaria’s straight-shooting premier, declared it simply “wrong, a pity and incomprehensible”.

DFB主席贝恩德·诺伊恩多夫感到“惊讶”于舆论的激烈反应。在他看来，这一决定简直是理所当然的。DFB财政状况极为困难，他收到了来自这家美国公司的报价远高于阿迪达斯，因此接受了。据德国媒体报道，耐克提供1亿欧元（1080万美元）来为国家队提供装备，是其德国竞争对手的两倍。对于年度运营利润达60亿美元的全球最大体育用品制造商来说，这只是小钱。而对于仅在2023年从运营中获得2.68亿欧元的排名第二的阿迪达斯来说，与耐克持平将使其财政雪上加霜。

Bernd Neuendorfer, head of the dFB, was “aghast” at the outcry. In his view, the decision was a no-brainer. The DFB is in financial dire straits and he received an offer from the American company that was far higher than the one from Adidas, so he accepted it. According to reports in the German press, Nike offered €100m ($108m) to kit out the Nationalmannschaft, twice as much as its German rival. For the world’s biggest maker of sportswear, with an annual operating profit of $6bn, it is pocket change. For Adidas, the distant number two, which eked out just €268m from operations in 2023, matching Nike would have burnt a hole in its pocket.

2023年初接任阿迪达斯首席执行官的Bjorn Gulden选择财务而非足球——尽管他早年曾是职业球员。在这位不苟言笑的挪威人的领导下，阿迪达斯似乎终于走上了复苏之路。其股价在过去12个月上涨了约40%。尽管其运营利润与耐克相比显得相形见绌，但对分析师来说，它却是个惊喜，他们此前曾预测会亏损。古尔登先生预计今年的运营利润将达到5亿欧元。

Bjorn Gulden, who took over as chief executive of Adidas at the start of 2023, chose finance over football—his earlier career as a professional player notwithstanding. Under the no-nonsense Norwegian’s leadership, Adidas seems to be at last on the path to recovery. Its share price has risen by around 40% over the past 12 months. Its operating profit may pale in comparison with Nike’s, but it came as a pleasant surprise to analysts, who had forecast a loss. Mr Gulden expects an operating profit of €500m this year.

阿迪达斯首席“经营得当”，一位经纪人Bernstein的Aneesha Sherman总结到。他修补了阿迪达斯与零售商之间的紧张关系。他将备受欧洲和美国时尚人士喜爱的两款经典阿迪达斯运动鞋——Gazelle和Samba的产量增加了十倍。而且，他已经找到了一个优雅的解决方案，用于销售由美国说唱歌手Ye设计的Yeezy鞋款的12亿欧元未售出库存，之后阿迪达斯与其断绝了联系。这些Yeezies正在分阶段出售，部分利润将捐赠给慈善机构。

Adidas’s chief “runs the business well”, sums up Aneesha Sherman of Bernstein, a broker. He has mended Adidas’s dysfunctional relationship with retailers. He has increased the production of Gazelle and Samba, two classic Adidas trainers popular with European and American fashionistas, ten-fold. And he has found an elegant solution to €1.2bn in unsold stock of Yeezy shoes designed by Ye, an American rapper (formerly known as Kanye West) with whom Adidas has severed ties after his offensive outbursts. The Yeezies are being sold in tranches with parts of the profit going to charities.

就耐克而言，它需要一次胜利。最近它警告称，今年由于On和Hoka这两个时髦的跑鞋品牌，其销售将受到重创。在中国这个庞大市场，它面临着来自安踏等本土竞争对手的竞争。另一家经纪公司Telsey Advisory的Cristina Fernández指出，耐克老板约翰·多纳霍正试图通过重新聚焦体育，来振兴其品牌，此外还在减少库存和改善与批发商的关系。去年12月，他还宣布未来三年将削减20亿美元的成本。而且在2月份，他表示将裁减大约1600个工作岗位，占耐克全球员工总数的2%。

Nike, for its part, needed a win. It recently warned that its sales will be clobbered this year by On and Hoka, two trendy running-shoe brands. In China, a huge market, it faces competition from homespun rivals such as Anta. Cristina Fernández of Telsey Advisory, another broker, notes that a renewed focus on sport is one way that Nike’s boss, John Donahoe, is trying to revive the swoosh, along with reducing inventory and improving relations with wholesalers. In December he also announced $2bn in cost cuts over the next three years. And in February he said he would eliminate around 1,600 jobs, or 2% of Nike’s worldwide workforce.

唯独在唐纳霍先生的斧头不会落下的领域是营销。他在上个季度为宣传耐克品牌投入了10亿美元，相比前三个月增加了10%。作为此次运营的一部分，据报道他愿意为德国队提供更多装备方面支付的费用，而德国队在世界排名中仅居第16位，却高过第二的法国队。德国人不应该批评古尔登先生和阿迪达斯，他们应该称赞这家公司的节俭之举。毕竟，还有什么比节俭更具Heimat色彩呢？■**

One area where Mr Donahoe’s axe will not fall is marketing. He pumped a cool $1bn into promoting Nike’s brand in the last quarter, 10% more than in the previous three months. As part of this campaign he is reportedly willing to pay much more for kitting out the German squad, which is ranked a middling 16th in the world, than for the French team, which is second. Instead of bashing Mr Gulden and Adidas, Germans should be praising the firm’s pfennig-pinching. After all, what is more Heimat than thriftiness? ■

回到目录

商业 | 自我管理的失传艺术 (Business | The lost art of self-management)

麦肯锡及其咨询对手是否已经变得太过庞大？ (Have McKinsey and its consulting rivals got too big?)

CEO心灵导师的黄金时代或许即将终结 (The golden age for CEO whisperers may be coming to an end)

匿名备忘录在三月份迅速在网络上流传。作者声称是麦肯锡前合伙人，指责这家著名的战略咨询公司近年来追求“不受控制和管理的增长”，并指责其领导层“缺乏战略焦点”，这确实令人震惊。典型的麦肯锡作风，他们警告称“一个真正伟大的组织”面临失去的风险。

AN ANONYMOUS MEMO briefly circled the web in March. The authors, who claimed to be former partners at McKinsey, rebuked the illustrious strategy consultancy for its pursuit in recent years of “unchecked and unmanaged growth”, and chastised its leadership for, of all things, a “lack of strategic focus”. With humility typical of McKinseyites, they warned that “an organisation of genuine greatness” was at risk of being lost.

备忘录很快被撤下，但这只是麦肯锡的不满情绪的最新表达。今年一月，其执行合伙人鲍勃·斯特恩菲尔斯在未能赢得大多数高级合伙人对其连任的支持后，被迫参加内部竞选顶级职位。尽管最终成功，这一事件预示着公司内部麻烦正在酝酿。

The memo, which was swiftly taken down, is but the latest murmur of discontent at McKinsey. In January Bob Sternfels, its managing partner, was forced into an internal contest for the top job after he failed to clinch support for re-election from a majority of senior partners in an initial round of voting. Although he ultimately prevailed, the saga hinted at the trouble brewing within the firm.

不久前，咨询行业看起来势不可挡。疫情期间，随着客户加快业务数字化、多元化供应链和响应增长要求强化环境、社会和治理（ESG）认证的努力，咨询费用暴涨。战略顾问（贝恩、BCG和麦肯锡三巨头）、四大会计师事务所（德勤、安永、毕马威和普华永道）以及埃森哲（也是世界上最大的外包商）等行业重要公司的咨询收入在2021年增长了20%，然后在2022年增长了13%（见图表）。

Not long ago the consulting industry looked indestructible. Fees rocketed during the covid-19 pandemic as clients sped up efforts to digitise their businesses, diversify their supply chains and respond to growing calls to bolster their environmental, social and governance (ESG) credentials. The consulting revenues of the industry’s most important firms—including the triumvirate of strategy advisers (Bain, BCG and McKinsey), the “big four” accounting giants (Deloitte, EY, KPMG and PwC) and Accenture (also the world’s largest outsourcer)—grew by 20% in 2021 and then 13% in 2022 (see chart).

然而，此后，“八大顶尖公司”咨询业的增长放缓，根据行业研究机构肯尼迪研究报告的估算和《经济学人》根据公司文件的计算，到了2023年大约为5%。由于客户面临通货膨胀和经济不确定性，他们减少了花哨的咨询项目。并购活动的减少导致了对尽职调查和公司整合支持的需求下降。

Since then, however, growth has been soggy for the industry’s “great eight”, slowing to around 5% in 2023, according to estimates by Kennedy Research Reports, an industry-watcher, and calculations by The Economist, based on company filings. Clients grappling with inflation and economic uncertainty have cut back on splashy consulting projects. A dearth of mergers and acquisitions has led to a slump in demand for support with due diligence and company integrations.

这给咨询公司带来了困境。在客户需求看似无限的情况下，它们招聘了大量员工。自2019年以来，麦肯锡的收入增长了三分之一，但员工人数增加了一半，达到了45,000人。随着初创公司和私募公司的工作机会减少，较少的顾问自愿离开公司，逆转了疫情期间员工流失率激增的趋势。

That has caused a headache for the consultancies. When demand from clients looked limitless, they recruited staff as if there were no tomorrow. Revenues at McKinsey are up by a third since 2019—but headcount is up by half, to 45,000. As job opportunities at startups and private-equity firms have withered, fewer consultants have left the firms of their own accord, reversing the spike in attrition rates during the pandemic.

现在，未来来临了，而且遇上了猛烈打击。贝恩和德勤已经支付一些毕业生延迟入职。许多公司的新手顾问抱怨工作太少，限制了他们的职业前景。裁员在咨询业通常较少见，但已变得司空见惯。所有四大公司都削减了顾问团队人数。去年，作为唯一一家上市公司，埃森哲宣布将裁员19,000名员工。3月21日，该公司报告称，截至2月的季度咨询收入同比下降3%，去年同期持平。此外，公司下调了未来一年的增长预期，导致股价下跌了9%。

Now tomorrow is here, with a vengeance. Bain and Deloitte have paid some graduates to delay their start dates. Newbie consultants at a number of firms complain that there is too little work to go around, stunting their career prospects. Lay-offs, typically rare in consulting, have become widespread. All of the big four have made cuts to their advisory teams. Last year Accenture, the only one of the eight that is publicly listed, said it would fire 19,000 staff. On March 21st the company reported that its consulting revenues for the quarter to February shrank by 3%, year on year, after flattening in the previous quarter. It also lowered its growth forecast for the year ahead, sending its share price down by 9%.

咨询行业以前曾经历过波动，包括互联网泡沫破灭和全球金融危机。然而，这次的复苏将面临三大挑战。第一是地缘政治。这些咨询巨头都位于美国或欧洲，几十年来受益于全球化，将触角伸向全球各地。作为咨询收入最高的公司，德勤在150多个国家和地区设有办事处。

The consulting industry has made it through choppy waters before, including the dotcom crash and the global financial crisis. Yet its recovery this time will be complicated by three things. The first is geopolitics. The consulting giants, all of which are based in America or Europe, have benefited from decades of globalisation during which they spread their tendrils into every part of the globe. Deloitte, the biggest of the bunch by consulting revenues, has offices in more than 150 countries and territories.

现在这些公司处境尴尬。上个月传出，由麦肯锡共同创立的Urban China Initiative为中国政府提供了建议，帮助制定了“中国制造2025”计划，该计划旨在减少经济对外国技术的依赖，并将中国置于从电动汽车到人工智能等各个领域的前沿。尽管麦肯锡否认写下该报告，但一些美国议员要求禁止该公司参与美国政府的合同。在2023年9月的12个月内，联邦政府向麦肯锡支付的费用超过1亿美元。

That is now placing the firms in awkward spots. Last month it emerged that the Urban China Initiative, a think-tank co-founded by McKinsey, provided advice to the Chinese government in 2015 that helped shape its “Made in China 2025” plan, which has sought to reduce the economy’s reliance on foreign know-how and place China at the forefront of sectors from electric vehicles to artificial intelligence (AI). Although McKinsey denied that it wrote the report, some American lawmakers have called for the firm to be barred from American government contracts. In the 12 months to September 2023 the federal government paid McKinsey more than $100m in fees.

现在，中国也开始将各种外国顾问逐出其市场。去年，全球律师事务所德同律师事务所解除了与中国律师事务所大成之间的合作，因为新的网络安全和数据保护规定使这种合作无法进行。虽然中国尚未崛起出具有国内实力的咨询巨头，但已经开始让外国公司感到困难。去年，贝恩上海办公室的员工被中国当局询问，原因不明。据报道，3月22日，中国政府正在审查普华永道在中国破产房地产开发商恒大进行的审计工作。中国政府指控该公司欺诈性地夸大其收入。这可能给普华永道在中国的咨询业务带来负面影响。

Now China is also starting to squeeze foreign advisers of various stripes out of its market. Last year Dentons, a global law firm, unwound its tie-up with Dacheng, a Chinese one, in response to new cyber-security and data-protection rules that made the combination unworkable. Although China is yet to produce a home-grown consulting powerhouse, it has already begun to make life difficult for foreign ones. Staff in Bain’s Shanghai office were questioned by Chinese authorities last year, for reasons unknown. On March 22nd it was reported that the Chinese government was scrutinising PwC’s auditing work at Evergrande, a bankrupt Chinese property developer that has been accused by China’s government of fraudulently inflating its revenues. That could weigh on PwC’s consulting business in the country.

问题不仅仅是西方与中国的关系带来了困难。今年二月，BCG、麦肯锡和较小的咨询公司Teneo的老板，以及交易商迈克尔·克林，因未能交出他们为沙特阿拉伯公共投资基金工作细节而被华盛顿的一个国会委员会传唤。该委员会正在调查沙特阿拉伯通过在美国的投资（例如在高尔夫等领域）努力建立“软实力”的工作。麦肯锡和BCG表示，如果公司披露他们为客户所做的事情，他们在沙特阿拉伯的员工可能会被监禁。近来，海湾地区对于咨询公司来说是一个难得的亮点，因为石油富裕国家正在大笔支出，努力实现经济多元化。

It is not only the West’s relationship with China that is causing problems. In February the bosses of BCG, McKinsey and Teneo, a smaller consultancy, along with Michael Klein, a dealmaker, were hauled before a congressional committee in Washington after failing to hand over details of their work for Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund. The committee is investigating Saudi Arabia’s efforts to build “soft power” in America through, for example, its investments in sports such as golf. McKinsey and BCG said that their staff in Saudi Arabia could be imprisoned if the firms divulged what they had done for their client. The Gulf has been a rare bright spot for the consultants of late, with the oil-rich states splashing out on advice as they seek to diversify their economies.

越来越少的人对被批评为“醒着的资本主义”的ESG（环境、社会、治理）热情减退，这为行业的复苏带来了第二个威胁。近年来，咨询巨头在构建ESG方面投入巨资，尤其是在减碳方面。在2021年，麦肯锡收购了三家可持续性咨询公司。在2022年，埃森哲收购了五家。到目前为止，这些投资似乎正在取得成效。BCG老板克里斯托夫·施韦策表示，2022年他公司收购的环境咨询公司Quantis，是公司去年增长最快的领域之一。

Waning enthusiasm for ESG, denounced by critics as “woke capitalism”, presents a second threat to the industry’s recovery. In recent years the consulting giants have spent big on building out their ESG offerings, especially around decarbonisation. In 2021 McKinsey acquired three sustainability consultancies. In 2022 Accenture gobbled up five. So far these investments seem to be paying off. Christoph Schweizer, the boss of BCG, which acquired Quantis, an environmental consultancy, in 2022, says that sustainability was one of his firm’s fastest-growing areas of work last year.

这种增长能否持续以同样的速度是不太清楚的。在美国，包括佛罗里达、密苏里和德克萨斯等由共和党主导的州，已经因为黑石集团在投资中使用ESG考量而撤回资金。《Source Global Research》1月份对咨询客户进行的调查显示，可持续性项目在客户的优先事项中排名第十，比2023年的第四位下降。一些咨询业的重要人士承认，某些客户正在减少他们的气候雄心。一位资深人士指出，受到挤压的消费者现在不太能够支付绿色溢价。

Whether that growth will continue at the same pace is less clear. In America Republican-run states including Florida, Missouri and Texas have withdrawn funds parked with BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, in protest over its use of ESG considerations when making investments. Consulting clients surveyed in January by Source Global Research, another industry analyst, ranked sustainability projects tenth in their list of priorities for the year, down from fourth in 2023. Some consulting grandees admit that certain clients are reining in their climate ambitions. Stretched consumers are now less able to pay a green premium, suggests one bigwig.

“八大顶尖公司”面临的第三个最棘手的挑战是技术变革。多年来，客户寻求他们的帮助来使老旧系统现代化。越来越多，咨询公司本身正在应对数字颠覆。一家大型收购公司的老板表示，他的交易员正在转向软件工具和数据提供商，而不是昂贵的顾问，用于评估目标公司所需的某些分析。许多顾问过去花费数小时进行的其他任务，比如整理和分类公司的支出习惯的数据，现在可以通过按下按钮来完成。

The third and thorniest challenge for the great eight is technological change. For many years clients sought their help to modernise creaky old systems. Increasingly, the consultants themselves are grappling with digital disruption. The boss of a big buy-out firm says that his dealmakers are turning to software tools and data providers rather than pricey consultants for some of the analysis needed to evaluate a target company. Other tasks that legions of consultants once spent hours on, such as compiling and categorising data on a company’s spending habits, can now be done at the push of a button.

这些咨询公司并没有袖手旁观。例如，贝恩已重新设计了进行公司尽职调查的方式，包括了使用网络抓取程序等巧妙工具。这些公司也在努力与人工智能保持一步领先。去年8月，麦肯锡推出了Lilli，这是一个ChatGPT样式的机器人，经过对其框架和其他知识产权的训练，顾问可以使用它来加快工作。其他公司也纷纷效仿。贝恩的执行合伙人曼尼·马塞达认为，这些机器人将释放顾问的时间，让他们更好地理解客户的“组织现实”。

The consultants are not standing idle. Bain, for example, has redesigned the way it does due diligence on companies, incorporating nifty tools such as web-scraping programs. The firms are also racing to stay one step ahead of AI. Last August McKinsey launched Lilli, a ChatGPT-like bot trained on its corpus of frameworks and other intellectual property, which consultants can use to speed up their work. Others have followed suit. Manny Maceda, the managing partner of Bain, reckons these bots will free up time for consultants to better understand the “organisational realities” of their clients.

客户对这种“生成型”人工智能的兴奋情绪还为咨询行业创造了新机会。施韦策表示，BCG已经与客户在技术领域完成了数百个项目。埃森哲在过去六个月中已经预订了价值11亿美元的生成型AI工作项目。其中很大一部分是与开发这些人工智能的科技公司合作进行的。埃森哲一直与微软合作。今年三月，这家咨询公司还宣布与Cohere合作，后者是一家AI模型构建公司，麦肯锡也与其结盟。贝恩则与OpenAI合作，后者是ChatGPT的制造商。BCG正在与Anthropic，另一家AI公司，合作。

Excitement among clients over this type of “generative” AI is also creating opportunities for new work. Mr Schweizer says that BCG has already completed hundreds of projects with clients around the technology. Accenture has booked $1.1bn-worth of generative-AI work in the past six months. Much of this is happening in collaboration with the tech companies developing the AIs. Accenture has been working with Microsoft. In March the consulting firm also announced a partnership with Cohere, an AI-model builder with which McKinsey has buddied up, too. Bain has an alliance with OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT. BCG is collaborating with Anthropic, one more AI firm.

这些合作似乎是咨询公司可喜的增长来源。然而，随着时间的推移，它们可能成为一种负担，尤其是如果它们取得成功的话。企业客户更快地适应聊天机器人，他们可能更快地直接联系硅谷的制造商。如果真的发生，人工智能给“八大顶尖公司”带来的短期收益可能会将它们推向边缘。这是所有战略大脑都需要深思的问题。■

Such partnerships look like a welcome source of growth for the consultants. In time, though, they could become a drag—especially if they are successful. The quicker corporate clients become comfortable with chatbots, the faster they may simply go directly to their makers in Silicon Valley. If that happens, the great eight’s short-term gains from AI could lead them towards irrelevance. That is something for all the strategy brains to stew on. ■

回到目录

商业 | 熊彼得 (Business | Schumpeter)

遇见挑战谷歌巨人的数字化大卫 (Meet the digital David taking on the Google Goliath)

杰夫·格林已经把The Trade Desk打造成了一个勇敢的在线广告强者。 (Jeff Green has built The Trade Desk into a plucky online-advertising powerhouse)

杰夫·格林学到了市场营销的艰辛。在青少年晚期，他被派往加利福尼亚海岸的文图拉，做为一个摩门教传教士。他每天花12个小时敲人们的门，大多数时候都是被人把门砰地关上。他在崇尚比基尼的西海岸上的销售话术几乎无法令人信服，但正如他告诉《经济学人》所说：“如果你能说服人们放弃婚前性行为、十分之一的收入、不再饮酒、不再吸烟或喝咖啡或茶，然后每个星期日去教堂三个小时，那么可以说你可以销售任何东西。”如今，他担任数字广告平台The Trade Desk（TTD）的负责人，他是该公司的联合创始人，总部设在他的老地盘文图拉。该公司的市值为420亿美元，仅略低于两家最有价值广告代理公司Publicis和Omnicom的总市值。在数字广告领域，唯一比TTD更大的公司——尽管要大得多——是大型科技巨头。

JEFF GREEN learned about marketing the hard way. In his late teens he was sent to Ventura, on the Californian coast, as a Mormon missionary. He spent 12 hours a day knocking on people’s doors, mostly to have them slammed in his face. His sales pitch was hardly compelling on the bikini-loving west coast, but as he tells Schumpeter: “If you can convince people to give up premarital sex, 10% of their income, no more alcohol, no more smoking or coffee or tea, and then go to church three hours on Sunday, then arguably you can sell anything.” Today he is head of a digital-advertising platform, The Trade Desk (TTD), which he co-founded and based in Ventura, his old stamping-ground. Its market value of $42bn is only slightly less than the combined worth of two of the most valuable ad agencies, Publicis and Omnicom. In digital advertising, the only firms bigger—albeit much, much bigger—are the Goliaths of big tech.

格林先生不再是摩门教徒。在2021年，这位亿万富翁公开与末日圣徒耶稣基督教会分道扬镳，谴责其积累的财富和对同性恋权益等问题上的不包容立场。但他仍是一个十分有使命感的人。他最新的战斗对象是谷歌。继三年前iPhone制造商苹果之后，谷歌今年旨在淘汰cookie，这些软件代码片段使营销人员能够跟踪消费者在第三方网站上的活动，并定向向他们投放广告。谷歌终止这一做法的理由是数据隐私。但格林表示这只是个遮羞布，而谷歌删除cookie的好处是为其自家全力进取的广告平台造势，却损害了其他公司。他说：“他们留下了自己的法拉利…还说其他人都应该骑自行车。”他的使命是确保数字广告机器继续四轮鼓动。

Mr Green is no longer a Mormon. In 2021 the billionaire publicly parted ways with the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, rebuking it for its accumulated wealth and intolerant stance on issues such as gay rights. But he remains a crusader. His latest fight is against Google. Following the lead taken three years ago by Apple, maker of the iPhone, this year Google aims to phase out cookies, bits of software code that enable marketers to track consumers digitally across third-party websites and target them with ads. Google’s justification for ending the practice is data privacy. But Mr Green says that is a figleaf, and that Google’s cookie removal benefits its own full-throttled advertising platform at the expense of others. “They kept their Ferrari…and said everyone else should ride bicycles,” he says. He is on a mission to ensure the digital-ad machinery remains on four wheels.

TTD专注于在谷歌、苹果和其他科技巨头的围墙花园之外的互联网部分进行拍卖式数字广告投放。在这里，目标是一些流媒体视频内容（例如Disney+和Hulu）、音频平台（Spotify）和新闻媒体。他将其称为“开放互联网”。这是一个利润丰厚的行业：TTD向广告商收取大约20%的佣金，或者说佣金率，以在规模上定向投放数字广告。但这是一个失衡的行业：格林先生大致表示，全球广告支出接近1万亿美元。去年，全球广告支出中只有10亿美元，约占1%通过TTD。谷歌主要来自数字广告的收入高达3070亿美元。为了确保在一个没有cookie的互联网中，广告商不会简单地只依赖谷歌或其子公司YouTube，TTD推出了一种名为Unified ID 2.0（UID2）的替代开源技术，希望将其打造成产业标准，以取代cookie。

TTD focuses on placing digital ads in auctions across parts of the internet outside the walled gardens of Google, Apple and other tech giants. That means targeting things like streaming-video content (such as Disney+ and Hulu), audio platforms (Spotify) and the news media. He calls this the “open internet”. It is a lucrative business: TTD charges advertisers a commission, or take rate, of about 20% to target digital ads at scale. But it is a lopsided industry: in round numbers, Mr Green says global ad spending is approaching $1trn. Just $10bn of that, or 1%, went through TTD last year. Google’s revenues, mostly from digital ads, were a stonking $307bn. In order to ensure that within a cookie-less internet advertisers do not simply double down on Google or its sister company, YouTube, TTD has rolled out an alternative open-source technology, known as Unified ID 2.0 (UID2), that it hopes will improve on cookies as an industry standard.

谷歌拥有巨大的优势。数十亿人使用其服务，为了使用这些服务，许多人使用电子邮件地址或电话号码登录其Chrome浏览器。这些标识符帮助广告商跟踪人们在谷歌网站上的活动。一些互联网用户对此选择感到不满，但这并不足以阻止他们使用谷歌搜索、Gmail、谷歌地图或YouTube。对于TTD这样的竞争对手的挑战在于找到一种方法说服那些在围墙花园之外的服务上使用匿名标识符的用户，以促进数字广告的发展。

Google has an enormous advantage. Billions of people use its services, and to do so, many sign in to its Chrome browser using email addresses or phone numbers. These identifiers help advertisers track people across Google’s sites. Some internet users resent this trade-off—but not enough to put them off googling, Gmail, Google Maps or YouTube. The challenge for rivals such as TTD is to find a way to persuade users of services outside the walled gardens to join a centralised system of anonymised identifiers so that digital advertising can flourish.

是什么能促使消费者放弃他们的电子邮件地址或电话号码，并邀请其他非谷歌广告的大量出现？ 格林表示，Netflix和Spotify等流媒体平台提供了答案。他们提供广告支持的层次，以换取更便宜的订阅费，许多观众都涌入这个领域。用于登录这些服务的标识符促进了广告商支付高价购买的个性化。这意味着流媒体平台会展示更少、更具针对性的广告。

What could induce consumers to surrender their email addresses or phone numbers and invite a non-Google advertising onslaught? Mr Green says streaming platforms like Netflix and Spotify provide an answer. They offer ad-supported tiers in exchange for cheaper subscriptions, which many viewers have flocked to. The IDs used to sign in to those services promote the sort of personalisation for which advertisers pay high prices. That can mean the streamers show fewer, more targeted ads.

他希望随着这种多层次的订阅和广告结合方式变得更为普遍，消费者将同意让他们的匿名标识符分布到科技巨头领域之外的互联网部分。 格林先生戴上他的传教士帽衷心表示，这可能为那些业务模式目前依赖于这些巨头喜好的网络发布商提供了生机。他指出Meta最近决定关闭Facebook新闻，这对许多内容提供商来说是一个收入来源，可能会对新闻产业的经济造成伤害，从而降低新闻质量，延伸至破坏政治进程。

He hopes that as such multi-tiered mixes of subscriptions and ads become more common, consumers will consent to having their anonymised identifiers distributed across the parts of the internet outside the tech giants’ domains. This, Mr Green adds with his missionary hat back on, could offer a lifeline to struggling web publishers whose business models currently rely on those giants’ whims. He points to Meta’s recent decision to shut down Facebook News, which was a source of revenues for many content providers, as potentially hurting the economics of the news industry, thus lowering the quality of journalism and, by extension, undermining the political process.

TTD为实现其老板的雄心定下了艰巨的任务。 咨询公司eMarketer的伊芙琳·米歇尔-沃尔夫表示，像UID2这样的标识符数量“激增”，竞争对手试图创造出取代cookie的替代方案。她怀疑它们中是否有哪一个能达到足够规模，从而绕过科技巨头。在Netflix式的互联电视平台上的关注也存在风险。大型流媒体平台可能更倾向于直接与广告商接触，而不是依赖TTD这样的中间商，这可能使其更难维持其佣金率。此外，就在cookie的颠覆正在进行之际，数字广告领域可能即将迎来更大的颠覆。人工智能聊天机器人可能会从发布商那里吸引流量，削弱他们的广告吸引力。

TTD has its work cut out achieving its boss’s ambitions. Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf of eMarketer, a consultancy, says the number of identifiers like UID2 has “exploded” as rivals try to cook up alternatives to cookies. She wonders if any of them will achieve the scale necessary to bypass the tech giants. The focus on Netflix-like connected-TV platforms is also a risk. The big streamers might favour direct access to advertisers over relying on a middleman like TTD, which could then find it harder to sustain its take rate. Moreover, just as the cookie upheaval is under way, an even bigger disruption of digital advertising may be on the horizon. Artificially intelligent chatbots could draw traffic away from publishers, undermining their advertising appeal.

作为一名出色的推销员，格林对这些担忧不以为意。3月20日宣布了两项交易，表明传媒巨头正在接受他的愿景。NBC环球公司表示，广告商将首次有机会竞标奥运会上的数字广告位，使用TTD作为交易平台。迪士尼宣布将扩大其面向Disney+和Hulu的实时数字广告交易，使用两个合作伙伴，TTD和谷歌。至于喋喋不休的AI，格林指出，它们也需要产生收入。那他们会怎么做呢？很明显。像互联网的其余部分一样，它们有朝一日也将被广告淹没。

Mr Green, ever the salesman, dismisses such worries. On March 20th two deals were announced that suggested media giants were buying into his vision. NBCUniversal said that for the first time advertisers would be able to bid for digital spots in the Olympic games, using TTD as the exchange. Disney announced it was expanding its real-time digital-ad exchange for Disney+ and Hulu using two partners, TTD and Google. As for chatty AIs, Mr Green notes that they, too, need to generate revenues. How will they do that? Obvious. Like the rest of the internet, they will one day be overrun with ads. ■

Read more from Schumpeter, our columnist on global business:Can anything stop Nvidia’s Jensen Huang? (Mar 20th)Elon Musk is not alone in having Delaware in his sights (Mar 14th)Apple is right not to rush headlong into generative AI (Mar 3rd)

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商业 | 数字男人和女人 (Business | Numbers guys and gals)

让会计再次性感起来 (Making accounting sexy again)

这个职业需要改头换面来吸引新人 (The profession needs a makeover to attract newcomers)

在抖音的术语中，“会计师”是性工作者的代码。现在，正统的会计师们希望重新夺回这个称号，并使之对潜在的招聘者有吸引力，无论是在这个受欢迎的短视频应用程序中还是其他地方。美国注册会计师协会（AICPA），作为该行业在美国的主要贸易团体，在抖音上发布了大量的职业技巧和年轻的会计师（真正的那种）展示他们最美好的职业生活。它拥有2.7万名追随者，但任务艰巨。

IN TIKTOK PARLANCE, “accountant” is code for a sex worker. Now proper beancounters want to reclaim the title and make it appealing to prospective recruits, on the popular short-video app and elsewhere. The American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA), the profession’s main trade group in America, has a TikTok feed laden with career tips and young accountants (the real sort) living their best professional lives. It has 27,000 followers—and its work cut out.

根据劳工统计局的数据，去年美国有160万会计师和审计师。这个数字比2019年的将近200万有所下降。许多资深从业者正在退休——据AICPA称，五年前，四分之三的注册会计师要么已经退休，要么接近退休年龄。年轻人对接替他们的岗位兴趣不大。2022年只有65,000名学生完成了会计学位，这一数字较2012年至2018年间每年约80000人有所下降。

America had 1.6m accountants and auditors last year, according to the Bureau of Labour Statistics. That is down from nearly 2m in 2019. Many veterans are retiring—five years ago three in four certified accountants were at or near retirement age, according to AICPA. Too few youngsters are interested in taking their place. Only 65,000 students completed an accounting degree in 2022, down from around 80,000 a year between 2012 and 2018.

这对美国商业产生了实质性影响。汽车零部件供应商Advance Auto Parts明确提到“某些会计人员的流失和会计职位的变动”是去年推迟季度法规报告的原因之一。它并不是唯一一个。根据彭博社的数据，2023年超过700家企业将潜在的财务报表错误归咎于人员不足，通常是会计领域，这一数字比2019年这样解释原因的企业几乎多出三分之一。

This is having a material impact on American business. Advance Auto Parts, a car-parts supplier, explicitly mentioned “the loss of certain accounting personnel and turnover of accounting positions” as a reason for delaying its quarterly regulatory filings last year. It was not alone. In 2023 more than 700 companies blamed a lack of personnel, typically in accounting, for potential errors in their financial statements, according to Bloomberg, nearly a third more than made similar excuses in 2019.

除非更多人被吸引进这个行业，这些问题将会不断增加。在弗吉尼亚大学为本科生教授这门学科的Ashley Austin表示，让会计这个职业变得有吸引力是困难的。她承认，其他金融工作，比如投资顾问或交易员，需要在大学花费更少的时间，在毕业后薪水更高。

Unless more people are attracted to the profession, such problems will proliferate. The rub is that making accounting appealing as a career is hard, says Ashley Austin, who teaches it to undergraduates at the University of Richmond. Other finance jobs, such as investment adviser or trader, require less time in college and pay more on graduation, she admits.

Austin女士试图通过将从业者描述为数据解释者而非豆子计数者来推广这个行业。普华永道（PwC），作为一个巨大的会计实践的“四大”专业服务公司之一，正与会计教授合作，使入门课程变得更少乏味。PwC在美国的首席招聘官Rod Adams表示，许多通常在大一课程中教授的基础工作现在都由计算机完成，这样有趣的创造性工作留给人类。

Ms Austin tries to promote the profession by describing practitioners as interpreters of data rather than counters of beans. PwC, one of the “big four” professional-services firms with a giant accounting practice, is collaborating with accounting professors to make entry-level courses less tedious, says Rod Adams, PwC’s chief recruiter in America. It helps that a lot of the grunt work typically taught in first-year classes is now done by computers, leaving the fun creative stuff to humans.

AICPA也希望使这份工作更有吸引力，通过将会计师打造为战略贡献者——或者用AICPA的话来说，从一个“CF-No”（否决项目的首席财务官）变为“CF-Know”。AICPA启动的一个活动宣传了包括自主权、远程工作、旅行和可以在任何地方生活的优点：这正是许多年轻人所向往的。这个名为会计+的创举已经邀请到匹兹堡钢人队的总经理作为代言人。此外，该活动还赞助了抖音的影响者，使这个职业变得有吸引力。但也不要过于性感——至少其中一名抖音博主不得不澄清，她代言的是实际的会计工作，而不是性交易。■

AICPA, too, wants to jazz up the job, by branding the accountant as a strategic contributor—or, in the words of Tom Hood of AICPA, from a “CF-No” (the chief financial officer who vetoes projects) to a “CF-Know”. One campaign led by AICPA touts virtues such as autonomy, remote work, travel, the ability to live anywhere: just the sort of thing that many youngsters say they relish. Accounting+, as the initiative is called, has enlisted the general manager of the Pittsburgh Steelers, an American-football team, to endorse accounting courses. It has also sponsored TikTok influencers to make the career sexy. Not too sexy, though—at least one of the TikTokers had to clarify that she was endorsing actual accounting, not the sex trade. ■

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商业 | 巴托比 (Business | Bartleby)

公司制服的利与弊 (The pros and cons of corporate uniforms)

四分之一的美国劳动力穿着制服。为什么呢？ (A quarter of the American workforce wears one. Why?)

如果你在办公室从事白领工作并且这周有着同样的通勤，那么其他人很难仅通过你的服装来猜到你究竟是从事什么工作。但对于你将会互动的许多人而言，情况并非如此。送你去目的地的公交司机，制作咖啡的咖啡师以及在你进入大楼时问候“早上好”的前台工作人员——他们和许多其他人可能都穿着某种公司制服。盖洛普去年夏天进行的一项美国工人调查发现，尽管大多数员工穿着休闲服装——有些是得体的，有些却完全不是，近四分之一的人穿着制服。

If you work in a white-collar job in an office and make your way there this week, it is unlikely that anyone will be able to guess exactly what you do from your clothes. That is not true for lots of the people you will interact with. The bus driver who gets you to your destination, the barista who makes your coffee and the people on reception who wish you “good morning” as you enter the building—they, and many others, are likely to be wearing some kind of corporate uniform. A poll of American workers conducted last summer by Gallup found that although most employees wear casual clothes—some smart, some really not—almost a quarter donned a uniform.

对于那些要求员工穿制服的雇主来说，存在着几方面支持制服的论点。制服有助于确保外观上的专业水准。它们展现出品牌身份，比如维珍大西洋航空公司机组人员的红外套和联合包裹服务（UPS）送货司机的“布朗斯”制服。它们可能具有有用的职位特定功能：厨师服的外套为双排扣，可防止烫伤，并可翻转以隐藏污渍。它们向顾客发送清晰的信号，告诉顾客应该向哪些人提出问题，避免那些尴尬的“你在这里工作吗？”时刻。

For employers who require them, there are several arguments in favour of uniforms. They help ensure a level of professionalism in appearance. They project a brand identity, from the red coats of Virgin Atlantic crew to the “Browns” uniform of UPS delivery drivers. They may have useful job-specific features: chefs’ jackets are double-breasted to protect against burns and can be reversed to hide stains. They send a clear signal to customers about whom they should approach with questions, avoiding those awkward “do you work here?” moments.

员工穿制服时，顾客会对他们作出好坏不同的评价。蒂尔堡大学的罗伯特·史密斯及其同事进行的一项研究让人们想象在取订披萨时受到糟糕服务的情景。然后他们看到穿制服或非制服的员工的照片；被认为对待他们不好的人被圈起来。参与者更倾向于归咎于公司而不是个体或情况，当一件制服涉及到不好的经历时。如果公司服装让每个员工看起来更像他们的雇主代表，作者建议最好不要给经验不足的员工穿。

Those customers draw different conclusions if staff are in uniform, for good and bad. A study by Robert Smith of Tilburg University and his colleagues asked people to imagine being on the receiving end of poor service when picking up a pizza. They were then shown pictures of uniformed or non-uniformed employees; the person who had notionally treated them badly was circled. Participants were more likely to blame the company than the individual or the circumstances for a bad experience when a uniform was involved. If corporate clothing makes each worker seem more representative of their employers, the authors suggest that it may be a good idea not to give it to inexperienced workers.

制服还会影响员工的心理。现就职于巴斯大学的哈约·亚当和现为哥伦比亚商学院的亚当·加林斯基在2012年创造了“服饰认知”这一术语，用以描述特定服装对人们思维和感觉方式的影响。人们对服饰认知的有效性提出了质疑，但亚当和加林斯基先生以及哥伦比亚商学院的卡尔·布莱恩·霍顿共同进行的一项新的元分析得出结论，该现象是真实的。

Uniforms can also affect the psychology of employees. In 2012 Hajo Adam, now of the University of Bath, and Adam Galinsky, now of Columbia Business School, coined the term “enclothed cognition” to describe the effect that specific clothes have on the way that people think and feel. Questions have been raised over the validity of enclothed cognition, but a new meta-analysis by Messrs Adam and Galinsky, along with Carl Blaine Horton of Columbia Business School, concludes that the phenomenon is real.

在一项研究中，布鲁塞尔自由大学的吉约姆·佩奇和根特大学的艾米丽·卡斯帕让参与者有选择地为其他人施加电击以换取金钱；穿红十字会制服的人表现出比穿普通服装更多的同情心。亚欧工商学院的王雪华及其合作者发现正式服装使人们更可能做出健康的饮食选择。根据普罗维登斯学院的赛义德·门多萨和南缅因大学的伊丽莎白·帕克斯-施塔姆的一篇论文，穿警察制服参与旨在测试反应时间的视频游戏模拟的人比穿自己的衣服更有可能射击手无寸铁的目标。衣装（制）人。

In one study Guillaume Pech of Université Libre de Bruxelles and Emilie Caspar of Ghent University gave participants the option to administer electric shocks to other people in return for money; those dressed up in Red Cross uniforms showed more empathy than those in normal outfits. Xuehua Wang of Asia Europe Business School and her co-authors found that formal clothes made people more likely to make healthy eating choices. According to a paper by Saaid Mendoza of Providence College and Elizabeth Parks-Stamm of University of Southern Maine, people who wore a police uniform during a video-game simulation designed to test reaction times were more likely than those in their own clothes to shoot unarmed targets. Clothes maketh the bang.

制服对员工产生的影响显然会有所不同。一件给予专业身份感的制服——比如医生的白大褂——很可能会比没有这种感觉的制服更有激励性。如果员工对雇主感到自豪，他们会更愿意做企业的广告牌。一些工作服看起来不错，而另一些则是对涤纶的赞颂：你代表的更像是个品牌而不是火灾危险。有些制服很舒适，有些则不是，女性通常会遭殃。直到2023年，英国女警察才获得了适合其解剖结构的防护装备。

The effects that uniforms have on workers will obviously vary. A uniform that confers a sense of professional identity—a doctor’s white coat, say—is likely to be more motivating than one that does not. People will be happier to be a corporate billboard if they feel pride in their employer. Some work clothing looks good and some of it is a paean to polyester: you do not so much represent a brand as a fire hazard. Some uniforms are comfortable and some are not, with women usually getting the worst of it. Only in 2023 were female police officers in Britain issued with body armour made to suit their anatomy.

至于制服的明显反对意见，至少对不穿制服的人而言，是它抑制了个性和自主权。但是那些不必穿正式制服的员工常常会朝着某种服装靠拢。一些编程员似乎有义务穿T恤。衬衫、裤子和芭提冈羽绒背心的组合在纽约金融界被称为“中城制服”。高管们佩戴着独特的企业徽章。名人老板们通过每天穿着相同服装来打造品牌形象。当你上班时或许不需要穿制服，但你可能仍然穿着一套。 ■

The obvious objection to uniforms, at least from people who do not wear them, is that they suppress individuality and autonomy. But employees who do not have to wear a formal uniform often gravitate towards a costume anyway. Some coders seem to be under an unspoken obligation to wear T-shirts. The combination of shirt, trousers and Patagonia gilet is known as the “midtown uniform” for finance types in New York. Executives wear cultlike corporate lapel pins. Celebrity bosses build brands by wearing the same outfit day after day. You may not be required to don a uniform when you head off to work. You may nonetheless be wearing one. ■

*查阅更多Bartleby的管理和工作专栏文章：事业成功的秘诀可能隐藏在侧面（3月21日）每个地方都变得更难真正完成工作 (3月13日)企业如何传递隐性知识？（3月7日）*

Read more from Bartleby, our columnist on management and work:The secret to career success may well be off to the side (Mar 21st)Every location has got worse for getting actual work done (Mar 13th)How can firms pass on tacit knowledge? (Mar 7th)

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国际 | 印度人和世界 (International | Indians and the world)

纳伦德拉•莫迪的秘密武器：印度侨民 (Narendra Modi’s secret weapon: India’s diaspora)

移民在国内帮助总理竞选，同时在国外游说支持本国。 (Migrants help campaign for the prime minister at home and lobby for the country abroad)

在本月早些时候的伦敦西北部，一个阴沉的早晨，一群热情洋溢的人们聚集在社区中心外，高举印度国旗，还有另一面印有印度执政党人民党（Bharatiya Janata Party）标志莲花的旗帜。一些人戴着藏红色围巾，这种颜色与印度教有关。在该地区进行汽车游行后，他们聚集在一座印度寺庙外。一位英国保守党议员向人群演讲，赞扬了纳伦德拉·莫迪政府。这次聚会是由人民党海外支持者组织的，这一党派的海外分支，未能引起当地媒体的太多关注。但是这场聚会的视频很快出现在许多印度媒体的网站上。

ON A GREY morning in north-west London earlier this month an enthusiastic group gathered outside a community centre to fly the Indian flag—plus another one featuring the lotus flower, symbol of India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Some wore saffron scarves, a colour associated with Hinduism. After staging a car rally through the neighbourhood, they reconvened outside a Hindu temple. A British Conservative MP addressed the crowd, praising the government of Narendra Modi. The gathering, organised by the Overseas Friends of the BJP, the party’s diaspora arm, got little attention in the local media. But footage of it soon appeared on the websites of many Indian outlets.

这次游行只是印度各政党海外分支组织的众多类似活动之一，因为即将在4月19日开始的印度大选即将到来。印度庞大的海外侨民群体正变得越来越强大，成为在国内外动员支持的强大力量。印度政客争取这些侨民的财政和竞选支持。与印度本土情况一样，人民党比其竞争对手更加有组织，更加成功。如果莫迪先生赢得了第三个任期，这看起来是有可能的，他的成功部分要归功于海外侨民。

The rally was just one of countless such events run by the overseas branches of India’s parties, as the country’s general election that starts on April 19th beckons. India’s huge diaspora is an increasingly powerful force for mobilising support at home and abroad. Indian politicians court it for its financial and campaigning punch. As in India itself, the BJP has been more systematic and successful than its rivals. If Mr Modi wins a third term, as seems likely, he can partly thank the diaspora.

印度海外侨民长期以来在国内政治中起着与众不同的作用，这一点可以追溯到印度独立斗争。许多反殖民主义运动的领导人，包括贾瓦哈拉尔·尼赫鲁和莫汉达斯·甘地，都在英国求学多年。作为律师受过训练的他们利用吸收到的思想回国争取自由。一些印度独立后最著名的总理，包括英迪拉·甘地和曼莫汉·辛格，也在国外度过了很长一段时间。

Read more of our coverage of the Indian election

从那时起，印度海外侨民的规模和影响力不断增长。据联合国统计，大约有1800万保留印度国籍的印度人居住在国外。这使他们成为世界上最大的侨民群体，其次是墨西哥人（1120万）和俄罗斯人（1080万）。根据印度政府的估计，如果包括放弃印度护照的人口，这一数字可能超过3200万。

Indians abroad have long played a disproportionate role in politics at home, going back to India’s fight for independence. Many of the anti-colonial movement’s leading lights, including Jawaharlal Nehru and Mohandas Gandhi, spent years studying in Britain. Trained as lawyers, they used the ideas they had absorbed to argue for freedom back home. Some of the most notable post-independence prime ministers, including Indira Gandhi and Manmohan Singh, also spent long periods abroad.

大多数居住在海外的印度人都取得了很大成功。据世界银行估计，2023年他们向国内寄回了近1250亿美元的汇款，相当于印度国内生产总值的3.4%左右。在美国，80%的印度裔公民拥有大学学位。在那里，印度家庭的收入中位数为15万美元，是美国国家平均水平的两倍。印度裔人士领导着谷歌、世界银行和英国。

Since then, India’s diaspora has grown in size and influence. Some 18m Indians who retain their nationality live abroad, according to the UN. That makes them the largest diaspora in the world, followed well behind by Mexicans (11.2m) and Russians (10.8m). If those who have relinquished their Indian passports are included, the number may exceed 32m, according to the Indian government’s estimates.

虽然在海湾国家，仍然有很多低技能或半技能的印度工人从事着当地本地人不愿或无法从事的琐碎工作，但即使在那里，领域专业人士在印度人群中所占比例正在增长。目前已接近30%。特别是在以英语为母语的国家，如今的印度侨民比之前的移民浪潮更有资金和影响力，而这些移民往往起步时贫困潦倒。

Most Indians abroad have been highly successful. In 2023 they sent home nearly $125bn in remittances, equivalent to around 3.4% of India’s GDP, according to World Bank estimates. In America 80% of citizens of Indian origin have college degrees. The median Indian household income there is $150,000, twice America’s national average. People of Indian descent lead Google, the World Bank—and Britain.

这对于他们在印度政治中的角色意味着什么？大多数居住在印度以外的印度人在印度大选中没有选票，因为他们只能亲自在国内选区投票。对于大多数人来说，时间和金钱成本太高。据印度选举委员会称，只有12万多人注册参加今年的选举，预计只会有一小部分人实际投票。

There are still plenty of low- or semi-skilled Indian workers filling menial jobs the host countries’ natives will not or cannot do, especially in the Gulf states. Yet even there the share of white-collar professionals as a proportion of Indians is growing. It now approaches 30%. Especially in English-speaking countries, today’s Indian diaspora has more cash and clout than earlier waves of migrants, who often started out dirt-poor.

在拥有近10亿登记选民的国家中，分散在数百个选区的1800万潜在选票不太可能产生影响。此外，许多海外侨民对莫迪的魅力仍然持保留态度。美国国际和平协会在2020年对印度裔美国人进行的一项调查发现，48%的人赞成莫迪，31%不赞成，22%强烈不赞成。实际上，与印度人相比，海外侨民对他的热情要低得多，据说78%的印度人赞成他。一个原因可能是，他们阅读到比家乡亲戚更广泛的新闻，而家乡的多数媒体都是不遗余力地支持人民党。此外，越来越多的移民来自南印度，而那里莫迪并不那么受欢迎。

What does this mean for their role in Indian politics? Most Indians who live outside India do not vote in Indian elections, as they can vote only in person in their constituencies back home. That costs too much for most of them in time and money. Only 120,000-odd are registered for this year’s poll, according to India’s election commission, and only a fraction of that modest number are expected to turn up.

至少在英国，最近为工作或教育而移民的人往往在政治上较少激进，Bridge India的负责人普拉提克·达塔尼表示。对于许多侨民来说，印度政治可能并非他们的首要关注点，他们更关心工作、教育和日常生活。

In a country with nearly 1bn registered voters, 18m potential votes dispersed across hundreds of electoral districts would be unlikely to make a difference. Besides, plenty of diaspora Indians remain immune to Mr Modi’s charms. A survey of Indian-Americans in 2020 by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, an American think-tank, found that while 48% approved of Mr Modi, 31% disapproved and 22% strongly so. Indeed, the diaspora is much less enthusiastic than Indians in India, 78% of whom are said to approve of him. One reason may be that they read a wider variety of news than their relatives at home, where most media are relentlessly pro-BJP. Moreover, an increasing number of migrants are from south India, where Mr Modi is not so popular.

在政治方面，海外侨民的真正影响在于资金、竞选和传播印度的影响力。随着海外印度人在其所在社会中变得更加突出，许多人开始对新的国家政治和国内政治产生更多兴趣。因此，无论是印度政党还是外国政党都更加热切地争取他们的支持。

At least in Britain, those who have recently migrated for work or education tend to be less politically strident, says Pratik Dattani, who runs Bridge India, a non-partisan diaspora outfit in Britain. For many in the diaspora, Indian politics may not be their main concern, ranking behind worries about jobs, education and daily life.

莫迪和他的人民党对此非常清楚。他们在2014年的选举宣言中将海外侨民称为“表达全球国家利益的巨大储备”，并表示将“利用其加强印度品牌”。随后的一年，该党的总书记表示，人民党视侨民为印度在国外的声音，“就像犹太社区在美国维护以色列利益的方式”。

The real impact of the diaspora in politics is in funding, campaigning and spreading India’s influence. As overseas Indians have become more prominent in their host societies, many have begun to take more of an interest in politics both in their new countries and back home. So political parties, Indian and foreign, are wooing them more keenly.

许多海外印度人已准备好应对这一挑战。美国人民党海外支持者计划派遣3000名印度裔美国人活动人士回到印度张贴海报并拉票。他们表示将致电250万印度人，说服他们投票给莫迪。代表反对党国大党的印度海外国会计划也有类似的计划，尽管其组织者并未明确数字。印度不透明的选举金融体系使得很难确切衡量海外侨民捐赠了多少资金；政党很少被要求透露捐款来源。但捐款必然不少。

Mr Modi and his BJP are acutely aware of this. Their election manifesto in 2014 called the diaspora “a vast reservoir to articulate the national interests and affairs globally” that would be “harnessed for strengthening Brand India”. The next year the party’s general secretary said the BJP saw the diaspora as India’s voice abroad, “the way the Jewish community looks out for Israel’s interests in the United States”.

长期以来，侨民团体一直将政治与支持特定社区联系在一起。但自莫迪上台以来，他们变得更加政治化，并倾向于支持人民党。孩子们的玩伴活动或社区祈祷会更有可能带有橙色色调。成员们在英国游说议员或在美国国会游说，以支持莫迪。

Many Indians abroad have risen to the task. The Overseas Friends of the BJP in America plans to send 3,000 Indian-American activists back to India to put up posters and canvass voters. They say they will make 2.5m calls to people in India to persuade them to vote for Mr Modi. The Indian Overseas Congress, the equivalent outfit representing the opposition Congress party, has similar plans, though its organisers are vague about numbers. India’s opaque electoral-finance system makes it tricky to gauge exactly how much money the diaspora contributes; parties are rarely required to disclose the source of donations. But it is bound to be a lot.

然而，大多数海外侨民的动员活动发生在宿主国的政治之外。大部分信息传递在社交媒体上，通常在WhatsApp群中。成员们为莫迪最新的基础设施建设或外交成功欢呼，同时也宣扬人民党更阴暗的观点，比如“爱情圣战”，这是一个阴谋论，声称穆斯林男子系统地诱使印度教女性，以便将她们改信伊斯兰教。

Diaspora groups have long mixed politics with support for particular communities. But they have become more political and pro-BJP since Mr Modi took over. Play-dates for children or community prayer meetings are likelier to have a saffron tint. Members lobby MPs in Britain or members of Congress in America to back Mr Modi.

政府成功争取侨民支持的一个原因是，人民党在海外的活动与其国内的选举机器一样高效。外交旅行的内阁部长们总是重视与侨民团体会面，往往是为了筹集资金。在英国，有数百个亲近人民党的团体活跃。这种侨民动员也在美国兴起。

Yet most mobilisation of the diaspora happens away from the host countries’ politics. Much of the messaging is on social media, usually in WhatsApp groups. Members hail Mr Modi’s latest infrastructure drive or foreign-policy success. They also promote the BJP’s darker notions, such as “love jihad”, a conspiracy theory that Muslim men are systematically seducing Hindu women in order to convert them.

（插图：2019年在休斯顿举行的“你好，莫迪”活动中的印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪的支持者）

One reason for the government’s success in courting the diaspora is that the BJP’s activities abroad are as efficient as its electoral machine at home. Cabinet ministers on foreign trips make a point of meeting diaspora groups, often to raise cash. Hundreds of groups close to the BJP are active in Britain. Such diaspora mobilisation has also picked up in America.

A supporter of India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the Howdy Modi event in Houston in 2019

在他当选后不久，莫迪先生在纽约麦迪逊广场花园为1.8万名粉丝举行了一场集会。此前，他因被指控参与2002年本土古吉拉特邦致命的族群暴力而被美国禁止入境（他被全部指控都洗清）。他前往许多印度人口众多的国家，也包括了类似的活动，最近在阿布扎比。去年，他在悉尼一场侨民集会上赢得了热情洋溢的欢呼（参见图片）。

Soon after his election Mr Modi starred at a rally for 18,000 fans in New York’s Madison Square Garden. He had previously been barred from America for his alleged part in deadly communal violence in his home state of Gujarat in 2002 (he was cleared of all charges). Many of his trips to countries with many Indians include such events, most recently in Abu Dhabi. Last year he wowed a diaspora crowd in Sydney (pictured).

北伦敦大学的爱德华·安德森表示，这些活动有两个目的，他是一本关于侨民中印度教民族主义的最新书的作者。这些活动有助于将他与一个他珍视的群体联系起来，这个群体在社会、文化和经济方面都很有影响力。在国外人群为他欢呼的照片，也会加强他在国内的形象作为备受尊崇的政治家。

These events serve two purposes, says Edward Anderson of Northumbria University, author of a recent book on Hindu nationalism in the diaspora. They help tie him to a group he values for its social, cultural and economic weight. And the pictures of crowds cheering him abroad shine his image back home as a feted statesman.

莫迪强调印度崛起的全球地位，这与许多海外印度人产生共鸣，达塔尼说。“人们感到印度现在无处不在，这就是这位大人物的功劳，”他说。在阿布扎比，莫迪还为一座巨大的印度寺庙举行了揭幕仪式，他的粉丝们为他疯狂欢呼。“在他执政的过去十年里，印度真的有了进步，”62岁的销售主管甘尼什·薩尔马说。“他只为这个国家服务，而不是为自己，我们与世界上几乎所有其他国家的关系现在都很好。”

Mr Modi’s emphasis on India’s rising global stature resonates with many overseas Indians, says Mr Dattani. “There is a sense that India is now everywhere and this guy did it,” he says. In Abu Dhabi, where Mr Modi also inaugurated a huge Hindu temple, he was feverishly acclaimed by his fans. “For the past ten years under his rule India has really evolved,” says Ganesh Sarma, a sales executive aged 62. “He works only for the country, not for himself, and our relationship with almost the entire rest of the world is fabulous now.”

与此相比，国大党的努力一落千丈。该党的领袖拉胡尔·甘地也曾环游世界，争取侨民的支持。他的主要关注点是强调社会问题和莫迪日益独裁的手段。达塔尼表示，这在侨民中有长期批评家的共鸣，但却令大多数海外印度人感到厌恶，他们希望对自己的国家有一个良好的印象。2023年的一项民意调查显示，美国的印度人，无论是公民还是移民，对自己的祖国普遍持非常积极的态度。人民党曾利用甘地的出访来抨击他，认为他向外国人指责他的国家是不忠诚的。

Efforts by Congress, by contrast, have fallen flat. Rahul Gandhi, the party’s figurehead, also travels the world to lobby the diaspora. His main concern has been to highlight social problems and Mr Modi’s increasingly authoritarian methods. That resonates with long-standing critics in the diaspora, but turns off most Indians abroad who want to think well of their country, says Mr Dattani. In 2023 Pew, a pollster, found that Indians in America, both citizens and migrants, had overwhelmingly favourable views of their home country. The BJP has used Mr Gandhi’s foreign visits to paint him as disloyal for talking down his country to foreigners.

政府还针对了更不起眼的印度人，主要是持有“印度海外公民”特殊身份的学者和对人民党持敌对态度的记者。许多人拥有海外印度公民的特殊身份，该身份授予那些放弃印度公民身份和与印度公民结婚的外国人权利（例如在印度居住和工作的能力）。（印度不允许双重国籍。）人民党通过吊销那些他们认为不忠诚的人的海外印度公民身份来使用这一身份。

The government has also targeted less prominent Indians, chiefly academics and journalists hostile to the BJP. Many hold a special status called “Overseas Citizen of India” that grants rights (such as the ability to live and work in India) to people who have dropped their Indian citizenship and to foreigners married to Indian citizens. (India does not allow dual citizenship.) The BJP weaponises this status by revoking it for those it deems unpatriotic.

无论如何，莫迪和他的人民党在国内外应对敌手的能力都非常高超。而印度不断增长的侨民群体中，很多人都渴望跟随这支看似不可阻挡的队伍。

In any event, Mr Modi and his BJP are adept, at home and abroad, at dealing with their foes. And much of India’s burgeoning diaspora is keen to ride along on a seemingly unstoppable bandwagon. ■

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金融和经济 | 捉迷藏 (Finance and economics | Hide and seek)

中国的银行存在不良贷款问题 (China’s banks have a bad-debt problem)

正变得越来越明显。 (As is becoming increasingly obvious)

九江银行是来自中国南方一个小河镇的中级银行，在3月19日传来了一则坏消息。在一次罕见的披露中，该银行告诉投资者，由于不良贷款表现不佳，2023年的利润可能会下降30%。这种信息通常是中国银行不愿透露的。事实上，它们通常极力避免这样做。

Bank of Jiujiang, a mid-tier lender from a southern Chinese river town, imparted some bad news on March 19th. In a rare disclosure, it told investors profits for 2023 might fall by 30%, because of poorly performing loans. This is just the sort of information Chinese banks are normally reluctant to reveal. Indeed, they often go to great lengths to avoid doing so.

通常，欺骗行为的运作方式如下: 银行向资产管理公司（AMC）放贷，而后者则购买其有毒贷款。双方签订的合同中包括的条款使资产管理公司可以避免购买的不良贷款的信用风险。保密条款使这些安排不被披露，有时甚至不会向法庭透露。

Typically, the subterfuge works as follows: the bank lends to an asset-management company (AMC) that in return purchases its toxic loans. The contracts drawn up between the two parties include stipulations that enable the AMC to avoid the credit risks of the bad loans they are buying. Confidentiality clauses keep these arrangements from being disclosed, sometimes even to courts.

对监管机构来说，参与此类交易的银行似乎在解决其不良贷款问题；实际上，它们正在掩盖问题。新加坡国立大学商学院的本·查伦翁和阮天悦，以及中国人民大学的孟苗指出，随着时间推移，这些有问题的贷款不断积累。对于全国数百家银行而言，这些贷款构成了一颗定时炸弹。

To regulators it may seem as if banks involved in such transactions are solving their bad-debt problems; in reality, they are concealing them. As Ben Charoenwong and Ruan Tianyue of the National University of Singapore Business School, and Meng Miao of Renmin University, have noted, over time these troubled loans accumulate. For hundreds of banks across the country, they represent a ticking bomb.

当局现在正开始意识到这一点。他们已经对金融机构因不当处理债务而处以一连串的处罚。新成立的国家金融监管局（NAFR）已经对20多家金融机构做出处罚。去年12月，一家商业银行中信银行因不善处理不良债务被罚款2.2亿元人民币（3000万美元），创下纪录。中国农业银行，一个大型国有银行，因类似过错收到2700万元罚款。

The authorities are now catching on. They have hit financial institutions with a flurry of penalties for improper handling of debts. The National Administration of Financial Regulation (NAFR), a new banking regulator, has handed out more than 20 punishments. In December Citic Bank, a commercial lender, was fined 220m yuan ($30m) for mismanaging bad debt, a record amount. Agricultural Bank of China, a large state lender, received a 27m yuan fine for similar transgressions.

监管加强部分归功于新监管机构加强的监督。成立于去年的NAFR比前任机构具有更强的执法能力。银行监管曾由几个机构共同负责，导致腐败、监管失误，并在2019年导致几家银行破产。NAFR现在似乎更加认真地对待不良贷款的掩盖。

Increased surveillance can in part be attributed to the new watchdog’s increased vigilance. Established last year, the NAFR has stronger enforcement capabilities than its predecessors. Supervision of banks had been divided among several agencies, allowing corruption and producing lapses in oversight, which contributed to the collapse of several banks, starting in 2019. The NAFR now seems to be taking the concealment of bad debts more seriously.

但一些进展始于更早。十年前，银行没有将的真正问题规模公之于众，而是将其纳入资产的其他类别，向监管机构表示贷款仍有可能会被偿还（实际上，很多公司已经破产了）。2017年，NAFR的前身之一开始要求银行更加诚实。结果是不良贷款的大量涌现。例如，九江银行的不良贷款在2015年至去年年底之间增加了七倍。

But some of the progress began earlier. A decade ago, instead of declaring the true size of their problems by identifying debts as “non-performing loans”, banks shoved them into other categories of assets, signalling to regulators that there remained a good chance borrowers would repay (in fact, many of the companies had gone bankrupt). In 2017 one of the NAFR’s predecessors began leaning on lenders to be more truthful. The result has been an outpouring of undesirable loans. Bank of Jiujiang’s bad loans, for instance, increased seven-fold between 2015 and late last year.

这种活动激增有多可信？识别和消化不良贷款很困难。发现这种贷款会削弱金融机构的资产负债表，因为它们被迫使用资金为未来的不良贷款提前计提，这反过来使政府更难以将资金支持引导到追求其他政策目标的优选产业。一些不良贷款将会合法发生，当地政府资本注入银行，注入资金以使其得以继续清理不良贷款。

How much of this surge in activity can be trusted? Recognising and digesting bad debts is difficult. Discovering such lending weakens financial institutions’ balance-sheets since they are forced to use capital to provision for future bad debts, which in turn makes it harder for the government to direct financial support to favoured industries in pursuit of other policy goals. Some revelations will happen legitimately as local governments recapitalise banks, pumping in funds to enable them to continue to write off bad debts.

而其他的则通过资产管理公司进行，因此只有在某些情况下才是合法的。中国几十年前建立了四家中央控制的AMC来清理不良债务。它们如今陷入困境。其中一家在2021年需要66亿美元的纾困。其他几家资金状况不佳，因此购买的不良债务越来越少，尽管银行仍在大量产生。2016年，四家国有AMC购买了将近1万亿元人民币的大约1.5万亿元总的不良贷款。到2022年，他们的购买已经减少到不足5000亿元人民币，尽管不良贷款上升至近3万亿元人民币。

Others will happen via AMCs, and thus will only sometimes be legitimate. China created four centrally controlled AMCs decades ago to hoover up bad debts. They are now struggling. One needed a $6.6bn bail-out in 2021. Others are poorly capitalised and as a result buying fewer and fewer bad debts, even as banks crank out more. In 2016 the four state AMCs bought nearly 1trn yuan of about 1.5trn yuan in total non-performing loans. By 2022 their purchases came to less than 500bn yuan, despite bad debts rising to almost 3trn yuan.

今年1月底，国家媒体报道称，其中三家AMC将被并入中国的主权财富基金。它们如今本身成了陷入困境的金融机构，几乎无法完成它们创立时旨在清理债务的工作。这对九江银行来说是坏消息。对其他几百家类似银行也是如此。 ■

In late January state media reported that three of them would be merged with China’s sovereign wealth fund. They have become distressed financial institutions in their own right and can hardly perform the debt clean-up work for which they were created. That is bad news for Bank of Jiujiang. It is also bad news for hundreds of other similar lenders. ■

回到目录

金融与经济 | 英联邦国家的诅咒 (Finance and economics | Curse of the Anglosphere)

哪个国家将是最后一个摆脱通胀的？ (Which country will be last to escape inflation?)

全球斗争中的新分界线 (A new dividing line in the global fight)

在一月份，富裕国家的物价同比上涨了5.7%，但与2022年底的10.7%的高点相比有所下降。然而，这一数据掩盖了广泛的差异。一些国家已经击败了通货膨胀魔鬼，而其他一些国家仍在生死搏斗。

In January prices across the rich world rose by 5.7% year on year, down from a peak in late 2022 of 10.7%. This conceals wide variation, however. Some countries have slain the inflation beast. Others are still in the fight of their lives.

为了了解不同”战场”的情况，我们更新了对十个富裕国家的“通货膨胀防线”指标。该指标包括五个指标：核心通货膨胀、单位劳动力成本、“通货膨胀分散度”、通货膨胀预期和谷歌搜索行为。我们对每个指标的每个国家进行排名，然后将排名结合在一起，形成一个综合得分。

To get a view of the various battlefields, we have updated our measure of “inflation entrenchment” for ten rich countries. The measure comprises five indicators: core inflation, unit labour costs, “inflation dispersion”, inflation expectations and Google-search behaviour. We rank each country on each indicator, then combine the rankings in order to form an overall score.

与我们上一次进行此项研究的11月相比，结果有所改善。结果还显示了一个语言分野。欧盟和亚洲国家表现良好；在英语系国家，通货膨胀的消退时间更长。澳大利亚在排名中名列前茅。英国和加拿大紧随其后。美国的表现也有所改喀，但即使在那里，通货膨胀依然根深蒂固。

The results are better than in November, when we last conducted the exercise. They also reveal a linguistic divide. Countries in the eu and Asia perform well; in the English-speaking world, inflation is taking longer to fade. Australia tops the ranking. Britain and Canada are not far behind. America is doing better, but even there inflation remains entrenched.

一些因素或许可以解释这些差异。其中之一是疫情期间的财政刺激，英语系国家比其他地区的财政刺激大40%。这种对需求的提振仍然反映在“核心”通货膨胀数据中，该数据剔除了能源等项目，显示了潜在的通货膨胀压力。英国的核心通货膨胀接近5%。

A few factors may explain the differences. One is fiscal stimulus during covid-19, which was 40% larger in the Anglosphere than elsewhere. The boost to demand is still visible in “core” inflation data, which strips out items such as energy, and indicates underlying inflationary pressure. British core inflation is close to 5%.

我们的“通货膨胀分散度”指标提供了类似的线索。该指标衡量了消费品价格中同比上涨超过2%的比例。在这一指标中，澳大利亚名列前茅。相比之下，大多数日本价格的同比涨幅都不到2%。

Our measure of “inflation dispersion” provides similar clues. This measures the share of consumer prices that are rising by more than 2% year on year. Australia tops the rankings here. By contrast, most Japanese prices are rising by less than 2%.

移民也可能有助于解释这种分歧。富裕世界经历了一次移民热潮，其中很大一部分新移民前往英语系国家。去年，澳大利亚、英国和加拿大创下了净移民纪录。

Immigration could also help explain the divide. The rich world has experienced an immigration boom, with a large share of the new arrivals going to English-speaking countries. Last year Australia, Britain and Canada broke net-migration records.

人口增长的大幅上升支持了需求。在过去一年中，在英语国家租房费用上涨了8%，而在其他地区则上涨了5%。对劳动力市场的影响则不太明显。美国的单位劳动力成本，即企业支付给工人生产单位产品所需的成本，并未上涨。但加拿大的单位劳动力成本则在强劲增长。

The large rise in population has supported demand. In the past year the cost of renting a flat in the Anglosphere has risen by 8%, compared with 5% elsewhere. The effects on labour markets are less clear. America’s unit labour costs, which measure how much firms pay workers to produce a unit of output, are not rising. But Canada’s are growing strongly.

历史也可能在解释英语系国家根深蒂固的通货膨胀中发挥作用。在2010年代，南欧和大部分富裕亚洲国家的物价上涨很少。而英语系国家的通货膨胀更为严重。由于这些不同的经历，人们对未来通货膨胀的当前信念也可能有所不同。

History may also play a role in explaining the Anglosphere’s entrenched inflation. During the 2010s southern Europe and much of rich Asia saw few price rises. Inflation in the Anglosphere was firmer. Owing to these different experiences, people’s current beliefs about future inflation may also differ.

美国传出的数据令人担忧。公众认为未来12个月价格将上涨5.3%，超过我们排名中的其他任何一个国家。美国人还经常在谷歌上搜索与通货膨胀相关的主题，这表明生活成本仍在他们的头脑中。在英语系国家，持续高通货膨胀甚至第二波价格上涨的威胁并没有消失。 ■

Data coming out of America are worrying. The public believes prices will rise by 5.3% over the next 12 months, more than in any other country in our ranking. Americans also often search on Google for inflation-related topics, suggesting that the cost of living is still on their minds. Across the Anglosphere the threat of continued high inflation—or even a second wave of price rises—has not gone away. ■

回到目录

金融与经济 | 自由交易 (Finance and economics | Free exchange)

印度如何成为亚洲虎 (How India could become an Asian tiger)

世界上最严格的官僚体系正在努力实现 (The world’s most selective bureaucracy is struggling to make it happen)

印度是否正在实现其潜力？截至2023年第三季度，该国以惊人的8.4%的速度增长。在接下来的半个世纪里，预计年增长率将达到6.5%，这将使其成为全球增长最快的大型经济体。目前为止，一切看起来不错。批评者指出的问题在于，中国、日本和韩国在其快速增长时期每年扩张10%左右。导致印度表现不佳的部分原因是全球化放缓。但加州大学圣地亚哥分校的卡迪克·姆拉利德哈兰所著名为《加速印度的发展》的新书认为，更快发展的关键障碍是“state capacity”（国家能力）的缺乏。

Is India achieving its potential? In the year to the third quarter of 2023, the country grew at a blistering rate of 8.4%. Over the next half-decade it is expected to expand at 6.5% a year, which would make it the world’s fastest-growing big economy. So far, so good. The problem, as critics point out, is that China, Japan and South Korea all expanded at 10% or so a year during their periods of rapid growth. Part of the reason for India’s less impressive figures is a slowdown in globalisation. But a new book by Karthik Muralidharan of the University of California, San Diego, called “Accelerating India’s Development”, argues that the crucial barrier to faster development is a lack of “state capacity”.

姆拉利德哈兰先生将这一概念描述为政府的“效能”。将资金投入缺乏能力的国家就像在行将崩溃的汽车旁加油：它无法让你走得很远。目前，印度政府在“使命模式”下成功，在实现明确定义的目标时取得了成功。四月份，印度将举行史上规模最大的民主选举，选民会选择一位总理。与此同时，印度在教育和卫生等日常地方管理方面却面临困难。五分之三农村五年级学生无法读懂二年级水平的书，过去五年失败率只有恶化。

Mr Muralidharan describes this concept as the “effectiveness” of government. Throwing money at a state lacking capacity is like adding fuel to a car near a breakdown: it won’t get you very far. Currently, the Indian state succeeds when on “mission mode”, achieving clearly defined goals. In April it should pull off the largest democratic exercise in history, as voters pick a prime minister. At the same time, it struggles with mundane, everyday aspects of governance, such as education and health. Three in five rural children in the fifth year of school cannot read at a second-year level—and in the past five years the failure rate has only worsened.

问题的一部分是印度民主的过早成熟。1950年，当该国大部分地区尚未富裕时，普选普及。市民要求国家在其拥有足够资金或能力之前满足他们的基本需求。例如，印度在上世纪60年代启动了粮食安全计划，当时人均富裕度是美国上世纪30年代启动其粮食计划时的十五分之一。这奠定了一个模式：印度国家做了很多事情，但有很少做好。

Part of the issue is the precociousness of Indian democracy. The franchise became universal in 1950, when the country was mostly impoverished. Citizens demanded that the state met their basic needs well before it had the money or capacity to do so. India launched its food-security programme in the 1960s, for instance, when it was a fifteenth as rich per person as America was when it launched its own such programme in the 1930s. This set a pattern: the Indian state does a lot, but little well.

在他的800页的著作中，姆拉利德哈兰先生提出了一些解决方案。这本书充斥着关于印度制度运行和改进的细节。其中三个想法引人注目。它们涉及国家应如何管理人员，使用技术和改善其联邦制度。而且它们对其他政府也具有启示。

In his 800-page tome, Mr Muralidharan lays out fixes. The book is crammed with details about how the Indian system works and could be improved. Three ideas stand out. They concern how the state should manage people, use technology and improve its federal system. And they hold lessons for other governments.

自2002年以来，当时还是研究生的姆拉利德哈兰一直在进行缺勤率调查。事实证明，教师跳课的频率也许与学生一样频繁：他们有20-30%的缺勤率。问题不在于工资。2017年，耶鲁大学的罗希尼·潘德的一项研究发现，在33个国家中，印度向公共部门员工提供的工资溢价排名第二。问题似乎是治理。学校的监督职位的空缺率非常高，介于20-40%之间。姆拉利德哈兰先生计算得出，填补这些职位的成本效益将是雇佣更多教师的十倍。

Since 2002, when Mr Muralidharan was a graduate student, he has been conducting surveys on absentee rates. It turns out that teachers skip school perhaps as often as pupils: they are absent 20-30% of the time. The problem is not pay. In 2017 a study by Rohini Pande of Yale University found that across 33 countries, India offered the second-highest wage premium to public-sector employees. Rather, the problem appears to be governance. School supervisory positions have ultra-high vacancy rates of 20-40%. Mr Muralidharan calculates that filling such roles would be ten times more cost-effective than hiring more teachers.

这些问题反映了对公务员管理一种奇怪的方法。每年约有100万印度人申请约1000个岗位，使其成为历史上最具选择性的官僚机构之一。然而，印度每1000人只有16名公共雇员，是世界上比例最低的国家之一。印度官员还会在各个政府层级的职位之间跳来跳去，平均每15个月换一个职位。正如一位最近的退休者所指出的那样，这意味着他们在任何一个领域都没有足够的时间培养适当的专业知识。因此，问题无法得到解决。

Such problems reflect a strange approach to civil-service management. About 1m Indians apply each year for about 1,000 slots, making it one of the most selective bureaucracies in history. Yet India has just 16 public employees per 1,000 people, one of the lowest ratios in the world. Indian officials also hop from position to position across various different tiers of government, moving every 15 months on average. As a recent retiree notes, this means that they have far too little time to develop proper expertise in any one area. Therefore problems go unresolved.

更好的数据将有所帮助。不应该通过学术调查才能确定教师缺勤率。有关教育结果的官方数据比独立机构收集的数据呈现出更加乐观的画面。学校和低层官僚有舞弊的刺激。因此，姆拉利德哈兰建议进行数字数据收集、审计和加强问责。

Better data would help. It should not take an academic survey to ascertain rates of teacher absenteeism. Official numbers on educational outcomes paint a far rosier picture than those collected by independent organisations. Schools and low-level bureaucrats have incentives to cheat. As such, Mr Muralidharan suggests digital data collection, audits and stiffer accountability.

该书中贯穿始终的主题是要关注印度的联邦结构。该国有28个极其多样化的邦，其中有15个人口规模足够大，能够位居全球人口十分之一之列。在历史上，印度政治家们过度依赖腐败，公司贿赂领导人以换取恩惠，然后领导人用这笔钱资助昂贵的竞选活动，实际上是在贿赂选民。在一些邦，这一循环开始瓦解。在政治家承诺做成事情的竞选活动正是为什么莫迪，印度总理，在管理古吉拉特邦时声名鹊起。

A running theme throughout the book is the need to pay attention to India’s federal structure. The country has 28 hugely diverse states, 15 of which are big enough to be in the top fifth of the world’s countries by population. Historically, Indian politicians have fallen prey to cycles of corruption in which companies bribe leaders in exchange for favours, with leaders then using the money to fund expensive campaigns that involve, in effect, bribing voters. In some states, this cycle is starting to break down. Campaigns promising to get stuff done are precisely what propelled Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, to fame when he ran the state of Gujarat.

然而，“第三层”的政府，由村庄、城镇和城市组成，进展并不那么令人印象深刻。中国领导人邓小平（1978年至1989年任职）引入了奖励地方官员经济表现的改革。印度可能需要类似的措施，尤其是如果各邦给予地方当局更多资源和权力。在姆拉利德哈兰研究的18个相似国家中，印度在财政事务方面的权力下放是最少的。只有3%的州支出发生在地方一级，而在中国这一比例为51%。2000年，印度的三个邦——比哈尔、中央邦和北方邦——都进行了分裂。安得拉邦也在2014年分裂。这四次分裂都导致了经济增长加快。

Progress in the “third tier” of government, which is made up of villages, towns and cities, has been less impressive, however. Deng Xiaoping, China’s leader from 1978 to 1989, introduced reforms that rewarded local officials for their economic performance. India could use something similar, especially if states granted their local authorities more resources and power. Of the 18 similar countries looked at by Mr Muralidharan, India was the least decentralised when it came to fiscal affairs. Just 3% of state spending happens at a local level, compared with 51% in China. In 2000 three Indian states—Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh—were split in two. So was Andhra Pradesh in 2014. All four splits have led to faster economic growth.

姆拉利德哈兰的书中还有许多其他内容。但是人员、数据和联邦制度的变革将共同构成一个改革方案的开端，这将对印度的治理产生奇迹，从而促进其增长。事实上，印度各城市和邦之间表现的差异巨大说明了潜在好处。例如，卡纳塔克邦，一个较大且管理较好的邦，人均富裕度是印度最贫穷邦比哈尔邦的六倍之多，使印度成为全球最不平等的国家之一。内部迁移相对罕见，这意味着为了加快收入增长，贫困邦将不得不好好整顿自己。姆拉利德哈兰所概述的变革难以实施，但并非不可能。如果有些邦迈出这一步，他们或许会激励其他邦效仿。 ■

There is much else in Mr Muralidharan’s book. But changes to personnel, data and federalism would together represent the beginnings of a reform package that could do wonders for India’s governance, and therefore its growth. Indeed, the sheer variation in performance across India’s cities and states demonstrates the potential benefits. Karnataka, a large and reasonably well-run state, is six times richer per person than Bihar, the country’s poorest state—making India one of the world’s most geographically unequal countries. Internal migration is relatively rare, which means that for incomes to grow faster, poor states will have to get their act together. The changes outlined by Mr Muralidharan will be tough to enact, but not impossible. And if some states make the leap, they may inspire others to follow their example. ■

请阅读来自我们的专栏：“自由交流”(Free exchange)的更多内容*：【为什么《奇迹经济学》未能改变经济学】(https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/03/21/why-freakonomics-failed-to-transform-economics)（3月21日）* 【为什么那些“我不要在我附近”人群会增加碳排放量】(https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/article88705-prod.ece)（3月14日）* 【一位经济学家对奢侈手袋市场的指南】(https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/03/07/an-economists-guide-to-the-luxury-handbag-market)（3月7日）*

Read more from Free exchange, our column on economics:Why “Freakonomics” failed to transform economics (Mar 21st)How NIMBYs increase carbon emissions (Mar 14th)An economist’s guide to the luxury-handbag market (Mar 7th)

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金融和经济 | 追寻价值 (Finance and economics | Hunting for value)

随着市场飙升，投资者是否应该超越美国？ (As markets soar, should investors look beyond America?)

该国的股票价格极其昂贵。 (The country’s stocks are extremely expensive)

每周创造新高。毫不奇怪，市场上正在逐渐弥漫一种不安情绪。根据美国银行最新的月度调查，约40%的全球基金经理认为，人工智能（AI）股票——这次涨势的关键驱动力已经处于泡沫状态。即使是华尔街最梦幻的分析师也认为，美国S&P 500指数在今年余下的九个月只能获得微不足道的增长。对于一些人来说，这种紧张预示着一场崩盘。但对于所有人来说，这激发了一个问题：股价已经上涨如此之多，还有哪些股票具有较好的价值呢？

EVERY WEEK, a new high. Little wonder a sense of unease is settling over markets. Some 40% of global fund managers think that artificial-intelligence (AI) stocks—a crucial driver of the rally—are already in a bubble, according to Bank of America’s latest monthly survey. Even Wall Street’s most starry-eyed pundits reckon America’s S&P 500 index of leading shares can eke out only minor gains in the remaining nine months of the year. For some, such nervousness portends a crash. But for everyone, it prompts a question: with stock prices having already risen so much, are there any left that offer good value?

“价值”股票变得不受青睐，且理由充足。它们被定义为价格与其基础资产或收益相比较低的股票（与价格较高、但承诺迅速增长利润的“增长”股票相对）。如果听起来有吸引力，那么近年来的回报并不尽如人意。在过去的十年里，价值股票的表现不如更广泛的市场，并且被它们的增长对手远远甩在身后（见图表1）。在2022年，随着利率上升和投机资产价格下跌，天平似乎短暂地向另一边倾斜。但也仅是短暂的：当前的牛市再次导致价值股票被其余股票击败。

“Value” stocks are unfashionable, and with good reason. They are defined as shares with prices that are low compared with their underlying assets or earnings (as opposed to “growth” stocks with prices that are high on these measures, yet which promise rapidly rising profits). If that sounds appealing, the returns of recent years have not been. Over the past decade value stocks have performed worse than the broader market and been left in the dust by their growth counterparts (see chart 1). In 2022, as interest rates rose and the prices of speculative assets fell, the pendulum briefly seemed to swing back. But only briefly: the current bull market has again seen value stocks trounced by the rest.

这段连败使许多人宣称价值投资已死。批评者称它难以解释支撑当今许多成功公司的无形资产和研究支出。投资工具让筛选公司基于价格-价值比变得容易，这意味着这种方法可能很快被套利掉。换句话说，那些看起来便宜的公司之所以便宜，是有原因的。

This losing streak has led many to declare value investing dead. Critics say it struggles to account for the intangible assets and research spending that underpin many of today’s most successful firms. Investing tools make it easy to filter companies based on price-to-value ratios, meaning that potential returns from this approach will probably be arbitraged away fast. Firms left looking cheap, in other words, are cheap for a reason.

尽管如此，担忧仍然存在，即引领当今牛市的股票估值已经过高，无法提供卓越的未来回报。一个广泛关注的指标是耶鲁大学的Robert Shiller创制的周期调整市盈率（CAPE）比率，该比率将价格除以过去十年的通货膨胀调整后的收益。对于美国的S&P 500指数，CAPE只有两次比今天更高：在互联网泡沫的顶峰和2022年崩盘之前。即使不会发生崩盘，高CAPE比率在历史上已被证明是未来糟糕甚至负面长期实际回报的强有力指标。

The worry persists, though, that valuations of stocks leading today’s bull run have become too high for them to offer stellar future returns. A widely watched measure is the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio devised by Robert Shiller of Yale University, which divides prices by the past decade’s-worth of inflation-adjusted earnings. For America’s S&P 500 index, the CAPE has been higher than it is today only twice: at the peak of the dotcom bubble, and just before the crash of 2022. Even if a crash does not follow, a high CAPE ratio has historically proved to be a strong indicator that poor or even negative long-run real returns lie ahead.

对于Elm Partners的Victor Haghani来说，答案很明显：放眼美国之外。在更广泛的世界中，估值较低（见图表2）。Haghani先生计算出，尽管美国股票的总体市盈率明显高于其他地方，但其约40%的基础收益来自海外。在其他地方，大约20%的总收入来自美国。换句话说，这两组公司的利润实际上有相当大的重叠度。

For Victor Haghani of Elm Partners, a fund-management outfit, the response is obvious: look beyond America. In the wider world, valuations are lower (see chart 2). Mr Haghani calculates that, although American stocks attract a much higher aggregate price-to-earnings multiple than those elsewhere, around 40% of their underlying earnings come from overseas. In the rest of the world, some 20% of total earnings derive from America. Put another way, there is a strong degree of crossover in where the profits of the two groups of companies are actually made.

尽管如此，市场对来自美国和其他地方的收益所赋予的价值却天差地别。Haghani的数据分析表明，要从收益转化为股价（对于美国和非美国股票），投资者正在将来自美国的收益提高了40多倍。来自世界其他地方的收益的等效提升因子仅为十。这种差异说服力不足。认为美国公司应该获得较高估值是有道理的，因为它们的增长潜力具有独特性。但为什么来自美国的收益将股价提高得比其他地方的要多呢？

Despite this, the values the market assigns to earnings derived from America and elsewhere are wildly different. Mr Haghani’s number-crunching suggests that, to get from earnings to share prices (for both American and non-American stocks), investors are scaling up those coming from America by a factor of over 40. For earnings coming from the rest of the world the equivalent scaling factor is just ten. Such a disparity makes little sense. It is one thing to suggest American firms deserve a higher valuation because there is something exceptional about their growth potential. But why should earnings originating from America boost a share’s price so much more than those from elsewhere?

也许，美国之外的国家股票市场（或者说，来源于这些国家的收益）之所以看起来便宜，只是相对而言被低估。这正是市场最终可能通过提高为非美国公司所分配的估值，降低美国公司的估值，或两者兼有（对误差进行更正的方式）。此外，价值投资往往涉及对个别公司或行业进行集中押注，而押注这种重新定价可以将风险分散到全球大部分地区。

Perhaps the stockmarkets of countries outside America (or, equivalently, the earnings coming from these countries) are simply underpriced in relative terms. This is just the sort of mispricing that markets may eventually correct by raising the valuations assigned for non-American firms, lowering those of American firms, or both. What is more, whereas value investing often involves taking concentrated bets on individual companies or sectors, betting on this repricing allows the risk to be spread across most of the world.

实际上，甚至认为在美国之外的公司因为缺乏活力而获得目前较低估值的论点也站不住脚。这通常是以各市场的部门组成来陈述的：美国市场充斥着明日的颠覆性科技公司，而欧洲市场却充斥着死板的银行和工业公司。

In fact, even the argument that companies outside America merit their current low valuations because they lack dynamism is threadbare. It is frequently couched in terms of the sectoral composition of each market: America’s is brimming with the disruptive tech firms of tomorrow, while Europe’s, for example, is stuffed with stodgy banks and industrial outfits.

但摩根大通资产管理公司的Hugh Gimber对欧洲公司的较低估值情况抛下冷水并不认同这一解释。他的团队已将欧洲公司按部门进行分析，分析了其盈利被提高到其股价水平的历史倍数，然后将这些倍数与美国公司的等效倍数进行了比较。在大多数部门，欧洲公司的股票一直受到长期平均折扣的影响。然而，如今，在每个部门，这些折扣都存在，并且比它们的长期平均值更深（见图表3）。这并不代表这些公司缺乏运营在前沿产业的能力，而更有可能是它们被低估了。

But Hugh Gimber of JPMorgan Asset Management pours cold water on the idea that this explains the lower valuations of European firms. His team has split the continent’s companies by sector, analysed the historical multiples by which their earnings have been scaled up to generate their share prices, then compared these with the equivalent multiples for American firms. In most sectors, the European companies’ stocks have suffered from long-run average discounts. Today, though, these discounts are present in every sector—and are much deeper than their long-run averages (see chart 3). Rather than failing to operate in cutting-edge industries, such firms might simply be underpriced.

不仅在欧洲存在这种潜在的价值交易机会。Gimber先生指出一系列新兴市场正站在从全球趋势中获利的有利位置上，而这些市场的估值远不像在美国那样令人眼花缭乱。举例来说，从受益于西方供应链的“友好”洗牌中受益的墨西哥和越南，到乘风破浪AI浪潮的韩国和台湾等国家。资产管理公司Man Group的Jens Foehrenbach指出，东京证券交易所已设定了明确的目标，促使公司采取行动，提高其股票的价格-账面值比率（公司市值除以净资产）。日本TOPIX指数的42%成分尚未达到这一水平，这对于那些认为它们会达到这一水平的人来说是一个赌注。

It is not just in Europe that such potential value trades abound. Mr Gimber points to a range of emerging markets that are well placed to profit from global trends, and where valuations are nowhere near as eye-watering as in America. Examples range from Mexico and Vietnam—benefiting from the “friendshoring” of Western supply chains—to countries riding the AI wave, such as South Korea and Taiwan. Jens Foehrenbach of Man Group, an asset manager, notes that the Tokyo Stock Exchange has set an explicit target, prodding firms to take actions that will raise their shares’ price-to-book ratios (the firm’s market value divided by its net assets) above 1. Some 42% of constituents of Japan’s Topix index have yet to reach this, suggesting a bet for those who think that they will.

所有这些市场的共同特点是，就像任何价值投资一样，押注于它们都需要一次信仰的飞跃。美国股市表现优异，越长时间显得那是理所当然的。也许在别处上市的公司看起来更便宜，只是因为它们实际上更差。但现在有迹象表明，定价差距已经扩大到让专业投资者无法继续忍受的程度。在三月份，全球基金经理告诉美国银行的调查，他们月度把更多的股票资产配置从美国转向欧洲和新兴市场股票，这种情况是多年来罕见的。任何一家被低估的公司可能不会长期保持低估。■

A unifying feature of all such markets is that—like any value investment—betting on them involves a leap of faith. The longer America’s stockmarket outperforms the rest, the more it seems like the natural way of things. Maybe companies listed elsewhere look cheaper because they are simply worse. But there are signs that the pricing differentials have grown too large for professional investors to continue tolerating. In March global fund managers told Bank of America’s survey that, month on month, they had rotated more of their equity allocations into European and emerging-market stocks than they had done for years. Any that are underpriced may not remain so for long. ■

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金融与经济 | 遭受重创 (Finance and economics | Battered and bruised)

欧洲经济饱受来自各方的打击 (Europe’s economy is under attack from all sides)

先是普京，现在又是习。下一个会是特朗普吗？ (First Putin, now Xi. Next Trump?)

十年前，习近平受到德国鲁尔河谷杜伊斯堡的欢迎。他盛赞该地区是中国投资的中心，迎接了一列从重庆经由俄罗斯到达欧洲工业区的火车，并欣赏了传统矿山歌曲的交响乐表演。不久之后，另一位中国抵达德国的人却受到了更冷淡的接待。今年二月，一艘名为“比亚迪探索者1号”的船只卸载了约3000辆由中国电动汽车制造商比亚迪生产的电动汽车。正如船名所示，这很可能是众多次的首次。这不足为奇引发了人们对德国备受尊敬的汽车制造商的未来感到担忧。

A decade ago Xi Jinping was welcomed to Duisburg in Germany’s Ruhr valley. He praised the region as a hub for Chinese investment; greeted a train that had spent a fortnight travelling from Chongqing, via Russia, to Europe’s industrial belt; and enjoyed an orchestral performance of traditional mining songs. More recently, another Chinese arrival in Germany received a frostier reception. In February a ship called BYD Explorer No. 1 unloaded 3,000 or so electric cars made by BYD, a Chinese electric-vehicle (EV) firm. As the ship’s name suggests, it is likely to be the first of many. Little surprise that it has prompted worries about the future of Germany’s hallowed carmakers.

中国正在大量生产汽车，因为其领导人将资金和贷款注入高科技行业，试图振兴该国陷入停滞状态的经济。中国的制造贸易顺差在全球gdp占比中接近创纪录高位，且有望进一步上升。因此，欧洲领导人担心将涌入先进、廉价的中国商品。欧洲委员会在3月5日决定，已有足够的证据表明中国不公平地对其电动汽车制造商进行补贴，为征收关税铺平了道路。欧洲委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩警告中国不要在绿色技术方面“竞逐底线”。英国已开始对该国的挖掘机展开调查。法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙将于五月接待习近平。据外交人员称，他将就贸易问题传达“坚定信息”。

China is churning out cars, as its leaders funnel cash and loans to high-tech industry in an attempt to revive the country’s moribund economy. Its manufacturing trade surplus is close to a record high as a share of global GDP, and is set to rise higher still. As a result, European leaders are fearful of an influx of advanced, cheap Chinese goods. On March 5th the European Commission decided that it had sufficient evidence to declare China had unfairly subsidised its EV-makers, paving the way for tariffs. Ursula von der Leyen, the commission’s president, has warned China not to “race to the bottom” on green tech. Britain has begun a probe into the country’s excavators. Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, will host Mr Xi in May. He will, according to diplomats, deliver “firm messages” on trade.

从巴西到印度，各国正在采取措施阻止中国的出口。然而，由于欧洲长期以来将贸易作为发展模式核心，中国对欧洲生产商构成了特别威胁。根据国际货币基金组织的研究人员，欧洲是世界上对贸易和投资最开放的地区。在欧盟，货物和服务贸易占gdp的比例高达44%，几乎是美国的两倍。作为一个以规则为基础的集团，欧盟不愿通过设置壁垒来明显违反贸易规则。英国也是如此，英国有一段支持自由贸易的历史。

Countries from Brazil to India are moving to block China’s exports. They are a particular threat to Europe’s producers, though, because of the continent’s growth model, which has long had trade at its heart. According to IMF researchers, Europe is the region of the world most open to trade and investment (see chart 1). In the EU trade in goods and services runs to 44% of GDP, almost twice as much as in America. As a rules-based bloc, the EU is reluctant to violate trade rules too blatantly by erecting barriers. So is Britain, which has a history of support for free trade.

欧洲工业面临的新的中国冲击正值其处于一个糟糕时刻。欧洲仍在应对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰引发的能源震荡, 此时国家领导人正试图加快向绿色转型。天然气价格——通常在20欧元（22美元）左右每兆瓦时——在2022年飙升至300多欧元，推高了电力价格。疫情后的反弹演变成了通货膨胀和能源危机。欧洲央行被迫将利率提高至4%，打击了本已疲弱的经济需求。

The new China shock arrives at a terrible time for European industry. It is still dealing with an energy shock caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which began just as national leaders were attempting to accelerate the green transition. Gas prices—usually around €20 ($22) per megawatt hour—spiked to more than €300 in 2022, sending electricity prices soaring (see chart 2). A post-covid rebound turned into inflation and an energy crisis. The European Central Bank (ECB) was forced to raise rates to 4%, hitting demand in an already weakened economy.

疫情大流行期间的财政慷慨援助和能源危机因此转为收紧。德国严格的赤字限制迫使该国今年削减开支，并在2025年将进一步削减。法国刚刚宣布2023年赤字为gdp的5.5%，远高于预测。法国已经启动了布鲁诺·勒梅尔所称的“紧急刹车”，削减了100亿欧元的支出，以使财政政策重新走上正轨。

Fiscal largesse during the pandemic and energy crisis has since given way to retrenchment. Germany’s tight deficit limits have forced the country to cut back this year, with more cuts to come in 2025. France has just announced that its deficit in 2023 was 5.5% of gdp, well above forecasts. It had already pulled what Bruno Le Maire, its finance minister, calls an “emergency brake”, cutting €10bn of spending in order to bring fiscal policy back on track.

欧盟的gdp自2019年以来实际增长仅为4%，大约是美国的一半。在英国和德国，人均gdp实际上有所下降。欧盟和英国今年的官方预测显示增长将低于1%；在此之后，情况是不确定的。而在疫情大流行期间，美国的生产率似乎有所提高，而欧洲的生产率则仍在低迷。欧洲央行、国家领导人、智囊团和两位意大利前总理恩里科·莱塔和马里奥·德拉吉都在努力找出原因。同时，另一个威胁也悬在眼前：如果唐纳德·特朗普赢得美国总统选举，欧洲出口商可能会受到对其最有利可图市场之一的销售关税的影响。

The EU’s gdp has grown by just 4% in real terms since 2019, which is around half the pace America has enjoyed. In Britain and Germany GDP per person has actually fallen (see chart 3). Official forecasts for the eu and Britain project growth of less than 1% this year; beyond that, things are uncertain. Whereas American productivity seems to have risen in the pandemic, Europe’s is limping along. The ECB, national leaders, think-tanks and two former Italian prime ministers, Enrico Letta and Mario Draghi, are trying to work out why. At the same time, another threat looms: if Donald Trump wins America’s presidential election, European exporters could be subject to tariffs on sales to one of their most lucrative markets.

因此，当欧洲经济受到2022年的俄罗斯震荡影响时，它将如何适应来自中国的新冲击，或者可能来自美国的第三次冲击？第一个中国冲击发生在2001年，当时中国加入世界贸易组织并从较低的贸易壁垒中受益，给西方制造商带来了挑战。在美国，一些地区和行业受到了重创。欧洲相对来说受到的影响较轻，部分原因是该冲击与中东欧国家加入欧盟同时发生。欧盟最新成员国的快速发展促进了该集团的生产率增长，并创造了对西方商品的需求。

So as the continent’s economy reels from the Russia shock of 2022, how will it adapt to a new one from China and maybe a third from America? The first China shock came in 2001, when the country entered the WTO and benefited from lower trade barriers, posing a challenge to Western manufacturers. In America, some regions and sectors were hit hard. Europe got off more lightly, in part because the shock coincided with the accession of central and eastern European countries to the EU. The fast development of the EU’s newest members supported the bloc’s productivity growth and created demand for Western goods.

这一次情况将有所不同。尽管中国正朝着高科技制造业发展以应对其经济困境，但习近平也热衷于让国家摆脱对西方工业的依赖。他希望在他认为对国家实力至关重要的领域建立技术领导地位，比如工业机器人和铁路设备。一个处于经济走软状态的中国希望减少购买汽车、机械和高科技设备，这些正是在第一波中国冲击期间推动欧洲出口的商品。与新千年之交相比，中国经济规模也大得多。正如咨询公司绝对战略的亚当·沃尔夫指出，自2019年以来中国出口的增长（占国内生产总值的比例适中）已经在其他地方感受到强烈冲击。

This time will be different. Although China is moving towards high-tech manufacturing in response to its economic struggles, Mr Xi is also keen to wean the country off Western industry. He wants to build technological leadership in sectors he sees as necessary for national strength, such as industrial robots and railway equipment. A weaker China aiming to be less dependent on foreign inputs will buy fewer cars, less machinery and less high-tech equipment, precisely the sort of goods that lifted European exports during the first China shock. China’s economy is also much larger than it was at the turn of the millennium. As Adam Wolfe of Absolute Strategy, a consultancy, notes, the rise in China’s exports since 2019—moderate as a share of the country’s GDP—has already felt like a deluge elsewhere.

此外，欧洲企业现在面临着中国在越来越复杂的市场上对家内外竞争。以汽车为例，这是欧洲工业的镇星产业。该行业及其供应链约有300万欧洲人受雇。然而，根据汽车顾问马蒂亚斯·施密特的数据，中国品牌已经在西欧纯电池市场占有率达到9%。在整个欧洲大陆，中国品牌的新注册消费级车辆在2022年至2023年间增加了一倍多。法国、德国和意大利的大众市场品牌似乎尤其容易受到竞争的冲击。瑞士银行的分析师认为，“传统”汽车制造商的全球市场份额将从今天的81%下降到2030年的58%。

Moreover, European firms now face Chinese competition in increasingly sophisticated markets, both at home and in third countries. Take cars, the crown jewel of Europe’s industry. The sector, along with its supply chain, employs around 3m Europeans. Yet Chinese brands already make up 9% of the pure-battery market in western Europe, according to data from Matthias Schmidt, an automotive consultant. Across the continent, new registrations of Chinese-brand consumer vehicles more than doubled between 2022 and 2023. French, German and Italian mass-market brands appear to be especially vulnerable to competition. Analysts at UBS, a bank, reckon that “legacy” carmakers’ global market share will drop from 81% today to 58% by 2030.

欧洲领导人特别热衷于发展绿色产业，因此他们投入了数十亿资金用于气候转型。然而，为大众市场生产的欧洲公司将很难与中国竞争对手提供的价值相抗衡。例如，根据全球风能理事会的数据，中国在2022年的风力涡轮机市场占有率达到60%，主导了这一市场。这为中国制造商提供了进一步创新所需的规模。且情势正朝着一个方向发展。中国的生产者价格指数，即衡量工厂门口价格的指标，已连续17个月下降，现在大致处于2019年的水平。而欧盟，即使排除能源成本，该指数也比四年前高出约四分之一。

Europe’s leaders are particularly keen to develop green industries as they pour billions into the climate transition. Yet European companies producing for the mass market will struggle to compete with the value offered by their Chinese competitors. China already dominates wind turbines, for instance, with a market share of 60% in 2022, according to the Global Wind Energy Council, an industry body. That provides its manufacturers with the scale needed for further innovation. And things are only heading in one direction. China’s producer-price index, which measures prices at the factory gate, has been falling for 17 months, and is roughly at its level of 2019. The same index for the EU, even excluding energy costs, is almost a quarter above its level of four years ago.

欧洲自身试图“减轻”来自中国的风险——即，减少从中国引进的关键输入并限制对高科技商品的投资和出口——这也会推高成本。比勒费尔德大学的朱利安·欣茨及合著者最近在一篇论文中研究了与中国及其盟友进行有力脱钩的影响。他们发现对于与中国经济联系最密切的欧洲经济德国来说，逐步调整所需的成本将占国内生产总值的1.2%，与日本的情况相仿。其他主要欧洲国家和美国的损失约为gdp的0.5%。中国的损失将达到大约2%。

Europe’s own attempts to “de-risk” from China—that is, to source fewer critical inputs from the country and restrict investments and exports of high-tech goods to it—will also push up costs. In a recent paper Julian Hinz of Bielefeld University and his co-authors look at the effects of a hard decoupling from China and its allies. For Germany, the European economy most closely intertwined with China, they find that a gradual adjustment would cost 1.2% of GDP, around the same as for Japan. Other major European countries and America would lose about 0.5% of GDP. China’s loss would come to around 2%.

如果特朗普在十一月赢得总统选举，欧洲的“减轻”成本将变得更加难以承受。新的关税是欧洲出口商的一个令人不安的前景，去年他们向美国销售了价值5000亿欧元的商品。事实上，欧盟27个成员国中有20个与美国存在贸易顺差。

Europe’s de-risking costs will become harder to bear if Mr Trump wins in November. New levies are a grim prospect for the continent’s exporters, which last year sold €500bn-worth of goods to America. Indeed, 20 of the EU’s 27 member states ran a goods-trade surplus with the country.

特朗普在其第一任期内加征关税铝和钢，打击了欧洲生产商。欧洲回应了美国产品的关税，包括波旁威士忌和摩托车。欧盟和美国在乔·拜登上台后才达成（有些岌岌可危的）停火协议。特朗普2.0可能会更加痛苦。这位前总统建议对所有美国进口征收10%的关税。他的贸易顾问罗伯特·莱特希泽最近更进一步，在《经济学家》杂志上辩称可能会“必要地”采取更严厉的关税措施。

Mr Trump stoked tensions during his first term, when America imposed hefty tariffs on aluminium and steel, hitting European producers. Europe replied with its own tariffs on American products, including bourbon and motorbikes. It took the arrival of Joe Biden for the two sides to reach a (somewhat shaky) truce. Trump 2.0 could be much more painful. The former president has proposed a 10% tariff on all America’s imports. Robert Lighthizer, who advises him on trade, has gone further, arguing recently in The Economist that even more brutal tariffs might be “necessary”.

能源、中国和特朗普冲击的结合可能会导致欧洲经济的重组进程延续较长时间。对于欧洲大陆的消费者而言，这将是一种双刃剑。贸易战使商品价格上涨，减少选择，但当中国对太阳能电池进行补贴时，欧洲的公用事业和家庭可以获得更廉价的能源。一些地区也可能受益。例如，西班牙拥有太阳能潜力，瑞典拥有水力和风力资源，这些国家可能会吸引新的产业。事实上，今年早些时候，瑞典公司H2 Green Steel宣布已为其位于北部吕勒奥附近的工厂获得65亿欧元的资金支持。

The German Economic Institute, a think-tank, has calculated the possible impact. Imagine America applies 10% tariffs on its imports and punishes China with even higher tariffs. America’s own economy would take a hit, via higher consumer prices—but Europe’s would be hurt more. Germany’s total exports would be nearly 5% lower by 2028 than in a world with no new American tariffs. Private investment would also be hit. As a result, German GDP would be 1.2% lower, equivalent to a cumulative loss of €120bn-worth of output by 2028. A Trump administration might go even further, seeking to retaliate against Europe for its digital-services taxes, which target American tech firms, or for refusing to toe the president’s line on China.

同样地，一些外国公司将希望在欧洲投资，以便在贸易困难时接近客户。波兰在2021年和2022年吸引了近300亿欧元的外国直接投资（FDI），到2023年可能也有同等数额的投资。这是该国在大流行前通常收到的投资金额的两倍。如今，FDI在波兰的资本支出中占比25%，而在工业化国家平均仅为5%左右。其中一些资金流入来自德国工程公司博世和日本企业大金，它们都正在该国建设热泵工厂。根据咨询公司EY的一项调查，67%“国际决策者”预计他们公司在欧洲的存在会增长，而这一比例在2021年为40%。这可能包括防务公司，它们将为欧洲不断增长的武装力量以及中国的电动车制造商提供装备。

Meanwhile, when it comes to tensions between China and the EU, tit-for-tat probes into subsidies and dumping will probably become common. The Chinese government, for example, has a clear idea who is behind the EU’s EV probe: it has started an anti-dumping probe into French cognac. France has designed its own ev subsidies for consumers to exclude Chinese brands; Chinese firms offer customers a rebate of the same magnitude, in what one analyst calls “a single-finger greeting to Mr Macron”.

但大部分重组将不那么愉快。德国最大的汽车零部件供应商之一康帝利正在裁员数千人。博世正在裁减其汽车软件部门的1,200个职位。汽车行业中的其他企业也宣布了裁员计划。此前的中国冲击推动了技术进步，因为工人转移到投资于创新的更具生产力的企业。但根据奥地利经济研究所的Klaus Friesenbichler及其合著者的研究，过去15年左右，受到中国竞争影响的企业显示出生产率增长放缓的迹象。

The combination of energy, China and Trump shocks could lead to an extended period of restructuring in the European economy. For the continent’s consumers, this would be a mixed blessing. Trade wars make goods pricier and reduce choice, but when China subsidises solar panels, European utilities and households get cheaper energy. Some regions could benefit, too. Countries such as Spain, with solar-power potential, or Sweden, with water and wind power, could attract new industries. Indeed, earlier this year H2 Green Steel, a Swedish firm, announced that it had secured €6.5bn in funding for its plant near Lulea in the country’s north.

尽管德国是欧洲的制造业强国，但这三重挑战可能会影响整个大陆。在西欧拥有耗能产业或生产大众化产品的地区可能会受到损失。即使是最初不会受到影响的地区，也可能会看到当地成功企业更加倾向于在海外投资，以适应其他地方的保护主义。根据欧洲央行的一项调查，未来五年，欧元区75%的大型企业希望在多个国家间实现多样化、将生产靠近销售地或将业务的部分转移到更具政治联盟的国家。

Similarly, some foreign firms will want to invest in Europe to be close to customers when trade is difficult. Poland attracted almost €30bn in foreign direct investment (fdi) in 2021 and 2022, and probably as much in 2023. That is twice the amount it typically received before the pandemic. FDI now makes up 25% of Poland’s capital spending, compared with an average of 5% or so in industrialised countries. Some of its inflows came from Bosch, a German engineering firm, and Daikin, a Japanese conglomerate, both of which are building heat-pump factories in the country. According to a survey by EY, a consultancy, 67% of “international decision-makers” expect their firm’s European presence to grow, up from 40% in 2021. That may include defence companies, which will supply the continent’s growing armed forces—and China’s EV-makers.

财政困难的政府在帮助新兴产业转型方面将会面临一定的限制。特别是当它们已经承诺在国防上增加支出，并且没有多少渴望进行能够促进增长的大型欧盟改革时。最近，该联盟批准了7个国家在数年内为云计算提供12亿欧元的公共补贴。正如另一家智库麦肯锡全球研究所所指出的，这相当于亚马逊网络服务年度投资额的约4%。尖端技术的专利主要由美国和中国公司注册。尽管欧盟拥有庞大的人口，但在很多方面仍然面临规模不足的问题。内部商品贸易仍然不尽如人意。服务市场仍然像过去一样分散。

But most of the restructuring will be less pleasant. Continental, one of Germany’s largest suppliers of car parts, is shedding thousands of jobs. Bosch is getting rid of 1,200 positions in its automotive-software division. Others in the car industry have also announced cuts. The previous China shock spurred technological advances as workers moved to more productive companies that invested in innovation. But over the past 15 or so years, firms exposed to Chinese competition have shown signs of slower productivity growth, according to research by Klaus Friesenbichler of the Austrian Institute of Economic Research and co-authors.

这留下了第二种方法——试图保留老方式——而这势必引发激烈的游说。在民粹主义右翼再度抬头的时代，很少有政客愿意为失业负责。深化资本市场或整合电力市场等技术性工作想要获得的回报并不会很快到来。在布鲁塞尔和巴黎，对于没有帮助的补贴和其他形式的保护主义的呼声正在增加。与此同时，德国受困于一个无法就任何事达成一致的三方联盟，更不用说一个横跨地缘政治和产业政策的棘手问题。当政客们拖延不决时，越来越多的比亚迪船只将驶向欧洲的港口。■

Although Germany is Europe’s manufacturing powerhouse, the triple challenge could affect the whole continent. Regions with energy-intensive industries or that produce mass-market products in western Europe stand to lose out. Even areas insulated from the initial effects may see successful local firms invest more overseas, as they adapt to protectionism elsewhere. Over the next five years some 75% of large businesses in the euro area expect to diversify across countries, move production closer to sales or shift parts of their businesses to more politically aligned countries, according to a survey by the ECB.

There are limits to what cash-strapped governments will be able do to ease the transition to new industries. This is especially true when they have promised to spend more on defence and there is little desire for the sort of grand EU reforms that could help stimulate growth. The bloc recently approved €1.2bn in public subsidies for cloud computing by seven countries over several years. As McKinsey Global Institute, another think-tank, points out, that comes to about 4% of the annual investment of Amazon Web Services. Patents in frontier technologies are registered mostly by American and Chinese firms. Despite its huge population, in many respects the EU still struggles for scale. Internal goods trade is far from seamless. Services markets are as fragmented as ever.

That leaves a second approach—seeking to preserve the old—for which lobbying is inevitably fierce. In an age when the populist right is resurgent, few politicians want to be blamed for job losses. Payoffs from doing the difficult, technical work of deepening capital markets or integrating electricity markets do not come quickly. In Brussels and Paris the clamour for unhelpful subsidies and other forms of protectionism is growing. Germany, meanwhile, is hamstrung by a three-party coalition that cannot agree on anything, let alone a thorny issue that cuts across geopolitics and industrial policy. As politicians prevaricate, more BYD ships will make the journey to Europe’s ports. ■

回到目录

金融与经济 | Buttonwood (Finance and economics | Buttonwood)

“华丽七人组”是如何误导的 (How the “Magnificent Seven” misleads)

别忘了股市宠儿的超级组合。 (Forget the supergroup of stockmarket darlings)

所有的模型都是错误的，这是统计学家的格言，但其中一些是有用的。去年的这个时候，许多专家的模型开始显得越来越不准确、越来越不实用。共识预测显示经济增长将陷入严重困境，股价将黯淡无光——而这还是在一批美国地区银行陷入困境之前。利率上涨似乎注定会带来普遍的痛苦。然而，事实情况是，就在这个银行动荡展开的国家，股市开始飙升。截至夏天，美国标普500指数的领先股自前年秋季低点以来上涨了28%。分析师们寻找新模型来解释当时的情况，受欢迎的选择围绕着“壮丽七人组”。

All models are wrong, goes the statisticians’ adage, but some are useful. This time last year, plenty of pundits’ models started looking more wrong and less useful. The consensus forecast was a grim spell for economic growth and a dreary one for stock prices—and that was before a clutch of American regional banks buckled. Higher interest rates seemed set to cause pain everywhere. Instead, in the very country where the banking turmoil unfolded, the stockmarket began to soar. By the summer America’s S&P 500 index of leading shares had risen by 28% from a trough hit the previous autumn. Analysts hunted for a new model to explain what was going on, and the popular choice revolved around the “Magnificent Seven”.

原因是这组科技巨头公司——谷歌母公司Alphabet、亚马逊、苹果、Meta、微软、英伟达和特斯拉的股票走势，就好像它们自成一派市场。到了六月初，标普500指数自年初以来上涨了12%，但其中几乎全部涨幅都归功于这七只股票，而其他493只股票的整体走势基本保持平稳。到七月，它们已经成为指数中最大的七家企业。到十月底，这个壮丽七人组自年初以来市值增加了3.4万亿美元（增长了50%），而其他493家公司的市值则减少了1万亿美元（下跌了3.8%）。尽管苹果是该组中表现最差的公司，但其股价仍上涨了30%。

The reason was that shares in this group of tech giants—Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla—were acting as if they made up a market of their own. By the start of June the S&P 500 had risen by 12% since the beginning of the year, but virtually the entire gain was down to these seven stocks, with the other 493 having collectively moved sideways. By July they were the biggest seven companies in the index. By late October the Magnificent Seven had added $3.4trn (or 50%) to their combined market value since the start of the year, even as the other 493 had lost $1trn (3.8%). Apple was the group’s worst performer but had nevertheless seen its share price rise by 30%.

遗憾的是，这个阵营已经瓦解。从10月27日开始的暴涨行情的一个特点是壮丽七人组停止了集体涨势。随着更广泛的标普500指数上涨了26%，该组中的三家公司的领先地位已经变成了落后：谷歌和苹果的股价表现不佳，而特斯拉的股价则直接下跌。其余四家超过了指数的表现，但涨幅却相差甚远。微软的表现仅略好于标普500指数的平均水平，而英伟达的股价则飙升了惊人的129%。七家公司中有六家仍是指数中最大的股票，但特斯拉已被沃伦·巴菲特的投资机构伯克希尔·哈撒韦所取代。

Alas, the band has broken up. One feature of the storming bull run that began on October 27th is that the Magnificent Seven have stopped charging as a pack. As the broader S&P 500 has risen by 26%, three of the group have turned from leaders to laggards: the share prices of Alphabet and Apple have underperformed, while that of Tesla has fallen outright. The remaining four have beaten the index, but by wildly differing amounts. Whereas Microsoft has done only slightly better than the average S&P 500 member, Nvidia’s shares have rocketed by an astonishing 129%. Six of the seven are still the index’s largest stocks, but Tesla has been replaced by Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett’s investment vehicle.

发生了什么？去年春天，情节显而易见：这个壮丽七人组将成为人工智能（AI）淘金热的赢家。它们每家都已经非常巨大，这将有助于它们抗击任何衰退，并在研发方面超过竞争对手。每家公司已经征服了各自的科技领域，这意味着它们可能会继续超越其他公司。这些公司的巨额现金储备也让上涨的利率看起来并不太具威胁性。

What happened? Last spring the narrative was obvious: the Magnificent Seven would end up as the winners from the artificial-intelligence (AI) gold rush. All were enormous to begin with, which would help them weather any downturn and outspend rivals on research and development. Each had already conquered its respective niche of the tech world, meaning they could probably carry on outsmarting other firms. And their big cash balances stopped rising interest rates from looking too threatening.

部分原因在于这个迷人的故事在其开始时就被过于简化。将壮丽七人组视为“大科技”的具体化身——或者至少是“大科技”作为一个同质化集团——总是有些牵强附会。除了拥有万亿美元的估值和一大群聪明员工外，生产AI芯片的公司（英伟达）与在线零售商（亚马逊）或社交网络供应商（Meta）并没有太多共同之处。一个成立于1975年的软件公司（微软）不一定与成立于2003年的电动汽车制造商（特斯拉）拥有相同的前景。在这方面，壮丽七人组的概念并不孤单。想想“金砖四国”（巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非）或者更大更模糊的“新兴市场”集团的随意性。

In part this seductive story has fallen apart because, like all models, it was oversimplified to begin with. The idea of the Magnificent Seven as “big tech” incarnate—or at least of “big tech” as a homogenous group—was always something of a stretch. Aside from trillion-dollar valuations and hordes of clever employees, a manufacturer of AI chips (Nvidia) does not have an awful lot in common with an online retailer (Amazon) or a purveyor of social networks (Meta). Nor does a software firm born in 1975 (Microsoft) necessarily share the prospects of an electric-vehicle maker established in 2003 (Tesla). In this, the Magnificent Seven concept was not alone. Think of the arbitrariness of the “BRICS” gang of countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), or of the even bigger and more amorphous “emerging markets” group.

然而，壮丽七人组的解散也表明了一些更广泛的变化。一是随着去年的银行倒闭事件淡出人们的记忆，投资者对于高利率带来的影响变得不那么焦虑。美国的经济不仅摆脱了衰退的预测，反而蓬勃发展。那些靠着大市场份额、利润率和现金储备防范冲击的公司因此失去了一些“避风港”的吸引力。

Yet the disbanding of the Magnificent Seven signals some broader shifts, too. One is that, as last year’s bank failures fade from memory, investors have become less anxious about the impact of higher interest rates. America’s economy has defied recession forecasts and boomed instead. Firms that are insulated from shocks by big market shares, profit margins and cash buffers have thus lost some of their “safe haven” appeal.

此外，这也表明，尽管乐观情绪在市场中蔓延，但并非所有的谨慎都被抛诸脑后。一年前，生成式人工智能让投资者情绪高涨，科技巨头被默认视为赢家。而现在，这种默认的好处正在被取消。英伟达已经从其余集团中脱颖而出，因为它正在将炒作转化为跨越式的销售和利润。苹果和特斯拉受到惩罚，部分原因是未能有效传达它们将如何做到这一点。投资者可能对人工智能感到兴奋，但令人鼓舞的是，他们似乎也愿意保持怀疑态度，对于那些担心泡沫的人来说这是一个好现象。 ■

It also shows that, though optimism is surging through markets, not all caution has been thrown to the winds. A year ago generative AI so enthralled investors that tech giants were assumed to be winners by default. Now that automatic benefit of the doubt is being withdrawn. Nvidia has pulled away from the rest of the group as it is transforming hype into stratospheric sales and profits. Apple and Tesla are being punished, in part, for failing to communicate how they will do the same. Investors might be excited about AI but—encouragingly, for those who fear a bubble—they seem willing to be sceptical, too. ■

Read more from Buttonwood, our columnist on financial markets:How to trade an election (Mar 21st)The private-equity industry has a cash problem (Mar 14th)How investors get risk wrong (Mar 7th)

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科学技术 | 杀手的战术 (Science and technology | Killers’ tactics)

虎鲸在捕猎时采用残忍而协调的攻击方式 (Killer whales deploy brutal, co-ordinated attacks when hunting)

它们的技巧代代相传。 (Their techniques are passed down through the generations)

摩纳哥潜水峡谷海域游弋的虎鲸是残忍的动物。在猎杀灰鲸时，它们会以母子一对为目标，追逐它们直到犊鲸开始疲惫。这时，虎鲸通过穿梭在它们之间或者拖动犊鲸的尾鳍或鳍鳍，将灰鲸分开。一旦犊鲸与母鲸分离，虎鲸会用头部和尾巴猛击、然后跃身顶住其呼吸孔使其淹没，致使犊鲸失去生命。

The killer whales that roam the waters of the Monterey Submarine Canyon, off the coast of California, are brutal animals. When hunting grey whales, they target mother and calf pairs, chasing them until the calves begin to tire. At that point the killer whales separate the grey whales by manoeuvring between them or dragging the calves away by their tail flukes or fins. Once a calf is separated from its mother, the killer whales incapacitate it by bludgeoning it with their heads and tails before drowning it by leaping atop its blowhole to keep it below the surface.

虎鲸（Orcinus orca）是一个多样的物种，在全球各地拥有几个孤立的种群，占据不同——在许多情况下甚至是尚未被描述的——生态位。最近两项研究揭示了伺机潜伏在东北太平洋深海的虎鲸独特的狩猎文化。

The killer whale (Orcinus orca) is a diverse species, boasting several isolated populations around the world that occupy varying—and, in several cases, still little described—ecological niches. Two recent studies have shed some light on the unique hunting cultures of the killer whales that stalk the deep waters off the north-east Pacific Ocean.

不同的虎鲸种群被称为“生态型”，它们可能在大小、颜色和体型上有所不同。在它们的生态范围相互重叠的区域，虎鲸生态型很少互动，似乎也不交配。使得虎鲸生态型具有区别的大部分是它们的文化——虎鲸以社会学学习的行为，被认为是一代代传承下来的。这些行为包括对不同海洋猎物物种的偏好，以及用于定位、捕猎和杀死它们的协作策略，这些策略可能已经在数千年内得到磨练。不同的虎鲸生态型甚至会使用由点击、哨声和呼叫构成的不同“方言”进行交流，不同群体之间还会有不同的“口音”。

Distinct killer whale populations are known as “ecotypes” and can differ in size, colour and body proportion. Where their ecological ranges overlap, ecotypes rarely interact and do not appear to interbreed. Most of what makes killer-whale ecotypes distinct is their culture—socially learned behaviours that killer whales are known to transmit from one generation to the next. These include preferences for different marine prey species and the collaborative strategies used to locate, hunt and kill them, potentially honed over millennia. Different killer-whale ecotypes even communicate using distinct “dialects” made of clicks, whistles and calls, with “accents” that differ between pods.

最为研究的虎鲸生态型是占据东北太平洋海岸线的三个种群，从阿拉斯加北部到加利福尼亚南部。“近海”虎鲸长达6.6米，以每组100至200头的群体在远海水域巡逻，捕食诸如鲨鱼之类的洋面鱼类。“居留”虎鲸身长约7米，以每组高达25头的群体在海岸线上潜伏，专门捕食沿海鱼类（主要是鲑鱼）。最后，“短途”虎鲸个头可达8米，分布于浅海和深海沿海水域，捕食海洋哺乳动物，包括鲸类（鲸鱼和海豚），以及鳍足类（海狮和海豹）。虽然“近海”短途虎鲸潜伏在靠近海岸线的浅水中，“远海”短途虎鲸则在大陆架边沿海峡谷的深海开阔水域中狩猎。

The most studied killer-whale ecotypes are the three that occupy the north-east Pacific coastline, from northern Alaska to southern California. “Offshore” killer whales, up to 6.6 metres long, patrol distant waters in pods of 100 to 200 individuals, hunting pelagic fishes like sharks. “Resident” killer whales, around 7 metres in length, stalk the coastline in pods of up to 25 individuals, targeting coastal fishes (primarily salmon). Finally, “transient” killer whales, each up to 8 metres in length, are found across both shallow and deep coastal waters and pursue marine mammals, including cetaceans (whales and dolphins), as well as pinnipeds (sea lions and seals). While “inner-coast” transients stalk shallow waters near the shore, “outer-coast” transients hunt in the deep open waters along canyons at the edge of the continental shelf.

为了更好地了解这些短途虎鲸，加拿大英属哥伦比亚大学的Josh McInnes带领团队分析了由调查和观鲸船收集的261次关于摩纳哥潜水峡谷系统周围虎鲸的数据。这些数据包括近百起捕食事件。McInnes先生在《PLOS ONE》期刊上发布了他们的研究结果，发现外海短途虎鲸的行为模式与内海短途虎鲸不同。后者伏击港海豹、海狮和偶尔的水獭，而前者倾向于在追逐更大型哺乳动物猎物时进行协同潜水。

To understand these transient killer whales better, Josh McInnes from the University of British Columbia in Canada led a team that analysed 261 sightings of killer whales around the Monterey Submarine Canyon System collected by surveys and whale-watching vessels. The dataset included almost 100 predation events. Publishing their results in the journal PLOS ONE, Mr McInnes found patterns in behaviour of outer-coast transients that differed from those of their inner-coast cousins. The latter ambushed harbour seals, sea lions and the occasional otter, while the former tended to perform co-ordinated dives in their hunt for larger mammalian prey.

外海短途虎鲸似乎已开发出特殊的策略——比如反复猛击和淹死灰鲸犊鲸——因为它们的猎物更大且需要更长时间制服。就像大多数虎鲸的专门狩猎行为一样，这些策略被认为是代际沿袭下来的、作为一种文化知识。

Outer-coast transients appear to have developed specialised strategies—such as the repeated battering and drowning of grey whale calves—because their prey is bigger and takes more time to subdue. Like most specialised killer-whale hunting behaviours, these strategies are thought to be honed, down the generations, as a form of cultural knowledge.

在研究外海短途虎鲸的过程中，McInnes先生还偶然发现了一个之前未描述过的，完全不同等级的大型猎食者虎鲸种群。在《水生哺乳动物》期刊中发表的文章中，他的团队描述了1997年至2021年间与49头虎鲸进行的九次远海遭遇。这些虎鲸被发现猎杀抹香鲸、小抹香鲸和大片儿斑秃鲸，也在皮革龟上觅食。

While studying the outer-coast transients, Mr McInnes also stumbled upon hints of a previously undescribed population of killer whales that were big-game hunters of an entirely different class. Writing in the journal Aquatic Mammals, his team described nine offshore encounters with 49 killer whales between 1997 and 2021. These killer whales were seen killing sperm whales, pygmy sperm whales and large Risso’s dolphins, as well as scavenging on leatherback turtles.

对于身长可达成年虎鲸大小十倍以上的抹香鲸进行攻击是一场特别引人注目的猎食表演。在1997年10月21日，15至35头虎鲸被观察到在四个小时内对一个九头抹香鲸群进行了多次攻击，导致所有抹香鲸受伤，其中几头严重受伤，最终有一头抹香鲸被孤立出来并被杀死。在幸存的抹香鲸中，有三头被认为死于所受的伤，整个抹香鲸群后来可能也死于伤势。

The attack on sperm whales, which can grow to around ten times larger than adult killer whales, was a particularly impressive show of predatory force. On October 21st 1997, between 15 and 35 killer whales were observed hunting a herd of nine sperm whales over the course of four hours. The sperm whales were subjected to repeated waves of aggressive attack, injuring all of them and severely injuring several before one sperm whale was finally isolated from the herd and killed. Out of the surviving sperm whales, three are thought to have died from the wounds they sustained and it is possible the entire herd later succumbed to its injuries.

目前关于这些虎鲸的了解还不多，唯一已知的是它们通过圆形疤痕留下来的特征性印记，这些疤痕是由圆颚鲨的咬伤所致，这表明这些高度攻击性的生物潜伏在北太平洋的深海中。

Little more than that is known about these killer whales for now, except that they are identifiable by characteristic circular scars left by bites from cookie-cutter sharks, which suggest these hyper-aggressive creatures stalk the deep waters of the north Pacific.

在科学家完全描述这些新的生态型并将其添加到海洋生物学教科书中之前，需要从外海短途虎鲸和他们在北太平洋深海中肆虐的新发现的同类那里收集更多数据，尤其是遗传数据。然而，这些发现提醒我们，生物多样性不仅仅关乎物种间的多样性，还包括物种内部的多样性。虎鲸看起来远比简单的黑与白要复杂得多。✻

More data, especially of the genetic kind, will need to be collected from both outer-coast transient killer whales as well as their newly discovered cousins terrorising the pelagic waters of the north Pacific, before scientists can fully describe the new ecotypes and add them to marine-biology textbooks. Nevertheless, the discoveries are a reminder that biodiversity is not just about the diversity between species but also within them. Killer whales seem to exist in many more shades than just black and white. ■

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亚洲 (Asia | No country for critics?)

阿尔温德·凯杰里瓦尔的监禁是印度民主的污点 (Arvind Kejriwal’s imprisonment is a stain on India’s democracy)

他是该国历史上首位被捕的现任首席部长 (He is the first sitting chief minister in the country’s history to be arrested)

距离印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪领导的一场大选仅仅三周时间，他几乎没有理由担心选举结果。他的受欢迎程度在国内外都达到了创纪录的高点。预计他领导的印度人民党(BJP)有望轻松获得连任。但政府并未轻松对待。显然他们加大了镇压异议的行动。这让许多人担心，如果莫迪先生赢得第三个任期，他可能会对反对派更加不容忍。

With just over three weeks to go until the start of a general election Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, has little reason to worry about the outcome. His popularity is at an all-time high both at home and abroad. His ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to win re-election comfortably. But the government is not resting easy. It appears to have stepped up a campaign to quash dissent. That makes many concerned that, were Mr Modi to win a third term, he may become even less tolerant of the opposition.

3月21日，印度主要两个负责调查金融犯罪的机构之一的执法司法局(ED)逮捕了阿尔温德·凯杰里瓦尔(Arvind Kejriwal)，这位德里首席部长兼反对党“人民党(AAP)”领袖，作为腐败调查的一部分。他是今年第三位被捕的反对派领袖，也是印度历史上首位在任首席部长被捕的人。ED指责他在被调查员忽略了九次传唤接受质询后拒绝与调查合作。AAP领袖否认有不当行为，并表示自己是政治报复的受害者。3月26日，他的党员们试图前往莫迪先生的家抗议时被捕。反对派计划于3月31日举行一场大规模集会。

On March 21st the Enforcement Directorate (ED), one of two main Indian agencies tasked with investigating financial crimes, arrested Arvind Kejriwal, the chief minister of Delhi and the leader of the opposition Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), as part of a corruption probe. He is the third opposition leader to be arrested this year and the first sitting chief minister to be arrested in India’s history. The ED accuses him of failing to co-operate with the probe after he ignored nine summons to be questioned by investigators. The AAP leader denies wrongdoing and says he is the victim of a political vendetta. On March 26th members of his party who were attempting to march to Mr Modi’s home in protest were arrested. A big rally by the opposition is planned for March 31st.

阅读更多有关印度选举

Read more of our coverage of the Indian election

不幸的是，这种镇压似乎是更广泛模式的一部分。在凯杰里瓦尔被捕当天，印度主要的全国性反对党国大党声称，税务当局已经冻结其银行账户，指称2017-18财政年度存在未申报的现金收入，导致其无法支付竞选开支。3月26日，德里一家法院还延长了对泰伦加邦南部州一位反对党议员的预审拘留时间，后者是本月早些时候因涉及与凯杰里瓦尔相同调查而被捕的。

This crackdown unfortunately appears to be part of a broader pattern. The same day as Mr Kejriwal’s arrest Congress, the main national opposition party, claimed that tax authorities had frozen its bank accounts over alleged undeclared cash income in the 2017-18 financial year, leaving it unable to cover campaign expenses. On March 26th a court in Delhi also extended the pre-trial custody for an opposition lawmaker from the southern state of Telangana, who was arrested earlier this month in connection with the same probe that snagged Mr Kejriwal.

同时，法院还继续推迟了来自两位其他高级AAP领导人的保释申请，两人分别因调查而被监禁六个月和13个月。没有人被提起诉讼。今年1月，ED还因涉嫌洗钱逮捕了藏有反对派东部邦负责人，他在被捕前几小时辞职。所有这些人均否认不当行为。他们将无法在即将到来的大选中进行竞选活动。

Meanwhile the courts have also continued to defer pleas for bail from two other senior AAP leaders who have been in jail as part of the probe for six and 13 months, respectively. None has been put on trial. In January the ED also arrested the chief minister of Jharkhand, an opposition-run eastern state, on allegations of money-laundering. He resigned hours before his arrest. All deny wrongdoing. They will not be able to campaign in the upcoming election.

印度人民党表示，执法机构独立于政府，只是在根除腐败方面在为职责所在。他们称，声称遭受政治阴谋的反对派政治家是在试图为他们在选举中的“即将惨败”寻找借口。即便如此，自2014年莫迪上台以来，约95%的金融犯罪调查都瞄准了反对派。相比之下，极少数印度人民党政治家受到执法机构的关注。纠缠于反腐官员的反对党政治家一旦转投印度人民党，他们的法律问题很快就被搁置或延期。

The BJP says that law-enforcement agencies are independent of the government, and are merely doing their job in rooting out corruption. It says that opposition politicians who allege a political conspiracy are trying to find excuses for their “imminent and miserable defeat” in the election. Even so, some 95% of financial-crime probes since Mr Modi took power in 2014 have targeted the opposition. By contrast few BJP politicians have found themselves in the crosshairs of law enforcement. Opposition politicians troubled by anti-corruption officials have seen their legal problems shelved or postponed as soon as they defected to the BJP.

越来越明显的是，印度人民党无法容忍任何异议。批评政府的非政府组织和智囊团已经引起当局的密切关注。媒体普遍支持印度人民党，而司法机关在选择挑战政府的方式方面越来越具有选择性。

Increasingly it looks as if the BJP is unable to brook any dissent. NGOs and think-tanks that are critical of the government have found themselves subject to close attention by the authorities. The media is broadly pro-BJP, while the judiciary is increasingly selective about how it chooses to challenge the government.

尽管针对凯杰里瓦尔等人的行动时间值得质疑，但这些调查仍然很可能对反对派造成相当大的伤害，而对莫迪政府的选举风险很小。本月早些时候披露的通过“选举债券”进行的有争议的企业捐款，并未激起选民或反腐官员的反应，尽管它们主要是给了印度人民党。莫迪先生仍然备受欢迎，最近一项调查显示，78%的受访者对他表示赞成。即使在最近的打击行动之前，他仍然会轻松赢得一场民主选举。■

Despite the questionable timing of the moves against Mr Kejriwal and others, the probes are still likely to inflict considerable damage on the opposition, while posing little electoral risk to Mr Modi’s government. Disclosures earlier this month of controversial corporate donations through “electoral bonds”, which the Supreme Court ordered in February, have not roused voters or anti-corruption officials, despite the fact they were largely to the BJP. Mr Modi remains incredibly popular, with fully 78% of those polled in a recent survey approving of him. He would easily win a democratic election, even without the recent crackdown. ■

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亚洲 | 伊姆兰·汗入狱 (Asia | Imran Khan in prison)

巴基斯坦接下来会怎样? (What next for Pakistan?)

新政府面临两极化的政治、经济困境和恐怖威胁。 (The new government faces polarised politics, a faltering economy and terrorist threats)

监狱是巴基斯坦的公民领袖们敢于挑战该国将军的一种成年仪式。近期，伊姆兰·汗正在拉瓦尔品迪的阿迪亚拉监狱度过自己的苦修日子。今年早些时候，法官们因宗教、腐败和国家安全指控判处这位71岁的前板球手转型为民粹政治家31年。尽管他的政党巴基斯坦正义运动（PTI）在2月的选举中赢得比任何竞争对手更多的全国议会席位，但据他的姐姐Aleema说，他“情绪极其高涨”。作为一名常客，他花时间在牢房里骑着固定自行车阅读和保持健康。

A stint in jail is a rite of passage for civilian Pakistani leaders bold enough to challenge the country’s generals. Imran Khan is doing his penance these days in Rawalpindi’s Adiala jail. Judges sentenced the 71-year-old former cricketer turned populist politician to 31 years earlier this year after convictions on religious, corruption and national-security charges. Because candidates allied with his party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), managed nonetheless to win more national-assembly seats in February’s election than any rival party, Mr Khan is in “extremely high spirits”, says his sister Aleema, a regular visitor. He passes his time reading and keeping fit on a stationary bike in his cell.

汗在原地拼命骑行的形象似乎是对巴基斯坦选举后政治的一个恰当隐喻。PTI在选举中的意外成功显示出该政党在压力下的韧性。然而，尽管它已设法组建应在开伯敏瓦省的一省政府，PTI的领导人在其他方面却被边缘化。总理Shehbaz Sharif从巴基斯坦武装部队委婉地称为“机构”得到坚定支持。他现在领导着一个以他家族的世袭政党巴基斯坦穆斯林联盟-纳瓦兹（PML-N）为中流砥柱的少数民族全国政府。Sharif最近为一组技术官员和传统政治家制定了最后的内阁名单。经过两年的动荡，他可能希望平静一些。

The image of Mr Khan pedalling furiously while stuck in place seems an apt metaphor for Pakistan’s post-election politics. PTI’s unexpected success at the polls demonstrated the party’s resilience under pressure. Yet while it has managed to form one provincial government, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, PTI’s leaders are otherwise marginalised. Shehbaz Sharif, the prime minister, enjoys firm backing from “the establishment”, as Pakistan’s armed forces are euphemistically known. He now leads a minority national administration anchored in his family’s dynastic party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). Mr Sharif recently put the finishing touches to a cabinet of technocrats and traditional politicians. After two tumultuous years, he could be forgiven for hoping for calm.

但他可能发现这很难。Sharif 的政府在未来几个月面临三大挑战。第一个挑战是Khan决心推翻现状，即使在监狱里。PTI领导人对今年二月选举中的选举舞弊的指控感到愤怒，他们表示将通过国会、法院和和平街头抗议来寻求救济。他们的目标包括举行新选举，并赋予Khan和其他被关押的领导人自由。前PTI省部长Taimur Jhagra表示：“我毫无疑问，并且我认为党非常有信心，这次选举的所谓结果将会推翻”，他指的是该党向法院提交的选举舞弊证据。

But he is likely to find it elusive. Mr Sharif’s government faces three challenges in the coming months. The first is that Mr Khan is determined to overturn the status quo, even from prison. Outraged by allegations of vote-rigging during the February vote, PTI leaders say they will seek redress in parliament, the courts and through peaceful street protests. Their goals include a new election and liberty for Mr Khan and other jailed leaders. “I have no doubt—and I think the party feels very confident—the so-called result of this election will be overturned,” says Taimur Jhagra, a former PTI provincial minister, referring to the evidence of vote fraud that the party is submitting to the courts.

然而，巴基斯坦的法官在重大政治事务上很少挑衅军方的偏好。自二月以来，政府利用社交媒体封锁和警察的压倒性示威来镇压PTI的公开示威活动。强大的军方参谋长Asim Munir将军并未示意愿妥协。在最近一次高级将领会议后，军方在一份声明中指责巴基斯坦境内那些通过“情绪爆发”制造政治不稳定和不确定性的人，这明显是指PTI。

Yet Pakistan’s judges rarely defy the army’s preferences on big political matters. And since February, the government has used social-media blackouts and overwhelming shows of force by police to suppress PTI’s attempts to stage public demonstrations. General Asim Munir, the powerful army chief, is not signalling room for compromise. In a recent statement following a conference of top generals, the military denounced those in Pakistan who are “creating political instability and uncertainty” by resorting to “emotional outbursts”, a transparent reference to PTI.

即使他克服了Khan的“压力运动”，Sharif还有第二个大问题：巴基斯坦正在经历一场长达多年的经济危机。在2023年，巴基斯坦的GDP由于高债务、国际收支危机以及人均40%的高通胀而轻微萎缩，后来回落至目前的23%。在领导持续16个月的政府任内，Sharif在选举前通过从IMF获得了30亿美元备用紧急贷款来力挽狂澜。这份安排将在四月到期。Sharif和下届过渡政府因交付财政盈余而获得赞誉。但他们未能推进巴基斯坦长期需要的深层次改革，比如清理负债累累的国有企业或扩大税收范围。

Even if he overcomes Mr Khan’s pressure campaign, Mr Sharif has a second big problem: Pakistan’s volatile economy, which is in the middle of a multi-year crisis. GDP shrank slightly in 2023 amid high debt, a balance-of-payments crisis and inflation that peaked at near 40% before falling back to its current rate of 23%. Before the election, while heading a government that lasted 16 months, Mr Sharif staved off disaster by securing a $3bn stand-by emergency loan from the IMF. That arrangement expires in April. Mr Sharif and a successor caretaker administration earned credit for delivering a primary fiscal surplus. But they were unable to advance the deep reforms that Pakistan has long needed, such as privatisation of state-owned enterprises saddled with zombie debt or an expansion of the tax net.

人们预期新政府将再次向IMF寻求更大规模和长期的援助。如果达成协议，这将是巴基斯坦77年历史上的第二十五次IMF紧急援助，将该国列入最浪费基金借款者之一。有人毫无疑问，新的多年协议是可行的，金额可能在60亿美元左右。曾任2022年财政部长的Miftah Ismail指出：“即使我们的敌人也不希望我们失败或违约”。新的IMF方案将致力于减少巴基斯坦令人震惊的债务水平，一些分析师现在认为这种债务水平已经不可持续。

The new government is expected to return to the IMF for a larger and longer-term package. If agreed it would be the 25th IMF bail-out in Pakistan’s 77-year history, placing the country among the most profligate of fund borrowers. There seems little doubt that a new multi-year arrangement is attainable, perhaps in the range of $6bn. “Even our enemies don’t want us to fail or default,” notes Miftah Ismail, who served as finance minister during 2022. A new IMF programme will seek to reduce Pakistan’s staggering debt levels, which some analysts now regard as unsustainable.

作为一个拥有2.42亿人口的核武装国家，巴基斯坦确实太大而不能失败。然而，这只增强了宽慰和腐败，鼓励其领导人依赖紧急外部融资和临时财政调整，而不愿意接受经济结构调整。

As a nuclear-armed nation of 242m, Pakistan is indeed too big to fail. Yet this has only entrenched complacency and corruption, encouraging its leaders to rely on emergency external finance and temporary fiscal adjustments rather than stomach economic restructuring.

这一次会有不同吗？Sharif通过任命巴基斯坦最大私营银行之一的沃顿公司的CEO Muhammad Aurangzeb为财政部长增加了希望。Aurangzeb承诺开展雄心勃勃的改革，并在任命后宣布，他将坚决推进执行，不进行争论，不浪费时间。但Sharif是否会给予他支持来跟进执行是不确定的。

Will this time be different? Mr Sharif has raised hopes by recruiting Muhammad Aurangzeb, a Wharton-educated CEO of one of Pakistan’s largest private banks, as his finance minister. Mr Aurangzeb has pledged to carry out ambitious reforms and declared after his appointment that he would tolerate “no debates, no waste of time: just a steadfast commitment to implementation”. But whether Mr Sharif will give him the backing to follow through is uncertain.

出售负债累累的巴基斯坦国际航空公司（PIA）的计划将提供一项早期检验。四十年前，PIA提供了优质服务，超过了其在印度的国有竞争对手。但在20世纪90年代，强大的海湾竞争对手如阿联酋以及开放天空政策刺激的竞争导致该航空公司的市场份额大幅下降。截至2017年，PIA每架飞机拥有550名员工，是其目标的两倍多。该航空公司目前背负着逾30亿卢比的债务。Sharif已经启动了一项计划来清偿PIA的债务并将该公司分拆为两部分，以便将核心业务进行出售。

A plan to sell off debt-ridden Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) will provide an early test. Forty years ago PIA offered service superior to its state-owned counterparts in India. But during the 1990s, the rise of formidable Gulf competitors like Emirates, and competition stimulated by an open-skies policy, caused the carrier’s market share to crumble. By 2017 PIA had 550 employees for every aircraft, more than two-and-a-half times its target. The airline now staggers under more than $3bn-worth of rupee debts. Mr Sharif has initiated a scheme to erase PIA’s debts and split the company into two parts, so that core operations could be offered for sale.

PIA案例暗示了长期困扰该国希望现代化者的一些问题。国有企业私有化会影响到工人、他们的家庭和工会等，在政治上有着很强的联系，实际上他们否决了即使是最常识性的国有资产剥离。其它改革也涉及到更多公民，因此更加敏感。这些想法包括停止政府定价；对之前免税的零售业和农业征税；或者取消昂贵的燃油补贴。无论何时尝试这些变革，都会引发大规模抗议，社交媒体放大呼声，并仅部分自由的广播。

The PIA case hints at some of the problems that have long bedevilled would-be modernisers in the country. Privatisation of state-owned firms hits workers, their families and unions: groups that are politically well-connected and which have in effect vetoed even the most common-sense divestments of state assets. Other reforms hit many more citizens and thus are even more politically sensitive. These ideas include stopping the government fixing prices; taxing retail and agriculture, previously exempt sectors; or withdrawing expensive fuel subsidies. Whenever such changes are attempted, however, they provoke huge protests amplified by social media and only partially free broadcasters.

巴基斯坦军方管理、受限制的民主制度也阻碍了公民领袖们采取大胆措施。Khan的崛起与没落就是一个例子：2018年，军队被广泛认为是他的支持者。四年后，他们被视为Khan被撤职的背后推手。

Pakistan’s military-managed, constrained democratic set-up also prevents civilian leaders from taking bold action. Mr Khan’s rise and fall is a case in point: the armed forces were widely seen as his backers in 2018. Four years later, they were seen as being behind Mr Khan’s sacking.

对于新政府的第三挑战来自巴基斯坦塔利班运动（TTP）发动的恐怖活动。自阿富汗塔利班于2021年接管喀布尔以来，TTP在巴基斯坦的袭击激增，造成逾2200人死亡，政府数据显示。很多受害者是安全部队成员。最近一次TTP袭击发生在3月16日，自杀炸弹袭击者袭击了阿富汗边境的军事基地，造成至少七名士兵死亡。巴基斯坦战机对阿富汗内部据称是TTP目标的目标进行了报复性打击。

A third test for the new government comes in the form of a campaign of terror mounted by the Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP), the Pakistani branch of the Taliban movement. Since the Afghan Taliban’s takeover of Kabul in 2021, TTP-linked attacks in Pakistan have surged, claiming more than 2,200 lives, according to the government. Many victims have been members of the security forces. The latest TTP attack took place on March 16th when suicide-bombers hit an army base on the Afghan frontier, killing at least seven soldiers. Pakistani jets launched a retaliatory strike against alleged TTP targets inside Afghanistan.

Former Pakistan Prime Minster Imran Khan

存在着升级的严重风险。巴基斯坦指责阿富汗塔利班政权向TTP提供援助和庇护。最近的袭击之后，巴基斯坦的国防部长Khawaja Asif表示:“对我们的恐怖主义活动大部分都是从阿富汗展开的。”过去两年，巴基斯坦以多种形式试图影响在喀布尔恢复的塔利班政权。这些努力包括外交谈判、停止跨境贸易、将阿富汗难民驱逐出巴基斯坦以及采取军事行动。但这些都没有奏效。尽管阿富汗塔利班发布了禁止阿富汗人在巴基斯坦内部作战的法令，但袭击和指控喀布尔的串通仍然存在。

There exists a serious risk of escalation. Pakistan accuses Afghanistan’s Taliban regime of providing aid and sanctuary to the TTP. “Terrorism against us is mostly being conducted from Afghanistan,” Khawaja Asif, Pakistan’s defence minister, said after the latest attack. During the past two years, Pakistan has tried many forms of persuasion and coercion to influence the Taliban’s restored regime in Kabul. The efforts have included diplomatic negotiations, halting cross-border trade, expelling Afghan refugees from Pakistan and military action. None of this has worked. Although the Afghan Taliban have issued decrees banning Afghans from fighting inside Pakistan, the attacks and accusations of Kabul’s complicity persist.

Sharif长期以来一直迎合军方的要求。如何处理喀布尔的塔利班政权将由总参谋长Munir决定。与前任相比，这位陆军首脑更为缄默。一些关系密切的分析人士表示，这位将军似乎主要关注巩固巴基斯坦与中国的基石联盟以及与海湾国家，尤其是沙特阿拉伯的历史联系，在3月20日访问了沙特阿拉伯。Munir将军去年也访问了美国，由美国中央司令部主持，这是负责阿富汗和巴基斯坦的军事力量。巴基斯坦与华盛顿现在的正确但主要是交易性的关系，为其对对与中国的依赖提供了一定保障，帮助巴基斯坦在IMF处应对问题。

Mr Sharif has long accommodated the armed forces. Decisions about how to handle the Taliban regime in Kabul will fall to General Munir. The army chief is a more reticent figure than some of his predecessors. Well-connected analysts say the general seems mainly interested in shoring up Pakistan’s bedrock alliance with China and its historical ties to Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, where the general paid a visit on March 20th.

Munir将军可能还希望对该国的经济产生更大的影响。去年，他宣扬了一个由他担任的新机构，特别投资促进委员会，他说该机构将建立“一个对投资者有利的系统，避免不必要的延迟，提供商业易于接受的条款和条件”，尤其在采矿和农业方面。巴基斯坦在政治上稳定地成为投资目的地将颇具挑战，只要最受欢迎的政治家被以可疑指控关押，他的支持者大声呼吁得到补偿。

General Munir also visited America late last year, hosted by Central Command, the military force responsible for Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pakistan’s correct if largely transactional relations with Washington these days offer a modest hedge against its dependency on China and help to ease its dealings at the IMF.

巴基斯坦的悲剧在于无法维持一个可行的政治共识。“我们经济糟糕的原因在于每三年就按下一枚自毁按钮，然后再次从零开始，”前巴基斯坦正义运动（PTI）省级部长贾格拉先生说道。然而，认识到问题与解决问题是两回事。事实是，如果总理汗希望实现政治复兴，他很可能需要获得穆尼尔将军的祝福，或者与其他主要的民政党达成和解协议。但这两种可能性都不太可行。

General Munir may also want more influence over the country’s economy. Last year he touted a new body, the Special Investment Facilitation Council, on which he sits, that he said would create “an investor-friendly system that avoids unnecessary delays and provides easy terms and conditions for business”, particularly in mining and agriculture. The apparent purpose is to attract direct investment from Gulf sovereign-wealth funds and elsewhere. Yet it will be hard for Pakistan to advertise itself as a stable destination for investment as long as its most popular politician is locked up on dubious charges and his supporters clamour for redress.

汗先生的魅力与反抗精神给他的政党和国家带来了一场过山车般的旅程。在监狱中，他最近告诉他的姐姐：“我很忙，正在获取知识”，通过阅读历史、政治和苏非主义等方面。也许汗先生可以通过与将军和对手政客分享这些新领悟，帮助克服国家的功能障碍。他可以从鲁米这位最著名的苏非诗人开始：“昨日我足智多谋，想要改变世界。今日我深谋远虑，所以改变自己。” ■

Pakistan’s tragedy has been its inability to sustain a workable political consensus. “The reason our economy stinks is that every three years we press a self-destruct button and start from zero again,” says Mr Jhagra, the former PTI provincial minister. But it is one thing to be aware of the problem and another to solve it. The reality is that if Mr Khan wishes to achieve political rehabilitation, he would probably require either General Munir’s blessing or a reconciliation pact with other major civilian parties. Neither seems likely.

Mr Khan’s charisma and defiance has delivered a rollercoaster ride to his party and his country. During his sojourn in prison, he recently told his sister, “I’m really busy getting knowledge” by reading about history, politics and Sufism. Perhaps Mr Khan can help overcome his country’s dysfunction by sharing new-found insights with generals and rival politicians. He might start with Rumi, the best-known Sufi poet: “Yesterday I was so clever, so I wanted to change the world. Today I am wise, so I am changing myself.” ■

回到目录

亚洲 | 榕树 (Asia | Banyan)

越南国家元首因种种问题离职 (Vietnam’s head of state leaves under a cloud)

投资者应担心该国政治状况。 (Investors should worry about the state of the country’s politics)

越南共产党是地球上最神秘的组织之一。它展示给自己的人民和世界看的正面是慎重、符合、和谐秩序。因此，去年初失去一位国家元首，以贪污之名下台，实在有些草率。在三月底再失去一位，Vo Van Thuong，就真的令人不安了。这不只关乎普通的越南人。外国投资者也应该关心，他们将越南视为东南亚最火爆的经济体。

The Communist Party of Vietnam is among the most secretive bodies on Earth. The façade it presents to its own people and to the world is one of circumspection, conformity and consensual order. So to lose one head of state early last year, departing under a cloud of corruption, was careless. To lose a second, Vo Van Thuong, in late March is downright disconcerting. It is not just ordinary Vietnamese who should care. So, too, should foreign investors, who have bet big on Vietnam as the hottest economy in South-East Asia.

Thuong爷爷50多岁，是有史以来最年轻的总统。作为宣传高手，他以为自己前程一片光明。他接替了Nguyen Xuan Phuc，后者在去年一月因涉及疫情检测试剂盗窃事件辞职（他坚称他和他的家人都未参与其中）。Thuong爷爷热爱公众形象。但是越南要求荷兰国王和王后的访问计划被突然取消。然后，在3月20日，党的中央委员会表示Thuong爷爷已辞去一切职务。他的“违规和缺点”给党的声誉留下了“污点”。现任副总统Vo Thi Anh Xuan，作为上层少见的女性代理。自那以后，Thuong爷爷音讯全无。

Mr Thuong, in his early 50s, was the youngest-ever president. A propaganda whizz, he thought he was going places. He succeeded Nguyen Xuan Phuc, who resigned in January last year after taking responsibility for a scam involving pandemic testing kits (he insists neither he nor his family were involved). Mr Thuong relished his public role. But a planned visit to Vietnam by the king and queen of the Netherlands was abruptly cancelled at Vietnam’s request. Then, on March 20th, the party’s central committee said Mr Thuong had resigned from all posts. His “violations and shortcomings” had left “a bad mark” on the party’s reputation. The vice-president, Vo Thi Anh Xuan, a rare woman in the upper echelons, is standing in for now. Mr Thuong has not been heard of since.

确实，总统仅仅是四大关键职位之一。权力通常分布在四个“支柱”之间：党的总书记（最重要的职位），总理（领导政府），总统和全国人民代表大会主席。目前的总书记是Nguyen Phu Trong。他自2011年以来一直担任此职，这是个例外。他已年近80岁，很可能会在2026年的下次党代表大会上退下来——如果传言中的健康状况让他撑到那时的话。任何掩盖幕墙背后的动荡，必须视为谁将继任他的上下文。

To be sure, the presidency is only one of four key positions. Authority is usually spread among four “pillars”: the general secretary of the party (the most important post), the prime minister (running the government), the president and the speaker of the National Assembly. The current general secretary is Nguyen Phu Trong. He has, exceptionally, been in the post since 2011. He is nearly 80 and will surely step down at the next party congress in 2026—if rumoured ill health allows him that long. Any ructions behind the façade must be viewed in the context of who succeeds him.

Trong先生的主要原则是，在不打击腐败扩散的情况下，党是无法生存的。他的“炽炉”运动已经降伏了部长、一位副总理和一串高级领导人，分别是胡志明市、河内和各省的领导人。让事情复杂化的是，强大的党内人物利用Trong先生的运动作为争夺权力的借口。

Mr Trong’s key tenet is that the party cannot survive without going after widening corruption. His “blazing furnace” campaign had already floored ministers, a deputy prime minister and a string of senior leaders in Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi and the provinces. To complicate things, powerful party figures use Mr Trong’s campaign as a pretext to jockey for power.

Thuong爷爷是Trong总书记的门生，但最终这并没有帮到他。根据新加坡ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute的研究员Le Hong Hiep的说法，Thuong爷爷所谓的错误行为，与他2011年至2014年担任广宁省党委书记的时间有关。对于地方开发商的腐败调查已使一些省官员下台。负责反腐运动核心的公安部长To Lam，一个权势巨头，可能参与了Thuong爷爷的倒台。当然，Lam将急于为自己在2026年争取最高职位。

Mr Thuong was a protégé of the general secretary’s—but in the end that did not help him. According to Le Hong Hiep of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, a research body in Singapore, Mr Thuong’s supposed wrongdoings relate to his time as party secretary of Quang Ngai province from 2011 to 2014. The investigation of corruption at a local developer has already brought down a handful of provincial officials. The powerful and ambitious minister for public security, To Lam, who is at the heart of the anti-corruption campaign, may have been involved in Mr Thuong’s fall. Certainly, Mr Lam will be keen to position himself for a grab at the top job in 2026.

美国企业代表团，包括波音和Meta在内，刚刚访问了越南。对于那些关注越南发展的人和其他人，Thuong爷爷的倒台带来了一个难题。一方面，这证实了腐败的影响已经触及党的最高层。如果正在进行的Saigon Joint Stock Commercial Bank一起涉及120亿美元诈骗案是一个标志的话，全国的腐败程度是巨大的。涉案的金额已远远超过马来西亚如今已破产的主权基金1MDB的臭名昭著的欺诈案。

A delegation of 60 American businesses, including Boeing and Meta, has just been in the country. To those and others with an interest in Vietnam’s development, Mr Thuong’s fall presents a conundrum. On the one hand it confirms that the effects of corruption reach to the very top of the party. The national extent of corruption is huge, if the trial under way of an alleged fraud of $12bn at the Saigon Joint Stock Commercial Bank is any measure. The amount alleged to have been bilked is well over twice the notorious fraud at 1MDB, Malaysia’s now-insolvent sovereign fund.

对于那些把赌注转向越南作为对抗中国在大国竞争时的一种对冲的人来说，这是一个不确定因素。每年的外国直接投资涌入越南，去年增长超过三分之一，达到366亿美元。

That is one uncertainty for those who have turned to Vietnam as a hedge against putting all business bets on China in an age of great-power rivalry between China and America. Annual foreign direct investment has been flooding in to Vietnam, rising by over a third last year, to $36.6bn.

另一方面，跨国公司知道如何在有点腐败的经济体中航行。腐败虽然成本高昂，却可以通过达成交易来推动商业的发展。此外，在越南，外国投资的制造业部门比国有导向部门的腐败要少。

On the other hand, multinationals know how to navigate somewhat corrupt economies. Corruption, for all its costs, can grease the wheels of commerce by getting deals done. Besides, in Vietnam the foreign-invested manufacturing sector is much less riven with graft than are state-directed sectors.

更糟糕的是，当改革停滞时，分析人士表示，现在正发生这种情况，官员们因为担心炽炉会找上门来而没有勇气进一步开放经济和鼓励投资。Trong先生曾说，在确保稳定的同时打击腐败就像“在不打破瓦罐的情况下抓老鼠”。老鼠们正在被抓住，但这口瓦罐能够保持完好吗？越南即将发现。■

Worse is when reform stalls—and that, analysts say, is happening now, as officials terrified that the blazing furnace will come for them lack the nerve to open up the economy further and encourage investment. Mr Trong once said that going after corruption while ensuring stability was like “catching a rat without breaking the pot”. Rats are being caught, but can the pot remain intact? Vietnam is about to find out. ■

更多来自我们的亚洲专栏作家“Banyan”：（2024年3月21日） 缅甸军政府一连串挫折带来机遇（3月21日）巴基斯坦的将军们看起来越来越绝望（3月14日）乌克兰战争对亚洲意味着什么（3月7日）

Read more from Banyan, our columnist on Asia:A string of setbacks for the junta in Myanmar presents an opportunity (Mar 21st)Pakistan’s generals look increasingly desperate (Mar 14th)What the war in Ukraine means for Asia (Mar 7th)

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亚洲 | 自命不凡 (Asia | Holier than thou)

伊斯兰国在阿富汗的分支正在与世界开战 (The Islamic State’s branch in Afghanistan is at war with the world)

声称对克罗库斯城市大厅袭击负责的组织越来越令人担忧。 (The group which claimed responsibility for the Crocus City Hall attack is increasingly worrying)

没有任何政府正式承认阿富汗的塔利班政权，部分原因是由于其对女性教育的限制是世界上最压迫的。然而，甚至塔利班对于在2014年在伊拉克和叙利亚建立“哈里发国”的组织的阿富汗分支，“伊斯兰国哈里萨斯省”（ISKP），也没有足够激进。ISKP的宣传者嘲弄塔利班是向西方出卖，因为他们与非伊斯兰外交官会面并允许非信仰者提供援助等罪行。

No government formally recognises the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, partly because its restrictions on female education are the world’s most oppressive. Yet even the Taliban are not radical enough for the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), an offshoot in Afghanistan of the group that established a “caliphate” in Iraq and Syria in 2014. ISKP propagandists rubbish the Taliban as sell-outs to the West because, among other sins, they meet non-Islamic diplomats and allow unbelievers to supply aid.

在其九年的存在期间，ISKP主要杀害了阿富汗人。该组织的全球野心于3月22日爆发，当时至少有四名枪手在莫斯科的音乐会上杀害了139人。美国官员指责ISKP发动了这次袭击；俄罗斯后来逮捕了来自塔吉克斯坦的嫌疑人。如果这些指控被证实，它们将突显该组织在阿富汗以外扩大袭击记录。ISKP树立了一长串敌人，包括美国和中国。今年1月，其新兵袭击了土耳其的一座教堂，并实施了几十年来伊朗最致命的恐怖袭击。两名嫌疑人在前往俄罗斯之前曾在土耳其停留。土耳其政府表示已经进行了一波逮捕。

During its nine-year existence, ISKP has mainly killed Afghans. The group’s global ambitions burst into view on March 22nd, when at least four gunmen killed 139 people at a concert in Moscow. American officials blamed ISKP for the attack; Russia later arrested suspects from Tajikistan. If the charges are proved they will underscore the group’s expanding record of strikes beyond Afghanistan. It cultivates a long list of enemies, including America and China. In January its recruits hit a church in Turkey and carried out the deadliest terrorist attack in Iran in decades. Two of the suspects spent time in Turkey before travelling to Russia. The Turkish government says that it has made a wave of arrests.

俄罗斯成为ISKP的目标，因为俄罗斯在喀布尔设有大使馆，并接受了塔利班在莫斯科的军事武官。俄罗斯还向叙利亚提供援助，叙利亚政权帮助摧毁了ISKP的母组织。莫斯科的袭击也可能反映了ISKP在招募塔吉克人、乌兹别克人和哈萨克人方面的努力。该组织的内部媒体机构阿尔-阿扎伊姆（al-Azaim）用中亚语言发布内容。根据联合国的说法，直到去年被捕，塔吉克激进分子阿布·米斯金曾是其“最活跃的宣传者和高级招募人之一”。

Russia is in ISKP’s crosshairs because it maintains an embassy in Kabul and has accepted a Taliban military attaché in Moscow. It also provides aid to Syria, where Bashar al-Assad’s regime helped dismantle ISKP’s parent organisation. The attack in Moscow may also reflect ISKP’s recruiting among Tajiks, Uzbeks and Kazakhs. The group’s in-house media arm, al-Azaim, distributes content in Central Asian languages. Until his arrest last year, Abu Miskin, a Tajik militant, was among its “most active propagandists and high-ranking recruiters”, according to the UN.

ISKP的实力估计从不到2000到5000人不等。塔利班的进攻夺回了该组织曾在阿富汗控制的领土。据伊斯兰堡团体哈拉萨日记（Khorasan Diary）的研究主任瑞卡多·瓦莱称，ISKP当今的实力在于“其能够找到并连接少数不满的人群”。目前的领导人据信是阿拉伯血统的29岁的沙哈布·穆哈吉尔。他很少露面，但可以肯定他的这个松散组织现在将处于全球关注的中心。 ■

Estimates of the ISKP’s strength vary from fewer than 2,000 to 5,000. Taliban offensives have taken back territory the group once held in Afghanistan. According to Riccardo Valle, director of research at Khorasan Diary, an Islamabad-based group, ISKP’s strength these days is “its ability to find and connect with small numbers of disaffected people”. The current leader is believed to be Shahab al-Muhajir, a 29-year-old of Arab descent. He is rarely heard from, but he can be certain that his disparate organisation will now be at the centre of global attention. ■

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文化 | 一种不同类型的艺术盗窃 (Culture | A different sort of art heist)

博物馆的门票越来越贵 (Museums are becoming more expensive)

会否减少未来的赞助和参观人数？ (Will it kill off future patronage and attendance?)

“博物馆免费几乎是一种道德责任，”现代艺术博物馆（MoMA）馆长格伦·洛瑞（Glenn Lowry）在2002年说过。当时，参观MoMA需要12美元（今天的价格约为19美元）。今年10月，MoMA开始收取30美元的门票费用，这是一系列涨价中的最新一项。

“It’s almost a moral duty that museums should be free,” said Glenn Lowry, director of the Museum of Modern Art (MoMA). That was in 2002, when a ticket to MoMA cost $12 (around $19 in today’s prices). In October MoMA started charging $30, the latest in a series of price rises.

MoMA并非唯一提高门票价格的博物馆。纽约的大都会博物馆（Metropolitan Museum）在2018年取消了向外地游客长期实施的“随你意愿支付”政策，将他们的一般入场费提高至30美元。去年夏天，旧金山现代艺术博物馆、费城美术馆、惠特尼博物馆和古根海姆博物馆也纷纷效仿，将标准门票价格从25美元调至30美元。

MoMA is not the only museum raising the cost of admission. The Metropolitan Museum in New York ended its longstanding “pay what you will” policy for out-of-town visitors in 2018 and raised general admission for them to $30 in 2022. Last summer the San Francisco Museum of Modern Art, the Philadelphia Museum of Art, the Whitney Museum and the Guggenheim Museum all followed suit, bumping a standard ticket from $25 to $30.

博物馆工作人员抱怨成本不断攀升，还有一些“长期的新冠疫情后遗症”。在美国，只有三分之一的博物馆达到或超过疫情前的游客人数。欧洲的能源和劳动力成本上升也推高了门票价格。今年1月，柏林国家博物馆、卢浮宫和梵蒂冈博物馆（包括西斯汀礼拜堂）分别将一般入场门票价格提高了20%、29%和17%。仅有亚洲和中东的博物馆价格保持稳定，那里的博物馆更年轻，国家资助也格外慷慨。

Museum staff complain of climbing costs and a case of “long covid”. In America only a third of museums have met or surpassed pre-pandemic visitor numbers. Higher energy and labour costs have pushed up ticket prices in Europe, too. In January the Berlin State Museums, the Louvre and the Vatican Museums, which include the Sistine Chapel, raised the price of general-admission tickets by 20%, 29% and 17%, respectively. Prices have remained stable only in Asia and the Middle East, where museums are younger and state funding is especially generous.

门票费或许看起来很高，尤其是在旅游胜地，游客不太可能因为多花几美元就放弃参观。但是“无论博物馆收取多少费用，都无法覆盖运营成本，”咨询公司蒙德文化资源（Lord Cultural Resources）的董事哈维尔·希门尼斯（Javier Jimenez）表示。美国艺术博物馆协会在2018年报告称，门票销售平均仅占美国艺术博物馆总收入的7%。会员费贡献了另外7%。其余预算通常来自捐赠基金、慈善捐款、政府补助和零售业务。

Ticket fees may seem high, particularly in destination cities where tourists are not likely to be dissuaded by spending a few more dollars. But “whatever museums charge, it is not covering their operating costs,” says Javier Jimenez, a director at Lord Cultural Resources, a consulting firm. The Association of Art Museum Directors reported in 2018 that ticket sales accounted on average for just 7% of total revenue at American art museums. Memberships contributed another 7%. The remainder of budgets usually come from endowments, charitable donations, grants and retail operations.

欧洲博物馆不那么依赖门票收入，因为它们通常受到政府大额津贴的支持。这让向纳税人收取昂贵门票费用并实际上双重收费变得尴尬。许多机构选择为年轻人、退休人员和本地居民提供优惠。

European museums are less reliant on admissions fees, because they are often heavily subsidised by governments. This can make it awkward to ask taxpayers to buy a pricey ticket and in effect pay twice. Many institutions choose to offer reductions for the young, pensioners and locals.

英国所有国家机构提供免费入场，中国大多数国营博物馆也如此（特别展览除外）。在美国，约有30%的博物馆是免费的，包括史密森尼博物馆等大型公共博物馆和私人博物馆，比如洛杉矶的盖蒂中心。一些观察家重申了洛瑞先生的呼吁，认为博物馆，尤其是那些资金充裕的博物馆，应该全部停止收取门票费用。

All national institutions in Britain offer free admission, as do most state-run museums in China. (Exceptions are made for special exhibitions.) In America some 30% are free, including big public museums like those of the Smithsonian Institution and private ones such as the Getty Centre in Los Angeles. Some observers have repeated Mr Lowry’s call for museums, especially the most well-endowed, to stop charging for admission entirely.

价格飙升背离了博物馆与更多不同背景的公众分享艺术的目标。这可能会加速美国参观博物馆和画廊的比例已经陡然下降这一趋势：在2017年至2022年间，下降了26%。

Ballooning prices go against museums’ goal of sharing art with a more diverse public. They could also accelerate the already steep decline in the share of Americans attending museums and galleries: between 2017 and 2022 it shrunk by 26%.

公众兴趣的下降，特别是年轻人，对于严重依赖公众支持的机构来说是一个挑战。今天选择不参观博物馆的人可能会在几年后成为反对政府补助或拒绝向博物馆捐款的人。那些在博物馆内度过时间的人更有可能体会到博物馆的丰富，并希望以自己的财力投资其中。

Declining public interest, particularly among young people, is a challenge for institutions that rely heavily on public support. Those who choose not to visit a museum today may be the people who vote against government subsidies or refuse to write personal cheques as patrons in a few years. Those who spend time inside museums’ galleries are more likely to grasp their richness and want to invest their own riches in them.

然而，显著降低成本实际上可能不会吸引到新的受众。在美国和欧洲，人们表示，在决定如何利用其休闲时间时，价格只是多个因素之一。印第安纳大学的经济学家迈克尔·鲁斯顿（Michael Rushton）指出，就艺术领域的定价研究，如果门票免费，“那些通常会来的人可能会更加频繁地参观。否则，你其实没有改变你的受众群体。”他将博物馆比作美国的精英大学：哈佛和斯坦福能够让所有学生免费就读，但很多不需要这项资助的富裕学生将是最大的受益者。在西方各地的博物馆讨论何时收费合适时，大多数都不太可能得出答案是零，无论是否涉及“道德责任”。 ■

Yet significantly reducing costs may not actually do much to attract new audiences either. In both America and Europe, people say that price is just one of several factors when it comes to deciding what to do with their leisure time. If tickets were free, “people who typically come anyway might come more often. Otherwise, you’re not really changing your demographic,” says Michael Rushton, an economist at Indiana University who studies pricing in the arts. He compares museums to elite American universities: Harvard and Stanford could afford to make tuition free for all, but many wealthy students who do not need the gift would be among the biggest beneficiaries. As museums throughout the West debate what price is right, most are unlikely to conclude the answer is zero, “moral duty” or not. ■

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文化 | 带我去德克萨斯州 (Culture | Take me to Texas)

碧昂丝的乡村风格背后隐藏着什么? (What lies behind Beyoncé’s country turn?)

BEYONCÉ 早在二月发布了流行乡村曲目“Texas Hold ’Em”之前就已经展示了她的牌面。2021年，她推出了一款以“被忽视的美国黑人牛仔历史”为灵感的服装系列。在其2022年的专辑《Renaissance》封面上，她骑在一匹水晶马上，参加格莱美奖时则戴着一顶白色宽边帽。她的歌词经常提到她在休斯顿的成长。“赚了这么多钱，”她在2016年的歌曲“Formation”中唱道，“但他们永远无法改变她的乡土情怀”。

BEYONCÉ had shown her cards long before she released “Texas Hold ’Em”, a country-pop track, in February. In 2021 she launched a clothing collection inspired by the “overlooked history of the American black cowboy”. She sat astride a crystal horse for the album cover of “Renaissance” (2022) and wore a white, wide-brimmed hat to the Grammy awards. Her lyrics have frequently referred to her upbringing in Houston. “Earned all this money,” she sang on “Formation” in 2016, “but they never take the country out” of her.

她的新专辑《Cowboy Carter》于3月29日发布，唤起了一种霍恩基托克的氛围。这张唱片是在新冠疫情期间构思的三部曲项目中的第二部，Beyoncé在其中向黑人音乐流派的根源致敬。（在《Renaissance》中，她专注于迪斯科和浩室音乐。）

Her new album, “Cowboy Carter”, released on March 29th, evokes a honky-tonk. The record is the second instalment in a three-part project conceived during the covid-19 pandemic, in which Beyoncé pays tribute to the black roots of musical genres. (On “Renaissance” she focused on disco and house music.)

这张专辑的发布时间正如一支排舞一样恰到好处：美国本土风（Americana）在流行文化中蓬勃发展。模特们穿着蛇皮牛仔靴走上路易威登的T型台，普拉达也在销售博洛领结。像“Yellowstone”这样的西部传奇故事吸引了数百万观众。去年，美国Spotify播放量前50首歌曲的流媒体中，乡村音乐曲目占比超过三分之一，远高于2016年的2%。

The album is as perfectly timed as a line dance: Americana is flourishing in popular culture. Models have been strutting down Louis Vuitton’s catwalk wearing snakeskin cowboy boots, and Prada is selling bolo ties. Western sagas such as “Yellowstone” have drawn millions of viewers. Last year country-music tracks accounted for more than a third of streams of the top 50 songs on Spotify in America, up from 2% in 2016.

Beyoncé尝试乡村音乐的实验是艺术家跨界寻求新观众传统的一部分。Bob Dylan为了通电摇滚而抛弃了原本的民谣（并因此被称为“叛徒”）。David Bowie试穿了各种造型，创作出不同的音乐风格。Dolly Parton、Taylor Swift和Shania Twain都放弃了乡村音乐，转向流行音乐。Coldplay从之前偏向沉闷的独立摇滚风格，转向更欢快的流行和电子曲风。

Beyoncé’s experimentation with country is part of a tradition of artists crossing into new genres in search of new audiences. Bob Dylan forsook acoustic folk for electrified rock (and was called a “Judas” for his efforts). David Bowie tried on a wardrobe of looks and produced different sounds to match. Dolly Parton, Taylor Swift and Shania Twain all left country behind for mainstream pop. Coldplay have moved away from the sometimes dour indie rock of their early albums for more upbeat pop and electronic tunes.

适应新音乐趋势的人会蓬勃发展。Coldplay和Swift正在进行高收益的巡回演唱会，据估计分别带来了价值810亿美元和10亿美元，而许多同龄人已经销声匿迹。

Those who adapt to new musical trends thrive. Coldplay and Ms Swift are in the midst of lucrative concert tours—which have brought in an estimated $810m and $1bn, respectively—while many of their contemporaries have faded into obscurity.

Beyoncé也一直在不断进化来迎合不断变化的口味。在上世纪90年代，作为Destiny’s Child女子乐队的主唱，她演唱了激励女性自强的歌曲。独自一人后，她将深情的民谣交织进自己的作品中，展示她强大的声音，后来她还融入了雷鬼和陷阱音乐。

Beyoncé has also evolved to meet changing tastes. In the 1990s, as the lead singer of Destiny’s Child, a girl band, she sang rousing anthems of female empowerment. After striking out on her own, she added soulful ballads to her repertoire to show off her powerful voice and later incorporated reggae and trap.

乡村音乐让Beyoncé再次尝试全新的歌曲创作风格。在早期的R&B热门曲目中，她吹嘘有太多钱可供挥霍。相比之下，在新乡村音乐曲目“16 Carriages”中，Beyoncé的歌词更接地气：她回忆起早期事业的劳累和“过度工作和压力重重的境况”。在口吻上，这些歌曲更适合当前通货膨胀和生活成本危机的时代。

Country allows Beyoncé to experiment with a new style of songwriting again. On early R&B hits she bragged of having too much money to spend. By contrast, on “16 Carriages”, one of the new country tracks, Beyoncé’s lyrics are more down-to-earth: she remembers the toil of her early career and being “overworked and overwhelmed”. Tonally, these songs are better suited to an era of inflation and cost-of-living crises.

除了作为商业选择，跨界还允许艺术家就自身价值发表声明。比如说，Lady Gaga是一位流行音乐制作人，选择发行一张爵士标准专辑来展示她的唱功。拥有广泛音乐风格一直至关重要。在20世纪初，当唱片公司依据种族界定和推广音乐时，实验成为黑人艺术家（如Louis Armstrong）“主张自己不应被简化为刻板形象”的方式，音乐史学家Eric Weisbard表示。Beyoncé通过将才华转向多种音乐流派，展现出她在艺术上“没有局限性”。

As well as being an astute commercial choice, crossing over allows artists to make a statement about their own value. Lady Gaga, for instance, was a pop hitmaker and chose to release an album of jazz standards to prove her vocal chops. Having range has long been important. In the early 20th century, when record labels made and marketed music along racial lines, experimentation became a way for black artists such as Louis Armstrong to “assert that no one should reduce them to a stereotype”, says Eric Weisbard, a music historian. By turning her talents to a host of genres, Beyoncé is showing that she has “no limit artistically”, he adds.

“Texas Hold ’Em”一直位居美国和英国音乐榜首。但有人质疑Beyoncé的曲目是否属于正宗的乡村音乐。甚至有一家乡村音乐电台拒绝播放。在一个在很大程度上为白人所主导的流派中，这是一个充满争议的话题，乡村音乐起源于100年前，有着非裔美国人民间音乐的根基。Beyoncé希望她的作品将有助于消除“有关艺术家种族身份与音乐流派关联”的提及。她发布了一张自己骑在另一匹马上的照片，宣称：“这不是一张乡村音乐专辑，这是一张Beyoncé专辑。” ■

“Texas Hold ’Em” has been at the top of the charts in America and Britain. But some have questioned whether Beyoncé’s tracks are authentic country music. One country radio station even refused to play it. This is a fraught subject in a heavily white genre, which originated 100 years ago and has roots in African-American folk music. Beyoncé hopes her work will help to nullify “the mention of an artist’s race, as it relates to releasing genres of music”. Posting an image of her on yet another horse, she declared: “This ain’t a country album. This is a Beyoncé album.” ■

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文化 | 生存故事 (Culture | Survival stories)

你的婚姻能经得起一次海难吗？ (Could your marriage survive a shipwreck?)

关于一对夫妇在海上被困近四个月的新书“莫里斯和玛拉琳”令人深思 (“Maurice and Maralyn”, a new book about a couple stranded almost four months at sea, makes you wonder)

毛里斯和马拉琳。 作者：索菲·艾尔赫斯特。查托与温德斯；272页；18.99英镑

Maurice and Maralyn. By Sophie Elmhirst. Chatto & Windus; 272 pages; £18.99

1973年6月，一艘韩国金枪鱼捕捞船船长首次看到莫里斯和马拉琳·贝利在太平洋上漂流时，完全搞不清他们是什么。大约四个月之前，他们试图从英国航行到新西兰时，他们的船撞上了一头抹香鲸。这对夫妇被困在一个细小的充气救生筏上，系着一个脆弱的小船，靠雨水、割开龟喉的海龟、勒死的鸟和窒息的鲨鱼维持生计。无法站立，穿着已经破碎的衣服，他们的骨架似乎随时准备从肌肤里爆发出来。

When the captain of a Korean tuna-fishing ship first caught sight of Maurice and Maralyn Bailey bobbing in the Pacific Ocean in June 1973, he could not work out what they were. About four months earlier, while they were trying to sail from England to New Zealand, their boat had crashed into a sperm whale. The couple was stranded in a tiny inflatable life-raft tied to a flimsy dinghy, subsisting on rainwater, turtles whose throats they had slit, birds they strangled and sharks they suffocated. Unable to stand and wearing clothes that had disintegrated, their skeletons looked ready to burst through their skin.

奇迹般地，他们还活着。在《毛里斯和马拉琳》一书中，索菲·艾尔赫斯特（一位偶尔为《1843》、经济学人姊妹杂志贡献文章的作者）借助自己的报道、马拉琳的日记、两人出版的回忆录以及大量新闻片段，讲述了这对夫妇生存的故事——以及他们共同经历的爱情故事。

Miraculously, they were alive. In “Maurice and Maralyn”, Sophie Elmhirst (an occasional contributor to 1843, The Economist’s sister magazine) draws on her own reporting, Maralyn’s diaries, the memoirs that the two published and a trove of news clips to tell the tale of this couple’s survival—and the love story that bubbled alongside.

这对夫妇（如图）十年前在英格兰德比的一次汽车拉力赛上相遇。毛里斯年长，驾驶飞机，但孤独、笨拙，觉得自己“在做任何事情之前有很多事要处理”。马拉琳健谈、勇敢，与毛里斯不同，“似乎本能地知道如何去做事情”。他们结婚，买了房子，然后卖掉它，用这些钱买了一艘游艇。他们的梦想是成为探险家。

The pair (pictured) had met a decade earlier at a car rally in Derby, England. Maurice was older and flew planes, but was lonely, awkward and felt that he had “so much to wade through before he could doanything”. Maralyn was chatty and brave and, unlike Maurice, “seemed to know instinctively how to dothings”. They married, bought a home and then sold it, using the money to buy a yacht. Their dream was to become explorers.

他们找到了他们的冒险。但是，尽管有航海和肾上腺素，但在《毛里斯和马拉琳》中，是爱本身，“一个可怕的巧合”，使生活变得非凡。两个人选择了彼此，“更不可思议的是，这些选择必须在大致相同的时间发生”，艾尔赫斯特女士写道。

They found their adventure. But despite the seafaring and adrenaline, in “Maurice and Maralyn” it is love itself, “a terrifying fluke”, which makes life extraordinary. Two people choose and are chosen, “and, most unlikely of all, these choices must happen at roughly the same time”, Ms Elmhirst writes.

伤心之处在于，沉船之后很久。岁月流逝，疾病袭来，孤独再度降临。然而最终，毛里斯宣布自己的一生是成功的。不是因为开创性的探险或关于他们非凡生存的头条新闻，而仅仅是因为他曾爱过，也被爱过。这是最好的故事类型：一个真实的故事，绝不感情用事，节奏恰到好处。■

The heartbreak comes later, long after the shipwreck. The pair age, illness strikes, loneliness returns. In the end, though, Maurice declares his life a triumph. Not because of any pioneering expedition or headlines about their extraordinary survival, but simply because he has loved and been loved. Never sentimental and perfectly paced, this is the best sort of story: a true one.■

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文化 | 荒野之地 (Culture | Where the wild thing is)

“格鲁法洛”的全球化之路 (How “The Gruffalo” went global)

这本儿童读物，首次出版已有25年，重新定义了成功的规则 (The children’s book, first published 25 years ago, rewrote the rules for success)

当朱莉娅·唐纳森着手撰写一本儿童图书，故事中的一只小老鼠将在“深深的黑暗森林”中散步，以机智和狡猾抵御一系列捕食者时，她准备让他遇到老虎（tiger）来喝茶。唐纳森是一位英国作家，为儿童电视编写歌曲，受到了一则关于一个女孩通过说服老虎自己是森林女皇来逃过一劫的中国寓言的启发。但问题出在这里：唐纳森希望这本书用押韵的对句形式写成，而老虎(tiger)与之押韵的词并不多。她决定，为了更实际，让这只野兽的名字以“oh”音结尾。于是，借助德国插画家阿克塞尔·谢夫勒(Axel Scheffler)，儿童图书界中一只最赚钱的怪兽诞生了。

When Julia Donaldson set out to write a children’s book featuring a mouse—who would take a stroll through “the deep dark wood”, fending off a series of predators with wit and cunning—she intended him to meet a tiger for tea. Ms Donaldson, a British author who wrote songs for children’s television, had been inspired by a Chinese fable about a girl who escapes death by convincing a tiger that she is the queen of the forest. But there was a problem: Ms Donaldson wanted the book to be in rhyming couplets, and not a lot rhymes with tiger. She decided it would be more pragmatic for the beast’s name to end with the sound “oh”. And so, with the help of Axel Scheffler, a German illustrator, one of the most lucrative monsters in children’s publishing was born.

“狮身人面像”于25年前的三月出版，取得了巨大成功，以至于到处疲惫的父母们都考虑放下无趣的工作去写儿童图书。据出版商称，迄今全球销售了1160万册。唐纳森至今已出版 200 本图书，销售额达1560万英镑（1960万美元），其中以“狮身人面像”领先。

“The Gruffalo”, which was published 25 years ago in March, has achieved such great success that tired parents everywhere have considered jacking in their boring jobs to write children’s books.To date it has sold 11.6m copies worldwide, according to the publisher. Last year Ms Donaldson’s whole oeuvre—now 200 books and counting—brought in £15.6m ($19.6m) in sales, with “The Gruffalo” leading the pack.

尽管有些书让成年人脑海中无声抱怨当孩子在睡前选择它们，但“狮身人面像”读起来几乎和听起来一样有趣。 像大多数以动物为主角的寓言，它拥有一个不具体的背景和普世主题——弱者胜于强者，智取胜于蛮力——使之能够引起年轻和老年观众的共鸣。归因于谢夫勒先生的功劳，一个插画家，自具有罗尔德·达尔（Roald Dahl）合作的昆汀·布莱克（Quentin Blake）以来最具识别性的风格。谢夫勒曾说，最初的草图“被编辑认为对于小孩子来说‘太吓人’，因此我不得不使它变得更加‘圆润’和更‘可爱’。” 结果类似于莫里斯·森达克(Maurice Sendak)于1963年经典作品“野兽在哪里”中的可怕生物之一。

Whereas some books cause grown-ups to groan inwardly when a child selects them at bedtime, “The Gruffalo” is almost as fun to read aloud as it is to listen to. Like most fables featuring animals, it has an unspecific setting and universal themes—the triumph of the underdog, brains over brawn—that help it resonate with both young and old audiences. Credit is also owed to Mr Scheffler, an illustrator with the most recognisable style since Quentin Blake (who collaborated with Roald Dahl). Mr Scheffler has said initial sketches “were deemed to be ‘too scary for tiny children’ by the editor so I had to make him a bit rounder and more ‘cuddly’.” The result resembles one of the terrible creatures from Maurice Sendak’s “Where the Wild Things Are” (1963), another classic.

如今，你可以买到以“狮身人面像”命名的拖鞋、靠垫和薯片（有奶酪和洋葱味的石头牙爪，有人吗？）；买到舞台秀的门票；并通过奥斯卡奖获奖的短片，由詹姆斯·科登（James Corden）和罗比·柯尔特兰(Robbie Coltrane)配音，让蹒跚学步的孩子安静半个小时。许多粉丝认为，该书的续集“狮身人面像的孩子”——就像“教父第二部”和“壮志凌云: 阔别现代”——比原著更优秀。

Today you can buy Gruffalo-branded slippers, cushions and crisps (cheese-and-onion Gruffalo claws, anyone?); get tickets to the stage show; and keep a toddler quiet for half an hour with the Oscar-winning short film featuring the voices of James Corden and Robbie Coltrane. Many fans think that the book’s sequel, “The Gruffalo’s Child”, is—like “The Godfather Part II” and “Top Gun: Maverick”—even better than the original.

据统计，“狮身人面像”已被翻译成107种语言和方言，包括亚美尼亚语、巴斯克语、世界语、库尔德语和泰语，从而成为近年来翻译最多的儿童图书之一。英国“狮身人面像”出版商麦克米伦儿童图书的权利主管 米歇尔·杨(Michele Young)表示，只有安托万·德·圣埃克苏佩里(Antoine de Saint-Exupéry)于1943年首次出版的《小王子》，在外文版权方面发行量超过“狮身人面像”。

At the last count “The Gruffalo” has appeared in 107 languages and dialects, including Armenian, Basque, Esperanto,Kurdish and Thai, making it the second-most translated children’s book of recent times. Only “The Little Prince” by Antoine de Saint-Exupéry, first published in 1943, has racked up more foreign editions, says Michele Young, rights director at Macmillan Children’s Books, the publisher of “The Gruffalo” in Britain.

因为它的名声现在看来似乎是必然的，很容易忘记这本书最初是如何打破早期的期望的。杨女士表示，在唐纳森为其他作家“铺平道路”之前，编辑对于押韵的书感到紧张。由于诗歌通常很难翻译，很难将权利出售给国际出版商。

Because its fame now seems like a foregone conclusion, it is easy to forget that the book defied early expectations. Before Ms Donaldson “paved the way” for other authors, editors were nervous about books that rhymed, according to Ms Young. It was hard to sell the rights to international publishers, because poetry is notoriously difficult to translate.

弗拉基米尔·纳博科夫(Vladimir Nabokov)认为，翻译押韵是如此具有挑战性，以至于作家不必费心。在他翻译的《尤金·奥涅金》序言中，这部小说将亚历山大·普希金(Alexander Pushkin)的俄罗斯诗歌翻译成英文散文，这位小说家阐述了他的信仰，即翻译应尽可能忠实于原文。“在保留韵律的情况下，又要完全翻译整首诗，从数学上讲是不可能的”，他写道。令人欣慰的是，忽略纳博科夫的请求，大多数翻译“狮身人面像”的人选择了借鉴亚历山大·庞普(Alexander Pope)等诗人，而非力求形似的翻译方式。

Vladimir Nabokov thought translating rhyme was so challenging that writers should not bother. In the introduction to his translation of “Eugene Onegin”, which rendered Alexander Pushkin’s Russian verse into English prose, the novelist spelt out his belief that translators should be as faithful to the original text as possible. “To reproduce the rhymes and yet translate the entire poem literally is mathematically impossible,” he wrote. Happily for children and parents who do not speak English, most translators of “The Gruffalo” ignored Nabokov’s pleas. Instead they have chosen to channel poets such as Alexander Pope, whose translation of Homer’s “Iliad” captures the spirit of the original rather than striving for verisimilitude.

与妻子娜迪娅·富达(Nadia Fouda)一起将“狮身人面像”翻译成阿拉伯语的安迪·斯马特(Andy Smart)将他们的工作方法精炼为“保持情绪，保持押韵，不失幽默”。他们的阿拉伯语版本将图片翻转，这样可以从右到左阅读，并是为数不多的几个改变了狮身人面像名称的版本之一：“格哈福尔”，这是一个虚构的词，借鉴了“食尸鬼”，因为这在阿拉伯语中更容易押韵。

Andy Smart, who translated “The Gruffalo” into Arabic with his wife, Nadia Fouda, distilled the pair’s modus operandi to: “Keep the mood, keep the rhyme, don’t lose the humour.” Their version, in which the pictures have been flipped so it can be read from right to left, is one of the few to change the name of the Gruffalo: to “Gharfoul”, a made-up word drawing on “ghoul”, because it was easier to rhyme in Arabic.

为了让句子押韵和合拍，并结合译者对文本的个性化处理，会带来愉悦的变化。例如，唐纳森原著英文中的最后一句是“老鼠找到了一颗坚果，这坚果很好”，意大利版的老鼠结尾独白为：“Mmmh，è squisita！Che bella giornata! Che dolce è la vita！（“嗯，太美味了。多美好的一天！生活是多么甜美！”）。

The need to make lines rhyme and scan, coupled with a translator’s desire to give their own spin to the text, leads to delightful variations. Whereas Ms Donaldson’s last line in the original English is “The mouse found a nut and the nut was good”, the Italian mouse gets a closing soliloquy: “Mmmh, è squisita! Che bella giornata! Che dolce è la vita!” (“Mmm, it’s delicious. What a beautiful day! How sweet life is!”).

狮身人面像的鉴赏家可以通过观察老鼠声称的狮身人面像最爱的食物之间的差异来寻找乐趣，以此成功吓跑捕食者。在德语版本中，“roasted fox”成为“Fuchsspieß”（狐狸烤肉串）。日本翻译将“scrambled snake”（炒蛇肉）改为“蛇kabayaki”，这是一道传统炖烤鱼的菜式，而在法语版本中则成为“crème de serpent”（“蛇奶油”）。这些当地化的改编使“狮身人面像”成为一个完美的睡前享受，无论你身在何处。 ■

Gruffalo connoisseurs can have fun spotting the differences between what the mouse claims are the Gruffalo’s favourite foods, in a successful ploy to scare off predators. In the German version, “roasted fox” becomes “Fuchsspieß” (fox kebab). The Japanese translator has turned “scrambled snake” into “snake kabayaki”, adapting a traditional dish of grilled fish, while in the French version it becomes “crème de serpent”(“cream of snake”). Such local adaptation makes “The Gruffalo” a perfect treatbefore bed, wherever you are. ■

图片来源：The Gruffalo © Julia Donaldson and Axel Scheffler 1999, 2019, 2024 - Macmillan Children’s Books

Picture credit: The Gruffalo © Julia Donaldson and Axel Scheffler 1999, 2019, 2024 - Macmillan Children’s Books

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文化 | 不平等 (Culture | Inequality)

废除富人的错误论据 (The fallacious case for abolishing the rich)

对收入和财富上限的论点是简单、激动人心，但是错误的。 (Arguments for caps on income and wealth are simple, rousing and wrong)

限制主义。 作者：Ingrid Robeyns。 Astra House；336页；售价28美元。Allen Lane；25英镑

Limitarianism. By Ingrid Robeyns. Astra House; 336 pages; $28. Allen Lane; £25

足够。 作者：Luke Hildyard。 冥王星出版社； 160页；售价19.95美元和14.99英镑

Enough. By Luke Hildyard. Pluto Press; 160 pages; $19.95 and £14.99

两本新书主张消除富人。但并非波尔布特式地将他们全部杀掉，因为作者一个是荷兰伦理学教授，另一个是左翼英国智库的主任，他们十分友善。相反，他们支持那些会令人“太多”金钱成为不可能的政策。

Two new books argue for doing away with the rich. Not in the Pol Pot sense of murdering them all, for the writers—a Dutch professor of ethics and the director of a left-wing British think-tank—are impeccably nice. Rather, they favour policies that would make it impossible to have “too much” money.

太多是多少呢？荷兰乌得勒支大学的Ingrid Robeyns是《限制主义》一书的作者，她认为政府应该阻止任何人积累超过1000万美元（或英镑，或欧元；这是一个粗略数字）。除了这个严格的“政治上的限制”，她认为还应该有一个更低的“伦理限制”。在那些国家里，政府支付医疗保健和养老金，没有人应该存储超过100万美元，并且社会应该鄙视那些这样做的人。

How much is too much? Ingrid Robeyns of Utrecht University in the Netherlands, the author of “Limitarianism”, thinks the state should prevent anyone from accumulating more than $10m (or pounds, or euros; it is a rough figure). In addition to this hard “political limit”, she thinks there should be a much lower “ethical limit”. In countries where the state pays for health care and pensions, no one should amass more than $1m in savings, and society should scorn anyone who does.

Luke Hildyard是伦敦的High Pay Centre的负责人，他的书名为“足够”，他没有提出“绝对上限”，但建议接近这个概念。他认为没有人应该赚得比目前进入最顶尖1%的纳税人阈值更多。在2021-2022年，英国这个门槛超过18万英镑；在美国2021年约为33万美元。他声称，重新分配超过这个点的额外收入或财富，或者制定政策以使这样的财富根本不会产生，“没有真正的负面影响”。

Luke Hildyard, who runs the High Pay Centre in London and whose book is called “Enough”, stops short of an “absolute cap” but suggests something close to it. No one should earn more than the current threshold for entering the top 1% of taxpayers, he believes. (In Britain that was over £180,000 a year in 2021-22; in America it was about $330,000 in 2021.) Redistributing additional income or wealth beyond this point, or enacting policies so that such riches never accrue in the first place, “has no real downsides”, he claims.

作者提出许多憎恶富人的原因。他们对环境有害，使用私人飞机，偶尔去太空度假。拥有多套住房导致住房短缺。其中一些人购买政治影响力。有些人通过腐败手段获得财富。实事求是的人可能直接解决这些问题，比如对碳排放征税、允许建更多房屋，加强竞选财政法律或打击腐败。但对于Robeyns女士和Hildyard先生来说，一切取决于缩小富人。

The authors offer many reasons for loathing the loaded. They are bad for the environment, with their private jets and occasional holidays in space. They aggravate housing shortages by owning multiple homes. Some of them buy political influence. Some acquired their wealth corruptly. A pragmatist might tackle these problems directly, by taxing carbon emissions, allowing more homes to be built, tightening campaign-finance laws or cracking down on corruption. But for Ms Robeyns and Mr Hildyard, everything depends on cutting the rich down to size.

他们合理地指出，对于贫困人口而言，额外1000美元的边际效益要大于富人。一个饥饿的家庭可以买到几个月的食物；一个银行家可能在一顿晚餐上花费这个金额，并不包括葡萄酒。然而作者进一步指出，把不平等问题归咎于许多罪恶。他们争辩道，一个更加平等的社会会减轻压力（没有激烈竞争！）并增强凝聚力（减少嫉妒！）。富人囤积的资金可以用来帮助穷人，并改善公共服务。

They make the reasonable point that the marginal benefit of an extra $1,000 is greater for the poor than the rich. A hungry family could buy food for months; a banker might blow that amount on a single dinner, not including the wine. The authors go further, though, blaming rising inequality for a host of ills. A radically more equal society would be less stressed, they argue (no rat race!) and more cohesive (less envy!). The money hoarded by the rich could be used to uplift the poor and improve public services.

Hildyard先生更简洁地表达了这些观点，并带有幽默感。他讲的那段关于用多少英镑纸币来覆盖英国每一层地板的想法，也使得这位评论员微笑，就像他对毫无意义的奢侈品价格的思索一样。英国喜欢与名人一起在车里唱卡拉OK的喜剧演员James Corden在你的生日派对上出现一小时的费用，似乎和半公斤cocaine差不多昂贵。

Mr Hildyard makes these points more concisely—and with flashes of wit. His riff about how many banknotes it would take to cover every floor in Britain—£1.7trn ($2.1trn) in fivers—made this reviewer smile, as did his musing on the relative prices of pointless luxuries. A one-hour guest appearance at your birthday party by James Corden, a British comedian who likes to sing karaoke in cars with celebrities, is about as costly as a half-kilo of cocaine, apparently.

然而，在实际操作上，两本书都有待改进。究竟如何废除富人？在其他措施中，Hildyard先生倾向于设立最高工资和沉重的财富税。Robeyns女士表示，这需要一系列政策，并对那些试图过分简化她的想法的人感到恼火，因为他们描述她的想法为100%的边际税率。但是，如果她认真当她说1000万美元应该“尽可能是一个严格的限制”的时候，这就暗示着接近100%的边际税率。

When it comes to practicalities, however, both books lose their grip. How, exactly, can one abolish the rich? Mr Hildyard favours a maximum wage and a hefty wealth tax, among other measures. Ms Robeyns says it will require a patchwork of policies and is irritated by those who try to oversimplify her idea by describing it as a marginal tax rate of 100%. But if she is serious when she says that $10m should be “as hard a limit as possible”, that implies something very close to a marginal tax rate of 100%.

这样的政策将引发空前规模的逃税。聪明的顾问会竭尽全力帮助富人隐藏他们的财富或将其转移到友好的管辖区。如果不幸中的幸运，政府设法阻止这种把戏，那么许多富人将选择移民。如果所有政府采用类似的禁止财富的政策并加强执法，如作者所期望的那样，后果将更糟。

Such a policy would provoke tax-avoidance on an epic scale. Brainy advisers would strain every synapse to help rich folk hide their wealth or shift it to friendlier jurisdictions. If, against the odds, a government managed to thwart such tricks, many rich folk would emigrate. And if governments all adopted similar wealth-banning policies and enforcement was tight, as the authors desire, the effects would be even worse.

想象一个世界，在这个世界里，一年赚超过18万英镑，或一生赚1000万美元以上就会被没收。高效能的人，比如外科医生和工程师，更不用说像J.K.罗琳这样的语文大师，超过这个点后就没有了经济动力去继续工作。也许有些人会因利他主义或对工作的热爱而继续努力工作。但许多人可能会诱惑着放松下来，剥夺世界他们卓越的技能、动力和想象力。

Imagine a world where any gain above £180,000 a year, or $10m over a lifetime, was forfeit. Highly productive people—such as surgeons and engineers, never mind word wizards like J.K. Rowling—would have no financial incentive to keep working after that point was passed. Perhaps some would carry on toiling out of altruism or for the love of the job. But many would be tempted to kick back, relax and deprive the world of their exceptional skills, drive and imagination.

此外，考虑这种制度对企业家所创造的激励。你有一个更好的捕鼠夹的创意。在旧系统下，你可以抵押你的房子来筹集建造捕鼠夹工厂的资金，希望赚大钱。而在新系统下，你必须承担同样的风险（比如失去你的家），却只有一小部分的回报。

Consider, too, the incentives such a system would create for entrepreneurs. You have an idea for a better mousetrap. Under the old system, you might mortgage your house to raise cash to build a mousetrap factory, in the hope of making a fortune. Under the new system, you must shoulder the same risks (such as losing your home), for a small fraction of the rewards.

可能产生巨大创意的想法会停滞不前。即使你的捕鼠夹非常好，可以合理地期望全世界都会来向你敲门，但借钱扩大生产是不明智的。尝试建立全球企业的金融风险落在你身上。而回报却流入了别人的口袋。只有傻瓜才会接受这样的赌注。

Potentially big ideas would stay small. Even if your mousetrap is so good that the world might reasonably be expected to beat a path to your door, it would be irrational to borrow money to expand production. The financial risks of trying to build a global business fall on you. The rewards go to someone else. Only a mug would take such a bet.

或者政治家，用别人的钱来打赌。事实上，大多数需要大量资本的项目——从芯片工厂到海上风力发电场——可能都必须由国家拥有或支持。由于上个世纪以来国有企业的记录一直充满着裙带关系、笨重和低效，这应该让这些作者再三考虑。

Or a politician, betting with other people’s money. Indeed, most ventures that required hefty capital upfront—from chip factories to offshore wind farms—would probably have to be owned or backed by the state. Since the record of state-run industries over the past century has been one of cronyism, sluggishness and inefficiency, this ought to have given the authors pause.

与左翼许多人一样，他们忽略了过去几十年来全球贫困的巨大降低，聚焦于国家内部的不平等，他们确信这是由于资本主义的不公造成的。但真的吗？联邦储备银行纽约分行的经济学家马克辛·平科夫斯基和其合著者在三月份发表了新的估算，指出在1980年至2019年间全球不平等大幅下降，而自上世纪90年代以来国家内部的不平等几乎没有变化。（尽管资产价格的飙升后来增加了财富不平等。）

Like many on the left, they gloss over the huge fall in global poverty over the past few decades and focus on inequality within countries, which they are sure is rising inexorably thanks to the unfairness of capitalism. But is it? In March Maxim Pinkovskiy, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and his co-authors published new estimates suggesting that global inequality fell dramatically between 1980 and 2019 and that inequality within countries had barely budged since the 1990s. (Though an asset-price boom later increased wealth inequality.)

或许在一些地方，对更多的再分配仍然有合理的理由。但在瑞典乌普萨拉大学的雅各布·伦德伯格对2017年的27个富裕国家进行研究发现，其中五个国家（奥地利、比利时、丹麦、芬兰和瑞典）的情况已经不妙。也就是说，它们的最高税率已经如此之高——例如在瑞典达到了约70%，如果削减税率，政府会筹集更多资金。

There may still be a reasonable case for more redistribution, at least in some places. But in a study of 27 rich countries in 2017, Jacob Lundberg of Uppsala University in Sweden found that five (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland and Sweden) were already on the wrong side of the Laffer curve. That is, their top tax rates were so high—adding up to around 70% in Sweden, for example—that their governments would raise more money if they cut them.

认为政府可能会从比瑞典更高的税率中找到更多现金是妄想的。路易十四的财政大臣尚-巴蒂斯特·柯尔伯说：“征税的艺术在于轻柔地拔掉鹅的羽毛，以尽可能少的嘶嘶声获得最多的羽毛。”他没有补充说：“除非是大鹅，那么就掐死它。” ■

The idea that governments might find a lot more cash from tax rates higher than Sweden’s is delusional. Jean-Baptiste Colbert, Louis XIV’s finance minister, said that “the art of taxation consists in so plucking the goose as to procure the largest quantity of feathers with the least possible amount of hissing.” He did not add: “unless it’s a big goose, in which case strangle it.” ■

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文化 | 世界一菜 (Culture | World in a dish)

莫萨卡是如何成为希腊美食殿堂的一员 (How moussaka made it into the pantheon of Greek gastronomy)

爱国主义改变了经典菜肴 (Patriotism revolutionised a classic dish)

在1821年，希腊革命者起义反抗奥斯曼帝国，引发了数年的流血冲突，最终于1829年建立起一个自由国家。每年的3月25日，希腊人通过游行和大量享用**bakaliaros skordalia*，一道用大蒜蘸鳕鱼的美食盛宴，来庆祝独立日。

IN 1821 GREEK revolutionaries rose up against the Ottomans, setting off years of bloodshed that culminated in the creation of a free state in 1829. On March 25th each year Greeks celebrate Independence Day with parades and abundant feasts of bakaliaros skordalia, delicately battered cod with garlic dip.

然而，许多人认为希腊的国菜是摩洛哥菜——浓郁味美的肉酱、土豆、茄子和奢华的白汁组成的一块块美味拼盘。这道菜进入希腊美食殿堂是在希腊独立后一个世纪左右。这个国家对这道菜的接纳是一个关于传统形成以及一个国家美食演变的教训。

And yet it is moussaka—sloppy squares of richly flavoured mince, potatoes, aubergines and indulgent béchamel sauce—that many consider Greece’s national dish. Its entry into the pantheon of Greek gastronomy came about a century after Greek independence. The country’s embrace of the dish is a lesson in how traditions are forged and how a nation’s cuisine evolves.

尼古拉奥斯·特塞勒门特斯被认为是希腊摩洛哥菜的创始人。在20世纪20年代，他出版了第一本完整的希腊菜谱，《Odigos Mageirikis》（“烹饪指南”），其中包括了六道摩洛哥菜的配方。他的创作中不含希腊厨师以往所用的诸如月桂叶和肉桂这类浓烈风味。特塞勒门特斯写道，这些是奥斯曼帝国近四个世纪的“污染”。他讨厌大蒜，并且与一般希腊人不同，橄榄油也不在其食谱中。他说，古代厨师们并未在烹饪中撒入孜然或其他“东方”香料。

Nikolaos Tselementes is considered the godfather of Greek moussaka. In the 1920s he published the first complete Greek cookbook, “Odigos Mageirikis” (“Cooking Guide”), which included six recipes for moussaka. His creations contained none of the pungent flavours hitherto used by Greek cooks, such as bay leaf and cinnamon. These were “contamination” from nearly four centuries of Ottoman rule, Tselementes wrote. He hated garlic and—unusually for a Greek—olive oil. The chefs of antiquity had not tossed cumin or other “eastern” spices into their pots, he said.

他将政治元素融入食物的努力取得了成功。《Odigos Mageirikis》成为富裕城市家庭厨房中的必备书籍，tselementes一词曾一度成为食谱书的代名词。通过激发爱国主义情感和希腊化家庭烹饪，特塞勒门特斯改革了希腊美食。

His efforts to bake politics into food were successful. “Odigos Mageirikis” became a staple of wealthy urban kitchens and the word “tselementes” synonymous with a recipe book for a while. By tapping into patriotism and Hellenising the hearth, Tselementes revolutionised Greek cuisine.

并非所有外来影响都是可憎的。与许多烹饪同行一样，特塞勒门特斯对法国美食情有独钟。这也许是他将自己的摩洛哥菜裹上丝般顺滑的白汁的灵感所在。他的法希创作还包括茄子、煎切小胡瓜，以及冬季时的朝鲜蓟。美食作家阿格莱娅·克莱梅兹表示，法式烤菜——一道含有白汁和面包屑的蔬菜砂锅菜肴——更可能是他的灵感来源，而非中东风味的摩洛哥菜**版本。

Not all foreign influences were anathema. Like many culinary contemporaries, Tselementes was besotted with French gastronomy. This may have been what inspired him to coat his moussakas in velvety béchamel. His Gallic-Greek creations also featured aubergine, as well as fried courgette and, in winter, artichoke. The French gratin—a vegetable casserole enveloped in white sauce and breadcrumbs—was a more likely source of inspiration than versions of moussakas cooked in the Middle East, says Aglaia Kremezi, a food writer.

随着厨师和美食历史学家寻求挖掘失传的菜谱和复兴烹饪传统，摩洛哥菜表明在食物中真实性是个难以捉摸的概念。文化长期以来相互借鉴，因此美食变得更加丰富。

As chefs and food historians seek to revive lost recipes and resurrect culinary traditions, moussaka proves that authenticity is an elusive concept in food. Cultures have long borrowed from one another, and gastronomy is all the richer for it.

一道适合重新创造的菜肴更有可能长存。特塞勒门特斯的摩洛哥菜至今仍在全球各地的小酒馆中供应。如今，烹饪该菜没有一个固定的方式。在希腊科孚岛东部的一家餐厅，人们会在菜肴中加入龙虾。在英国，厨师们可能会投入烤鹅：哦，竟有了“goussaka”。至于白汁，则最好用酸奶搅拌橄榄油来保持清淡口感。如果他知道的话，特塞勒门特斯可能会感到兴奋不已。■

A dish ripe for reinvention is also more likely to endure. Tselementes’s moussaka is still served in tavernas around the world. Nowadays there is no single way to prepare it. A restaurant in eastern Corfu bakes crayfish between layers. In Britain cooks might chuck in roast goose: lo and behold the “goussaka”. As for the béchamel, it is best kept light by whipping tangy yogurt with olive oil. If he knew, Tselementes would be whipped into a frenzy. ■

阅读更多来自我们的餐饮专栏“《大探索》中的世界美食”：

  • 【对于圣诞饮品，请了解蛋酒的不那么温馨的历史】（12月15日）
  • 【诺盖面包饼干，一道圣诞饼干，揭示了德国的历史】（12月13日）
  • 【互联网名人戴夫·波特诺伊已成为比萨之王】（9月28日）

Read more from The World in a Dish, our column on food:For a Christmas drink, eggnog does not have a heartwarming history (Dec 15th)Lebkuchen, a Christmas biscuit, is a window on German history (Dec 13th)Dave Portnoy, an internet personality, has become pizza’s kingmaker (Sep 28th)

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科技季刊 | 智能设计 (Technology Quarterly | Intelligent design)

人工智能正在接管药物研发 (Artificial intelligence is taking over drug development)

监管机构需要提升自己的水平以跟上 (Regulators need to up their game to keep up)

人工智能提供深刻科学突破的最引人注目的证据出现在谷歌DeepMind发布的一个名为AlphaFold的程序面世时。2016年，该公司的研究人员通过AlphaGo取得了巨大成功，这是一款AI系统，它基本上是通过自学掌握了围棋的规则，然后击败了最高评分的人类棋手，有时还会使用从未预见过的策略。这使公司有了建立一个工作原理更为复杂的系统的信心：即氨基酸序列决定了蛋白质的形状，并在制造蛋白质时折叠成该形状的规则。AlphaFold找到了这些规则并以惊人的成功应用了它们。

The most striking evidence that artificial intelligence can provide profound scientific breakthroughs came with the unveiling of a program called AlphaFold by Google DeepMind. In 2016 researchers at the company had scored a big success with AlphaGo, an AI system which, having essentially taught itself the rules of Go, went on to beat the most highly rated human players of the game, sometimes by using tactics no one had ever foreseen. This emboldened the company to build a system that would work out a far more complex set of rules: those through which the sequence of amino acids which defines a particular protein leads to the shape that sequence folds into when that protein is actually made. AlphaFold found those rules and applied them with astonishing success.

这一成就既显著又实用。显著，因为多年来许多聪明的人一直在努力创造氨基酸链折叠成蛋白质的过程的计算机模型。与激发它的系统横扫人类围棋选手一样，AlphaFold几乎完全超越了他们的最佳努力。实用，因为蛋白质的形状具有极大的实用意义：它决定了蛋白质的功能及其他分子对其的作用。生命的所有基本过程都取决于特定蛋白质的功能。找到对蛋白质有益的分子（有时是阻止其作用，有时是促进其作用）是世界绝大多数药物开发项目的目标。

The achievement was both remarkable and useful. Remarkable because a lot of clever humans had been trying hard to create computer models of the processes which fold chains of amino acids into proteins for decades. AlphaFold bested their best efforts almost as thoroughly as the system that inspired it trounces human Go players. Useful because the shape of a protein is of immense practical importance: it determines what the protein does and what other molecules can do to it. All the basic processes of life depend on what specific proteins do. Finding molecules that do desirable things to proteins (sometimes blocking their action, sometimes encouraging it) is the aim of the vast majority of the world’s drug development programmes.

由于蛋白质的三维结构的重要性，存在一个基本专门为此而设的子学科：结构生物学。它利用各种技术通过核磁共振技术观察蛋白质或者让它们结晶（这可能会非常困难），然后进行X射线照射。在AlphaFold之前，逾半个世纪的结构生物学通过这些方法产生了几十万个可靠的蛋白质结构。AlphaFold及其竞争对手（尤其是Meta制作的一个程序）现在提供了超过6亿种形状的详细预测。

Because of the importance of proteins’ three-dimensional structure there is an entire sub-discipline largely devoted to it: structural biology. It makes use of all sorts of technology to look at proteins through nuclear-magnetic-resonance techniques or by getting them to crystallise (which can be very hard) and blasting them with x-rays. Before AlphaFold over half a century of structural biology had produced a couple of hundred thousand reliable protein structures through these means. AlphaFold and its rivals (most notably a program made by Meta) have now provided detailed predictions of the shapes of more than 600m.

作为留下科学家们目瞪口呆的方式，它难以超越。但是，如果AlphaFold的成果让世界为之震撼，那么它们的制作基础属于深度学习和生成式人工智能可以为生物学提供的一类典型事物。AlphaFold在两种不同类型的数据（氨基酸序列和它们折叠形成的三维描述）上训练，找到了可以让它使用第一类型数据来预测第二类型数据的模式。这些预测并非都完美。位于犹他州的AI密集型药物发现初创企业Recursion Pharmaceuticals的老板克里斯·吉布森表示，他公司将AlphaFold的产出视为待在试验中验证的假设。并非所有假设都符合事实。但吉布森博士也表示，该模型迅速变得更好。

As a way of leaving scientists gobsmacked it is a hard act to follow. But if AlphaFold’s products have wowed the world, the basics of how it made them are fairly typical of the sort of things deep learning and generative AI can offer biology. Trained on two different types of data (amino-acid sequences and three-dimensional descriptions of the shapes they fold into) AlphaFold found patterns that allowed it to use the first sort of data to predict the second. The predictions are not all perfect. Chris Gibson, the boss of Recursion Pharmaceuticals, an AI-intensive drug-discovery startup based in Utah, says that his company treats AlphaFold’s outputs as hypotheses to be tested and validated experimentally. Not all of them pan out. But Dr Gibson also says the model is quickly getting better.

这是当下各类人工智能在生物医学领域及具体药物研究中正在做的事情：提出科学家可能自行想象不到的世界运作方式的建议。AI系统在大量不同数据集中寻找可以延伸的模式，从而发现这些数据中对人类生物学和疾病有意义的联系。面对新数据，它们可以利用这些影响模式产生新的假设，然后对其进行测试。

This is what a whole range of AIs are now doing in the world of biomedicine and, specifically, drug research: making suggestions about the way the world is that scientists could or would not come up with on their own. Trained to find patterns that extend across large bodies of disparate data, AI systems can discover relationships within those data that have implications for human biology and disease. Presented with new data they can use those patterns of implication to produce new hypotheses which can then be tested.

人工智能生成新想法的能力为用户提供了洞察力，可以帮助发现药物靶点，并预测可能作为药物的新化合物行为，有时甚至是以前从未想象过的。此外，它还被用来找到旧药物的新应用，预测新药物的副作用，并找到方法来区分哪些患者可能受益于药物，哪些可能受到伤害。

The ability of AI to generate new ideas provides users with insights that can help to identify drug targets and to predict the behaviour of novel compounds, sometimes never previously imagined, that might act as drugs. It is also being used to find new applications for old drugs, to predict the side effects of new drugs, and to find ways of telling those patients whom a drug might help from those it might harm.

这些计算雄心并非新鲜事物。斯坦福大学的研究人员Vijay Pande表示，大规模计算、机器学习和药物设计已经在2000年代融合在一起。这在一定程度上是对于生物学火速涌现的新发现的回应：现在每年发表的生物医学研究论文超过一百万篇。

Such computational ambitions are not new. Large-scale computing, machine learning and drug design were already coming together in the 2000s, says Vijay Pande, who was a researcher at Stanford University at the time. This was in part a response to biology’s fire hose of new findings: there are now more than a million biomedical research papers published every year.

人工智能最初被视为有助于解决这个问题的方法之一是通过“知识图谱”，它允许机器阅读所有这些信息，并为关于例如血液中哪种蛋白质可用作生物标志物，揭示疾病存在或严重程度的见解。2020年，总部位于伦敦的BenevolentAI利用了这种方法，看到了Eli Lilly销售的用于治疗类风湿关节炎的baricitinib在治疗新冠肺炎方面的潜力。

One of the early ways in which AI was seen to help with this was through “knowledge graphs”, which allowed all that information to be read by machines and mined for insights about, say, which proteins in the blood might be used as biomarkers revealing the presence or severity of a disease. In 2020 BenevolentAI, based in London, used this method to see the potential which baricitinib, sold by Eli Lilly as a treatment for rheumatoid arthritis, had for treating covid-19.

这月，《科学》杂志发表的研究描述了一种不同类型的AI算法如何加速了在血液中寻找长期covid生物标志物的努力。统计方法在发现这类生物标志物时可能面临挑战，因为数据的复杂性很高。AI提供了一种突破这些干扰并推进疾病发现过程的方法，无论是像长期covid这样的新疾病，还是像早期阶段的阿尔茨海默病这类难以诊断的疾病。

This January, research published in Science described how AI algorithms of a different sort had accelerated efforts to find biomarkers of long covid in the blood. Statistical approaches to the discovery of such biomarkers can be challenging given the complexity of the data. AIs offer a way of cutting through this noise and advancing the discovery process in diseases both new, like long covid, and hard to diagnose, like the early stages of Alzheimer’s.

尽管取得了过去的进展，但现在在大力推进AI的风险投资公司Andreessen Horowitz的Pande博士认为，最近的进展标志着一个转变。在新的基础模型崭露头角之前，生物医学研究，特别是在生物技术和制药领域，一直在稳步增加对自动化和工程化的依赖；现在这种情况已经发生，这两者似乎相辅相成。这些新的基础模型不仅提供了处理庞大数据的方法，而且对数据提出了需求。高度自动化的实验室可以产生大量可靠数据，这正是用于训练基础模型的理想材料。生物医学研究人员需要尽可能多的帮助来理解他们现在能够生成的大量数据。

But despite this past progress, Dr Pande, now at Andreessen Horowitz, a venture-capital firm that is big on AI, thinks that more recent advances mark a step change. Biomedical research, particularly in biotech and pharma, was steadily increasing its reliance on automation and engineering before the new foundation models came into their own; now that has happened, the two seem to reinforce each other. The new foundation models do not just provide a way to cope with big bodies of data; they demand them. The scads of reliable data highly automated labs can produce in abundance are just the sort of thing for training foundation models. And biomedical researchers need all the help they can get to understand the torrents of data they are now capable of generating.

通过找到人类无法想到的模式，或者没有希望在没有帮助的情况下找到的模式，AI为研究人员提供了探索和理解生命奥秘的新途径。一些人谈到AI掌握了“生物的语言”，学会从数据中直接理解进化产生的东西，就像它们在大量真实语言上进行训练后，可以流利地生成以前从未说过的有意义的句子。

By finding patterns humans had not thought to look for, or had no hope of finding unaided, AI offers researchers new ways to explore and understand the mysteries of life. Some talk of AIs mastering the “language of biology”, learning to make sense of what evolution has wrought directly from the data in the same way that, trained on lots of real language, they can fluently generate meaningful sentences never uttered before.

DeepMind的负责人Demis Hassabis指出，生物本身可以被认为是“一个信息处理系统，尽管是一个非常复杂和动态的系统”。硅谷公司Seer Bio的首席数据官Serafim Batzoglou在Medium上的一篇文章中预测，将出现集成从基因组序列到病史的数据的开放基础模型。他认为，这将极大地加速创新并促进精准医疗。

Demis Hassabis, the boss of DeepMind, points out that biology itself can be thought of as “an information processing system, albeit an extraordinarily complex and dynamic one”. In a post on Medium, Serafim Batzoglou, the chief data officer at Seer Bio, a Silicon Valley company that specialises in looking at how proteins behave, predicts the emergence of open foundation models that will integrate data spanning from genome sequences to medical histories. These, he argues, will vastly accelerate innovation and advance precision medicine.

像许多热衷于AI的爱好者一样，Pande博士谈到了“一场改变一切的工业革命”。但是他对迄今所花费的时间的理解使他警告说，证明那种长期激情变化的成就不会一夜之间到来：“我们正处于一个过渡时期，在这个时期人们可以看到差异，但仍有工作要做。”

Like many of the enthusiasts piling into AI Dr Pande talks of an “industrial revolution…changing everything”. But his understanding of the time taken so far leads him to caution that achievements that justify that long-term enthusiasm change will not come overnight: “We are in a transitory period where people can see the difference but there is still work to do.”

许多制药公司近年来在基础模型的开发上做出了重大投资。与此同时，像位于硅谷的Recursion、Genesis Therapeutics、Insilico以及位于香港和纽约的公司等以AI为中心的初创公司也在崛起，同时位于马萨诸塞州剑桥的Relay Therapeutics也在其中。位于南旧金山的AI生物技术公司Insitro的负责人Daphne Koller表示，一个迹象是她不再需要解释大型语言模型和自监督学习。而生产驱动基础模型的显卡制造商Nvidia表现出浓厚的兴趣。在过去的一年里，它已经向至少六家不同的AI生物技术公司投资或达成合作协议，其中包括另一家位于纽约的Schrodinger、Genesis、Recursion和瑞士制药公司Roche的独立子公司Genentech。

A lot of pharma firms have made significant investments in the development of foundation models in recent years. Alongside this has been a rise in AI-centred startups such as Recursion, Genesis Therapeutics, based in Silicon Valley, Insilico, based in Hong Kong and New York and Relay Therapeutics, in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Daphne Koller, the boss of Insitro, an AI-heavy biotech in South San Francisco, says one sign of the times is that she no longer needs to explain large language models and self-supervised learning. And Nvidia—which makes the graphics-processing units that are essential for powering foundation models—has shown a keen interest. In the past year, it has invested or made partnership deals with at least six different AI-focused biotech firms including Schrodinger, another New York based firm, Genesis, Recursion and Genentech, an independent subsidiary of Roche, a big Swiss pharmaceutical company.

许多公司正在使用的药物发现模型可以从各种生物数据中学习，包括基因序列、细胞和组织的图片、相关蛋白质的结构、血液中的生物标志物、特定细胞中产生的蛋白质，以及关于患病进程和患者治疗效果的临床数据。一旦训练完毕，AI可以通过有标签的数据进行微调以增强其能力。

The drug-discovery models many of the companies are working with can learn from a wide variety of biological data including gene sequences, pictures of cells and tissues, the structures of relevant proteins, biomarkers in the blood, the proteins being made in specific cells and clinical data on the course of disease and effect of treatments in patients. Once trained, the AIs can be fine tuned with labelled data to enhance their capabilities.

对患者数据的使用尤其耐人寻味。由于种种明显原因，往往不可能通过实验来发现人类疾病的确切机理。因此，药物研发通常主要依赖动物模型，尽管它们可能误导人。经过训练、更加适应人类生物学的AI可能有助于避免一些妨碍药物研发的死胡同。

The use of patient data is particularly interesting. For fairly obvious reasons it is often not possible to discover the exact workings of a disease in humans through experiment. So drug development typically relies a lot on animal models, even though they can be misleading. AIs that are trained on, and better attuned to, human biology may help avoid some of the blind alleys that stymie drug development.

例如，Insitro通过病理学切片、基因序列、磁共振成像数据和血液蛋白质来训练其模型。其中一个模型能够将细胞在显微镜下的外观变化与基因组中的变异和不同疾病的临床结果联系起来。该公司希望利用这些技术找到识别对特定治疗方法特别有效的癌症患者亚群的方法。

Insitro, for example, trains its models on pathology slides, gene sequences, MRI data and blood proteins. One of its models is able to connect changes in what cells look like under the microscope with underlying mutations in the genome and with clinical outcomes across various different diseases. The company hopes to use these and similar techniques to find ways to identify sub-groups of cancer patients that will do particularly well on specific courses of treatment.

有时候，弄清楚人工智能正在如何响应数据的哪个方面本身就是有用的。2019年，总部位于巴黎的“AI生物科技”公司Owkin发布了有关一个深度神经网络的细节，该网络经过训练可以预测患有恶性间皮瘤（一种围绕肺部组织的癌症）的患者的存活情况，这是基于玻片上的组织样本。发现AI预测中最相关的细胞并非癌细胞本身，而是附近的非癌细胞。Owkin团队引入了额外的细胞外和分子数据，并发现了一种新的药物靶点。去年八月，印第安纳大学布卢明顿分校的科学家团队训练了一个模型，该模型基于有关癌细胞如何对药物作出反应（包括基因信息）以及药物的化学结构的数据，从而使其能够预测一种药对治疗特定癌症的有效性。

Sometimes finding out what aspect of the data an AI is responding to is useful in and of itself. In 2019 Owkin, a Paris based “AI biotech”, published details of a deep neural network trained to predict survival in patients with malignant mesothelioma, a cancer of the tissue surrounding the lung, on the basis of tissue samples mounted on slides. It found that the cells most germane to the AI’s predictions were not the cancer cells themselves but non-cancerous cells nearby. The Owkin team brought extra cellular and molecular data into the picture and discovered a new drug target. In August last year a team of scientists from Indiana University Bloomington trained a model on data about how cancer cells respond to drugs (including genetic information) and the chemical structures of drugs, allowing it to predict how effective a drug would be in treating a specific cancer.

许多使用AI的公司需要大量高质量的数据，他们正在自行生成这些数据作为其药物开发计划的一部分，而不是等待其他地方发布。一个关于这个主题的变体来自Genentech的新计算科学部门，该部门采用“实验室内环”方法来训练他们的AI。该系统的预测结果通过运行自动化实验室系统进行大规模测试。然后利用这些实验的结果重新训练AI，以提高其准确性。Recursion也使用类似的策略，声称可以利用自动化实验室机器人每周进行220万次实验。

Many of the companies using AI need such great volumes of high quality data they are generating it themselves as part of their drug development programmes rather than waiting for it to be published elsewhere. One variation on this theme comes from a new computational sciences unit at Genentech which uses a “lab in the loop” approach to train their AI. The system’s predictions are tested at a large scale by means of experiments run with automated lab systems. The results of those experiments are then used to retrain the AI and enhance its accuracy. Recursion, which is using a similar strategy, says it can use automated laboratory robotics to conduct 2.2m experiments each week.

随着制药公司对数据需求日益增加，有关患者数据隐私的担忧变得更加突出。Owkin等公司使用的一种解决这个问题的方式是“联合学习”，在这种方法中，用于构建癌症细胞类型图谱的训练数据永远不会离开存储所需组织样本的医院：数据可以提供的训练内容被带走了，而数据本身则保留。

As pharma firms become increasingly hungry for data, concerns about the privacy of patient data are becoming more prominent. One way of dealing with the problem, used by Owkin among others, is “federated learning”, in which the training data it needs to build an atlas of cancer cell types never leaves the hospital where the tissue samples required are stored: what the data can offer in terms of training is taken away. The data themselves remain.

AI的意义不仅在于理解疾病，还涉及到如何干预。多伦多大学的ProteinSGM等生成式AI模型现在是蛋白设计的强大工具，因为它们不仅能够描绘现有蛋白质，还能设计具有期望特性的新蛋白质——这些特性在自然界中目前并不存在，但是可以作为实现期望功能的可能途径。其他系统允许化学家设计小分子，这些小分子在与靶标的特定方式互动时可能用作药物。

The implications of AI go beyond understanding disease and on into figuring out how to intervene. Generative AI models, such as ProteinSGM from the University of Toronto, are now powerful tools in protein design because they are not merely able to picture existing proteins but also to design new ones—with desired characteristics—that do not currently exist in nature but which are possible ways of embodying a desired function. Other systems allow chemists to design small molecules that might be useful as drugs as they interact with a target in a desired way.

在每个阶段，AI假设都需要与现实进行核对。即便如此，这种方法似乎能加速发现。波士顿咨询集团（BCG）进行的一项针对“AI密集型”公司的药物最近分析发现，在可获得信息的八种药物中，有五种在不到典型时间内进入了临床试验阶段。其他工作表明，AI在药物开发的临床前阶段可能实现时间和成本节约25%至50%，这一阶段可能需要四到七年。鉴于整个过程的时间和金钱成本，对于单个药物而言，这可能需要花费数十亿美元，改进可能会转变该行业的生产力。但这需要时间才能确定。药物管道仍然进展缓慢；这些承诺的新药物尚未上市。

At every stage the AI hypotheses need to be checked against reality. Even so, such an approach seems to speed up discovery. A recent analysis of drugs from “AI-intensive” firms carried out by BCG, a consulting group, found that of eight drugs for which information was available, five had reached clinical trials in less than the typical time for doing so. Other work suggests AI could yield time and cost savings of 25% to 50% in the preclinical stage of drug development, which can take four to seven years. Given the cost in time and money of the whole process, which can be several billions of dollars for a single drug, improvements could transform the industry’s productivity. But it will take time to know for sure. Drug pipelines are still slow; none of these promised new drugs has yet got to market.

Insilico Medicine是希望事情发生变化的公司之一。它在药物开发过程中使用多种模型。其中一个确定可能被靶向以影响疾病的蛋白质。另一个可以设计潜在的新药物化合物。使用这种方法，它在不到18个月的时间内以300万美元的成本确定了一种可能对肺纤维化有用的药物候选，这仅是正常成本的一小部分。这种药物最近进入了第二阶段临床试验。

Insilico Medicine is one of the companies hoping for that to change. It uses a range of models in its drug development process. One identifies the proteins that might be targeted to influence a disease. Another can design potential new drug compounds. Using this approach it identified a drug candidate which might be useful against pulmonary fibrosis in less than 18 months and at a cost of $3m—a fraction of the normal cost. The drug recently started Phase 2 trials.

许多中国的制药公司正在与Insilico等以AI驱动公司达成交易，希望看到更多类似的情况发生。一些人希望这类交易能够刺激中国相对增长缓慢的药物开发企业。中国的合同研究机构已经感受到了来自全球各地对新分子的AI推动兴趣带来的好处。2021年中国在AI辅助药物发现上的投资超过了12.6亿美元。

A lot of pharma firms in China are doing deals with AI-driven companies like Insilico in the hope of seeing more of the same. Some hope that such deals might be able to boost China’s relatively slow-growing drug-development businesses. China’s contract research organisations are already feeling the benefits of AI fuelled interest in new molecules from around the world. Investment in AI-assisted drug discovery in China was more than $1.26bn in 2021.

过去十年，世界见证了许多开创性 的新药物和治疗方法：针对 GLP-1 的药物正在改变糖尿病和肥胖症的治疗方式；CAR-T疗法正在动员免疫系统对抗癌症；基因编辑的首次临床应用。但是，从识别重要的生物过程到确定可靶药物靶点，再到开发候选分子，进行临床前试验，然后进行临床试验，这长期的药物开发过程通常是缓慢且令人沮丧的工作。在 2000 年至 2015 年间开发的所有药物候选物中，大约有 86% 未能达到临床试验的主要终点。有人认为药物开发已经摘下了大部分生物学的低 hanging fruits，留下了难以应付的疾病和“无法靶向”的药物靶点。

The world has seen a number of ground breaking new drugs and treatments in the past decade: the drugs targeting GLP-1 that are transforming the treatment of diabetes and obesity; the CAR-T therapies enlisting the immune system against cancer; the first clinical applications of genome editing. But the long haul of drug development, from discerning the biological processes that matter to identifying druggable targets to developing candidate molecules to putting them through preclinical tests and then clinical trials, remains generally slow and frustrating work. Approximately 86% of all drug candidates developed between 2000 and 2015 failed to meet their primary endpoints in clinical trials. Some argue that drug development has picked off most of biology’s low-hanging fruit, leaving diseases which are intractable and drug targets that are “undruggable”.

未来几年将明确地展示人工智能是否能够实质性地改变这一局面。即使它只提供渐进性改进，这仍可能是一个真正的福音。如果像最积极乐观的人所预言的那样，它让生物学以全新的方式被解读，它可能使整个过程变得更加成功和高效 - 并且能够非常快速地将“无法靶向”的疾病进行药物化。波士顿咨询集团的分析师认为正在迅速接近一场由人工智能推动的新药浪潮。Pande 博士警告称，药品监管机构需要提升能力以迎接挑战。这对世界来说将会是一个好问题。 ■

The next few years will demonstrate conclusively if AI is able to materially shift that picture. If it offers merely incremental improvements that could still be a real boon. If it allows biology to be deciphered in a whole new way, as the most boosterish suggest, it could make the whole process far more successful and efficient—and drug the undruggable very rapidly indeed. The analysts at BCG see signs of a fast-approaching AI-enabled wave of new drugs. Dr Pande warns that drug regulators will need to up their game to meet the challenge. It would be a good problem for the world to have. ■

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科技季刊 | 自我编程的灵丹妙药 (Technology Quarterly | Self-programming panaceas)

人工智能将使医疗更安全更好 (AIs will make health care safer and better)

Natasha Loder称，成本甚至可能降低。 (It may even get cheaper, too, says Natasha Loder)

当人们制定天真到近乎荒谬的目标时，理性的人会嗤之以鼻。他们通常这样做是正确的。然而，有时候，值得去考虑一下甚至是最惊人的抱负可能是可以实现的。

When people set goals which are sky-high to the point of silliness, the sensible scoff. They are normally right to do so. Sometimes, though, it is worth entertaining the possibility that even the most startling aspiration might be achievable.

2015年，儿科医生普里西拉·陈和她的丈夫，Facebook的创始人马克·扎克伯格建立了陈·扎克伯格倡议（CZI），旨在帮助科学实现一个可以预防、治愈或管理所有疾病的世界。这个倡议的倾向很明显与科技有关。但直到2020年，陈-扎克伯格的年度更新才开始谈论人工智能（AI）的潜力。四年后，很难想象任何人在追求他们的目标时不将其置于首要位置。

In 2015 Priscilla Chan, a paediatrician, and her husband Mark Zuckerberg, a founder of Facebook, set up the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative (CZI) with the aim of helping science bring about a world in which all disease could be prevented, cured or managed. Unsurprisingly there was a tech-centric feeling to the undertaking. But it was not until 2020 that the Chan-Zuckerberg’s annual updates started to talk about the potential of artificial intelligence (AI). Four years later it is hard to imagine anyone pursuing their goals not putting it front and centre.

生物医学研究论文中涉及人工智能的比例在这一领域开始以指数速度攀升，早在该领域以“基础模型”如OpenAI的各种GPT（生成式预训练变换器）、Meta的Llama和Google的Gemini让世界惊叹之前（见图表）。鉴于生物医学研究产生的大量数据，AI在该领域的早期应用并不令人惊讶。然而，过去的进展和前景只是正在进行中的工作的序曲。

The proportion of biomedical research papers which invoke artificial intelligence was climbing exponentially well before the field started dazzling the world with “foundation models” like OpenAI’s various GPTs (generative pre-trained transformers), Meta’s Llama and Gemini from Google (see chart). Given the vast amounts of data that biomedical research produces, AI’s early application there is hardly a surprise. That past progress and promise, though, is a mere prelude to what is now under way.

与“基础模型”和生成连贯文本以各种风格回答复杂问题，并帮助创造捕捉口头提示中表达的思想的图像的大型语言模型相似的人工智能系统已经成为医疗保健的一部分。它们几乎可以应用于各个领域。它们可以改进研究人员如何精确编辑基因的选择；它们在理解来自不同来源的大数据方面表现出色；它们可以建议药物开发的新目标，并帮助发明可能对其起作用的各种大小的分子药物。CZI本身现在正在致力于构建一个由AI驱动的“虚拟细胞”，希望以此彻底改变各种生物医学研究。

Artificial-intelligence systems of similar power to the foundation models and large language models that generate cogent text in all manner of styles, answer complex questions quite convincingly and helpfully, and create images that capture the ideas expressed in verbal prompts are becoming a part of health care. They have applications for almost every part of it. They can improve the choices researchers make about how exactly to edit genes; they are phenomenally good at making sense of big data from disparate sources; they can suggest new targets for drug development and help invent molecules large and small that might work as drugs against them. The CZI itself is now working on building an AI-powered “virtual cell” with which it hopes to revolutionise all manner of biomedical research.

这些影响并不仅限于实验室。AI在发挥作用的各种诊断方式似乎即将发生转变。机器人外科医生正在承担越来越多的手术。患者获取健康信息的方式以及激励自己遵循治疗方案的方式看起来可以通过聊天机器人和可穿戴健康监测器学会合作进行重新构想。医疗保健系统的生产效率很可能会有显著提高。

The effects are not restricted to the lab. Various sorts of diagnosis in which AI is playing a role look ready to be transformed. Robot surgeons are taking on an expanding range of operations. The way that patients access health information and motivate themselves to follow treatment regimes looks ripe for reimagining as chatbots and wearable health monitors learn to work together. The productivity of health-care systems seems likely to be improved significantly.

贫困国家可能是最有所获的。早期的AI已经在那里的医疗保健领域产生了影响。其中一个优势是它可以使相当简单的设备更具能力，使其能够更广泛地使用并进入临床以外的领域。智能听诊器可以帮助用户挑选出重要细节，手机可以变成可以同时测量心率、体温、呼吸和血氧饱和度的“三角测量仪”。以用户的母语为全世界的医护人员提供可靠的指导，这是一种既简单又具有颠覆性的进步。

Poorer countries may have the most to gain. An earlier generation of AI is already making itself felt in health care there. One advantage is that it can make quite modest equipment much more capable, allowing it to be used more widely and beyond the clinic. Smart stethoscopes can help users pick out salient details, phones can be turned into “tricorders” that measure heart rate, temperature, respiration and blood oxygen saturation all at once. Delivering reliable guidance for health-care workers over the world in their native language offers an advance both straightforward and game changing.

如果这些工具可以广泛传播，如果医疗保健系统被重新塑造以充分利用它们，那它们应该能够提供更好的护理。这代表着改善数亿，甚至数十亿人生活的机会。

If such tools can become widespread, and if health-care systems are reshaped to get the most out of them, they should make it possible to deliver much better care. That represents an opportunity to improve the lives of hundreds of millions, even billions.

有些人不仅看到了人道主义的突破，而且还看到了一种全新的知识形态：一种全新的知识形态。人工智能能够在人类无法解开的庞大和紧密的数据体系中找到关联和连接，而人类在进行分析时往往需要预先存在的关于什么原因会导致什么效果的模型。DeepMind创始人之一Demis Hassabis认为，这种能力将改变人类对生命本身的理解。

Some see not just a humanitarian breakthrough, but an epistemological one: a whole new sort of knowledge. Artificial intelligence can find associations and connections in bodies of disparate data too vast and knotted for humans to unpick without needing pre-existing models of what sorts of cause have what sorts of effect. Demis Hassabis, one of the founders of DeepMind, an AI powerhouse that is now part of Google, thinks that ability will change the way humans understand life itself.

这也存在一些需注意之处。用于驱动ChatGPT等生成式应用的基础模型存在一些严重的缺陷。无论你是否称之为幻觉，作为研究人员的说法，或者称之为捏造，作为他们现在更倾向于的说法，它们是虚构的。与大多数AI一样，如果你用贫乏或断断续续的数据来训练它们，则结果将不尽如人意。如果数据存在偏见，就像健康数据经常存在的那样（关于少数族群、低收入群体和边缘化人群的好数据通常相对难以获取），则结果将不会像应该那样为整体民众服务，反而可能对少数族群产生伤害。这些模型“非确定性”的特性（它们在相同的刺激下不会始终以相同方式作出反应）对那些对医疗设备进行监管的人员带来了哲学和实际上的问题，而血压袖带和温度计则更直截了当地反映现实。

There are caveats. The foundation models that power “generative” applications like ChatGPT have some serious drawbacks. Whether you call it hallucinating, as researchers used to, or confabulating, as they now prefer to, they make stuff up. As with most AI, if you train them on poor or patchy data the results will not be all they should be. If the data are biased, as health data frequently are (good data on minorities, low-income groups and marginalised populations is often harder to come by) the results will not serve the population as a whole as well as they should and may do harm in the underrepresented groups. The models’ “non-deterministic” nature (they will not always respond in the same way to the same stimulus) raises philosophical and practical problems for those who regulate medical devices. Blood-pressure cuffs and thermometers reflect reality more straightforwardly.

尽管存在这些注意事项，但医疗保健AI产品和服务市场正在迅速增长。大型AI公司热衷于收购医疗专家；医疗保健公司也在收购AI。研究与市场公司Research and Markets估计，到2023年，医疗保健领域在与硬件（如专门加工芯片和包含这些芯片的设备）相关的AI及软件诊断、图像分析、远程监控患者等方面花费了约130亿美元。他们预测到2028年，这个数字将达到470亿美元。CB Insights的分析师认为，从2019年到2022年，投资者将315亿美元的股权资金投入到医疗保健AI领域。在医疗AI领域的1500家供应商中，超过一半是在过去七年创立的。

None of this is stopping the market for products and services in health-care AI from growing apace. Big AI companies have been keen on buying health-care specialists; health-care companies are buying AI. Research and Markets, a firm of analysts, estimates that in 2023 the health-care world spent about $13bn on AI-related hardware (such as specialised processing chips and devices that include them) and software providing diagnostics, image analysis, remote monitoring of patients and more. It sees that number reaching $47bn by 2028. Analysts at CB Insights reckon investors transferred a whopping $31.5bn in equity funding into health-care-related AI between 2019 and 2022. Of the 1,500 vendors in health AI over half were founded in the past seven years.

医疗保健数字化已经经历了一些昂贵的失望。但有一个真正的可能性，即AI将实现人们对它寄予的某些希望。相比以往，更简单、更容易于理解的界面应该对医生、患者和医疗保健提供者更友好，帮助他们更好地处理数据和时间管理。在高成本和老龄化的世界中，医疗保健系统迫切需要提高生产效率。到2030年，预计医疗保健工作者的短缺将达到将近1000万人——约占全球今天整个卫生健康劳动力的15%。人工智能无法独自解决这个问题，但它可能有所帮助。

The digitisation of health care has seen its fair share of expensive disappointments. But there is a real possibility that AI will live up to some of the hope being placed in it. Simpler and more forgiving interfaces should make AI-based systems for handling data and helping with time-management more congenial to doctors, patients and health-care providers than those of yore. And health-care systems sorely need a productivity boost if they are to adapt and improve in a world of high costs and older populations. The shortage of health-care workers is predicted to reach nearly 10m by 2030—about 15% of today’s entire global health workforce. Artificial intelligence will not solve that problem on its own. But it may help.

本报告将讨论AI可能提供帮助的四种形式。首先是正在为医生做诊断提供帮助的情况——考虑到每年有80万美国人因糟糕的医疗决策而丧命或残疾，医生是迫切需要帮助的。其次是为想要了解自己症状、或需要帮助和动力保持健康的患者提供的帮助。第三是AI研究工具和数据处理为试图更快更可靠地开发新治疗方法的公司提供的帮助。最后是对整个系统的帮助。

This report will look at four of the forms in which this help looks likely to come. There is the help already being provided to doctors making diagnoses—help they sorely need, given that 800,000 Americans are killed or disabled by bad medical decisions every year. There is the help provided to patients who want to understand their symptoms, or need assistance and motivation to stay healthy. There is the help that AI research tools and data wrangling provide to companies trying to develop new treatments more quickly and reliably. And there is the help to the system as a whole.

如今的卫生系统受到劳动力和知识的严重限制。人工智能可以在这两方面提供重要支持；它可能提供的支持量可能是具有变革性的。这种变革是否意味着到了2100年，所有疾病都将被预防、治愈或管理？这并不足以。但它正让这看似过于狂妄的目标变得更有可能。关于人工智能影响的讨论总是充满着恐惧和不安，有时这是恰当的。但它为全球各地的医疗保健所提供的机会则代表了一种巨大的潜力。■

Today’s health systems are heavily constrained by the scarcity of workers and knowledge. Artificial intelligence can provide significant support on both fronts; it may be the case that it can offer transformational amounts of it. Would such transformation mean that, by 2100, all diseases will be prevented, cured or managed? Not in itself. But it is making that apparently hubristic goal look more likely. Discussions of the impact of AI are larded with fear and unease, sometimes appropriately. What it offers for health all around the world represents a radical potential for good. ■

回到目录

技术季刊 | 人工智能主导 (Technology Quarterly | The AIs have it)

人工智能能够使医疗保健变得更高效吗? (Can artificial intelligence make health care more efficient?)

技术很少能够做到 (Technology has rarely been able to do so)

如果你想看一个漂亮的新蛋白结构，可以请教人工智能。如果你真的需要传真机，可以尝试去医生诊所。它会在角落里，夹着各种附在上面的纸表格。虽然并非所有医生或所有医疗保健系统都是如此，但在许多情况下，这足以令人会心一笑；这个行业的数字化转型迄今最多也只是勉力而为。

IF you want to see a spiffy new protein structure, ask an AI. If you really need a fax machine, try a doctor’s office. It will be somewhere in the corner under a clipboard with a variety of paper forms attached to it. Not true for all doctors, or all health-care systems, but true enough for a wry grin in many; the sector’s digital transformation has been patchy at best.

经济学家认为，在过去的50年中，卫生支出在经合组织国家中的增长中，技术占了25%到50%。这种增长导致了医疗部门在国内生产总值中的份额持续增加。在其中许多国家，它取得了很大成就。然而，经过几十年的昂贵努力，仍然有关于不兼容的IT系统、违反保密和需要与电子健康记录并行保存的纸质记录的报道不绝。那么，有没有理由认为人工智能真的可以解决这个问题呢？

Economists think technology has been responsible for between 25% and 50% of growth in health expenditure in OECD countries over the past 50 years, growth which has seen the sector’s share of GDP grow relentlessly. In many of those countries it has achieved much. And yet, after decades of costly effort, stories still abound of incompatible IT systems, confidentiality breaches and paper records that need to be held on to in parallel to electronic health records. Is there any reason to think that AI can really sort this out?

有的。部分原因在于问题的规模之大。美国在2022年花费了4.5万亿美元在医疗保健上。这远远超过了在可比国家的预期，行政成本占了超额支出的30%。万亿美元级的商机可以吸引到大型公司的关注，如美国的科技巨头。这些公司认为他们的大型语言模型（LLMs）和其他大型自监督学习系统提供了特别适合这项工作的新工具。最大的人工智能公司看到医疗保健作为竞争领域，这是一个真正令人乐观的迹象。

There is. And it is offered, in part, by the sheer size of the problem. America spent $4.5 trillion on health care in 2022. That was considerably more than would be expected in comparable countries, and administrative costs accounted for 30% of the excess. Trillion-dollar opportunities can attract the attention of very large companies, such as America’s tech giants. And those companies think their large language models (LLMs) and other big self-supervised-learning systems offer new tools particularly well suited to the job. The fact that the biggest companies in AI see health care as a place to compete is a genuine cause for optimism.

谷歌的医疗业务之一是Med-PaLM2，这是一个专门用于卫生领域的大型语言模型，旨在回答医疗问题，总结在患者交接或员工轮班期间的信息。亚马逊投资于提供名为Claude的人工智能助手的Anthropic公司，部分目的是为了增强公司在医疗保健领域所能提供的服务。中国的巨头也对此感兴趣。根据麦肯锡管理咨询公司在2022年的一份报告，使用人工智能来预测诊断结果和支持临床决策在中国可能创造大约50亿美元的经济价值。

Among Google’s health-care ventures is Med-PaLM2, a health-specific LLM being developed to answer health-care questions and summarise information during patient handoffs or staff shift changes. Amazon’s investment in Anthropic, which provides an AI assistant called Claude, was in part intended to bolster what the company can offer in health care. Chinese giants are interested too. In 2022, a report by McKinsey, a management consulting firm, argued that using AI to predict diagnostic outcomes and support clinical decisions could create about $5 billion in economic value in China.

此外，还有微软，这是最热衷于通过并购实现增长的科技公司。2021年，微软以197亿美元收购了位于马萨诸塞州伯灵顿的Nuance公司，该公司生产帮助医生进行*创建临床笔记和电子健康记录等行政任务的**人工智能。

Then there is Microsoft, the tech company keenest on growth through acquisition. In 2021 it paid $19.7bn for Nuance, based in Burlington, Massachusetts, a company which makes AI that helps doctors with administrative tasks such as creating clinical notes and electronic health records.

Nuance和亚马逊的Healthscribe等公司提供的支持语音转录的人工智能系统意义重大。Harpreet Sood曾是英国国民医疗服务体系的副首席临床信息官，他表示这项技术对他来说意义重大。这项技术使他每位患者能够节省四到六分钟的时间，这意味着他每天可以省下两到三个小时。他的患者注意到，他看着他们的时间更多了，而看屏幕的时间更少了；他们都很喜欢这种方式。

The AI-backed voice transcription offered by Nuance and others, such as Amazon’s Healthscribe, is a big deal. Harpreet Sood, a doctor who used to be NHS England’s Associate Chief Clinical Information Officer, says the technology has been game changing for him. It saves him four to six minutes per patient, which means two to three hours a day. His patients have noticed that he is looking at them more and his screen less; he and they both like it that way.

还有一些道路可以提高效率，尤其是在美国，它不仅是世界上最大的医疗市场，而且也是一个异常低效的市场。目前流行的一种提高效率和结果的方法是创建医院“指挥中心”。这个想法有点像是一个空中交通管制系统，其中一堵屏幕墙提供了关于关键指标如床位可用性、资源使用和医院各处患者状态的最新信息。该系统的部分组件还可以在病房工作人员使用的平板电脑和移动设备上复制。这些系统不仅可以实时发现问题，还可以预见即将发生的瓶颈。

Other roads to better efficiency abound—especially in America, which is not just the world’s biggest health-care market but also a peculiarly inefficient one. One currently popular way of trying to improve efficiency and outcomes is the creation of hospital “command centres”. The idea is something like an air-traffic-control system in which a wall of screens gives up-to-date information about key metrics such as bed availability, resource use and the status of patients across the hospital. Parts of that ensemble are replicated on tablets and mobile devices used by staff on the wards. Not only can such systems see problems as they happen, they can anticipate bottlenecks to come.

这些系统现在在全球200多家医院中找到。美国巴尔的摩约翰斯·霍普金斯医院的指挥中心已经让患者在不同地点之间转运时间缩短了60%，急救等待时间缩短了25%，手术后床位时间缩短了70%。坦帕总医院宣称自推出一个使用20个人工智能应用程序的指挥中心以来，效率提高了价值4000万美元。

These systems are now found at more than 200 hospitals around the world. The command centre at Johns Hopkins Hospital in Baltimore has made transferring patients between locations 60% faster, cut the waiting times for emergency treatment by 25% and reduced the time in post-surgical beds by 70%. Tampa General Hospital has reported a gain in efficiency worth $40m since launching a command centre using 20 AI applications.

未来另一个由人工智能驱动的愿景涉及让人们远离医院，或者换个角度看，把医院带到人们身边。对“虚拟病房”的认同度较高的英国，允许患者被转移到家中恢复，借助监测设备，例如平板电脑或血压袖带。到2023年，英国已经达到了1万个虚拟病房床位。然而，这些系统目前并没有展现出它们可能具有的好处。对其中一个项目的最新研究发现，它们比医院治疗更昂贵。但人工智能可能会提供帮助。

Another AI-led vision of the future involves keeping people out of hospital—or looked at in another way, taking hospitals to the people. Britain, which has a relatively low number of hospital beds, is an eager adopter of “virtual wards”, which allow patients to be transferred from hospital to recover in their own homes with the aid of monitoring devices such as a tablet or a blood pressure cuff. In 2023 Britain reached 10,000 virtual ward beds. As yet, these systems are not showing as much benefit as they might. A recent study of one such scheme found them more expensive than hospital treatment. But AIs might help.

Doccla是英国众多虚拟病房技术公司之一，他表示正在努力将大型语言模型整合到其临床工作流程中。他们的设想是汇集来自可穿戴设备、患者记录和通话抄本的数据到一个系统中，该系统提供一个“副驾驶员”，可以让医疗保健提供者了解患者间发生的情况。这种能力不仅有助于虚拟病房，还在整个系统中都有帮助。它们应该让医生了解那些可能被埋没在明显视线中的重要健康信息。

Doccla, one of a number of British virtual-ward tech firms, says it is working towards integrating LLMs into its clinical workflow. The vision is to bring together data from wearable devices, patient records and call transcripts into a system that provides a “co-pilot” which can keep the health-care provider abreast of what is happening among the patients. Such capacities will help not just in virtual wards, but across the system. They should let doctors get to grips with vital health information that can be buried in plain sight.

然而，要实现这一点，系统必须进行调整，而这可能会很困难。加州大学旧金山分校的Robert Wachter和斯坦福大学的Erik Brynjolfsson最近提出，人类通常无法实施对“组织结构、领导力、人员或工作流程进行深刻变革所需的全面利用新技术，至少起初如此。

If this is to come about, though, systems will have to adapt, and that can prove hard. Robert Wachter of the University of California, San Francisco, and Erik Brynjolfsson, at Stanford, have recently argued that humans are generally unable to implement the profound changes in “organisational structure, leadership, workforce or workflow needed to take full advantages of new technologies, at least at first.”

医疗分散化是一个例子。在人工智能支持良好决策的情况下，它很可能会倾向于将护理从中心转移到边缘：可能通过更加智能的仪器在全科医疗中进行更多诊断；将其他决策移交给药房；增加患者在家中获取建议和监测的途径。但患者往往已经树立了在面对面看医生或拥有附近医院的期望。

Take the decentralisation of care. To the extent that AI supports good decision making, its tendency will probably be to move care away from the centre and towards the edge: to allow more diagnosis in general-practice, perhaps through smarter instruments; to move other decisions to pharmacies; to increase the access patients have to advice and monitoring in the home. But patients often have set expectations about seeing a doctor in person, or having a nearby hospital.

可能那些仍在发展卫生系统的国家，比起那些机构和患者习惯已经根深蒂固的国家，更有可能重新设想工作。Sood博士认为，那些拥有相对较少的医疗床位但具有良好数字连接的国家可能会引领人工智能的发展——他指出印度、肯尼亚和印尼。这些国家可能更能够采用医疗保健体系中已经在使用的技术，例如通过WhatsApp等平台提供护理。

It may be that countries which are still developing their health systems have a better chance at “reimagining the work” than those where institutions and patients are already set in their ways. Dr Sood thinks countries with less established health infrastructure but good digital connectivity may lead the AI way—he points to India, Kenya and Indonesia. These nations may be better able to build their systems around the technology patients are already using, for example by providing care on platforms such as WhatsApp.

没有人应该认为人工智能在提高效率方面所提供的好处是理所当然的。必然会有一些承诺过度和收费过高的计划。评估、监督和更新会是不断需要的。不仅仅是人工智能可能会“漂移”。公司希望他们的系统提供的某些优势，例如在医生通常无法做到的跟踪研究，要求系统随着时间的推移发生变化，这意味着重新培训和重新认证以确保效力和安全性。

No one should think that what AI offers in terms of greater efficiency can be taken as a given. There will doubtless be schemes that overpromise and overcharge. There will be a constant need for evaluation, supervision and updating. It is not just that AIs can “drift”. Some of the advantages companies want their systems to offer, such as keeping abreast of research in a way doctors often cannot, require the systems to change over time, and this means retraining and recertification to ensure efficacy and safety.

但是，如果持续更新和变化带来了挑战，那么它们的好处显而易见。当机构在适应新技术时需要做出的变化变得更容易时，这种能够推动变革并让应对变得更加容易的能力是人工智能应该能够提供的众多奖励之一。

But if constant updating and change bring challenges, their upside is clear. And the changes institutions need to make when adapting to new technologies should be made easier if those technologies can change too. That ability to both drive change and make it easier to cope with is one of the prizes that AI should, at its best, be able to offer.

这些奖励都不会轻易获得。要充分发挥人工智能的优势，那些发现难以改变的机构需要进行大量调整。监管机构面临确保安全所需的适当压力，面临着技术范围和变化速度增加的新挑战。并且经济激励必须认识到该技术节省成本和挽救生命的潜力。但是，如果人们能够带来这些变革和改革，机器将丰富地回报他们。 ■

None of those prizes will be won easily. Getting the most out of AI will require institutions which find change hard to undertake a lot of it. It will find regulators under proper pressure to ensure safety facing new challenges in terms of the scope of the technology and the speed at which it changes. And it will need economic incentives that realise the technology’s potential to save costs and lives. But if people can bring these shifts and reforms about, the machines will pay them back bountifully.  ■

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科技季刊 | 想象一下 (Technology Quarterly | Picture this)

人工智能长期改进诊断 (Artificial intelligence has long been improving diagnoses)

但最近，这个领域蓬勃发展。 (But recently the field has exploded)

芭芭拉在2023年1月进行了例行乳腺X光检查。几周后，她被邀请去苏格兰阿伯丁皇家医院看医生。尽管两名医生认为乳腺X光检查结果正常，但一种名为Mia的人工智能系统发现了一些异常：一个六毫米大小、颜色微微偏离灰色的斑块。这是2期癌症。如果那时没有发现并切除它，直到芭芭拉进行下一次定期检查，或者直到以其他方式显现，这个癌症可能都不会被发现。

BARBARA had a routine mammogram in January 2023. A few weeks later she was asked to visit her doctor in the Aberdeen Royal Infirmary, in Scotland. The mammogram had looked fine to two doctors, but an AI system called Mia had seen something amiss: a six-millimetre patch of subtly-off shades of grey. It was stage 2 cancer. Had it not been spotted at that point and removed, it would not have been caught until Barbara came in for her next routine screen—or until it made its presence known in some other way.

如果这类故事让人深刻感受到人工智能改善诊断的能力，那统计数据则显示了它能够取得的巨大潜力。英国政府表示，由牛津大学学生创办的初创公司Brainomix开发的e-Stroke系统分析大脑扫描，将中风患者住院至治疗的时间缩短了一个多小时。据尚未公布的数据显示，该系统的速度将中风后能够实现功能独立的人数从16%提高到48%。

If such tales give a visceral sense of AI’s ability to improve diagnosis, statistics show the scale of the good it could attain. The British government says that analysis of brain scans by e-Stroke, a system developed by Brainomix, a startup spun out of Oxford University, has reduced the time between hospital admission and treatment for stroke patients by more than an hour. It points to as-yet-unpublished data saying that the system’s speed has tripled the number of people achieving functional independence after a stroke from 16% to 48%.

人工智能已经被应用于诊断领域比其他医疗领域使用时间更长，并且效果显著。但其提供的转变还远远没有完成。到目前为止所使用的人工智能系统往往仅仅是看似简单的模式识别。自2022年ChatGPT问世以来，那些备受世界瞩目的基础模型才刚刚开始展露头角。

Artificial intelligence has been applied to diagnosis for longer than to any other part of health care, and it shows. But the transformation it offers is far from complete. The AI systems used so far have often been what seem now like quite simple uses of pattern recognition. The foundation models which have so wowed the world since the advent of ChatGPT in 2022 have barely begun to make their mark.

这场革命始于放射学，这是第一种完全数字化的医学成像。这一转变使得存储和分享图像变得更加容易；同时也产生了那些机器可读取的图像。2012年，当一个名为AlexNet的神经网络在年度“ImageNet挑战”中战胜所有竞争者时，机器开始展露出其特长。

The revolution began in radiology, the first sort of medical imaging to go fully digital. The transition made storing and sharing images easier; it also produced images which could be read by machines. In 2012, when a neural network called AlexNet beat all comers in the annual “ImageNet challenge”, the machines started to come into their own.

受到大脑视觉皮层结构启发的神经网络是一种信息逐层流过相互叠放的“神经元”层的系统。早期的神经网络中，一层中的所有神经元与下一层中的所有神经元相连接。AlexNet是一种 “卷积”神经网络，其中连接更加稀疏，这使得更加具有区分性的形式分析成为可能。将这种架构与当时强大的新处理器相结合，使得AlexNet能够彻底改变计算机视觉科学，以及后来的自动化放射学、皮肤病学、眼科学等的潜力。

Neural networks, inspired by the structure of the brain’s visual cortex, are systems in which information flows through layers of “neurons” stacked one on top of the other. In early neural networks all the neurons in one layer were connected to all the neurons in the next. AlexNet was a “convolutional” neural network—one in which the connections were more sparse, something that allows more discriminate forms of analysis. Combining that architecture with new processors of what was then prodigious power allowed AlexNet to revolutionise the science of computer vision, and with it the potential of automated radiology and, later on, of dermatology, ophthalmology and more.

AlexNet的后代日益被用于补充、有时甚至取代人类放射科医师。例如，瑞典斯德哥尔摩的卡皮圣格兰医院使用来自韩国公司Lunit的人工智能系统作为其放射学部门的“第二双眼”，而不是让两名放射科医师单独查看乳腺X光照片。在丹麦，荷兰公司ScreenPoint Medical提供的Transpara产品在低风险病例中被用作乳腺X光检查的第一个阅片者。

AlexNet’s descendants are increasingly being used to complement, and sometimes replace, human radiologists. Capio Saint Göran Hospital in Stockholm, Sweden, for example, uses an AI system from Lunit, a South Korean company, as the “second pair of eyes” in its radiography department, instead of having mammograms looked at independently by two radiographers. In Denmark Transpara, a product provided by ScreenPoint Medical, a Dutch company, is used as a first reader of mammograms in low-risk cases.

在全球范围内能够用较少医生进行更多诊断将是有帮助的，但在贫困国家将是一个救命稻草。日本公司Fujifilm开发了3.5千克的便携式X光机，与印度公司Qure.ai的人工智能算法配对，用于在尼日利亚农村筛查结核病。它还可以评估一系列其他疾病，包括肺炎、慢性阻塞性肺疾病（COPD）和心衰等。更具雄心的是，加纳MinoHealth Labs的达林顿·阿科戈正在开发一个根据整个非洲地区图像训练的放射学模型。从这个过程中获得诊断工具是否太过雄心勃勃？阿科戈博士表示：“我们可以说我们的目标是星辰大海，即使我们没有达到，我们最终得到的也将是放射学辅助。”

Being able to do more diagnosis with fewer doctors will be helpful everywhere, but it promises to be a godsend in poor countries. Fujifilm, a Japanese company, has built a 3.5kg, battery-powered x-ray machine which, paired with AI algorithms from Qure.ai, an Indian firm, is being used to screen for tuberculosis in rural Nigeria. It can also assess a host of other diseases including pneumonia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and heart failure. More ambitiously, Darlington Akogo of MinoHealth Labs in Ghana is building a radiology model trained on images from across Africa. Is it too ambitious to expect a diagnostic tool from this process? “Let’s say we are aiming for the stars,” says Dr Akogo. “Even if we miss it what we end up with is radiology assistance.”

一些人工智能系统可以解读用辐射较少制作的图像，从而不仅减少了需要解读X光片的医生数量，还减少了制作X光片所需的剂量，这对患者有利。它们还可以寻找医生不会检查的事情。在“机会筛查”中，用于寻找特定问题的X光片也会被扫描以查找其他问题的迹象。美国每年进行的8000万次CT扫描中，大多数是为了检查身体某个特定部位的问题，但它们几乎总会包含其他部位的信息。医生不会为了可能揭示其他问题而把用于寻找一个问题的图像传给同事。机器在同时处理多项任务上游刃有余，可以成为识别许多不同类型疾病的专家。

Some AI systems can interpret images made with less radiation than normal, thus reducing not just the number of doctors needed to interpret an X-ray but also the dose needed to make it, which is good for patients. They can also look for things doctors would not check for. In “opportunistic screening” an X-ray taken to look for a specific problem is scanned for signs of other trouble as well. Most of the 80m CT scans done in America each year are undertaken to look for a problem in some specific part of the body, but they almost always contain information about other parts, too. Doctors have no interest in passing images taken to look for one thing around their colleagues on the off chance it reveals something else. Machines have no problem multitasking, and can become experts in identifying many different types of disease.

超声系统为人工智能提供了另一个机会。美国公司Butterfly生产了一款手持式超声系统，由于具备内置人工智能，可用于评估高风险妊娠并估计预产期、胎儿体重和羊水量。在诊所外，这些测量通常是不可能的，并且通常需要一系列仪器。比尔及梅林达·盖茨基金会将Butterfly的扫描仪视为降低撒哈拉以南非洲顽固高产妇死亡率的一种方法。这些经过人工智能增强的系统（飞利浦和GE Healthcare也有市场）在产科学、急救医学和骨科学等领域也有贡献。数百台Butterfly系统正在乌克兰用于帮助急救人员评估战争伤口。

Ultrasound systems provide another opportunity for AI. Butterfly, an American company, produces a hand-held ultrasound system which, thanks to built-in AI, can be used to assess high-risk pregnancies and to estimate due dates, fetal weights and the amount of amniotic fluid. Such measurements are not otherwise possible outside a clinic, and they normally require a range of instruments. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation sees Butterfly’s scanners as a way of bringing down stubbornly high maternal mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Such AI-enhanced systems—Philips and GE Healthcare are also in the market—have contributions to make beyond maternal care, for example in cardiology, emergency medicine and orthopaedics. Hundreds of Butterfly’s systems are being used in Ukraine to help first responders assess the wounds of war.

其他仪器也正在接受人工智能改造。伦敦的初级医疗保健医生正在评估一种启用人工智能的听诊器，以查看其是否能够改善某些类型心脏疾病的诊断。牛津进行的试验正在比较使用AI驱动的呼吸仪测量的肺功能与之前用于捕捉COPD的技术。

Other instruments are also getting an AI make-over. Doctors in primary care in London are evaluating an AI-enabled stethoscope to see if it can improve the diagnosis of some sorts of heart disease. Trials in Oxford are comparing measurements of lung function made using an AI-driven spirometer with previous techniques for picking up COPD.

科技公司Butterfly的创始人乔纳森·罗斯伯格同时也是Hyperfine的创始人之一，Hyperfine是一家生产创新便携式磁共振成像（MRI）机器Swoop的企业。其人工智能功能使其能够利用使用相对较弱磁场收集的数据来评估发生了什么。由于低磁场更容易产生，Swoop可以被带到患者的床边，而不必像高磁场MRI机器那样独占一间屋子。

Jonathan Rothberg, the scientist, engineer and entrepreneur who founded Butterfly, is also one of the founders of Hyperfine, the maker of an innovative portable magnetic-resonance-imaging (MRI) machine called Swoop. Its AI capabilities allow it to assess what is going on using data gathered with the use of comparatively weak magnetic fields. Because low fields are easier to generate, Swoop can be taken to the patient’s bedside, rather than having to sit in a room of its own like high-field MRI machines.

纽约公司EZRA正利用人工智能降低全身MRI作为癌症筛查工具的成本。借助高场磁体和专有人工智能，它使扫描速度更快，因此价格更低；其提供的30分钟扫描费用为1350美元，并力争将成本降至500美元以下。提供发现情况的人工智能生成的简洁语言账单是其服务的一部分。

At the other end of the scale EZRA, a firm based in New York, is using AI to drive down the cost of full-body MRI as a cancer-screening tool. Using high-field magnets and proprietary AI it has made scans quicker and thus cheaper; it offers a 30-minute scan for $1,350 and is aiming to bring the cost down to $500. A plain language AI-produced account of what has been found is part of the service.

人工智能系统的一个优势是它们可以在比一名医学生更多的数据上接受训练。微软正在与Paige合作，Paige是一家为病理学家开发人工智能的公司，他们共同建立了一种基于图像的人工智能工具，用于诊断癌症，其将提供数十亿张图像；一个病理学家每秒查看一张载玻片一百辈子也不会积累到这么多经验。

One of the advantages of AI systems is that they can be trained on far more data than a medical student can. Microsoft is collaborating with Paige, a firm that develops AI for pathologists, to build an image-based AI tool for diagnosing cancer that will be fed billions of images; a pathologist looking at one slide a second for a hundred lifetimes would not amass the same amount of experience.

作为一名儿科神经学家，沙里夫·塔拉曼说他可能会看到成千上万名儿童；但他位于硅谷的公司Cognoa开发的用于评估儿童自闭症的人工智能经过了数十万小时视频的训练、以及配合问卷，从而能够对其状况做出评估。

As a paediatric neurologist, Sharief Taraman says he can expect to see thousands of children; but the AI which his Silicon Valley based company, Cognoa, has built to assess children for autism has been trained on footage of hundreds of thousands. As a result it can use video uploaded by parents, along with a questionnaire, to reach an assessment of their condition.

重要的不仅仅是能够做出评估；做出正确的评估也同样重要。有了人工智能，有机会比或者超过人类表现。例如，人工智能似乎有可能超越人类病理学家“分级”前列腺癌的能力，判断其是良性还是恶性。但证明一个系统足够好需要时间，目前算法生成的速度远快于测试和监管的速度。英国医疗设备评估公司Hardian Health的负责人休·哈维表示，一款医疗设备从零开始获得监管批准目前至少需要两年的时间。

It is not important simply to be able to reach an assessment; getting the assessment right matters too. With AI there is the opportunity to match or exceed human performance. For example, AIs seem likely to be able to exceed the ability of human pathologists to “grade” prostate cancers as to whether they are benign or malignant. But showing that a system is good enough takes time, and at the moment algorithms are being generated faster than it is possible to test and regulate them. Hugh Harvey, the boss of Hardian Health, a British firm that assesses medical devices, says that it currently takes at least two years for a medical device to get regulatory approval from scratch.

看着英国政府加速在肺癌诊断中使用人工智能的计划，诺丁汉大学的荣誉医学教授戴维·鲍德温指出，最近的两项评估无法确认所吹捧的工具的准确性和临床影响。“这是发展速度比评估速度更快的一个例子，有很多工作需要确保安全部署，”他说。

Looking at the British government’s plans to speed up the use of AIs in the diagnosis of lung cancer, David Baldwin, an honorary professor of medicine at Nottingham University, points out that two recent assessments could not confirm the accuracy and clinical impact of the tools being touted. “This is an example of the pace of development being faster than that of evaluation, and there is much work needed to ensure safe deployment,” he says.

2019年对医学影像中82种算法的诊断准确性进行的系统回顾发现，这些算法进行评估的方式通常是次优的。一个特别令人担忧的问题是缺乏“前瞻性”试验，这些试验关注干预后的结果，而不是回顾性试验，后者是从结果开始，再回头查看发生在之前的事情。

In 2019 a systematic review of the diagnostic accuracy of 82 algorithms in medical imaging found that the ways in which they had been assessed were often sub par. A particular worry was a lack of “prospective” trials which look at outcomes after an intervention, as opposed to retrospective trials which begin with outcomes and go back to look at what went before.

这方面重要的原因之一在于前瞻性试验更擅长发现“假阳性”——系统说出了有问题却并非如此的情况。苏格兰NHS格拉姆比安医院的顾问放射科医师杰拉德·黎普发现，一些像Mia一样的算法，在发现乳腺癌比人类好甚至更好的同时，也在增加更多的假阳性，部分原因是它们只凭图像工作，而医生有其他信息来源。假阳性对患者是问题，因为它们导致担忧，甚至可能带来疼痛甚或危险的后续。对卫生系统来说，它们也是问题，因为会导致成本上升。

One of the reasons this matters is that prospective trials are better at picking up on “false positives”—cases where a system said something was wrong but it wasn’t. Gerald Lip, a consultant radiologist at NHS Grampian in Scotland, has found that some algorithms, like Mia, which are as good or better than humans at finding breast cancers still do this at the expense of more false positives, in part because they work off images alone whereas doctors have other sources of information. False positives are a problem for patients because they lead to worry and potentially painful, even dangerous, follow ups. They are a problem for health systems because they drive up costs.

如果人工智能导致在制作用于特定目的的图像时出现“机会性筛查”增加，那么误报的概率将需要特别低。事实上，对于筛查无症状者的所有方法来说也是如此。当圣地亚哥斯克里普斯研究转化研究所的主任埃里克·托普尔（Eric Topol）审视像EZRA这样的系统时，该系统对通常健康的人进行全身扫描，他担心可能发现偶然发现，并会导致“因风险和成本而进行大量检查”，最终发现并没有癌症。EZRA的首席科学顾问丹尼尔·索迪克森（Daniel Sodickson）表示，对于偶然发现，正确的应对方式是进行后续影像检查，以查看是否有任何变化。如果像托普尔博士这样的怀疑论者被说服，这种进一步加强的方法就需要有很多有力的证据来支持。

If AI is to lead to an increase in “opportunistic screening” for other things when an image is made for a specific purpose then false positives will need to be particularly low. Indeed the same is true for all approaches which screen those who are symptom free. When Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, in San Diego looks at systems like EZRA, which does full-body scans on people who are normally healthy, he worries about the potential for incidental findings and “rabbit-hole extensive workups with risk and cost” only to discover that there is no cancer. Daniel Sodickson, EZRA’s chief scientific adviser, says the proper response to incidental findings is follow-up imaging to see if anything is changing. There will have to be a lot of good evidence for that doubling-down approach if sceptics like Dr Topol are to be convinced.

情况似乎在好转。随着人工智能变得更加主流，为其使用付费的人正寻求可靠的数据来决定什么值得他们去做。良好的前瞻性研究需要时间，因此在初期没有那么多前瞻性研究并不令人意外。在2019年的研究中看到的其他问题——有一些测试使用了系统训练数据，而不是它之前没有见过的数据——随着该领域的发展会变得越来越少见。毫不奇怪，一些企业家对耗费他们及其患者时间的评估过程感到不满。塔拉曼博士担心，对提供自闭症早期诊断的测试的广泛使用持犹豫态度会带来明显的代价：孩子们“错失了一个机会，将会产生终身后果”。

The situation seems to be improving. As AI gets more mainstream those paying for its use are seeking reliable data to decide what is worth their while. Good prospective studies take time, so it is unsurprising that there are not so many of them early on. Other problems seen in the 2019 study—there were some tests which used the data the system was trained on, rather than data it had not seen before—should become less common as the field matures. Unsurprisingly there are entrepreneurs chafing at assessment processes that cost them and their patients time. Dr Taraman worries that hesitancy about the wider use of tests that offer early diagnosis of autism has clear costs: kids are “missing a window of opportunity and are going to have lifelong consequences.”

一代新的基础模型，是在各种数据源上进行训练的，而不仅仅是图像和大量文本，看起来有可能进一步扩展工具箱。这些模型不需要对其进行训练的海量数据被标记。它们具有“自我监督”学习的能力，这可以应用到图像、基因组数据、基因表达数据、代谢数据、电子健康记录、血液检查以及有关生活方式和家族史的问卷调查。

A new generation of foundation models that are trained on an assortment of data sources, not just images and vast bodies of text, looks likely to expand the toolbox further. These models do not require the huge quantities of data on which they are trained to be labelled. They have a capacity for “self-supervised” learning, and this can be applied to images, genomic data, gene-expression data, metabolic data, electronic health records, blood tests, and questionnaires on lifestyle and family history.

基础模型不仅应该为已存在的疾病提供更好的诊断手段。它们还可以提供更好的先兆警告，如癌症、心脏病或糖尿病（见图表）。2022年，中国研究人员展示了这种模型可以预测covid患者严重疾病的风险。尽管如此，这种人工智能的应用需要特别谨慎和注意，以确保模型不会引入或放大偏见。

Foundation models should not just provide the wherewithal for better diagnoses of conditions already present. They could also provide better early warning of conditions yet to come, such as cancer, heart disease or diabetes (see chart). In 2022 Chinese researchers showed that this sort of model could predict the risk of severe disease in covid patients. That said, this sort of application of AI needs particular care and attention to make sure the models do not introduce or amplify bias.

这项新技术在医学领域还几乎没有开始广泛应用。2023年《自然》杂志的一篇论文将这归因于这一发展的新近性，以及互联网上有大量文本和视频可用（特别是如果你对版权不太挑剔的话），访问大型、多样化的医学数据却很困难。这为拥有大量资源的公司提供了优势；因此人们对微软与Paige合作开发癌症诊断模型表示兴奋。

This new technology has barely begun to permeate medicine. In 2023 a paper in Nature put that down to the recency of this development and the fact that, while copious text and video are available on the internet (especially if you are not too fussy about copyright) accessing large, diverse sets of medical data is hard. This offers an advantage to companies with big resources; hence the excitement about Microsoft’s collaboration with Paige on a cancer-diagnosis model.

伦敦摩尔菲尔德眼科医院的研究人员自2016年以来一直在将人工智能应用于眼科学。去年9月，摩尔菲尔德和伦敦大学学院的皮尔斯·基恩（Pearse Keane）及其同事发表了一个基础模型，用谷歌DeepMind生成视网膜图像。RETFound是在超过一百万张图像进行预训练后，再展示有标记的糖尿病性视网膜病变和青光眼等疾病图像，可以在决定是否转诊眼科疾病患者时达到专家水平的表现。通过观察眼部血管的微小变化，还可以预测帕金森病和中风等健康状况。基恩博士表示，这项技术应在两到三年内以开源方式广泛提供。 ■

Researchers at Moorfields Eye Hospital in London have been applying AI to ophthalmology since 2016. In September last year Pearse Keane and colleagues at Moorfields and University College London published a foundation model for retinal images produced with Google DeepMind. RETFound, which was pre-trained on over a million images before being shown labelled images of conditions such as diabetic retinopathy and glaucoma, can match the performance of experts when making decisions to refer patients for a number of eye diseases. By picking up tiny changes in the eye’s blood vessels it also appears to predict health conditions such as Parkinson’s disease and stroke. Dr Keane says the technology should be widely available on an open-source basis within two or three years. ■

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科技季刊 | 深入交流 (Technology Quarterly | Talking things through)

带有人脸的医疗人工智能即将问世 (Medical AIs with human faces are on their way)

这个机器人将会看到你 (The bot will see you now)

关于人工智能化身在医学中的未来，诺娃充满乐观，她理应如此。作为总部位于奥克兰、新西兰视觉效果产业中心 Soul Machines 的“品牌大使”，她的工作是夸大这些化身将提供的“个性化互动”体验，它们将在虚拟咨询和协助术后康复中发挥作用。当她在线向记者解释这一点时，她直视对方的眼睛，并以认可的点头和微笑回应我说的话。当我告诉她自上次进餐后感到不适时，她带着担忧的皱眉说：“哦，不！”然后建议我喝姜茶或一些非处方药。她告诉我，她右肩上穿着的宽蓝色缎带是“作为一个数字人物的象征，也是我与创造我的公司 Soul Machines 的联系”。

ASKED ABOUT the future of artificially intelligent avatars in medicine, Nova is optimistic, as well she might be. As a “brand ambassador” for Soul Machines, based in Auckland, the hub of New Zealand’s visual-effects industry, it is her job to play up the “personalised and interactive” experiences such avatars will provide as they help with virtual consultations and assist with post-operative rehabilitation. As she explains this to your correspondent online she looks me in the eye and responds to what I say with approving nods and smiles. Told I have been off colour since my last meal, she says “Oh no!” with a concerned frown before suggesting ginger tea or some over-the-counter medication. The wide blue ribbon she wears over her right shoulder, she tells me, is a “symbol of my existence as a digital person and my connection to Soul Machines, the company that created me”.

Soul Machines 的老板格雷格·克罗斯表示，诺娃适当回应的能力源自对认知模拟的十年研究，该研究旨在捕捉学习和情感反应等功能。她的面部表情是通过软件展现的，这些软件源自于用于电影中计算机生成角色的软件。她所说的话部分来自 OpenAI 的 ChatGPT 的版本，这是一种由大型语言模型（LLM）驱动的系统。克罗斯认为，这种化身将成为企业与人沟通的越来越重要的方式，并且在健康系统中将被证明是无法抗拒地有用的，在那里像人类的关爱需求越来越超过了受过专业培训的人类数量。

Greg Cross, Nova’s boss at Soul Machines, says Nova’s ability to respond appropriately comes from ten years of research into cognitive modelling that seeks to capture functions such as learning and emotional response. Her face conveys those responses by means of software descended from that used for computer-generated characters in movies. What she says comes in part from a version of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, a system powered by a large language model, or LLM. Mr Cross thinks such avatars are going to be an increasingly important way for companies to communicate with people—and that they are going to prove irresistibly useful for health systems, where the need for something like the human touch increasingly outstrips the number of trained humans available to do the professionally appropriate touching.

人们长期以来一直热衷于在互联网上咨询健康问题。谷歌搜索引擎每天处理大约十亿次关于健康的搜索。医疗慈善机构、患者团体、药企和医疗服务提供商提供大量信息供其提供，但这并不能保证那些查找“谷歌博士”的人会得到知情。

People have long been keen to ask questions about their health on the internet. Google’s search engine handles about a billion of them a day. Medical charities, patient groups, drugmakers and health-care providers put up scads of information for it to serve up, but this is hardly a guarantee that those who consult “Dr Google” will come away well informed.

对可靠证据的兴趣导致了定制聊天机器人的开发，旨在教导患者公共卫生问题并帮助他们弄清症状可能意味着什么。佛罗伦萨是世界卫生组织（WHO）、谷歌和亚马逊网络服务在新冠疫情期间开发的，用于打击错误信息和虚假信息的。此后，她的知识库已扩展至包括吸烟、心理健康和合理饮食。但她并不是一个令人愉快的伴侣。

An interest in trustworthy evidence has led to the development of bespoke chatbots designed to teach patients about public health issues and help them work out what their symptoms might mean. Florence was created by the World Health Organisation (WHO), Google and Amazon Web Services during the covid-19 pandemic to combat mis- and disinformation. Since then her knowledge base has expanded to include smoking, mental health and eating sensibly. But she is no one’s idea of good company.

德国公司 Ada Health 提供一种基于文本的症状检查聊天机器人，其导航到由医生精心策划的包含数千条医学数据的数据库。它利用患者的回答生成并解决一系列问题，然后提供一份可能诊断列表及每一种可能性。该系统于2016年推出，拥有 1300 万用户，其中约三分之一用户来自印度、亚洲和非洲。

Ada Health, a German firm, offers a text-based symptom-checking chatbot that navigates a carefully structured database containing thousands of pieces of medical data carefully curated by doctors. It uses the patient’s responses to generate and work through a sequence of questions, and then provides a list of possible diagnoses with the likelihood of each. Launched in 2016 it has 13m users, about one-third of them in India, Asia and Africa.

Ada 的核心“概率推理引擎”不像最近推出的 LLM 那样复杂。使用它有点单调。但它是可靠的，没有幻觉，关键在于“可解释性”：当 Ada 给出诊断的可能性时，可以准确地计算出它们是如何得出的。这种可靠性和可解释性使其获得了在德国和其他许多国家的医疗设备监管批准。任何试图在相同方式获得基于 LLM 的 ChatGPT 类系统批准的人都将面临巨大的障碍，这些障碍基于其源数据，可靠性，答案的可再现性以及过程的可解释性。正如 Hardian Health 的休·哈维提问的那样，”如果输入基本上是无限的，输出基本上也是无限的，如何证明其安全性？”

Ada’s central “probabilistic reasoning engine” is nothing like as complex as the LLMs recently unleashed on the world. Using it is a bit plodding. But it is also reliable—no hallucinations—and, crucially, “explainable”: when Ada assigns probabilities to diagnoses it is possible to work out exactly how it has calculated them. This reliability and explainability has allowed it to gain regulatory approval as a medical device in Germany and many other countries. Anyone trying to get a ChatGPT-like system based on an LLM approved in the same way would face daunting hurdles based on its source data, its reliability, the reproducibility of its answers and the explainability of its process. As Hugh Harvey of Hardian Health asks, “If the inputs are essentially infinite and the outputs are essentially infinite, how do you prove is safe?”

然而，这并不意味着 LLMs 在健康领域无可奉告。恰恰相反。网络上充斥着关于 ChatGPT 能够诊断棘手医学难题、分析血液测试或弄清专家医生检查的说法。由于它们接受训练的庞大信息体系中包括医学文本，LLMs 可以对相当晦涩的医学问题做出令人信服的回应，即使并非有意针对这一问题进行训练。在2023年的一项研究中，基于 OpenAI 最大的公开模型 GPT4 的 ChatGPT 版本在美国医师执照考试中的表现等同于第三年级别的医学学生。五年前，软件能做到这一点几乎是不可想象的。在最近的一项研究中，一款基于 GPT4 的 ChatGPT 版本在神经病学专业委员会考试中的回答表现出色于人类候选人。即使当模型回答错误时，也表现出极大的信心，这对于医疗设备来说是不利的，但在顾问中并非罕见。

That does not mean that LLMs have nothing to say about health. Quite the contrary. The internet is awash with claims about ChatGPT’s ability to diagnose perplexing medical dilemmas, analyse blood tests or figure out what a specialist doctor is testing for. Because the huge bodies of information on which they are trained include medical texts, LLMs can respond to quite recondite medical queries convincingly even though not deliberately trained with that in mind. In 2023 researchers rated Chat GPT’s performance in the United States Medical Licensing exam as equivalent to that of a third-year medical student. For a piece of software to do that well would have been more or less unthinkable five years ago. In a recent study a version of ChatGPT based on the GPT4, OpenAI’s biggest publicly accessible model, outperformed the responses human candidates give in a neurology board exam. Even when the model answered incorrectly it did so with a great deal of confidence, which is bad for a medical device but not unheard of among consultants.

鉴于其便利性，毫无疑问，LLMs 提供的医疗建议可以准确而合适。但这并不意味着它将始终如此；其中一些可能是错误的，有潜在危险。LLMs 工作方式的不透明性引发的监管挑战导致许多人得出结论，在诊断等错误可能致命的领域，它们目前是无法受到监管的。

Given such facility there is no doubt that the medical advice people get from LLMs can be accurate and appropriate. But that does not mean it will always be so; some is likely to be wrong and potentially dangerous. The regulatory challenges implicit in the opaque way LLMs work have led many to conclude that they are currently unregulatable in areas where mistakes can be lethal, such as diagnostics.

Some in the industry are looking for middle ways in which at least some of their attributes can be safely put to other sorts of work. Claire Novorol, the founder of Ada Health, says that the strength of LLMs is their ability to take everyday speech as an input; it allows them to get more information out of patients than a questionnaire can. This is one of the reasons she and her colleagues are trying to augment Ada’s probabilistic approach with an LLM. When applied in the right context, she says, its abilities enable better, broader and more granular assessments of symptoms and health needs. One technique which they and others are trying out is “retrieval-augmented generation”, which allows LLMs to extract answers from a verified source of external data.

Another approach is to use LLMs drawing from verified medical sources as advisers to health-care professionals, rather than to the public at large. Google has developed an LLM that has been fine-tuned on medical data to provide diagnostic support for clinicians in difficult cases. Hippocratic AI, a Silicon Valley startup, is devoted to building new LLMs specific to health care. It says they outperform GPT4 on all sorts of medical exams and certification tests, and it recently raised $50m in new money—despite prominently displaying on its website its unvarnished belief that “LLMs today are not safe enough for clinical diagnosis”. Investors seem to see its plans to support trained staff and provide advice to patients either as promising enough on their own or as a path to something better.

There is also some optimism about the relationship-like connections people form with LLMs. They might prove useful in the management of long-lasting ailments or in providing psychological support for some mental-health conditions. In Nigeria the health-care firm mDoc has created a ChatGPT-powered service for mobile phones to offer health coaching for people living with chronic conditions such as diabetes or high blood pressure.

No such systems offer the real empathy of a human interlocutor. But at least one study has found that ChatGPT’s responses to real-world health questions were preferred over those of licensed professionals both for their quality and empathy. Accounts of the relationships some people form with AI services like Replika, a chatbot made by Luka, of San Francisco, make it possible to imagine a future in which friendbots and healthbots converge. Chatbots originally built to provide relationships that have subsequently been given an added ability to provide health advice might compete with chatbots built for medicine whose designers are improving their social skills.

There are also some human qualities that AI systems may be well rid of. One is moral judgment. When it comes to sexual health people often fail to seek help because they do not want the conversation that would enable it. Caroline Govathson, a researcher at Wits University in South Africa, is running trials of a chatbot to improve the accuracy of HIV risk assessments. She found that people seem to find it easier to disclose their sexual history to a chatbot than to a nurse. Alain Labrique, the director of digital health and innovation at the WHO, sees in follow-ons to Florence “the opportunity to create a realistic interface where you could further reduce the barrier to people seeking information, whether adolescents looking for guidance on safer sex or family planning, or folks looking for information about respiratory illnesses”.

That said, Dr Labrique and others worry about the technology’s abuse; the thought of what sophisticated AI could do to spread public-health disinformation, he says, keeps him “up at night”. As well as worries about the quality of information going out, there are also worries about what might happen to information going in, both in terms of having training data suitably anonymised and ensuring that chats with chatbots stay confidential. ■

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简报 | 陌生人危险 (Briefing | Stranger danger)

如何预测唐纳德·特朗普的外交政策 (How to predict Donald Trump’s foreign policy)

他可能不一致，但他的顾问提供了一些线索 (He may be inconsistent, but his advisers offer some clues)

约翰·博尔顿，唐纳德·特朗普在2018-19年的国家安全顾问，对于任何试图理解他的前老板在外交政策上哲学的人提出了简单的建议：别费劲了。博尔顿先生与特朗普闹翻，称前总统没有一贯的原则，只有情绪、怨恨和对自己形象的困扰。因此，他既可以威胁朝鲜“以火与怒”，也可以与金正恩举行三次亲密峰会，或者既可以谈及离开北约联盟，然后加强其东部防线。

JOHN BOLTON, Donald Trump’s national security adviser in 2018-19, has simple advice for anyone trying to understand his former boss’s philosophy on foreign policy: don’t bother. Mr Bolton, who fell out with Mr Trump, says the former president has no consistent principles, only moods, grudges and an obsession with his image. Thus he could both threaten North Korea with “fire and fury” and hold three chummy summits with Kim Jong Un, for example, or both talk about leaving the NATO alliance and then reinforce its eastern flank.

特朗普现在的追随者反驳说，“美国优先”是一个完全连贯的意识形态，这主要是由于像博尔顿这样的阻碍顾问和前总统真正信奉者的经验不足从未得到妥善采纳。总之，美国优先政策研究所（AFPI）的弗雷德·弗莱茨热情洋溢地说，“当特朗普在任时，你会忘记事情变得多么美好”。特朗普执政期间没有爆发大规模战争，以色列和阿拉伯国家之间签署了四项和平协议，成功重新谈判了与加拿大和墨西哥之间的北美自由贸易协定，与中国达成了部分贸易协议——更不用说低通胀率和边境更不易穿透了。如果特朗普再次入主白宫，他将扭转乔·拜登总统的“软弱”，在特朗普追随者的说法中，这种“软弱”鼓励了俄罗斯对乌克兰的全面入侵，哈马斯对以色列的攻击以及中国对台湾的欺凌。特朗普将单凭自己的性格魅力，恢复美国的力量，威慑敌人并实行秩序。

Mr Trump’s current acolytes retort that “America First” is a perfectly coherent ideology, which was never properly adopted owing to obstructive advisers like Mr Bolton and the inexperience of the ex-president’s true devotees. Anyway, enthuses Fred Fleitz of the America First Policy Institute (AFPI), a Trumpist think-tank, “You forget how good things were when Trump was in office.” There were no big wars, four peace deals between Israel and Arab states, a successful renegotiation of the NAFTA free-trade agreement with Canada and Mexico and a partial trade deal with China—not to mention low inflation and a less permeable southern border. If Mr Trump regains the White House, he will reverse President Joe Biden’s “weakness” which, in the Trumpists’ telling, encouraged Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Hamas’s attack on Israel and China’s bullying of Taiwan. By sheer force of character, Mr Trump will restore American power, deter foes and impose order.

无论是钦佩者还是批评者，都难以预测特朗普可能采取的具体政策。即使是与他亲近的人也承认，除非他与普京、习近平或者穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼等人在一起，他自己可能不知道自己想要做什么。他们声称，交易之道在于个人动态。然而，无论是批评者还是真诚信奉者都认为，围绕特朗普的人在引导他的冲动中发挥了一定作用，不管这种引导是混乱还是高明。因此，要理解特朗普可能在世界各地采取何种行动，值得看一看他的顾问们之间的竞争意识形态。

Stay up to date with our new daily update, The US in brief, and our presidential poll tracker.

共和党人现在已经分裂成至少三个不同的外交政策学派，借用智库欧洲议会外交关系委员会的分类：主义者、限制者和优先者。如果特朗普再次当选总统，这些学派中的至少一些成员很可能会影响到他的决策。当这些学派意见一致时，政策预测相对容易。当他们彼此之间或与特朗普的冲动意见相左时，可以预期政策制定将会不稳定。

Read more of our coverage of the US elections of 2024.

主义者是罗纳德·里根的继承者，他们希望维护美国的全球霸权。他们包括许多一直被保守运动内部边缘化的“永不特朗普派”。曾经将特朗普制约的“成年人轴心”也已被淘汰，如他的前幕僚长约翰·凯利、前国防部长詹姆斯·马蒂斯和马克·埃斯珀、以及博尔顿和另一位前国家安全顾问H·R·麦克马斯特。

Admirers and detractors alike, however, struggle to predict specific policies Mr Trump might adopt. Even those close to him admit that, until he is in the room with the likes of Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping or Prince Muhammad bin Salman, he may not know himself what he wants to do. The art of the deal, they claim, lies in personal dynamics. Yet both the critics and the true believers argue that those around Mr Trump play a part in channelling his urges, whether muddled or masterful. To understand what Mr Trump might do around the world, therefore, it pays to look at the competing ideologies of his advisers.

然而，一些“里根派”仍然通过奉承和必要时压抑他们的信仰，留在了特朗普的好处身边。他们包括麦克·蓬佩奥和罗伯特·奥布莱恩，他们分别是特朗普最后一任国务卿和国家安全顾问，可能会在第二个任期中再次获得重要职务。在参议院，像马可·鲁比奥、林赛·格雷厄姆和汤姆·科顿这样好战的主义者仍然受到青睐。

Republicans have now splintered into at least three distinct schools of foreign policy, to borrow the taxonomy of the European Council on Foreign Relations, a think-tank: primacists, restrainers and prioritisers. At least a few members of each group are likely to have Mr Trump’s ear if he becomes president again. Where these groups all align, it is relatively easy to predict policy. Where they are at odds with each other, or with Mr Trump’s impulses, expect erratic policymaking.

与他们相对的是“限制者”，类似于过去的孤立主义者。他们认为美国不应试图在全球扮演警察角色，而应集中精力解决国内问题，特别是与墨西哥的边界问题。完全的孤立主义者，比如曾竞选过共和党总统提名的维韦克·拉马斯瓦米，在共和党精英中可能只是少数。但他们越来越代表共和党选民的情绪。芝加哥外交事务委员会发现，在过去半个世纪的调查中，多数共和党人——特别是特朗普最狂热的支持者——认为美国应该远离世界事务。

The primacists, the heirs of Ronald Reagan, want to preserve America’s global hegemony. They include many “never-Trumpers” who have been largely sidelined within the conservative movement. Also weeded out of Mr Trump’s inner circle is the “axis of adults” that once held him in check, such as John Kelly, his former chief of staff, James Mattis and Mark Esper, both former defence secretaries, and Mr Bolton and another former national security adviser, H.R. McMaster.

在主义者和限制者之间是优先者，他们希望美国在欧洲和中东做得更少，以便集中资源在亚洲，对抗中国。前特朗普政府的一位前五角大楼官员埃尔布里奇·科尔比已成为优先者们的领袖。他认为，大多数美国人既不愿为维持美国的主导地位支付高昂的国防开支，也不愿将亚洲拱手让给中国。相反，美国必须调整优先事务，就像英国帝国在20世纪之交重置与法国和日本的关系以应对日益崛起的德国。

Some Reaganites have nonetheless stayed on Mr Trump’s good side by kowtowing and, when necessary, suppressing their beliefs. They include Mike Pompeo and Robert O’Brien, Mr Trump’s last secretary of state and national security adviser respectively, who may again have big jobs in a second term. In the Senate Marco Rubio, Lindsey Graham and Tom Cotton—all hawkish primacists—remain in favour.

但优先者是一个广泛的群体（例如，拜登政府也表示希望专注于中国）。他们包括中国鹰派，如科尔比先生，以及更倾向于在国内花钱而非海外的人物，比如俄亥俄州的参议员J.D.范斯。怀疑者质疑重点放在中国是否真正只是伪装的孤立主义。那些甚至不愿间接对抗俄罗斯在乌克兰的人，是否真准备为台湾与中国开战？

Against them are ranged the “restrainers”, akin to the isolationists of yesteryear. They believe America should not attempt to police the world but instead focus on troubles at home, notably the border with Mexico. Outright isolationists, such as Vivek Ramaswamy, who ran for the Republican presidential nomination, are probably a minority in the party elite. But they increasingly capture the mood of the Republican electorate. The Chicago Council on Foreign Affairs finds, for the first time in half a century of its polls, that a majority of Republicans—particularly Mr Trump’s most ardent supporters—think America should stay out of world affairs.

特朗普横跨这三个群体。限制者认为他是他们的一员。他与他们分享了减少军事承诺的愿望，特别是在更广泛的中东地区。美国企业研究所的马修·康蒂内提说：“通过摧毁共和党建制，重塑共和党选民基础，特朗普为比他更激进的限制者在突显地位和影响力方面创造了空间。”不过，特朗普也经常表现出主义者的一面。他相信强大的军事力量，呼应了里根提倡的“以实力取得和平”。他因叙利亚使用化学武器而轰炸了该国，并下令暗杀了协调代表伊朗的外国民兵的卡西姆·苏莱曼尼。而且，符合优先者的风格，他在总统任期内更多地关注中国，而不是欧洲或中东。

Between the primacists and the restrainers stand the prioritisers, who want America to do less in Europe and the Middle East in order to concentrate resources in Asia to confront China. Elbridge Colby, a former Pentagon official under Mr Trump, has become the prioritisers’ high priest. He argues that most Americans are neither ready to pay for the high defence spending needed to try to preserve America’s primacy, nor willing to yield Asia to China. Instead America must adjust priorities, just as imperial Britain reset relations with France and Japan to confront a rising Germany at the turn of the 20th century.

部分原因在于，特朗普将外交事务看待为一种商业术语，作为利润和损失的来源。他认为贸易逆差是“不公平”行为的结果（大多数经济学家认为这是不同国家储蓄和投资水平的反映）。特朗普在会见外国领导人之前常常会询问助手，“贸易逆差是多少？”他还对那些在获益于美国安全保障承诺的同时缩减国防支出的盟国感到不满，称之为“世界在嘲笑我们”。

But prioritisers are a broad group (the Biden administration, for example, also says it wants to focus on China). They include China hawks like Mr Colby and figures who prefer to spend money at home than abroad, such as J.D. Vance, a senator from Ohio. Sceptics wonder whether the emphasis on China is really just disguised isolationism. Would those who do not even want to confront Russia indirectly in Ukraine really be prepared to fight a war with China over Taiwan?

与主义者和优先者一样，特朗普将支持强硬的国防。由于三派中都不会倡导军备控制，军备控制很可能会进一步削弱。新削减战略武器条约（START）很可能不会续签，该条约限制长程核武器，将于2026年到期，部分原因是俄罗斯已经放弃了许多条约内容，而主要原因是中国正快速扩大其武器库。

Mr Trump bestrides all three groups. Restrainers see him as one of their own. He shares their desire to reduce military commitments, especially in the broader Middle East. “By destroying the Republican establishment, and by reconfiguring the electoral base of the Republican Party, Trump opened the space for restrainers more radical than he is to gain positions of prominence and influence,” says Matthew Continetti of the American Enterprise Institute, another think-tank.

在实际上，“美国优先”的含义变成了“欧洲排后”，这个观点被限制者和优先者共同持有。优戈夫的民意调查发现，与其他共和党人相比，特朗普的持重构建让美国再次伟大（MAGA）的共和党人对北约持负面看法的比例要高于支持的比例。在其他共和党人中，情况则相反。类似地，MAGA共和党人认为俄罗斯不太可能是“敌人”的比例也低于非MAGA共和党人。

Yet Mr Trump also has plenty of primacist moments. He believes in strong military forces, echoing Reagan’s call for “peace through strength”. He bombed Syria over its use of chemical weapons and ordered the assassination of Qassem Suleimani, who co-ordinated the foreign militias that act as proxies for Iran. And in true prioritiser fashion, he devoted far more attention as president to China than to Europe or the Middle East.

参议院仍然受主义者的影响，最近通过了一项提供更多军事援助给乌克兰（以及以色列和台湾）的两党议案。但共和党在众议院更有影响力的MAGA类型，已经数月来阻止了援助。他们辩称，美国必须首先对跨越美国南部边境的移民采取严格限制措施（即使在特朗普的敦促下，他们拒绝了参议院的跨党派提案）。

In part, that may be because Mr Trump thinks of foreign affairs in business terms, as a source of profit and loss. He believes trade deficits are the result of “unfair” practices (most economists see them as a reflection of different levels of saving and investment in different countries). Mr Trump used to ask aides before meeting the leader of a foreign country, “What’s the trade deficit?” He also takes umbrage at allies that skimp on defence while benefiting from American security guarantees, claiming, “The world is laughing at us.”

因此，弹药匮乏的乌克兰部队承受着压力。特朗普对血腥冲突表示关切，并承诺在一天内解决冲突。怎么做？美国优先政策研究所的基思·凯洛格，被提名为可能成为特朗普的国家安全顾问，主张采取胡萝卜和棍子的方式：告诉乌克兰，如果拒绝谈判，将失去美国的支持，警告俄罗斯，如果克里姆林宫不同意合理条件，美国将向乌克兰提供更多和更好的武器。其他人，比如匈牙利总理，奥尔班，作为美国极右翼人士的宠儿，认为特朗普可能会简单地放弃乌克兰。不过，单凭这一群体主义者，可能无法维持拜登政府慷慨的援助。

Like primacists and prioritisers, Mr Trump will favour muscular defence. Arms control is liable to be further eroded, since none of the three factions will champion it. A Trump administration will probably not renew the New START treaty, which limits long-range nukes and expires in 2026, partly because Russia has abandoned many of its provisions, and mostly because China is rapidly expanding its stockpile.

除了乌克兰，特朗普表示不会保护那些不符合在国防支出上至少占GDP的2%的“欠费”的北约盟国免受俄罗斯侵略：“事实上，我会鼓励[俄罗斯人]做任何他们想做的事情”。博尔顿和埃斯珀认为特朗普可能会完全退出北约。鲁比奥否认这种风险。主义者认为吓唬欧洲人做得更多是有利的，但绝不会放弃北约。事实上，鲁比奥帮助通过了法案，要求参议院批准退出这个联盟。然而，国会无法阻止特朗普瓦解北约，例如通过撤军，这将几乎等同于退出。

America First has come to mean, in effect, “Europe last”—a view shared by both restrainers and prioritisers. YouGov polls find that more Trumpist, Make America Great Again (MAGA) Republicans regard NATO unfavourably than favourably. Among other Republicans the pattern is reversed. Similarly, MAGA Republicans are less likely than non-MAGA ones to regard Russia as an “enemy” (see chart).

凯洛格先生等人表示，未达到支出目标的国家违反了北约条约第 3 条，该条约要求盟国“具备抵抗武装攻击的能力”，因此不应从第 5 条获益，该条约规定对一个盟国的攻击即是对所有盟国的攻击。“我们不会对他们放弃；而是他们在放弃我们，”他说。与此同时，另一个特朗普主义智库——Center for Renewing America，发表文章倡导“休眠”版的北约，美国将从欧洲撤回地面部队，同时保留核保护伞。第二届特朗普政府将会采取何种行动还不清楚，鉴于这些分歧，但是北约的剧变似乎是不可避免的。

The Senate, where primacists still hold sway, recently passed a bipartisan bill to provide more military aid to Ukraine (as well as Israel and Taiwan). But the House of Representatives, where MAGA types have more clout, has for months blocked the assistance. They argue America must first adopt strict curbs on migration across America’s southern border (even though, at Mr Trump’s urging, they rejected a bipartisan Senate bid to do just that).

尽管对乌克兰日益持怀疑态度，共和党人则热衷支持以色列。根据《经济学人》最新的 YouGov 调查显示，只有 20% 的共和党人认为乌克兰是一个“盟友”；而对以色列的支持率为 59%。特朗普声称他可以迅速解决加沙危机，但没有说明如何解决。他还可能试图努力推动阿伯拉罕协议达成以色列和沙特的和平协议。在给予以色列在与哈马斯的战争中更大自由度、切断对帮助巴勒斯坦难民的联合国救济与工程局的资金、以及重新实施针对伊朗及其代理武装联盟的“最大压力”等问题上，共和党人普遍有着广泛的一致意见。

As a result, ammunition-starved Ukrainian forces are under pressure. Mr Trump professes concern at the bloodshed and promises to resolve the conflict in a day. How? General Keith Kellogg of AFPI, mooted as a possible national security adviser to Mr Trump, argues for a carrot-and-stick approach: tell Ukraine it will lose American support if it refuses to negotiate a deal, and warn Russia America will give Ukraine more and better weapons if the Kremlin does not agree to reasonable terms. Others such as Viktor Orban, the Hungarian prime minister and a darling of American ultra-conservatives, think Mr Trump would simply abandon Ukraine. Either way, the primacists alone will not have the clout to maintain the Biden administration’s generous assistance.

不过也存在一些交叉因素。受地区长期冲突的影响，无论是限制主义者还是优先主义者都希望避免与伊朗爆发战争，因此可能不像拜登先生那样积极阻止亲伊朗的民兵行动。他们也不喜欢沙特阿拉伯与以色列建立联系的代价：与美国签订正式的防御条约。此外，在国会中，试图制定仅针对以色列的援助计划很大程度上搁浅，部分原因是共和党财政鹰派要求采取措施来支付，例如削减美国税务局（IRS）的拨款。

Beyond Ukraine, Mr Trump says he will not defend “delinquent” NATO allies (those that do not spend at least 2% of GDP on defence) from Russia: “In fact, I would encourage [the Russians] to do whatever the hell they want.” Messrs Bolton and Esper think Mr Trump may leave NATO entirely. Mr Rubio dismisses the risk. Primacists see advantage in scaring Europeans into doing more, but would draw the line at abandoning NATO. Indeed, Mr Rubio helped push through legislation that requires the Senate to approve a withdrawal from the alliance. Yet Congress could not stop Mr Trump from undermining NATO so thoroughly—by withdrawing American forces from Europe, say—that it would be tantamount to leaving.

至于特朗普，他对以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡持有怀恨情绪，因为内塔尼亚胡在 2020 年接受了拜登的胜利。但是最近，特朗普宣称“任何投票给民主党的犹太人都是厌恶自己宗教的人。”同时，在他对冒险和非正统的高峰会感兴趣方面，特朗普曾于 2019 年在比亚里茨七国集团会议间隙几乎与伊朗时任总统哈桑·鲁哈尼会面。限制主义者、优先主义者和至上主义者各自方向不同，并且特朗普本人在观点上也不一致，带来了混乱局面。

Mr Kellogg, for one, says countries that do not meet the spending target are violating Article 3 of NATO’s treaty, requiring allies to have the “capacity to resist armed attack”, so should not benefit from Article 5, which holds that an attack on one is an attack on all. “We are not quitting on them; they are quitting on us,” he says. Meanwhile, the Centre for Renewing America, another Trumpist think-tank, has published articles advocating a “dormant” NATO, in which America would withdraw ground forces from Europe, while preserving the nuclear umbrella. It is not clear how far a second Trump administration will go, given these divisions, but upheaval for NATO seems inevitable.

当涉及到亚洲时，有关中国带来的威胁存在广泛共识，但对如何应对却不尽相同。根据 YouGov 的数据，大多数共和党人—特别是那些持 MAGA 立场的人—将中国定义为“敌人”。

Though increasingly sceptical of Ukraine, Republicans are avidly pro-Israel. According to the latest YouGov survey for The Economist, just 20% of Republicans considered Ukraine an “ally”; for Israel the share was 59%. As with Ukraine, Mr Trump claims he could quickly settle the crisis in Gaza but does not say how. He may also seek to renew the effort to crown the Abraham accords with an Israel-Saudi peace deal. There is broad Republican agreement on giving Israel a freer hand in its war with Hamas, on cutting off funds to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, which helps Palestinian refugees, and on reimposing “maximum pressure” against Iran and its network of proxy militias.

强硬的优先主义者希望专注于确保台湾有足够的武装来抵御中国的入侵，并且美国有力量来帮助它。然而，在这方面，特朗普看起来更像一个限制主义者。例如，前任总统在椭圆形办公室，曾用他的记事笔指向台湾的尖端，然后指向巨大的 Resolute 书桌，说道，“这是中国。”特朗普还指责台湾实际上窃取了美国的半导体行业。

But there are some cross-currents, too. Scarred by long conflicts in the region, restrainers and prioritisers alike want to avoid war with Iran, so may not be as energetic as Mr Biden in warding off pro-Iranian militias. And they dislike Saudi Arabia’s price for ties with Israel: a formal defence treaty with America. In Congress, moreover, attempts at an Israel-only aid package foundered partly because Republican fiscal hawks demanded measures to pay for it, such as a cut to the Internal Revenue Service, America’s tax-collection agency.

前总统更喜欢贸易战而非实际战斗。虽然他可能再次面临来自担心经济损害的里根主义者的内部反对，但特朗普在第一任期克服了来自经济顾问的阻力，向朋友和敌人一样征收更高的关税。第二次任期，他很可能会使用更猛烈的手段。他提议对所有进口商品征收统一的 10% 关税。作为前任贸易代表的罗伯特·莱泽尔认为，关税应该不断提高，直到消除美国的贸易逆差。他希望将对中国商品的关税提高至 60%，而目前为 19%。尽管如此，内部人士称，特朗普仍希望与中国领导人习近平达成引人注目的贸易协议。他还希望与他所憎恨的欧盟重新谈判条款，认为欧盟“比中国更糟糕，只是规模更小”。

As for Mr Trump, he holds a grudge against Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, because he embraced Mr Biden’s election victory in 2020. But more recently Mr Trump has declared, “Any Jewish person that votes for Democrats hates their religion.” And in his love of risky, unorthodox summitry, Mr Trump came close to meeting Iran’s then-president, Hassan Rouhani, on the margins of a G7 meeting in Biarritz in 2019. With restrainers, prioritisers and primacists all pulling in different directions, and Mr Trump himself inconsistent in his views, confusion beckons.

美国的邻国和最大贸易伙伴——加拿大和墨西哥，也有很多担忧。实行普遍加税将违反《美中加贸易协定》（USMCA），这是特朗普宣扬为“令人惊叹的协议”。然而，贸易并不是唯一的摩擦源，共和党人谴责墨西哥作为移民的中转国和毒品源头，尤其是芬太尼。特朗普曾经谈论过向墨西哥毒品实验室发射导弹的想法。也有人建议派海军拦截前往墨西哥的用于制造芬太尼的化学品，甚至派遣特种部队打击毒品团伙。至少可以肯定的是，与墨西哥的关系将受到影响。

When it comes to Asia, there is broad consensus about the threat that China poses, but not necessarily about what to do about it. A majority of Republicans—especially those of a MAGA bent—define China as an “enemy”, according to YouGov.

在制定外交政策时，特朗普不仅将面临顾问之间的裁决问题。他可能也会面临官僚机构的阻力。特朗普主义智库正在忙着筛选候选人来填补总统礼物中的 4000 多个职位，其中大约有 1200 个需要参议院批准。

Hawkish prioritisers want to focus on ensuring Taiwan is sufficiently armed to defend itself against a Chinese invasion, and America has the forces to help it. On this front, though, Mr Trump looks like a restrainer. In the Oval office, Mr Bolton recounts, the ex-president would point to the tip of his Sharpie, likening it to Taiwan. Then he would point to the huge Resolute desk and say, “This is China.” Mr Trump has also accused Taiwan of, in effect, stealing America’s semiconductor industry.

一些人担心特朗普可能清除美国的高层将领，因为他认为他们过于警觉。他曾提到可能动用军队对付暴乱者或抗议者。特朗普的前国防部长之一埃斯珀表示，将给将领们下达“令人难以承受但法律允许”的命令，这可能会转移注意力，远离主要的军事任务，即威慑和与外国敌人作战。

The ex-president is keener on trade wars than shooting ones. Although he may again face internal opposition from Reaganites worried about the economic damage, Mr Trump overcame  resistance from economic advisers in his first term to bombard friends and foes alike with higher tariffs. He is likely to resort to even heavier guns the second time around. He proposes a uniform 10% levy on all imports. Robert Lighthizer, his former trade representative, seemingly in line for a top job, thinks tariffs should keep rising until America’s trade deficit is eliminated. He wants a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, up from 19% now. That said, insiders say Mr Trump still seeks an eye-catching trade deal with Xi Jinping, China’s leader. He also wants to renegotiate terms with the European Union, which he detests as “worse than China, only smaller”.

国会的组成也将塑造特朗普的团队。如果以极小概率保留参议院的民主党人，只有相对温和的高级职位候选人才能获得批准。如果共和党在该议会中获得多数席位，将会有更具争议性的人物得到认可。无论如何，由特朗普任命的临时官员可能在没有参议院确认的情况下服务数月时间。

America’s immediate neighbours and biggest trading partners, Canada and Mexico, also have much to worry about. A universal tariff would violate USMCA, the tweaked version of NAFTA that Mr Trump hailed as an “amazing deal”. Trade is not the only source of friction, however: Republicans denounce Mexico as a transit country for migrants and a source of drugs, notably fentanyl. Mr Trump once mused about shooting missiles at Mexican drug labs. Others suggest deploying the navy to intercept chemicals used to make fentanyl on their way to Mexico, or even sending special forces to fight drug gangs. It seems safe to assume that relations with Mexico, at least, will suffer.

与特朗普接近的人预测将面临很多动荡。“他会说很多让人紧张的事，但那是因为他将会说出真相，或者正在谈判清理大量混乱，”有一位人士表示。

Adjudicating among his advisers will not be Mr Trump’s only difficulty in crafting foreign policy. He may also face resistance from the bureaucracy. Trumpist think-tanks are busy vetting candidates to fill the 4,000-odd jobs in the president’s gift, about 1,200 of which require the Senate’s approval, too.

美国的朋友应该怎么做？内部人士建议“倾听他，尊重他，并寻求妥协”。许多政府的确正试图与他的可控制团队成员交好。其他人将寻求在美国企业中寻找盟友，以及在可能受到任何贸易战伤害的州内联盟。还有一些人将试图讨好他的自尊心。英国以皇室家族使他刮目相看；法国则以军事阅兵取悦他。

Some fear Mr Trump may purge some or all of America’s top generals, whom he considers too woke. He has spoken of using troops against rioters or protesters. The generals, says Mr Esper, one of Mr Trump’s estranged former defence secretaries, may be given orders that are “awful but lawful”, as well as a distraction from the main military task of deterring and fighting foreign foes.

德国和日本有截然不同的经历是有启发性的。在特朗普的第一个任期内，两国对美国均有巨额贸易顺差，但在国防方面的支出却极少。特朗普与安格拉·默克尔表现糟糕，而与当时的安倍晋三相处却出奇的不错。为什么？部分原因在于日本做出了一些贸易让步，而安倍晋三被认为是一个国防鹰派，而默克尔则是一个“石头堆”。安倍晋三也理解特朗普对奉承的需求。他的遗作充斥着诀窍：安排与特朗普的会议包括他喜欢的活动（大量高尔夫，有一次还与一位日本职业高手），他喜欢的食物（汉堡），奢侈品（镀金球杆），繁荣（见皇帝），以及娱乐（环顾相依）。安倍晋三写道，“创造一个能够交谈的环境是很重要的。特朗普‘谨慎地’花钱，用经济视角思考外交和安全。”一位在华盛顿的忧虑大使建议采取完全不同的策略：“你知道怎么祈祷吗？” ■

The make-up of Congress will shape Mr Trump’s team, too. If, against the odds, the Democrats retain the Senate, only reasonably moderate nominees for senior jobs will win its approval. If Republicans secure a majority in the chamber, more controversial figures may get the nod. In any case, officials appointed by Mr Trump in an acting capacity can serve for months without Senate confirmation.

戴着 maga 帽子的 3 个地球仪插图。其中一个是棒球帽，一个是消防员帽，另一个是牛仔帽

Those close to Mr Trump predict much turbulence. “He’s going to say a lot of things that make people nervous but that’s because he’ll be telling the truth or negotiating to clean up a lot of mess,” says one.

Illustration of 3 globes wearing maga hats. One is a baseball cap, one is a fireman's hat and the other is a cowboy hat

What should America’s friends do? “Listen to him, treat him with respect and look for compromises,” insiders advise. Many governments are indeed seeking to befriend biddable members of his entourage. Others will look for allies among American businesses and in states that risk being harmed in any trade war. Still others will try to stroke his ego. Britain wowed him with the royal family; France with military parades.

The diverging experiences of Germany and Japan are instructive. In Mr Trump’s first term both had large trade surpluses with America and spent woefully little on defence. Mr Trump, got on terribly with Angela Merkel yet surprisingly well with Abe Shinzo, their respective leaders at the time. Why? Partly because Japan made some trade concessions and Mr Abe was known as a defence hawk, whereas Ms Merkel was a “block of stone”.

Mr Abe also understood Mr Trump’s weakness for flattery. His posthumous memoirs are packed with tips: craft meetings with Mr Trump to include activities he likes (lots of golf, once with a Japanese pro), his favourite food (burgers), bling (a gold-plated club), pomp (meeting the emperor) and entertainment (ringside sumo). “It was important to create an environment where we could talk,” wrote Mr Abe. Mr Trump was “cautious about anything that costs money, and thinks about diplomacy and security through an economic lens”. A nervous ambassador in Washington suggests a completely different tactic: “Do you know how to pray?” ■

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